Bleacher Report - Articles by Paul Kotch

2009 NFL Draft: The Weapons

Paul Kotch — Sat, 27 Dec 2008 13:08:16 -0500

In late December, while the NFL’s elite are gearing up for the post-season, the also-rans are already assessing their needs as they look towards the 2009 campaign.

In the 21st century NFL, the Atlanta Falcons and Miami Dolphins are two prime examples of how a team can go from doormat to contender with the help of an instant impact player from the draft.

After the dust settled from the storm that was Michael Vick, Matt Ryan brought stability to the quarterback position for the Falcons, and has them in the playoff hunt with a veteran-like presence that defies his rookie status.

In Miami, Jake Long has been a key cog in the Dolphins’ offensive line, giving free agent acquisition Chad Pennington time to find his receivers.

Aside from showcasing his elite athletic skill, Long has also assumed a leadership role as a result of injuries suffered along the Dolphins' trenches. As a result, the Dolphins are in the thick of the AFC post-season race after posting a forgettable 1-15 record in 2007.

As the scouting departments of the 2008 disappointments look to reload, let’s take a look at the strengths, and the potential weaknesses of some of the weapons available.

Matthew Stafford, Quarterback, Georgia, Jr.
6'3", 228 lbs.

Strengths
Stafford has elite arm strength, capable of making all of the throws necessary in the NFL. While he’s not a threat to run with the football, he is nimble enough to buy time with his feet.

He has experience in a pro-style offense which should help with his adjustment to the NFL. He is the complete package with the intangibles and leadership skills necessary for a franchise quarterback.

He has shown pocket presence that defies his young age. When considering the bottom line in the NFL, winning, Stafford’s record speaks for itself.

Weaknesses
Some have questioned Stafford’s decision-making skills, and while his won-loss record is impressive, he has failed to post truly eye-popping statistics. He will eventually morph into a very successful NFL signal-caller, but there will be an adjustment period.

Michael Crabtree, Wide Receiver, Texas Tech, Sophomore
6ft. 4", 214 lbs.

Strengths
Crabtree shows the body control and size of the 21st-century NFL receiver. A two-time Biletnikoff Award winner who possesses soft hands and the ability to make plays in place, Crabtree will be an instant upgrade to any team’s passing attack.

He can make the tough catches in traffic, and take hits over the middle of the field. Crabtree will have an immediate impact in the NFL, bringing precise route running and all-around play-making ability.

Weaknesses
A well-rounded player, it’s difficult to find kinks in Crabtree’s armor. Some say that his lack of blazing speed will make it more difficult for him to get separation against upper-echelon corners, and that his numbers are inflated as a result of Texas Tech’s offensive style.

Michael Oher, Offensive Tackle, Mississippi
6'6", 322 lbs.

Strengths
Oher had an immediate impact for the Rebels in his freshman year as a guard, and his successful switch to the tackle position shows his versatility, a valuable commodity for a lineman in today’s NFL.

He is a gifted athlete, and possesses the ideal frame for the tackle position, using his long arms to hold opposing defensive linemen at bay in pass blocking.

Oher is rated as one of the top linemen in the country, and will likely go high in the first round. He has the potential to serve as a cornerstone for his new team, manning one of the most important and overlooked positions in football.

Weaknesses
There are concerns regarding Oher’s ability to adapt to the responsibilities of an NFL player as a result of a turbulent upbringing. Struggles with his grades have some questioning his ability to absorb an NFL playbook.

As long as he keeps his nose clean and maintains the necessary work ethic, Oher can’t miss.

Chris Wells, Running Back, Ohio State, Junior
6'1", 235 lbs.

Strengths
Wells has the strength to run over opposing defenders, and wear down Opposing defenses as the game progresses. He hits the hole with aggression, and always falls forward as he keeps his legs pumping.

He shows good cut-back ability for a back of his size. Wells’ presence can open up the passing game in the fourth quarter, as defenses stack the box in order to contend with his punishing style.

Weaknesses
Wells’ receiving skills have come into question, and there are concerns regarding his future durability as a result of a nagging ankle injury. Wells is more of a three-yards-and-a-cloud-of-dust style runner as opposed to a home run hitter.

