Bleacher Report - Articles by rob munstis

Is Daisuke Matsuzaka the No. 3 Starter For Boston Red Sox?

rob munstis — Fri, 02 Oct 2009 23:39:25 -0400

Sept. 15 vs LAA—6 IP, 3 H, 0 ER, 3 BB, 5 K, Win

Sept. 20 @ BAL—5.1 IP, 8 H, 3 ER, 1 BB, 5 K, Win

Sept. 26 @ NYY—7.0 IP, 6 H, 1 ER, 5 BB, 3 K, Loss (0-3)

Oct. 2 vs CLE—6.0 IP, 5 H, 2 ER, 3 BB, 7 K, Win

Since returning from the DL—3-1 record, 2.24 ERA...beat the Angels and held the Yankees in check—in New York.

Bottom Line: He still has some adventurous moments, like his...

Click the link to read more...

"Too Much, Too Early" for Daisuke Matsuzaka? I Say No

rob munstis — Wed, 25 Mar 2009 09:47:44 -0400

Rob manages The Bottom Line blog. Read more from Rob HERE.

Daisuke Matsuaka threw 98 pitches over 4 2/3 innings of work in Japan's win over the U.S. in the World Baseball Classic semifinals. He went on to win his second WBC MVP award after going 3-0 with a 2.45 ERA in three starts (14.2 IP).

Great news right? Tony Mazz of the Boston Globe doesn't think so:

Overreacting, you say? Maybe yes, maybe no. Matsuzaka now has been with the Sox for two full seasons and won 33 games, suggesting his big league career is off to a glorious start.

At the same time, Matsuzaka last year pitched fewer innings than any starter in history to win at least 18 games, and he faded badly as a rookie during the second half of a 2007 campaign in which he appeared to be running on fumes in September and October...

Now, with more than a week remaining in March, Matsuzaka is already tossing 98 pitches in 4 2/3 innings of tournament play.

If that doesn't make you a little nervous, it should.

While I don't like the idea of Dice-K throwing 98 pitches in March, I'm not as concerned as Tony is...and I'll explain why.

When Matsuzaka agreed to pitch for Japan in this year's WBC, I was as concerned as the next guy. But back in February we took a look at a few of the starters that chose to represent their country in the 2006 WBC and discovered the following:

Johan Santana gave Venezuela 8.1 innings of work, fanning 10 and posting a 2.16 ERA through two starts. In a Round Two loss to Cuba, Santana threw 67 pitches over five innings...that was on March 14. In comparison, Matsuzaka, in this year's WBC, threw 86 pitches over six innings in a 6-0 win over Cuba on March 15.

86 is more than 67, but consider this: In 2006, Santana (27 at the time) went on to win the Cy Young Award. He pitched 233.2 innings that year, a career high at the time, and another eight in a playoff start against Oakland. He posted a 19-6 record with 245 strikeouts and a 2.77 ERA.

Matsuzaka will turn 29 in September. He started one more game than Santana did in 2006 and was up to 98 pitches, but is that reason enough to be nervous instead of excited?

Let's dig a little deeper...

Matsuzka is a good pitcher, maybe even a great pitcher. But everybody is different and every "body" is different, right? So rather than compare him to Santana, let's just look at his post-2006 WBC stats for the Seibu Lions:

Matsuzaka made 25 starts for the Lions in 2006. He only threw 186 total innings, but posted a career best 2.13 ERA to go along with a 17-5 record and 200 strikeouts. It would appear that the 13 innings (3 starts) he pitched in the 2006 WBC did not slow him down...

So far I don't see much evidence to support the idea that Matsuzaka is going to fall apart this September, but Tony isn't saying Matsuzaka can't win another 15 games in 2009...he seems to more concerned with Dice-K's lack of innings pitched, bit over all and per game:

Of the 88 major league pitchers to qualify for the ERA title last season, Matsuzaka ranked 83rd in innings, ahead of only Jason Marquis, Brandon Backe, Manny Parra, Ian Snell, and John Lackey, the last of whom averaged nearly seven innings a start compared to Matsuzaka's 5 2/3.

Matsuzaka pitched 167.2 innings in 2008. Not the 200 innings you'd prefer from a starter, but there are two reason's for the low number;

1. Matsuzaka's stint on the DL resulted in just six innings pitched in June.

2. High pitch counts early in games.

Having to go on the disabled list certainly solidifies Tony's points from above. However, stating that Dice-K's 5.75 innings per start is also a result of a tired arm doesn't float with me.

Matsuzaka struggled to get beyond the sixth inning in 2008 because he walked 94 batters and refused to give in to hitters...not because his arm was tired or injured. In 2007 he walked 80 batters, but most of us were concerned with his one-inning meltdowns more that the walks.

In 2008, it became apparent that Matsuzaka simply has a style of pitching that is frustrating to watch. This style also results in early exits, which leads to low inning totals on the season, but anyone who watched a single Matsuzaka start last season knows that the pitch totals weren't low.

In five September starts, Matsuzaka eclipsed the 100 pitch mark in four of those five games, despite averaging 5.4 innings per game. The Red Sox won three of those five games and Dice-K posted a 3.33 ERA and a .206 BAA that month—proving that his style, though frustrating, is effective.

All those innings and high pitch counts are going to catch up to Dice-K, but it won't happen in 2009. Tony says that the Red Sox might need Matsuzaka more than ever in 2009, noting the recent injuries to Beckett and Penny, the age of Wakefield and the possible strain on a young Jon Lester. But I think that's a "glass half empty" look at things.

