Bleacher Report - Articles by Andrew Simpson

The New York Jets: A Look at 2008

Andrew Simpson — Fri, 20 Jun 2008 09:03:44 -0400

2007 Record: 4-12

Major Personnel Losses: Anthony Clement (OT), Erik Coleman (S), Andre Dyson (CB), Victor Hobson (LB), Justin McCareins (WR), Hank Poteat (CB), Sean Ryan (TE), Wade Smith (C), Marques Tuiasosopo (QB)

Free Agent Signings: Jesse Chatman (RB), Alan Faneca (G), Bubba Franks (TE), Calvin Pace (LB), Tony Richardson (RB), Damien Woody (G), Kris Jenkins (DT), Artrell Hawkins (S), Musa Smith (RB), Andre Woolfolk (CB), Cameron Worrell (S).

Draft Picks:

Round One: Vernon Gholston (DE)

Round One: Dustin Keller (TE)

Round Four: Dwight Lowery (CB)

Round Five: Erik Ainge (QB)

Round Six: Marcus Henry (WR)

Round Seven: Nate Garner (OT)

Schedule: (Prediction)

Week 1: @ Miami (W)

Week 2: New England (L)

Week 3: @ San Diego (L)

Week 4: Arizona (W)

Week 5: BYE WEEK

Week 6: Cincinnati (L)

Week 7: @ Oakland (L)

Week 8: Kansas City (W)

Week 9: @ Buffalo (L)

Week 10: St. Louis (W)

Week 11: @ New England (L)

Week 12: @ Tennessee (L)

Week 13: Denver (W)

Week 14: @ San Francisco (L)

Week 15: Buffalo (W)

Week 16: @ Seattle (L)

Week 17: Miami (W)

Offense

It's hard to criticize the Jets this offseason. They may be guilty of overpaying for some of their newly acquired players, but at least they went out and took steps to improve their team.

Be that as it may, the Jets have a myriad of problems to address after their 2007 season. Their biggest concern is the one they have yet to address. Their quarterback situation is still murky, with both Chad Pennington and Kellen Clemens competing for the starting role.

Whichever wins the QB battle should have far better protection than last year, when the Jets gave up 53 sacks. The Jets have upgraded their offensive line with guards Alan Faneca and Damien Woody, and should have far better pass protection than in 2007.

The Jets' passing game was mediocre in 2007, only generating 3,330 yards on 512 attempts. Chad Pennington's 68 percent completion percentage was the bright spot; however, his 9/10 interception-touchdown ratio was disappointing.

The rushing game showed some signs of life, with Thomas Jones rushing for 1,119 yards; however, he took 310 attempts to do so. With a far stronger offensive line this year, he should be able to achieve more yards per carry.

The receiving corps returns much the same as last year, and both Jerricho Cotchery and Laveranues Coles should look to improve on their 2007 numbers. With an inexperienced QB, it will be important that Chris Baker gets his contract sorted out, so that the Jets have a viable TE. Bubba Franks should also help in this regard. Look for lots of two tight-end formations.

Defense

The defense also received a boost this offseason. Calvin Pace and Kris Jenkins were brought in during free agency, and Vernon Gholston was selected in the first round of the draft.

The Jets' surrendered 3,154 yards through the air last year, and 2,156 on the ground. This year, however, they have strengthened the D-line and have assembled a formidable front seven.

With the two, new outside linebackers (Pace and Gholston), the Jets should be able to get significantly more pressure on opposing quarterbacks. The Jets only managed 29 sacks in 2007, but they should increase that figure this year.

With the additions to the secondary (Artrell Hawkins, Andre Woolfolk, Cameron Worrell), the pass defense should also be improved. They will also be assisted by an easier schedule.

Outlook

Look for the Jets to post a 7-9 record, with a significant improvement in their play. However, the play of their quarterback is going to be the issue that holds them back.

I feel that with their dependence on the running game, the Jets will struggle to score points. However, if the QB gets established early, and can manage the offense throughout the season, the Jets may be able to accumulate some wins.

