Bleacher Report - Articles by Duane Winn

Dunkirk Will Prevail In Wide Open Belmont Stakes

Duane Winn — Fri, 05 Jun 2009 19:53:44 -0400

Saturday is the day for the 141st Belmont Stakes and the one-and-one-half mile race shapes up like this: Kentucky Derby winner Mine That Bird, Peter Pan victor Charitable Man, and the rest of the field.

The rest of the field consists of eight horses: a Grade III winner at Hollywood Park, a pair of horses that have each finished on the board in a Grade I stake race; a listed winner in Maryland; a pair of allowance winners; and two maiden winners.

Can any of these seemingly outclassed horses spring an upset?

Well, the Belmont Stakes is just the place for something weird to happen.

As trainer Nick Zito remarked, funny things happen on the way to the winner's circle in the Belmont.

He should know.

Zito conditioned Birdstone (2004) and Da'Tara (2008) to win the Belmont at generous odds.

Yet, if Mine That Bird and Charitable Man live up to their most recent races, every one else will be running for expense money.

Mine That Bird, following an incomprehensible stretch drive to win the Run For the Roses at odds of 50-1, turned in another moxie-laden effort to nail second in the Preakness behind filly flash Rachel Alexandra. The consensus is that Mine That Bird merely ran out of room or he would be looking to complete the Triple Crown sweep Saturday.

Charitable Man won the Grade Two Futurity as a two-year-old at Belmont. Following a dreadful performance in the Blue Grass Stakes on Keeneland's synthetic surface, the son of the Lemon Drop Kid redeemed himself with a scintillating victory in the Peter Pan, recording the fourth-fastest time in the stake's history.

Jockey Calvin Borel guarantees that Mine That Bird will capture the Belmont.

Charitable Man's trainer Kiaran McLaughlin said he wouldn't exchange places with anyone.

Both horses have turned in brisk workouts, as if to underscore their fitness and their willingness to back up their connection's contentions that they're horses to beat.

As for the others, the only graded stakes winner among them is Chocolate Candy, winner of the Grade III El Camino Real Derby. But he has competed almost exclusively on synthetic surfaces. His only try on dirt, a fifth-place finish in the Kentucky Derby, was inconclusive.

Nobody can predict how Mr. Hot Stuff, another synthetics specialist, will run on the dirt.

Was his abysmal performance in the Preakness a result of bad racing luck, a dislike of the surface, or a combination of both?

Lukas, the winner of four Belmonts, will send Luv Gov and Flying Private, to do battle Saturday. Neither horse has won anything but a maiden race, but both seem to run better as the distance lengthens.

Miner's Escape, the winner of the Federico Tesio Stakes in his last start, is trained by the ubiquitous Zito. He will also send out Brave Victory, a horse who have never won at a distance longer than seven furlongs.

Dunkirk, an upstart who was unraced at two, elbowed his way into the Triple Crown picture with a second-place finish in the Florida Derby, earning the highest speed rating among all the horses in the field.

And then there's Summer Bird, a horse who won his first race in March and who will be donning blinkers for the first time.

Of these, Dunkirk seems to have the best chance of staging an upset. The son of Unbridled's Song has a stamina- and class-laden family tree, and he is trained by Todd Pletcher, a former Lukas assistant who wins prestigious races with nearly the same frequency as his mentor in his heyday.

Another solid upset possibility is Flying Private, who was flying down the stretch at Churchill Downs to finish fourth. If he wins, it would be Lukas' 14th Triple Crown victory, which would allow him to forge ahead of Sunny Jim Fitzsimmons.

I'm taking the bit for Dunkirk. I like his performance in the Grade I Florida Derby, a runner-up finish in only his third career start. I respect his connections and I like his running style, which will place him in the middle of the pack, poised to pick up the pieces if the front runners falter.

This will be Mine That Bird's third race in 35 days, the primary reason I think he will come up empty Saturday. I also believe his stretch-running style puts him at a distinct disadvantage when one considers Belmont Stakes history. Horses who are close to the lead at the five-sixteenths pole are more likely to win the race than the Silky Sullivan types.

Charitable Man's victory in the Peter Pan was less impressive than it looked. He profited from suicidal fractions set by Hello Broadway (a 44.89 half-mile and a 1:08.93 for six furlongs) and he won against a softer field than he will meet Saturday.

An Enigma Named Mr. Hot Stuff

Duane Winn — Fri, 05 Jun 2009 13:38:01 -0400

Perhaps more than any horse in the field of the Belmont Stakes, it's almost impossible to predict what Mr. Hot Stuff is going to do Saturday.

He showed absolutely nothing as a juvenile in three races on the West Coast.

Trainer Eoin Harty freshened him for a month after his final start in 2008, and Mr. Hot Stuff responded with a third place finish in his first outing as a three-year-old. He finally broke through to victory in his fifth career start at Santa Anita.

Mr. Hot Stuff followed that sterling effort with a third place finish in the Grade Three Sham and a runner-up finish to highly regarded Pioneer of the Nile in the Grade One Santa Anita in his next two races.

It looked as if Mr. Hot Stuff had found his best stride with the Kentucky Derby looming on the horizon.

We'll never know.

Bumped and squeezed at the start, Mr. Hot Stuff finished 15th in the Run for the Roses in his first career on dirt—23 lengths behind Mine That Bird.

Harty says he's going to "throw" Mr. Hot Stuff into the Belmont to see if the colt can atone for his desultory performance in the Kentucky Derby.

The truth of the matter is that Harty doesn't do thing anything in such a haphazard fashion.

Harty is not as well known to the casual racing observer as D. Wayne Lukas or Nick Zito, or even Todd Pletcher and Kiaran McLaughlin for that matter. But a glimpse at the record shows that he's a dangerous trainer when there's a big purse up for grabs.

Harty conditioned Colonel John to win last year's Santa Derby and Travers stakes. His Well Armed won the $6,000,000 Dubai World Cup earlier this year by 14 lengths. In 2001, Harty sent out Tempera and Imperial Gesture to win a pair of Breeders' Cup races.

Could Mr. Hot Stuff join this illustrious group?

Harty acknowledges that Mr. Hot Stuff is not as precocious as his full brother Colonel John.

But he may not have to be to win the Belmont.

With flashy filly Rachel Alexandra on the sideline, Mine That Bird holds a distinct class edge. He's the only Grade One stakes winner in the group.

However, Dunkirk, Chocolate Candy and Mr. Hot Stuff have each hit the board in a Grade One.

The other horses in the field have either not run in a Grade One race or were unplaced.

Fitness shouldn't be a problem. Mr. Hot Stuff put in a series of solid works recently at Keeneland's synthetic track which suggest he's ready to go.

As a son of Tiznow, who sired 2008 Belmont winner Da'Tara, stamina shouldn't be a problem either.

The major question that revolves around Mr. Hot Stuff is whether he can show the same form on dirt as he has on the synthetic surfaces of the California racing circuit.

Harty, for his part, says that he doesn't think that should be a problem.

In an interview before last year's Kentucky Derby, Harty voiced the opinion that the softer synthetic surfaces actually keep horses fitter than if they had run exclusively on dirt.

We'll find out Saturday.

Wattie Holm's Final Out

Duane Winn — Wed, 03 Jun 2009 22:48:22 -0400

The Rev. L.H. Preul, pastor of Grace Methodist Church in Spencer, IA, selected the 99th Psalm to address the mourners who gathered at the Cobb-Warner Funeral Home in Spencer at 1:30 p.m., Monday, May 22, 1950.

There are bible verses that contain themes of hope, trust in God, the expectation of a better life for the deceased who lived his or her life following Christ, and forgiveness, redemption and virtue. The 99th Psalm firmly asserts the providence and power of God in the face of all things, no matter how tragic or inexplicable and instructs others in His faith and obedience.

How else could one give meaning to the macabre event which transpired three days earlier in Everly, IA?

On the morning of Friday, May 19, after shooting his wife and wounding his daughter, Roscoe “Wattie” Holm, 48, a former utility man for the St. Louis Cardinals, turned a revolver on himself and took his own life with one shot to the head.

Ella Holm, a seventh- and eighth-grade teacher for the Everly school system, was shot through the back of the neck as she was packing in the family’s upstairs apartment.

The family was planning to move to Linn Grove, a place where she and her husband had once lived in a house on a picturesque hillside surrounded by woods. She was planning to work at a ladies ready-to-wear store in Spencer.

Margaret Holm, 14, was struck by one bullet which entered her left wrist and lodged near the elbow. Her arm had been broken by the impact of the bullet. She was rushed to a Spencer hospital for treatment. She attended the funeral service for her parents Monday afternoon, but then was taken back to the hospital.

The Holm’s other child, Robert, 20, was working in Humboldt at the time of the shooting. He reached Spencer before noon. He visited his sister in the hospital and then talked with relatives and well-wishers. He was doing his best, under the circumstances, to keep his emotions in check.

The only other eyewitness to the event, other than Margaret Holm, was Fred Sindt, the owner of the apartment in which Holm and his family lived. He told reporters that he had talked with the Holms moments before the tragedy occurred.

As he reached the bottom of the stairs, he heard two shots fired, followed shortly afterwards by Margaret Holm’s screams of terror. Then there were two additional gunshots, Sindt said.

Margaret came running down the stairs toward him. Seeking protection, she rushed into the Sindt apartment, evading “another bullet fired by her father (that) would have hit her in the back as the missile tore through the screen door.”

Sindt rushed out the door to summon Mayor Andy Schoenewe of Everly.

“When I returned,” said Sindt. “Holm was lying at the foot of the stairs dead. His head, resting near the rear door of the house, was almost completely blown off. The revolver rested next to his hand.”

Sindt couldn’t offer any reason that led to the terrible incident. He hadn’t noticed anything amiss as he talked to the couple. The Spencer Daily Reporter related that the conversation between Sindt and the Holms focused on “rental matters.”

The Everly News reported that Holm had been very moody for the past couple of years. For a time he worked for Slagle Lumber Company in Everly and later was employed at Sportsman Store at Spencer. In fact, he quit the latter job five days before the incident after working there for just six weeks.

Holm’s recent past followed a template that he struck after he left organized baseball. He had held several jobs, never seemingly able to find a career that suited him as well as athletics.

It was this inability to achieve success off the diamond that led many who knew him well to posit this as the triggering mechanism that sent Holm into a maddening abyss of despair.

J.T. Even, a close boyhood friend of Holm and president of the local baseball association, had traveled to Everly to interview the former Cardinal as a possible candidate to manage the Alton semiprofessional baseball team. What he discovered shocked and saddened him.

“His friend was a sick man at that time, according to Mr. Even, so he could not recommend him as manager of the local club," the Alton Democrat related.

Dr. L.F. Frink, the county coroner, stated the day after the shooting that Holm was suffering from mental illness prior to the incident. He added that Holm had been going through a “depressive period for some time,” but that there was “no apparent exciting motive for the shootings, except that the family had been forced to move from their apartment.”

Whatever Roscoe Holm’s affliction, one inescapable reality emerged: The love of his wife, who remained faithful to him no matter what and who “offered him every encouragement to recover his normal outlook, which was friendly and carefree,” was not enough to avert a family tragedy.

The baseball world had largely forgotten him by the time he died. Less than two years earlier, Babe Ruth’s death had spurred waves of international mourning. His zest for life and diamond exploits had made him a cultural icon. His death led to his apotheosis as a baseball immortal.

Holm died in total obscurity without leaving a litany of baseball accomplishments or as much as a single great moment that would outlive him. Yet, there were thousands of northwest Iowans who looked beyond the circumstances surrounding Holm’s death and were genuinely saddened by his passing.

For there was time when residents of Holm's home town breathlessly awaited word of his exploits in the next issue of the local newspaper.

“He was a terrific athlete, good at everything,” recalled Orval Madden, who played for an Aurelia semiprofessional baseball team which Holm managed.

It was Holm’s father who encouraged young Wattie to attend the University of Iowa. Holm was advised by his father to seek a degree in dentistry like his brother (a talented baseball player in his own right who once hurled for the Doon, IA, town team) and not to bank on making his livelihood in athletics “since the average baseball player’s career is a short one.”

With the help of a minor league manager, Holm secured a tryout with the St. Louis Cardinals in 1923. Manager Branch Rickey liked what he saw, declaring Holm a strong contender for shortstop. Rickey added that the development of a shortstop was a key link in the Cardinals’ pennant hopes that year.

Ultimately, Rickey sent Holm to their farm club in Syracuse for more seasoning. Holm started out in the infield at Syracuse, but was switched to the outfield.

In July, Rickey visited the Syracuse ballclub and at his behest, Holm was soon back at shortstop so the Cardinal brass could make a fresh appraisal of his skills. Holm was injured September 1 which kept him out for the balance of the season.

In 1924, Holm was recalled by the parent club and ordered to report to Bradentown, Fla., in the spring. Wattie, this time around, had all the bases covered, in a manner of speaking.

Holm was shooting for a slot in the infield, but once Rickey discovered that Holm was also a catcher, “and as he needed catchers just then he told me to consider myself a catcher and to prove to him that I was a big league catcher,” Holm recalled.

“I tried hard enough and was getting by pretty well when he switched on me one day and told me to play the outfield. I managed to make the grade as an outfielder and, as the saying goes, here I am," Holm told the Pittsburgh Chronicle Telegraph.

The Pittsburgh Chronicle Telegraph likened him to Babe Ruth, Bill Terry, George Sisler, Rube Bressler and Clarence Mitchell, who were pitchers at heart, but showed their true mettle as all-around ballplayers.

The newspaper acknowledged that the comparison between the relatively untested Holm and these superstars was stretching things a bit but “this being the day of specialization,” a player of Holm’s versatility was viewed as a rare commodity indeed.

Yet, Holm’s career would never reach majestic proportions, although he was consistently lauded by the press as an underrated member of the Cardinals whose value to the team was rooted in his desire, baseball sense, versatility and speed, qualities for which members of a later edition of the Cardinals, “The Gashouse Gang,” would be immortalized.

In 1924, in his first season with the Cardinals, Holm played as a catcher, third baseman and outfielder. In 81 games, he batted .294. All but 14 of his 86 hits were singles, marking him as a good contact hitter with a keen eye at the plate.

