Bleacher Report - Articles by MJ Kasprzak

San Jose Sharks Ready for Some Home Cooking

MJ Kasprzak — Thu, 03 Dec 2009 01:42:06 -0500

Turn up the Heatley, Boyle a pot of stew, pour a cup of Joe, and open a bottle of Marleau—the San Jose Sharks are finally home for a while.

The frequent flyer team, with 18 of their first 28 games on the road, had one six game Eastern conference swing and two three-game trips into the Eastern Time Zone in the first two months of the season. Now they will play 21 of their next 28 games in the friendly confines of the Shark Tank.

Then again, maybe they should stay on the road. The Sharks are 11-5-2 in unfriendly territory, a point percentage of .667, behind only the Calgary Flames among Western Conference teams who have to travel over three time zones. Moreover, they are 10-2-2 away from the Tank in the last 55 days.

San Jose should be home to a lot of winning for its Sharks from now through February 2, 2010, since the team is the second-best home team in the league (8-1-2; Chicago is 10-1-3) and best over the past 14 months. At their current pace, they should amass 44 more points in the 27 home games between now and then, and 54 overall.

Even without games at home, the Sharks have the league's best record, whether measured by the NHL's archaic and misleading points system that rewards a team higher standing for having one more overtime loss in four more games played than a competitor, or by point percentage, which is how any reasonable system would gauge success.

Thus, they project to increasing their 42 points to 96 by the time the evening news in the home state of Joe Pavelski and me reports on Jimmy the Groundhog's predictions regarding winter. Last season, that would have been good enough for the sixth seed in the West, and there will be a third of the season left to play.

Don't get me wrong: I am still nervous about the Sharks' ability to play this well in the playoffs. However, last season when the team was running away with the President's Trophy by February, the situation was very different:

The team had played mostly home games.
They had a stretch coming up in which they played 32 games in 63 days to end the season, wearing them down.
They did not experience many injuries until March. This year, they have fought through many key players missing significant time. Rob Blake, Joe Pavelski, Devin Setoguchi, and Torrey Mitchell all see special teams action (either power play, penalty kill, or both) and have missed over ten games each.
They are no longer dominating teams, rarely out-shooting them 2:1 as they often did last season, and having to battle out victories. They rank only 12th in shots per game and 18th in shots yielded, a far cry from their second and first place rankings, respectively, last season.

One thing that is very much like last year is the number of players seeing the scoresheet. Three players—Joe Thornton, Patrick Marleau, and Dany Heatley—have all scored more than a point a game. Marleau and Heatley are in the top three in the league in goals scored, Marleau and Thornton are in points, and Thornton leads the league with more than an assist per game.

But there is also secondary scoring: 21 players have scored a goal, and seven have scored more than five. There are 24 players who have scored either a goal or two points, and 10 who are in the double digits in scoring, including three defencemen, one of whom is a rookie that was not projected to make the roster this offseason.

Furthermore, only Scott Nichol, who because of his defence pulls the most difficult assignments, is below a -2 rating. Thanks to better role players than in years passed, the team is well-balanced, ranking in the top quarter in goals scored (second, 3.38) and goals against (seventh, 2.55) average, power play (fifth, 23.5 percent) and penalty kill (first, 86 percent), and faceoffs (first, 56.4 percent).

Perhaps most encouraging to me, as someone who firmly believes that Evgeni Nabokov cannot play more than about 85 games including the postseason and still be effective, is the play of backup netminder Thomas Greiss. This was the weakness that had me putting the Anaheim Ducks, with two great goalies, ahead of the Sharks in the standings.

That looks pretty dumb right now, with San Jose having the league's best record and the Ducks being 13th in the Western Conference, but it's still early. Nevertheless, the Ducks do have the look of a team that lacks skilled defencemen and is aging in key positions, while the Sharks look like a team that is coming of age.

Greiss, for instance, has seen limited action but is 3-2 with a .902 save percentage and a 2.96 goals against average. That would not inspire confidence were the team needing to count on him because of an injury to Nabby, but it is more than enough to allow Nabby to avoid playing on back-to-back nights or ever pulling four games in a week.

That would leave him with 68 games in the regular season, meaning unless the Sharks became the first team ever to play four full seven-game series, Nabby could avoid exceeding the 85-game threshold.

Now that the team has shown more grit, the one lingering Achilles Heel is Nabby's ability to handle the load. It is the biggest key to this team going deep in the playoffs.

Green Bay Packers Have Reason to Be Thankful

MJ Kasprzak — Fri, 27 Nov 2009 04:14:45 -0500

On Thanksgiving morning, the Packers were away from their families in Detroit. By evening, they had many reasons to be thankful.

Not only had they soundly beaten the hapless Lions again, but with the New York Giants loss to the Broncos, the team was guaranteed to enter the last month of this season as one of the six teams in the playoff picture.

Here are the top five things I am thankful for as a Packers fan:

That Aaron Rodgers has 30 TDs and only one pick in the red zone for his career. I am sure there has never been a quarterback who had that ratio through his first 27 games started.
Thanks to that and the defense's ability to go after the ball, the Packers lead the league with a turnover ratio of +17.
Above their ball-hawking, this defense ranks SECOND in the league in yards allowed...sorry, Mark, but no mediocre defense ranks in the 97th percentile in yards and 100th in turnovers.
Donald Driver and Charles Woodson, great guys and great players who are proof that old guys can get it done on the field as well as provide leadership to the youngest roster in football (the reason our future is brighter than any other team's).
That with four more days to prepare than the Ravens have for a game in Green Bay, the Packers have a great chance to win their fourth straight.

Now we can take a look at the Packers report card for the Michigan Massacre...

Quarterback: B+

Even Rodgers' lone fumble came on a fourth-down play and thus did not hurt the team (the only Detroit sack, for a loss of six). He was 28-of-39 (.718) for 348 yards (8.9 per ATTEMPT) and three touchdowns without a pick, earning a passer rating of 124.7. He ran just once for five yards.

So with those stats, why did he get just a B+? For one thing, he was facing the league's worst defense and worst passing defense: Rodgers needed a perfect game (157 passer rating) to get an A. Also, his accuracy was off in the first half, lending to the close score going into the break.

Running Backs: D

Ryan Grant ran 20 times for just 61 yards (3.1 average) and was tackled for a safety. True, by that time the Lions were focused on stopping the run, and he had a few good runs in the first three quarters, but you need your top runner to do better than that. Brandon Jackson was less effective, with six carries for 14 yards (2.3).

The unit was effective in the passing game: Grant and fullback Korey Hall combined for five catches for 52 yards. However, this totals just 127 yards on 31 touches for 4.1 yards per touch with no touchdowns.

Receivers: B+

Again, they were up against the Lions, so I am hard-pressed to give out an A. However, the Lions have a pretty good linebacking corps and the Packers still got production out of both tight ends.

Donald Lee lept (how come everyone insists on using leaped and dived instead of lept and dove, anyway?) over the defense for his one score, and combined with Jermichael Finley for seven catches and 47 yards.

Of course, the other Donald was the unit's Driver, with seven catches, 142 yards (20.3), and a score. Greg Jennings had four catches for 53 yards and James Jones had four for 35 with a touchdown. Jordy Nelson had just one catch, but it was for 19 yards, giving the corps 23 catches for 296 yards (12.9 average).

Offensive Line: B

Sure, this unit was up against the same bad defense, but this same team got five sacks in the last matchup and just the one today.

On Rodgers' 68-yard completion to Driver, he had time to prepare the Thanksgiving turkey complete with stuffing. He was rarely even hit on the day, making this a nearly flawless performance in the passing game.

However, they struggled in the running game against a decent run defense. The one area the line actually ranks near the top of the league is not giving up negative plays, but twice the Lions were there to get the safety, and only Grant's effort kept it from happening the first time.

Much of the problem in the running game can be attributed to them not providing any holes in the second half.

Defensive Line: B

The line's stats are poorer than usual for a 3-4 defense, with just three tackles and five assists between them.

However, they deserve most of the credit for holding Kevin Smith to just 43 yards on 18 carries (2.4 average); even with Stafford's scrambles, the Lions only managed 73 yards on 23 carries (3.2). Detroit may be 26th in the NFL in rushing yards, but that is a solid performance.

Moreover, while they generated no sacks and the team had only two, Stafford was under pretty consistent pressure. That led to a couple bad decisions that enabled the defense to generate five turnovers.

Linebackers: D+

The linebacking corps combined for 16 tackles, 10 assists, and a sack (again by Clay Matthews), and deserve a lot of credit for applying pressure on Stafford, as well.

However, nearly all the passing yards yielded went to the running backs (six catches, 62 yards is entirely on the linebackers) and tight ends (nine for 73 is primarily on them).

Defensive Backs: A

Charles Woodson once again shined, and if he is not the defensive player of the year, it will be the biggest injustice since a Minnesota judge got to overrule the entire league about the suspensions issued to its own players.

Sure, he gave up the lone touchdown to Calvin Johnson, but he also scored one of his own from Stafford. In fact, he had as many picks as Johnson had catches, plus a fumble forced that he then recovered on a sack.

The rest of the backfield may not have been playing elite talent like Johnson, but outside of one 47-yard catch by Dennis Northcutt (a pretty good receiver), they gave up just two catches for 21 yards.

Nick Collins and Tramon Williams added interceptions, and the backfield accounted for 16 tackles, an assist, a sack, four picks, and the fumble forced and recovered.

The one blemish was Jarrett Bush, who once again proved he was athletic enough to be there to make a play but lacking in the ability to do it.

He missed on two interceptions, including the big play to Northcutt; were it not for those failings, the unit grade would have been an A+.

Special Teams: D-

Same tune, different note. This time, the Packers did not give up any exceptionally long returns, but did have two pretty long ones of 34 yards. And of course, Jordy Nelson's fumble on the opening kick led to the only Lions touchdown and lead.

Finally, Mason Crosby missed a 43-yard field goal, making two others from just 22 and 25 yards and getting only one kick into the end zone in a dome.

In all, the Packers averaged a mediocre 20 yards per kick return besides fumbling, and just two yards per punt return.

The Lions averaged under 20 yards per kick return because they muffed one kick and had to cover it, but they did get 14 yards on their one punt return.

Jeremy Kapinos had just over a 32-yard net despite having only one of three punts returned and not having one land inside the 20.

Green Bay Packers-San Francisco Niners: Grades and Analysis

MJ Kasprzak — Wed, 25 Nov 2009 05:01:46 -0500

Green Bay's victory over the San Francisco 49ers put them in the playoffs...for now. The 6-4 record ties us with the Philadelphia Eagles and the New York Giants, but by virtue of a tie-break edge over New York (and Philly's edge over us), we are the sixth seed as of this moment.

But it came at an incredible cost, with both Aaron Kampman and Al Harris tearing their ACL with virtually no contact and away from the play; they are lost for the season. Kampman was having his best game (four tackles, a sack, and a pass defensed), and Al Harris is one of the top No. 2 corners in the league—on most teams, he'd be their top guy.

This has convinced me that it is time to make a change...to the field. Playing on Lambeau Field is hazardous to any player's health, and we play seven more games there than any of our opponents. The vast majority of injuries in Packers games this season, whether to us or to opponents, have occurred at home.

I am guessing this was the case last season, when the team suffered more injuries than any other. However, I did not start tracking it until they started happening again this year.

When you have a recurring problem spanning 26 games, it cannot be chalked up to bad luck. After last season, Rock Gullickson and the entire strength and conditioning coaching staff were blamed and let go. Perhaps the best strength and conditioning coach in the business, Dave Redding, was hired to replace him.

Two seasons, two coaches—it's gotten better, but it's still bad. The Packers have lost the following key players to injury for the season:

1. Will Blackmon, the primary kick and punt returner and dimeback—he is the only player on this list to go on injured reserve after a road game

2. Aaron Kampman, OLB and the team's best pass rusher

3. Al Harris, the team's second-best cornerback

4. Jason Spitz, starting center and back-up guard

5. DeShawn Wynn, the team's third-down back

Currently, the Packers have 17 players listed on their injury report—only New England has more. By contrast, the division-leading Minnesota Vikings have just nine players on that report.

Before asking Tightwad Ted to get some free agent help for the team this off-season (if he remains, which he is likely to since I believe the Packers will win at least half of their remaining games to finish with a winning record), maybe we should ask him to upgrade the field and maybe even the grounds crew...

Here is my assessment of the Packers performance against the San Francisco Forty-Niners:

Quarterback: A-

Aaron Rodgers was 32-45 for 344 yards, two touchdowns, and no picks (a 108 rating—he is now the fifth-ranked passer in the league) against a pretty good pass defense. He was only sacked twice, although he was called for a borderline intentional grounding because he had a little too much faith in his feet to get him out of the sack.

