Bleacher Report - Articles by William Del Pilar

Disappointing Fantasy Football Players and Emerging Receivers

William Del Pilar — Thu, 22 Oct 2009 20:05:01 -0400

KFFL is taking part in a weekly series of roundtable discussions with other Web sites – Fantasy Football Xtreme , Rotoprofessor , Junkyard Jake’s Fantasy Football Network , Lester’s Legends , Fantasy Pros 911 , Top Fantasy Football and the Football Jabber .

A question is presented every week, and all organizations give their answers with some detail. You should tune in every week; here is KFFL’s answer to their question entering Week Seven .

In two weeks we’ll be past the halfway point of the season. I’ve rounded up their questions and am hoping my take can also give you some insight and help you with your leagues. We are entering a crucial point at which you either make your playoff run or slowly lose interest in your fantasy teams!

When I’m losing, I enjoy being the team that ruins others’ playoff chances, so never quit, as it’s more fun to trash-talk to fellow owners about how you ruined their chance at the all-elusive title!

Among the midround players who have disappointed, who do you think owners should cut ties with and why?

St. Louis Rams QB Marc Bulger is a product of a high-powered Mike Martz offense. Once Martz left, so did Bulger’s numbers. Another quarterback who may or may not lose you a game if he can stay on the field. The team will look to upgrade this position in the offseason, if anything, because they can’t trust Bulger to stay healthy. Dump him if you still own him .
Tennessee Titans RB LenDale White came into camp in the best shape of his life. However, in the end I guess the team employed the bigger, slower, but harder-to-bring-down White more than the new version! A per-game average of 7-26-0.2 is squat when you remember by Week Six of last year he already had eight touchdowns. It’s time to dump him if you need the roster space .
San Francisco 49ers WR Josh Morgan was a mid-to-late round acquisition this year but posted only mediocre numbers the first five weeks. He has 22 targets, which translates to only 4.4 targets per game, and he has averaged 3-40-0.2. Entering this week, he has ceded his starting job to rookie Michael Crabtree . Dump him .
Two disappointing players who can’t be dropped but need to be mentioned:
- Seattle Seahawks QB Matt Hasselbeck ’s inconsistencies have shown me he’s only worth being a fantasy backup. Don’t cut ties with him but use him only as a backup! The Seahawks show up one week then get beat down the next. That’s the last thing you want out of a team whose quarterback you own. You need consistent points every week, and he does not provide that. Trade him or only use him as a bye week or injury fill-in player .
- Chicago Bears TE Greg Olsen supposedly is the next elite tight end. For all the bluster about the trade for quarterback Jay Cutler , Olsen has yet to produce the results the team was hoping for. I will say: Give him time. However, for now, Olsen has 35 targets for the season, an average of seven per game. His per-game average is 3-30-0.6, but let’s give him credit, as he has caught one touchdown pass in weeks four through six. He’s getting there, but a true disappointment so far. Many owners were able to forgo the position on draft day and grab a quality tight end off the waiver wire. Don’t believe me? I’ve seen players such as Heath Miller , Vernon Davis , John Carlson , Todd Heap and even Visanthe Shiancoe picked up. You can’t drop or trade Olsen, but I will say he should improve, so he is a buy-low candidate .

It's time to cut ties with White

Every year a handful of receivers emerge from obscurity to become fantasy relevant. Who are your 2 or 3 favorite surprise receivers for this season?

Minnesota Vikings WR Sidney Rice was one of a few receivers I highly coveted in drafts, and I believe what we’ve seen so far this year is merely the tip of the iceberg. His per-game average of 4-68-0.33 puts him at or near the top 30 among fantasy receivers so far. His play the last three weeks p uts him in the top 10. I do expect to see him with at least eight touchdowns before the season is done. Trade for him if you can.
Dallas Cowboys WR Miles Austin was a receiver I wanted to be high on and looked for everything positive to prop him up. However, a lackluster training camp hurt his value, and while I picked him up in a couple of leagues, his lack of play found him quickly jettisoned once the season began. However, he’s emerging now because of injury to Roy Williams (ribs), and his Week Six performance—15 targets, 10-250-2. This allowed Austin to usurp Patrick Crayton . I believe he can become a big-play receiver if he can stay healthy. However, quarterback Tony Romo has to get better protection to take full advantage of his abilities. Pick Austin up if you can.
Jacksonville Jaguars WR Mike Sims-Walker is a player many were high on, and after a slow start he has proven everyone correct. Over his last four games he has seen 41 targets and has translated that to average 7-100-0.75. Monster numbers for someone most claimed off the waiver wire! Barring injury he’s going to have a great season. However, he is injury-prone, so trading him at his highest value is not bad strategy if you have depth and can afford to lose him.

Sims-Walker is the real deal, but will he stay healthy?

I’ll answer a few more roundtable questions next week, but until then, good luck in this week’s matchups … unless we’re playing!

Just remember, it’s up to you to make sure the players listed are good fits with your league’s scoring rules. For other players and detailed breakdowns, check out KFFL.com ’s Waiver Wire and other articles . You can also check out my videos at http://www.kffl.com/static/video-archive.php .

Don’t forget, I’m a Tweeter and post what’s happening in a breaking or timely manner. I also point you to solid links that can help you win your leagues. Follow me at http://twitter.com/wdelpilar .

Do not leave fantasy questions for me to answer here. Please go to KFFL.com forums and my specific forum, Q&A with KFFL’s William Del Pilar , or ask me through Twitter .

Week Five Advice, Notes, and Players That Have Become Every-Week Starters!

William Del Pilar — Thu, 08 Oct 2009 19:15:04 -0400

It’s hard to believe we’re in Week Five, but for fantasy owners it means one month’s worth of trend data. We now have enough data to notice some legitimate trends. It’s important to follow them to sell high on some players and buy low on others while deciding who to release and who to keep. What did I see and notice from Week Four and earlier heading into Week Five?

Green Bay Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers showed us Monday night he could be one of the league’s best quarterbacks statistically and probably have more wins if the offensive line could keep him off his back! He has been taken down 20 times so far, which breaks down to five sacks per game. He’s four sacks “ahead” of the next quarterback, the Buffalo Bills‘ Trent Edwards. C’mon, man! Give Rodgers the protection he needs or consider your Super Bowl dreams lost!

Can A-Rod stay upright?

Washington Redskins running back Clinton Portis (calf, ankles) is still an adequate fantasy performer, but he’s done as a high-end fantasy back. You can’t waive him, nor can you bench him most weeks. What you need to do is be practical with him and look at him as no better than a No. 3, flex, or bye week or injury fill-in fantasy player. As an analogy, Bengals running back Cedric Benson is a must-play every week now. However, the first few weeks we looked at the matchups to decide whether to play him. Sadly that is the category Portis now falls into. Don’t expect anything more, and if you can trade him for something valuable, try to, because I believe he’ll get worse as the season progresses.

Kansas City Chiefs running back Larry Johnson is performing worse than almost anyone expected. Sadly, I did expect his current production but stupidly took him in one league, and as soon as I took him I knew I would regret it. The team is utilizing him as best they can in the first four weeks with 12, 28, 19 and 23 touches, respectively, along with 10 total red zone touches – but he isn’t producing! His yards-per-carry averages are horrific (1.8, 3.3, 2.0 and 2.9, respectively, in the last four games), and his yardage is pathetic with 47.25 rushing yards per game. At what point do we dump him? I was ready to this week until I realized he was still the best of the worst on the waiver wire for running backs. That is, his utilizations keep me from dropping him, but I don’t think he will improve much, if any. He’s a horrible fit in Kansas City, and the team needs to explore trading him for anything right now! The Cleveland Browns did a great job of trading baggage, and the Chiefs should, too.

Stuck with LJ?

Arizona Cardinals wide receiver Steve Breaston belongs in point-per-reception (PPR) lineups every week. He has 15 targets in the last two weeks of play, and it’s clear Cardinals quarterback Kurt Warner is not afraid to throw to the open receiver versus forcing it to Larry Fitzgerald. Breaston only has two red zone targets, thus the PPR recommendation. He’s a given as a No. 3, flex, or bye or injury fill-in fantasy player.

New England Patriots wide receiver Julian Edelman may have passed Joey Galloway on the depth chart, but his position as the team’s No. 3 wideout is not exactly titillating. He’s sharing time with Sam Aiken and in Week 4 had one reception and one target, while Aiken, despite only one reception, had five targets. Don’t drop Edelman yet if you’ve paid a bundle for him as I did in a high-stakes league. He’s still learning the game and may take a little while to be a viable No. 3, flex position, bye week or injury fill-in. However, if you’re in a basic, sign-and-release league instead of a bid league, you can drop him.

Oakland Raiders tight end Zach Miller (concussion) may become a casualty of the fantasy Turk for owners who need a body to waive! This has nothing to do with his play: The real problem is his quarterback, JaMarcus Russell, who’s becoming known as JaAwful Russell. He’s the league’s worst quarterback with his decision making and arguably the most inaccurate to play the game in the last 10 years! Despite six targets in Week 4, Miller only had three receptions for 33 yards. For the year, he has 20 targets, five per week. Only waive him if you have no one else on roster to drop. Right now he only has value as a bye week or injury fill-in because of his targets.

Finally winning me over

Minnesota Vikings quarterback Brett Favre is turning me into a fan … it only took 16 years! Why you ask? He’s finally playing like the quarterback he should have become over a decade ago. He’s not shooting from the hip – he’s playing with intensity on every play instead of trying to force the issue. To be frank, this past Monday night was the best I’ve ever seen him play for four quarters! Sure, laugh at me, but I’m just calling it like I see it. This is the Favre I can root for; the underdog, the savvy gunslinger, someone who I’d try to grab on every waiver wire he’s still available in. Yes, he is still available in some leagues! However, if you own him and someone offers the farm, you should consider it. I believe he has limited shelf life and will break down as the year progresses.

For other players and detailed breakdowns, check out KFFL.com’s own waiver wire and other articles. Regardless of what you use, it’s up to you to make sure the players or defenses listed conform to your league’s scoring rules.

Don’t forget, I’m a Tweeter and post what’s happening in a breaking or timely manner. I also point you to solid links outside the KFFL world that can help you win your leagues. Follow me at http://twitter.com/wdelpilar.

NFL Fantasy Week 5: LT, Massaquoi and Other Players to Pick Up

William Del Pilar — Tue, 06 Oct 2009 19:40:19 -0400

In an exciting Week 4, I went 7-0 in my fantasy leagues. It has been a good season for me so far and I hope to keep it going. I hope my blogs, Twitter and forum question-and-answer opportunities are helping you!

Keep the questions and comments coming; I enjoy them and use them to improve and to review what I’ve done to become a better fantasy player. Some players to keep an eye on or pick up this week:

San Diego Chargers running back LaDainian Tomlinson could be a great buy-low candidate. He only had seven carries this past week because the team fell behind so quickly. In the two games he has played he has looked sharp enough. He's not the LT of old, but sharper than the average running back.

I’ll be the first to state this: Do not believe you are getting a No. 1 fantasy running back, but a No. 2. A No. 3 fantasy running back is where he rates in statistical expectations.

Give it a shot and see if the LT owner will take a middle-tier player, possibly a No. 3 fantasy running back combined with a low-end, inconsistent No. 2 fantasy receiver that you can sell as an up-and-comer. Time to put the used car salesman jacket on!

Minnesota Vikings wide receiver Sidney Rice has been in position for a touchdown every week since the season started. His play is no fluke!

Bernard Berrian will probably become the top choice with receptions and Percy Harvin will vulture receptions and touchdowns from both, but I can see Rice being in position for a touchdown every game.

Rice saw eight targets this past Monday night with three red-zone plays. He has 25 targets for the season with six red-zone targets. Grab him if you can.

Cleveland Browns wide receiver Mohamed Massaquoi will be this week’s fantasy darling. I say that in a negative way as we’ve seen fantasy darlings every week and 90 percent of them go by the wayside.

However, our insider told us quarterback Derek Anderson has shown a connection with Massaquoi. We also knew the wideout was outplaying Brian Robiskie in the preseason.

While the jury may be out, the signs are positive for Massaquoi. As long as Anderson is the starting quarterback, he’s worth a flier. Just remember it’s only one game and it’s the Cleveland Browns, arguably the league’s worst team.

Massaquoi saw 13 targets in Week 4, Anderson’s first as a starter. Before that, he had six targets total in three games. I’m going to take a flier on him in a few of my leagues and those that need wideout help should, too.

Dallas Cowboys wide receiver Sam Hurd is someone to keep an eye on because he’s going to face the Kansas City Chiefs in Week 5.

Hurd replaces Roy Williams (ribs) when Williams is not in the lineup. Williams is questionable for Week 5 because of three bruised ribs and, obviously, his health will directly impact Hurd.

Let’s not make more out of this than necessary; Hurd would only be a one-week play as he saw five targets in Week 4, three of which came during a failed two-minute drill in the fourth quarter.

I hope this week we’ll find out why quarterback Tony Romo went to him over the other wideouts at the end of the game and decide if Hurd is worth a flier in deep leagues.

These Week 3 Free Agents May Still Be Available

William Del Pilar — Thu, 24 Sep 2009 17:15:52 -0400

Did you miss the first wave of free agent players to pick up and are now scrambling? I may not have the answer, but let’s take a look at some players that could possibly start for you as well as some depth players.

QB Byron Leftwich, Tampa Bay Buccaneers: The Buccaneers defense is horrible: sixth worst defending the pass, 282 yards per game; tied for fourth worst defending the run, 168 yards per game; and finally, second worst in scoring, allowing 33.5 points per game. That means Leftwich has to keep up with opponents.

Poor Bucs D = Leftwich throwing more

He is averaging about 46 pass attempts per game for 286 yards and two touchdowns per game. View him as a backup right now with spot starter potential. As long as the Bucs don’t give up on the season and decide to go with Josh Freeman.

RB Justin Forsett, Seattle Seahawks: Just keep an eye on Forsett if you’re in point-per-reception (PPR) leagues. Why, you ask? In Week 2 he had six receptions for 67 yards that included eight targets. That was much more productive than his rushing numbers of 5-35-0, despite the above-average 7.0 yards-per-carry average, thus the PPR reference.

Edgerrin James supposedly will eventually see an opportunity to supplant starter Julius Jones.

However, Forsett is the one with the numbers, and though we know this could quickly change, if you have the roster depth, stash him for a couple of weeks and see how this pans out. As stated, PPR leagues only.

WR Davone Bess, Miami Dolphins: What I find interesting about Bess: 10 targets and 10 receptions! He catches whatever comes his way, and even though for the season he is only 10-86-0, in larger leagues he may be worth a flier to see how he does over the next few weeks. He is not great value right now—just an efficient player.

However, in the end, if you can fill your roster with bye week or injury fill-ins (if you don’t have quality depth) like Bess, you are better off than the owner who has inconsistent players for depth. Only look at him in deep leagues.

WR Mike Sims-Walker, Jacksonville Jaguars: Sims-Walker is nothing fancy right now but has a season total of 6-106-1 that includes 10 total targets. However, I like him because starter Troy Williamson (torn labrum) is gone for the year and the team let wide receiver Nate Hughes go (team signed him to the practice squad).

In other words, they are short on receivers, and Sims-Walker is going to see several targets. He’s fragile, so there’s always concern regarding his health, but there are worse choices. He was an early sleeper by many analysts so don’t forget that.

For other players and detailed breakdowns, check out KFFL.com’s own waiver wire and other articles. Regardless of what you use, it’s up to you to make sure the player’s listed conform and are good fits with your league’s scoring rules.

Don’t forget, I’m a “Tweeter” and post what’s happening in a breaking or timely manner. I also point you to solid links outside the KFFL world that can help you win your leagues. Follow me at http://twitter.com/wdelpilar.

Fantasy Football Week Three: Players of Interest

William Del Pilar — Tue, 22 Sep 2009 21:23:01 -0400

Let’s take a look at some hot waiver wire pickups for you to target.

I have to say I’m burning up because I had New York Giants wide receiver Mario Manningham on all my waiver lists last week. However, he was never my top choice in my listings as I wanted to see how he would do in Week Two.

Needless to say he’s not a secret anymore. Go figure!

RB Tashard Choice, Dallas Cowboys

We now know that starter Marion Barber III (quadriceps) has a good chance to miss one or two weeks, despite recent reports saying he might play in Week Three. An absence by Barber would elevate Choice behind Felix Jones.

However, Choice is merely a temporary solution until Barber comes back, and Jones, in two weeks of play, has averaged 6.5 touches per game for 59 yards. He has zero receptions and one total touchdown. Choice is not a slam dunk but worth grabbing as Jones has yet to show he can carry a full load.

WR Mario Manningham, New York Giants

He’s this week’s fantasy darling and for good reason. He came on huge last week against the Dallas Cowboys with 10-150-1 that included 13 targets. That gives him 17 targets for the season, and he may have the coaches considering him as a starter. Take a flier on him in any league format or size.

WR Johnny Knox, Chicago Bears

The Bears have stated he has come in and quickly picked up the speed of the NFL game. That translated into a Week Two performance of 6-70-1. He has 14 targets so far this year. Pick him up and see what happens as it appears he has chemistry with quarterback Jay Cutler.

