Bleacher Report - Articles by Austin Snow

Colorado Avalanche: Playoff Experience Will Make the Difference

Austin Snow — Wed, 09 Apr 2008 07:14:54 -0400

One year ago, the Colorado Avalanche had just cleaned out their lockers and were left wondering "What if?"

An improbable stretch run had landed them just one point shy of a playoff berth—a disappointing and seemingly unfair reward for going 15-2-2 to close out the season.

This year, they were determined not to let that happen again. Starting the season, every player and coach knew that the first 10 games would be just as important as the last 10 games.

And now they're back in. After a year-long hiatus, Avalanche fans can finally breathe in that sweet, playoff hockey air that so many had grown accustomed to over the past decade.

The Avalanche open the first round on the road against the Minnesota Wild, winners of five out of eight games during the season series between the two, and first-time division champions.

Yet only three points separate the Wild and the Avs, and the argument could be made that this is one of the most evenly matched first round battles.

Sunday's game at the Pepsi Center was a sneak peak at what is ahead. But it is almost certain that these games, this war, will be different.

The Avalanche are led by Captain Joe Sakic, the longest-tenured captain in the league. His very presence on the ice demands respect, and his patented wrist shot still leaves opposing netminders humbled.

Sakic is joined by a diverse group, ranging from 22-year-old Paul Stastny, who has never played a playoff game in his young career, to Adam Foote and Peter Forsberg, with whom Sakic won a cup on the Avalanche team in 1996 and again in 2001.

In between are the likes of playoff-tested Ruslan Salei, hard-working Ian Laperriere, and multiple scorers who are hungry to bring this team to it's full potential.

Wojtek Wolski is another key for the Avalanche. He has appeared in the playoffs before, but never as a regular in the lineup. He has proven to be a solid offensive producer, and was clutch for the Avs the last time he was in the playoffs, scoring an overtime winner against the Dallas Stars in the first round.

Players like Wolski are the ones Minnesota needs to keep an eye on. If guys like Sakic, Forsberg, and Ryan Smyth are stopped, there are always others like Wolski, Andrew Brunette, and Tyler Arnason who can and will put the puck in the net.

A defensive unit like Minnesota's must have depth and be prepared to handle this group, because you never know where the threat is going to come from.

Losing Nick Schultz to an appendectomy largely hinders that for the Wild. They will have to have someone, or a few players, step up and get the job done or they will be run over.

Andrew Brunette's story is an interesting one. He was a member of the Wild in 2003, when the Avalanche led their first round series three games to one. The Wild came back, forced overtime in game seven, and Brunette scored the series-clinching goal against Patrick Roy—the last goal to be scored on Roy in the NHL.

Terry Frei of the Denver Post asked Brunette if he wanted "to get revenge on... himself?" Brunette replied that he liked the role reversal, but that "it does feel odd doing this again from the other side."

And while these teams match up well in most categories, there is a staggering difference in special-teams play for both squads. The Wild ranked seventh this year on the power-play, and fourth on the penalty-kill.

That doesn't bode well for a Colorado team who ranked 29th on the power-play, the worst ever for the Avalanche. This is one of the main areas in which Peter Forsberg comes into play.

Colorado's power play, while still being among the last in the league, seemed to come to life at the end of the season. No doubt this was fueled by the patience and play-making abilities of Forsberg.

If that can carry over into the playoffs, the Avalanche have a good chance at winning the series. However, if the man-advantage doesn't produce, and Minnesota is able to keep their penalty-kill solid, this is going to be a tough series for Colorado to win.

Power-play quarterback John-Michael Liles showed some offensive spark recently too, so he will be a key as well. A lot is riding on special teams play for both teams, and many experts agree that this factor will in fact decide the series.

While it's very possible that special teams will decide the series, it's also feasible that a lack of special teams will decide the series, in which case the advantage clearly goes to the Avalanche.

Colorado was the least penalized team in the league this year, which can be attributed to their smart, disciplined play. If the Avs stay out of the box, the Wild will have to find some way to cope with the dominance of the Avalanche playing five-on-five.

Colorado severely outranks Minnesota playing five-on-five, both scoring more goals and allowing less. So special teams will decide the series, but that may come in the form of less power-play time for Minnesota.

In the net, both teams are confident that their goalies can make the difference. Niklas Backstrom, the 30-year-old from Finland, is probably one of the most underappreciated netminders in the league.

Although he went 1-4 in the playoffs last year, he still had a respectable 2.22 goals-against average, which is not something to ignore.

His .920 save percentage this year is higher, though, than Colorado goalie Jose Theodore's, who owns a .910 save percentage.