Taylor Mays, Safety, USC, Junior
6'4", 230 lbs.

Strengths
Mays is a true specimen at the safety position, and brings the aggression to deliver hits reminiscent of Ronnie Lott. A great combination of size and speed, Mays hits like a linebacker while possessing the coverage skills of a cornerback.

His passion is contagious, and his bone-crushing tackles can destroy a receivers’ will. He shows relentless pursuit, running down ball carriers from all areas of the field.

Weaknesses

Mays’ aggressiveness can serve as a liability, making his susceptible to play-action. His desire to deliver the knockout blow can backfire, as he fails to wrap up his man. Some say that he would have more interceptions under his belt if he had better hands.

Rey Maualuga, linebacker, USC
6 ft. 2", 260 lbs.

Strengths
Maualuga reminds many of his namesake in Baltimore with his nastiness and physical style of play. He plays with a mean streak and is an absolute force in the trenches. He plays 110 percent from snap to whistle, and boasts elite lateral speed.

His intensity level is contagious, and he is an absolute force at the point of attack with his size and strength. Maualuga is the type of player that will run down ball carriers that are far beyond the line of scrimmage.

Weaknesses

Like Mays, Maualuga’s blind aggression can cost him, as he can overrun plays and get caught out of position. He needs to learn how to play more disciplined football without sacrificing his intensity.

Malcolm Jenkins, Cornerback, Ohio State
6'1", 201 lbs.

Strengths
Jenkins has all of the necessary traits to become the prototypical "shutdown corner". He is a strong tackler, and will be an asset against the run for any team that selects him. He’s consistent, has ideal size, and has the experience to step into a starting role immediately.

He has a good nose for the football; he always seems to be in the thick of the play. He could easily project as a safety with added size.

Weaknesses
Jenkins is an extremely well-rounded player. His confidence level may give him a false sense of security, and while he’s fast, he does not possess the blinding speed that some NFL receivers have, and may be vulnerable deep as a result.

Contact Paul Kotch At PowerAndGlory@Comcast.Net

Raiders/Bills - The Good, The Bad, And The Ugly

Paul Kotch — Sun, 21 Sep 2008 18:10:01 -0400

The Raiders’ defense that harassed Trent Edwards for three and a half quarters of play was already in the locker room celebrating a hard-fought and well-deserved road win when they were needed most.

With a nine point lead and over six minutes left in the game, one would have thought that the Raiders were up by four touchdowns. Suddenly Rob Ryan’s defensive backs were giving up the underneath, allowing Edwards to get the ball to his receivers in space. The Bills’ offense was suddenly turning 5-yard slants and hitches into big gains.

As unpopular as it may be with the fans, there is a time and place for the Prevent defense - when your up by four touchdowns and there is less than five minutes to go in the game - not when your up by nine points with six minutes of football left to play. While they weren’t in a traditional "Prevent", you’d have thought that the Raiders were up by 28 with the way that their defense went from rabid...to submissive.

The pass rush was suddenly non-existent, and with all day to throw, talented quarterback Trent Edwards patiently took what Rob Ryan’s defense gave him - which was more than enough for the Bills to score 10 points in just over four and a half minutes to win the game.

With Dick Jauron’s troops keeping Oakland’s running attack in check, it was the Raiders’ defense that carried them to a 23-14 lead into the fourth quarter, and ultimately - it was that same defense that deviated from a successful game plan and cost the Silver and Black what would have been a huge win on the road against a good football team.

The Good

The Raiders’ intensity level and pursuit on defense was as good as I’ve seen in a long time. Often there were three and four defenders around the ball carrier.

Four three-and-a-half quarters, the Raiders’ defense harassed Trent Edwards, never allowing him to get comfortable in the pocket and set his feet. Diverse blitz packages brought heat from the outside, and Marshawn Lynch was held to a 3.6 yard-per-carry average on the ground.

JaMarcus Russell’s 84-yard strike to Johnnie Lee Higgins was a thing of beauty. Russell stood tall in the pocket and delivered a perfectly timed strike to a well-covered Higgins, who turned on the speed and won the foot race to the end zone.