I must say this, Denver Broncos wide receiver Eddie Royal was a rookie last year with Cutler! Knox has greater value in point-per-reception leagues but larger non-point-per-reception leagues are viable for him as well.

WR Bobby Wade, Kansas City Chiefs

The Chiefs showed us this past week they will throw with quarterback Matt Cassel as their gunslinger (39 attempts). Wade for some uncanny reason was the team’s leading receiver with 6-72-0. A flier in point-per-reception leagues.

WR Julian Edelman, New England Patriots

This kid looked great, but he’s only an immediate add if you own Wes Welker (knee); if Welker is active, odds are Edelman won’t be. That and Edelman is a short-term solution until Welker comes back.

If you have the roster depth and want to take a shot, go for it, but realize odds are he will go back to non-starter status. For the record he went 8-98-0 with 16 targets.

For other players and detailed breakdowns, check out KFFL.com’s own waiver wire and other articles. Regardless of what you use, it’s up to you to make sure the players listed conform and are good fits with your league’s scoring rules.

I Have Some Fantasy Football Sleepers for You!

William Del Pilar — Thu, 10 Sep 2009 21:47:02 -0400

Some sleepers for the final draft weekend, the first week of the NFL. It’s here people, and I’m one happy camper. Some players I think you should target toward the end of the draft as low-risk/high-reward options:

New Orleans Saints WR Robert Meachem: Meachem has passed Devery Henderson on the depth chart and is the team’s No. 3 receiver. He is more talented than either Marques Colston or Lance Moore. However, being talented and showing it are two different things. This is his third year, he knows the offense, he’s now relying on instinct, he has matured, and both quarterback Drew Brees and the coaches say he had an outstanding camp and has taken a step forward.

Baltimore Ravens FB Le’Ron McClain: I think McClain is too talented not to be picked up toward the end of a draft. Ray Rice is showing himself to be the real deal, but I also believe McClain will see his short-yardage and touchdown opportunities. Willis McGahee does worry me because it’s a contract year for him and he shows up when he sniffs the potential for big money. However, he’s injury-prone. Rice needs to show he can handle the week-in, week-out pounding. In the end, why not take a chance on the 260-pound back who has power and agility? If he doesn’t pan out, just cut him.

Cincinnati Bengals WR Chris Henry: He’s having a great camp and quarterback Carson Palmer is calling him Randy Moss Jr. based on the talent he believes Henry has. I agree for two reasons: It appears as if Henry’s legal problems are behind him and he’s showing signs of maturity. I believe, with T.J. Houshmandzadeh gone, Henry can eventually supplant Laveranues Coles as the No. 2 for a couple of reasons. Coles is aging quickly and his health on an every-week basis is not a given. Henry also knows the offense inside and out; Coles is new to the offense and team. Take a chance and Henry could pay dividends.

Minnesota Vikings WR Sidney Rice: Rice is entering his third season and is finally healthy. He’s a great red zone target, and while he may not see a ton of receptions, he will be a consistent red zone threat. He worked in the offseason with Cris Carter and Larry Fitzgerald. They were supposedly brutally honest with him and he took their advice to heart. Let’s not forget two more things: (1) He was a project coming out of college, despite being a second-round pick, and should finally have a handle on the offense, and (2) He now has quarterback Brett Favre throwing to him.

Dallas Cowboys WR Patrick Crayton: This cat’s simply being ignored until the end of many drafts, and he’s locked into the No. 2 wideout job. Grab him and ride him for as long as you can. I believe quarterback Tony Romo will go to tight end Jason Witten most of the time, but he’ll also spread the ball around to the receivers versus keying in on No. 1 option Roy Williams. What do you have to lose? Regardless of what you think of Romo, when healthy, he can be an elite quarterback, and someone other than Witten has to catch the ball, right?

Take a shot on the Cadillac a little later in your draft

Tampa Bay Buccaneers RB Cadillac Williams: Of the three backs (Derrick Ward and Earnest Graham being the other two), Cadillac is the most talented. Take a flier on him, as he’s the No. 1 running back on the depth chart, and see what pans out. It’s tough to find running backs on the waiver wire and if he can revert to his old form, he could be a steal. Granted, the team’s quarterback and offensive coordinator situation are jokes, but he could be a solid injury or bye week play during the season. If not, dump him.

The magic of all these players is that you can get them late in a draft and if they don’t produce you can dump them without having lost much, if anything. Go for broke, good luck with your drafts, and let’s get it on!

Dallas Clark Better Than Tony Gonzalez for Your Fantasy Team!

William Del Pilar — Tue, 25 Aug 2009 20:54:01 -0400

I’m on my tight end kick right now because it’s such a key component in gaining an advantage in your league. That is, if you can find a consistent player that scores week in and week out, you’re at an advantage every week because odds are your opponent does not have that position as solidified.

With that, let’s take a look at Dallas Clark this blog, and in the next blog I’ll wrap it up with Tony Gonzalez.

Positives

Clark can stretch the field and make the tough over-the-shoulder catch.
He’s a big-play threat with soft hands and can line up anywhere. In essence, Clark is another tight end who plays like a receiver.
His role should expand with wide receiver Marvin Harrison now officially gone.
Last season he totaled 77 receptions and 848 yards, career highs. His touchdowns (six) were the second most he’s scored in his career.
He was the fourth most targeted tight end with 107 targets (100 targets in 2007). He was No. 1 in the red zone with 21.
Despite a perception of being injury prone he has been durable the last two playing 15 games each year.
He caught at least five passes in eight games last year.
In the last four regular season games of ‘08 he tallied 30 receptions, 335 yards and three touchdowns.

Negatives

He received only four goal line targets.
Despite two 15-game seasons in the past two seasons, he has yet to play a full 16-game season.
Teams may now focus on him despite the belief that Harrison’s departure will help him. Harrison’s loss could have a backlash effect.

My projections for a 16-game season:

(There is a high / low, but I just want to present the raw numbers)

Receptions: 72
Reception Yards: 823
Reception Touchdowns: 9

I view Clark higher than Atlanta Falcons Tony Gonzalez because everything is lining up for him this season. On the other hand, Gonzo is going to have to learn a new offense, is on a run-first team and is going to do a lot of blocking.

What are your thoughts? Agree or disagree?

Don’t forget, I’m a “tweeter” and post what’s happening in a breaking or timely manner. I also point you to solid links outside the KFFL world that can help you win your leagues. Follow me at http://twitter.com/wdelpilar.

Dustin Keller: A Lot of Questions, but Great Upside for Fantasy Football Teams!

William Del Pilar — Fri, 21 Aug 2009 12:00:09 -0400

Another tight end who makes a great No. 2, or if you want to gamble a bit, your No. 1, is the New York Jets' Dustin Keller. His average draft position is right around pick 125, Round 11 in a 12-team league.

That allows you to focus on another running back, a wide receiver or even a quality No. 2 quarterback earlier in your draft. Remember, it’s not necessarily about getting the highest producing tight end as much as getting a quality tight end.

Positives

He is similar in style to Dallas Clark, a proven fantasy tight end.
Offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer is not afraid to pass.
Keller is one of the few tight ends who can stretch the field.
In Weeks 10 to 17 he had 35 receptions for 388 yards — 4.4 receptions and 49 yards per game.
The team cut Laveranues Coles, effectively making Keller the No. 2 option behind Jerricho Cotchery.
He posted 48 receptions for 553 yards and three touchdowns despite starting only six games.
He saw six targets inside the 5-yard line.
He will play a prominent role this season.
In Weeks 10 to 13 he had 27 receptions – 6.8 receptions and 78 yards per game.

Negatives

There are massive questions at the quarterback position, which lead to questions about whether the Jets will have a consistent passing attack.
Keller is inconsistent and in Weeks 14 through 16 had only six receptions, 51 yards and zero touchdowns.
There is no quality depth, and Keller may be wear down as the season progresses.

My projections (There is a high/low range, but I just want to present the raw numbers):

Receptions: 66
Receiving yards: 772
Receiving touchdowns: 5

The differences between a Keller and, say, a Chris Cooley are the serious questions at the quarterback position and the fact that Cooley is proven whereas Keller is not. Don’t assume similar projections means equality in value. You want someone who’s proven and consistent and has fewer questions with the team surrounding him. Those are the issues with Keller.

What are your thoughts? Agree or disagree?

Jeremy Shockey: Risky, but Great Fantasy Football Draft Value!

William Del Pilar — Thu, 20 Aug 2009 20:47:38 -0400

I’m looking at tight ends, and I see some value picks in the middle and late rounds. One of them is injury-prone New Orleans Saints tight end Jeremy Shockey. He’s going with the 121st overall pick, the 11th round in a 12-team league. His potential in the Saints offense is tremendous, but before I get to my breakdown….

If you grab him you better make sure you grab someone who is injury free, as we know Shockey is as fragile as they come. I chuckle when I think back to seeing him in his first preseason game and how he ran over a defender in the secondary. We thought he was the toughest cat coming out of college. Turned out that was the farthest thing from the truth!

Positives:

Despite a lost season last year because of injuries (hernia and ankle), he still posted 50 receptions in 12 games.
He also missed most of the preseason last year because of injury, thus failing to develop chemistry with quarterback Drew Brees.
Last season he did not have any explosiveness because of his injuries, but he is now healthy.
In 12 games he was still tied for 14th among tight ends in targets.
He should have been able to learn the playbook completely this offseason.
He was working out with the team during the offseason, something he hardly ever did with the New York Giants.
He wants a new contract, and we know players who want big money play better than they normally do. Sad but true!

Folks have soured on Shockey so much that he presents great value

Negatives:

Shockey is fragile and has never played a full season.
The Saints have many weapons, including running backs Reggie Bush and Pierre Thomas as well as wide receivers Marques Colston, Lance Moore and (with my prediction he’ll finally step up) Robert Meachem.
There’s a chance Shockey is past his prime because of injuries; he’s entering his eighth season and he is 29-years-old.
Last year he had career lows in receiving yards (483 yards) and touchdowns (zero) and his second lowest output in receptions (50).

My projections (There is a high/low range, but I just want to present the raw numbers):

Receptions: 71
Receiving yards: 788
Receiving touchdowns: 5

I’m basing these numbers on a 16-game season. Don’t forget, he’s only averaging 14 games per season. Nevertheless, he’s worth a shot based on his average draft position, and I view him as a tight end with great upside.

What are your thoughts? Agree or disagree?

Fantasy Football Experts Draft: K-FAD II

William Del Pilar — Thu, 13 Aug 2009 20:39:22 -0400

I’m taking part in the KFAD II, a league that we’ll play out. It’s the second analysis draft KFFL has done this season. I love these drafts because after every pick, we require participants to write a short analysis on their picks. That means you, the viewer, get to read our thoughts on why we made the pick. I know you’re thinking, “What’s the big deal?” The big deal is that these writeups come shortly after each pick, which means you get a fresh and accurate look into each drafter’s mind.

I do have what I’ve termed a “chair” in this draft. I always had KFFL draft with a two-person team. The primary chair was responsible for the league with, the second chair being there to offer feedback on every pick. The chair also helps manage the team when it comes to waivers or if the primary chair can’t manage it for whatever reason. It’s a process that has worked well. My chair is the “Battling Canadian,” Bryce McRae. I’m not sure why I call him “Battling,” but at times he reminds me of a veteran prizefighter who’s seen his share of knockdowns. He just has that gritty look.

In this draft, I wanted to snag a couple of solid receivers early but to also remain on task and draft quality starters and quality running back depth. In the end, despite what many say, you still cannot find quality running backs on the waiver wire! Check out my blog on value-based drafting for my philosophy on running backs entering this season.

As always, feel free to post your comments and let me know if I’m on track. I’ll gather and post the rest of my picks early next week as the draft is just about wrapped up. Enjoy!

KFFL Fantasy Analysis Draft II

1:12) DeAngelo Williams, running back, Carolina Panthers

Here's my first back

Reason: Taking the safest running back on the board was our goal and that was Williams. Philadelphia Eagles running back Brian Westbrook (ankle) is “da bomb” when healthy, but this year that is a major worry of mine. Washington Redskins running back Clinton Portis has a lot of wear and tear, and I’m concerned about his ability to hold up at this point in his career. New Orleans Saints running back Reggie Bush simply looks great on paper, but that’s about it as he can’t stay healthy. In a nutshell I took Williams because of his health. I do have concerns about Jonathan Stewart, but he is not a model of health with a toe issue last offseason and an Achilles’ heel issue this offseason. He remained healthy last year because of the time share with Williams. I’ll bank on Williams having another successful campaign as the Panthers remain a run-first team and have a massive chip on their shoulder after the embarrassing beatdown they took in the playoffs.

Others Considered: Westbrook and Portis. Bush was listed too high in the rankings so his name was looked at but never considered.

Standards Set: KFFL projects 262 rushing attempts, 1,336 rushing yards, 13 touchdowns, 24 receptions, 188 receiving yards and one receiving touchdown for Williams.

2:01) Randy Moss, wide receiver, New England Patriots

Reason: We know running back-by-committee approaches are the new trend, and with wideouts flying off the boards in most drafts, I knew what I had to do. The Arizona Cardinals‘ Larry Fitzgerald and the Houston Texans‘ Andre Johnson were gone, which left me an easy choice. Moss scored 11 touchdowns last year with a backup quarterback who struggled early on in the season before finding his groove. The year before he had 23, and despite his age of 32 he has been healthy the last two seasons. This one was easy to make, and I like this pick more than the Round 1 pick of DeAngelo Williams.

Others Considered: Detroit Lions wide receiver Calvin Johnson, but we liked the team around Moss better.

Standards Set: KFFL projects 89 receptions, 1,335 receiving yards and 14 touchdowns.

3:12) Ryan Grant, running back, Green Bay Packers

Grant gives us a solid backfield base

Reason: No matter how you slice it with how “great” wide receivers are in today’s fantasy hobby, you cannot find quality running backs on the waiver wire. Thus, you better have quality starters and depth. I wanted another solid fantasy starter, and Grant was the best on the board. He’s not flashy or spectacular, but what I like about him: Despite his holdout and a nagging hamstring, he still carried the ball 312 times, he thrives in the Packers zone-blocking scheme, and I view his 3.9 yards per carry and five total touchdowns as direct results of his holdout and hamstring injury. For those that say he can’t catch, I won’t argue, but I know this: He only caught eight passes in the first three months of the season, but in the final three games he had nine. He also finished the final four weeks with 20-plus utilizations and a combined 102.5 yards per game. I expect better than average improvement this season.

Others Considered: Tampa Bay Buccaneers running back Derrick Ward and Green Bay Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers. We felt Ward would share time and is injury prone, while we thought Rodgers could fall to us in the fifth round.

Standards Set: KFFL projects 294 attempts, 1,264 rushing yards, seven touchdowns, 24 receptions, 130 receiving yards and four receiving touchdowns.

4:01) Vincent Jackson, wide receiver, San Diego Chargers

Reason: Receivers were flying off the board, and I wanted balance at both running back and wideout. I went with wide receiver whereas I normally stick to running backs or a top-tier quarterback. However, I felt I could still grab a great quarterback in the fifth round and running back committees allow me to hold off a round for my back. Last year Jackson had career highs with 59 receptions, 1,098 yards, seven touchdowns and an incredible 18.6 yards per catch, which led receivers with 50 or more receptions. Jackson can go vertical (he’s a former college basketball player) and caught 16 balls that went through the air at least 20 yards. He’s able to use his size and power to outmuscle smaller defenders, and he’s a huge red zone target at 6-foot-5, 230 pounds. He finished strong in December with 20 receptions, 395 yards and two touchdowns. Finally, he’s young enough (26) to improve and has increased his yards and receptions each of the last three seasons.

Others Considered: I kept looking at quarterback Aaron Rodgers and briefly considered Santonio Holmes, but felt he would last one more round. My chair, Bryce McRae, brought up Chad Ochocinco, but I liked Jackson better as the team around him has fewer questions.

Standards Set: KFFL projects 69 receptions, 1,125 yards, nine touchdowns and even some rush attempts, seven for 25 yards.

5:12) Tony Romo, quarterback, Dallas Cowboys

Reason: Watching quarterbacks Aaron Rodgers, Donovan McNabb and Philip Rivers go before my pick was brutal. I fully expected one of them to fall to me. Romo will provide the most consistency and explosiveness of those left. He’s a good athlete with a strong arm who can throw on the move from any angle. He just needs to stop making mistakes. The release of wide receiver Terrell Owens is addition by subtraction as Romo will not force as many passes Owens’ way to keep him happy. In fact, tight end Jason Witten, Romo’s favorite target, doesn’t drop passes like Owens does and is more of a No. 2 receiver. Speaking of last year’s numbers, Romo had a quarterback rating of 114.7 in the fourth quarter showing he stays strong throughout the game, and he threw for more yards per game last year than he did in 2007. Some highlights: He had six games of 300 passing yards and six games with three touchdown passes. In total, he had eight multi-touchdown games in 13 starts and averaged 265.2 yards passing per game. No. 1 wideout Roy Williams has a full offseason of the playbook under his belt, and while with Detroit he had three seasons of seven-plus touchdowns with subpar quarterback play. Don’t sell him short based on last year’s play.

Others Considered: Houston Texans quarterback Matt Schaub; however, he can’t stay healthy, having averaged only 11 games per season as a starter.