Holm was sent down to Rochester in May 1925 due to a hitting slump. Rickey, though, said that he had every confidence that Holm would regain his batting eye, an indication that the Cardinals still considered him a potential front-liner.

Holm, though, never recovered his batting stroke that season as he hit just .207 in just 58 plate appearances for St. Louis. Like the season before, Holm was hobbled by a late-season injury.

Playing exclusively in the outfield in 1926, Holm strode to the plate 144 times and batted .285 for the Cardinals. In the World Series, against the New York Yankees, Holm produced a run-scoring single in the sixth game that helped propel the Cardinals to a 10-2 victory.

In 1927 and 1928, Holm enjoyed his finest—and fullest—seasons with the Cardinals, He played in 97 games in 1927, batting .286 and driving in 66 runs, a career high, in 419 at-bats. In 1928, Holm hit for a .277 average in 83 games, enjoying another productive season with 47 runs batted in. He appeared in only three World Series game against the New York Yankees.

Holm injured himself in May 1929, colliding with the right field wall at Sportsman’s Park. The injury possibly explained why Holm, in 69 games, slumped to a .233 batting average.

In 1930, Holm was sent down to Houston. The following year, he was playing for Rochester. Holm rejoined the Cardinals for a brief time in 1932. His last Major League game was Aug. 8 of that year.

Holm opened up a gas station in Storm Lake in 1933. In 1937, he was appointed deputy sheriff of Buena Vista County. Throughout this time, he continued to play baseball for semiprofessional teams in Storm Lake, Alton and Aurelia.

In 1946, while living in Linn Grove, Holm and Victor Shirk announced they were going into the business of manufacturing baseball bats. The bats they produced were going to be termed The Hawkeye Wonders and already a company had placed an order for 100 dozen, although the partners had not yet secured a factory.

Holm said that, as a former big leaguer, he knew what hitters were looking for in a bat. Once the wrinkles in the fledgling business were ironed out, he expressed confidence that he could obtain as many endorsements from Major League ballplayers as Louisville Slugger.

The assembly line that would lead to riches never materialized. Instead, the venture became another in a long line of disappointments for Holm. Perhaps it was the circumstance that led to his final desperate act a few years later.

Relating the tragedy to area newspapers shortly after the tragedy, Buena Vista County Elmer F. Zinn said that two rings were found on Holm’s fingers. One was inscribed, “St. Louis Cardinals. World Champions 1926.” The other bore the inscription, “Rochester Red Wings. Champions 1931.”

Top 10 Headhunters in Baseball

Duane Winn — Wed, 03 Jun 2009 21:52:34 -0400

Baseball Digest magazine called Early Wynn the "grimmest pitcher" in baseball. Whether he was not, Wynn perpetuated the perception by telling everyone within earshot that he'd hit his own mother if she stood between him a victory. Sal Maglie was another pitcher who supposedly had a poor regard for the welfare of his fellow man. His nickname, "The Barber" contains all you need to know about his willingness to offer an enemy batter a close shave, with or without his consent.. Yet, their career statistics belie their reputation. Wynn hit just 64 batters in 4564 innings; Maglie plunked 44 in 1723 innings. There are plenty of current MLB hurlers who have long ago eclipsed Wynn's and Maglie's totals.

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D. Wayne Lukas: Teetering on the Brink of Racing Immortality?

Duane Winn — Wed, 03 Jun 2009 19:14:43 -0400

What do Tigers Woods and D. Wayne Lukas have in common?

They're both courting immortality in their respective sports.

Woods has amassed 14 majors, four fewer than Jack Nicklaus.

Lukas has 13 Triple Crown victories, including a sweep in 1995 with two different horses. He is tied for the top spot in classics victories with Sunny Jim Fitzsimmons.

Woods and Lukas are men whose competitive fire runs white-hot.

"I don't go to an event that I don't think I can win," Woods told pgatour.com.

"I'm not here to eat the crab cakes," Lukas said famously before a Preakness.

This burning desire to be the best led them to redefine what it takes to be at the top of their professions.

Woods didn't merely beat the field; he humbled it.

Lukas gobbled up stakes victories like M & M's.

But there the similarity ends.

Time is clearly on Woods' side.

At age 34, Woods should have at least 10 years of productive golf ahead him.

Remember that the Golden Bear captured six majors after the age of 35. His last, the 1986 Masters, came in the twilight of his career at age 46.

Time, however, isn't Lukas' ally.

Lukas no longer dominates the Triple Crown, the Breeders Cup or any other big-time race that he chooses to enter.

He's saddled nearly 100 Triple Crown entrants, but less than a pair of handfuls in the new millennium.

Indeed, Lukas, 73, hasn't saddled a Triple Crown winner since Commendable captured the 2000 Belmont Stakes.

Yet, Lukas is back to take another run at Fitzsimmons in Saturday's Belmont Stakes with two colts named Flying Private and Luv Gov.

The former, a son of 2000 Kentucky Derby winner Fusaichi Pegasus, has showed glimpses of living up to his name, especially by finishing a fast-closing fourth in the Preakness after encountering all sorts of traffic trouble.

Luv Gov, sired by Ten Most Wanted, finally broke through into the win column on May 2. Lukas entered him in the Preakness 13 days later where he finished a desultory eighth.

Lukas will saddle his charges in the unaccustomed role of spoiler. His former assistants, Kiaran McLaughlin, who trains Charitable Man, and Todd Pletcher, whose charge is Dunkirk, will share the role of kingpins with Mine That Bird trainer Bennie Woolley Jr.

They'll vie at a venue where Lukas enjoyed a remarkable string of success in the mid-1990's with victors Tabasco Cat (1994), Thunder Gulch (1995), Editor's Note (1996) and again, in 2000, with Commendable.

Both Tabasco Cat and Thunder Gulch flashed plenty of talent before they arrived for the Belmont Stakes. Tabasco Cat had placed third in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile and second in the Santa Anita Derby before winning the Preakness. Thunder Gulch had won the Remsen, the Fountain of Youth, and the Florida Derby.

His other two Belmont winners, Editor's Note and Commendable, both displayed a similar career arc as Lukas' entries this year.

Off their past performances, Flying Private seems to be the most talented of the two. He finished second in the Grade Two Lane's End in March and then followed that effort with a respectable fifth-place finish in the Arkansas Derby.

Yet, it's Luv Gov, Lukas said, who might savor the added distance of the Belmont Stakes and surprise the field.

Who are we to argue?

Rivals, as well as bettors, have overlooked Lukas’s horses before. In 1999, Charismatic captured the Derby at odds of 31-1. Later that year, Cat Thief won the Breeders’ Cup Classic at 20-1. In 2000, Commendable copped the Belmont at odds of nearly 19-1 and his filly Spain won the Breeders’ Cup Distaff at 53-1.

Results like these lend instant credibility to fellow trainer Larry Jones' witticism a few years back that a donkey would be a legitimate threat under Lukas' tutelage.

Flying Private and Luv Gov have two victories in 23 starts between them. Neither colt has captured a graded stakes.

Perhaps Lukas can work out the kinks in his magic wand to add one more entry to his already impeccable resume.

Why Chocolate Candy Won't Win the Belmont Stakes

Duane Winn — Mon, 01 Jun 2009 21:08:12 -0400

There are bound to be plenty of people who will be sweet on Chocolate Candy's prospects for victory in Saturday's Belmont Stakes.

This craving could cost bettors a few "empty calories."

Like Mine That Bird, the winner of the Kentucky Derby and runner-up in the Preakness, Chocolate Candy has hit the board in seven of 10 races. He owns victories in the Real Quiet Stakes last November, the California Derby in January and the Grade Three El Camino Real Derby one month later.

Chocolate Candy also has posted a second and a third in a pair of Grade One stakes both won by Pioneer of the Nile, who finished a well-beaten second in the Kentucky Derby.

So what's not to like about this smooth runner?

For one thing, Chocolate Candy has raced all but one of his races on synthetic surfaces in California. His only race on the dirt, in the Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs, was maddeningly inconclusive. He was squeezed at the start, 17th in the field at one point, but rallied for a respectable fifth in the slop.

So, the jury is still out whether Chocolate Candy is merely a synthetic specialist or a horse who can adopt to the dirt confection of Belmont Park.

Let's not forget that Mine That Bird won four of six races on the synthetic surface in Canada, then lost two dirt races before he surprised the racing world in the Kentucky Derby.

Trainer Jerry Hollendorfer is taking every precaution to see that Chocolate Candy gets his fill of "The Big Sandy" before race day. The son of Candy Ride has put in a series of brisk workouts at Belmont Park over the past three weeks that has his connections raving about his chances.

The trend coming off of the synthetic tracks—as far as what we believe in California—is that we think our horses move up a little bit on the dirt, and they seem to handle it well,” Hollendorfer told Bloodhorse.com.

Yet, on his best day, Chocolate Candy seems to be a cut below the top horses. He's good enough to finish in the money in big races but not brilliant enough to be a champion.

None of the horses that Chocolate Candy conquered in the California Derby or the El Camino Real has emerged as a Grade One stakes winner. Which makes one wonder if Chocolate Candy was merely the best of a mediocre lot.

Chocolate Candy's best Beyer Speed Rating is a 94 for 1 1/8 miles or longer. This places him near the back of the pack with Miner's Escape, Miner's Escape, Luv Gov and Brave Victory, other probable entrants in Saturday's race.

All that said, Chocolate Candy always seems to give his best effort. In the eight races between his desultory debut in which he finished sixth and his most recent race in the Kentucky Derby, Chocolate Candy never finished farther back than three lengths off the lead in any of the races which he didn't win.

That's because Hollendorfer, Chocolate Candy's trainer, is much more than just a competent horseman.

Hollendorfer is the king of Northern California, having won 32 consecutive trainer's titles at Golden Gates Field and 37 consecutive titles at Bay Meadows.

Just this year alone, Hollendorfer has saddled 113 winners in 520 starts (21 percent), with an uncanny in-the-money-percentage of 56 percent. During his career, Hollendorfer's horses have won more than 5,000 races and $100 million.

Yet, the big horse has always eluded him.

Although he's saddled numerous graded stakes victors, Hollendorfer is 0-for 4 in the Kentucky Derby and his only Belmont starter, Globalize, finished 10th in the 2000 Belmont Stakes.

Garrett Gomez will be aboard Chocolate Candy for the first time since he rode him to victory in the Real Quiet.

Since 2006, Gomez has won such notable races as the Wood Memorial, the Haskell Invitational, the Travers Stakes and the Kentucky Oaks, as well as eight Breeders' Cup victories.

Why "Team Zito" can't Win the Belmont Stakes

Duane Winn — Sun, 31 May 2009 19:17:51 -0400

Call it the "Nick Zito Effect".

Hall-of-Fame trainer Nick Zito has saddled 20 horses in the Belmont, and 11 of them have finished in the money.

In 2004, Birdstone, at odds of 38-1, upset Smarty Jones' bid to sweep the Triple Crown by a length.

Another Zito long shot, Da'Tara, foiled Big Brown's quest for a Triple Crown in 2008.

Zito will likely be sending out two more long shots Saturday in hopes of winning a third Belmont in six years.

Brave Victory

It took Brave Victory three tries to break his maiden in top company on the New York racing circuit.

Nothing remarkable there, but in his second race, Brave Victory lost by less than a length to Regal Ransom, who was the leading three-year-old grade stakes winner prior to the Kentucky Derby.

Brave Victory fizzled in his next outing, finishing seventh in the Grade One Champagne at Belmont. One month later, he disappointed again with a fifth-place finish in the Grade Three Iroquois at Churchill Downs.

After winning an allowance race at Gulfstream Park folowing nearly a three-month layoff, Zito entered him in the Grade Three Swale. He responded with a fourth-place finish in a six-horse field.

Brave Victory failed to redeem himself in the Grade Two Lexington at Keeneland, a major prep race for the Kentucky Derby, finishing seventh behind winner, Advice.

Brave Victory, however, earned a shot at the Belmont with a third in last month's Peter Pan, a race won handily by Charitable Man, another Belmont hopeful.

Zito's charge has been at his best when the pace has been suicidally fast. If the frontrunners set those type of fractions in the Belmont, Brave Victory could be in the picture.

Brave Victory is among the first crop of three-year-olds sired by Lion Heart, who finished second to Smarty Jones in the 2004 Kentucky Derby. Thus far, Lion Heart runners, according to thoroughbredreview.com, aren't setting the racing world on fire. They have averaged $5,659 in earnings. Only five percent of his starters have won stakes.

This will be Rajiv Maragh's first Belmont Stakes mount. He willl be at a competitive disadvantage against the likes of Calvin Borel, Kent Desormeaux, John Velasquez, and Edgar Prado.

Miner's Escape

Miner's Escape copped the Federico Tesio Stakes at Pimlico in his last start.

While the victory signals that he is a vastly improved horse, his winning time of 1:51.23 over one-and-one-eighth miles was the second-slowest time in the past 12 editions of the race.

Although trainers often use the race as a stepping stone to the Preakness and Belmont, only one winner in the 29-year history of the race, Deputed Testamony, went on to win the Preakness (1983). None have won the Belmont.

Many Tesio winners—like Concerto, Broad Brush, and Private Terms—discovered their best strides as four-year-olds.

Sired by Mineshaft, he is bred to run all day.

However, be advised that Mineshaft did his best running as a four-year-old in 2003 when he was named Champion Older Horse.

In a race that shapes up to be devoid of pace, Miner's Escape is sure to be on the lead. He was on or near the lead in both of the races which he has won. If he's able to set comfortable fractions, he may be able to sneak a victory, or at least finish on the board.

Neither Zito charge seems to have solid enough credentials to win the Belmont. But that's what they said about Da'Tara in 2008.

Zito said Sunday that Nowhere to Hide, who finished 17th in the Kentucky Derby, will likely not run Saturday.

Why Mine That Bird Can Win the Belmont Stakes

Duane Winn — Sun, 31 May 2009 14:35:40 -0400

Revisionists are everywhere, especially in the field of thoroughbred racing.

They busied themselves moments after the running of this year's Kentucky Derby, deconstructing Mine That Bird's miracle run down the stretch to capture the first leg of the Triple Crown.

Washington Post columnist Andrew Beyer called it "one of the biggest upsets in the history of American racing.

"In my four decades of covering the sport, it ranks as one of the most mystifying results in a major stakes race, along with Canonero II's victory in the 1971 Derby," Beyer wrote in a column two days after this year's Kentucky Derby.