Theodore is on the other end of the spectrum as far as media attention goes. He had a dismal year last season, and many speculated that Avalanche General Manager Francois Giguere would buy out the last year of his contract.

But this season, Theodore, or "Theo" as Avs fans like to call him, has bounced back to become one of the staple elements of this Avalanche team. There are calls from prominent hockey figures for Theodore as the "comeback player of the year," and for good reason.

He has become the clear No. 1 in Denver, and he led this team into the playoffs when so many other stars were injured. He has gone 12-4-1 in his last 17 starts.

If he stays hot it will pose a huge problem for the Wild, who already have to deal with Colorado's physical defense.

This promises to be a long series, with the winner coming in game six or possibly even game seven.

All that said, numbers, records and past achievements are all thrown out the window today. Today the playoffs start, and anything can happen. Today someone finds it in himself to step up and be that hero.

Today you will see giants fall and men rise to become more than they thought they ever could be. The impossible will happen. The inevitable will not happen.

And when we least expect it, magic will turn one of these playoff teams into champions.

It all begins today.

It's the Peter, Paul, and Milan Show!

Austin Snow — Wed, 26 Mar 2008 17:36:08 -0400

What a night for the Avalanche. On the other end of the spectrum, what a night for Roberto Loungo and the Vancouver Canucks.

Peter Forsberg, Paul Stastny, and Milan Hejduk combined for a total of nine points, three apeice, to lead the way for the Colorado Avalanche over the Canucks.

In a game that saw the Canucks blow a second 2-1 lead, the Avs (again), had a tremendous second period, as usual, and chased an (of late) inconsistent Luongo from the cage.

Although the Canucks went up 2-1 at the end of the first period, the game was never really in their control. Colorado started with an extra jump to their game, capitalized on the power-play (again), and just exploded in the second frame. The Avalanche have now scored powerplay goals in 7 of their last 8 games, and it is looking like their once dormant man-advantage could be coming to life, and it could not come at a better time.

While Hejduk, Forsberg, and Stastny got the first, second, and third stars, respectively, other Avalanche players had huge games that no doubt contributed to the win. John-Michael Liles on a resurgence of late, made a perfect outlet pass in the second period on Cody McCleod's fourth goal of the season, finishing the game a plus-3.
Another Avalanche standout tonight was Wojtek Wolski. Finishing the game with one assist and a plus-1, his skating seemed to be at another level than it has been for quite awhile. If that stays consistent, look for a dangerous 1-2 punch in Colorado's top two lines.

But the story of the night was (again), the new top line of Stastny, Foppa, and Hejduk. "The Duke" is used to playing with Forsberg. He is used to unexpected passes and impossible plays. (Not to mention, he has scored four goals and six points [4-2-6] in the last three games.) But this is Stastny's first experience with #21. If this line really is as good as they let on to be tonight, we are in for some exciting hockey in the next few weeks. Pray that coach Quenneville can recognize something special and keep them together.

Solid performance by Theodore in net again, including a couple point blank stops and a breakaway save that set the tone; a tone that Luongo couldn't sing to tonight.

Regarding the playoff picture, things continue to get interesting. The Avalanche are now just one point behind the Dallas Stars, who were oh-so-close to catching the Detroit Red Wings a couple of weeks ago. Since then, they have stayed right where they are, watching as teams pass them in the standings. The Brad Richards factor seems to have been "factored out" the last couple weeks, much to the dismay of Brett Hull and Stars fans. (As well as the Stars' owner's pocketbooks).

The Avalanche are also only three points back of the Minnesota Wild, who won tonight against the Edmonton Oilers to put a huge damper on their playoff hopes. With two games left against the Wild, it is completely possible that they win both games, vault into first in the division, and with a little help from the Oilers, Canucks, and Wild, secure the third spot in the conference. For now, the Avs are happy to just be further up the mix and not have Edmonton and Nashville breathing down their necks anymore. San Jose is still the team to avoid if possible in the first round, but a playoff appearance would breath new life into this Avalanche Organization.

Fearless prediction: the Vancouver Canucks will not make the playoffs. I know, I'm eating my words from the article I posted yesterday, and that's something I'll have to work on in future articles regarding not making statements I'll have to rescind, But based on their play the last two nights, I don't think they'll make it. The Flames, Wild, Avs, and Oilers are hungrier than they are, plain and simple. They don't have the confidence they need to finish the season strong.

This is precisely what happened to the Avalanche in their four-game losing streak preceding these two most recent wins, but Colorado was able to regroup in time to make that final push. For Vancouver, the clock is about to strike midnight, and they better not be sleeping when it does, or they will be on the outside looking in and wondering what happened.