And why not? He is the leading rusher among quarterbacks. Thanks to those yards, he trails only Tom Brady and Peyton Manning in yards generated by quarterbacks (303/game).

His 22 total touchdowns are second only to Drew Brees' 24; his seven turnovers trails only Kyle Orton and the Old Guy (proof that what I had been saying all along was true—if he ever stayed within the system rather than taking unnecessary chances, he'd be easily the greatest of all-time) among quarterbacks playing in every game this season.

Running Back: A-

Ryan Grant had 129 yards on 21 carries (6.1 average) with a touchdown against the third-ranked rush defense in the NFL. Brandon Jackson added 16 yards on four carries to give Packers backs 145 yards on 25 carries (5.8 average).

Jackson also had 65 yards on six catches and Grant had two for 16 yards. That means that in all the backs generated 226 yards on just 33 touches (6.8 average), with one score and no turnovers. Those are good numbers against the Cleveland Browns, much less the formidable Niners linebacking corps—rarely was All Pro Patrick Willis even mentioned.

Receivers: C+

This might have been better were it not for the tight ends, both of whom had drops. Jermichael Finley led the team with seven catches despite the drop, but just 54 yards; Donald Lee had no catches and the other drop, and I never saw Spencer Havner.

To some extent this is due to the incredible linebackers of the Niners, but the running backs were able to overcome that, and unlike backs, tight ends sometimes get to go up against safeties.

The wide receivers were led by Greg Jennings with five catches for 126 and a touchdown. But the rest of the unit had just 12 receptions for 83 yards (6.9 average) and a score (by fourth receiver Jordy Nelson). In their entirety, the receivers generated 263 yards on two dozen catches for an average of 11 yards.

Offensive Line: C+

As previously mentioned, the line gave up just two sacks against the Niners—just over the 1.89/game pace. Take away the three kneeldowns by Rodgers and the line helped pave the way for 162 yards on 29 carries (5.6 average). While a lot of that is on Grant, including breaking a tackle for a 21-yard gain, there were plenty of holes to make it easier for him.

Defensive Line: B-

The line was run over when the Niners bothered to hand the ball off—ten carries for 69 yards. The problem was that the Packers jumped out to such a lead the Niners could not afford to run, and that is a big part of why the unit managed just four tackles and no assists collectively.

The reason is that in the first half Alex Smith had no time to pass. Usually, the line just paves the way for the pressure, Cullen Jenkins and B.J. Raji combined for two of the team's three sacks and were instrumental in hurrying the former top pick.

Linebackers: D

Kampman led this unit despite playing less than a full game, generating a sack and four tackles. The rest of the unit got just six tackles and three assists, and Vernon Davis torched them for 108 yards in six catches with a touchdown. Furthermore, Frank Gore had three catches for just nine yards, but most of it came on a fourth down touchdown. That's nine catches for 117 yards (13 average) and two scores.

Defensive Backs: B

Alex Smith completed fewer than half of his passes, and while Michael Crabtree caught a 38-yard touchdown, but outside of that play he had a pedestrian thre catches for 39 yards. The wide receiving corps as a whole managed just seven catches for 99 yards and that one score. The defensive backfield generated a dozen tackles, an assist, and an interception (by Nick Collins) setting up the lone Packers score in the second half.

Special Teams: D+

Once again, the Packers gave up a long return, this time a 76-yard kick return by Josh Morgan (his other return was for 24). The rest of the coverage was better, as the other two returners managed just 18 and 13 yards and punt returns averaged only about two yards.

Tramon Williams had punt returns of 27 and five yards, and Jordy Nelson averaged about 21-yards on his four kick returns. Mason Crosby got five of his six kickoffs into the endzone, two of which were touchbacks, and hit on all six kicks, albeit none over 27-yards away. Jeremy Kapinos had five punts with a 38-yard net average including two that were stopped inside the 20.

Packers-Niners: Q&A with Samuel Lam

MJ Kasprzak — Sun, 22 Nov 2009 00:24:55 -0500

The Niners and Packers have been inextricably linked from the 2005 draft, when the Niners selected Alex Smith over Aaron Rodgers. Since then, the teams have picked back-to-back twice (A.J. Hawk before Vernon Davis in 2006 and B.J. Raji before Michael Crabtree in 2009).

I posed the following five questions to Samuel Lam, a 49ers writer for Examiner.com, Mining the Gold Rush on MVN.com, and Bleacher Report . You can go to Examiner.com to see my answers to his five questions...

1. With the Packers being fourth in the league against the run and tied for third in yards per carry allowed despite having played Adrian Peterson twice, do you think the Niners will have to adjust to not having Frank Gore's usual production or can they find a way to get over 100 total yards out of him anyway?

Either way, the 49ers have been able to win. In the team’s first game, Gore was held in check by the Cardinals, but the 49ers were able to find a way to get into the endzone in the very end. If Gore cannot get to his 100 yards, I think the 49ers still have to establish the run.

One of the things that the 49ers have done since Alex Smith took over center was a change in offensive philosophy. The 49ers are a passing team now and if the 49ers can’t get the ball moving on the ground, Smith will be asked to pass. It may not seem too much of a change for the 49ers, but a passing game that has struggled is a big deal to the 49ers. Getting Gore going will be very important, but the confidence in Smith’s passing attack will just be as important.

2. How much more of a threat is the Niners passing attack with the development of Vernon Davis, arrival of Michael Crabtree, and switch to Alex Smith?

On paper, they should be dangerous. Since Smith took over, the 49ers have used his comfort with Davis as a key component to their attack. Smith is a quarterback that is designed to throw. With the play of Davis and the two starting wide receivers in Crabtree and Josh Morgan, the 49ers should be dangerous. We have yet to see Crabtree and Morgan break out and change games. But if we look at what the 49ers had in the beginning of the year compared to now, their passing attack has definitely improved.

3. Do you think the Niners will struggle at all to adjust to the 3-4 since they have not seen it, and how much will the fact that they have tinkered with implementing it help them?

Being in the 3-4 defense itself will definitely help the 49ers our in their strategy against the Packers. And since the 49ers also got an opportunity to face a 3-4 defense in the preseason against Denver, that can help as well. I don’t think the team will struggle against it. But I would believe that Smith will take extra precaution before the snap to recognize which linebackers might blitz on the play. Given that the 49ers are almost on pace to match last year’s sack total, the 49ers have to be extremely careful.

4. San Francisco is tops in the league in yards per carry allowed and third in rushing yards allowed. However, they are one of only ten teams to have fewer sacks than the Packers.

Do you expect them to blitz a lot to compensate for their lack of pass rush because they are facing a mediocre rushing attack, or rely on their front four given that Green Bay has allowed over a third more sacks than any other team in the league?

I hope the 49ers get blitz-happy. Even though Mike Singletary said that he isn’t too worried that the pass rush isn’t as effective as last year, I’m sure he will use whatever schemes out there to confuse Aaron Rodgers. The 49ers team has done extremely well in applying pressure on quarterbacks this year. However, they haven’t finished the job with sacks.

The 49ers front-seven has the talent to bring pressure. With the Packers struggle to protect Rodgers, the 49ers should send their blitzes and force Rodgers to throw early. It’s a gamble that the team has to take. We haven’t seen enough aggression from the 49ers all year and this looks to be the perfect opportunity for them to send the blitzes.

5. Having played for the Packers chief rival for his entire career, do you feel this game will have any more importance for Mike Singletary than the others on his schedule?

I want to believe that Coach Sing is thinking about it, but I doubt he is. Even against his former team the Bears, he said that they were just another team on the schedule. I think right now, Singletary is just concerned about winning. At 4-5 and a playoff spot right in front, Singletary won’t occupy his mind with any former rival talk. He just needs to win the game.

Green Bay Packers Midseason Grades, Volume II

MJ Kasprzak — Fri, 20 Nov 2009 20:01:38 -0500

I will now grade the defense and special teams. I would like to remind everyone of my first prediction before the start of the season: “The defense will finish the season in the top quarter of the league.”

Let me read some of the comments I got from doubters on both Sports Scribes and Bleacher Report when I made points about expecting great things from the Packers defense:

"Packer's D won't get to the top eight this year. AFC has the better defenses. In the NFC the Giants, Cowboys, Eagles, and Carolina will keep the Packers D out of the elite."
"I like the Packers personel (sic) with their new defense, but the Vikings and Bears are ready RIGHT NOW defensively….(The Bears) defense, regardless of a successful transition or not, is still better than Green Bay's, and I can easily say the same for Minnesota's, too. (For the record, neither are anywhere near as good—Minnesota ranks 15th and the Bears 10th.)"
"It seems to me that the Packers are "forcing" a 3/4 defense on a 4/3 roster. It'll be interesting to see how it all plays out, but I'm still pretty convinced the Packers in 2009 would be best served to stick with a 4/3…"
"Delusional packer fans (MJ and DT): It's all about running the ball and stopping the run. Minnesota can do both and GB can do neither. Case closed….If you were to base your pick on sound judgement (sic), you would have GB finishing third in the North (standings)."
"On other articles I wrote, there were all sorts of comments eluding to the defense being a dumb move because our best lineman, Aaron Kampman, would be forced to play another position. Even though his coach, Kevin Greene, was successful in that transition a decade ago, that was us “trying to fit a square peg in a round hole” and was going to make the entire defense unsuccessful."

Instead, the Packers are better than the top quarter—we are in the top eight. More than that, we have balance—Green Bay is in the top 10 in nearly every category: points allowed (10th) third down percentage (third), time of possession (fifth), turnovers forced (second), total yards allowed (fourth), passing yards (sixth), yards per pass attempt (tied-ninth), rushing yards (fourth), and average per carry (third). The one shortcoming is we are ranked 20th in sacks.

Let’s analyze how each unit graded in each game and what the resulting mid-term grade is:

Defensive Line: B… A+, C-, C+, A-, C+, A-, B+, B-, and B average a high B.

The line is much better than it was last season. The Packers have faced top-six backs in Cedric Benson, Stephen Jackson, and Adrian Peterson twice, and still are dominating the running game primarily because of the play of the line.

Statistics are not the measure of a defensive line in a 3-4 since their role is to occupy blockers. But the line has generated 64 tackles and 25 assists, plus 3.5 sacks, seven passes defended, two interceptions, three fumbles forced, and two recovered.

Cullen Jenkins leads the way with every sack and fumbles forced, two passes defended and one pick. Johnny Jolly has both fumble recoveries, five defended passes, and one interception. They also account for 33 of the tackles and 15 of the assisted tackles.

Linebackers: C …B+, D, C, C-, B, B+, F, F, and A- average a high C.

Here the play has been inconsistent—much as predicted by myself and the Packers doubters—with two F’s and a D but also an A and two B+ scores.

There have been times the backs and tight ends gashed the Pack and times when they were held in check. Other than the Cowboys game, the lack of sacks can be attributed as much to a lack of blitzing (supposedly the cornerstone of a 3-4 defense) as poor linebacker play.

Kampman has clearly not made the adjustment (going from being a Pro Bowl player to an only above average linebacker), but there is still no doubt the new defense is a success for his new unit as well as his old one.

This unit has 184 tackles and 60 assists to go with 11.5 sacks, three fumbles forced, four recoveries, and one touchdown.

Clay Matthews leads the team in sacks (four) and fumble recoveries (three), also getting the only touchdown and a forced fumble. Nick Barnett has three sacks and leads the team with 49 tackles; he is tied for second with Brandon Chillar and A.J. Hawk with 10 assists, behind only Kampman’s 12. Kampman also has 2.5 sacks and a forced fumble, Hawk 36 tackles and a sack, and Chillar 26 tackles and a forced fumble.

Defensive Backs: B …B-, B+, B, C+, A+, B+, B-, D+, and A average a high B.

It might seem a low grade given the dominance of this unit, but remember they have faced the Lions, Rams, Browns, and a rookie Buccaneers quarterback.

They also contributed to giving up a high completion percentage and fair number of yards and scores to the Old Guy.

However, the unit has been the team’s best overall, with 143 tackles, 27 assists, three sacks, 36 passes defended, 11 interceptions (one returned for a touchdown), three fumbles forced and two recovered.

They have shut up the detractors who kept saying how old the corners were or how they would not adjust to playing zone instead of bump-and-run.

Not surprisingly, defensive player of the year candidate Charles Woodson (“old” at 32) leads the unit in all but one category—assists (Nick Collins has seven). Woody has 41 tackles, three assists, one sack, 11 passes defended, three forced fumbles, and five picks including one returned for a score. However, the rest of the backfield has gaudy stats, too.