Beyer noted that a confluence of several factors contributed to "the perfect storm" represented by Mine That Bird's victory.

Mine That Bird, for one thing, took advantage of a gutsy ride by Calvin Borel, the only jockey who seemed to realize that being close to the rail was the place to be.

The colt also relished the sloppy conditions of the race more than any other horse in the race, as evidenced by his shockingly easy victory of nearly seven widening lengths.

Finally, Beyer said the mediocre speed figures compiled by the horses leading up to the race compelled him to the conclusion that this year's field was one of the softest in history—any horse could have won, given the right set of circumstances.

Beyer, considered the godfather of modern speed handicapping, wasn't being unkind. He's spent a lifetime of looking beyond the surface appearance of things to arrive at the truth.

But even Beyer became a mild convert to Mine That Bird's cause when the gelding raced his heart out to finish a rapidly closing second to Rachel Alexandra in the Preakness.

With Rachel Alexandra out of the Belmont picture, Mine That Bird is poised to reap his just desserts if he can capture the final leg of the Triple Crown.

He will likely be the overwhelming betting favorite on Saturday—he will certainly be the sentimental favorite.

Mine That Bird is the type of racehorse that captivates the racing public. He's a classic closer, seemingly waiting at the back until the last possible second to launch a breathtaking, do-or-die rush.

However, closers don't fare all that well in the Belmont Stakes, even if the distance is a generous one-and-a-half miles.

Belmont Stakes victory almost always goes to a runner that remains in contact with the field early and has only a few lengths to make up to pass the front runners in the final half mile. Most Belmont winners stay with the leaders until midway around the far turn, and only get asked for their very best in one final drive.

Mine That Bird had shown the ability to run closer to the place earlier in his career. Then trainer Chip Wooley took over his care and transformed him into this generation's Silky Sullivan. If his handlers feel the need to stay in touch with the pack, one wonders whether Mine That Bird will have enough energy at the finish.

Mine That Bird is a son of Birdstone, the winner of both the Belmont and the Travers, so stamina shouldn't be a question. His fitness will be, though.

Other than Flying Private, Mine That Bird, who will hook up once again with jockey Borel, is the only horse to take part in both the Kentucky Derby and the Preakness. The Belmont will make their third grueling race within 35 days, a distinct disadvantage when one considers that several of the other probables in the race will come into the race with plenty of rest.

Post position also may be a concern if Mine That Bird draws an inside lane. Only four of the past 25 Belmont winners have started from either the first or second post.

However, Mine That Bird, as the only winner of a Grade One Stakes in the field, may enjoy enough of a class advantage to overcome any obstacles.

Why Dunkirk Can Win The Belmont Stakes

Duane Winn — Sun, 31 May 2009 10:55:32 -0400

Trainer Todd Pletcher didn't go from rags to riches when his filly by the same name won the 2007 Belmont Stakes.

Before, the brilliant daughter of A.P. Indy outdueled Preakness winner Curlin to win the 139th running of the Belmont Stakes by a chestnut head, Pletcher was firmly established as one of the top trainers in the United States.

Pletcher's powerhouse stable set single-season records for stakes wins (100) and graded stakes wins (57) in 2006 and earnings ($26,820,243).

Rags to Riches' victory, however, did change Pletcher's Triple Crown fortunes.

It snapped an 0 for forever streak for Pletcher in the Kentucky Derby, the Preakness, and the Belmont.

Pletcher's Triple Crown aspirations reached rock bottom one month before Rags to Riches hit pay dirt. His five entries in the Kentucky Derby-Circular Quay, Cowtown Cat, Scat Daddy, Any Given Saturday, and Sam P-all finished out of the money. To add insult to injury, Scat Daddy and Cowtown Cat, finished 18th and 20th, respectively.

Ready's Echo carried the Pletcher banner into Belmont battle in 2008. He finished in a dead heat for third at odds of nearly 29-1, a sign that the racing world wasn't entirely convinced that Pletcher had developed a Midas touch in the Triple Crown.

Pletcherwill be out to prove the skeptics wrong with Dunkirk, his probable entry in Saturday's Belmont.

Dunkirk won at first asking by nearly six lengths at Gulfstream on January 24th. Three weeks later, he won almost as impressively at his first attempt in stretch-driving fashion at one and an eighth miles.

Dunkirk continued his solid development with a strong second to Quality Road in the Grade 1 Florida Derby next time out. Quality Record covered the one and an eighth miles in near record of 1:47.72, just one and three-fourths lengths ahead of Dunkirk on a racetrack that reputedly didn't favor closers that day.

Dunkirk earned a Beyer Speed Figure of 108 for his effort that day. It's the best mark achieved by an horse in the Belmont field by far at one and an eighth miles.

Dunkirk was sent off at odds of 5-1 in the Kentucky Derby but failed miserably when he stumbled at the start, seemed to lose heart, and subsequently finished 11th, dredging up echoes of previous Triple Crown disappointments for Pletcher.

Dunkirk has the proper pedigree, as befits a yearling with a $3.7-million price tag, to make amends Saturday for his poor showing in the Kentucky Derby.

He is the son of Unbridled's Song, a winner of the Breeder's Cup Juvenile and the Florida Derby, both Grade 1 stakes. Unbridled's Song, in turn, has sired 11 Grade 1 stakes winners.

Dunkirk will be ridden by John Velasquez, who so astutely guided Rags to Riches to victory two years ago in the Belmont.

How all this figures in this year's Belmont is anybody's guess.

If Dunkirk wins the Belmont, it wouldn't be the first time that a Triple Crown entrant staged a dramatic turnaround in its next outing.

Point Given, for example, ran an inexplicably poor race in the 2001 Kentucky Derby but went on to win both the Preakness and the Belmont in a breeze.

Birdstone finished eighth in the Kentucky Derby, skipped the Preakness, and then upset Smarty Jones in the 2004 Belmont.

Summer Bird Could Fly Below Radar to Win Belmont Stakes

Duane Winn — Sat, 30 May 2009 20:32:17 -0400

Compared to Mine That Bird, Summer Bird is an odd duck.

Unraced as a 2-year-old, the Tim Ice-trained colt debuted in January. He finished a fast-closing fourth in a maiden race at Oaklawn Park.

Next time out, he handily won at a mile-and-a-sixteenth, beating fellow Belmont Stakes hopeful Luv Gov and six others.

He jostled his way into the 3-year-old classics picture with a surprising third in the Grade II Arkansas Derby three weeks later, prompting racing observers to wonder just how good this colt might become.

Summer Bird didn't supply them with a satisfactory answer in his next outing. He broke 16th in a field of 19 in the Kentucky Derby, but steadily closed on his rivals to rally for sixth place.

Perhaps the Belmont Stakes will finally end the speculation.

The fact that he improved so dramatically, in such a short time, to finish on the board in a graded stakes race, just one-and-a-quarter lengths behind the winner, marks him as a colt with a bright future.

Papa Clem, the winner of the Arkansas Derby, had finished second in races to Pioneer of the Nile, the Kentucky Derby runner-up, and highly regarded Friesan Fire, the victor of the Louisiana Derby.

Old Fashioned was near the top of everyone's list of Kentucky Derby favorites following a seven-and-a-half-length victory in the Grade II Remsen in November at Aqueduct. He earned another victory in the Southwest Stakes and then finished second in the Rebel before his second-place effort in the Arkansas Derby.

Ice, who assisted trainers Morris Nicks, Cole Norman and Keith Desormeaux before striking out on his own last year, has been high on his colt's prospects from the start.

"That colt has a lot of ability, will run long and is still learning," Ice said, according to the Oaklawn Jockey Club Web site. "The nice thing about Summer Bird is that he can run his last quarter in 24 seconds and change. Old-time racing men have claimed for years that a 3-year-old who can finish up like that is a derby horse."

Summer Bird, though, may be more of a Belmont Stakes horse.

He is a son of Birdstone, who won the Grade I Champagne Stakes as a juvenile but then disappointed backers with an eighth-place finish in the 2004 Kentucky Derby. He skipped the Preakness and foiled Smarty Jones' Triple Crown bid in the Belmont Stakes. Birdstone also won the Travers Stakes later that year.

According to Ice, Summer Bird was prevented from racing as a 2-year-old due to problems with his feet. This, however, hasn't dampened Ice's enthusiasm for the big horse in his stable.

“Summer Bird is the real deal... Distance doesn’t seem to be any problem for him. Once he gets some experience, I’m sure we will hear more from him. I’m excited about his future.”

Others will be even more excited if they back Summer Bird with a $2 bet to win and he crosses the finish line first in the Belmont Stakes. He's almost sure to go off at odds or 10-1, perhaps much higher.

Ice is a bit of a long shot, too.

Ice has yet to win a graded stakes as a trainer, much less a Triple Crown race, while D. Wayne Lukas, Nick Zito and Todd Pletcher have combined for 19 Kentucky Derby, Preakness and Belmont Stakes victories.

Summer Bird and Ice: It would make for a doozy of a daily double.

Why Charitable Man Could Win The Belmont Stakes

Duane Winn — Sat, 30 May 2009 17:34:05 -0400

Owner Jess Jackson's decision not to run Preakness winner Rachel Alexandra in next Saturday's final leg of the Triple Crown dramatically improves Charitable Man's chances of earning a victory in the Belmont Stakes.

First, the colt was sired by Lemon Drop Kid, the winner of the 1999 Belmont and Travers stakes, two of the most prestigious races for three-year-olds in American racing. The Lemon Drop Kid added to his resume with victories as a four-year-old in such important stakes races as the Brooklyn, Suburban, Whitney handicaps, and the Woodward Stakes.

Lemon Drop Kid is much more than a one trick-pony. He's proving himself in the breeding shed as well, siring 35 stakes winners, including Lemons Forever, the winner of the 2006 Kentucky Oaks, Citronnade, Gamely Stakes; and Christmas Kid, first across the finish line in the Ashland Stakes.

Second, Charitable Man has the connections.

Trainer Kiaran McLaughlin, a former assistant to Hall of Fame trainer D. Wayne Lukas, conditioned Jazil, the long shot winner of the 2006 Belmont Stakes. It was McLaughlin's first Triple Crown victory.

The year before, McLaughlin's Closing Argument, nearly pulled off another classic upset, ultimately finishing second at odds of more than 70-1 in the Kentucky Derby.

In addition to Charitable Man, McLaughlin also has another crack three-year-old in training, Mr. Fantasy, who captured the Grade III Withers Stakes.

McLaughlin also has trained such Eclipse Award contenders as Invasor, Henny Hughes, and Flashy Bull; all winners of Grade I stakes races. So he knows what it takes to compete at the highest echelon of thoroughbred racing.

Alan Garcia will be riding Charitable Man, as he has in four previous starts. Garcia is a young jockey at the top of his game.

Garcia, who won the Grade Metropolitan Mile at Belmont Park aboard Brisbon on Memorial Day, is also an experienced hand on the New York racing circuit. He won the Saratoga meet last summer, and he won last year's Belmont Stakes with Da'Tara for trainer Nick Zito.

Next, Charitable Man has the racing resume.

Charitable Man signaled that he was a horse with a promising future right off the bat, galloping to an 11 1/2-length victory in his racing debut at Saratoga in August. He followed that effort with a two-length victory at seven furlongs in the Grade II Belmont Futurity a month later.

Charitable Man sustained a saucer fracture to his shin late in the year. His first race back off the layoff was in the Grade II Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland. McLaughlin said his charge didn't like the synthetic surface as he finished a well-beaten seventh behind winner General Quarters.

Back home at Belmont, Charitable Man won the Grade II Peter Pan by nearly four lengths. His winning time of 1:47.13 over 1 1/8 miles was the fourth-fastest in stakes history.

Two of the three horses who ran faster times than Charitable Man fared well in the Belmont Stakes. Coastal won the event in 1979 and Slew o' Gold finished second in 1983.

Oratory holds the Peter Pan stakes record, but his connections passed on the Belmont in 2005.

Yet, a victory in the Peter Pan hasn't exactly served as a springboard to success in the Belmont.

Since 1990, 14 Peter Pan winners have tried the Belmont and only one, A.P. Indy(1992), has found the winner's circle. Three others, Citadeed(1995), Sunday Break(2002), and Sunriver(2006) each finished third.

If you subscribe to the theory that a horse, in order to win the Belmont Stakes, must have raced across the track at least once in its lifetime, well, that's even more reason to like Charitable Man.

Brave Victory and Charitable Man are the only entrants who have run before at Belmont Park.

Charitable Man, however, is the real horse for the course, having won both of his races at the Belmont Park oval.

Be advised, too, that Charitable Man and Mine That Bird are the only two horses who are multiple graded stakes winners. Since graded stakes usually attract the best horses-and the best purses-Charitable Man and Mine That Bird should enjoy a considerable advantage in class over the other runners.

Finally, Charitable Man's racing style augers well for success.

Previous Belmonts show that a horse that is in the lead or close to it more often than not wins the race. Zito-trained Miner's Escape, with Rachel Alexandra's defection, will likely set the pace with Charitable Man, a classic stalker, next in line to pick up the pieces if Miner's Escape falters.

Several of the other Belmont probables such as Mine That Bird, Mr. Hot Stuff, Dunkirk, and Brave Victory have done their best running by coming from well off the pace.

Is Anthony Swarzak a Gem?

Duane Winn — Tue, 26 May 2009 10:51:53 -0400

How good was Anthony Swarzak's MLB debut Saturday against the Milwaukee Brewers?

It was plenty good.

It was better than Johan Santana's first MLB start. It was better than those of Francisco Liriano and Kevin Slowey, too.

Indeed, Swarzak's seven-inning, five-hit gem ranks right up there with the best debut performances by a Minnesota rookie pitcher in the past decade or so.

Swarzak, who walked two and struck out three, became the first rookie hurler for the Twins since 1998 to hurl shutout ball in his first MLB start.

Therein lies a lesson.

One start does not a season, or a career, make.

More often than not, an outstanding debut doesn't mean a thing.

Here's the proof:

1998

Eric Milton (Apr. 5, Kansas City Royals): 6 IP, 6 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 2 BB, 1 SO (W)

He followed up that effort six days later by limiting the Royals to one unearned run in six innings to earn his second victory in as many starts.