Standards Set: KFFL projects 3,865 passing yards, 27 touchdowns, 16 interceptions, 39 rush attempts, 109 rushing yards and one touchdown.

6:01) Jonathan Stewart, running back, Carolina Panthers

Reason: This one was easy. I needed to handcuff my first-round pick of DeAngelo Williams to the big man. If anything happens to Williams, Stewart becomes a stud in the making and, in his own right, is a legitimate No. 3 fantasy or flex position fill-in. Some of the positives I like about Stewart: He was durable last season despite having offseason toe surgery. Based on his sixth-round draft slot he is easily the running back with the most upside to outperform it, much like Williams last year. One positive is that he’s still learning the pro game. Remember, he came from a spread offense in college. There’s the potential for an even split depending on how the season goes, and he’s better suited than Williams to see goal line carries.

Others Considered: None

Standards Set: KFFL projects 227 attempts, 931 rushing yards, 13 touchdowns, 11 receptions, 94 receiving yards and one receiving touchdown.

7:12) Kellen Winslow, tight end, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Kellen Winslow: A steal in PPR

Reason: This was an easy pick. I planned on going tight end, and if Winslow was there, he was going to be the pick I made. The Bucs traded two draft picks, including a second-rounder for him, so he will be a focal point in the offense. The team will split him wide and put him in the slot as well as his normal tight end role. He’s also to be a focal point in the red zone. Remember, he’s a tight end who’s built like a receiver! Wideout Antonio Bryant will demand attention and should allow Winslow the opportunity to post No. 1 reception numbers. I view last season as a fluke, and Winslow did not have to deal with any offseason injuries – another reason I like him entering the year.

Others Considered: No one else was heavily considered as Winslow was the targeted player here. The Seattle Seahawks‘ John Carlson and New York Jets Dustin Keller were briefly looked at and dismissed.

Standards Set: KFFL projects about 71 receptions, 802 receiving yards and four touchdowns.

8:01) Donald Driver, wide receiver, Green Bay Packers

Reason: Another easy one here. I was looking for dependability with my No. 3 receiver before looking toward upside with the rest of my receiver picks. I also have upside already with my first two receivers. Driver has lost a step and may see fewer targets but had a franchise-record sixth 1,000-yard season last year. Quarterback Aaron Rodgers looks for him in the clutch as four of Driver’s five touchdowns came on third down. He runs great routes, is fluid and while he’s neither fast nor big, is able to use his veteran skills to make the tough catch. He also rarely misses a game. He also had 397 receiving yards in the last five games of the season. Finally, I don’t mind a 34-year-old veteran who can post 13.7 yards per reception and catches 64 percent of the passes thrown his way.

Others Considered: Miami Dolphins wide receiver Ted Ginn Jr., Chicago Bears wide receiver Devin Hester and San Francisco 49ers wide receiver Josh Morgan were discussed but never really considered. Driver was the most dependable of what was left.

There you have it, my first half picks in what should be a great league. What are your thoughts? Agree or disagree?

Don’t forget, I’m a “tweeter” and post what’s happening in a breaking or timely manner. I also point you to solid links outside the KFFL world that can help you win your leagues. Follow me.

LaDainian Tomlinson Should be this Year's No. 1 Fantasy Football Producer!

William Del Pilar — Tue, 11 Aug 2009 19:58:43 -0400

I’m creating my personal projections for the first time in about five years and my projections have never meshed with the rest of the industry. It’s one reason I have been successful: Combining proper projections, solid draft strategy, and waiver wire savvy have always been the keys to my and most other winners’ success.

That stated, whenever Ryan R. Bonini and I would draft a team, ridicule would follow when others analyzed our teams, especially at the wide receiver position. I expect that to continue with my belief that if LaDainian Tomlinson plays 100 percent injury free he will easily be this year’s top producing fantasy player.

Positives

When healthy, LT runs with great vision and power. He’s able to use his instincts and make tacklers miss. He’s finally 100 percent healthy!
Head coach Norv Turner has repeatedly stated he has no plans to lessen LT’s load. Turner plans on using him enough that Tomlinson will contend for the rushing title. Turner believes 320 carries is achievable.
Despite the expected load, the team will be careful with how many touches he receives.
The team has a solid enough offensive line to help him contend for the rushing title.
He saw 71 red zone utilizations (4.4 per game).
He is still a big factor near the goal line with 17 inside-the-five utilizations.
He has accumulated at least 10 touchdowns and 1,500 total yards every year since entering the NFL.
Despite sustaining various injuries, he has only missed one regular season game.
The team still needs backup Darren Sproles on special teams. He will not cut into LT’s carries as much as many believe. He’s undersized, and the playoff game against the Pittsburgh Steelers last year showed he cannot carry the load and is merely a complementary back.
It was embarrassing to LT that everyone knew he had to restructure his contract and the team considered releasing him. LT is a man who plays with heart and determination. He has a chip on his shoulder; he wants to prove everyone wrong. He also wants to break the all-time rushing record.

Negatives

He had his lowest output since 2001 (rookie year) with 292 carries, 1,110 rushing yards, 3.8 yards per carry, and 1,536 yards from scrimmage.
He had his lowest total touchdown output (12) since his rookie season (10).
He did not rush for more than 106 yards in any game and eclipsed the 100-yard rushing barrier only twice.
Quarterback Philip Rivers emerged as more than a game manager.
He faces the NFC East and Pittsburgh and Baltimore this year.

San Diego Chargers running back LaDainian Tomlinson" width="391" height="213" />

The top fantasy football points earner in 2009? LT, if he stays healthy

My projections (There is a high/low range, but I just want to present the raw numbers.)

Rush attempts: 316
Yards per attempt: 4.36
Rushing yards: 1,378
Receptions: 53
Yards per catch: 8.16
Receiving yards: 432
Rushing touchdowns: 15
Receiving touchdowns: 2
Fumbles: 1

I’m basing these numbers on Tomlinson playing injury free this season. They are in line with his normal production. Let’s not forget, he played hurt last year, with toe and groin injuries that affected him all year. This sapped his breakaway ability.

Would I draft him first overall? NO I WOULD NOT! Would I draft him after the first few picks? In a heartbeat! This season there are questions regarding every player in the first round. While Minnesota Vikings running back Adrian Peterson should be the consensus overall No. 1 pick, after that, you can make an argument for many players. That in a nutshell is why we play the game.

In my humble opinion, if LT remains healthy this year, it will not be shocking to see many fantasy champions with him on their roster.

What are your thoughts? Agree or disagree?

Is Maurice Jones-Drew worthy of the No. 1 overall pick in PPR leagues?

William Del Pilar — Tue, 04 Aug 2009 15:56:09 -0400

Many are mistaking the view I expressed in my video on Maurice Jones-Drew as one in which I’m saying he will see 300 rushing attempts. I’m not saying that; I’m just saying I won’t bet against it because I believe it is possible.

My breakdown of Jones-Drew:

Positives:

He was given a $31 million contract to be the man, and regardless of what anyone thinks, he will see most of the touches.
The signing of free-agent wide receiver Tory Holt will help stretch the defense, thus opening some room for Jones-Drew to run.
He has a nose for the end zone, with 40 touchdowns (including kick returns) over the last three years.
The offensive line is healthy and built for the running game.
Head coach Jack Del Rio wants to return to a pound-it-out offense.
Last year, he carried the ball 18 times with goal to go and scored on 10 of them.
11 of the team’s 15 touchdowns inside the 10-yard line last season went to him.

Negatives:

He has never had a 200-plus carry season in his career.
His yards per carry have dropped every year: 5.7 to 4.6 to 4.2 last year.
His fumbles increased from three combined in 2006 and 2007 to six last year.
He plays special teams, though one would assume those days are over beginning this year.

My projections (There is a high/low range, but I just want to present the raw numbers):

Rush attempts: 282
Yards per attempt: 4.46
Rushing yards: 1,258
Receptions: 49
Yards per catch: 9.5
Receiving yards: 466
Rushing touchdowns: 13
Receiving touchdowns: 1
Fumbles: 3

Jones-Drew is a legitimate choice for No. 1 except for the fact he has no shot of approaching 2,000 yards. He will probably not see anywhere near the 60-plus receptions he had last year.

As you can see, I don’t expect him to see 300 rush attempts, but with 282 attempts, he won’t be far off. In a high/low setting, he could cross that threshold.

I predict Peterson can make up the reception difference through his rushing yards as most leagues give 10 points per 100 yards. That is why, although I don’t mind seeing Jones-Drew in the top two to five, I don’t agree with those who are taking him No. 1 overall in point-per-reception leagues.

What are your thoughts? Agree or disagree?

Michael Vick Deserves a Chance For Redemption!

William Del Pilar — Thu, 30 Jul 2009 21:47:13 -0400

I’ll be the first to say it: I don’t care for Michael Vick and what he did. However, before you send the hate or I agree with you e-mails, please finish reading the blog.

It may not be manly to say this, but I’m a passionate dog lover because they give unconditional love and humans don’t. You come home and who’s there to greet you at the door every single time without question? Not your friends, not even your spouse, it’s your dog!

Non-dog lovers don’t understand this, but I don’t fault them. No one loves animals like animal lovers. It’s like your newborn baby. I don’t care about your newborn that looks like a pointed prune and, to be truthful, is more ugly than cute!

However, to you, he or she is the greatest baby since humanity began. I understand that. It’s your flesh and blood. You’re proud, as you should be, and I’m happy for you, but it’s your kid not mine.

Let me tell you a secret: Most people feel like I do, we just don’t say it and politely tell you how cute your kid is and glance at our watches knowing we’re stuck looking at pictures. We do this because we know how much you love your kid and how special he or she is to you.

My point isn’t to tell you your newborn is ugly, deep down you already know that. Yes, that last comment was just cute sarcasm, get over it! Regardless, I’m just being 100 percent honest—the only people who like looking at pictures of your kids outside your blood is you!

What does this have to do with Vick?

Easy, we animal lovers love our animals as much as you love your kids and we equate that love as strongly as you do. You’ll never convince us otherwise. We believe brutality towards animals like what Vick did is just as horrible as any brutality towards kids. You may disagree, but that’s how we feel.

Despite all that, I also believe MICHAEL VICK HAS SERVED HIS TIME AND HAS A RIGHT TO GO BACK TO WORK.

I also believe NFL commissioner Roger Goodell is well within his rights to protect the image of the league. Technically, Vick is under probation, so his freedom is conditional, which is why I believe Goodell is within his rights.

I’m happy Goodell is allowing Vick back in just as I was when St. Louis Rams defensive end Leonard Little was allowed to play years ago.

For those that don’t remember, Little killed a mother and had to pay restitution from his NFL wages. The NFL provided the biggest check and quickest way for Little to at least do something to try to make up his horrific decision to drive that day.

Back to Vick, he will have to pay back creditors and make right the error of his ways, just as Little was forced to pay restitution. He also has a chance to show us he is turning his life around and has changed.

I tweet a lot (@wdelpilar), and I love following the players because you get to see their playful and sometimes soulful side. I have this to say to them: Stop whining about Vick and his treatment. When I tweeted a reply to a comment San Diego Chargers linebacker Shawne Merriman made about Vick, I stated only Vick will be able to prove to us he deserves his second chance.

Not Merriman because he feels he should be given a chance, not me, not you, nor anyone else. Vick, through his actions, will show us if this decision was the correct one!

I’ve been accused of being judgmental, and I won’t argue that because anyone who accuses me is judging me and is no better. My point is that I’m always looking and hoping to change my opinion of someone because in the end, if we can all be the best human beings we can be, then the world will be a better place.

I don’t say that to say that. We live in the greatest country in the world, and until you experience a different country as a member who has lived there (not vacationed) you don’t realize the opportunities this country allows us. There is only one condition and that is to work hard. I have lived that experience.

To Michael Vick, I hope your actions show us you are changing and that’s what I’ll look for—not what your agent, friends or lawyers say! Remember this, you are a public figure and a role model regardless of what anyone says, because when a young kid sees you and emulates you, the person you represent is what they’ll emulate.

Don’t ever forget that.

Before I leave you, the controversial Jim Brown—love him or hate him, he’s the egotistical personality—had some words for Vick, which I feel are dead on. You can check it out at: http://www.sirius.com/politicaltalk.

Why Adrian Peterson Should Be the No. 1 Overall Pick in PPR Leagues!

William Del Pilar — Tue, 28 Jul 2009 21:11:20 -0400

Fantasy owners are discriminating against Adrian Peterson by assuming he isn’t good enough to be No. 1 in point-per-reception leagues.

I can’t argue the fact he does not catch many passes, but I look at the overall No. 1 as someone who can produce consistently, is proven, and has upside. Finally, there are as few questions as possible about his ability to post top-tier fantasy points.

Peterson fits the bill.

Some Items of Note during My Research

Last year he played his first full 16-game season (17 counting the playoffs) since high school—a possible sign that his body is maturing and able to handle the week-in and week-out grind of the NFL. A doctor once told me the internal bodies of young men don’t finish developing until their mid-20s, give or take a couple of years. Peterson is 24.
He increased his yards per carry from 4.5 in September and October to 5.1 in November and December.
He scored six touchdowns from inside the 10-yard line, counting the playoffs.
He had 10 100-yard games. Four of them came in the final five weeks of the regular season.
He had fewer than 76 yards rushing just once (Week Five).

Some Negatives That Can be Positives

He did not have one red zone target (pass). However, that just means he has nowhere to go, but up. Remember, he wants to improve and be part of the passing game, and the team wants the same. Backup Chester Taylor is in the final year of his contract and could walk, so it’s imperative the team improve this facet of his game.
He had only 28 targets in 2007, but increased to 39 targets in 2008. He needs to learn how to catch but also more accurate quarterback play.

My Projections

Rush attempts: 325
Yards per attempt: 4.73
Rushing yards: 1,537*
Receptions: 25
Yards per catch: 10.45
Receiving yards: 261
Rushing touchdowns: 12
Receiving touchdowns: one
Fumbles: four

He Has the Upside To Approach 2,000 Yards

There is currently no other back in the league right now with the potential to approach 2,000 yards.

Peterson's one real negative that does concern me, is that he runs upright and is thus prone to more injuries. Some believe he looks for contact, but I don’t; I believe he will not avoid contact. Either way, that is the only legitimate concern I have.

Peterson would be my overall No. 1 pick regardless of the scoring format because he got stronger as the season wore on, and come playoff time, that’s what I want out of my fantasy back.

Is it a gamble in PPR leagues? Maybe for some, but not for me, because I don’t expect Matt Forte or Maurice Jones-Drew to see 60-plus receptions. Jones-Drew needs to prove he can do it every down, every game, and Forte needs to show he wasn’t a one-year wonder. As for Michael Turner, the team has already acknowledged they want to lessen his load.

What Are Your Thoughts? Agree or Disagree?

A Quick Note on Value-Based Drafting!

William Del Pilar — Thu, 23 Jul 2009 21:24:23 -0400

I’m not going to write a strategy piece in this blog because KFFL has its own FREE PRESEASON GUIDE available. We have quite the library of articles and reports, so make sure to check that out after reading my blog.

I’ve been watching many drafts through Twitter and KFFL as well as checking them out in fantasy magazines. I agree, the stud running back theory is not as strong as it used to be. There is no doubt about it. You add the fact that there are always midround gems to take, such as DeAngelo Williams and Matt Forte last year. Just remember, there is no guarantee you’ll be the owner smart enough and lucky enough to grab the right one.

Last year, most owners took Carolina Panthers running back Jonathan Stewart over Williams in the middle rounds. Stewart was the popular pick to post better-than-average numbers, not Williams. When the dust settled Williams was the player with 1,515 rushing yards and 20 total touchdowns while Stewart had 836 rushing yards and 10 total touchdowns. Granted, Stewart had a solid season, but those who banked on him being the one with the big numbers banked wrong.

Most jumped on Jonathan Stewart, but Williams was a better value

I did not like either player last year, but where I valued them only left me with Williams as a choice because most had already taken Stewart. I would have grabbed Stewart myself but refused to reach for him as I watched him get drafted by someone else in every draft I was in. Because of solid draft strategy based on where I valued them and a little help from Lady Luck, I drafted the right one. It’s never a given that you will be able to grab the sleeper who turns into next year’s early-round pick.

Don’t forget to determine a base value—as used in value-based drafting—but remember, it’s not a strategy unto itself. There have been many who have believed that, and I have always taken pleasure in destroying them in leagues. It’s like taking candy from a baby! Value-based drafting is merely one part of your draft strategy, albeit one of the most important parts.

Let’s look at it from a common-sense approach. No matter how you slice and dice it, there are 64 to 96 receivers to choose from and, yes, a few top-tier players well above the rest. Regardless, even though the use of a running back-by-committee is increasing, it does not mean every team is going to have running backs sharing equal time. Don’t hold off too long when securing your running back corps, and I say this with good reason. The same reality holds true today that held true last year and every year as far back as I can remember. You cannot find quality running backs or impact running backs on the waiver wire. You can with wide receivers. You can even play the weekly matchup for your No. 3 fantasy receiver.

I’m not saying anyone is wrong in taking a wide receiver in the first round, I’m just saying don’t forget value-based drafting come draft day!