Collins has 22 tackles, one sack, eight passes defended, two picks and a fumble recovery. Al Harris has 28 tackles, including five assists, and a sack to go with five passes defended, two picks, and a fumble recovery.

Tramon Williams has 18 tackles, two assists, eight passes defended, and a pick, and Atari Bigby has 15 tackles, six assists, four passes defended and a pick.

Special Teams: C- …B, F, D+, C-, A, D, D, F, and C+ average exactly a C-.

We are dead last in the league in punting net average, 27th in kickoff net average, 24th in field goal percentage, tied for 17th in kick return average, and 23rd in punt return average. The Packers are one of four teams to have a punt blocked.

Given these rankings, a grade of C- seems too high. However, four of Crosby’s five misses have been from over 50 yards and the other was in the 40-49 yard range, where he is still 80 percent. Crosby did miss an extra point, but has still done a fine job kicking.

They also have faced some pretty good special teams units in the Bears, Browns, Bengals, Cowboys, and Vikings (what a difference a year and the addition of Percy Harvin makes) twice. It also does not help that the Packers top returners have spent time injured, including Will Blackmon missing most of the season, but their replacements still have to perform.

Thus, the Packers composite GPA is a 2.22—four B’s, three C’s, and two D’s. That is five-ninths the possible grade, which appropriately spells a 5-4 record.

Prospects for the future range from 11-5 to 8-8—I rate the team’s chances for the remaining games as follows:

11/22: 60 percent at home against the Niners
11/26: 95 percent against the Lions
12/7: 50 percent because the Packers have three extra days to prepare for the Ravens at home
12/13: 55 percent because the Bears may be realistically out of the playoff picture already
12/20: 5 percent against the Steelers pass rush
12/27: 90 percent—Seattle is underachieving and that makes them dangerous, but we have owned them and they will be playing only for pride
1/3: 40 percent only because the Cardinals may have nothing to play for by then, but their pass rush and offense makes them tough

This adds up to almost exactly four more wins, or nine for the season. That will not be good enough to beat out the Falcons and whoever finishes in second place in the NFC East.

Green Bay Packers Midseason Grades

MJ Kasprzak — Thu, 19 Nov 2009 15:41:52 -0500

Every course has a midterm grade, and we have reached that point in the season. (Technically, the Packers reached that before the Dallas game. However, with all teams having now had their bye week, Week 10 is the most appropriate time to do any comparison.)

Thus, I will be examining the grades I have given each unit, and analyzing the team strengths and weaknesses. In this article, I will focus on the offense and aspects of coaching; my next installment will focus on defense and special teams.

Like any good teacher, I have also re-examined some of the grades to see if they are fair.

For instance, as was pointed out by my most frequently-commenting Vikings fan, Mark, even considering the strength of competition and special teams failures that enabled the Vikings to score 38 points, I clearly graded the defense for that week too high (A-/D-/B+).

Likewise, even with the sorry competition of the Lions and Rams, I graded the units too low considering both games were over early in the second half.

Hence, below are my revised midseason grades by unit. (For the original grades, you can look back at my articles following each game with key words in the titles like game recaps, analysis, and report cards.)

Note: To enable a B+ to rate higher than a B-, I am using the following values for each grade to determine average: A+=12, A=11, A-=10, B+=9…D=2, D-=1, F=0.

Quarterback: B

(B-, B, B+, A-, B+, A+, A-, D, B)

This averages to a value of 8.6—nearly a B+, but I will only give Rodgers a B thus far. His passer rating of 101.8 is good for fourth in the league, and despite the poor blocking, he has led this team to the 11th most passing yards in the league, and the third most per play.

However, 20 to 25 percent of the sacks Rodgers takes are the result of him holding the ball too long. He will not reach an A grade until he can correct this tendency. However, he is 189-296 (63.9) for 2444 yards (8.3 per attempt) with 17 touchdowns and only five interceptions.

Rodgers is also the team’s second-leading rusher with 33 carries for 229 yards (6.3 average), three touchdowns, and only two fumbles lost. That gives him 2673 total yards, 20 scores, and seven turnovers.

Running Back: C

(D+, D-, C+, B+, B-, B+, D, B, C-)

These grades average to a value of 5.4, or a high C—that is about right given decent production behind a horrible line. The team is 12th in rushing and tied for 11th in yards per carry.

Ryan Grant is ninth in the league in rushing with 168 carries for 700 yards. The resulting 4.2 yard average is 17th in the league among backs with 100-plus carries. He also has 18 catches for 132 yards (7.3 average), but has just four touchdowns and one fumble lost.

Those numbers are solid and would rate somewhere around a B-. Unfortunately, the rest of the backfield has accumulated just 131 yards on 38 carries (3.4) and 19 catches for 131 yards (6.9), with a total of three touchdowns. It is generally not a good thing to have one back account for 76 percent of a unit’s production.

Receivers (WR/TE): B-

(C-, D+, B+, A-, A-, A, B+, B-, B)

This unit has totaled 154 catches for 2196 yards (14.3) and 15 touchdowns with just one fumble lost.

Donald Driver is leading the team with 41 catches for 663 yards (16.2 average) and four touchdowns, but does have the unit’s only fumble lost. Greg Jennings is right behind him with 38 catches for 543 yards (14.3 average) and two scores.

Beyond them, the Packers have three players with over 200 receiving yards: James Jones (14 catches for 280 yards, a 20.0 average, and three scores), Jermichael Finley (17-260, 15.3, 1), and Donald Lee (26-202, 7.8, 0), despite Finley missing a couple games. Jordy Nelson (11-136, 12.4, 1) and Spencer Havner (7-112, 16.0, 4) round out a deep and talented corps.

Offensive Line: D

(F, F, D+, F, F, B+, F, F, D+)

This averages to just under a D, but in looking at the line’s running stats, I think they would warrant higher were it not for some pretty soft defenses faced.

Even if one blames Rodgers for over 20 percent—say nine—of his 41 sacks (a reasonable guess, but consider that every quarterback can be blamed for almost half that percentage), this line would have yielded the most sacks in the league. They also “lead” the NFL in quarterback hits allowed.

The team is 14th in yards per carry, but that includes how well a back exploits a secondary when he can reach it. A better indicator of a line’s blocking is the number of negative plays they yield.

Surprisingly, the Packers are fifth in the league in lowest percentage of runs that result in a loss. (The ratio of rushes of 10-plus yards to negative plays gets better as the carries move to the right.)

Coaching: D+

Offensively, the team ranks eighth in yards, is tied for seventh in points, ninth in third down percentage, and tops in turnover ratio. However, the Packers struggle on special teams and with penalties. We have the most penalties and second most penalty yards.

Last season when the team was racking up penalties and yards, I chalked it up to inexperience. But after 25 games, those excuses do not hold up. The coaches are accountable for bringing discipline to the team.

I could live with the penalties, but there are other indicators of poor coaching, too. For instance, on Nov. 8, the Packers faced off against the previously win-less Tampa Bay Buccaneers, and looked like a team that took the win for granted.

It is absolutely unacceptable to have a lack of intensity. The failure to wrap up on tackles, no sense of urgency as the game was slipping away, no game plan to rattle a quarterback making his first start…

That lack of effort and preparation has led me to believe that not only should Ted Thompson be fired for the lack of talent on the roster, but Mike McCarthy has to go for not getting enough out of the talent he has.

Much like he did last season, McCarthy made the same mistakes leading to the same results.

He had a chance to rattle the emotional Old Guy in the previous two games with his chief rival. Why would you not pressure a player who is known throughout his career for making poor decisions because he wants to make big plays and who really wanted to show his old team up?

Yet he and Dom Capers sent almost no blitzes at the Old Guy in either game. They followed that up by rarely blitzing the young and presumably emotional rookie in his first start—a player who was described as raw coming out of college.

Moreover, the Packers were running the ball better than they were passing, and Ryan Grant is a back whose yards per carry go up as the game goes along. Nevertheless, McCarthy abandoned the run altogether once the Bucs took the lead.

If last week’s well-designed game plan is an indication the coaching staff is getting a handle on their role, fine. But they may have waited too long. Should the Packers fail to finish with a winning record, the coaches deserve as much blame for not maximizing talent as management does for not getting enough of it.

I originally wrote this article for SportsScribes.net.

Packers-Cowboys Report Card

MJ Kasprzak — Tue, 17 Nov 2009 15:00:30 -0500

The Green Bay Packers bounced back from their shameful effort (or lack thereof) against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers with an inspired performance against Dallas on Sunday to jump back into the playoff race. This was easily the most impressive game of the year for the Pack, as they played well from top-to-bottom.

The fact that they did it against a division leader—the fourth they have played but first they have beaten—nullifies the help they got in having Atlanta, Philadelphia, and Chicago lose to put them in the hunt.

As of now, the Packers are the second wild card team, with a record overall and within the conference equal to the Altanta Falcons but better record against common opponents. (Note: Green Bay has had one more home game than the Falcons.)

Here are the grades for Sunday’s game by unit:

Quarterback: B

This was Rodgers’ third-worst game of the season statistically, as he compiled a passer rating of only 91.1. In this contest, he was a game manager: no interceptions or fumbles lost, completing 69.4 percent of passes (25-36), but averaged just 5.3 per attempt (189 yards). He was sacked four times, but one was for no loss and he did not hang onto the ball as long.

He added another touchdown (rushing) and completed passes to 10 different receivers (another thing the Old Guy has never done, even though he has always been exceptional at finding diverse targets). It is a mark of leadership to be able to change your style (in this case, big plays for dink-and-dunk), and even more of a mark to be able to find so many different teammates to get it done.

Running Back: C-

The backfield combined for 90 yards on 23 carries (3.9 average) with no scores or fumbles, nor any runs of over 13 yards. Ryan Grant led the way with 79 yards on 19 carries (4.2 average) against an above average rush defense (ranked 11th in both yards and yards per carry coming in).

Through the air, a foursome of backs caught seven passes for 22 yards (3.1 average), also without any scores, thanks to Ahman Green’s four-yard loss. Brandon Jackson had three catches for 15 yards to lead in both receptions and yards for the unit.

Receivers: C-

There was nothing spectacular about anyone’s performance in this unit. Donald Driver led in all categories except touchdowns: four catches, 50 yards, 12.5 average. Overall, this unit produced 18 catches, 167 yards (9.3 average), and one score (a two-yard toss to third tight end Spencer Havner) without their best receiving tight end in the lineup. They had only one dropped pass, but also did not get a lot of yards after the catch.

Offensive Line: D+

They were playing a pretty good front seven and a pretty good pass rush—Dallas was averaging 2.5 sacks per game coming in, ranking them in the top third of the league. While they gave up four sacks and none of them can be blamed on Rodgers proclivity for holding onto the ball, for this unit against this team, that is a pleasant surprise (How sad the bar is so low, but as is too often said, it is what it is). And they opened up just enough lanes for the team to generate 105 yards rushing, albeit on 28 carries.

Defensive Line: B

The Packers gave up just 61 yards in this game, and while it was on only 14 carries (4.4 average), it was to one of the league’s best trios of backs. They also did a great job occupying blockers to finally resurrect an anemic pass rush. They only generated six tackles and no assists, but particularly Johnny Jolly and Cullen Jenkins seemed to be disrupting every play.

Linebackers: A-

This was probably the corps’ best performance of the season, facing good backs and a Pro Bowl tight end in Jason Witten. In the passing game, Cowboys backs and tight ends got 10 receptions for just 73 yards and no scores. Meanwhile, the unit compiled 21 tackles, four assists, three sacks, and two fumble recoveries (both by rookie Clay Matthews).

Defensive Backs: A

Charles Woodson was a monster. Apparently, he is like fine wine—getting better with age—because all I heard about the entire off-season (albeit mostly from subjective Rodgers/Thompson haters and Vikings fans…yeah, you know who you are!) when I was trumpeting the virtues of this defense was how old our backs were. (For the record, Woodson is only 32.) He had eight tackles, one assist, one sack, two fumbles forced, and an interception.

The rest of the unit wasn’t bad, either: 11 tackles, two assists, and a sack. Overall, former first round pick Roy Williams had five catches, 105 yards, and a score. But that score came with a 17-point deficit and 38 seconds remaining. Moreover, on his longest reception, Woodson got one of his two fumbles forced and Matthews one of his recoveries.

They held dangerous downfield threat Austin Miles to just 20 yards on four catches, and Cowboys receivers totaled 14 catches for 178 yards (12.7 per catch). The only reason this is not an A-plus is they have to shoulder a little of the responsibility for the tight ends’ 53 yards and they did give up some yards along the way.