The Bad

Oakland’s offense moved the ball consistently only to settle for field goals as opposed to touchdowns. Field goals alone do not win games against good football teams on the road.

JaMarcus Russell was often faced with third-and-long, not a good situation for any quarterback, let alone an inexperienced signal caller like Russell. The result - the Raiders converted two of 12 third downs for a 17% efficiency rating.

The Ugly

Two catches for 18 yards hardly justifies the over-inflated contract that was supposed to motivate Javon Walker to become the deep threat to help the Raiders stretch the field. With a suddenly sterile receiving corps, opposing defenses key on Zach Miller, and the back seven have successfully shut down the Oakland passing game.

I’ve been a staunch supporter of both Lane Kiffin and Rob Ryan, but once Marshawn Lynch picked up seven yards to the Oakland 32-yard line with just under two minutes left to play, as the head coach you have to realize that the opposing team is in field goal range and the clock has become YOUR enemy. Of course you have faith in your defense, but you have to prepare for your offense having to take the field needing a field goal to win.

Had Kiffin used the two time outs that he had remaining, he could have...

1.Given his defense much needed rest and time to regroup, and possibly disrupted the newfound rhythm of the Bills’ offense.

2. Most Importantly - Had another shot at his offense taking the field. With Russell’s arm strength, and Janikowski’s leg strength, the Raiders may well have set themselves up for a possible game-winning field goal if they had 30 seconds on the game clock. Thirty seconds that Kiffin allowed to go up in smoke with Buffalos’ final drive.

We’ll never know.

Defense?

Why did Rob Ryan’s defense back off after playing their best football in well over a year? There is an old saying - "If it ain’t broke - don’t fix it". Suddenly the corners were backing off and allowing Bills’ receivers to make plays in space, and the aggressive, pin-your-ears-back and rush the quarterback-philosophy that allowed Oakland to dominate for most of the game mysteriously disappeared and allowed the Bills to march down the field.

Overview

If not for all of the in-house finger pointing between Kiffin, Ryan and Davis that has become par for the course in Oakland, there would be a lot for the Raiders to feel positive about heading into next Sunday’s game against the Chargers.

Last year’s 4-12 Raiders went on the road against a physical, smash-mouth Bills’ team, stood toe-to-toe with them, and damn near came out with a win. With the Chiefs’ coming apart at the seams, and a suddenly vulnerable Chargers’ team still looking for their first win, Oakland could achieve 8-8 if Russell could continue to show improvement and the defense could consistently match the level of intensity that they showed against the Bills.

But with all of the off-the-field issues that haunt them, the fragile house that is the Raiders is in jeopardy of falling as a result of their shaky foundation.

and the Kiffin watch begins again.....

God Bless America and our brave men and women fighting for freedom around the world!

Brett Favre's Impact on the New York Jets' Ground Game

Paul Kotch — Fri, 08 Aug 2008 04:36:13 -0400

We’re all familiar with No. 4's rifle arm, but it’s his impact on the Jets’ ground game that will translate into more wins for Gang Green in 2008.

Chad Pennington is the consummate pro. He is as cerebral a quarterback as there is in the league. He excels in his ability to read coverages and recognize blitz packages. He has been a great leader for the Jets over the course of his career, and, for the most part, has handled the New York media with dignity.

He will be an asset to his new team, whether he finds himself under center for Week One or on the sideline adding depth to a roster.

He will make a fine quarterback coach when his playing career is over.

But the deep ball was never Pennington's strong suit, and his surgically repaired shoulder could no longer challenge opposing safeties deep, which severely handcuffed the Jets’ running attack as a result.

Offensive linemen had to constantly account for safeties at the point of attack. Yards-after-catch were often difficult to come by for the Jets’ receivers, as they faced cornerbacks that allowed them no cushion underneath, as they had no respect for the deep ball.

Kellen Clemens possesses a stronger arm than Pennington, but his inability to recognize coverage schemes and blitz packages often put the Jets in unfavorable down-and-distance situations, and the running game suffered.

Nothing stuffs the running game like a 3rd-and-8.