Around the League with Carson Palmer, Cadillac Williams, and More

William Del Pilar — Wed, 22 Jul 2009 01:38:36 -0400

I have yet to draft in a fantasy league, but my time is coming as training camp nears. I don't like drafting before August and prefer the week before the season starts.

I believe most of you should gear yourself toward that, and don't forget, drafting with your buddies in person is the best way to draft. Make sure you have enough grub, music and trash talk to make it fun.

Just be careful with boozing it up. We've all had our bad days or nights with our good friends Jack or Jim, so make sure they don't make you regret that team you put together.

Bengals | Palmer will be on a throw count in training camp

Joe Reedy, of The Cincinnati Enquirer, reports Cincinnati Bengals QB Carson Palmer says his elbow is 100 percent healthy. During OTAs and minicamp, the wide receivers said Palmer's passes had the same old velocity and zip.

He is going to be on a pass count during training camp, and will not throw more than 150 passes per day. As the offseason drills went on, Palmer's long passes appeared to be more consistent and crisper.

Bengals | Palmer provided feedback in offensive adjustments

Joe Reedy, of The Cincinnati Enquirer, reports Cincinnati Bengals QB Carson Palmer provided plenty of input to offensive coordinator Bob Bratkowski on the team's playbook.

While most of the changes to the offense have been centered around more emphasis on the running game, Palmer is still expected to air it out with plenty of three-receiver sets.

My Take: We have no clue about what to expect from Palmer. Based on his average draft position provided by Mock Draft Central, my favorite ADP site, he is going 90th overall, the 13th quarterback taken. That is the eighth round in a 12-team league.

I wouldn't want him as my No. 1 fantasy quarterback until I've seen him in action, and it's too early to take my No. 2 fantasy quarterback in the eighth round.

The fact he has had a hand in trying to improve the offense states a lot about the team's faith in him as well as his own commitment to winning.

However, the team took a hit when they lost receiver T.J. Houshmandzadeh, and that's my real concern. Hold off on drafting Palmer that early until you see him play regardless of what you think today. Training camp will settle his true value.

Buccaneers | Williams will participate in camp

Tampa Bay Buccaneers head coach Raheem Morris said during an interview that RB Cadillac Williams (knee) will participate in training camp and is in the mix to receive some carries this season.

My Take: I have always believed this is the greatest country in the world, because if you're talented and work hard enough good things WILL happen. To see Cadillac work as hard as he has to overcome not one but two devastating knee injuries makes my heart feel good—especially in a league where we know there are players just collecting checks.

Cadillac is going with the 208th pick on average, is the 68th running back taken and falls into the 18th round in a 12-team league.

However, the team is looking at Derrick Ward and Earnest Graham as their one-two punch. Both backs have a history of getting nicked up and hurt. If Cadillac can come back he could see some touches. Consider the quarterback position: The team would love to have rookie Josh Freeman light it up and show he can be a successful starter, even as a rookie.

We can all dream can't we? You add the immobile, underachieving Byron Leftwich and inexperienced, never-proven Luke McCown, and you know this team will run. I believe you can hold off on Cadillac because, barring injuries, if he does see consistent playing time, it won't come until later in the season.

Vikings | Allen getting annoyed with Favre's indecision

Sam Farmer, of The Los Angeles Times, reports Minnesota Vikings DE Jared Allen said he would be fine with free-agent QB Brett Favre (Jets) joining the team but is getting annoyed with Favre's indecision. "If we get Brett, then that's a bonus. But let's either get it done and get moving on with it or let it go. It's not so much that it's a distraction because we're professionals and don't really buy into that. But it's annoying," Allen said.

My Take: Nothing fantasy here, just a point that this is what the Favre saga has the potential to turn into: a locker room with disgruntled players. Remember, this is a team sport, and some of these players are close to having heard enough about how they need Favre for that elusive Super Bowl run.

Allen may be right in that it's annoying, but it's also distracting to the quarterbacks and receivers on roster. For the record, if you're drafting now, Favre is still solid value as the 24th quarterback taken and the 185th overall pick, the 16th round in a 12-team league. He's slowly moving up and once signed will probably make a big jump.

Jaguars | Fast fact: Jones-Drew's carries have increased

NFL.com reports Jacksonville Jaguars RB Maurice Jones-Drew's carries have increased in each of his three seasons with the team. Jones-Drew had 166 carries in 2006, 167 carries in 2007 and 197 carries in 2008.

Jaguars | Jones-Drew feels offense will be explosive this season

Vic Carucci, of NFL.com, reports Jacksonville Jaguars RB Maurice Jones-Drew feels the team's offense will bounce back in 2009, thanks to health and additions on the offensive line. "We're back to where we were in the beginning," Jones-Drew said. "When I first got (to Jacksonville), we were a powerhouse running attack, and we could block and do whatever we wanted to.

And with these guys coming back healthy and getting ready to play, it gets really exciting because I know we're going to be able to run the ball and throw it. It's going to be an explosive offense again."

Jaguars | Jones-Drew will have help carrying running load

Vic Carucci, of NFL.com, reports even though Jacksonville Jaguars RB Maurice Jones-Drew will be the focal point of the team's running game this season, he will likely share carries with the team's other running backs. Jones-Drew's relief includes RBs Rashad Jennings, Chauncey Washington, Alvin Pearman and FB Greg Jones.

"We have a boatload of guys that can play, so it's not just me," Jones-Drew said. "That's one thing that everybody has to understand. There are a lot of guys that can go."

My Take: Right now everything is pointing to Jones-Drew being, arguably, the top pick in point-per-reception leagues. Sure you hear about Chicago Bears running back Matt Forte and Minnesota Vikings running back Adrian Peterson; however, no one can argue Jones-Drew can't make his own claim for the top spot.

I still have yet to decide whom I would take No. 1 as I'm still working on projections, but he's a legit candidate. If the team can divide enough of the load to keep him fresh, he will be a force to reckon with.

I'm not concerned with his size as much as others are based on how he's built; he's short, stocky and powerful. While 208 pounds is not huge, it's not small for a running back when you look at Emmitt Smith, who weighed 210 pounds at the same point in his career.

Don't forget, I tend to post what's happening in a breaking or timely manner as well as point you to solid links outside the KFFL world that should help you win your leagues. Follow me at http://twitter.com/wdelpilar

Tweeters you should follow!

William Del Pilar — Thu, 16 Jul 2009 21:35:34 -0400

Those who read my blogs know I’ve come to enjoy Twitter. If you’re a fantasy football buff, here are some Tweeters I’ve come across, and these are just initial thoughts, as I myself am still new to being active on Twitter.

The three best out there right now who seem to be getting into and enjoying Twitter as well as breaking news:

Adam Schefter: @Adam_Schefter - I’ve knocked Schefter at times, and for those who believe I judge people too harshly, they’re right. We all do, as it’s human nature, and anyone who states otherwise is lying. However, I’m always willing and looking to change my opinion because people can surprise you, and Schefter has given good info since leaving the NFL Network. In the end, you can and should always keep an open mind! What I’m realizing: The thing with Twitter, you begin to get to know people a little better simply by following their conversations. Schefter is reporting and conversing via Twitter.
Pro Football Talk: @ProFootballTalk – Love him or hate him, Mike Florio has built a name for himself. He stays on top of the news, and though his analysis can be off at times, he reports the news in a breaking or timely manner, and that’s what fantasy players want!
Adam Caplan: @caplannfl - My friend Adam has worked as hard as anyone I know on his trade, and I’m proud to say I’ve seen him turn the corner from fantasy player and analyst to NFL analyst. He gets you the numbers of contracts, lets you know what’s happening and rarely misses anything. As I saw somewhere: Follow his Tweets and stay on top of the NFL!

The rest of the ones I’m enjoying and following:

Chris Mortensen: @mortreport - Now we all know who Mort is and how valuable his data is. Nothing needs to be explained here. I’m a huge fan of his and have been for years, as have millions of others.
ESPN NFL: @espnnfl - Not sure if they’re breaking news, but they have good links to articles about the news at hand.
Football Outsiders: @fb_outsiders - I’ve always been impressed with this group and how they put their numbers together. I’m just not always in agreement with how they interpret those numbers. A stats geek does not make a fantasy football winner, but that’s on all of us. Obviously I’ve missed with my own analysis at times. I enjoy and envy their work as they come up with statistical breakdowns I relish. I plan on reading their latest almanac and so should you! Maybe I can get them to send me a copy … LOL. Seriously, buy it!
Gregg Rosenthal: @greggrosenthal - I’ve always enjoyed his work as he’s a solid analyst and breaks things down from a very logical perspective. My type of writer.
Peter King: @SI_PeterKing - King doesn’t have much of a clue on fantasy football and admitted as such in a column last year, but his column at SI is great and I’m looking forward to seeing what he Tweets about.
Michael Lombardi: @michaelombardi - He has tons of first-hand experience with the NFL. I’m looking forward to seeing what he has to Tweet about, too. He Tweets on major events but nothing breaking.
Warren Sapp: @QBKILLA - He’s a conversationalist on here and talks to various players via Twitter. For now just interesting conversations to follow. Nothing more, nothing less, but you can pick up a lot of NFL players by following his Tweets.
Jamie Dukes: @jamiedukes - He’s like Sapp, a conversationalist, but he’ll give his take on a situation. I enjoy his Tweets. He’s another analyst I wasn’t too fond of until I started following him.
Rich Eisen: @richeisen - For those who remember, a few years ago I did fantasy segments on his show, “NFL Total Access.” He can be a bit of a smart aleck (in a good way). He always treated Ryan R. Bonini and me very well. He’s like Sapp and Dukes, right, a conversationalist with his Tweets, but he’s Eisen, and he can be funny at times. His account was hacked into recently and the hacker let the world know he was “horny.” The dangers of social networking!
Sports Business Journal: @SBJSBD - For those in the business of sports, you have to follow the trade publication. They’re solid reporters, and while it’s not fantasy related, it should be on your reading list if you’re in the sports industry. I read it weekly!

Make sure you follow the first three I mentioned along with my own Twitter account. I tend to post what’s happening in a breaking or timely manner and point you to decent links outside the KFFL world that should help you win your leagues. Follow me at http://twitter.com/wdelpilar.

Around the NFL with Terrell Owens, Tony Romo, and More

William Del Pilar — Wed, 15 Jul 2009 03:05:27 -0400

For some reason this season excites me, if for no other reason there are so many draft strategies that the running back position is mostly running back-by-committee. The news is gearing up, too, with Baltimore Ravens wide receiver Derrick Mason announcing his retirement this week, but I'm not sure we've heard the last of this.

The Brett Favre saga should wrap up shortly as well because if he doesn't get into camp with the Minnesota Vikings then kiss that team's Super Bowl future goodbye. Favre needs training camp; he has not had an offseason regimen program as he did two years ago (2007 season), and he has to develop some chemistry with his soon-to-be new teammates.

Who cares if the Vikings are tailoring the playbook around him? If he doesn't develop chemistry he's more apt to try to force throws and improvise more often than needed. Let's be frank here: The knock on Favre is that he'll lose the game come playoff time when he forces throws and improvises too much.

We're not talking fantasy scenarios here, but getting into camp on time will only help his fantasy value as well.

That's just the tip of the iceberg as the news continues to flow; QB Matt Cassel of the Kansas City Chiefs was signed to a six-year extension. It's getting started people.

For draft newbies, check out Mock Draft Central. They're my favorite average draft position (ADP) site.

Chiefs | Cassel contract details

Updating previous reports, John Clayton, of ESPN.com, reports the Kansas City Chiefs have signed QB Matt Cassel to a six-year contract extension worth $63 million, according to a source. The deal includes $28 million in guaranteed money. Cassel will receive $40.5 million in the first three years of the contract.

I always like it when a player is in a contract year, and that's no longer the case with Cassel. Instead of playing for next year, there's always a chance a player gets too comfortable after his big contract. Obviously this isn't the case with every player, but it's a positive when fantasy owners know a player is playing for a contract.

Cassel is the 14th quarterback being taken on average, and his ADP is 102.43, the ninth round in a 12-team league. That's too early for me. I look at Cassel as my No. 2 fantasy QB at best and, to be honest, would grab someone else like a Matt Hasselbeck or Brett Favre because they are on better teams.

Let's face it: No one expects the Chiefs to be good this year whereas the Seattle Seahawks and Minnesota Vikings are always division contenders.

Before leaving this topic, I want to say we look at contract-year players from a greed perspective, but wouldn't you look at your contract year as the year to step up if you haven't? I would, and every player does whether they're already playing at a Pro Bowl level or not.

It doesn't mean some players are giving less in previous years though some do. It's time to get off our soapboxes, people, in how we view them differently from us!

Bills | Is Owens ready for big season?

Chris Brown, of BuffaloBills.com, reports Buffalo Bills WR Terrell Owens averaged 86.5 receptions, 1,264 yards and 13.5 touchdowns in his first seasons with his previous two teams, the Dallas Cowboys and Philadelphia Eagles.

Those are nice numbers, but the Eagles and Cowboys are nearly always playoff contenders. I'm not expecting those numbers from Owens, especially when the Bills threw 14 touchdowns last year, 12 in 2007, and 19 in 2006.

You can't compare Trent Edwards to someone like Donovan McNabb or Tony Romo. More importantly you can't compare the players around those quarterbacks. Will T.O. improve that team? Yes, but will he see 13 touchdowns? NO!

T.O. is drafted on average with the 33rd overall pick and is the 14th wideout being taken. That's the third round in a 12-team league and way too high for me.

He has to learn a new offense, develop chemistry and overcome the wintry weather to post numbers that warrant that high a pick. Maybe he does it, but if he does, I'll let it be on someone else's roster.

Vikings | Jackson to demand trade?

Mike Lombardi, of NFL Network, reports there is speculation that Minnesota Vikings QB Tarvaris Jackson might request a trade if and when the team signs free-agent QB Brett Favre (Jets).

Why would the team trade Jackson away? He knows the offense, and Brett Favre is not a given to last a full season. He makes a great No. 2 quarterback: someone who knows the offense, can come in and, at least in theory, not lose a game.

Even more importantly, he can learn from Favre even if it's just by watching him. I like Sage Rosenfels better than Jackson long-term but not right now because he has to learn the offense as well as develop chemistry with his new teammates.

For that matter, Favre has to also, which makes Jackson that much more valuable. There's no fantasy value here, just my two-cents on a silly topic.

Ravens | Mason already having second thoughts on retirement?

During an interview on ESPNews, Baltimore Ravens WR Derrick Mason said he had been thinking of retiring since the end of last season. However, despite saying earlier today he is retiring, he left the door open on a potential return.

"Right now I'm 99 percent sure," Mason said. He noted he has to talk with the Ravens, but he does not think there is anything they can say that will change his mind.

He said his family has 97 percent to do with it, but noted he has to weigh everything involved, too. If things do change and he decides to play, Mason said it will be because he changes his mind.

I have to agree with Matt Schauf of RapidDraft.com. I saw his Twitter posting, @RapidDraft, which said this saga may not be over. Mason may indeed be done, but he's still the Ravens' best receiver despite being 35-year-old, 12-year veteran. This team is not far from being a Super Bowl contender either.

He also has been instrumental in helping QB Joe Flacco grow as a player on the field. He's the type of receiver a quarterback can count on for the clutch reception. We've all heard the tales recently of the late Steve McNair and how good a quarterback he was.

However, McNair is not McNair without Mason. He helped make McNair a better quarterback, and while McNair is not a Hall of Fame quarterback, he did take his team to a Super Bowl and Mason helped in McNair's growth as a quarterback.

For fantasy owners, losing Mason is the equivalent of losing an outstanding No. 3 fantasy receiver, a No. 2 in point-per-reception (PPR) leagues. Schauf comes up with a nice stat when he states Flacco with a healthy Mason completed 61.8 percent of his passes, and after Mason got hurt, completed 57.3 percent. His loss will hurt.

Look for WRs Mark Clayton and Demetrius Williams to be the starters barring the team signing a veteran. Remember they still have to deal with linebacker Terrell Suggs so there may not be the money needed to bring in someone like Arizona Cardinals WR Anquan Boldin or the Denver Broncos' Brandon Marshall.

Remember the team would not only have to shell out huge bucks but also give up draft picks. For a team that is built around the running game and defense, it would behoove them to first get Suggs under a long-term contract before considering trading for a top-tier receiver.

Cowboys | Romo-Williams relationship a work in progress

Tim MacMahon, of The Dallas Morning News, reports Dallas Cowboys QB Tony Romo and WR Roy Williams put in a lot of extra offseason work together. There were some encouraging signs of chemistry between the two during OTAs and minicamp, but there was also ample evidence that their relationship is a work in progress.

This is good news because fantasy owners who believe in Romo need to know he has more than just tight end Jason Witten to rely on. However, I'm concerned about the five-year, $45 million contract extension Williams signed.

Will he be hungry? It's a legitimate question because that is top-tier money and he has only eclipsed 1,000 yards once in his six year career.

That was in 2006: 82 receptions, 1,310 yards and seven touchdowns. Granted we're talking the Detroit Lions, but in comparison, Calvin Johnson in his second year on the league's worst had 1,331 yards receiving, 12 touchdowns and 78 receptions.

My point is simple: Johnson, at least for one year, showed that even on the league's worst team a top-tier wideout can produce top-tier numbers.