Special Teams: C+

Mason Crosby missed another field goal, but it was from 52 yards out and he hit from 48 to take a lead at the end of the first half. None of his three kicks went into the end zone, but the Cowboys averaged just 20 yards per return. (He hit on both extra points).

The punting game saw a lot of work and improvement: Jeremy Kapinos punted seven times for a 35-yard net average (Patrick Crayton averaged eight yards on five returns) and one kick inside the 20. Meanwhile, the Packers return game averaged 12 yards on two punt returns and got 24 on its only kick return, plus recovered the onside kick to seal the game.

Finally, the coaching staff came in with a gameplan. Rodgers’ seven-step drops were gone, and the ball was out quickly. The blitz was turned loose to rattle Tony Romo.

Now let’s see if this means the coaching staff is going to get the most out of talent on this roster—if so, this team should be playing meaningful games at least a few days into the new year.

Green Bay Packers Report Card: Grading the Team in Tampa

MJ Kasprzak — Sun, 15 Nov 2009 05:23:53 -0500

I originally wrote this article for SportsScribes.net .

Here is how each unit ranked last week and how that applies to this Sunday's matchup against the Dallas Cowboys:

Quarterback: D

Aaron Rodgers had easily his worst game of the season, and second worst of his career—at least in last season's game in Tampa Bay he had the excuse of an injured shoulder. It was the first game of the season in which he did not have a passer rating over 80, dropping him from first to fifth in the league.

For only the third time in 24 starts, he had more picks (three) than scores (two, although he did add a third rushing), more than doubling his season total. While he had 266 yards, he failed to complete half of his passes (17 of 35).

Of the Packers are to have any chance against the Dallas Cowboys, he has to have a huge bounce back game.

Running backs: B

Both Grant and Ahman Green had runs of 20-plus yards, and Grant got into the endzone. The unit provided 144 yards rushing on 29 carries for five yards per carry and three catches for 26 yards (8.7), for 170 total yards on 32 touches (5.3). There were no fumbles.

Green Bay will need to run the ball effectively against the 11th-ranked (both in yards per game and per carry) rush defense of the Cowboys in order to keep the pressure off Rodgers.

Receiving Corps: B-

The wide receivers did great, as third receiver James Jones led the way with four catches for 103 yards and a score. Donald Driver had four catches for 71 yards and a score, and Greg Jennings had five for 61.

But there was nothing from the tight end position—it is clear the team misses JerMichael Finley. Donald Lee had just one catch for five yards and Spencer Havner did not appear on the scoresheet.

Dallas is 20th in passing yards allowed and tied for 17th in yards per play. This is one area the Packers can exploit.

Offensive Line: F

What is left to say? Sure they did okay in opening holes for the running game, but this is still the worst unit in all of the NFL.

They allowed six sacks to a team that came in with 11 in seven games. It is the sixth time in eight games they have allowed four or more sacks and the fourth in which they allowed six or more.

Let me spell out just how much it bolsters a team to play against this line:

1) The Minnesota Vikings lead the league in sacks thanks to getting 14 of their 31 in the two games against Green Bay. That means they averaged fewer than three sacks a game against the rest of the league and seven against the Packers.

2) The Cincinnati Bengals had six sacks against Green Bay and have just 15 in their other seven games, an average of just over two per contest.

3) The Chicago Bears and Detroit Lions are also among the five of seven Packers opponents to garner at least twice as many sacks against Green Bay than they have averaged against the rest of the league.

And now this line has to face the pass rush of the Cowboys? They average 2.5 per game, more than any Packers opponent thus far has against teams not dressed in green and gold. The only question is whether Dallas can top the Vikings' week four total of eight sacks.

Defensive Line: B-

Tampa Bay had 25 rushes for 81 yards (3.2), helping the Packers maintain their ranking of third best in yards per carry allowed. At the same time, they managed just four tackles and two assists. They will need to continue their control of the line of scrimmage with Marion Barber, Felix Jones, and Deshard Choice coming to town.

Linebackers: F

They had 16 tackles, four assists, and one sack, led by AJ Hawk's six, one, and one respectively. That might not seem worthy of an F, but remember the line does all the work in a 3-4 so the linebackers can make the big plays.

In a game in which a rookie started at quarterback, you need to contain the dump off options and make him throw downfield under pressure. Instead, this unit that failed to pressure him or make any big plays also allowed seven catches for 111 yards and two scores to the tight ends and running backs.

If the Packers are going to have any chance against the Cowboys, they will need to put pressure on Tony Romo and get some plays out of this unit.

Defensive Backs: D+

This unit looked good on paper. They gave up one score and generated one pick. They contributed greatly to Josh Freeman's sub-50 percent completion rate, the fourth game in which they have accomplished that feat. Only seven passes were completed to wide receivers.

However, those catches amounted to 94 yards, a 13.4 average per catch, and Tampa was without its only real wide receiver threat, Antonio Bryant, injured. And they have to take some responsibility for Kellen Winslow's big day, too.

Finally, while they amassed 15 tackles, they missed a few by tackling high and not wrapping up. My high school coach would have had us doing grass drills for a good 30 minutes for that!

Dallas comes in with solid receivers in Roy Williams and Miles Austin, plus Patrick Crayton as a third option. If they can shut down Williams for the first half, he will shut himself down in the second and they can focus on Austin.

Special Teams: F

Mason Crosby did okay, hitting all four extra points (he did not attempt a field goal) and putting five of his six kickoffs in the endzone resulting in four touchbacks. But every other phase of this unit struggled—on the two kicks that were not touchbacks, the Packers allowed over a 50-yard average on returns.

Jeremy Kapinos had two punts inside the 20, but Clifton Smith averaged 13 yards per return. The Packers managed just four yards per punt return and, thanks to a Tramon Williams fumble that limited his return to two yards when the team really needed a big return to regain the lead and the momentum, the Packers averaged only about 16 yards per kick return.

Sunday is going to be a long day for Packers fans...Cowboys 27, Packers 16.

San Jose Sharks Learning to Be Less Pretty, More Gritty

MJ Kasprzak — Tue, 10 Nov 2009 15:27:04 -0500

The San Jose Sharks lost a shootout to host Detroit Red Wings to snap their six-game winning streak last week. They bounced back with a dominating 5-0 win over the defending champion Pittsburgh Penguins to finish the week 2-0-1.

The Sharks are 8-1-1 in their last 10 games (outscoring their foes 40-19) and 10-1-2 in their last 13. Seven of the last ten games the Sharks have played have been on the road, and they have been getting it done without Joe Pavelski (who returned against Pittsburgh), Rob Blake, Devin Setoguchi, Douglas Murray, and Torrey Mitchell at times during the stretch.

Losing to Detroit in a shootout was actually impressive considering they had played to a shootout against a physical Columbus Blue Jackets the night before. Could we just once get to go into Joe Louis Arena without having travelled from Columbus the night before?

The Sharks also have been winning in different ways. Unlike last season, they have won being out-shot, out-hit, or when they spend more time in the penalty box. At times, they are even blocking more shots than their opponents this season.

In other words, this team is fighting through. In Coach Todd McLellan's own words, they are learning to be "less pretty and more gritty." This is what a team needs to be able to do come playoff time, when every inch of ice is fought over in ways it is not in the regular season, and when the injury list is as long as the list of healthy players.

They are getting goals from the third and fourth lines that I had seen as an Achilles' Heel at the outset of the season. In 18 games so far, 18 different Sharks have scored goals; a dozen have scored more than one and two have scored more than 10. Two dozen players have points so far, and five different Sharks are averaging a point a game.

The one thing the Sharks need to work on is puck control. They have more giveaways and fewer takeaways than their opponents in nearly every game.

This does not translate well into the post-season, although the Sharks will tend to have this problem because they are a puck possession team—they lead the league in faceoffs by almost four percent over the next best team. Turnover problems also should clear up when the roster is not in constant flux due to injuries.

San Jose hosts Nashville tonight at 7:30pm PST before playing six of their next nine on the road. That will bring them to 18 road games vs. just 10 home games at the conclusion of November.

This is another key difference from last season, when the Sharks appeared to get fat off home ice early in the season and tire late when they had to play so many on the road. This time, we should have a better idea of the real talent level of the Sharks by the trade deadline than we did last season, and more room to make needed moves.

Green Bay Packers' Playoff Chances Already Ended Last Week

MJ Kasprzak — Sun, 08 Nov 2009 22:37:23 -0500

Last Sunday, the Minnesota Vikings came into Lambeau Field and beat the host Green Bay Packers 38-26. In the process, they made a statement: “We are the better team.”

Packers fans made a statement, too, booing their former signal caller when he took the field and, for a while at least, when he touched the ball. Apparently, he was wrong to exclaim that “real Packers fans would understand” his joining the Vikings.

Or maybe the stadium was filled with others who, like me, are not "real fans" in The Traitor’s eyes because our world does not center around him like his does.

I have lived and died every fall Sunday with the Green Bay Packers for over three decades, which is precisely why his actions are unforgiveable—I was a fan of this team before he came along, and I remain a fan after he has left.

(Okay, one more time: you are either a Packers fan or a Traitor fan. You can still like him and be a real fan. You can even think it is okay for him to play in Minnesota—unlike his world, in mine there is room for someone who disagrees with me. But if you rooted for him to win on Sunday, I hope there is no room on our bandwagon if Rodgers is ever surrounded with enough talent to put up the titles commiserate with his performance.)

The Traitor’s reaction once the game was in hand—as though he had won a playoff game— also made a statement: This game was personal for him. In my mind, this confirmed that his choice to go to Minnesota, the only team he admitted he even considered, was motivated by revenge as much as a chance to win a title.

Then again, for all intents and purposes, the victory did secure the division for the Vikings. The Chicago Bears, with two games left against the Vikings and two-and-a-half games back, still could certainly catch Minnesota.

But the Packers were considered the Vikings' chief contender coming into the season because of the talent at so many positions. Green Bay has one of the top four units in the receiving corps and defensive secondary as well as a quarterback in the top quarter of the league, similar to the Bears.

The Packers also have owned the division, winning it for seven of 14 seasons before their injury-plagued 6-10 2008 campaign. Even that year, only Green Bay won the head-to-heads with every other team in the division, getting two of its six wins over division rivals that finished with a winning record.

Now Green Bay’s chance at an NFC North title is a pipe dream only the most ridiculous optimist could foresee. The Packers are as far back as the Bears and cannot win any tiebreak unless there is a three-way tie.

Moreover, Green Bay still has the toughest part of the schedule coming after Thanksgiving: vs. Baltimore, at Chicago, at Pittsburgh, vs. Seattle, and at Arizona. There are likely three more losses in there, plus a tough game on Nov. 15 against the Cowboys.

In other words, even before today's loss, a 9-7 finish was in the cards.

Even if the Packers somehow shore up their offensive line and manage to go 10-6, it is unlikely the Vikings will win just three more games, and even more unlikely the Bears also end at 10-6 by both winning against Minnesota and losing the game at home against the Packers, forcing a three-way tie.

The Falcons and Saints are virtually locks to make the playoffs, and three teams in the NFC East (Philadelphia, New York, and Dallas) will be fighting for two spots. Thus, the second-place team in the North will see its season end Jan. 3.

In other words, I will still have to hear all the Rodgers-bashers say he has still not led us to the playoffs, totally ignoring that wins and losses are not all on the quarterback.

It’s the same argument I always hated for everyone who made Joe Montana the undisputed greatest quarterback of all-time, even though I think it’s very disputable.

Thank you, Ted Thompson, for failing to put this team in a position to win and adding fuel to this controversy that you could have avoided in the first place. If we don't win half of our remaining games, I will go from calling for your job to calling for a mob.

Packers-Vikings: Minnesota Dominates

MJ Kasprzak — Sat, 07 Nov 2009 02:23:35 -0500

Before assessing what Sunday's 38-26 loss to the Minnesota Vikings actually means to the Green Bay Packers (the subject of my next article—look for it Sunday morning), I want to provide the report card on each unit:

Quarterback: B+

Aaron Rodgers had a passer rating over 100 for the fifth consecutive week, raising his season rating to 110.4. He now has 14 TDs and just two picks, plus one rushing TD and two fumbles lost for a 15:4 touchdown to turnover ratio. All of these stats are better than The Traitor has ever had.

In this game, he was 26-41 (.634) for 287 yards, three scores, and no turnovers despite being under constant pressure that led to six Viking sacks, giving them 14 in the two games between the rivals.

While these stats are worthy of an A grade, two of the sacks he took could have been avoided—knowing the lack of pass protection, Rodgers has to get an internal clock and learn to get rid of the ball sooner to become an elite quarterback.