Of course, everything can change in one night. You just have to get used to it. That's how we play out here in the Wild, Wild West.

NHL: "Objects in Mirror Are Closer Than They Appear"

Austin Snow — Tue, 25 Mar 2008 19:27:34 -0400

The Edmonton Oilers are this year's Colorado Avalanche.

Of course, I'm referring to last year's stretch run, where the Avs went 15-2-2 to close out the season and became the team with the highest point total ever to not make the playoffs.

Now, I don't think the magic number will be as high this year, but I know we'll have a couple disappointed teams on the outside looking in when it's all said and done.

Edmonton will not make the playoffs.

That's why I say they're this year's Avalanche. They have too many injuries, and the guys getting it done right now can't stay hot forever.

Going 12-3 is a respectable run, but it just isn't in the cards for these guys.

If your stars are making the run possible, like San Jose, it can be sustained. These guys have experience.

But Edmonton's run is too fragile to see the season out. I'm not saying they will lose the rest of their games. But anything other than five wins puts them out for sure. And I think five wins is too much.

I hesitate to say whether Nashville will make it. They have games against the Jackets, Wings, Blues (twice), and Hawks.

They can theoretically win four out of those five games, giving them eight points, and 92 total. I don't think that's enough to get in.

I think it's going to take at least 93. And those four wins is being generous. The Columbus Blue Jackets will come out hard following a 3-0 shutout tonight, and the Hawks are always dangerous.

So barring a spectacular five games by the Preds, expect to see four teams from the Northwest Division in the playoff brackets.

That, by the way, has never happened. Just goes to show the difficulty of the division.

As far as the rest of the seedings go, the Avalanche can beat the Canucks tomorrow night, for 88 pts.

Then I think they can at least win two out of four remaining games, for 92 points. Now, the reason I say that this 92 points will make it in is because the Avs have a pretty high win total.

They get more points from wins than lots of OT losses, so in the tiebreaker, I say the Avalanche win total prevails.

Ideally, they win the last five games, giving them 96 points, good for second in the division, possibly even first if there is a little magic. And that is ideal.

If I'm the Avalanche, I want the third or sixth seed, so I can play another Northwest division team in the first round. Otherwise, the Avs need to fall into the eighth seed.

The seventh seed is bad.

Whoever plays the Sharks in the first round, loses. And loses bad. That needs to be avoided.

As far as eighth seed goes, I honestly think Colorado has a legitimate shot at beating Detroit. If that's what happens, the Avs go in there with playoff intensity, and the Red Wings flop, just like recent years.

That, along with the defensive pickups at the deadline and a (hopefully healthy) Peter Forsberg provides for a really good series.

I'm almost rooting for this one to happen... What would the pickups of Forsberg and Foote mean if the Avs didn't play the Wings?

So that's my take. Whatever unfolds, it's bound to be good.

And all you eastern conference readers, root for the Capitals. God only knows what Ovechkin would do in the Playoffs. How about an Ovechkin vs. Crosby playoff series?? Yeah, I know.

Hope our guys are prepared for tomorrow. Vancouver gave up a bad loss tonight, and I was hoping they'd win. Good thing we're at Pepsi Center.

Colorado Hockey: Avalanche Just Not Giving Enough

Austin Snow — Tue, 25 Mar 2008 10:18:21 -0400

Last night's game against the Flames was pretty good. It was a solid, team effort that resulted in a win, and further, a shutout for Jose Theodore.

But it wasn't enough. I'm an optimist, I'd like to think we can win most of the 82 games we play during the season.

But that's the mindset the members of the Colorado Avalanche need to have right now. They need to win the rest of the games. I know, they can make the playoffs without winning ALL of their last five, but why not shoot for the top? Why not try to make the third seed as the division winner?

And then even if you don't make it, you can still know that you played your hardest, and can take that momentum into whichever first-round playoff series you land.

Last night was a good two points. But it wasn't a playoff team. There must be more.

Luckily, Calgary couldn't shoot all night, otherwise it could have been a different story. I want to see guys SKATING their butts off instead of just taking half-strides with the puck. I mean GO!

Like I said earlier, it wasn't a bad game, but there is room for improvement.

I will say this, the defense was great at stifling any chances the Flames could have had. I despise when other teams do that to us, and last night I saw why they did—because it works. Our defense needs some consistency. Our goaltender has found it.

Our offense is starting to pick up. Lets keep our defense hard-nosed and tough to play against. I hate it, but defense wins games. Defense wins championships. Look at the Oilers game on Saturday—we scored five goals (a decently high amount) and LOST because our defense wasn't there.

The goals will come. Now buckle down, and keep the other team OUT.