Redskins | Campbell ready for breakout season?

Washington Redskins TE Chris Cooley said he believes QB Jason Campbell is ready to emerge as one of the NFL's top quarterbacks this season. "Jason Campbell is so close to being one of the best QB's in the league; he will have a great year," said Cooley, who filled in for SI.com's Peter King during his Monday Morning Quarterback column.

First, this is a great article Cooley wrote. It will have you chuckling! Make sure you check it out.

However, don't be a chump, Cooley, and knock Trent Green. He represents blue collar America and how anyone can make it through hard work, buddy! I say that in jest as I've discovered many take me too seriously, and I'm not even married to you! I digress...

I would like to think Campbell is ready to emerge; he's entering his fifth season and second in the West Coast offense. You add the chip on his shoulder regarding the team looking to trade for Jay Cutler and there should not be any reason he doesn't produce.

Granted, two years is still a short time frame to learn the West Coast offense and succeed in the NFL. He'll still have some growing pains, but he should improve. He's the 23rd QB being taken, 184th overall, which is the 16th round in a 12-team league.

You can bet I'm taking a shot at him there if I'm still looking for a No. 2 quarterback, or No. 3 depending on the size of the league. Why not? I would rather have him than Matt Cassel only because he's on a better team offensively. I like Campbell's upside.

NFL | Rosenhaus says James will play this season

Edgar Thompson, of the Palm Beach Post, reports Drew Rosenhaus, agent for unrestricted free-agent RB Edgerrin James (Cardinals), said James will play this season but may wait to sign until training camps start and an injury forces a team to look to add another running back.

Seriously, where would you draft him? Obviously he'll have to sign somewhere first. I foresee him signing during training camp if someone goes down or if a team realizes what they have isn't going to get it done.

As silly as it sounds, why not back to Indianapolis as part of a running back by committee? I'm not a big Edge fan as he left for the money then whined when the team was losing in Arizona. That's right, whine, and anyone in the industry will tell you that. Sure no one likes to lose, but as professionals we have decisions to make.

I could have left KFFL years ago for a more lucrative job but stuck it out, and it paid off for me and almost paid off for James last year. Just remember the grass is not always greener on the other side people.

James' fantasy value obviously will be determined once he signs. In deep leagues, why not take a chance and draft him anyway? I would; you can always use him as your first cut if he doesn't sign.

Don't forget, if you're looking for breaking news updates that get to you faster than e-mail, as well as great comments from me, follow me on Twitter.

Around the League With Brett Favre, Michael Turner, and More

William Del Pilar — Thu, 09 Jul 2009 22:42:09 -0400

I've come to enjoy Twitter, and obviously those that know me know that I'm a big Facebook fan as well. Social networking, to me, is one of the easiest ways to stay on top of what's happening with sports faster than the mainstream news can provide.

It shouldn't be surprising if I reference these networks in my blogs from this point forward—at least until it wears off and the next greatest thing since sliced bread comes around.

Vikings | Trainer visits with Favre a second time

Chip Scoggins of the Minneapolis Star Tribune, citing the Star Tribune's Sid Hartman, reports Minnesota Vikings head athletic trainer Eric Sugarman traveled to Mississippi Wednesday, July 8, to check on QB Brett Favre (shoulder) and his surgically repaired right arm. It was Sugarman's second visit with Favre, as the two met about two weeks ago to go over some stretching exercises to help Favre in his recovery.

Two Vikings sources said Favre is now seven weeks removed from surgery and it was a complete success, which provides more evidence his signing with Minnesota may be imminent.

My Take: Let it end and just sign the man.

Seriously, with Favre healthy, as a fantasy prospect, he deserves a hard look. On average he's the 25th quarterback being taken in most leagues, 185th overall, the 16th round in a 12-team league.

I don't have to say it as we know that's great value.

His numbers from the first 12 weeks of the last season show he can still get the job done: 68.7 percent completion rate, 20 touchdowns and 14 interceptions. Expect him to move up, but if he's there, I would select him as a No. 3 quarterback at that point.

I think his days as a No. 1 fantasy quarterback are over, but never say never. Don't be foolish and take him as your No. 1! For you Favre fans, I saw a tweet from @chestees showing a cute Favre T-shirt; check it out at Chestees.

Browns | Quinn appears favorite entering camp

James Walker of ESPN.com reports Cleveland Browns QB Brady Quinn holds a slight lead over QB Derek Anderson (calf) in the competition for the team's starting quarterback job.

Quinn had a decent, albeit not spectacular, minicamp, while Anderson struggled most of the way through before missing the final two practices with a calf injury. The coaching staff, however, will not make any premature decisions. They will wait until both quarterbacks perform in preseason games, so it is still very much an open competition.

My Take: I fully expect Quinn to win this battle. As I've said before, the team invested a first-round pick in him, the fans are screaming for him, and it's a new regime with no ties to any player.

We should also begin to look at Anderson as a nice story and player who may have had a career year, playing beyond expectations, two years ago. There is a reason he was a sixth-round draft pick. His career role may be one of a quality backup.

Today, in this economy, that's not a bad gig. Look, it got Quinn an endorsement as noted by @Duzz14:

"Brady Quinn gets huge endorsement from Staples, due to exceptional skills he demonstrated on the field at holding a clip board."

Hilarious!

I'm kidding with that, but seriously, only consider Quinn as your backup QB entering the season. On average he's the 29th quarterback being drafted, going 207th overall, which is the 18th round in a 12-team league. You can take him as your No. 3 to be truthful.

Falcons | Turner preparing for lots of carries

J. Michael Moore of AtlantaFalcons.com reports Atlanta Falcons RB Michael Turner, who had 376 carries last season, said he is preparing for another heavy workload this season.

"Treat every week like it's Week 1," Turner said when asked about taking care of his body and getting ready for so many carries. "Don't take anything for granted. Make sure your body is right and fresh every week. If you don't do it at the beginning of the season then you're going to feel the effects later on the year."

My Take: I was tweeting with @GBGinny, and we were discussing the belief that some have about Turner being overworked last year and that he's due for a down year because of his age and wear and tear over the years.

That could be true, but I'm not buying it.

I have firsthand experience in the military with cases in which it's age versus miles on your wheels, and age is not a factor as much as tread left. Don't believe me? History has shown this to be true in the NFL as well.

Prior to last year, Turner had averaged 57 carries his first four seasons in the league. At 27, his legs are as fresh as any other player's, including those of Matt Forte, who is being selected ahead of him.

I'm sure you've figured out: I don't buy that take. I agree with my good friends Dan and Kelly Grogan of Athlon Sports in one respect. @AthlonFantasyFB:

"We're in Rapid Draft's mock. Took Forte at No. 3 (PPR league), but can't believe Michael Turner lasted until late in the first round!"

I'm not a Forte fan and wouldn't take him that high, but I agree with their take on Turner lasting so long.

Broncos | McDaniels has high hopes for Moreno

Bill Williamson of ESPN.com reports Denver Broncos head coach Josh McDaniels envisions RB Knowshon Moreno as a three-down back.

My Take: The New England Patriots have a history of having a running back by committee, and I see the load being shared in Denver as well with McDaniels running the show. Let's not forget, he was the Patriots' offensive coordinator, unofficially in 2005, and officially from 2006 to 2008. The team never really had a true No. 1 for various reasons. However, it wasn't because they didn't want one.

No one was able to step up as an every-down back for a full season! Moreno could be the running back who sees the majority of the touches. There's a difference in being an every-down back versus seeing most of the carries. Let's be honest, the team did not draft him 12th overall to share most touches. Let's see this play out, but this team will run - and run a lot.

Take a look at the Patriots' team rushing totals during McDaniels' run:

2005: 439 attempts for 1,512 yards (27 carries per game)
2006: 499 attempts for 1,969 yards (31 carries per game)
2007: 451 attempts for 1,849 yards (28 carries per game)
2008: 513 attempts for 2,278 yards (32 carries per game)

This team is going to run, that's for sure! For @JBobrick44, who stated:

"Just purchased a Knowshon Moreno Broncos Jersey....I hope I didn't make a mistake."

Looking at the numbers, there's a good chance you didn't. On average, Moreno is the 24th running back being taken, 51st overall, which is the fifth round in a 12-team league.

I think that may be too early for me, but it depends on who's there and who has been taken.

Broncos | Royal the next Welker?

Bill Williamson of ESPN.com reports Denver Broncos WR Eddie Royal could have a similar effect in head coach Josh McDaniels' system this season as New England Patriots WR Wes Welker did while McDaniels served as offensive coordinator with the Patriots.

My Take: Right now we have to take a wait-and-see approach because it's not Tom Brady slinging the rock. You also have No. 1 wideout Brandon Marshall demanding a trade or causing off-the-field problems.

Marshall needs to quiet down, play football, and stop being so arrogant and dumb off the field. Focus on the team and do your job, and not only will you benefit with a big contract, but Royal and Kyle Orton will also benefit from your play.

Theoretically this sounds good for Royal, don't assume Wes Welker numbers. On average Royal is the 22nd wide receiver being taken and 58th player overall. That's way too early for me considering all the questions surrounding the Broncos' passing game.

From quarterback to wide receiver issues, I wouldn't risk that high a pick for him.

Falcons | Will use Gonzalez as a blocking tight end

J. Michael Moore, of AtlantaFalcons.com, reports Atlanta Falcons TE Tony Gonzalez will catch his share of passes in the Falcons offense this season. However, with the offense built around RB Michael Turner, Gonzalez will be relied upon to be a productive blocking tight end.

"Tony will help our offense in a number of ways," offensive coordinator Mike Mularkey said. "One thing he's going to do is that he's a productive blocker and that's important in our offense ... As successful as he's been as a receiver, he's a good blocker too and he really doesn't get the credit that he should."

My Take: Come on people, what is so different from what happened in Kansas City? We've heard that for years. Then again, there is a difference as he had 73 receptions in 2006 and 78 in 2005, both big years for running back Larry Johnson.

When the running game came crashing back down to earth the last two years, his numbers rose: 96 receptions in 2008 and 99 in 2007.

This one falls under "Things that make you go hmmm..." Either way, he's on a new team with a strong rushing attack that wants to remain a run-first offense, so I think twice on Gonzo. Not knocking him, as he's quality, but this makes a big difference. Gonzo is the third tight end being taken, with an overall ADP of 57, the fifth round in a 12-team league.

For me that's too early, especially with Kellin Winslow out there.

Jason Witten and Antonio Gates are being taken ahead of him. That's how it should be. The truth is that I'm a closet Winslow fan because, when healthy, he's just a beast. If only Winslow could shut his trap, stay healthy and stop being a prima donna, he could eventually be the league's best tight end!

I would let Gonzo slide and come back two rounds later and grab Winslow. It's a risk, but this year, I'd probably do that. I'll take a risk like that in the middle rounds versus the early rounds. It's getting exciting.

We're getting closer, and don't forget, if you're looking for breaking news updates that get to you faster than e-mail, follow me on Twitter at http://twitter.com/wdelpilar

Matt Forte, Running Back of the Chicago Bears, Is Overvalued!

William Del Pilar — Tue, 07 Jul 2009 16:17:29 -0400

I must say, it was a wonderful Fourth of July and I hope everyone not only enjoyed it, but partied late into the evening and partied safely. The weather was gorgeous here in beautiful San Diego, but I live in the country, and the temperature was a little warmer than I would have liked. You can’t win them all.

We’re getting closer to the beginning of the season, and more and more drafts are happening. My staff, as always, is taking part in many of them, officially representing KFFL. As a private citizen, I’ve taken it upon myself to sign up for the NFFC and the WCOFF high-stakes leagues again this year.

I’m on a mission this year. The better half is never happy if I’m not in the top portion of any ranking of any contests I play in. Simply put, she views it as a waste of our money. I guess I can’t blame her! In response to that, I’ve finally begun to dig into the numbers and will have some projections soon enough.

Don’t forget to check out KFFL’s projections as they’re solid as well, and if you have questions about or issues with them, let them know. I always have enjoyed reading feedback on projections because it makes you think. In fact, I believe that is how projections can improve. You can never improve a service when someone is always complimenting the organization. You improve when someone gives you feedback and questions what you’re doing.

Enough of that! In reviewing e-mails I’ve seen since getting back, I came across one asking the following question: Who is the most overvalued player so far?

The original word was “overrated,” but I hate that word. I would rather use the word “overvalued.” In response to that question, I think Matt Forte is overvalued this year. He’s a nice back, but many of us who saw him play last season would not say he’s a top-tier, stud running back. I think players who are taking him at his average draft position (ADP) will regret it at season’s end when he’s compared with other running backs.

Chicago Bears' Matt Forte" width="391" height="213" />

Is any first-round fantasy football player more overvalued than Matt Forte?

In looking at Mock Draft Central’s ADP, right now he’s going 2.41 overall in point-per-reception (PPR) leagues and 2.50 in NFL performance (non-PPR) leagues. The high and low in PPR leagues are No. 1 and No. 4, respectively. In non-PPR leagues, they’re No. 1 and No. 5.

I have no issues with Forte and actually am a big fan. I love it when players without superstar talent excel and show they not only can play with the big boys but excel as well. He is that type of player. He is fundamentally sound and maximizes his talent. Sadly, I thought last season may eventually be seen as one of his best.

This year, I have concerns based on where he’s going, not on what he can do. I see newly acquired quarterback Jay Cutler not doing as many checkdown passes as Kyle Orton did.

If you watched them play last year, you would know the team put Orton in that position because they were conservative with him and did not want to go downfield as much. That created much wear and tear with Forte, as well. This raises the question of whether he was overworked last year and if it will affect him this year. He’s young, so many will say no, but until we see him play this year, we won’t know for sure. I would err on the side of caution.

I look for the team to open it up more and for the receivers and tight ends to see a jump in their receptions. That will come at the expense of Forte. His defenders will say, with Cutler behind center, defenses will not stack the box. While that may be true, I don’t see that theory as being valid enough to take him No. 1 overall or even in the top three to five. I won’t dispute that he is a middle- to late-first-round pick, but he’s not the overall No. 1.

The KFFL team stated it best when they pointed out that he failed to rush for more than 70 yards in seven different games. Also, his 100-plus yard games came against some weak teams last season. Specifically, they were the Indianapolis Colts, Detroit Lions and St. Louis Rams.

If I have a high first-round pick, I’m trading down because he’s not the only player going high whom I question this year. I haven’t seen so many first-round question marks in all my years of playing; I’m not kidding when I say that. This year’s first-round picks will have a lot of say in who wins their championships. That is, anyone from the top pick to the No. 12 pick could wind up the league’s best fantasy player!

Let me know your thoughts, and if you disagree, why? If you agree, who do you see as No. 2? I assume Adrian Peterson is this year’s top pick.

As always, if you’re looking for breaking news updates that get to you faster than e-mail, follow me on Twitter at http://twitter.com/wdelpilar.

Reviewing the KFFL Fantasy Football Analysis Draft's First Round

William Del Pilar — Tue, 23 Jun 2009 21:19:36 -0400

The KFFL Fantasy Football Analysis Draft with our staff of writers has begun.

This year’s draft is one of the most difficult I’ve ever seen with so many mediocre players vying for the No. 1 overall slot—by mediocre, meaning everyone has questions regarding production and/or injury.

Any pick in the first round in most leagues could end the season as the best player. It’s that wild of a year trying to figure who really is the best fantasy player entering the season.

Team: Ilan Mochari

1) Matt Forte, running back, Chicago Bears: I can’t argue with Ilan’s explanation regarding Forte’s reception total of 63 last year. However, one would think new quarterback Jay Cutler’s strong arm will not allow for as many pass receptions, especially as he has taken to tight end Greg Olsen.

Some may think opening up the offense will help Forte with more yardage because the line won’t be stacked up, but the team re-signed Kevin Jones and is expecting him to step up.

The team does not want to put the full load on Forte, because they know 379 carries can cause problems down the road.

Would you take Matt Forte No. 1 in a PPR draft?

I guess I view Forte as a serviceable back that fits the Bears, but not as an elite back. This just shows me how badly the running back position has dropped off in recent years. Running back by committee is the reason for some of the issues this year and what makes Forte attractive.

Team: Michael Egnak

2) Adrian Peterson, running back, Minnesota Vikings: I have no issues with this pick outside the fact I wish Peterson would catch the ball more.

I blame the Vikings for that.

They should be force feeding him the ball through the air at practice to better his skills with his hands. That would also allow him to get to the outside even more and to showcase his skills.

Come on, this is the West Coast offense.

Team: John Kotch Jr.

3) Michael Turner, running back, Atlanta Falcons: Turner showed himself to be the real deal.

He reminds me of Maurice Jones-Drew in build. I think this is a solid spot for him as the Falcons upgraded their passing game with tight end Tony Gonzalez, which will help the Falcons to open up the field along with Roddy White and Michael Jenkins stretching it.

A smart, safe pick here!

Team: Bryce McRae

4) Maurice Jones-Drew, running back, Jacksonville Jaguars: I’m not sold on Jones-Drew because he has never done it on his own, and he will be expected to.

He has the size and build because he’s so dense and strong, but, if the Jaguars don’t get a consistent passing game going, he could quickly become a bust.

Can MJD be The Man this year?