Milton fell to earth in his next start. Seattle hammered him for eight hits, which included a two-run shot by Ken Griffey Jr., and seven earned runs in 3 2/3 innings.

Milton finished his rookie season with an 8-14 mark, an ERA of 5.64, and a man-sized WHIP of 1.538.

Milton fashioned a 57-51 record for the Twins before he moved on to Philadelphia in 2004.

Benji Sampson (Sept. 20, Detroit Tigers): 6 IP, 3 H, 0 ER, 4 BB, 9 SO (W)

Rookie Benji Sampson looked like the real deal in 1998.

In five appearances, including two starts, Sampson forged a 1.56 ERA and a 0.923 WHIP in 17.1 innings.

However, it seemed he couldn't get anyone out the following season.

Sampson allowed 15 earned runs in eight innings in his first three starts of 1999. He only started one more game and finished the year with an 8.11 ERA. He was demoted in August to make room for Jason Ryan and never recaptured his early form.

1999

Mike Lincoln (Apr. 7, Toronto Blue Jays): 3 1/3 IP, 7 H, 4 R, 4 ER, 3 BB, 2 SO (L)

Lincoln surrendered two home runs in his MLB start, a telling statistic that would later doom his chances his chances with the Twins. For the following season, Lincoln surrendered 13 homers in 20-2/3 innings, and he was sent to Pittsburgh. Lincoln would never start another MLB game.

Gary Rath (May 25, Seattle Mariners): 3 IP, 5H, 5 ER, 4 BB, 1 SO (L)

Rath, obtained from the Los Angeles Dodgers, would only pitch four more times for the Twins, all in relief.

Joe Mays (June 21, Tampa Bay Rays): 5 IP, 5 H, 1 ER, 2 BB, 4 SO (ND)

Mays spent nearly the first three months of the season in the bullpen before he received his first start.

Mays was a rock in his next three starts, too, allowing just a single earned run in 17 innings, before he was rocked by Pittsburgh for nine hits and six runs in two-and-two-thirds innings.

Mays rebounded in a big way with a three-hit shutout against the Chicago Cubs and eight-plus innings of shutout ball against the Chicago White Sox in his next two starts.

He compiled a 6-9 mark and a 3.72 ERA during his rookie campaign.

Mays suffered through a mediocre season during his sophomore year, but he rebounded in 2001 with a 17-13 record and a sparkling 3.16 ERA to earn All-Star status.

Mark Redman (July 24, Seattle Mariners): 4.2 IP, 4 H, 3 ER, 3 BB, 3 SO (ND)

After appearing in five games in 1999, Redman was installed in the starting rotation in 2000. He started 24 games for the Twins, fashioning a 12-9 record and a 4.76 ERA. He finished fifth in the balloting for Rookie of the Year honors.

In 2001, though, Redman was shipped to the Detroit Tigers in exchange for stopper Todd Jones.

Redman enjoyed his finest year in 2003 with the Florida Marlins, fashioning a 14-9 mark with a fine 3.59 ERA.

Jason Ryan (Aug. 24, Boston Red Sox): 4.1 IP, 4 H, 4 ER, 6 BB, 4 SO (L)

Acquired early in the season from the Cubs for Rick Aguilera, Ryan had spent three of the past four years at the A level. In 1998, he spent the season at AA going 3-13 with a 4.88 ERA. He opened 1999 on a tear, going 5-0 with a 1.41 ERA at AA before being sent to the Twins.

The Twins kept him at AA for about six weeks, moved him up to AAA, and then called him up in August to be part of the rotation.

Ryan's next start six days later was a hard-luck 2-1 loss against Toronto. He allowed Toronto just two hits and three hits as he struck out four.

Ryan finished the season with three quality starts in six games.

He appeared in 16 games in 2000, only one of them a start, and he was ineffective. He surrendered 37 hits, eight of them homers, in 24 innings, with a 7.62 ERA.

2000

Johan Santana (Apr. 7, Kansas City Royals): 5 IP, 5 H, 1 ER, 2 BB, 2 SO (ND)

Following another horrid start against Texas, the 21-year-old future Cy Young winner was relegated to the bullpen until Sept. 21 when he took the mound for a start against the White Sox. He got whacked again, surrendering seven hits and seven earned runs in four-and-two-thirds innings.

In 30 games in 2000, he was 2-3 with a 6.49 ERA.

Santana would win 93 games and two Cy Young awards before the Twins were compelled to trade him to the New York Mets in 2008.

J.C. Romero (July 31, Baltimore): 4.2 IP, 6 H, 5 ER, 2 BB, 4 SO (L)

Romero authored only three quality starts in 11 outings during his rookie season. He finished the season at 2-7 with a hefty ERA of 7.02.

This didn't dissuade the Twins from giving him plenty of starting opportunities in 2001... with equally disastrous results (1-4, 6.23 ERA).

Romero blossomed in 2002 when the Twins moved him to the bullpen (9-2, 1.89 ERA in 81 games).

Matt Kinney (Aug. 18, Toronto Blue Jays): 6.1 IP, 5 H, 2 ER, 4 BB, 2 SO (L)

In eight starts during his rookie season with the Twins, Kinney fashioned a 2-2 mark with a 5.10 ERA.

Kinney disappointed in spring training the following year and spent the entire season at Triple-A.

Kinney, despite battling shoulder soreness, lowered both his ERA and WHIP in 2002 for the Twins in 14 games (12 starts), but it wasn't enough to prevent the Twins from dealing him, along with Javier Valentin in November 2002 to Milwaukee in exchange for minor league righthanders Matt Yeatman and Gerry Oakes.

Kinney went 10-13 in 31 starts for the Brewers in 2003 with a 5.19 ERA.

Neither Yeatman or Oakes made it to the bigs.

2001

Kyle Lohse (June 22, Detroit Tigers): 6.1 IP, 9 H, 4 ER, 1 BB, 5 SO (ND)

Lohse went 4-7 in 19 games (16 starts) during his rookie campaign with a 5.68 ERA.

Lohse won 13 and 14 games, respectively, for the Twins in 2002 and 2003.

On July 31, 2006, the Twins traded Lohse to the Cincinnati Reds for minor league pitcher Zach Ward.

A year later, Lohse was sent packing to Philadelphia, and in 2008, Lohse inked a deal with the St. Louis Cardinals.

Lohse enjoyed a career year in 2008 for the Cardinals with 15 wins and just six losses and a 3.78 ERA.

2002

Juan Rincon (July 6, Seattle Mariners): 6.1 IP, 5 H, 1 ER, 2 BB, 4 SO (ND)

Rincon started two more games with mediocre results before the Twins shipped him to the bullpen where he has enjoyed his greatest success.

Rincon was dominant in a reliever's role for the Twins from 2004 to 2006, with an ERA under 3.00 each year and a 20-13 mark.

2003

Grant Balfour (Sept. 3, Los Angeles (Anaheim Angels): 2.2 IP, 4 H, 4 ER, 5 BB, 3 SO (ND).

Balfour had appeared in eight games of relief before the Twins decided to start him against the Angels. His performance was enough to convince Minnesota that his future rested in the bullpen.

The Twins declined to tender Balfour a contract in 2005.

2004

Matt Guerrier (June 17, Montreal Expos): 4 IP, 6 H, 2 ER, 1 BB, 3 SO (ND)

Guerrier would next appear in relief, then spin another bland start in a loss against Milwaukee before the Twins aborted their effort to turn Guerrier into a starter.

Guerrier would find his calling in the bullpen. He enjoyed his best year in 2007 when he appeared in 73 games, fashioning a 2.35 ERA and a 1.045 WHIP.

J.D. Durbin (Sept. 23, Cleveland Indians): 3 IP, 7 H, 5 ER, 4 BB, 2 SO (L)

Drafted by the Twins in the second round of the 2000 amateur draft, Durbin never fulfilled his promise.

After spending 2005 and 2006 in the minors, Durbin was placed on waivers and claimed by the Arizona Diamondbacks in 2007.

2005

Scott Baker (July 5, Los Angeles/Anaheim Angels): 5 IP, 5 H, 2 ER, 2 BB, 5 SO (L)

Baker went 3-3 in 10 games (nine starts) with a 3.35 ERA during his rookie campaign.

Currently the incumbent ace of the Twins' starting rotation, Baker is 30-29 lifetime with a 4.43 career ERA.

Francisco Liriano (Sept. 20, Oakland A's): 3.2 IP, 6 H, 6 ER, 3 BB, 6 SO (L)

His first start gave the Twins no inkling of what type of pitcher Liriano would become in 2006 (12-3, 2.16 ERA).

Liriano, following Tommy John surgery in November 2006, is still attempting to recapture his former brilliance.

2006

Boof Bonser (May 21, Milwaukee): 6 IP, 5 H, 1 ER, 3 BB, 8 SO (ND)

Boonser, who is out for the 2009 after undergoing shoulder surgery, was solid during his rookie season (18 starts, 8-8 record, 4.22 ERA), but regressed in both 2007 and 2008.

Matt Garza (Aug. 11, Toronto Blue Jays): 2.2 IP, 8 H, 7 ER, 2 BB, 2 SO (L)

Garza, the 25th overall selection in the 2005 amateur draft, struggled during his rookie season (3-6, 5.76 ERA), but showed definite signs of putting things together in his sophomore season (5-7, 3.69 ERA).

The Twins, however, dealt Garza, shortstop Jason Bartlett and reliever Eduardo Morlan to the Tampa Bay Rays in November 2007 in exchange for Delmon Young, Brendan Harris and Jason Pridie.

Garza was impressive in his first full season down south. He went 11-9 with a 3.70 ERA. He was named as the ALCS MVP as the Rays locked up their first trip to the World Series.

2007

Kevin Slowey (June 1, Oakland A's): 6 IP, 5 H, 1 ER, 2 BB, 3 SO (ND)

Another highly touted pitcher, Slowey finished 2007 with a 4-1 mark in 13 games (11 starts) and a 4.72 ERA.

Slowey put together an even better campaign in 2008. He went 12-11 with a 3.99 ERA and significantly lowered his WHIP.

Slowey is off to a showy 5-1 start in 2009 with a 4.23 ERA.

2008

Nick Blackburn (Apr. 2, Los Angeles/Anaheim Angels): 7 IP, 5 H, 1 ER, 1 BB, 6 SO (L)

Blackburn, selected in the 29th round by the Twins in the 2001, made his first start at the rather advanced age of 26.

He was a pleasant surprise (11-11, 4.05 ERA), to say the least.

Glen Perkins (May 10, Boston): 6 IP, 9 H, 3 ER, 0 BB, 3 SO (L)

Perkins made 23 relief appearances in 2006 and 2007 before he strode to the mound for the first time as a Twins' starter.

Perkins finished 2008 with a 12-4 record and a 4.41 ERA.

Perkins started 2009 by allowing just four earned runs in 24 innings. He's currently on the disabled list with inflammation of his left elbow.

He was a pleasant surprise in his rookie season with an 11-11 record and a 4.05 ERA in 193-1/3 innings.

Raul Ibanez Is a Freak

Duane Winn — Sun, 24 May 2009 17:54:43 -0400

Noted sabermetrics guru Bill James popularized the concept a while back that a player often peaks at age 27, hits his prime when he's 27-30, and then gradually declines.

Nobody told Raul Ibanez of the Philadelphia Phillies though.

Ibanez is hitting .353 through 42 games with 17 homers and 43 RBI.

These are eye-opening numbers for any major leaguer. They're phenomenal for a guy who will turn 37 on June 2. It seems to be part and parcel of the contrarian career of the former Seattle Mariner.

Here are Ibanez's numbers during his "peak" years.

1999 (Age 27): 83 games, nine HR, 27 RBI, .258 BA, .734 OPS.

2000 (28): 92 games, two HR, 15 RBI, .229 BA, .630 OPS.

2001 (29): 104 games, 13 HR, 54 RBI, .280 BA, .847 OPS.

2002 (30): 137 games, 24 HR, 103 RBI, . 294 BA, .883 OPS.

As if on cue, Ibanez's offensive output began to decline ever so slightly when he reached age 31.

2003 (31): 157 games, 18 HR, 90 RBI, .294 OPS, .799 OPS.

2004 (32): 123 games, 16 HR, 62 RBI, .304 BA, .825 OPS.

2005 (33): 162 games: 20 HR, 89 RBI, .280 BA, .792.

In 2006, at an age (34) when all players' talents have considerably eroded (according to James), Ibanez posted career highs in homers (33) and RBI (123) while batting .280.

His home run output plummeted in both 2007 (21) and 2008 (23), while his RBI totals dipped slightly (2007: 105, and 2008: 110) and his batting average remained more or less constant (2007: .291, and 2008: .293).

One could reasonably expect that Ibanez wouldn't be threatening to shatter personal career milestones in homers, RBI and batting average this season.

The $64,0000 question, of course, is this: Will Ibanez, barring injury, be able to maintain his current pace?

Ibanez's past career profile, before 2009, shows that he's neither a slow or fast starter. In April/May he averaged .273 with 59 long balls and 244 RBI.

Even in his career year in 2006, Ibanez was only hitting .267 with eight homers and 36 RBI by the end of May.

Ibanez traditionally heats up in June (.308 BA, 32 HR, 137 RBI) and then really sizzles in August (.300, 44 HR, 177 RBI).

Ibanez's offensive output is even more remarkable since he's making the transition to a new league. Oftentimes, it takes a hitter, no matter how accomplished, a half-season or longer to make an adequate adjustment to his new surroundings, not to mention new pitchers.

Ibanez is undoubtedly benefiting from having the likes of Ryan Howard and Chase Utley in the lineup. However, this can't entirely explain Ibanez's emergence as one of the most productive sluggers in 2009.

Whatever mysterious confluence of forces are at work, the Phillies' acquisition of Ibanez in December for $30 million over three years is shaping up as one of the shrewdest deals in recent years.

No. 7 or No. 2, It's All the Same for Joe Mauer

Duane Winn — Sat, 23 May 2009 09:30:21 -0400

Success on the baseball diamond has its own timetable.

Witness Minnesota Twins manager Ron Gardenhire's occasional on-again, off-again experiment batting Joe Mauer in the two-hole.

The recent move has kick-started the Twins' offense, enabling them to halt a six-game slide that had many of the players questioning their choice of profession.