I think they probably need another year to develop as a team and settle their offense, but this looks like a team that is building a solid base for the future.

Buffalo Bills—a Look to 2008

Andrew Simpson — Tue, 17 Jun 2008 07:58:25 -0400

2007 Record 7-9

Major Personnel Losses:

Sam Aiken (WR), Jerametrius Butler (CB), Michael Gaines (TE), Mario Haggan (LB), Leon Joe (LB), Jim Leonhard (S), Ryan Neufeld (TE), Peerless Price (WR), Josh Stamer (LB), Anthony Thomas (RB), Kiwaukee Thomas (CB), Larry Tripplett (DT), Al Wallace (DE), Jason Webster (CB), Shaud Williams (RB).

Free Agent Signings:

Courtney Anderson (TE), William James (CB), Spencer Johnson (DT), Kawika Mitchell (LB)

Draft Picks:

Round 1: Leodis McKelvin (CB)

Round 2: James Hardy (WR)

Round 3: Chris Ellis (DE)

Round 4: Reggie Corner (CB)

Round 4: Derek Fine (TE)

Round 5: Alvin Bowen (LB)

Round 6: Xavier Omon (RB)

Round 7: Demetrius Bell (OT)

Round 7: Steve Johnson (WR)

Round 7: Kennard Cox (DB)

Schedule: (Prediction)

Week 1: Seattle (W)

Week 2: @ Jacksonville (L)

Week 3: Oakland (W)

Week 4: @ St. Louis (W)

Week 5: @ Arizona (L)

Week 6: BYE WEEK

Week 7: San Diego (L)

Week 8: @ Miami (L)

Week 9: NY Jets (W)

Week 10: @ New England (L)

Week 11: Cleveland (L)

Week 12: @ Kansas City (W)

Week 13: San Francisco (W)

Week 14: Miami (W)

Week 15: @ NY Jets (L)

Week 16: @ Denver (W)

Week 17: New England (L)

Offense:

The Bills' passing game was clearly not their strength in 2007, generating only 2842 total yards as Buffalo rotated between J.P Losman and Trent Edwards. Trent Edwards showed some promise in games against Miami and Washington towards the end of the season; however, there are plenty of question marks regarding his ability to be a game winner at this level.

Some of the blame for the anemic passing game can be shared with the lack of a solid receiving corps. However, for the Bills to improve, Edwards must step up this season.

Buffalo retains their top receivers from 2007, and have added receiver James Hardy from Indiana, which should give Edwards another viable passing option, especially in the red zone.

The highlight of the Buffalo offense last year was the emergence of Marshawn Lynch, the rookie who rushed for 1115 yards on 280 attempts. Provided that all of his offseason drama stays in the offseason, he should be a force again, which should open up the passing game.

Buffalo ranked 15th in rushing yards in the NFL, but couldn’t transfer this success into touchdowns, as they scored an NFL lowest 20 touchdowns on the season. This suggests that their red-zone offense could do with a significant jumpstart, which James Hardy should provide.

Provided that the Bills can settle the contract dispute with Left Tackle Jason Peters and get him onto the field, the Bills should have a solid offensive line to run behind. Between Derrick Dockery, Jason Peters, and Langston Walker the Bills should have time to throw and to open holes to run through.

Despite the fact that it is only his second year in the league, Trent Edwards is facing a lot of pressure going into the 2008 season. He won’t have to dominate games and carry his team, but will need to be efficient enough that teams respect the passing game, and don’t simply key in on the running game.

Defense:

The Buffalo Bills’ defense was nothing spectacular in 2007, and will require some serious performance upgrades if the Bills wish to reach the playoffs. The Bills only got 26 Sacks in 2007, which ranked them 29th in the NFL.

A good pass rush can overcome nearly any offense, as we were all shown by the Giants in the Super Bowl, for the Bills to take the next step; they will need to get more pressure on opposing quarterbacks, and ultimately, more sacks. While the secondary was the weaker part of the defense in 2007, teams were able to gain valuable rushing yards and had far too much time to pass.