Josh Beckett has been nasty this spring. Brad Penny has a long way to go, but looked great in his first start. Jon Lester and Clay Buchholz are young and have pitched well. And John Smoltz is wishing it was June already.

A deep bullpen will enable Francona to pull starters without fear and that should keep everyone fresh throughout the season. That's my "glass is half full" approach.

Bottom Line:This article is not an attack on Tony's credibility. It's simply a different angle on the story. Matsuzaka pitched over 1,400 innings in eight years with the Seibu Lions. Add the 408 innings he's thrown for the Red Sox and you get 1,800 innings work on a 28 year-old arm...and that doesn't include the three years he pitched for Yokohama High School.

But that doesn't mean he is destined to fall apart at 30. Johan Santana came back from the WBC and won the Cy Young Award at 27...is it such a stretch to think that Matsuzaka could do the same?

Read more from Rob at The Bottom Line blog.

Who Will Win More Games: Wakefield, Penny, Buchholz, or Smoltz?

rob munstis — Tue, 24 Mar 2009 09:15:22 -0400

Rob writes and manages The Bottom Line blog. Read more from Rob HERE.

Clay Buchholz's young career has been a roller coaster ride. After throwing a no-hitter as a September call-up in 2007, Buchholz struggled through 2008 and was eventually demoted to Triple A. He spent this offseason fixing his mechanics and getting his mind right...and it seems to have paid off.

Buchholz started last Friday's game against the Pirates having allowed just one run in 8.2 innings (3 starts) of work.

Tito says his success has come from keeping the ball down in the zone, something he struggled to do in 2008, thanks to poor mechanics.

Against Pittsburgh, Bucky lasted five innings and held the Bucs to four hits and one unearned run, while adding three more strikeouts—giving him a team best 12 this spring.

But despite Bucky's success this spring, he's not likely to start the 2009 season on the 25-man roster. Instead, veteran Tim Wakefield and offseason acquistion Brad Penny will round out the starting rotation...and come June, John Smoltz will be looking for starts.

Wakefield has struggled this spring (7.71 ERA, 9.1 IP, 7 BB, 6 SO), but you always roll the dice when Wake takes the mound. Given 30-plus starts, Wake is almost a lock for 10-15 wins, but health has become a concern for the 42-year-old knuckleballer.

He'll also be working with a new catcher this season: George Kottaras, but the new duo looked good in a minor league game last Thursday:

"I'm very confident," Wakefield said, of having Kottaras behind the plate. "I'm sad for Josh [who was released this week], again. It's unfortunate, but that's the business of baseball sometimes. Josh did a great job and I hope he catches on somewhere and continues his career.

"He's been a true professional. He did everything right here, it just didn't happen. On the other side, Georgie did a tremendous job today and I have the utmost confidence in him that he'll be able to last all season long with me."

Brad Penny has his own set of health concerns and has alredy been set back this spring. But he looked impressive in a minor league game against the Class A Minnesota Twins squad last Wednesday. He threw 41 pitches (30 for strikes), gave up one hit and struck out four.

Then on Monday, he threw three hitless innings against the Tigers, walking one and fanning three. Penny threw 33 pitches total (22 strikes) and hit 95 MPH on the radar gun without hesitation.

Penny will continue to build his pitch count and shoulder strength through the rest of spring training and should make his first major league start in late March...as long as the shoulder holds up.

"It just depends on how strong he gets and how lengthened out," Terry Francona said. "I don't know that we need to put a date on it. But more important than that date is getting him built up for the long haul. That's what we're looking at, and we'll certainly talk to him about it."

Smoltz is ahead of schedule and chomping at the bit...but unless another starter goes down, he'll be hard pressed to log more than 10 starts in 2009. But if any pitcher can defy the laws of physics and win 10 games in 10 starts at the age of 42, it's John Smoltz.

With all these pitchers and question marks, it's anyone's guess how many starts, let alone wins, each of these pitchers will get in 2009... but I like a challenge and I bet you guys do too.

Who do you think will tally more wins in 2009? Cast you vote by clicking HERE.

Josh Bard Released By Boston Red Sox: Now What?

rob munstis — Wed, 18 Mar 2009 14:05:05 -0400

Extra Bases is reporting that the Red Sox have cut catcher Josh Bard.

Bard signed a one-year deal with the Red Sox worth $1.7 million in late December, with a team option for a second year. But his contract was not guaranteed, and by releasing him now the Red Sox are obligated to pay only one-sixth ($283,333) of his 2009 salary.

Bard appeared to be first in line for the backup catcher position, but now George Kottaras (who skipped the WBC to stay in camp with the Red Sox) could be helping Jason Varitek behind the plate this year.

Here's a look at the current spring stats:

Bottom Line: Varitek has been working on his approach from the left side, so the crappy numbers above have to be taken with a grain of salt; however, cutting Bard was a curious move, since he was the best hitting catcher, and neither Kottaras nor Brown is the second coming of Johnny Bench.

Theories about a trade for a catcher are already buzzing around the blogosphere...

Clay Buchholz's stock is up (1.04 ERA, 8.2 IP, 9 SO, 2 BB), Micheal Bowden's stock is down (9.39 ERA, 7.2 IP, 7 SO, 4BB), and Daniel Bard's success (0.00 ERA, 7 IP, 10 SO, 2 BB) could have the Red Sox thinking about keeping Justin Masterson as a starter—making Buchholz expendable, while keeping the bullpen strong.

Here's a look at a few catchers that had been named as possible trade candidates this offseason:

That Montero kid is looking pretty good...I'm just saying.

Read more from Bottom Line Rob at www.bottomlinesox.com.