The Twins produced a 20-1 victory Thursday against the Chicago White Sox. Mauer, hitting second in the batting order for the first time this season, contributed a pair of doubles and a grand slam for six RBI.

He also scored three runs as the Twins pounded the White Sox for 20 hits, including homers by Michael Cuddyer, Joe Crede, and Matt Tolbert.

Minnesota terrorized Milwaukee with a 12-hit attack en route to an 11-3 victory Friday night. Mauer went hitless, snapping a 14-game streak, but he scored twice and knocked in two more runs.

Gardenhire told MLB.com that he wasn't sure how long he would employ the new batting order, fully realizing that it's not the ideal situation to have arguably the best pure hitter in the game stuck in the two-hole rather than his customary No. 3 spot.

"But I got to find somebody to get more consistent batting in front of (middle of the order] and getting on base. Right now, I don't have anybody swinging good enough to do that," Gardenhire said.

Alexi Casilla manned the spot to begin the season. When he was sent down to Triple-A Rochester, Brendan Harris took over the role and he, too, has failed to deliver the goods expected of a hitter in the two-hole.

Credit Gardenhire for having the bravado to tweak the lineup.

Yet, before we anoint him as a genius, Gardenhire has used the ploy several times in the past...with less than sparkling results.

Before Thursday, Mauer had hit in the two-hole in 33 games since 2004. The Twins only won 14 of those games and scored just 120 runs (3.6 runs per game).

Gardenhire's most sustained use of this gambit came in 2007. The Twins were 29-30 when Gardenhire plugged Mauer into the two-spot on June 8. Over the course of the next 12 games, the Twins managed to play .500 ball.

Mauer, overall, has struggled with this assignment, garnering just 28 hits in 126 at-bats (.222) with a single homer and 14 RBI, a far cry from the numbers he produces in the No. 3 slot.

But that was then and this is now.

Since his return May 1, Mauer is hitting .416 with eight homers in 74 at-bats. He's driven in 26 runs in 20 games.

These numbers suggest that Mauer is transforming himself from a high-average hitter with gap power into an ultimate slugger in the mold of Albert Pujols and Manny Ramirez.

If Mauer's new persona proves to be a chimera, Mauer is still one of those rare hitters who's going to send shock waves through the opposition's pitching staff no matter where he hits.

"He's one of the best in the game at getting on base and knocking the ball and having good at-bats," Morneau told the Associated Press.

"The Mauer Effect" is spreading throughout a substantial portion of the Twins' lineup in 2009.

Since Mauer's return to the Twins' lineup on May 1, Morneau is hitting .333 with five homers and 20 RBI.

Cuddyer, who hit for the cycle on Friday, is setting an even brisker pace, at .354 with six homers and 25 RBI. Jason Kubel, who missed Friday's game due to knee swelling, is hitting at a .375 clip with a homer and seven RBI.

All of this, however, hasn't translated immediately into more wins. The Twins are just 9-12 in May.

This is due primarily to a startling rotation and erratic bullpen, rather than a lack of offense. Before Thursday's and Friday's outburst, the Twins were averaging 5.3 runs per game in May.

With starters Nick Blackburn and Kevin slowly rounding into form, the Twins seem poised for a turnaround.

Mauer, Morneau, Kubel Comprise One of MLB's Top Trios

Duane Winn — Fri, 22 May 2009 09:24:28 -0400

Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau were quickly dubbed the "M & M Boys" when they reached the big leagues.

The moniker isn't new. It was first applied to Mickey Mantle and Roger Maris, who fired the public's imagination in 1961 by combining for 115 homers and 270 RBI.

The tag isn't entirely accurate, either. While Morneau has displayed decent power and an above-average ability to drive in runs, Mauer, until recently, has been primarily a line-drive hitter who has showed an uncanny ability to get on base and a propensity to hit for a high average.

Perhaps it's time, too, for the wordsmiths who come up with those ingenious nicknames to coin another catchy phrase to accurately reflect the modern era "M & M Boys'" unique gifts and teammate Jason Kubel's contributions this season.

How about the "JJJ Trio?"

Or "Mauer, Morneau, Kubel, Unlimited?"

Mauer, who has already captured two batting titles, and Morneau, already the winner of an MVP award, are well on their way toward fulfilling the baseball stardom that was predicted for them. And they show no signs of letting up.

Mauer is fashioning a season for the ages. He leads both leagues in home runs per at-bat (9.0), batting average (.417), slugging percentage (.819), on-base percentage (.500), and OPS (1.319).

He, along with Tampa Bay's Evan Longoria, Boston's Jason Bay, and Philadelphia's Raul Ibanez, are the only major leaguers who are averaging more than one RBI per game.

Morneau, if he is able to keep up his torrid pace (.327 BA, 12 HR, 33 RBI), is on track to hit more than 40 homers and drive in 120-130 runs.

Kubel's performance thus far this season resembles a revelation.

Selected by the Twins in the 12th round of the 2000 amateur draft, Kubel is batting .335, .061 points higher than his career average, and he has five homers and 23 RBI.

Add them together and they comprise one of the most productive offense trios in the majors.

Collectively, the trio is hitting .350 with 25 homers and 80 RBI.

These numbers would be even higher if Mauer's hadn't missed the Twins' first 22 games due to a balky back and Kubel was able to nudge his average against left-handers above the Mendoza Line.

The best part is that Mauer, Morneau and Kubel are all in the 25-29 age bracket. This is considered prime time for MLB ballplayers, years in which many of them post their career-best marks.

This is definitely something for Twins fans to hold on to as the starting rotation and bullpen continues to struggle, and the lesser lights in Minnesota's lineup attempt to keep pace with the torrid trio.

Dark Horses Sometimes Win the U.S. Open, Don't They?

Duane Winn — Thu, 21 May 2009 12:49:45 -0400

Tiger Woods may have lost his dominance, but as the defending champion and the winner of 14 majors, he will likely go off as the consensus favorite in next month's U.S. Open at Bethpage State Park (Black Course).

There are those who will argue the point.

They will point to Woods' balky driver and erratic putting.

They will single out his failure in the Masters.

They will observe that Woods has only won one paltry tournament this year following surgery on his left leg.

Still, despite these "woes," Woods is averaging less than 70 strokes per round on some of the toughest courses in the world.

And if his eighth-place finish this year in the TPC at Sawgrass, his best result there since 2001 when he won the tournament isn't a sign that Woods is rounding into form, it's hard to fathom what would convince his detractors.

A couple other factors auger well for Wood's chances next month.

Long-time nemesis Phil Mickelson will likely miss the tournament due to his wife's bout with breast cancer.

Wood also captured his second U.S. Open title when the was held at Bethpage in 2002.

If Woods does fall short, there are plenty of contenders with credible credentials who will be poised to pick up the pieces.

Among the notables:

Geoff Ogilvy, the winner of the 2006 U.S. Open and three World Golf Championships.

Sergio Garcia, the winner of seven PGA tour events who has finished among the top 10 in 14 major events.

Angel Cabrera, the winner of the 2009 Masters and the 2007 U.S. Open.

Vijay Singh, the winner of 34 PGA Tour events, including three majors.

Paul Casey. who has won the ABU Dhabi Championship and the Houston Open this year. Only 31, Casey has finished in the top 10 four times in major events.

Padraig Harrington, the winner of the 2008 PGA Tour Player of the Year award and three of the past eight majors.

Every so often, though, a dark horse, much like Mine That Bird in this year's Kentucky Derby, charges to the forefront to confound the critics.

Here is a look at some of the unlikeliest U.S. Open winners of the past half-century.

Jerry Pate (1976, Atlanta Athletic Club)

Jerry Pate possessed the golfing pedigree to accomplish great things. He, like Bobby Jones and Jack Nicklaus (later Phil Mickelson and Tiger Woods), was the winner of a U.S. Amateur. He also was a member of the U.S. team which won the Walker Cup and the Eisenhower Trophy.

Few observers, though, could have predicted that Pate, despite his competence on grand stages, would win a U.S. Open title in only his second year on the PGA Tour.

But Pate stared down such legends as Tom Weiskopf, Tom Watson, Jack Nicklaus and Johnny Miller to carve out a two-stroke victory with a three under par total of 277.

Pate would go on to win the Canadian Open later that year and six other PA Tour events.

He nearly won a second U.S. Open title in four years in 1979, ultimately falling two strokes short of Hale Irwin's winning total of 284 at the Iverness Club. Pate tied for second with Gary Player and Larry Nelson.

Steve Jones (1996, Oakland Hills Country Club)

Steve Jones owned four PGA titles before he set foot on the Oakland Hills Country Club to do battle in the 1996 U.S. Open.

But he hadn't won in seven years before he shot a two under par 278 at Oakland Hills Country Club, besting both Davis Love III and Tom Lehman by a single stroke.

Jones overcame more than his share of adversity to earn his only victory in a Major.

Jones missed nearly three seasons due to injury.

And he also had to survive a sectional qualifier to even make the U.S. Open field.

Jones would win three more tournaments over the next two years. But unlike Simpson, Jones' victory at Oakland Hills was his swan song in major tournaments. His highest finish would be a tie for 24th in the 1990 PGA Championship.

Scott Simpson (1987, Olympic Club, Lake Course)

Scott Simpson had participated in 23 majors, fashioning only two top 10 finishes, before he captured the 1987 U.S. Open at the Olympic Club in San Francisco.

Simpson forged a three under par 277 to defeat Tom Watson by a single stroke.

It wasn't the first time that the Olympic Club was the site of an upset, albeit one of more monumental proportions.

Jack Fleck, just a speck on the PGA Tour landscape in 1955, upset the great Ben Hogan by firing a one under par 69 in an 18-hole playoff to capture the U.S. Open that year.

Simpson's performance at the Olympic Club triggered a successful four-year run in the U.S. Open in which he finished no worse than 11th.

Simpson nearly captured the 1991 U.S. Open at Hazeltine National Golf Club. He tied with Payne Stewart with a six under par 282 after 72 holes. He then lost the 18-hole playoff by two strokes.

Simpson had won three tournaments before his U.S. Open triumph. Still, his victory has to rank as a major upset in light of the competition he faced.

In addition to Watson, Simpson beat back the likes of Seve Ballesteros, who had won two Masters and two U.S. Opens; Ben Crenshaw, a Masters champion; and Curtis Strange, who would go on to win consecutive U.S. Open titles in 1988 and 1989.

Michael Campbell (2005, Pinehurst Resort)

Michael Cambell, in 16 previous appearance in majors, had managed just one top 10 finish, a third in the 1995 U.S. Open.

His performances in the U.S. Opens immediately preceding Pinehurst weren't exactly confidence-builders. He missed the cut each time.

None of this mattered the final Sunday of the 2005 U.S. Open when he overcame a four-stroke deficit and foiled Tiger Woods' quest for a 10th major by firing a final-round one under par 69.

Campbell would continue his hot streak with top 10 finishes later that year in The Open and P.G.A. championship. However, his U.S. Open victory is, to date, his only victory on the P.G.A. Tour.

Orville Moody (1969, Champions Golf Club, Cypress Creek Course)

The upset New York Jets, 18-1/2 points underdogs, upset the Baltimore Colts in Super Bowl III.

The Boston Celtics, who had barely made the playoffs by finishing fourth in the Eastern Division, shocked the heavily favored Los Angeles Lakers in the NBA finals.

The New York Mets, MLB's perennial laughingstock since their inception in 1962, knocked off the talent-laden Baltimore Orioles in the World Series.

It was a year rife with upsets, but none was more surprising than Orville Moody's 1969 U.S. Open victory at Champions Golf Club.

Moody's biggest claim to fame before this shocker was victories in three Korean Opens.

Moody didn't join the PGA Tour until 1967 at the advanced age of 34. His one-stroke victory at Champions was his only tour victory, although he later enjoyed considerable success on the Senior Tour.

MLB Believe It Or Not

Duane Winn — Wed, 20 May 2009 02:00:25 -0400

Phillies pitcher Jamie Moyer was born in 1962, but so were Greg Cadaret, Richard Amaral, Tom Bolton, Joe Orsulak, Robby Thompson, Jim Walewander, Orestes Destrade, Alberto Pardo, Oddibe McDowell, Charlie Mitchell, Russ Morman, Kevin Mitchell, Urbano Lugo, Dion James, Bo Jackson, Tom Funk, Jeff Innis, Kelly Gruber, Chuck Finley, Billy Beane, and 119 other Major Leaguers.

Moyer made his Major League debut on June 16, 1986, for the Chicago Cubs against his current employers. The list of ballplayers with Major League experience who weren't even born then includes Chris Volstad, Ryan Tucker, Philip Hughes, Jay Bruce, Cameron Maybin, Justin Upton and the ill-fated Nick Adenhart.

Joe Mauer of the Minnesota Twins belted his seventh homer Tuesday night against the Detroit Tigers. This matches his 2007 power output...in 342 fewer at-bats.

Prior to the 2009 season, Mauer, who owns a .320 career batting average, had only produced 43 long balls in 1155 Major League at-bats.

On the other end of the spectrum, teammate Delmon Young only has two extra-base hits to his credit in 83 at-bats. Twins shortstop Nick Punto has just two doubles in 104 at-bats.

Every other Major League hitter with 75 or more at-bats has at least three extra-base hits.

Here's a vote for Los Angeles Dodger Juan Pierre, the most underrated player in the game today.

Despite a .302 lifetime batting average over a span of 10 seasons, Pierre has never been named an All-Star.

Ironically, Pierre has twice finished 16th or higher in the balloting for the NL MVP award.

Greinke, Willis Help MLB With Need for Hollywood Storylines

Duane Winn — Tue, 19 May 2009 21:00:11 -0400

Last year, Josh Hamilton of the Texas Rangers provided MLB with one of its best feel-good storylines in recent history.

Hamilton had the world at his feet in 1999. He had been selected first overall in the 1999 Major League Baseball Draft by the Tampa Bay Rays. However, he was never able to display his blue-chip talent due to to injuries and chemical addiction.

Hamilton resurfaced in 2007 with the Cincinnati Reds where he hit .292 with 19 homers and 47 RBI in less than 300 at-bats. In 2008, Hamilton finally showcased his remarkable abilities for the Rangers—batting .304, belting 32 homers, and driving in 130 runs.

This year, the MLB season got off to a rocky start with the untimely passing of Los Angeles Angels pitcher Nick Adenhart, coupled with the death of beloved Philadelphia Phillies broadcaster Harry Kalas.