The linebacker corps will receive a significant upgrade, with Paul Posluszny returning from injury and free agent signing Kawika Mitchell joining the fray. John DiGiorgio should also provide some much needed depth at MLB, as he showed is ability last year with 112 tackles and two sacks.

The secondary received a much needed boost with the addition of first round draft pick Leodis McKelvin, who is expected to push Jabari Greer for a starting position.

Buffalo returns all of its starting secondary from 2007, and can only hope that the unit performs at a higher level with another year under their belt. Donte Whitner and Terrence McGee were solid performers; however, the Buffalo overall pass defense left much to be desired. McKelvin should provide some help in this regard with his size and intercepting ability.

Outlook

The Bills are a team that is hovering close to the playoffs. However in the AFC, wild card spots are hard to come by. It seems unlikely that the Bills will capture the AFC East title any time soon, and both the AFC South and AFC North both look to have more than one playoff team this year.

The Bills do have a reasonable schedule, but the level of their success is going to depend on Trent Edwards’ growth as a passer in the NFL.

Look for the Bills to post an 8-8 record, and to narrowly miss out on a playoff bid. This young team should gain some valuable experience, and provided that Trent Edwards emerges as a viable NFL quarterback and that the front office can retain the core of this team, they should continue to improve in 2009.

Bill Belichick and the New England Patriots' Trading Secrets

Andrew Simpson — Wed, 02 Apr 2008 13:23:29 -0400

There can be no doubt that Bill Belichick is one of the greatest NFL coaches of all time.

He may even be the greatest.

For the past seven to eight months, there has been a ridiculous amount of press given to the "Videogate" scandal and its potential ramifications.

However, if one looks at the trades of both players and draft picks that Belichick has orchestrated over the years, you have to admire the accumulation of talent in New England.

With three Super Bowls in four years and two very near misses, the Patriots have become one of the strongest franchises in league history. However, it is at this point that things start to get a little hazy.

Belichick and Scott Pioli have (rightly) been showered in accolades for the way in which they built this Patriots dynasty, but Belichick is now at a point where he transcends the sport.

In the same way Brady has become a celebrity independent of football, Belichick is now the biggest hero or villain in the greater sporting world.

Because of this phenomenon, every move that works out for the Patriots is attributed to Belichick. If Asante Samuel breaks his leg this year, Bill will probably be lauded for not resigning him.

The trades that were orchestrated last year that brought Randy Moss to New England, and also gained the number seven overall pick have received significant press over the past year.

When Randy Moss broke the touchdown reception record, Oakland was shredded in the press for releasing a hall of fame receiver for only a fourth round pick.

The 49ers also look like they were on the losing end of their trade with the Patriots, selecting Joe Staley with the 28th Pick, and giving the Patriots the seventh pick in this draft, where players like Vernon Gholston or Darren McFadden may be available.

The Miami Dolphins were also humiliated after trading with the Patriots, practically giving away Wes Welker only to see him become the league leader in receptions.

The consequence of these successful trades was to bring very talented players to New England without giving up very much in return.

However, this has unexpected ramifications. Teams may no longer want to trade with the Patriots, especially for such high profile players or draft picks.

If McFadden is still on the board by the seventh pick, I think it would be mutually beneficial for the Pats to trade for the Cowboys' two later first round picks. However, even the Cowboys are going to think very carefully about whether they want to trade with the Patriots.

For a team that has thrived and grown based on savvy trades, the very public nature of their lopsided trades is a potential stumbling block.

When coupled with their record-breaking season in 2007, it would not be surprising to see fewer and fewer teams willing to trade with the Patriots. Many will fear being taken advantage of.

Time will tell if this has any impact on the team and its success, but don't be surprised if the Pats find it harder to find trades that they like with other teams, at least for a while.