Suddenly, offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer’s offense has more options. The 15-yard out, the slant-and-go, and the post will force opposing cornerbacks to give the Jets’ receivers space, opening up the underneath as a result. But more importantly, it demands the attention of opposing safeties, who are forced to think twice before crowding the box.

Look for more shotgun and multiple receiver sets, as well as the no-huddle, motion, and shifts to create mismatches.

Don’t expect Favre to star in any pantyhose commercials, wear a fur coat on the sideline, or even take the Jets to the Super Bowl, but expect his presence under center to translate into more wins for Gang Green. And while Jets’ fans envision the new concept of their quarterback going over the top for a 42-yard touchdown strike to Laveranues Coles, it is the domino effect that Favre will have on the Jets that turns them into instant contenders in the AFC East.

Receivers will get increasing yards-after-catch as cornerbacks give them cushion because of their newfound respect for the deep ball, and the impact that he will have on the running attack as safeties are forced to protect the deep middle of the field.

Brett, from one country boy to another, if you need a place to hunt in the tri-state area, I have a cabin in the six-million acre Adirondack Wilderness—strong populations of deer, moose, and bear. Drop me an email below.

God Bless America and our brave men and women fighting for freedom around the world!

Please send questions/comments to PowerAndGlory@Comcast.Net

A Giant Blue Print For Superbowl XLIII: The Defensive Lineman!

Paul Kotch — Tue, 22 Apr 2008 06:41:19 -0400

The NFL is a copycat league. The West-Coast offense, the cover-two, and the zone-blocking scheme are all examples of trends that became commonplace as a result of their effectiveness and their contribution to teams that win.

The Giants dethroned what many believed to be the first dynasty of the 21^st century by first and foremost neutralizing Tom Brady and the Patriots’ offensive machine. The running game was rendered sterile at the point of attack, and Brady’s ability to check down to his second, third, and fourth receiving option was obliterated by the onslaught of the Giants’ relentless pass rush.

Rest assured that many general managers and player personnel were taking notes, and expect teams throughout the league to invest heavily in both top-tier defensive linemen with big-play capability as well as journeymen to add depth and keep defensive line rotations fresh.

Many teams use the currently crowned champion to mold their rosters. Take the current Superbowl champion, mimic their strengths on both sides of the ball, and mold your defense around the strategy that best neutralizes the champions’ offense. In the case of the Giants’ victory over the Patriots, the defensive line held the key.

As a result, look for defensive linemen to be a constant theme in the 2008 draft. Not only will the top-tier players like Chris Long and Vernon Gholston be commanding attention, but well into the middle and later rounds with players like Marcus Harrison and Jeremy Geathers, the defensive lineman will be viewed as the new skill position player.

Already, top-tier defensive linemen have commanded top dollar in the open market. And the trend will continue as castoff defensive linemen are available after June 1^st cuts, as teams will look to add linemen for depth as well as to factor into their defensive line rotations.

At press-time, the Chiefs’ are shopping Jared Allen in the hopes of receiving multiple picks in the 2008 draft. The potential to receive multiple draft picks in exchange for a pass-rushing stud like Allen confirms the worth of a player with his ability to rush the passer. The Bills parted with more than one undisclosed draft pick for the services of the Jaguars’ Marcus Stroud. They value Stroud’s services so much that they view him as worthy of several players in the open market.

The 49ers inked former Bengals’ defensive end Justin Smith to a six-year, $45 million contract including $20 million guaranteed, despite many feeling that they should be focusing on investing in their offense.

Obviously the 49ers’ brass considered Smith’s pass-rushing skills and sure-tackling ability to be a sound investment - again, these are no longer big, fat guys that you shove up front to clear lanes for linebackers, they are premier athletes that are commanding top dollar in the open market because of their ability to help win championships.

Look for more personnel shifts along the defensive line, stunting, player rotation, and a high emphasis on players that can line up at defensive tackle and defensive end as coordinators look to exploit mismatches along the offensive line.

For example, the 49ers will line up Isaac Sopoaga at both tackle and end to better utilize his ability to penetrate opposing offensive lines in the hopes that it will translate into more tackles for losses behind the line of scrimmage.