Subsequent controversies involving Alex Rodriguez and Manny Ramirez and their involvement with steroids haven't brightened the Major League scene, either.

There's little doubt that MLB could use a little cheering up.

Fortunately, there are some MLB players and teams this season, just like any other season, that are begging for a story leading to a rousing conclusion that may very well spirit away baseball blues in a few short months.

Will Dontrelle Willis ever recapture his brilliant early career form—or will his comeback to the Major Leagues be short-lived?

Willis was placed on the disabled list before the season's start so he could deal with an anxiety disorder. He lasted four-and-two-thirds innings in his season debut May 13 against the Minnesota Twins, surrendering eight hits, two walks, and four runs.

Willis was even better in his next outing on Tuesday against the red-hot Rangers, pitching scoreless, one-hit ball over six-and-one-third innings. Perhaps it's a sign that Willis still has the goods to help the Detroit Tigers.

Willis can take heart in the template struck by Zack Greinke of the Kansas City Royals.

Greinke left the Royals before the start of spring training in 2006. He was diagnosed with a social-anxiety disorder and depression soon therearfter.

Greinke has apparently conquered his demons. Baseball is fun again for Greinke, and a living hell for his opponents.

Greinke made history earlier this season when he won his first six starts while maintaining an ERA of 0.40 or lower. Only Walter Johnson and Fernando Valenzuela accomplished the feat before him.

Greinke's teammate, Sidney Ponson, and Cleveland's Carl Pavano, are both facing make-or-break campaigns.

Ponson won a career high 17 games for Baltimore and San Francisco in 2003 while maintaining a career low 3.75 ERA. Since this time, Ponson has won just 35 games and lost 45.

The Royals picked him off the scrap heap, hoping he'd be able to eat some innings and lend some experience to the team's youthful pitching staff. In eight games, the enigmatic Ponson has lost four of five decisions and his ERA stands at 6.16, stats which have relegated him to the bullpen.

Pavano has endured as many setbacks as Ponson, although his troubles haven't been self-inflicted.

Pavano had spent most of the previous four seasons on the disabled list with shoulder and elbow problems, making 26 starts and missing the entire 2006 season.

Cleveland took a chance on him, signing him to a one-year contract worth $1.5 million. To say the least, he's been a pleasant surprise in a season packed with bitter disappointments for the Tribe.

Pavano was rocked in his first two starts against the Royals and the Rangers, but he's rebounded with three quality starts in his last six mound appearances, lowering his ERA from 16.71 to 6.33 in just over a month.

San Francisco's Barry Zito finally appears to be recapturing the form which made him one of the most coveted free agents in baseball.

San Francisco captured the Zito Sweepstakes, signing him in December 2006 to a record $126 million deal for seven years.

At the time, Zito's signing looked like a solid investment. After all, Zito had posted a 102-63 mark for Oakland from 2000-06. In 2002, he earned the AL Cy Young Award.

Zito's first two years with the Giants likely made his new employer wish for a bailout.

Zito posted a 21-30 record in his first two years with the Giants. He walked nearly as many as he struck out and his ERA hovered near the 5.00 mark.

In 2009, Zito has lost three of four decisions, but his 3.89 ERA in seven starts is heartening, as is his 2:1 strikeout/walk ratio.

The Toronto Blue Jays and the Texas Rangers are the biggest surprises in the American League, which naturally leads most of us to wonder if they are for real.

Since 2002, the Blue Jays have gotten off to fast starts in both 2003 and 2006, but they were only in playoff contention in 2006. That's the year they finished second to the Yankees.

This year's start is likely no fluke.

Since Cito Gaston—who guided Toronto to two world championships in 1992 and 1993—took over as manager in June 2008, the Blue Jays have been breezing along at a .600 winning clip over the course of nearly 130 games. It's proof positive that Gaston's presence in the club makes all the difference—a winning difference.

Down south, it's been 10 years since Texas appeared in the playoffs and they've only enjoyed one winning season during this period. Therefore, their 23-14 start is a source of great excitement for Rangers' fans.

While the Rangers always have been able to bash the ball with the best of 'em, they've shored up their defense and their starting rotation, (particularly Kevin Millwood, Matt Harrison and Scott Feldman), have been particularly effective.

There are 120 games or so left in the season, plenty of time for these storylines to work themselves out and for new ones to unfold.

Jason Kubel Deserves Some Respect

Duane Winn — Tue, 19 May 2009 03:02:55 -0400

It seems that Jason Kubel of the Minnesota Twins is one of those MLB players who is destined to remain under the radar.

Under appreciated.

Unnoticed.

Underrated.

However, this state of affairs may not last very much longer if Kubel continues to swing the bat with nearly the same ferocity as his more famous teammates, Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau.

Kubel is hitting .336 with five home runs and 20 RBI, ranking him third or better for the Twins in each of those categories. Better still, he ranks second on the Twins in hits and runs scored, third in on-base percentage, and third in slugging percentage.

Solid enough numbers, but they're positively eye-opening when one considers that Kubel hasn't exactly sprinted out of the gate in either April or May during his Major League career.

In 2008, a career year for Kubel in which he authored lifetime bests in homers and RBI, and fell within .001 of matching his highest average, April (.237) and May (.247) ranked among his most unproductive months.

It's pretty clear that Kubel has taken his offense to a new level. On occasion, Kubel has even displayed a flair for the dramatic that seems more worthy of Mauer or Morneau.

During a two-game stretch against the Angels on Apr. 17-18, Kubel garnered eight hits which included hitting for the cycle in a game—a feat that included a grand slam to lift the Twins to a come-from-behind victory.

The feat earned him nationwide notoriety, but the spotlight didn't last long.

A month later, Kubel still isn't a household word, and it may be that there's just a fly-beneath-the-radar element to him that he'll never be able to shake.

The jury is still out whether he can become an everyday player rather than a designated hitter or platoon player.

Yet, this shouldn't diminish Kubel's considerable contribution to the Twins' cause this season.

He has been one of the few constants in a season which has already contained more valleys than peaks for the Twins.

The question is whether Kubel can maintain his offensive pace.

Kubel will turn 27 on May 25. According to sabermetrics guru Bill James, this is the age at which most MLB players produce a career year.

Such a year for Kubel would mean one less question for the Twins to answer as they search for a winning formula that they hope will lead them to an American League Central Division title.

Minnesota Twins Still Haven't Achieved Lift-Off

Duane Winn — Mon, 18 May 2009 19:39:47 -0400

The story for Joe Mauer keeps getting better.

The two-time American League batting champ spent this last offseason recuperating from surgery to remove a kidney obstruction.

Mauer then missed all of spring training—and the first 22 games of the 2009 season—with an inflamed joint in his back that kept him on the disabled list.

No one could predict whether these injuries might add up to a lost season for Mauer.

Not to worry.

It's been all systems-go for Mauer thus far in 2009.

His return to the Twins' lineup on May 1 was the stuff of myth. All he did was belt a homer in his first at-bat against the Kansas City Royals.

But, as they say on late-night infomercials, "But wait...there's more."

Mauer's initial hit was just the beginning of an offensive rampage that may foretell a career year.

In 15 games, Mauer is batting .429, with 12 runs scored and 15 RBI. His on-base percentage (.529) and his slugging percentage (.804) have gone through the roof.

Mauer has even managed to silence the critics who knock him for his lack of power.

With six home runs in just 56 at-bats, Mauer is on pace to shatter his career high of 13 home runs in 2006.

If Mauer, before his recent physical woes, wasn't regarded as one of the best pure hitters in the game, he is now without question.

Unfortunately, the story Mauer is writing is only half-told.

It won't be complete unless the Twins can secure a playoff spot.

Mauer's return to the Minnesota lineup was perceived as the missing ingredient which would lift the Twins into serious contention for the AL Central Division crown.

The Twins, however, still haven't taken off.

The Twins (18-20) are only 7-8 with Mauer in the lineup. Without him, they are 11-12.

They are lucky they're still within striking distance of first place in the AL Central Division, a division in which 85 victories may be enough to capture a title.

Even if they do right the ship, they still must show the AL Central Division crown they hope to wear will be more than just a hollow crown.

The Twins may be able to beat senseless the weak teams in the AL, but against teams with winning records, they've been wretched, winning just three of 14 decisions.

The Twins' weaknesses, which have plagued them all season, really shone through against the New York Yankees in the first three games of a four-game set.

The Twins managed to lose all three games in walk-off fashion as the balky bullpen completely broke down.

At this juncture of the season, it's a matter of conjecture whether Mauer's teammates, with the exceptions of Justin Morneau, Denard Span, and Jason Kubel, can step up their efforts to match the brisk pace set by Mauer.

That's just what it will take. For even a superstar like Mauer can't work work miracles all the time.

So, Tell Me, Is Joe Mauer on Steroids, Too?

Duane Winn — Mon, 11 May 2009 19:56:03 -0400

In the brave new world of the steroids era, nobody is above suspicion in organized baseball.

Not when five of the top 12 all-time fence busters (Barry Bonds, Sammy Sosa, Mark McGwire, Rafael Palmiero, and Alex Rodriguez) are suspected of amassing their home-run totals under questionable circumstances.

Not when the pitcher who's ranked ninth in career wins, Roger Clemens, may forever have to pay the admission price to Cooperstown when he wants in.

Not when one of the top sluggers/hitters in contemporary MLB, Manny Ramirez, was recently caught with his pants down, pardon the pun, and suspended 50 games for violating terms of the game’s substance abuse policy.

Heck, even the language of baseball has been distorted by the spectre of performance-enhancing drugs.

Remember when "the cycle" meant that a hitter stroked a single, a double, a triple, and a homer in one game?

Thanks to Manny, we know that it also refers to HCG-human chorionic gonadotrop and its use by steroid users to restart their body's testosterone production after they come off a steroid cycle.

Unfortunately, the burden of guilt extends to the likes of Joe Mauer, Ken Griffey Jr., Chipper Jones, Cal Ripken Jr., Greg Maddux, Tom Glavine, and a rapidly dwindling list of other recent and current superstars who are considered to be the least likely candidates to run afoul of MLB's substance abuse policy.

From here on out, whenever we see a player do something marvelous that he hasn't done before, we must regard their accomplishments under a cloud of suspicion.

There's Joe Mauer, for instance.

Mauer has been on fire since the Minnesota Twins reinstated him off the 15-day disabled list earlier this month.

"On fire" really doesn't do justice to the offensive tear he's been on. In nine games, he's 16-for-33 for a .485 batting average and nine RBI. He's amassed an on-base percentage of .553 and his slugging percentage is .848. Add them together and that's a stratospheric OPS of 1.401.

This isn't particularly unusual, given the fact that Mauer is a two-time American League batting champion and one of the finest hitters in either league. He's prone to go off on a hot streak at the drop of a cap.

The "red flag" is that Mauer has already stroked three home runs, or a ratio of one home run per 11 at bats.

This is really really surprising since Mauer is known for spraying line drives all over the place, hitting the ball where it's pitched in true old-school fashion, rather than upper-cutting a pitch at every available opportunity in an attempt to jerk the ball over the right-field baggie at the Metrodome.

After all, in 2092 career major league at-bats prior to 2009, Mauer has only belted 47 homers. This works out to one home run per 44.5 at bats.

Just where is this power surge coming from, anyway?

Has Mauer's body finally "matured" so that he's able to pack more wallop in his stroke?

Or has Mauer developed into such an uncanny hitter that he has developed an advanced eye for cripples that he can drive farther and more frequently than before.

How about Zack Greinke?

He's always been blessed with filthy stuff, but can we know for sure that his streak of scoreless innings this spring was on the up and up?

Carlos Pena?

After six mediocre seasons in the bigs, Pena hit 46 dingers for the Tampa Bay Rays in 2007. He followed that with 31 homers a year ago and he already has 13 homers in 32 games thus far in 2009.

How about Albert Pujols, and well, the list goes on and on.

There’s not a single player in baseball who could fail a drug test that would completely shock us.

I can remember how stunned I was when I learned that Mickey Mantle cheated on his wife and drank alcohol to such excess that he ruined his liver.

It just goes to show that baseball, just like most other things, has come full cycle, er, circle.

Twins' Bullpen: Too Many Weak Links

Duane Winn — Mon, 11 May 2009 15:11:51 -0400

Baseball fans, pundits, beat reporters, and major league managers and general managers alike, look to the usual suspects when a team is below the .500 mark at this stage of the season.

Things such as a lack of clutch hitting, an erratic starting rotation, an ineffective bullpen, sloppy fielding, and inattentive base-running.

The Minnesota Twins have suffered breakdowns in all these departments at one time or another thus far this season.

That's why they sit at 15-17, mired in third place in the American League Central Division.

The bullpen, though, deserves the lion's share of the blame for the Twins' slow start.

Twins' relievers have consistently failed to get the job done in situations when a game has either been tied, or Minnesota has trailed or led a game by one or two runs. They've already amassed four blown saves, tied for second-highest in the American League.

Here's a breakdown of Twins' relievers in these clutch situations.

Jose Mijares (0-1, one blown save): 4 IP, 5 H, 3 R, 2 ER, 2 BB, 3 SO.

Jesse Crain (1-1): 3.1 IP, 5 H, 6 R, 6 ER, 6 BB, 1 SO.

R.A. Dickey: 4 IP, 6 H, 2 R, 2 ER, 2 BB, 1 SO.

Luis Ayala (0-1, two blown saves) :5 IP, 13 H, 6 R, 2 ER, 1 BB, 3 SO.

Craig Breslow (0-1): 3 IP, 2 H, 3 R, 3 ER, 4 BB, 3 SO.

Philip Humber: 1 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 1 BB, 0 SO.

Brian Duensing: 1 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 0 SO.

Matt Guerrier: 8 IP, 2 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 2 BB, 1 SO.

Joe Nathan (1-0, one blown save and four saves): 7 IP, 4 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 3 BB, 5 SO.

Collectively, the Twins bullpen has surrendered 22 runs in 36.1 innings of clutch relief.

If you take Guerrier and Nathan out of the equation, though, the state of the Twins bullpen becomes even more unsightly at 21.1 innings and 20 runs surrendered, or nearly one run per inning.