Running Back: D

Granted, the Packers were up against the defense that, while coming in only tenth against the run, has been the league’s best in this category in each of the past three seasons.

But the three running backs accounted for just 38 yards on 14 carries (2.7 average), failing to allow coach Mike McCarthy to get some pass-rush relief for his beleaguered signal-caller. While they did catch seven passes for 59 yards, there were no scores out of this unit.

Receiving Corps: B

This unit accounted for 20 catches, 231 yards, and three scores. Spencer Havner stepped into the second-tight end role and had 16- and five-yard touchdowns on both of his catches, and Greg Jennings looked like a Pro Bowler again with seven catches for 81 yards.

However, while I do not remember a single drop, the yards per catch was low (11.5) because there was only one reception that went for over 30 yards. It is a fallacy that you cannot get deep if there is no time to pass, as most long pass plays are on rather direct routes or runs after the catch.

Offensive Line: F

After a brief respite from the failing grade, the line has returned. They one again opened no significant running lanes and did not give Rodgers enough time to go through his progressions on pass plays.

Defensive Line: A-

The Packers will be the only team to hold Adrian Peterson under 100 yards rushing twice this season—he finished with a solid 97 yards on 25 carries (3.9 average) and one TD, giving him just 152 on 50 carries (3.0) for the two games combined.

Overall, the Vikings ran 31 times to get their 111 yards (3.6 average), and the line deserves most of the credit for this, even with a pedestrian eight tackles, four assists, and one fumble recovered.

This shows that the game plan for McCarthy and defensive coordinator Dom Capers was not personal regarding The Traitor. They focused on Minnesota’s best player to the expense of allowing No. 4 to be successful.

Linebackers: D-

This unit finally looked like the one that would struggle to adapt to the 3-4. Based on their performance in five of the seven weeks so far, I do not think it is the new system that accounts for this performance, but rather the game plans and talent levels of the two teams.

Packer linebackers had 20 tackles and six assists, but no big plays—not one sack, interception, or fumble recovered. Moreover, they surrendered five catches for 73 yards and two scores to Vikings running backs and tight ends.

Defensive Backs: B+

Despite no pass rush and no help covering backs and tight ends, The Traitor completed just 60.7 percent of passes and had only 12 completions for 185 yards (a somewhat hefty 15.4 average) go to wide receivers, even if you include Percy Harvin in that group (he plays wide receiver and running back).

They did give up two scores, but also recovered a fumble. The unit accounted for 14 tackles and three assists.

Special Teams: D

The Vikings return game did a lot of damage—they had a 20-yard punt return and Harvin averaged about 35 yards on five kick returns. Jeremy Kapinos still managed a 35.8-yard net average on five punts, with one inside the 20, but Mason Crosby did not help the cause by failing to get one kick in the end zone (and missing a field goal attempt, albeit one beyond 50 yards).

The Packers got eight yards on their one punt return, and averaged only about 20 yards on their seven kick returns.

The most disappointing thing about the loss was the game plan and execution. There were not enough max protect schemes, not enough blitzing to force quick decisions that would play upon the emotions running through a gambling opposing quarterback, and not enough taking advantage of early successes that could have put mental pressure on him to make big plays.

The only time this game was in doubt was after the Vikings had surrendered 17 of the 21 point second half cushion they had established.

Once the defense quickly yielded a big play to let the Vikings widen that margin, there was no chance that poor decisions would hand the game to the Packers.

San Jose Sharks Coast To a Five-Game Winning Streak

MJ Kasprzak — Mon, 02 Nov 2009 03:26:58 -0500

The San Jose Sharks are back on the road after a brief two-game homestand.

Not that it matters—they just keep winning. After a slow start to the season (3-3-0-1), they are red hot, winning five in a row and seven of eight and moving up to the second-best record in the Western Conference.

They are also tied for the second most wins on the road, thanks in part to a scheduling quirk that has them playing twice as many games to this point away from the Shark Tank as they have played in it.

For the remainder of November, they have only five more games at home and eight on the road.

The Sharks also continue to get contributions from players who do not figure to get much action when the games really matter. Logan Couture had his first point of his NHL career, and players like Ryan Vesce and Jody Shelley have multiple assists.

In Sunday's game, Douglas Murray and Kent Huskins got their first goals of the season. On Friday, Ryan Clowe and Jamie McGinn got theirs. Earlier in the week, it was Manny Malhotra netting his first two, and Jed Ortmeyer added his third.

At the same time, the Sharks top players are also producing:

Patrick Marleau has 15 points in an eight-game point streak, including six goals. He is now tied for second in the league in points with 21 and in goals with 11.
Dany Heatley is tied for sixth in goals with nine and 10th in points at 16.
Joe Thornton leads the league with 16 assists and is tied for fifth with 19 points.
Dan Boyle is tied for seventh with 11 assists, second among defencemen.

When the Sharks had injuries last spring, the offence floundered. This year they have shown more adaptability during this stretch without Joe Pavelski and Torrey Mitchell.

Finding different ways to win was something they never learned last season while they were dominating opponents en route to the President's Trophy.

In at least one of the last three games, they have been both on the winning and losing end of shots on goal, hits, and blocked shots.

Overall, they held a 101-80 edge in shots and a 69-66 edge in hits.

They also won all three contests in the faceoff circle, with between 58 and 61.9 percent of faceoffs won; they lead the league in faceoff winning percentage.

But the strength of the Sharks during this run has been in net. Evgeni Nabokov has allowed just one goal in each of his last three starts, including one that went through overtime and featured him stoning five of the six Kings faced in a shootout.

Because of this, he has raised his save percentage to .915 for the season and lowered his goals-against average to 2.48.

However, there are a couple statistics they are going to need to bolster to win consistently: San Jose had only 37 blocked shots to 58 for their opponents, and they lost in both giveaways (29-14 overall) and takeaways (15-27 overall) in all three games.

While a large factor in both of those stats is the superior time on attack, there is no doubt other teams are putting more effort into blocking shots and doing a better job taking care of the puck.

San Jose also has only scored first in four of 15 games this season, and it is never a good idea to play from behind consistently.

This problem is puzzling considering their fifth-ranked offence (3.40 GSA) and seventh-ranked defence (2.47 GAA). They also possess top-tier special teams—a sixth-ranked power play (25 percent efficiency) and penalty kill (85 percent).

The Sharks next chance to show improvement in those areas comes at Columbus Wednesday at 4 p.m. PST. San Jose beat Columbus in the fourth game of the season 6-3 at the Shark Tank.

NFL Game of the Week: Packers-Vikings Rematch

MJ Kasprzak — Sun, 01 Nov 2009 03:23:03 -0500

At 1:15pm PST (that's right—daylight savings is over, and it's time to change your clocks back to real time!), the second-place Green Bay Packers host the division-leading Minnesota Vikings.

It is a rematch of the Week Four matchup won by the Vikings, 30-23. And I think I have heard something about a future Hall of Fame traitor's return...

(Incidentally, for all of you still holding the ridiculous notion that The Traitor did not go to the Vikings to stick it to the Packers—catching us fans who love(d) him in the crossfire—read the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel piece from Oct. 31. In it, they examine his changing of a late third-down play from a clock-managing run to a deep pass to rub it in.)

But then, you have already ignored previous evidence of the team's efforts to talk him out of retirement, his declaration to Peter King that he was not forced out when he announced his retirement, reports that he fed an opponent inside information to help them still lose to the Packers—and his claim that even if he did, it's not against the rules, all but an admission he did do it—and how about his own admission that he did want to go to Minnesota last season out of revenge! So what's one more piece of evidence to refute your irrational position?

For me, this is about two rivals that hate each other and are the top contenders for the division title. I could care less about the quarterback matchup (And no, I am not one of those who says "could care less" when he means "couldn't care less"...I am acknowledging that it does matter to me, since denial of that would be as irrational in light of the above rant as the position that rant was directed toward).

So how do the teams match up? Let's first examine the injuries: CB Antoine Winfield will miss the game for the Vikings, while FB Korey Hall and WR Jordy Nelson will for the Packers.

TE JerMichael Finley is listed as doubtful for Green Bay, but I expect everyone else to play—several players have missed practice time for both teams and are listed as questionable or better, but they are not going to miss this key matchup.

Given the personnel losses, here is how the units compare:

Packers passing attack vs. Vikings pass defense: advantage, Green Bay

The loss of the Vikings best corner means more than the loss of the fourth wide receiver and platooning tight end combined, and the Packers had this matchup won with both teams healthy.

The Packers have the 10th-best passing attack in the league in yards per game (258.3) while the Vikings have the 20th-ranked pass defense (ironically, giving up less than the Packers attain, at 234.6).

Green Bay's offensive line—clearly its Achilles heel—is bolstered by the return of the tackles who have been their bookends over the past eight seasons, and the young players are improving.

And while the Vikings have played with a lead, leading to them facing more passes, the Packers have been in the lead almost as much, leading to running out the clock late.

Packers rushing attack vs. Vikings rush defense: advantage, Minnesota

On paper, these two teams seem close—Green Bay is ranked 13th (118/game) and the Vikings 10th (95.4), with both teams numbers being artificially high because of playing with leads. However, anyone who has been following the teams knows better.

In recent years, the Packers ground game has been inconsistent and the Vikings have been dominant. While it is fair to think this deep into the season that paradigm is shifting, it is foolish to think it has shifted as much as the stats indicate.

Vikings passing attack vs. Packers pass defense: advantage, Green Bay

Minnesota has the league's 13th-ranked passing attack (233.7) while Green Bay has the fourth-best pass defense (174). Both are equally affected by their scores coming in, but Green Bay is also among the league leaders in interceptions and takeaways, while Minnesota is only above average in preventing them.

The only shortcoming the Packers have here is the pass rush (supposedly improved in a 3-4), but it has not stopped them from attaining elite status.

Vikings rushing attack vs. Packers rush defense: advantage, Minnesota

Here again reason must win over statistics. Both teams rank 12th in their respective categories (97.5 yielded by Green Bay and 119.9 gained by Minnesota), and both teams are helped by the scores their opponents have faced.

But come on, the Vikings have Adrian Peterson and Chester Taylor. I know the Packers held Peterson to 55 yards on 25 carries in the first contest, but that will not happen again.

Special Teams: even

Minnesota has a slightly more reliable kicker and punter, but horrible coverage units. They may have better return units, but not enough to offset the coverage, or Mason Crosby's substantial superiority on kickoffs.

Intangibles: huge advantage, Green Bay

Almost every one of these lines up in the Packers favour outside of penalties—the Packers are second worst in the league with 429 yards and the Vikings (despite one more game) are sixth-best with 280.

Minnesota has a slight edge in time of possession and third-down conversion comparison (offense vs. defense), but not enough to tip the scales.

There is the idea that the Packers are under more pressure—if Green Bay loses, they fall 2.5 games back and the Vikings have the tie-breaker. But that also gives them more urgency, so that is one of those half-full/half-empty things.

Moreover, the Traitor will counter any perceived advantage by putting pressure on himself to win this one, especially when he resents the plethora of boos he will receive.

He has a long history of trying to win the big games on each play, actually losing them in the process.

He will scrap the gameplan and throw deep on a regular basis, not a good idea with the matchup of his receivers against the best secondary in the world.

Here are the other intangibles in Green Bay's favour (most admittedly minor):

A homefield advantage not just generated by the most fervent fans in the league, but a surface that will slow down the Vikings attack.
The Packers have a turnover ratio of +10—nearly +2 per game—while the Vikings have just a +7—exactly +1 per game.
Mike McCarthy is 5-2 against Brad Childress, with the two losses being by seven and one point.
The only time since 1998 in which the Vikings have swept the season series was 2005.
The two teams have played almost identical schedules (both weak, with opponents who have lost at least twice as many as they have won), but the Packers have fared better vs. two of the three opponents.
Green Bay's scoring margin overall is 161-96 (+10.8/game), while Minnesota's is 205-148 (+8.1/game).
Momentum: Green Bay has won two games handily in the last two weeks, while Minnesota has narrowly won one thanks to a missed field goal and lost another. While there is no doubt the Vikings played better competition, the two games have allowed the Packers to work on their flaws and see first-hand ways to exploit Minnesota's shortcomings.

When you factor in that the Vikings have no virtually no statistical edge in the two categories in which they were given their advantages in the above assessment, while the Packers' edges are concrete, and this one is clearly in Green Bay's favour. That is why every analyst on NHL.com picked Green Bay, and it is why I am, too...