Putting an emphasis on the defensive line and pass rushing ability is nothing new, but the difference will be that teams will be willing to invest more money into unproven prospects like the Raiders’ Tommy Kelly in the hopes of finding that next blue chip player.They will pursue castoffs that are past their primes more aggressively to add depth and bolster their rotations, and they will stockpile mid and late round picks in the draft in the hopes of finding that defensive end/outside linebacker "tweener" with pass rushing ability.

With their victory over the "unbeatable" Patriots in Superbowl XLII, the Giants have laid out the Blue-Print for success in 2008. Move over wide receivers, quarterbacks, and running backs, and bow down to the elite defensive lineman - your new skill position player.

Bill Parcells vs. Bill Belichick: An Unfair Comparison

Paul Kotch — Fri, 11 Apr 2008 16:04:30 -0400

In recent years, I’ve heard fans and analysts alike debate over who is the better coach—Bill Parcells or Bill Belichick? A fair question and a great topic of discussion.

The general consensus seems to be that Belichick has surpassed his mentor with three Super Bowl titles compared to Parcells’ two. Lombardi Trophies are the measuring stick, they say—case closed.

So Belichick is obviously the better coach, right?

Wrong.

Bill Parcells

Parcells took over a struggling Giants’ team in 1983, replacing Ray Perkins who had left to coach at his Alma-Mater in Alabama. Within four years Parcells delivered New Yorks’ first Lombardi Trophy in 1986, and added another in 1990. Quite an accomplishment for a coach that had to contend with the likes of Mike Ditka, Joe Gibbs, and Bill Walsh every year to reach the top of the NFC mountain.

By the time Parcells left New York after the conclusion of the 1991 season, he had delivered two Super Bowl titles and three division championships.

After a two-year hiatus, Parcells took over the Patriots in 1993, replacing Dick MacPherson and picking New England up off of the NFL scrap heap. Parcells turned them into a Super Bowl contender within four years after the Patriots went 6-10 and then 2-14 respectively the previous two seasons before his arrival.

When Belichick took over in 2000, 15 players from the Parcells regime remained on the roster, including veterans Drew Bledsoe, Troy Brown, Tedy Bruschi, Ty Law, Willie McGinest, and Adam Vinatieri.

After disagreements with Robert Kraft regarding personnel decisions, Parcells came back to New York to right the Jets’ ship after Rich Kotite posted a 4-28 record.

Once again Parcells took a laughing stock of a football franchise and brought them back to respectability, taking a team that few gave a chance at a post-season birth far into the playoffs. The Jets' run culminated in an AFC Championship game as they gave the odds-on favorite and eventual champion Denver Broncos a run for their money in 1998.

Fast forward to 2003. After suffering yet another 5-11 campaign, Cowboys’ owner Jerry Jones landed The Tuna and Parcells turned around yet another bottom feeder. Parcells brought the Cowboys to the post season twice, barely losing to the Seattle Seahawks in 2006. Again, while the Cowboys didn’t produce a championship, Parcells took a team that had posted a 5-11 record three years in a row and quickly turned them into a contender.

All four teams that Parcells took over had suffered losing campaigns in the previous year, and all four reached the playoffs by year two of his tenure—something that no other coach can say.

Bill Belichick

Bill Belichick has all but secured his position as one of the greatest coaches of modern history, suffering only one losing season during his tenure to date in New England, going 5-11 in his first year. From 2001 to 2007, Belichick brought his team to the Super Bowl four times, winning three, and performing the unthinkable—building a dynasty in the modern day era of free agency.

His game planning against the Rams’ "Greatest Show On Turf" in Superbowl XXXVI was pure genius. While most opposing defensive coordinators had tried in vain to get to Kurt Warner and force throws underneath, Belichick alternated between sporadic blitzes with dropping additional defenders back in coverage to clog passing lanes and limit yards-after-catch.

A Rams’ offense that previously averaged 31 points-per-game was brought down to Earth and held to 17 points overall. New England capitalized on three Rams’ turnovers and cashed them in for 17 points, with Adam Vinatieri kicking the game-winner from 48 yards out. Belichick’s defense accomplished what many said could not be done—control the Rams’ explosive offense, force turnovers, and beat them on artificial turf.