I don’t expect him to be a bust in a points-per-reception league, but he has always shared time with Fred Taylor prior to this upcoming season. That stated his potential if he can carry the load brings a high ceiling.

Team: Keith Hernandez

5) Chris Johnson, running back, Tennessee Titans: Here’s the player I would have taken over Jones-Drew and Forte.

Why?

Well, after seeing him play multiple times last year, I’m still wowed at how good he is. Unlike most, I believe the committee system with LenDale White helps him.

Sure, he had some long touchdowns and statistically speaking it will be hard to repeat.

However, I think the Titans know he is the key to their season, and I believe if he didn’t get hurt against the Baltimore Ravens that we’re looking at Jeff Fisher’s first Super Bowl win.

Team: Matt Wilson

6) Steve Slaton, running back, Houston Texans: I can’t argue this pick either. Slaton proved me wrong last year despite his size. I did not think he would stay healthy a full season. His size once again concerns me this year, but I won’t argue the pick because it’s a PPR league. In a PPR league his value is obviously much higher, and he seems like a lesser version of Chris Johnson.

Team: Tim Piotrowski

7) Steven Jackson, running back, St. Louis Rams: I don’t mind this pick, but I’ve always had issues with the fact he’s nicked up, and right now the Rams are a bad team.

I’m looking at the line being stacked to stop him, and it makes me wary of this pick. It reminds me of Larry Johnson from the last two years. If you’re the only legitimate weapon, you can be stopped unless the rest of the team steps up.

I won’t argue the pick based on him being No. 7, but I wouldn’t have made it.

Team: Cory J. Bonini

8 ) LaDainian Tomlinson, running back, San Diego Chargers: I love this pick, and Bonini explains it very well.

To be frank, I’m hoping I don’t have the first pick in any drafts I play in and he falls to me, because in the end, outside of Peterson, I think I feel safe with Tomlinson.

A first-round steal!

He’s proven, has a track record when healthy, and there’s no reason he should not be able to play much better than last year. Remember, he suffered the dreaded turf toe injury in Week One last year.

I don’t see that happening this year.

Phenomenal value!

Team: Tim Heaney

9) DeAngelo Williams, running back, Carolina Panthers: He had a monster season last year as a one-two punch with Jonathan Stewart, and I don’t see the Panthers changing their game plan.

However, I can’t argue those taken before him in this format. Some may have taken Brian Westbrook, but I agree with Heaney and his analysis on why he let him slide.

That stated, I’m not sure, but believe I would probably have gone Westbrook to be safe.

Team: Nicholas Minnix

10) Brian Westbrook, running back, Philadelphia Eagles: I’m not a big Westbrook fan this year as he has already undergone one surgery and the season has not begun!

Because of that, until I actually draft, I’m not sure what I would have done as noted in the last paragraph. Logic states I would have taken him ahead of any of the one-year wonders based on his track record, but that’s speculating.

That stated, at No. 10 overall, he brings great value if he comes back 100 percent from his ankle injury.

Team: Ryan R. Bonini

11) Frank Gore, running back, San Francisco 49ers: I like the value here because of new head coach Mike Singletary’s run-first philosophy. I think this was a safe pick by Bonini, but arguably the correct pick. His explanation states why—he is a 1,000-yard back the last three seasons, despite various issues at the quarterback position, nicks he has had to deal with, and different offensive schemes in that time.

Team: Kostas Bolos

12) Andre Johnson, wide receiver, Houston Texans: I can’t argue this pick at all because Bolos has the ability to come back with a running back. I think with so many running back committees the wide receiver strategy in a point-per-reception format has great legitimacy.

There’s my take. Each one was shorter than the rest because I didn’t want to give the editors too much to work with.

Look for concise breakdowns moving forward with highlights of whom I like and why.

Worst Pick: Matt Forte as I just don’t believe he’s worth the No. 1 overall pick.

Best Value: LaDainian Tomlinson because even on a down year he posted.

Around the NFL with Injury Updates and More

William Del Pilar — Fri, 12 Jun 2009 04:13:31 -0400

At times individuals ask me when and why I would take someone, so I'm attacking these blogs from that perspective. As always, let me know what you're looking for. As one of the industry's most dominant players, I have no qualms in sharing my knowledge.

It's my job and what I enjoy doing! Let's get down to some injuries I've seen cross my desk as I continue playing catch-up from being cut off from the Internet.

RB Willis McGahee on his ability to contribute despite his injuries: "I know what I can do." I'll be frank here; I've never been a McGahee (knee, ankle) fan. The Buffalo Bills wasted a first-round draft choice on him.

There were questions surrounding his health this offseason, and it turns out he had two surgeries. He's saying the right things and states the knee is not affecting him. However, he has been nothing but a bum for the Ravens, and it's no surprise we're hearing the team would not be opposed to shopping or releasing him.

However, with a $40 million contract they probably can't move him. His average draft position (ADP) is 91.34, the eighth round in a 12-team league. Obviously with the news of his two surgeries and the fact Ray Rice has the early lead to be the Ravens' every-down back, McGahee's stock will begin to drop.

Honestly? In my humble opinion (IMHO), I wouldn't waste a draft pick on him. He's injury prone, and in the end, I still think Le'Ron McClain has a shot to see carries as part of a 1A-1B tandem with Ray Rice. However, that is speculation, and training camp will answer many questions.

WR Kevin Curtis, Philadelphia Eagles on his sports hernia surgery: "The big thing for me is just getting healthy." Curtis (sports hernia) had to have offseason surgery for the hernia because of discomfort he felt.

He's not concerned with where he will fall on the depth chart and is focusing on getting back into shape, citing fatigue. He states he should be ready when veterans report on July 29.

I like Curtis, but his problem has always been consistency, and because of that I view him as a No. 3 or No. 4 receiver at best. I believe in consistent production from my positions because you need points every week in head-to-head formats, and he doesn't give you that outside point-per-reception (PPR) leagues.

His ADP is 124.67, which is the 11th round in a 12-team league. At that point with his potential (speed and receptions for PPR leagues), he's well worth the risk. If healthy he will see plenty of playing time, and that's the reason you take a chance on him. He'll get on the field, and he has upside because of his talent.

However, he is 31 and may have lost some of that speed. If that's the case, and he shows his age, then his value will drop. We'll have to wait for him to hit the field at 100 percent before we know that.

Agent Bus Cook on his client, QB Brett Favre, having shoulder surgery: "That's a confidential client privilege." I believe Favre (shoulder) will play for the Minnesota Vikings this year, but it's going to hurt the team.

Favre has not been working out, and his great season two years ago came after he rededicated himself to offseason training. He needs to develop chemistry with his receivers, learn the nuances of the playbook (regardless of how familiar he is with it) and get back into football shape. That's a lot to ask of anyone.

Most will say he's a veteran, but he's also much older than a typical veteran. However, if he signs with Minnesota, look for his draft stock to shoot up from an ADP of 206.46, which is the 17th round in a 12-team league.

I would take him as a No. 2 fantasy quarterback at that point, but odds are because of all the offseason news he'll be taken way too early once he does come back. I'm hoping training camp will show us how he looks and what to expect.

However, since it will probably be the first time he'll work with the team, then I don't even see camp giving us an idea of what to expect because he'll be behind in so many ways!

RB Brian Westbrook, Philadelphia Eagles, on his recent ankle surgery and knee: "I'm not worried in the least about these injuries...." Westbrook (ankle) had some bone fragments removed from his ankle, and the team is cautiously optimistic he'll be back in time for the regular season.

Westbrook's doctor stated he does not expect him to play in the preseason, and I would imagine his time would have been limited anyway if he was healthy. The team knows what he can do and he's a proven veteran.

I like Westbrook, and if you want him odds are you'll have to use a first-round pick on him. His ADP overall is the ninth pick, and though that should slightly drop, it won't be by much.

At this point, I'd only take Westbrook in a point-per-reception league. I like him, and if forced I'll take him but at that point, I'll grab someone with less injury history who's not over 30 and enters the season ready for a big year.

They're out there—running backs such as the Carolina Panthers' DeAngelo Williams, the Tennessee Titans' Chris Johnson, and others.

As always, if you're looking for breaking news updates that get to you faster than e-mail, follow me on Twitter at http://twitter.com/wdelpilar

Around the League with Carson Palmer, Jamal Lewis and more

William Del Pilar — Tue, 09 Jun 2009 20:58:19 -0400

I am behind, and I don’t like it. I live in the country (by choice) in the greater San Diego area because I enjoy a yard and having a little land.

Some technologies are not as readily available when they go down. Instead of having a cable modem, I have DSL and when something happens, AT&T takes their sweet time to fix it.

The techs are great once they get out here...always polite, friendly and willing to troubleshoot everything they can to fix the problem.

My issues are those darn customer support numbers we’re forced to call! Either way, I am back and happy to get to it.

There’s always injury news during the offseason, and this year is no different. We’re in June, so let’s take a look at those cats and see where they stand with organized team activities (OTAs) having wrapped up.

I’ll be hitting injury updates as they cross my desk while prepping my projections. Unlike the rest of the industry, mine won’t be available anywhere, so I don’t face the harsh deadlines my peers and employees do.

However, I’ll use this forum to talk about some of them and ask for your thoughts. Those are future blogs, so let’s get to this one.

QB Carson Palmer, Cincinnati Bengals on his elbow injury: “The arm felt great and the elbow felt great.”

There is no doubt in many minds, including mine, that Palmer (elbow) is ready to go after throwing a 50-yard spiral on the first day of OTAs that wide receiver Chris Henry caught in stride.

He states he feels great and is ready; offensive coordinator Bob Bratkowski stated Palmer looked sharp. With his average draft placement (ADP) being 92nd overall, eighth round in a 12-team league, some will be able to draft him as their No. 2 fantasy quarterback.

I would be hesitant to look at him as a No. 1, because on the surface, Palmer has always appeared to be top notch, but when you break down his numbers closer you’ll find some cause for concern. Add the loss of wide receiver T.J. Houshmandzadeh and you have legit questions.

RB Jamal Lewis, Cleveland Browns on his injured ankle: “I don’t want to do anything crazy or take the chance of injuring it.”

Jamal Lewis is getting healthy for 2009.

Lewis (ankle) had offseason ankle surgery, and although he attended OTA, he did not participate in many drills. In fact, Jerome Harrison has been working with the first team. Harrison, at one point, was the team’s No. 3 running back and like most backups is always popular when starters struggle.

I fully expect Lewis to be the top Dawg when healthy and believe the team feels the same way. One final note: Many reports are hammering on Lewis not practicing, but that’s overblown considering he’s a veteran and is healing.

His current ADP is 94th overall, the eighth round in a 12-team league. Right now, I’d make sure he was the best rated running back left on the board before taking him, just to be sure. Only then, he would become my No. 3 fantasy back.

HC John Harbaugh, Baltimore Ravens on WR Derrick Mason being ready for camp: “Derrick starting the season healthy is our No. 1 concern.”

Mason (shoulder) is the Ravens’ most underrated player and is a bona fide fantasy producer. While there have been a few questions on when Mason will be ready, the final answer is sometime during camp.

However, he’s a veteran with a season of working with quarterback Joe Flacco and knows the offense. Sure you want him to continue working with the young quarterback, but his health is of greater concern. He’ll be fine.

He’s going with the 93rd overall pick right now, the eighth round in a 12-team league, but that’s great value in my eyes. I’ll take him as my No. 3 fantasy receiver at that point.

Reporter Chad Cushnir’s article title on Jacksonville Jaguars WR Mike Walker’s 2009 potential: Ready for Breakout Season?

Walker has suffered a bit this past year. After making a splash in Week 5, he suffered a sprain of the medial collateral ligament. He then suffered a staph infection and personal tragedy. Walker lost his best friend and father in the same month.

While technically not an off-season injury, his early 2008 knee injury has made many forget him. Don’t make that mistake as 2009 is a new season.

He’s healthy and is in the early lead to start opposite Torry Holt. I would view him as a late-round sleeper right now. Currently his ADP shows he’s not being drafted! I view him as a late-round sleeper.

Super Agent Drew Rosenhaus on his client TE Jeremy Shockey, New Orleans Saints: “100 percent and feeling great.”

Most if not all of us now know Shockey (dehydration) was partying a bit too hard in Las Vegas. The kid is just living the high life, and in the end, he just needs some better friends watching out for his stupidity. We’ve all been there.

I’m no Saint (pun intended) and have been in just as bad or worse situations. We can’t forget our own youth when looking at and forming opinions on others. However, passing out at approximately 2 p.m. is pushing it! Pace yourself, Jeremy!

Shockey’s real issue is that he’s an inconsistent, injury-prone tight end, and he has this year to show the Saints he can get it together. He’s not a No. 1 tight end, in my book. He’s going with the 120th overall pick in a draft, the end of Round 10 in a 12-team league.

As a No. 2 that is acceptable for most, but not me. I would hold off for someone else later in the draft such as Kevin Boss and possibly even Tony Scheffler.

Before I forget, two links of note:

Mock Draft Central: This site is not just ADP, but you can host all your mock drafts here.
KFFL ADP: Powered by Mock Draft Central, our ADP is detailed yet simplistic to use.

As always, if you’re looking for breaking news updates that get to you faster than e-mail, follow me on Twitter.

Around the League with Injury Updates on B. Marshall, T. Brady and More!

William Del Pilar — Wed, 03 Jun 2009 00:19:20 -0400

There has been quite a bit happening the last few weeks concerning players coming back from injury. Let's take a look at those cats and see where they stand with OTAs wrapping up. This is the first part of injury updates for players. I'll be hitting them as I see their updates cross my desk. Let's get to it:

WR Brandon Marshall, Denver Broncos, on his hip injury: "I'm almost there. I'm almost there."

Marshall (hip) is taking his time with his injury but states if the team were playing in the Super Bowl right now he would be out there. Great news as he's begun to run, but the bad news is that he's decided to move his rehabilitation to Orlando.

Some speculate the move is sending a message to the Broncos as he's looking for a raise. The Denver Post reports the team, obviously, has off-the-field concerns with him, even though he reportedly won't be suspended for his latest gaffe involving a domestic dispute. He has had his share of problems.

His request for a raise is interesting because he's an unrestricted free agent (UFA) after this season, but if there is a new bargaining agreement his UFA status could change. In the end, he's under contract and scheduled to make about $2.2 million, but he's clearly underpaid.

As a general manager, I give him his raise but have enough off-the-field clauses in there to protect myself. That's a win-win, and Marshall would do well to live with it if offered. However, what I find ironic is that the article talks about him hosting an event for kids, hoping they can learn about life. While I believe experience is key to growth, Marshall would do well to heed his own words.

WR Marques Colston, New Orleans Saints, on his microfracture surgery: "a little bit ahead of schedule."

We knew Colston (knee) had surgery in January, but as the NFL allows teams to do, they did not fully disclose his surgery being microfracture. The kneecap had a small hole in it that needed taking care of. This is serious because Colston has been injury prone the last two years.

Last year he missed six weeks because of a torn thumb ligament. However, the good news is that he's already running and the team expects him back at full speed in time for training camp.

Be aware of this and don't put too much stock into reports until training camp. That's when we'll see if he is coming along. Because of this new news, I drop him right now into my No. 3 fantasy receiver slot. That would mean, I would probably not draft him as he's going right now with the No. 26 overall pick, the 10th receiver taken. That's the early third round, OUCH!

I will recommend him only if he's healthy come training camp, but with an injury-prone player like him and the seriousness of microfracture surgery, be pessimistic right now and let him prove us wrong.

WR Sidney Rice, Minnesota Vikings, on his knee: "It's not really an issue."

Just a few weeks ago, I talked about Rice (knee) and how he was stating his knee was not 100 percent yet. This update is great news because Rice is arguably the team's best receiver, or at least the one mentioned with the most overall talent.

After suffering a PCL injury last year, he was not able to recover enough to help his team or fantasy owners and in the end was a bust. However, during the last OTA he took part in every drill, made some plays and pronounced the knee as a non-issue.

He plans to continue working on strengthening the knee after OTAs and will have six weeks to get ready. Overall, Rice has looked good during the OTAs; remember this is his third season so as far as the playbook, he should be ready to take the next step.

I view him, if healthy, as a quality sleeper you may take near the end of the middle rounds as your No. 3 fantasy receiver. Yes, a bold statement but one many would not argue with if healthy. Right now he's going late in drafts (around Pick 193 overall), and that's even better.

Denver Post writer Mike Klis on RB J.J. Arrington: "This may further explain why the Broncos drafted Knowshon Moreno."

There once was a time when running back J.J. Arrington (knee) was seen as a potential No. 1 fantasy running back. However, it's been downhill since his rookie year with one disappointment after another.

The Denver Broncos were looking at him as their third-down back, which would not have meant much in fantasy terms.

At best, a Kevin Faulk-type player who could spot start for you. Arrington was not recovering well enough from his offseason microfracture surgery and was not able to pass his physical. His release creates some breathing room for fantasy owners come draft day.

Right now, speculating, I would say Moreno will be your top back who will share time with Correll Buckhalter and Ryan Torain. I would imagine LaMont Jordan to be a dark horse, but if he makes the squad he'll see at least the short-yardage touches.

What is sad is that Arrington is out a $3 million roster bonus, but managing editor Cory J. Bonini told me he will still pocket $100K. Not exactly chop liver to us common folk!