Ironically, Philip Humber and Brian Duensing, the only other Twins' relievers to show a flair in clutch situations, albeit in a limited role, are both in Triple-A Rochester following early season demotions.

Jose Mijares, who looked unhittable early on, has proved to be painfully mortal in his last two appearances.

Juan Morillo blew up in three relief appearances, all in mop-up roles. He, too, is in Triple-A Rochester.

The Twins continue to show faith in Luis Ayala, whom they signed in the offseason, and Jesse Crain. Both are laudable gestures on the part of the Twins, but woefully misplaced thus far in the season.

Oakland A's General Manager Billy Beane of Oakland Athletics voices a common wisdom among baseball people in the know. He says that it takes at least 50 games for a team to properly assess the talent it has on the field.

The common perception, though, is that the Twins are left with too many weak links in the bullpen to be a playoff contender.

At some point, if the bullpen doesn't shape up soon, Minnesota will be forced to make a move. Either by calling up one of their bright minor league bullpen prospects or making a trade or signing an unrestricted free agent.

After Sunday's loss to the Seattle Mariners, a game in which Mijares and Crain surrendered four earned runs in one-third of an inning after Nick Blackburn hurled seven innings of five-hit, shutout baseball, the Minnesota Twins may be facing the decision sooner rather than later.

College QBs and Future NFL Drafts

Duane Winn — Thu, 07 May 2009 22:08:29 -0400

With the 37th overall pick in the 2013 NFL Draft, the St. Louis Rams select Matt Barkley. Quarterback. University of Southern California.

It sounds like science fiction, doesn't it; that the potential top quarterback in the draft in four years would not be selected until the second round?

Perhaps it is a bit far-fetched.

What happens, though, if all the first-round quarterbacks selected in this year's draft—Matthew Stafford, Mark Sanchez and Josh Freeman—go belly-up in 2009 or the following year or the year after that and prove an unwise investment?

And let's say (just for the sake of argument) that quarterbacks Nate Davis (Ball State) and Curtis Painter (Purdue), drafted this year in the fifth and sixth rounds, respectively, outstrip all expectations and develop into NFL stars for the San Francisco 49ers and the Indianapolis Colts?

Would this set of circumstances compel NFL teams to retool their high-risk, high-reward approach to drafting quarterbacks in the first round.

Probably not.

After all, we're not talking about an ordinary business enterprise. We're talking about the NFL, where cost-benefit analysis is not exactly a thriving practice.

Take the 1999 draft when five quarterbacks were selected in the first 12 picks. Only Daunte Culpepper and Donovan McNabb carved out legitimate careers. The latter is arguably a Hall of Famer and they are still sidestepping blitzes and pitching footballs a decade later.

The other three (Tim Couch, Akili Smith and Cade McNown) are regarded as nothing more than bad punchlines.

All five draftees looked promising. Otherwise, they wouldn't have been drafted in the first round, would they?

Couch, a University of Kentucky alum whom the Cleveland Browns selected first overall, made his first start in the second game of his rookie season. He enjoyed a measure of success during his career, culminating in 2002 when he threw for 2,842 yards and 18 touchdowns and led the Browns to a playoff berth. Injuries, though, curtailed his career.

The Cincinnati Bengals had far less luck with Smith, the third overall pick in the draft. His considerable athleticism was nullified by his inability to grasp the complexities of the Bengals' offense. He started 17 games before he was granted a release.

McNown was selected by the Chicago Bears with the 12th overall pick of the draft. He started 15 games over two seasons, throwing 16 touchdowns and 19 interceptions. McNown's ineffectiveness coupled with his susceptibility to injury, forced the Bears to jettison him in 2002.

Culpepper seized the opportunity to start in his second year compiling 3,937 passing yards with 33 touchdowns and only 16 interceptions. He helped lead the Vikings to an 11-5 record and was named to the Pro Bowl.

Over the course of the next two seasons, Culpepper struggled mightily—as did the Vikings. He threw 32 touchdowns against 36 interceptions in 2001 and 2002, but Minnesota hung tough with their former first-round draft choice.

In 2003 and 2004, Culpepper rewarded the Vikings' patience with Pro Bowl years, amassing 8,196 yards, 64 touchdowns and just 22 interceptions.

McNabb has enjoyed the luxury of plying his wares for a successful franchise. As a result, he's thrown for more than 29,000 yards and 194 touchdowns.

Who's to say that if Couch, Smith or McNown played under similar circumstances, they too wouldn't have evolved into solid quarterbacks?

In addition to Couch, Smith and McNown, you can ask Michael Vick, Rex Grossman, Ryan Leaf, Joey Harrington, Patrick Ramsey, Kyle Boller, Vince Young, Matt Leinart, Carson Palmer, David Carr and Alex Smith about the vagaries of fate that separate stardom and mediocrity.

Drafting a quarterback is a weird science, at best.

A combination of injuries, an inability to read pro coverage schemes, a lack of talent surrounding them, and a host of other unforeseen factors can transform the potential savior of a franchise overnight into damaged goods.

At any rate, it's much riskier than drafting a blue-chip linebacker, or a defensive/offensive lineman.

One anecdote that proves drafting quarterbacks is a crap-shoot comes by way of Bill Walsh, who coached Hall of Fame QBs Joe Montana and Steve Young.

When asked by reporters whether he favored Peyton Manning or Leaf in the 1998 draft, he responded that he would pass on both of them and take a chance on Brian Griese in the second round.

So much for the sophisticated NFL information pipeline.

It makes one suspect that throwing darts or rolling the dice is just as effective in picking NFL-worthy quarterbacks. It doesn't hurt to mutter a silent prayer, either.

Where Will Brett Favre Be Playing In 2010?

Duane Winn — Thu, 07 May 2009 00:12:10 -0400

I'm not going there.

Which is to say, I'm not going to waste my time or yours inquiring into the motives that are apparently compelling Brett Favre to return to the NFL with the Minnesota Vikings for another go-around on the gridiron.

It's already been done, to death.

I googled "Brett Favre" on my laptop early Wednesday evening and up popped 4,341 news entries.

The "Brett Favre Saga" has become a cottage industry almost overnight.

I say that an NFL legend like Favre has earned the right to live his life, or play out his career, as he chooses. If he feels that he has some unfinished business to attend to, so be it.

I'm much more concerned about where Favre intends to play in 2010.

How about the Oakland Raiders?

JaMarcus Russell has yet to establish himself as a bona fide starter and Jeff Garcia is getting older.

The Denver Broncos?

Kyle Orton may or not fill the shoes of the dearly departed Jay Cutler.

The San Francisco 49'ers?

Neither Shaun Hill or Alex Smith seem poised for a breakout year.

The St. Louis Rams?

Marc Bulger or Kyle Boller?

Please.

The Seattle Seahawks?

Matt Hasslebeck is aging fast.

The Washington Redskins?

Jason Campbell will have to post MVP-worthy numbers to remain in D.C. for another year.

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers?

Byron Leftwich, Brian Griese, Luke McCown, and Josh Johnson aren't likely to turn heads.

You see, the field is wide open for Favre in 2010. He won't be picky.

The only proviso is that the team he plays for must have the Green Bay Packers on their schedule for 2010. And, it wouldn't hurt if his prospective employer's brain trust is as clueless as that of the Minnesota Vikings.

There it is, I'm finished.

At this time, I'm retired and have no intention of returning to this subject ever again.

For Sage Rosenfels, It's 4th-and-Long for His Career

Duane Winn — Wed, 06 May 2009 15:24:49 -0400

The 2009 season will be all about redemption for Minnesota Vikings quarterback Sage Rosenfels.

Rosenfels, despite his perennial status as a backup, has experienced his share of highs and lows as a spot starter during an eight-year NFL career.

It took Rosenfels five seasons to collect his first NFL victory as quarterback. It was a doozy and well worth the wait.

Replacing an injured Gus Frerotte in the second half, Rosenfels directed three touchdown drives in the final quarter and threw for the winning score on fourth down with six seconds left to help the Miami Dolphins beat the Buffalo Bills 24-23 on Dec. 4, 2005. The 20-point comeback was the Dolphins' biggest since 1974.

It took Rosenfels far less time to register an equally memorable meltdown.

On Oct. 5, 2008, Rosenfels fumbled twice in the fourth quarter and threw a last-minute interception, helping Indianapolis rally for a 31-27 win over his Houston Texans. The Colts scored 21 points in two minutes and 10 seconds to register the comeback victory.

Rosenfels has amassed enough snaps to even experience triumph and heartache in the same game.

On Oct. 21, 2007, Rosenfels brought Houston from a 32-7 deficit to a 36-35 lead before Rob Bironas kicked an NFL-record eighth field goal for a 38-36 Tennessee victory. Rosenfel's 249 passing yards in that period were the second most ever in the fourth quarter.

The Minnesota Vikings are wagering a $9-million, two-year contract extension and a 2009 fourth-round draft choice that Rosenfels, 31, whom they acquired in February from the Houston Texans, will transform himself from an ugly duckling into a beautiful swan.

The Vikings hope Rosenfels will help them achieve another NFC North crown, a deep run into the playoffs and ultimately, a berth in the Super Bowl.

And why can't Rosenfels join the ranks of late-blooming quarterbacks like Jeff Garcia, Rich Gannon, and Matt Hasselbeck who didn't become upper-echelon starters until after they reached the age of 30?

During his senior at Iowa State University, Rosenfels spearheaded a Cyclone offense that featured an equal mix of throw and run. Despite throwing for just 208.5 yards per game, Rosenfels was rated the second-best senior quarterback prospect by one scouting organization.

The Washington Redskins selected Rosenfels in the fourth round of the 2001 draft. He didn't play a down during his rookie season, but Steve Spurrier, who had taken over as coach of the Redskins at the end of the 2001 NFL season, announced in April 2002 that Rosenfels would be in the hunt for the starting nod at quarterback.

The promise never materialized as Spurrier turned to former Heisman Trophy winner Danny Wuerffel, journeyman Shane Matthews, and ultimately, 2002 first-round draft pick Patrick Ramsey.

Wuerffel and Matthews combined to lead six of Spurrier's seven Southeastern Conference title teams at Florida. Their ease with the "Fun-N-Gun" offense Spurrier favored gave them the inside track over Rosenfels, although neither had established themselves as NFL-caliber quarterbacks.

Ramsey embroiled the Redskins in a contract stalemate that kept him out of camp until August, but he was later inked to a long-term contract that stamped him as Washington's long-term fix at quarterback.

Rosenfels excelled in three preseason contests for the Redskins in 2002, completing 32 of 54 pass attempts (59.3 percent) for 476 yards with five touchdowns and two interceptions, for a passer rating of 103.6.

One could argue it was tangible evidence that Rosenfels had mastered Spurrier's complex system and offered a compelling case that Rosenfels had earned a slot on the depth chart.

Instead, Rosenfels was the odd-man out, and the Redskins traded him to the Miami Dolphins for a 2003 seventh-round draft choice on Aug. 22, 2002.

The Dolphins' Senior Vice President-Football Operations/Player Personnel at the time was none other than Rick Spielman, currently Vice President of Player Personnel for the Minnesota Vikings. He stated that Rosenfels would compete for the team's third quarterback position, according to the team's Web site.

Rosenfels ultimately exceeded the Dolphins' modest expectations.

Over the course of four years, Rosenfels completed 54-of-109 pass attempts for 776 yards, with six touchdowns and six interceptions for a solid 81.2 passer rating. He started two of the 13 games in which he appeared.

His performance, though, wasn't enough to convince the Dolphins that he was starter material, and Rosenfels signed with the Houston Texans as an unrestricted free agent on March 13, 2006.

In 19 games for the Texans, including 10 starts over a three-year span, Rosenfels completed 297-of-453 attempts, with 24 touchdowns and 23 interceptions. He compiled 3,380 yards for an 84.3 passer rating, statistics roughly equivalent to San Diego Chargers quarterback Philip Rivers' stat line in 2007.

The Vikings obtained Rosenfels in the expectation that he would challenge Tarvaris Jackson for the starter's role, Spielman said.

This was the plan before the Vikings began to court Brett Favre, which is a clear sign that the Vikings don't have confidence in either Rosenfels or Jackson.

No matter how the scenario unfolds, Rosenfels is facing fourth down and 30 yards to go, in terms of his career prospects ... before he's even taken a snap as a Viking.

If Favre signs with the Vikings, Rosenfels will be holding a clipboard on the sidelines for another year at least.

If Favre doesn't sign and Rosenfels supplants Jackson as the starter at some point in the season, he will have to pull a Kurt Warner to overcome the cynicism of Vikings fans who regard neither he nor Jackson as possessing the requisite panache to enable the Vikings to fulfill their destiny.

Sage, welcome to the land of Purple and Gold, where fans share an aesthetic that views life as beautiful but cruel.

Minnesota Twins' Storyline This Season Is a Familiar One

Duane Winn — Mon, 04 May 2009 10:29:22 -0400

The Minnesota Twins are still very much of an enigma at this stage of the season.

But then again, this isn't an unusual state of affairs in Twinkie Town.

Since Ron Gardenhire took over as manager, the Twins are only two games above .500 at the 25-game mark in each of the past seven-plus seasons. Yet, Minnesota's overall record during this time frame is 635-525, including this year's 12-13 slate.

The Twins' success under Gardenhire, which features four American League Central Division titles, suggests that they are very good at staving off the butterflies and boo-birds that accompany the first month of the season and making the necessary adjustments that ensure success down the road.

This edition of the Twins, though, may require an unusual amount of patience.

Thus far, the 2009 season has been marred by a rash of disappointing performances and unfulfilled promise, only occasionally leavened by a pleasant surprise or two.

Sunday's encounter with the Kansas City Royals was a particularly illustrative example.

Scott Baker, with the Twins leading 4-0, took a no-hitter into the seventh inning. At one point, he had retired 15 consecutive Royals. Suddenly, following consecutive singles to Willie Bloomquist and Mark Teahen, Baker self-destructed by surrendering a three-run homer to Jose Guillen which ignited a 7-5 comeback victory for the Royals.

It was Baker's fourth consecutive setback, but the first to bear huge promise. He's sporting a 9.15 ERA and he hasn't registered more than six innings yet in any of his starts, a far cry from his breakout year in 2008 (11-4, 3.45) which rightfully earned him the title of staff ace.