Belichick’s offenses are efficient, well-oiled machines that methodically drive downfield. While they are capable of the big play, their calling card usually consists of well-built drives consisting of carefully scripted plays—each setting up the next—that consistently move the chains into the red zone. Defensively his blitz packages and diverse coverage schemes are always cutting edge innovation.

Both coaches’ teams consist of "lunch pail guys", old-school throwbacks that bring their lunch pails to work every day. Usually their teams are void of attention-seeking superstars. Disciplined football is stressed in both camps—smart, conservative play that is void of penalties on defense, and smart with the football on offense.

Both like defenders with size up front, and both are intelligent enough to alter their schemes to their personnel when they know that they don’t have the players to match their preferred defensive alignments.

I don’t think that you can call Belichick the winner of this coaching derby simply because he owns more Lombardi Trophies. If Parcells remained in any one location in which he coached, he well may have picked up another.

Parcells picked four different teams up off of the floor, dusted them off, and turned them into respectable, playoff-caliber franchises—a unique accomplishment that no other coach has achieved.

Nor can you state that Parcells holds the edge, because the fact that Belichick helped build a dynasty in the modern day era of free agency is nothing short of remarkable. Today’s athlete actually accepting less money to play for a team because he respects the system? That's unheard of in the 21^st century. Belichick helped to script the blueprint for long-term success in the 21^st century free agent market.

So before we declare a winner or loser—keep in mind that both of their situations are unique, and both have firmly secured their place in NFL history.

State of the Union: Oakland Raiders

Paul Kotch — Mon, 07 Apr 2008 17:07:03 -0400

Much has been said regarding the rumors that have swirled around the Raiders this offseason. Let’s take a break from the annual firestorm and take a look at the Silver and Black from an X’s and O’s standpoint.

Offense

While JaMarcus Russell gained valuable experience under center in 2007, the fact that he missed his entire rookie training camp can not be ignored. His progress from year one to year two must be measured accordingly. Russell will continue to experience growing pains and make mistakes as a result.

His focus will be on making smart decisions with the football. Familiarity with the offense will help; look for Kiffin to encourage his young quarterback to utilize his tight end and running backs in the passing game to ease the pressure, while showcasing his arm strength deep downfield on occasion to keep defenses honest.

It is Russells’ ability to improve over last year’s performance that is the most important factor for the Raiders as they head into 2008.

Defense

Oakland significantly upgraded the secondary with the addition of Gibril Wilson at safety and DeAngelo Hall at cornerback. Wilson gives the Raiders a physical presence with sure tackling ability that they have lacked at safety, while Hall will combine forces with Nnamdi Asomugha for an elite man-to-man duo at cornerback.

The Raiders have still failed to fully address their needs in the trenches on defense. Regardless of how much faith they have in Tommy Kelly, they still have major question marks when it comes to stopping the run.

A talented Raiders’ linebacking corps suffers as a result of the lack of production at the defensive tackle position.

Their inability to pressure opposing quarterbacks must be addressed as well. An elite cornerback tandem will not match up with a talented quarterback who is comfortable in the pocket. Despite their ability to match up man-to-man at the corners, if there is no pressure up front the defensive backs will lost the battle every time.

Special Teams

The loss of Chris Carr to the Titans is offset by the addition of Hall. Hall can be used as a punt/kick returner if Al Davis deems necessary.

Before anyone insists that he wouldn’t risk injury to his precious cornerback, consider the fact that Charles Woodson was used as a return man and he will not hesitate to do the same with Hall if he feels that the team needs a spark.

Draft Outlook

Despite his play-making ability, I don’t think selecting Darren McFadden would be the best choice for the Raiders. Justin Fargas proved that he is more than capable of churning out the yardage. With LaMont Jordan and Dominic Rhodes in the stable, and a healthy Michael Bush waiting in the wings, I think the Raiders have sufficient firepower at the position.

If Al Davis insists on going offense, I think he needs to take a long, hard look at Jake Long. While he may not be the flashy/popular choice, adding bodyguards for the investment that is JaMarcus Russell would be an intelligent choice.

I suggest that the Raiders look to bolster the defense and add Chris Long, with Glenn Dorsey and Vernon Gholston as second and third choice respectively.