QB Tom Brady, New England Patriots, on his surgically repaired knee: "I feel as good as I could possibly feel."

After missing the 2008 season Brady (knee) is saying and doing the right things. He's taking part in OTA drills but is not making any promises on being ready opening day. That's the tale of the tape. Do you use a second- or third-round fantasy draft pick on him?

Right now I would say no considering other quarterbacks such as Donovan McNabb, Jay Cutler, Kurt Warner, Philip Rivers, Aaron Rodgers and others are going later than him. Let someone else take the risk. We'll know more on Brady once training camp is upon us, but until then I opt for a different and healthy quarterback.

There you have it with my first blog of the week covering some players healing from injuries.

Most organizations, including KFFL, will be releasing their rankings sooner than later. It will be interesting where some of the injured players stand. I say that because where they're projected determines if the organization believes they'll be healthy enough to contribute or not.

As always, if you're looking for breaking news updates that get to you faster than e-mail, follow me on Twitter at http://twitter.com/wdelpilar.

Around the League with Todd Heap, Shaun Alexander, Marshawn Lynch, and others!

William Del Pilar — Mon, 25 May 2009 12:00:06 -0400

As Memorial Day weekend wraps up, I hope you experienced family time in great weather. Despite the sad state our country is in, we still live in the greatest country in the world. Don’t ever forget that.

For those who have asked, sure the stories I talk about may be a week or two old, but that’s the fun part of the offseason. Most stories will drag on for weeks, even months, percolating before concluding. It’s a different pace from the fast-paced in-season stories. It’s one that I enjoy, so let’s get to what I’ve seen crossing my desk recently.

HC Jim Harbaugh, Baltimore Ravens, on TE Todd Heap: “He’s not as far along as we all thought he would be…”

I love Heap as he was the tight end who would sell himself out for the team with his body. He’s paying the price now. His body continually breaking down is a product of his style of play.

I believe Heap is done! I thought if he could return to health last year he could make a difference, but with the team drafting tight end Davon Drew and signing L.J. Smith to a one-year deal, they agree with me. Move on and ignore him on draft day.

Writer Michael Lombardi speculating on a potential trade: “If I were working for the Seahawks, I would call the Jets…”

Lombardi was saying that if he were the Seattle Seahawks, he would call the New York Jets for a trade. He suggests Deion Branch for Thomas Jones straight up, but the problem is that Jones is worth more than Branch. Add that to the fact Jones can be tough to deal with, and this will never happen.

The truth is that the Seahawks would not benefit. Branch has yet to be healthy for a full season, so the jury’s still out for Seattle management regarding his abilities. Now, they may be fed up with his injuries, but not his talent.

Jones will also demand a new contract before a trade and then demand it again two years later after one good season. That has always been his problem—some success and he wants a new deal!

You pair him with his brother Julius, who runs for Seattle, and you have an instant cancer in Julius’ ear. Obviously that’s my opinion, but I don’t think I’m far off after following his career. This deal would never happen!

RB Shaun Alexander, Free Agent, on a team signing him: “…they would be so pleased with what they got.”

Alexander would like the Washington Redskins to re-sign him this year. He wants back in and is working with a new set of trainers. When it comes to Alexander, it’s about discipline. I believe, if fully healthy, he can make an impact. Not as a top-tier running back, but as part of a committee approach.

Maybe I’m wrong and he’s done, but it’s tough to accept how quickly he fell off in production. Was it injury, or did he have nothing left in the tank? Stay tuned, but right now he’s nothing but an offseason story with no fantasy relevance … yet!

Alex Marvez on Brian Griese possibly going to the New England Patriots: “Griese was a college teammate of Tom Brady…”

One of my favorite writers, Alex Marvez of FOXSports.com, states Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback Brian Griese will be released, which is no surprise. However, he goes on to say the Patriots need a proven backup, which is true after the loss of Matt Cassel by trade to the Kansas City Chiefs.

As the header states, Griese and Brady were college teammates, and with no guarantees on Brady’s health, this makes sense. It’s important for fantasy owners because we saw what Brady and Cassel can do; both were backups, so whomever is slinging the ball in New England has value. Stay tuned for any developments.

Allen Wilson article on RB Marshawn Lynch: Bills’ Lynch files appeal of suspension

I haven’t read a report by Wilson in a while but have always enjoyed his work. He states Lynch has filed an appeal, and the importance is obvious. An appeal could mean an overturning of his suspension or at least a reduction of how many games he’ll miss. This helps fantasy owners but also hurts eventual owners of Fred Jackson and Dominic Rhodes.

Lynch is saying the right things, but whether commissioner Roger Goodell will agree is the real question. Lynch has had two issues with the law over the past year, and that’s what got him the three-game suspension.

Last year Denver Broncos wide receiver Brandon Marshall had his three-game suspension decreased to one, and he’s a worse offender than Lynch. Marshall, since February, has been arrested four times. Stay tuned on this one, but the fantasy ramifications are obvious.

Peter King column on Jon Gruden’s move to Monday Night Football: “MMQB Mail: Gruden’s move upsets NFL Network…”

Finally, King reports the NFL Network’s Steve Bornstein is furious that Gruden bailed on them and signed with ESPN. I’m not sure what Gruden’s salary is, but I’ve been told more than once in the past that neither the NFL nor the NFL Network pays much in relation to talent.

Their philosophy is that this is the NFL: We have thousands lined up to take your job. I believe that, and it’s not a bad a philosophy if it keeps good talent around at a fair price.

However, I have issues when an organization believes lowball offers and low pay are part of standard operating procedure. I’ve always believed the NFL has fallen under that umbrella.

Maybe that’s why I’ve never thought of or considered working for a sports organization such as the NFL, MLB, NHL or NBA. I’m not sure this was the case, but we can probably assume the larger viewing audience for ESPN, the name ESPN and, finally, the paycheck were the difference makers.

Peter King on former NFL Network reporter Adam Schefter: “… there are two people who should have been NFL Network stars this fall…”

On a side note, King talks about Schefter and alludes to how he could have been a star at the NFL Network. I agree with that but disagree with the assumption that Schefter’s a quality insider. I’ve been told he’s not all that, and though it was speculative, it appeared as if the NFL helped him break stories.

After a dozen years in the industry I know who the insiders (established and up-and-coming) are, and before his hiring by the NFL Network, Schefter was not one of them. ESPN wins with Gruden but loses with Schefter as they have enough insider talent.

Enjoy the final day of Memorial Day weekend, and as I always say, if you’re looking for breaking news updates that get to you faster than e-mail, follow me on Twitter at http://twitter.com/wdelpilar.

Around the League with Brady Quinn, Adrian Peterson and Others!

William Del Pilar — Sat, 23 May 2009 04:31:23 -0400

Sadly, my week that started so great ended badly. Nothing bad in my life, it just didn't pan out in carrying out some projects.

Sigh, what can you say when a curveball comes your way? You swing and hear a big "pfft" of bat hitting nothing but empty air! That's why we call it life, but we have a great holiday weekend coming up!

As we enter Memorial Day weekend, be safe, have fun and enjoy the fact we live in the greatest country in the world.

Before we get to my blog, I want to congratulate my dear friend Evian "Chico" Rivera, who is graduating this week from San Diego State. Congratulations, brother! It took awhile, but you've done it!

HC Tom Cable, Oakland Raiders, on Michael Vick: "I'm not going to go there." Do a search on Vick and you'll see headlines such as "Jerry Jones: Cowboys not a contender for Michael Vick," "49ers might bite on Michael Vick after ban," "Letter: No place for Vick with Patriots" and on and on.

However, Cable, who was with Vick in Atlanta, states football is secondary right now but did not come out and say they have no interest. This is classic Raiders as owner Al Davis loves to give players another shot.

The assumption is the player has a chip on his shoulder to prove everyone wrong. Vick IMHO would upgrade the position.

Sure Jeff Garcia is there, but he's older and limited, and JaMarcus Russell will never live up to draft expectations. If Russell fails this season, never say never!

HC Eric Mangini, Cleveland Browns, on the quarterback battle: "Brady will get the first reps today." According to Mangini, Brady Quinn has the early lead in the quarterback battle, but Mangini is keeping it fair with remarks such as "Not that Derek hasn't done well, but [Quinn] gets the first reps."

I think it's Quinn's job to lose. The team knows what it has in Derek Anderson and needs to see if Quinn can be the QB of the future or show enough for Cleveland to trade Anderson.

Quinn is not as good as the prognosticators believed he was when drafted, but the Browns have to give him a shot. I'm not sure how good he can be with the team around him, but because of that, I'm staying away from either player come draft day.

RB Adrian Peterson, Minnesota Vikings, on gaining weight: "God willing [I will get to] 225, 230..." Peterson wants to get bigger as he's a physical running back. I can't blame him. Fans forget, as a season wears on players lose weight and get weaker every week.

As fans, we don't think about a season in its entirety and how this violent game wears the players down. I think this is a great goal for him, and if anything maybe it helps with his durability as the season wears on.

He's this year's No. 1 overall fantasy player; he's not an exciting No. 1 IMHO, but he is someone worthy of the pick. Gaining the weight will help.

Frank Gore on sharing the carries: "... the more I touch the ball, the better player I am." The 49ers drafted Glen Coffee with their third-round pick, and many believe it could become a time share.

However, Gore doesn't necessarily agree, and head coach Mike Singletary talks about having someone give Gore a break and share some of the load. This leads one to believe Gore will not share time but be the primary ball carrier week in and week out.

Gore has disappointed the last two years, with only 14 total touchdowns and an average of 74 rushing yards and 28 receiving yards per game. Disappointing or not, Gore will see most of the carries, which makes him a low first-round pick this year.

RB Laurence Maroney, New England Patriots, on why he sucked last season: "I had a broken bone and I was trying to play with it." Maroney is talking about playing hurt and analysts and fans knocking him for his poor play without knowing.

There is truth to what he said, but I look back at how poor a player overall he has been. Especially in their last Super Bowl, when the team needed him to keep the New York Giants' front four honest. He couldn't.

He went down at times behind the line of scrimmage without any hard contact. Yes, this is the year he has to prove himself, because so far he has been nothing but a monumental disappointment.

Even then, he's worth nothing more than a late-round flier at the earliest with Fred Taylor, Kevin Faulk, BenJarvus Green-Ellis and Sammy Morris on roster.

GM Mickey Loomis, New Orleans Saints, on RB Edgerrin James: "We've spent some time evaluating Edgerrin." Alex Marvez pens another solid story, but I disagree with anyone who believes James still has anything left in the tank, particularly when you consider what his asking price will be.

You can probably find or could have found equal talent out there at a much lower cost. James has always been about the money and never about heart.

The article talks about how he averaged 67.2 rushing yards during the final five games last season and started all the Cardinals' post-season games. I buy that, but I am also not foolish enough to realize his lack of playing time until those final five games and the postseason were a result of fresh legs and nothing more.

The Saints would regret signing him, and he would also hurt the overall value of Reggie Bush and Pierre Thomas, mostly the latter.

Deuce McAllister on Deuce McAllister: "I want to play a couple more years." Deuce is still working out five hours a day at a clinic run by orthopedic surgeon James Andrews. In dollars, if healthy, he'd make a better signing than James would.

If he understands his role would be something to the effect of coming off the bench for seven to 12 touches, he would be fine.

I say that because Deuce, if healthy, can help a team balance its offensive attack. For fantasy owners, Deuce going back to the Saints would not affect Bush or Thomas as much as Edge would.

There you have it. Be safe this weekend and enjoy the hard-earned time off from work! As I always say, if you're looking for breaking news updates that get to you faster than e-mail, follow me on Twitter at http://twitter.com/wdelpilar

Around the League with David Ortiz, Manny Ramirez, Reggie Bush, and more

William Del Pilar — Tue, 19 May 2009 20:04:06 -0400

I’m having a great week so far, so let’s get to it. I hope your week is turning out well! It must be the coming summer as I think this is going to be my year. I don’t know why and I don’t know why I’m sharing this, but that’s the fun part of having a blog: You can share a little about yourself as well. Much more fun than writing articles! If you eventually find me on a ledge, you know something went wrong!

A few years ago the NFL made football a 12-months-a-year sport! There is still a lot happening despite the offseason and while much of it is fluff, we love it. Let’s see what has crossed my desk since we last spoke, but first a little baseball:

Former MLB Pitcher David Wells on steroid users: “No 50-game suspension. Ban them right away.”

My Take: Fantasy baseball is heating up with David Ortiz, better known as Big Papi, riding the pine. However, my take is on former big league hurler Wells, who’s big himself— about 250 pounds—lambasting Alex Rodriguez, Roger Clemens, and anyone who has taken steroids! You know what? I love his response.

Steroids have ruined the game of baseball, and it’s still happening. I blame the MLB and the MLBPA, and they only have themselves to blame. If they had it their way, the players would continue taking steroids, because big numbers equal big contracts and ratings.

Look at Manny Ramirez as the latest bombshell! The irony is how the Los Angeles Dodgers built up MannyWOOD as a promotion, and it blew up in their face! Look at his last contract and tell me he didn’t have motive, especially at 37 years old!

You know it’s tough on fans too! Some want to defend him because they want to believe he’s innocent, not because they believe he is. It’s similar to how I felt about O.J. I wanted him to be innocent because of what he represented to me when I was watching him play growing up.

In general the problem with MLB players is that most believe they are guilty. I was talking to a high school friend of mine who not only is a big sports fan, he also knows and follows the game. When I asked him point blank, he hesitated, and then said yes, he believes Ramirez did steroids, and so do I!

What about you? If you own Manny, you have to keep him (Big Papi for that matter) and hope he comes back strong. At least his wife or girlfriend hopes so!

WR Sidney Rice, Minnesota Vikings, on his knee: “I still feel a little pain…”

My Take: Rice needs to heal up 100 percent as he’s still feeling some pain when at full speed. Rice, who suffered the sprained PCL in Week Two, will fall down many rankings as questions continue to surround his health.

Obviously if Brett Favre eventually winds up in Minnesota, Rice becomes much more valuable, but he has been a constant injury risk and he’s not heading in the right direction.

We have awhile before training camps open, so this story is far from over on his health. For fantasy purposes, he’s a late-rounder right now based on his past performance.

GM Jerry Angelo, Chicago Bears, on WR Plaxico Burress: “Are we one of those two teams? No.”

My Take: This week Angelo supposedly shut the door on pursuing Burress. However, he also said they would look at every option and that Burress has life issues to deal with before even thinking of coming back to the NFL. I’m sure if he wins his case, the Bears will take a hard look at him.

It’s about playoff wins now for Angelo. He has been there long enough for the “what have you done for me lately?” mentality to enter ownership’s mind. The Bears like any other team will make a run at Burress if he’s able to play.

Jay Cutler’s value in fantasy drafts will take a hit until the team brings in someone fantasy owners believe will improve his ability to post big numbers.

RB Reggie Bush, New Orleans Saints, on his knee: “I’m about 75 percent.

Where would you draft Reggie Bush?

My Take: The team needs Bush to step up after he had microfracture surgery, which still makes my jaw drop. It was just a few years ago that microfracture surgery gave the player a 50-50 chance of playing again! Technology and medicine can work wonderful magic with the human body.

The question is if he can come back and how much can he contribute. Some will say he can’t be the same and some will say it won’t matter. I think you have to take a wait-and-see approach with him come draft day and simply not overpay. He’s currently going 53rd in Mock Draft Central’s average draft position.

That’s toward the beginning of the fifth round in most 12-man leagues, and I can’t argue it when I look at players going after him. Perhaps he’ll drop further in leagues that don’t offer point-per-reception (PPR), but he will be a steal for someone in PPR leagues as a fourth-round pick if he does come back!

NFL Collective Bargaining Agreement: “… [the owners] are the ones who opted out of the agreement…”

My Take: It appears as if both sides are positioning themselves in what could be a huge showdown with major implications. I mean major for the sports industry, but specifically fantasy sports. The NFL is every sports organization’s cash cow in revenue!

This potential lockout has ramifications beyond the league and players, especially for organizations that are already weathering tough economic times.

NFL rookie salary cap: “When I talk to [veterans] about this issue of a rookie wage scale…”

My Take: I disagree on the take by new NFLPA executive director DeMaurice Smith that players don’t set the salary scale. It’s a combination of reasons, but he, obviously, will slant it the other way for his players’ benefits. He’s a lawyer, but I hope this doesn’t turn into a tit-for-tat fight in public.

However, if the owners do what’s right—a big if—and redistribute some of those funds from the cap to players, I’m all for it! Remember Eddie DeBartolo and Carmen Policy? They built winners by being frugal; that is, paying when they had to, not because an agent or player demanded it.

Players were happy playing for the San Francisco 49ers, to the tune of five Super Bowls and the most winning decade in football history per DeBartolo’s Wikipedia! Let’s make no mistake about it: The 49ers of old (pre-salary cap) and the current Patriots franchise (salary cap era) are the models for how to win in the NFL.

I think a rookie salary cap would be good for the players in the long run. I don’t think the issue here is with the players or the NFL, rather with the agents who compete to negotiate the contracts.

NFL Pro Bowl: “The Pro Bowl is a player issue.”

My Take: Smith also talks about the Pro Bowl and how the NFLPA was not part of the consultation process before the NFL moved it. FYI, it’s going from Hawaii to South Florida, one week before the Super Bowl.