Prediction: Packers 31, Vikings 27

NFL: Packers-Browns Game Recap

MJ Kasprzak — Fri, 30 Oct 2009 03:52:52 -0400

Last Sunday, the Green Bay Packers put on their most impressive performance of the season, dominating the Cleveland Browns 31-3. It was a great tune-up for the upcoming rematch between the top two teams in the division.

The Packers have outperformed every division rival against common opponents:

Minnesota only beat the Browns by 14, the Lions by 14 (albeit on the road rather than at home where the Packers' matchup was), and St. Louis by 28—the only single performance in which a rival has outperformed Green Bay—for a combined score of 99-43. Green Bay won by 28, 26, and 19 for a combined score of 93-20.
Chicago and Green Bay both beat the Lions and lost to the Bengals, but the Bears won by 24 and lost by 35, whereas the Packers won by 26 and lost by seven.

Here is how each of the Packers units graded out:

Quarterback: A+

Aaron Rodgers came close to the best possible passer rating of 159.3, finishing 155.5. (For the record, The Traitor's best performance was in 1995 against the Bears, with a 147.2 rating. To be fair, it was a stretch in which he finished three games with a 133.6-plus rating and threw 11 TDs and no picks.) Rodgers was 15-for-20 for 246 yards, three scores and no picks. He also ran four times for 23 yards.

Running Backs: B+

Ryan Grant finally got a chance to show what he could do, running 27 times for 148 yards (5.5 average) with a long of 37 yards and a touchdown. What brings this grade down is that Brandon Jackson and John Kuhn combined for 31 yards on 10 carries, and the backfield had just three yards on two catches.

Receivers: A

This unit was not called on much, but delivered 13 catches for 243 yards (18.7 average) and three scores. Donald Driver once again led the way with 84 receiving yards, and six players either had more than ten yards or a score.

Offensive Line: B+

This was the highest grade I felt I could give a unit that faced the Cleveland defense, which came in worst in the league. But they did everything they were asked to do, yielding no sacks, keeping Rodgers from being hurried, and opening holes for Grant.

Defensive Line: A-

This was a good performance even considering the competition. They made seven tackles and had two assists, generated 1.5 sacks and forced a fumble, and held the Browns rushing attack (such that it is) to just 58 yards on 21 carries (2.8 average).

Linebackers: B+

Not much in the way of big plays (a half-sack and a recovered fumble), but they made a lot of tackles—20 tackles and six assists.

Defensive Backfield: B+

Yes, Derrick Anderson was 12-for-29 for 99 yards and a pick (the second week in a row the Packers gave up fewer than 100 yards passing), but some of that was him misfiring. The secondary generated eight tackles and two assists to go with Charles Woodson's pick.

Special Teams: D

While no one made any bad plays, the Packers were outperformed in every phase of special teams. They had an 18-yard average on kick returns vs. 34 yielded, and two vs. nine on punts, leading to a 29-net vs. 44.8. Billy Cundiff hit his only field goal while Mason Crosby was 1-for-2, although three of his six kickoffs went into the end zone, including two touchbacks.

San Jose Sharks Complete East Coast Road Trip 4-2

MJ Kasprzak — Mon, 26 Oct 2009 04:27:20 -0400

The San Jose Sharks embarked on a six-game, Eastern Conference road trip just under two weeks ago. They played three games in the first nine days before the final three games in four days tested their physical and mental stamina.

Considering the competition, finishing 4-2 was impressive. The trip included games against two of the top six teams in the league (the Washington Capitals and New York Rangers) and two more against teams currently in the playoff picture according to point percentage (the Philadelphia Flyers and Atlanta Thrashers).

Factor in missing players and the results are all the more cause for optimism. Coach Todd McLellan had to juggle lines because he was missing Joe Pavelski and Torrey Mitchell for all six games, Ryan Vesce and Devin Setoguchi vs. Philadelphia, and Douglas Murray vs. Washington.

Overall, the Sharks were outshot 174-186 but outscored their opponents 22-17. In the four games they were outshot, they finished 3-1 (losing only to Washington). They split the two games in which they outshot their foes, beating the Rangers but losing to Tampa Bay.

Moreover, McLellan finally showed a bit of faith in backup goalie Thomas Greiss, who rewarded that faith with a 37-save effort (.974 percentage), easily the best of the trip. He made an incredible save of a Claude Giroux shot and turned away a sequence of three shots that would have enabled the Flyers to enter the second period with a lead.

His performance was crucial because of the inconsistency of Evgeni Nabokov—he let in a goal he should not have against the Capitals and two more against the Lightning. Other than the game against the New York Islanders (the league's fifth-worst offense), he did not finish a single performance with a .900 save percentage, although a good deal of that can be placed on defensive miscues.

But the defence in front of Greiss, while allowing 38 shots, was better. San Jose showed discipline with the puck and grit in the offensive end, with their checking lines netting three of the four goals (two by Manny Malhotra). Even sniper Dany Heatley's power play goal came when he took two whacks at a rebound from behind the net.

Because of the success of this trip, the Sharks now have the seventh-best point percentage in the West even though they have played two more road games than any other team in the conference.

They are 5-4 overall away from the Shark Tank and 2-0-1 in it. They have just two games at home before starting November with three more games in the Eastern Time Zone (Carolina, Columbus, and Detroit).

NFL: Packers-Lions Preview

MJ Kasprzak — Sun, 18 Oct 2009 06:13:43 -0400

Green Bay will be visited by the Lions Sunday at 10 a.m. PDT. On the surface, this appears to be an easy victory for the Packers for many reasons:

The Lions' last trip to Lambeau was their record-setting 16th loss, ensuring they would become the league's worst-ever team on record.
Green Bay is 15-2 in the last 17 meetings between the teams, and has not lost a home game since 1991.
Green Bay is coming off a bye week, giving them a huge advantage. (Why does the league match teams that have not had a bye with ones that have?)
The Packers are 2-2 with their only losses being to an unbeaten team and one with one loss...to an unbeaten team. Meanwhile, the Lions are 1-4.
Detroit is unsettled at the most key position, quarterback—either they will play an injured rookie or a veteran who has never been the same since he suffered a serious injury four years ago. Green Bay, on the other hand, boasts the eighth-rated passer in the league.

I could go on, but those are the highlights. So why is there fear in my eyes? (You can't see them, but trust me, it's there!)

Well, part of it is sheer paranoia: The last thing I need after dealing with all the apologists of the former quarterback henceforth known as The Traitor is another reason to diss Rodgers before the inevitable late-season collapse of that player allows me to throw it in their face.

But part of it is legit. For one thing, the Lions are much-improved despite their record, and infinitely according to it. And the Packers offensive line is, well, offensive: 20 sacks in four games, most in the league.

To add injury to insult, Mark Tauscher is not ready to return, Jason Spitz and Scott Wells are questionable, and Chad Clifton and Daryn Colledge are probable.

If you are scoring at home, that covers all five positions wherein the best player for the position is either out or will not be at his best.

Only Tauscher started off the season with an injury, and the line gave up five sacks in the first game when the other four were healthy.

Here is how the teams match-up:

Packers pass offense vs. Lions pass defense: advantage, Green Bay

Despite the sacks yielded, Green Bay has the 12th-ranked passing offense at 241 yards per game. The quarterback and receiving corps are near-elite status, easily ranking in the top quarter of the NFL.

The Lions, meanwhile, have generated only ten sacks and rank 27th in the league in yielding about 245 yards per game.

Packers rush offense vs. Lions rush defense: even

Detroit gives up 113 yards per game, putting them 21st in the NFL. The Packers gain almost 100 yards per game, ranking 22nd.

Both teams' stats are hurt by frequency of rush attempts—Green Bay rarely ran the ball against Cincinnati or Minnesota, and the Lions have faced a number of additional carries late in games as teams were trying to milk the clock.

Lions pass offense vs. Packers pass defense: advantage, Green Bay

Detroit generates almost 220 yards through the air per game so far, getting them barely into the top half of the league (16th) despite the score necessitating more passing than usual.

Meanwhile, Green Bay gives up about 223 yards per game, a mediocre ranking of 17th that would seem to suggest the teams are even.

However, they generate turnovers as well as anyone in the game (most of which come in the passing game), and they are more likely than any team to turn those into defensive scores: Last year, the defense led the league in scoring, and this year it has spearheaded the team to the top of the league in turnover ratio and generated two scores already.

Meanwhile, Detroit is 24th in turnover ratio and likely starting an injured rookie—they might do well to go with Culpepper, who has 14 TDs since his last pick against the Packers.

Making matters worse, their best player, Calvin Johnson, is questionable with a knee injury.

Lions rush offense vs. Packers rush defense: even

The Packers have faced excellent backs so far—Cedric Benson, Adrian Peterson, and Stephen Jackson are second, third, and fifth in the league in rushing, and Matt Forte is no slouch, either (17th in the league, due in part to the Bears' bye week).

Yet Green Bay fared well against both Peterson and Forte, holding each to just 55 yards on 25 carries.

Nevertheless, they rank just 20th at 112.2 allowed per game. Detroit has averaged 103.2 per contest (19th in the league) despite having to lean more on passing late in games.

Special Teams: slight advantage, Detroit

The Lions have one of the best kickers in the history of the game in Jason Hanson, who has missed only one field goal (in the 40-49 range). Meanwhile, Mason Crosby has missed one in that range, one in the 50-plus range, and an extra point. Both kickers are good on kickoffs.

Punting is also an advantage for the Lions, if only because of coverage—Jeremy Kapinos has an average that is 3.5 yards superior, but the Lions punt coverage allows 6.5 fewer yards per return.

Kick returns and coverage does heavily favour the Packers, however, as they average 6.7 more yards per return than their opponents while the Lions average seven fewer.

Intangibles: advantage, Green Bay

The Packers do have more pressure on them in this game, but it is because the Lions have lower expectations.

That may manifest itself in not believing you will win as well as not knowing how to finish and not having as much drive.

The Packers are at home, have a chance to reaffirm they will contend, and have the Lions' number.

Prediction: Green Bay 31, Detroit 16

Ted Thompson Must Be Held to a Higher Standard

MJ Kasprzak — Wed, 14 Oct 2009 14:17:23 -0400

If things do not change, Ted Thompson should be on his way out the door.

I don't know about you, but they expect me to perform my job well in order to keep it. We cannot accept lower than that from the GM of the greatest franchise in sports.

And no, I am not one of those who blames Thompson for the departure of a petty prima donna who quit on us and then decided to be spiteful to all of us in his quest to get back at Thompson for not scrapping the future to take him back. Not that Teddy could not have handled it better, but he obviously made the right choice.

I am not even going to blame the man for not adding that one extra player to our roster in 2007 who could have made that one extra play that gets us into the Super Bowl, possibly avoiding the divorce if we win it. Did any reasonable person really expect the team to go 13-3 before that season started? Then how could TT be expected to know we were ahead of schedule on our rebuild?

But I do blame him for many other things, the following being chief among them:

1. Making no significant free agent moves since signing Charles Woodson in 2006. The following first-tier players off the top of my head were available at positions of need this year, with plenty of money to sign two of them: Levi Jones, Orlando Pace, Bart Scott, Greg Ellis, Cris Canty, and Igor Olshansky.

2. Not even signing second-tier free agents at positions of need, such as Grady Jackson (DT), when the team is obviously close to contention.

3. Supposedly the reason he is carrying tens of millions in cap space is to re-sign his own guys, so why are there so many Packers whose contracts are up at the end of this season?

4. Not protecting his franchise quarterback-signing Mark Tauscher is a step in the right direction, but this is still the worst offensive line in the NFL.

5. Trading away Cory Williams last season when we ended up being desperately thin at defensive tackle.

6. Dumping a good punter who was well-rounded (he could tackle, make plays on fakes, and hold on kicks) and getting an awful replacement—we still have no one at Ryan's calibre despite trying three punters out since.

7. Some poor draft picks, particularly players taken too high or at positions that are not of need—see below.

Let's examine just the biggest draft mistakes I can recall of the top of my head:

In 2008, we already had a deep and talented receiving corps but needed defensive back help coming into the 2008 draft, but TT trades down to take Jordy Nelson.
2008: Pat Lee was supposed to step into the backfield immediately as a nickel or dime back, and has yet to make any impact on the team—largely because of injuries, a theme on this list.
2007: James Jones is projected to be no higher than a fifth-round pick by any publication I saw, but Thompson takes him in the third round, thereby passing up on 64 players who might have helped the team more than those he drafted post-Jones.
2007: Justin Freakin' Harrell was projected as a late first-round pick and had a history of some injury problems. Not surprisingly, he has played in just 13 games in his two-plus seasons, has 28 career tackles, and is currently on injured reserve.