NCAA Football Tournament?: A Proposal

Andrew Simpson — Sun, 30 Mar 2008 15:48:21 -0400

To start things off, I am an Ohio State fan, and probably have less to gain from a Football Tournament than anyone.

However, after watching the insane upsets week after week in the 2007 season, I think it is difficult to justify the BCS format. By definition, with so many "upsets", doesn't this mean that maybe the rankings were wrong?

I personally didn't want Ohio State to get to the title game, as I felt that they would be better prepared for this year by playing in another Bowl Game, and not having to deal with all the criticism that they are now receiving.

As such, I am presenting my own format for a possible playoff format. It is somewhat controversial, and I am sure that plenty of people will take issue with some aspects of it; however, I also feel that it provides the best measure for determining a champion, and that it is also a giant step forward for the sport.

The entire concept is based around the conferences and their highest ranked teams representing that conference in the NCAA tournament. As such, we would need to streamline the conferences to fit this idea. With 120 Division One Schools, we would be able to have 10 Conferences with 12 teams each. Currently, College Football has the following conference alignments:

ACC: 12 Teams

Big 12: 12 Teams

Big 10: 11 Teams

Big East: 8 Teams

Conference USA: 12 Teams

MAC: 13 Teams

Mountain West: 9 Teams

PAC 10: 10 Teams

SEC: 12 Teams

Sun Belt: 8 Teams

WAC: 9 Teams

Independents: 4 Teams

Under my proposition, the schools that are independent (Notre Dame, Navy, Army, Western Kentucky) and the Sun Belt Schools (Arkansas State, Florida Atlantic, Florida International, Louisiana Lafayette, Louisiana Monroe, Middle Tennessee, North Texas and Troy) would be redistributed among the Big 10, Big East, Mountain West, PAC 10 and WAC, so that we will now be left with 10 conferences of 12 Schools.

I understand that on a strictly geographical level, this redistribution would be difficult; however I’m sure that other conferences could juggle Schools to some extent to achieve the desired end result.

As a result of the conference realignment, we are now in a position to properly seed the NCAA football Tournaments. The Premier Tournament "The Tournament of Champions" will consist of 16 Teams, the top two teams from each of the "BCS conferences" (ACC, Big 12, Big 10, Big East, Pac 10 and SEC) and the Conference Champion from the remaining four conferences. (C-USA, MAC, WAC, Mountain West).

The Teams will need to be seeded, and I recommend this be done by conference affiliation, so that teams from the same conference will not play each other until the Final.

Under this scenario, the 2007 tournament could have looked something like this, with the winner of each match up in brackets:

Round One

LSU vs Central Michigan (LSU)

Oklahoma vs UCF (Oklahoma)

USC vs Connecticut (USC)

Virginia Tech vs Illinois (Virginia Tech)

BYU vs Tennessee (Tennessee)

Hawaii vs Arizona State (Hawaii)

Ohio State vs Kansas (Ohio State)

West Virginia vs Boston College (West Virginia)

Round Two

LSU vs Virginia Tech (LSU) [Quarter Finals]

Oklahoma vs USC (USC) [Quarter Finals]

Ohio State vs Hawaii (Ohio State) [Quarter Finals]

West Virginal vs Tennessee (West Virginia) [Quarter Finals]

Central Michigan vs UCF (UCF)

Connecticut vs Illinois (Illinois)

BYU vs Arizona State (Arizona State)

Kansas vs Boston College (Kansas)

Round Three

LSU vs USC (LSU) [Semi Finals]

Ohio State vs West Virginia (Ohio State) [Semi Finals]

Virginia Tech vs Oklahoma (Oklahoma)

Hawaii vs Tennessee (Tennessee)

UCF vs Illinois (Illinois)

Arizona State vs Kansas (Kansas)

Central Michigan vs Connecticut (Connecticut)

BYU vs Boston College (Boston College)