I believe that will heighten the Super Bowl experience. More importantly, it creates great marketing and promotion opportunities for the players. It’s a win-win, and it’s Smith’s job to get his players to realize this!

They can also work with the NFL to maximize this potential. Once they have a plan to contribute (not control it), then you approach the NFL. The truth is, in recent years, players not taking part in the Pro Bowl or not even going after being selected has hurt the game!

This is a great opportunity to mix business and pleasure for everyone, including the fans!

If anything, the players are employees, and the NFL does not have to discuss the game with them. In fact, if anything, Smith needs to take it upon himself to go to the players and tell the stars to show up! It has become a running joke now on how many will bail and who will be the first to bail.

That’s it for this update, and it feels good to start talking more and more on fantasy football as it’s the cash cow not only financially but for enjoyment as well! As I always say, if you’re looking for breaking news updates that get to you faster than e-mail, follow me on Twitter at http://twitter.com/wdelpilar.

Around the League with Edgerrin James, Anquan Boldin, and More

William Del Pilar — Fri, 15 May 2009 09:20:59 -0400

It's Thursday, and most are waiting for Friday to roll around. Let's get your day going with some items that have crossed my desk and my fantasy take on them. A partial fantasy take on some of it since it's so early in the season!

Let's get down to it with what's making headlines this offseason.

Let's take a look around the league

Tampa Bay Buccaneers, RB Cadillac Williams - "... hasn't been medically cleared..."

My Take: Steve Wyche reports Williams has not been cleared to practice.

For those who have forgotten, Williams tore the patella tendon in his left knee last year after dealing with his right knee the year before! Has the team moved on with the signing of Derrick Ward?

Of course they have, and they will look toward Ward and Earnest Graham as a one-two punch. This allows them to continue the slow process of bringing Cadillac along. Right now Williams has minimal value that will go up or down based on his rehabilitation.

Don't view him as that deep sleeper toward the end of your draft. I doubt, barring injuries to others, he'll see much of the field this year.

RB Edgerrin James, Free Agent - "... EJ will take his time..."

My Take: Drew Rosenhaus, super agent who screws not only fans but players (ask Errict Rhett), is stating that Edge will take his time to find a team. Translation: Edge doesn't want to do OTAs, minicamps or anything else for that matter.

Most veterans don't, so don't scream at Edge for being a malcontent! Unless Rosenhaus can squeeze a sweetheart deal for Edge, it would not be surprising to find him with an incentive-filled contract near training camp time.

Don't get me wrong, Rosenhaus is looking hard, but most general managers know that Edge's postseason production was due more to his fresh legs than his having anything left in the tank. Obviously, he has no value until we know which team will overpay, err, sign him!

Arizona Cardinals, WR Anquan Boldin - "... $10 million per yr are inaccurate..."

My Take: Let's stick with the super chump, err, Rosenhaus as he states Boldin is not seeking $10 million per year. I don't believe him. I believe Boldin was seeking that, but since the market has dried up he's now willing to go for less. That's how it works.

Rosenhaus knows and understands people. That is, he's able to read a general manager and come up with the best deal for his player by pressing the proper "fear" buttons of the general manager. He's a great agent in doing his job at the cost of the team and fans.

That stated, even the great ones screw up now and then; I'll say again: Remember Errict Rhett, because Boldin will not see those dollars—at least not that much! Boldin deserves elite dollars, but because of his agent, his attitude and his potential to get a new deal only to ask for a new one two years from now, teams are staying away.

If I'm the Philadelphia Eagles, I try to trade for him, but if I'm the Cardinals, I hold firm. If I'm a fantasy owner, I draft him as if it's business as usual. Holdout or not, he'll play somewhere this year and post solid numbers as he's playing for a contract!

Finally, I don't care what anyone states about Eagles rookie wide receiver Jeremy Maclin. He's not proven, while Boldin is. The Eagles are built to win now, not later, and Boldin can help speed that up. Maclin can't!

Buffalo Bills, RB Fred Jackson - "... we got it done..."

My Take: Jackson and the Bills have squared away a new contract for him,and it's an important one. Why? Well, with Marshawn Lynch gone for the first three weeks because of suspension, Jackson probably has the edge over free-agent signee Dominic Rhodes.

Look for a one-two punch here, but I would bank on Jackson, with his youth and knowledge of the playbook, over Rhodes to start.

That stated, I think both will play. The real issue arises with the return of Lynch. Though one would assume Jackson will be the backup, it's so far away that it's not worth delving into. Grab Jackson over Rhodes on draft day would be my advice though.

I guess I do have an opinion on who would be the backup to Lynch by telling you to grab Jackson. D'OH!

Michael Vick, Prisoner - "... here are guys who most people think aren't winners." My Take: As much as I despise Vick, the moron will have served his time and should be allowed to resume his career. It's the right thing to do, and we hope he comes out a different man.

However, the odds, IMHO, of his success are slim to none! The writer tries to state that Tony Dungy's talk will help Vick in the eyes of the NFL and the public. I disagree. No one will help Vick until he decides to help himself, and that will only happen through actions.

Humans are humans toward one another, but when you hurt kids or animals, the public is much less forgiving because children are precious despite what my thoughts are on kids.

OK, I'll give you my thoughts anyway: They're spoiled, they have excuses made for them by parents, and most believe they deserve an X-Box 360 just because. I digress by stating my thoughts on 95 percent of today's youth, but that's how I see it ... so sue me!

Back on topic: Animals give nothing but unconditional love and never deserve maltreatment from humans, so when it happens it's viewed almost being as low as you can go. Dungy's appearance is not going to help.

Proof? Dungy couldn't get the businesses that committed to his offender's job fair to show up now that he's not the head coach of the Indianapolis Colts. I believe this is just another famous face visiting a prisoner and hoping for good PR—at least Vick hopes for good PR.

That stated, I can see Vick going to a team, and suddenly the Wildcat offense becomes productive. I think he could have his best years statistically on his return because of the Wildcat being the offensive scheme flavor of the year.

Obviously, Vick is just fun to talk about as he has no fantasy value right now!

Tennessee Titans, RB Chris Johnson - "C.J. has a chance to be one of the best in the league."

My Take: This is an excellent blog by KFFL friend Jim Wyatt! The team wants to use Johnson in more ways than they did last year, and I like it. He's a devastating runner as his feet and speed make defenders miss and tackle open air.

If he had not gone down in the playoffs last year against the Baltimore Ravens, then the Titans easily win that game. You can talk to any analyst you want; 99 percent of them will agree on that assessment.

In the end, the Ravens just could not touch him, but injury took him out and gave the Ravens their controversial win. I'll go as far as saying if Johnson doesn't go down, then the Titans walk away with the Super Bowl.

That's how good he was and how important he was to the team. Fantasy owners can expect to see more receptions if they use him as a receiver as well. He's that good, and I agree with Wyatt: It's what many thought—I never did—Reggie Bush could become.

In my eyes, Johnson is easily a top-five fantasy player in point-per-reception leagues and a first-rounder in non-PPR leagues.

New York Giants, WRs Domenik Hixon and Steven Smith - "... young, inexperienced and unproven."

My Take: Do I need to comment? We've seen both receivers in action, and they are quality wideouts but not top-tier quality. Despite the fact that the Giants drafted Hakeem Nicks and Ramses Barden, I believe they will have to sign a veteran.

While Anquan Boldin may not be of any interest today as OTAs and minicamps go, the team will probably realize they need help, and if they're smart they'll take a hard look at Boldin. He's upset about respect financially speaking and is not an off-the-field problem like Plaxico Burress is.

I predict they'll sign a veteran of some sort to come into camp when training camps open. I don't put much stock into this starting duo and believe when most drafts roll around, we will see different names listed as starters.

Minnesota Vikings, DTs Kevin Williams and Pat Williams - "... Williamses are seeking up to $10 million..."

My Take: The Williamses believe they are being railroaded. However, with the death of Korey Stringer in 2001 because of heatstroke after he had taken an ephedra-based product that morning, diuretic or not, I find them 100 percent culpable!

Why? Because you have to look toward your health always, and only you can be responsible for that! I know; the ingredients did not appear on the bottle.

However, to lose weight they were using unnatural means that could cause health problems if not done properly. I used to wrestle, and most wrestlers know every trick to lose weight, and if you're using diuretics, you're struggling.

If I have a child, I will have strict guidelines if he wants to wrestle, and professional players should be and need to be just as strict with their own bodies! The fact they are also looking for up to $10 million shows us how much greed is at the heart of this. Whatever happened to doing what's right in this world?

All that stated, the Williamses make the Vikings defense potent and easily a top-five fantasy defense. Their loss would hurt the team and fantasy owners. Resolving this during the offseason is the best alternative with their suspensions! In this country, we never learn until we're caught AND punished.

If they don't and instead continue down this road, odds are we won't have another Stringer with them, but someone else will see how they were able to get away with it, and he could be the next death. Instead of doing what's right, the NFLPA will do what's self-serving.

That's it for the second week of May 2009! Have a great weekend, be safe and we'll do it again next week.

As I always say, if you're looking for breaking news updates that get to you faster than e-mail, follow me on Twitter at http://twitter.com/wdelpilar

Around the League with Brandon Jacobs, Brett Favre, Kevin Smith and more

William Del Pilar — Wed, 13 May 2009 23:50:40 -0400

I must say it, if you haven’t read a blog on Brett Favre or may be just sick of it all, do read one more! I’m extremely hard on my writers when it comes to setting up opinion with fact. That is, back up the facts with sound analytics.

I say that because any moron can twist statistics for their own view. Just ask the video game industry about Jack Thompson!

Ryan R. Bonini, KFFL General Manager, has written, I think, his best blog ever, “Can Brett Favre still play? Can he win?” I hope you enjoy it … after reading mine!

Let’s take a look, around the league:

Brandon Jacobs about Braylon Edwards, “We don’t want him.”

My Take:

Jacobs was politically correct when he spoke about Cleveland Browns wideout Braylon Edwards by making statements such as “he’s a great guy and a great player,” but in the end the Giants don’t throw enough and Edwards is not “New York.”

In the end, I believe Jacobs knows Edwards can become a potential locker room malcontent. Edwards is a receiver who complains about the quarterback yet can’t hold onto a pass to help his team win!

Remember, Eli Manning is not a quarterback who is a vocal and will not defend himself. The contrary, his personality is one that keeps it all in.

Matt Ryan on Tony Gonzalez, “I’ve been very impressed.”

My Take:

In a great piece by D. Orlando Ledbetter, who I’ve followed the last few years, newly acquired tight end Tony Gonzalez stated his head was spinning in learning the new offense.

However, quarterback Matt Ryan did admit throwing more passes his way. It makes sense as he says Gonzo is a new toy and in the end, having him as an alternative will only make Roddy White and, specifically, Michael Jenkins much better fantasy receivers.

This trade is great news for all the skill positions in Atlanta. Don’t let anyone say otherwise!

Kevin Smith, “… I will say this: We will definitely make the playoffs….“

My Take:

WOW! Remember, “you never say never!” That stated, I don’t know. It’s a great report by Carlos Monarrez that I saw in an e-mail to me. The Lions lost five games by three or more touchdowns! Can you say blowout?

What I did like, despite the fact he’s one year removed from his rookie season, Smith did not hesitate to criticize the team to help them improve. Leaders do that!

However, for more ridiculous predictions, Monarrez lists some of Smith’s 2008 predictions. I have to add, “Mr. Smith, I have some land in Florida for sale!”

Leon Washington and Thomas Jones, “boycott of the team’s organized team activities (OTAs)“

My Take:

Thomas Jones has done this before, and without class, I might add! This is not surprising or shocking.

His agent Drew “I’ll tell my client to do anything for money,” Rosenhaus is notorious for making his players holdout.

At least that’s how I’ve seen it over the last decade! Rosenhaus wants you to believe Jones is only receiving a paltry $900,000 this year in pay for all the hard work Jones has done.

The truth is that Jones signed a $20 million contract and has already taken home $13 million. Ironically, he’s crying similar blues as Arizona Cardinals wide receiver Anquan Boldin, another Rosenhaus client!

Washington? Well, he’s unrestricted eligible after this year. What gets me is that he believes he’s worth Maurice Jones-Drew money? Heck, Darren Sproles isn’t worth the $6.621 million he will see with his one-year deal.

When push came to shove, Sproles could not put the team on his back. For that type of money you better, because if you can’t, you have hurt your team by locking up dollars that could have gone to depth and other areas of need, not a small overachieving running back that is only good for special teams play.

Sadly, that is Sproles and Washington in a nutshell! Both Jones and Washington need to get into camp, because, according to Mark Cannizzaro (article writer), the team is beginning to get upset!

Finally … Bus Cook (Brett Favre’s agent), “… how badly they wanted him and what kind of contract and terms we were talking about.“

My Take:

This is from a story that focuses on Favre’s shoulder and x-rays sent to the Minnesota Vikings and Bus Cook, his agent, stating he knew nothing of it. I’m here to comment on the quote. It’s too funny!

One conspiracy theory has Favre and Cook creating this circus eventually to say they’ll play because of the fans demanding it.

Adding the warning, how Favre is the only one who can take the Vikings deep! Whether true or not that’s what the hoopla has been all about.

If he does come back, I believe he will come in and ask for one of the largest one-year contracts ever made for a football player.

Sure, there are cap issues, but we’re talking great marketing and promotion here by Cook and Favre with potential desperation by the Vikings.

To be continued….

For the latest in player news (where I look for my topics), draft strategies articles and more, head over to our NFL section.

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Brett Favre, Is It Really Over?

William Del Pilar — Fri, 08 May 2009 20:44:27 -0400

Unlike KFFL Editor Cory J. Bonini, I’m going to write about Brett Favre, America’s most overrated modern day quarterback. That and I don’t have my sleepers done yet to show you. For those of you looking for early offseason sleepers, head over to his blog, as he tosses a few bones your way!

Is future Hall of Fame quarterback Brett Favre going to stay retired? How did we get to this point with all the stories? That is, how did they originate if not true? From where did they originate if not true?

That’s the dilemma we’re faced with that we’ll ignore in today’s day and age. There was a day when reporting a story and searching it out was much more carefully done. If these stories are true, why is Favre’s agent, Bus Cook, stating the following?

Cook said all he knows is that Favre remains retired.
Cook stated he did not have any knowledge that Favre and Minnesota Vikings head coach Brad Childress were meeting. While they didn’t meet face-to-face, they did talk via phone.
Cook stated Favre is not working with a personal trainer.
Cook said Favre is not looking for a quarterbacks coach, either.

Look, Cook is Favre’s agent and we know he can be a real jerk of a human being with flat-out lies to the media. The Jay Cutler saga showed us he will do anything for his client.

To me, Cook seems to be nothing but a slimy excuse of a human being. Some of these high-end agents are nothing but slime balls.

I met one once and I got into an argument with him because he wanted to pull the race card after his client did not get the job. In the end it had nothing to do with race; it had to do with the fact his client just wasn’t that good! He didn’t like me saying that, I guess, as he also stopped feeding KFFL.

It didn’t bother us, to be honest; maybe it did for one of the staff who believed he was friends with him. Agents, most of them, will justify their selfishness and greed by crossing any gray ethical area by stating they’re just doing their jobs.

Didn’t we hear that from most of the captured Nazis? My point is they don’t care about anything but the greenbacks!

That stated, I would have to think if any one of these stories were true, Cook would have known about! Since contact between Favre and Childress did happen, I can’t say I believe much of what Bus Cook has to say.

My first and only question to Mr. Cook is that it appears Favre did talk to Childress and as Favre’s agent you’re trying to tell us you did not know? In the end, we have to ask, what games are Favre and Cook playing?

Let’s not forget Favre played games with the Green Bay Packers his final few years, so I won’t put it past him or Cook to do the same here. In fact, I expect it!

Guess what Cook told ESPN and USA Today: Favre could always change his mind. You think? Could this be a ploy for Favre to land a huge one-year financial windfall? If that is the case, the Vikings need to take a hard look at a man who is finally becoming known for his true self, a selfish, me-first player.

I say that with no apologies to John Madden, who slobbered so much over Favre that it reminds me of my Labrador while I’m eating a big juicy steak! Sorry, I just couldn’t resist the Madden jab...because it’s true!

If he is doing this for money and his heart isn’t in it then the Vikings are looking at a tumultuous season. Look at the New York Jets by the end of the season last year! Favre was treated differently as excuses were made for his play. However, it began to alienate the locker room as former teammate Thomas Jones let us know.

We could also look at it through Favre’s eyes. He desperately wants another Super Bowl ring, which is normal for any player. He was not happy he was not the Super Bowl MVP but he didn’t deserve it.

Maybe Favre wants to be “the man” in a Super Bowl and that’s what drives him? It’s one possibility as most have finally come to realize it’s all about Favre as far as he’s concerned!

This story is far from over, especially with the latest reports surfacing that suggest Favre will sign with the Vikings if his shoulder checks out fine. Heck, we’re only in May and training camps don’t kick off until August.

That gives Favre three months to continue playing mind games with the media, fans, and anyone else who he feels can give him the attention he so desperately craves.

To be continued...

As usually, let me know your thoughts and don’t forget to follow me on Twitter.