Francisco Liriano, considered the other pillar of the starting rotation, has fared much better, but his 6.04 ERA over five starts still won't help the Twins reach the promise0 land.

Liriano, like Baker on Sunday afternoon, has stumbled in the middle innings after promising starts. When he's stood on the precipice of hurling a gem, Liriano has, more often than not, succumbed to an avalanche of hits, walks and runs.

Liriano authored a sharp start on Apr. 28 in which he limited the Rays to seven hits over 6.2 innings. It was his second quality start in his past three outings, although he's still winless at 0-4. Yet, it bore renewed hope that Liriano may right himself and recapture some semblance of his rookie form.

Glen Perkins (1-2, 3.34 ERA), the least heralded member of the starting rotation, has been the most impressive. He was unhittable in his first three starts, allowing just four earned runs in 24 innings. In his past two starts, Perkins has been all-too mortal, surrendering nine earned runs in 11 innings.

Nick Blackburn (2-1, 4.02 ERA) and Kevin Slowey (4-0, 5.17) have been, well, sturdy. They have combined for five quality starts between them. Slowey leads the staff with 23 strikeouts.

The bullpen has been as maddeningly consistent as a leaky faucet.

Juan Morillo (22.50 ERA) and Philip Humber (12.46) were jettisoned to Triple-A Rochester following short but ineffective stints. They, like Craig Breslow (8.10), R.A. Dickey (5.93) and Jesse Crain (7.50) have let the Twins down often in crucial situations, but the honor for the most unreliable arm in the bullpen must go to Luis Ayala (5.84 ERA), who already has blown three saves.

Of course, stellar closer Joe Nathan, who blew a save Apr. 28 only to recoup the victory when the Twins scored in their half of the ninth, has been a clutch presence, as has Jose Mijares, who didn't make the Twins' opening day roster. Upon his recall, Mijares has been brilliant. He hasn't allowed a run in 4.2 innings, striking out eight and walking only one batter.

The Twins' offense has been a conundrum as well.

The only blue-chippers for the Twins have been Denard Span, Justin Morneau, and Jason Kubel.

Span, a former Twins' first-round selection in the amateur draft, has been overshadowed by his mates in the outfield, Delmon Young and Carlos Gomez, both obtained in high-powered offseason trades. Span, however, fashioned a breakout season in 2008 (.294), while Young and Gomez fell short of their promise.

Span has been a model of consistency in 2009, hitting around .300 with a cluster of clutch hits. While Young is slowly rebounding from an early-season slump and Gomez still hasn't shown much at the plate.

Meanwhile, Morneau and Kubel, hitting .327 and .294, respectively, have accounted for 10 homers and 37 RBI between them.

Third baseman Joe Crede, acquired as a free agent, has proved to be a major disappointment (.225, 3 HR, 6 RBI). The Twins also expected more from Michael Cuddyer (.253, 2 HR, 10 RBI) and second baseman Alexi Casilla (.160, 0 HR, 2 RBI), who batted .281 in 2008 with seven homers and 50 RBI.

The Twins received a much-needed offensive spark from an unlikely source in Jose Morales who, with Mike Redmond, assumed the full-time coaching chores in the wake of Joe Mauer's injury. Morales hit .340 before being sent down to Triple-A following Sunday's game to make room for Crain, who was activated from the disabled list.

Another surprise has been the play of Brendan Harris who was acquired with Delmon Young in a trade with Tampa Bay in October 2007. Harris is hitting 327 in 49 at-bats, giving Twins' fans reason to believe that the deal which sent pitcher Matt Garza and shortstop Jason Bartlett to the Twins wasn't so one-sided after all.

Mauer's return to the Twins' lineup Friday evening added even more spice to the Twins' storyline this season.

All the two-time American League did was add to his considerable myth Friday evening against the Royals, crashing a home run in his first plate appearance of the season. He added a double and scored three times in the Twins' 7-5 victory.

On Saturday, a 10-7 Twins loss, Mauer collected four hits with an RBI in six at-bats. On Sunday, Mauer contributed a pinch-hit single that delivered a run as the Twins fell once again, 7-5.

Yet, Mauer's reappearance, after all, didn't restore instant credibility for the Twins who dropped two of three against Kansas City. That's not the way fairy tales are supposed to go, is it?

And so the story of the Twins unfolds once again.

Are they sleeping giants?

Or, will the Twins continue to rub the nerves raw of the faithful with their maddening inconsistency?

It seems that the Twins still aren't prepared to lift the veil for the season.

That would be out of character.

Jose Morales Earned the Right to Stick with Twins

Duane Winn — Tue, 28 Apr 2009 18:11:20 -0400

Jose Morales was the early favorite to draw the short straw after Joe Mauer is activated from the 15-day disabled list.

But that was then and this is now.

In the Twins' past five games, Morales has garnered nine hits in 18 at-bats. He is hitting .361 for the season.

Morales, who was selected by the Twins in the third round of 2001 amateur draft, has accomplished what other more noteworthy Twins, such as Carlos Gomez, Joe Crede, Michael Cuddyer, Delmon Young, Scott Baker, and Francisco Liriano, have failed to do thus far this season. He has not only met expectations, he's exceeded them.

This shouldn't come as a shock to anyone who has followed Morales career.

Morales, in parts of eight minor league seasons, sports a .283 batting average. For Triple A-Rochester in 2007 and 2008, Morales batted .312 in 162 games.

The question about Morales has always centered on his defense. He was used at second base, shortstop, and third base in the minor leagues until the Twins decided to groom him as a catcher.

The move has yielded beneficial results, but not enough to dismiss the the reality that Morales is a defensive liability no matter which position he mans.

As a minor league infielder, Morales committed 23 errors in 98 games. As a catcher, Morales committed 41 errors in 334 minor league games. (By comparison, Mauer has only committed 14 errors in 498 Major League games behind the plate).

In 2009, both Redmond and Morales have struggled to keep opposing players from running wild on the base paths. Morales snapped the duo's unenviable streak of allowing 19 consecutive runners to steal a base by throwing out Mark DeRosa Sunday, according to the Associated Press.

Can the Twins really afford to lose his bat from a lineup which has struggled mightily to score runs?

Manager Ron Gardenhire is entertaining the risky proposition of keeping three catchers in the lineup. However, the Twins may not have to go this route if they jettison Redmond, who will turn 38 on May 5, to make room for Mauer.

When Morales isn't spelling Mauer behind the plate, he could be used as a designated hitter or as a part-time infielder. The latter isn't an ideal solution, but it would keep his bat in the lineup, something the Twins desperately need at this point of the season.

Minnesota Twins Need a QB, Too

Duane Winn — Mon, 27 Apr 2009 23:47:18 -0400

The Minnesota Vikings are commonly regarded as being a quarterback away from a berth in the Super Bowl.

The same argument could be said for the Minnesota Twins and a possible slot in the World Series.

All-Star catcher Joe Mauer has missed the Twins' first 20 games due to a sore lower back. He's scheduled to rejoin the Twins on Friday.

It can't be too soon for the Twins, who dropped a 7-1 decision Monday night to Tampa Bay in the Metrodome. The loss put the Twins at 9-11.

The Twins continued to struggle in a situation in which Mauer excels: providing a timely hit with a runner in scoring position (Mauer hit a lusty .361 last season with runners in scoring position with two outs). The Twins went 0-for-9 with runners in scoring position Monday night.

Even the Twins' leading hitters and run producers struggled in the clutch. Both Justin Morneau and Jason Kubel each failed twice with runners in scoring position.

Joe Crede provided the Twins' only run with a solo blast in the sixth inning.

Former Minnesota Twin Jason Bartlett, acquired by Tampa Bay, along with Matt Garza and Eduardo Morlan in a trade for Delmon Young, Brendan Harris, and Jason Pridie, stung the Twins for a run-scoring single in the fifth and added a solo homer in the ninth.

Scott Baker, in a losing performance, offered the Twins some measure of consolation with his best performance thus far this season. He surrendered six hits, four earned runs, and one walk in six innings of work.

However, the Twins' relief corps suffered yet another breakdown.

R.A. Dickey surrendered a two-run homer to Carlos Pena in the eighth inning and Bartlett greeted Juan Morillo with a solo blast in the ninth.

A Modest Proposal or Two for MLB Teams to Consider

Duane Winn — Mon, 27 Apr 2009 21:49:58 -0400

Late April on the Major League Baseball front is the time when teams, successful or not, begin to fine-tune their lineups.

So, here's a few modest proposals for Major League teams to consider.

Cincinnati Reds

Take Micah Owings off the mound and install him as an everyday player.

Holy Babe Ruth, the kid can crush the ball.

In 126 Major League at-bats, Owings is hitting .325 with 19 extra-base hits and 23 RBI.

One problem is that the only place that the Reds could stash Owings, all six-foot-five and 225 pounds of him, is at first base. However, Joey Votto occupies that position and he'll likely be there for the next 10 years or so.

Another drawback to this proposal is that Owings still has plenty of upside as a starting pitcher.

Minnesota Twins

Pull the plug on the five-outfielder platoon experiment.

The strategy isn't doing Carlos Gomez, Michael Cuddyer or Delmon Young any good. They're all struggling at the plate, although Young is beginning to show signs of breaking out of his early-season slump with a five-for-14 streak in his past four games.

The point here is that in moving the members of the above-mentioned trio in and out of the lineup in the attempt to ensure that each of them gets adequate playing time, Twins' manager Ron Gardenhire is preventing them all from achieving any semblance of offensive rhythm.

The Twins' outfield picture could get even more muddled when Joe Mauer returns to the lineup. If the All-Star catcher can't squat behind the plate as often as before, he'll be forced to move to the designated hitter role, displacing the torrid-hitting Jason Kubel, and what then?

Texas Rangers

Drop Ian Kinsler to either the three- or four-hole in the batting order.

Kinsler is an offensive whirlwind who hits for average and power. He is a run-producing machine, and he can be of even more use to the Rangers hitting in one of these two berths where RBI opportunities are more plentiful. His presence at No. 3 or No.4 would also offer protection to other hitters in the Texas lineup.

Not that the Rangers need any help in scoring. In 18 games they're averaging a shade over six runs. But it makes just as much sense as having Michael Young in the three-hole and Andrew Jones batting clean-up.

Houston Astros

Hold a fire sale and get younger.

The Astros field the oldest lineup in the majors. Which wouldn't be so bad if their minor league pipeline hadn't been dismantled by a rash of ill-advised signings of free agents in their 30s.

The Astros are off to their worst season start in more than two decades. It makes sense to sell off some aging veterans to pennant contenders in exchange for some prospects.

Milwaukee Brewers

Don't expect Trevor Hoffman to be your bullpen savior when he comes off the disabled list. Be ready to execute Plan B immediately.

The Major League's all-time saves leader is a class act, but at age 41, is it reasonable to expect that Hoffman has still retained most of his magic?

His ERA jumped from 2.98 in 2007 to 3.77 in 2008, the second-highest mark of his career. It may be an aberration or a sign that Father Time is finally catching up to the future Hall of Famer.

Hoffman may still thrive if the Brewers employ a bullpen by commitee, instead of relying on him as the primary closer.

Chicago White Sox

Consider moving Clayton Richard back into the starting rotation in place of Jose Contreras.

The 25-year-old lefty, who has amassed an ERA of 4.76 ERA in eight games this season as a member of the bullpen, enjoyed the spotlight as a starter once or twice in 2008. He surely offers more upside currently than 37-year-old Jose Contreras (0-3, 6.75 ERA), whose fractured psyche is in need of repair as much as his pitching mechanics.

Los Angeles Angels or any other team desperately in need of starting pitching.

Jose Lima, Hideki Irabu, Pedro Martinez, Mark Mulder, Paul Byrd and Ryan Drese are among the ranks of starters looking for a spot on a Major League club.

Just say no.

Delmon Young May Be Done Slumping If...

Duane Winn — Mon, 27 Apr 2009 16:13:47 -0400

Those comparisons to great hitters of recent yore have long since died down. Suddenly, Delmon Young was just another talented, but struggling outfielder who had his current employers wondering if he would ever develop into something special.

It's still much too early to ascertain whether Young, the first pick in the 2003 amateur draft, will turn into an offensive presence like Albert Belle, a hitter to whom he's most often compared. But Young, after a slow start in 2009, is definitely showing signs of life.

In his past four games, Young is five-for-14, lifting his season average to .255 in 47 at-bats. He's amassed eight RBI in 13 games overall, which is a remarkable statistic considering the fact that he's batted in either the six- or seven-hole for most of the season.

And here's anothing thing: Young hasn't profited from the five-outfielder platoon system that manager Ron Gardenhire has employed in an attempt to maximize the Twins' offensive production. The system may benefit an aging veteran, but it does no favors to a 23-year-old who is attempting to establish his credentials as a major leaguer. A misstep in the field or a failure to produce a run only will only have him looking over his shoulder at the dugout, wondering what his manager's next step may be.

Young hasn't been the only Twins' outfielder to suffer.

The batting averages of Michael Cuddyer and Carlos Gomez have plummeted with each passing game. Jason Kubel is thriving only because he's been able to hone his stroke as the team's regular designated hitter. Similarly, Denard Span is flourishing because he started out white-hot at the plate, earning him regular playing time, and he's been able to maintain his offensive consistency throughout the young season.

It seems clear that Young is making a compelling case for a starting role.

The fact that Young has managed to be a consistent producer, despite his limited role, is clear evidence that he has conquered questions about his attitude and immaturity that have dogged him during the past two seasons.

Young also offers a higher payoff than either Gomez or Cuddyer at this stage of the proceedings.

Gomez, following a solid-enough offensive campaign n 2008, is batting under .200 in 2009. He has been unable to pare down his strikeouts and increase his number of walks, possible signs that he's overmatched by major league pitching.

Cuddyer, 30, is hitting .214 with a single homer and six RBI in 18 games. He's struck out 15 times in 70 at-bats and his on-base percentage is a woeful .263. It's no wonder that there are whispers that his .284 BA, 24 HR, 109 RBI batting profile in 2006 was an aberration.

It's time that the Twins abandon their platoon experiment and install Young into the regular lineup to see if he can fulfill his considerable promise. After all, he's already a .291 career hitter and he may only get better with increased playing time.

Isn't that why they traded one of their top pitching prospects (Matt Garza) and their starting shortstop (Jason Bartlett) for Young in the first place?