Fourth Round

LSU vs Ohio State (Ohio State) For 1st Place

USC vs West Virginia (USC) For 3rd Place

Oklahoma vs Tennessee (Oklahoma) For 5th Place

Virginia Tech vs Hawaii (Virginia Tech) for 7th Place

Kansas vs Illinois (Kansas) for 9th Place

UCF vs Arizona State (Arizona State) for 11th Place

Connecticut vs Boston College (Boston College) for 13th Place

BYU vs Central Michigan (for 15th Place)

Obviously the above scenario is simply an outline, with rough predictions (e.g. Ohio State over LSU, Just Kidding.) However, there is potential for some blockbuster match ups throughout the tournament.The second aspect of the tournament is the playoffs for lower rankings. The teams that lost throughout the tournament would still play for rankings, to ensure we knew who was ranked 1-16 by the end of the tournament.

Note: I know that there is no way that there are four non BCS teams in the top 16 schools in the nation, however, in place of the bowl system, I feel that this is the most appropriate manner to qualify for the tournament.The follow up to this System is that we will be left with 104 teams that do not qualify for the post-season. The counter to this is to simply add 3 other 16 team tournaments.

The seeding for such tournaments is more difficult than for the NCAA Tournament of Champions, however I am confident that the Committee for each tournament will be able to do so in an agreeable manner. We now have 4 tournaments (Rose, Sugar, Orange and Fiesta, rotating each year) featuring 16 teams each, which will rank the top 64 Teams in the nation.

One of the main objections to a football tournament is that it will take too much time away from classes or will result in too many games being played. To combat this eventuality, we have shortened the regular season to 10 games, followed by 4 postseason games.

The Regular Season:

As explained above, there will now be 10 Conferences with 12 Teams in each. The SEC is probably the best example to use as it's method for determining the conference champion is similar to the one we are recommending. Each conference will be split into two Regions of 6 Teams. Each year, every team will play the five teams in their Region and three teams from the opposite region. This will result in the need for only two Non-Conference Games, which will not count towards the final standings, which has the added benefit of encouraging more competitive non-conference games, and also reducing the number of meaningless blowouts that we see every September.

Following this outline, the two teams that would have represented the SEC in 2007 are LSU (As Conference Champion) and Tennessee (as Conference Runner Up.) The seedings for the second, third and fourth tournaments will be based on final conference standings, for example, Michigan and Wisconsin would have represented the Big Ten in the Second Tournament in 2007.

Locations would be difficult to organize, however in the case of the first two rounds; conference champions would receive a home ground advantage. The major games of the tournament, Semi Finals and Grand Final would all be held in the same city. This would have the benefit of one location hosting three games over two weekends, with four teams’ fans descending on the city.

Well, I think that’s about all have to say on the subject, I know I have missed some points, and that there are certainly weaknesses in my system. However, I feel that the format outlined above does try to address most of the concerns that different parties have about the current football competition. There is the retention of the important regular season; the postseason is actually expanded, with the potential to host games in several new sites, while also retaining as many elements of the old bowl system as possible. However at the end of the day, the NCAA football champions will be crowned beyond a doubt, and there will be an increased opportunity to watch outstanding football matches, as opposed to some of the mediocre bowl games that are inevitably organized each year.

I hope that this article generates some discussion, and hopefully we can have some version of a playoff in college football in the future, while I know that the tradition and history of the game is crucial, I think that a compromise can be struck whereby the final product can be improved.

NFL Abroad: An Aussie Unravels the Mystery of American Football

Andrew Simpson — Thu, 27 Mar 2008 17:57:35 -0400

OK, I'm not going to lie.

American football is a tough game to get the hang of.

Especially coming from the codes of football we have in Australia.

Having grown up with Rugby League, Rugby Union, Australian Rules Football and Soccer, the concept of stopping for a "rest" between each play seems like a cop out.

However, if one takes the time to understand the concepts of the game, the strategies and nuances of offense, defense, and special teams, it is easier to understand why the game is so popular.

The first thing I noticed when first watching an NFL game is the sheer number of players in each team.

How could so many players be on a team when only 11 were allowed on the field at once?