Lest you think these are indicative of a terrible drafter, 15 of his 23 draft picks from 2006 and 2007 are still on the team. Four players drafted four years ago are also still here, and every player from 2008 and 2009. Here some of Ted's biggest successes by round:

Aaron Rodgers—'nuff said
Nick Collins and Greg Jennings are Pro Bowl players
JerMichael Finley looks like the team's tight end of the future
Brady Poppinga, a starter for most of his career
There is no standout from this round (or the seventh)
Johnny Jolly, the Packers best defensive lineman so far this season

That is a fair amount of talent from the bottom half of the draft—there are six starters and three other significant players taken on Day Two. Even among the first two rounds, there is a lot of talent—seven of Thompson's 10 picks in these two rounds prior to this spring are starters, and only one (Terrence Murphy, WR, 2005 second-round pick) is not on the team.

But the bottom line is results. 2005 (4-12) can hardly be blamed on Thompson, since it was Mike Sherman's horrible drafting and the team's aging roster (leading to injuries) that resulted in that disaster. In 2006, he did a great job rebuilding the team quickly (8-8), and in 2007 earned NFL Executive of the Year by a vote of his peers for the Packers' surprising 13-3 season.

Last season, however, the Packers fell to 6-10, dropping Thompson's record as GM back under .500 making him just 27-21 in the post-Sherman era. While injuries plagued the team, part of the responsibility for that has to fall on the team's GM, the authority in everything from the players taken who may be injury-prone, to the coaching staff that exposes or fails to condition players, to the grounds crew who might have poor field condition.

Ever wonder why the team has had so many more injuries than other teams over the past two seasons? Ever notice that they happen more often at home?

This season, the Packers have only two injuries in their two road games but five in two home games. I never assume anything is coincidence, and neither should Thompson.

The Packers are more woven into the fabric of their society than any other NFL team, and literally owned by fans. (And by literally, I do not mean a more-emphasized figuratively, like when Ron Jaworski said, "Peyton Manning is literally on fire" so far this season. I literally mean literally!) If the fans start calling for more accountability from Thompson, his job will be on the line.

Ted, you made your bed, now you have to lie in it. If this team does not finish over .500, you should join the unemployment line that so many of your fans are in.

Next season, you have to spend some of that cash to get us to the playoffs, or suffer the same fate. Unless you wanna roll the dice that you can win on a budget again—it's your butt, so it's your call.

I originally wrote this article for Sports Scribes.

Evgeni Nabokov Shows Improvement, but Sharks Still Have Their Share of Troubles

MJ Kasprzak — Tue, 13 Oct 2009 15:52:42 -0400

In my last Sharks article, I lamented the play of the Sharks on the back end. This was for good reason: Through four games, San Jose had given up 13 goals had a composite save percentage of .863.

In the last two games, the team has allowed just two goals in 125 minutes of skating, and Evgeni Nabokov has a save percentage of .971. This raises his season percentage over .900 and drops the team's goals-against-average to 2.83, just under the midpoint of the league (16th).

Too bad the Sharks have been outshot in both games—not the style this team claims is the path to success, but perhaps it is: Anaheim was outshot by 18 twice and five twice in last year's four playoff victories over the Sharks.

It's not about how many shots; it's about how many good shots. And it's not about offence; it's about defence.

The game against Minnesota was one of the more impressive displays of hustle by the Sharks since last season's All-Star break. They back- and fore-checked (22-11 edge in hits, 9-6 edge in takeaways), fought for loose pucks (36-26 edge in faceoffs), and blocked shots (17-14 edge)—and many of these efforts did not even appear in the stat sheet.

However, San Jose is still experiencing its share of troubles. In four of its six games, the team has entered the first intermission trailing. Against the Coyotes, the Sharks were dominated for the second period and failed to score through 65 minutes.

In other words, the consistency is not there in any phase of the game: offence, defence, or goaltending. But it is still early in the season and there are new faces in the lineup, so this is not unexpected.

Two familiar faces are set to return as early as next week. Second- and third-line centres Joe Pavelski and Torrey Mitchell should both be in the lineup before month's end, and both are key members of a penalty kill that without them is still ranked ninth in the league.

One of the reasons the Sharks have been able to endure the loss of both players is their depth down the middle. Newcomers Manny Malhotra and Scott Nichol give the Sharks two good checking-line centres, and Patrick Marleau has shifted from the wing to centre to fill in for Pavs.

Still, only two of the Sharks' 20 goals have been scored by players not in the first two lines/pairs, and seven of those goals have come from the power play. Dany Heatley and Patrick Marleau have as many goals as the rest of the team, and Devin Setoguchi has four of the remaining 10.

Once Pavelski and Mitchell are back (and one has to think that after missing every regular season game so far for two years, Mitchell cannot be counted on to remain healthy), this has to change. Scoring when it counts—the playoffs—requires balance: Just ask Heatley how easy it is for a good defence to shut one line down in the playoffs.

Last year at this time, the team was dominating and we were all wishing the games mattered. This year, we can be glad they don't count yet, as the team can establish some good work habits battling for wins in the six months they have left before they do.

Packers-Vikings: Assessing and Dissecting the Packers' Performance

MJ Kasprzak — Sun, 11 Oct 2009 06:07:14 -0400

In my preview of this game, I talked about how the media was focusing on the matchup between The Traitor and The Understudy. Meanwhile, the real matchup was the Packers sorry offensive line and the Vikings elite defensive line.

I was half-wrong—both were the story.

Aaron Rodgers and The Traitor dueled it out, with both registering passer rating well over 100. Rodgers had the lower percentage (.703 vs. .774) and just two scores to counter his first two turnovers of the season; The Traitor had three TDs and no picks. This led to a lower rating, but he also threw for 113 more yards in just six more attempts.

However, the Packers let him get sacked an astounding eight times for 42 yards. For the second year in a row, Rodgers was sacked for a safety in Minnesota.

Jared Allen alone had 4.5 sacks, mostly attributable to Darryn Colledge, who was filling in for the injured Chad Clifton at left tackle. It is no small wonder that the Packers are working out former right tackle Mark Tauscher to see if he has recovered enough from his knee injury to play. (The Vikings allowed no sacks.)

Here is how the Packers ranked by unit:

Quarterback: A-

Two of the sacks were attributable to Rodgers holding onto the ball too long. As I mentioned, he had his first turnover, but still only one against a pretty good team. His 384 yards were 56 better than his previous career high in week two against Detroit last season. And he did it all while running for his life.

Running Backs: B+

The Packers ran the ball for only 82 yards, but primarily because they ran it only 17 times. That is a 4.8 yards average against the defense that has been the best in the league over the past three seasons against the run. Ryan Grant had 11 carries for 51 yards (4.6 average) and four catches for 50 yards (12.5) to continue his improvement in the passing game. DeShawn Wynn had three touches for 21 yards and John Kuhn two for five.

Receivers: A-

They got open quickly and made plays after the catch, with only one drop I can recall.

Donald Lee turned a screen pass into a 16-yard gain by pulling away from, splitting, and hurdling defenders; he also had three other catches for 12 more yards. JerMichael Finley’s performance (six catches for 128 yards and a touchdown) was extraordinary, however, making me renew my plea to just make him the team’s starting tight end.

The corps showed depth, with Jordy Nelson had three catches for 47 yards and the other score, and James Jones having a 34-yard reception. Starting wide receivers Donald Driver and Greg Jennings had four for 55 and three for 31, respectively.

Offensive Line: F

No team has ever won anything significant with a line this bad, and any player’s sacks accumulated against this line should not be counted. True, they were up against arguably the best defensive line in football (thanks to a Vikings fan getting to overrule the league policy on banned substances!), but they have to do better than this (20 sacks in four games).

Defensive Line: A-

In a 3-4, the defensive line is responsible for gap control. They occupy blockers and let the linebackers get the sacks and tackles. Yet the five linemen who played had ten tackles and six assists, and should receive most of the credit for holding the best running back in the league to 55 yards on 25 carries (2.2-yard average)—and 63 yards on 30 carried overall—as well as some credit for Peterson’s fumble.

Linebackers: C-

Sure, this unit forced and recovered a fumble that was returned for a touchdown, and the five players generated 19 tackles and 14 assists. But there were no sacks and no other turnovers, and the backs and tight ends accounted for 11 of the Vikings 24 catches and 87 of their 271 yards.

Defensive Backs: C+

Once again, this stout unit (three Pro Bowl players) had mixed results. They had 15 tackles and an assist (led by Al Harris’ six and one, respectively), but gave up an average of 16.3 yards per catch and nearly 200 yards overall to the Vikings wide receivers. More importantly, they failed to generate a turnover against the most prodigious turnover machine in NFL history.

Special Teams: C-

Mason Crosby hit his only field goal attempt and both extra points, and put two of his six kicks into the endzone, resulting in one touchback; two of his four kicks that did not go into the endzone were onside kicks. The Vikings returns were poor, as well, averaging just 17 yards with none of 20-plus. By contrast, Green Bay averaged a solid 24-plus yards on five returns.

The punt team was not so good, however, with just a 30-yard net because of 24- and 18-yard returns allowed. The Packers punt returns were even worse—two for no yards.

The bottom line, however, is that I was encouraged by the Packers play in this one. The offensive line and new defense will only get better. The Traitor will only get worse as the season wears down his old arm.

Yet the Vikings only secured victory against the Packers in their final minute on their home field. Meanwhile, the Bears only lost to the Packers because of a horrible game by their quarterback.

This division will be interesting well into December, and that should make any football fan salivate.

San Jose Sharks: A "Tail" of Two Teams

MJ Kasprzak — Fri, 09 Oct 2009 15:58:41 -0400

The 2009-10 San Jose Sharks are 2-2. Often in hockey, one team outplays another but loses, perhaps because of the opposing goaltender, perhaps because of lucky or unlucky bounces.

That has not been the case in this season. The Sharks have played two good games and two bad games, and the better team has won all four. A lot of the problem for the Sharks has come on the back end—both goalies have a save percentage under .900, and they have give up 13 goals in just four games.

The tail is not the only problem—there have been numerous mental lapses leading to the losses, as well. Worse are the problems with effort, or heart—long a weakness of this team exposed in the playoffs.

In the season opener, the Sharks were (so I am told, being unable to watch the game on Versus because of their dispute with their parent company’s chief competitor, DirecTV) outworked, outhustled, and outskated en route to a 5-2 victory to the rebuilding Colorado Avalanche.

True, they did outshoot their opponents, and Evgeni Nabokov was outplayed. Nabby gave up five goals on just 20 shots, while Craig Anderson gave up only two on 40. The Avalanche had two more penalties, too—seems like a game we played well enough outside of net to win.

But Colorado was equal to or greater than the Sharks in all the hustle categories: takeaways, hits, faceoffs, and blocked shots. They also had two fewer giveaways. The team, announcers, and fans I talked to who saw the game all talked about being outworked.

The Sharks were up for their second game, as was their netminder. The Sharks won in every major statistical category except hits (a 26-21 edge to Anaheim) and penalty minutes (46 to only 34): shots, save percentage, blocked shots, giveaways, takeaways, and faceoffs.

Maybe this is because it was a chance at revenge against their rivals who knocked them out in the first round with relative ease. However, if the team needs motivation to play, that is not a good sign.

That may be why the seesaw season continued. The Sharks came out flat against the Los Angeles Kings and dug themselves in a 4-0 hole before waking up late in the second period.

To their credit, they battled back to tie the game, but then backup goalie Thomas Greiss gave up a horrible goal from near the boards along the goalline. It was not even meant to go in, just to create a rebound opportunity in front of the crease.

That goal marred an otherwise solid performance that included some impressive saves among the other eight shots faced. Greiss came into the game to relieve Nabby, who for the second time in three games could not stop more than 80 percent of the shots he faced.

But in the end, the Sharks gave up a lot of prime chances in that game early and were not skating hard on every shift on either end of the ice. San Jose led in blocked shots, hits, and faceoffs; LA lead in shots, giveaways, and takeaways.

In the team’s home opener, things looked much different. Joe Thornton came up huge, feeding his teammates four assists and threading a beautiful headman pass to Dany Heatley that led to his penalty shot resulting in his hat trick goal. Heater was plus-six with an assist, and Joe was plus-four.

The Sharks had other stars come up big, too: Dan Boyle had a goal and two assists and Devin Setoguchi a goal and an assist. Marc-Edouard Vlasic also scored a goal, and Douglas Murray added an assist.

However, the carelessness with the puck has been evident in three of the four games they played, including against Columbus. In that performance, the only statistics the Sharks were on the losing end of were blocked shots, giveaways, and takeaways.

Nabby gave up three goals on just 27 shots, and has just an .859 save percentage and a miserable 3.68 goals against average. Those are not the number of a goalie who can win in the playoffs.