It becomes apparent that this idea lends itself to specialization, which, in turn, leads to higher levels of performance. Obviously, the more specialized a person is, the better they can perform these specific tasks.

For example, I would rather have a brain surgeon operate on my brain, than have a normal clinic doctor do so. It then follows that a defensive lineman will perform better if he can focus on defense, rather than playing both offense and defense.

In addition to positional specialization, there are also situation specific players. I think the New England Patriots use these players particularly well, with third down runningbacks and pass specific linebackers playing important roles for teams.

This is something that I have found to be in stark contrast to Australian football codes, as we rarely see many situational substitutions, and certainly no offensive/defensive specialists.

The second thing that stands out about American football is the stoppage time between plays.

I understand that there is a play clock, however, compared to other football codes, it appears like a long time between plays.

The reason for this is simply that short explosive performances, which American football is geared towards, are far more entertaining than more aerobic, endurance performances.

Compare Soccer, where the players walk/jog for extended periods, with NFL, where a play is over in five or six seconds, all of which is at maximum effort.

While the stoppage between plays appears to be a negative aspect of the game, it allows us to view more explosive, entertaining football.

Play design is an aspect of the game that takes a long time to understand, and even after extensive analysis, it is difficult to fully comprehend until you have been involved with football for some time.

While my understanding of football plays is basic, I have come to appreciate the strategy component of the game, which gives the game a whole other dimension.

We have all heard how sports are 10 percent physical, 90 percent mental, well, American football puts this theory into practice.

The idea that football players are all cavemen with IQs smaller than their shoe sizes is in question when you consider the complexity of some of the playbooks including, pass protection, route-running, and coverage schemes.

The fact that American football fans turn a football game into an event is another part of the appeal that we rarely see at games in Australia.

While people often meet up at a bar before/after the game, there is no comparison to the tailgating that occurs in the U.S.

I saw a video of an Ole Miss (I could have the wrong team here) pre-game party in the "grove," and that struck me as an awesome atmosphere to turn the game into an event.

One of the criticisms of the game is that it takes too long. Three hours for a football game. Usually Rugby League and Rugby Union games are finished within 90 minutes.

However, as far as I am concerned, a three-hour football game is twice as good as a 90 minute game. Let’s be honest, in Australia, we watch cricket games that last for five days. Three hours is really not so long, after all.

As for the players, there can be no doubting the athleticism of the individual players.

As mentioned above, the specialization of positions allows players to focus on speed and strength, or whatever trait their position requires.

To see men who can run 4.3 second, 40-yard sprints, and others who can bench press 225 pounds 40-plus times is beyond impressive, it's mind boggling.

As such, I believe that the NFL produces some of the most talented athletes in the world, simply as a result of the nature of the game.

There are however some interesting rules in NFL that I have yet to fully comprehend.

1. The offense is rewarded for getting out of bounds.

2. There is no consequence for an incomplete pass.

While these two rules make sense in the context of the game, they are two of the more difficult rules to understand for newcomers, particularly when these newcomers have been raised on a diet of other football codes.

Finally, the most obvious difference between American football and the other popular football codes is the body armor gridiron players wear.

There is nothing like this in any other code, and it has (incorrectly) lead to assumptions that the NFL is not as "tough" as other codes.

Well let me tell you, the nature of gridiron allows for tougher hits, and, with the protective equipment that players wear, they are able to deliver even stronger contact.

I have played all major codes of football, and, despite wearing full pads and helmet, I have never been hit as hard as I was on the gridiron.

Consequently, I have found that it is difficult to learn the intricacies of American football via Madden and TV, although I expect almost any sport is.

However, I have realized that, if people take the time to understand the game and learn the complexities of the sport, it is a fascinating contest featuring extraordinary mental and physical attributes, with some of the best athletes and coaching minds in the sports world.

I now thoroughly enjoy the game and love to watch all levels of gridiron, and have found the strategic aspects of the game to rival the physical feats for maximum entertainment value.