If coach Todd McLellan does not address the head, heart, and tail of the Sharks, this could be a roller-coaster season with another disappointing ending.

Green Bay Packers-Minnesota Vikings: The Traitor Awaits!

MJ Kasprzak — Mon, 05 Oct 2009 20:33:59 -0400

Pull out all the stops!

This game is for the NFC North lead, bragging rights between two rivals, and a memorandum on two quarterbacks.

Except the game really means none of those things.

No one cares who takes the division lead a quarter of the way into the season. What matters is who is standing in that position in January.

Bragging rights tend to be more significant for the team that wins the second game of the head-to-head. Sure, the winner of this game can brag for a few weeks, but the winner of the second game will have almost a year.

Besides, at one point, Dennis Green's Vikings went 9-5 against the Packers, but won only two division titles to the Packers' three. The Packers had a Super Bowl title and were 8-4 in the playoffs, while the Vikings won only one playoff game.

Which team had more to boast about?

Finally, this game is absolutely not a memorandum on the quarterbacks. Aaron Rodgers has outperformed Brett Favre in the first 19 games of his career, and may well win ten times as many games for the remainder of it.

It would be no more fair to compare the two in this game alone- than it would to compare them for the years after "The Traitor" finally does retire- and only Rodgers is still winning games.

This one game will be won or lost as a team.

Too bad for Rodgers and Packers fans, because Green Bay simply does not match up well in this one.

Packers pass offense vs. Vikings pass defense: Slight advantage, Minnesota

The Vikings do not have a very good secondary, and the Packers have a deep and dangerous receiving corps. The Packers have last year's sixth-rated, and this year's eighth-rated passer, making this seem to be a clear edge for the Packers.

Except for one thing: Green Bay also has one of the worst offensive lines in the history of the NFL, especially with left tackle Chad Clifton out injured. With the pressure coming from one of the NFL's premier front-fours, Aaron Rodgers may be lucky to survive, much less thrive.

Packers rush offense vs. Vikings rush defense: Huge advantage, Minnesota

The front four of the Vikings is even more stout against the run, than they are rushing the passer, with two of their three Pro Bowl players getting that recognition for run-stuffing.

This team led the league in rush defense over the past two seasons, and are facing an offense that has struggled to run the ball primarily because of the poor offensive line play.

Vikings pass offense vs. Packers pass defense: Huge advantage, Green Bay

The Packers boast three Pro Bowl players in the secondary and have forced more turnovers than any team but the New Orleans Saints; with one fewer game played.

The player they are facing is well-known to them, and also a prodigious turnover machine, committing more of them than anyone in the history of the game.

Green Bay's pass rush is also much-improved over last season, with its return to health and the implementation of the 3-4 defense wreaking more havoc on pass protections.

While the Vikings line is solid, it will struggle in this department unless the Vikings run the ball so well, as to keep the defense from being able to effectively pass rush.

Vikings rush offense vs. Packers rush defense: Huge advantage, Minnesota

Unfortunately for the Packers, the Vikings will run the ball well. Adrian Peterson makes even the best defenses look pedestrian, and his power running style attacks the 3-4 defense better than most.

While the Packers have improved enough in this department to be in the middle of the league, the Vikings may be the best running team around, making this an extreme mismatch.

Special Teams: Advantage, Packers

Green Bay is struggling in this department, with Mason Crosby playing inconsistent, and coverage and return units being unspectacular. Punting has been better than expected, but nothing to lay ones hopes on.

But the Vikings are the worst team in the league in covering punts.

Last year, they gave up two touchdown returns in one game against the New Orleans Saints, and one each in the two games against Green Bay. They already have given up big returns this year.

Their kick coverage is mediocre-at-best, and their return games no better. They do have a reliable kicker, but he isn't good at 50-plus yards or on kickoffs, and their punting game is only above average.

Intangibles: Advantage, Green Bay

The pressure is on the Vikings to win this one. If they lose, the Packers will be unbeaten in the division and own the tie-break over the Vikings, with Minnesota having to win in Green Bay to even things up.

The Packers are expected to lose, making this like playing with house money.

Also, Brad Childress is on the hot seat and Mike McCarthy is not; Mac is 5-1 against his rival counterpart. The Traitor will likely try to win this game on every play, bringing out his worst.

Prediction: 27-16 Vikings

The game will just not be in enough jeopardy to count on The Traitor losing it for Minnesota. The Packers will struggle to do anything offensively to make this one in doubt in the fourth quarter.

NHL: Time To Dump Versus Network!

MJ Kasprzak — Sun, 04 Oct 2009 01:41:43 -0400

The San Jose Sharks were one of the teams chosen to kick off the 2009-10 NHL season because they are a team with All Star talent that plays exciting end-to-end hockey. So why is it a Sharks community leader is unable to even see the game?

Gary Bettman. His short-sighted decision four-plus years ago to take a little more money from a third-rate network rather than let the league continue to be showcased by the top sports network in the country, ESPN.

At the time, Versus was a fringe network no one could find on their cable or satellite that carried pseudo-sports glorifying cruelty to living things like hunting, fishing, and rodeo, as well as boring sports like cycling. Seems like a perfect match: many Americans would put hockey in one or both categories.

(Before some nutjob takes a shot at me as a pansy or PETA-wacko, I hunted and fished as a child and young adult. For me, it was about putting food on the table).

But I have watched less than a minute of multiple hunting shows because it was all I could stand of the macho enjoyment of killing on display. If you can afford a 30-ott six on which you have affixed the technology of a ten-power scope so you can shoot something you cannot even see with the naked eye, it is not about putting food on your table.

It also does not take stones to kill an unarmed creature who does not even know you are there. Wanna prove how tough you are? Hunt something that fights back with a weapon you can make with your own hands.

So ends my pre-emptive rant.

Bettman told us the network would build around and showcase hockey. How can it be showcasing when no one sees it? At the time, nearly a quarter of the hockey audience did not even have the network available to them.

However, it became more accessible and the network did a pretty good job covering the game. Then it got greedy.

See, Versus is owned by Comcast, the largest cable company in the country, That makes them the chief rival of DirecTV, the largest satellite provider…think that might be influencing their negotiations?

A commissioner of a league lacking for exposure at a time when it is bursting with young talent needing to be showcased would not have made a deal with a company that has such a conflict of interest. ESPN has no such conflict, and could have shown games on ESPN, ESPN2, and ABC. Versus offered only itself and NBC, and has shown it is willing to exacerbate the exposure problem for its own gain.

How appropriate that the network Gary Bettman chose shares his short-sighted greed.

So what did I miss? A lackluster effort by the team inexplicably still picked by many to hoist Lord Stanley’s Cup even though the talent level has dropped from what they had last season, when they could not win more than two playoff games.

At least Patrick Marleau played well, netting both Sharks goals. Unfortunately, they also gave up two to Wojtek Wolski, plus three other goals. No other Shark scored.

Like much of last season, San Jose outshot their opponent (41-20), leaving one to wonder at the netminding comparison that should have favoured the Sharks heavily. The power play also was not working well (1-6).

However, not having seen the game, I will leave the analysis to those who did.

NHL: 2009-10 Is Here!

MJ Kasprzak — Thu, 01 Oct 2009 16:08:36 -0400

A new season is about to get underway tonight, and there are a number of storylines:

Were the Detroit Red Wings exposed in the Stanley Cup Finals as an aging team that no longer can play a 100-game season?
Are the Chicago Blackhawks ready to take the next step and unseat the Red Wings as the Central Division team to beat?
Are the Pittsburgh Penguins initiating the first NHL dynasty of this decade?
Did the Philadelphia Flyers take the next step by adding playoff performers to their roster?
Will Dany Heatley give the San Jose Sharks the scorer they have been lacking in the playoffs to get them over the hump, or do they still lack the customary grit other teams have used instead?

My answers are maybe, yes, yes, yes, yes, and yes. In other words, the Sharks did need that scorer, but still lack the grit it takes to win in May.

So how do I see the season playing out? Here are my predicted seedings in April, starting with the East:

Washington Capitals—because they are an exceptional team in a weak division, they will win the President's Trophy.
Boston Bruins—still a complete team that will dominate their division.
Pittsburgh Penguins—even in one of the toughest divisions in hockey, this is the best team and it will find a way to win it.
Philadelphia Flyers—this team will be nasty and have scoring punch.
Carolina Hurricanes—thanks to balance, experience, and a weak schedule, this team will contend for home ice in the first round.
Montreal Canadiens—I see them rebounding from their disappointing finish in 2009 because there is too much talent and they are in a mediocre division.
New York Rangers—Henrik Lundqvist will win the Vezina Trophy, and he will need to with this anemic offence in this division.
New Jersey Devils—lost talent from last season, and their Hall of Fame goalie is beginning to show his mileage.

In the West, a lot of people are still picking the Sharks. Considering this team has not gotten out of the second round since before the lockout and is not very deep this year, that is puzzling. In my mind, they are not even the best team in their division.

Here is how I see the West playing out:

Vancouver Canucks—not the best team in the West, but the most dominant within their division.
Anaheim Ducks—they have a better blueline than the Sharks, more depth, and better goaltending...I'll take that over better forwards any day, especially since they also upgraded there.
Chicago Blackhawks—Huet should be able to outplay an aging Chris Osgood, and that's the margin between the Wings and Hawks.
Detroit Red Wings—they are only old at key positions, but they have played over 20 percent more games than their Great Lakes' rivals since the lockout, and that mileage does more to them than their experience does for them.
San Jose Sharks—finishing here means a first-round win is an upset, especially against Detroit.
Calgary Flames—Miikka Kiprusoff is wearing down and this team lacks the scoring and discipline to win when the games get tight.
Dallas Stars—they will be healthy and be able to get fat off the Phoenix Coyotes, allowing them to make it back into the playoffs, even without Sergei Zubov.
Columbus Blue Jackets—teams will figure out how to score more on Steve Mason, whose save percentage was middle of the pack.

That leaves the playoffs. Here is a round-by-round breakdown of how they go:

In the East, I predict the Capitals in six, Bruins in seven, Penguins in five, Flyers in seven. In the West, I have the Canucks in six, Ducks in seven, Hawks in six, and the Sharks as the lone "upset" because of better goaltending and sheer desperation, taking the series in six.
In the East, the Caps will need seven to advance and the Pens only six. In the West, the Sharks are a hair better and more experienced than the Canucks, taking advantage of a favourable matchup to advance further than they have in years (six games). The Hawks are the better team and will beat the Ducks in six.
In the East, the Pens can overcome the Caps having home ice, and will need just six games. The Sharks stand little chance against the better Hawks with the higher seed, but can stretch it to six.
The Hawks will be lucky to make the Pens play six in this one—Pittsburgh is better in every unit and has the experience.

NFL: Packers 36, Rams 17

MJ Kasprzak — Tue, 29 Sep 2009 16:06:00 -0400

The Green Bay Packers came up with a win on the road Sunday over the St. Louis Rams, 36-17. With the victory, the Packers reached a record of 2-1 and move a game behind the division leader, the Minnesota Vikings.

Next week’s game is in Minnesota against long-time Packers signal caller and future first ballot Hall of Famer, Brett Favre. A win would put the Packers in control of the division.

It’s not going to happen.

Don’t get me wrong: Green Bay did some impressive things in this game. Green Bay’s defense continued to force turnovers, with two fumbles and a pick.

On offense, the Packers showed balance in getting over 400 yards. Ryan Grant ran out the clock well as the Packers offense wore down the Rams by the fourth quarter, getting 152 yards on 37 carries. The passing game got back on track with a 250-yard performance in which Aaron Rodgers was 13-23 for 269 yards and two scores; he has yet to have a turnover this season.

The offensive line held the Rams to two sacks even without Chad Clifton, the anchor of the unit. Green Bay got two touchdowns from the fullback position, on a run and reception by John Kuhn.

But that’s about where the positives end. In fact, two of those positives are mitigated by circumstance: the two sacks yielded tripled the Rams total for the season, and the defense still gave up 17 points to an offense that came in with seven total points scored. Green Bay converted only two of nine first downs.

Furthermore, the Packers had only one sack for no yards. They faced back-up quarterback Kyle Boller for most of the game, so holding a career 72.0-rated passer to a 75.2 rating is unimpressive. Brandon Chillar, supposedly the Packers best covering linebacker, allowed two big plays.

Stephen Jackson ran for 117 yards on 27 carries. This is a modest 4.2-yard average considering his talent and the Packers’ focus on stopping the pass once they built a lead, but that does not build confidence preceding a game against Adrian Peterson, who is now far and away the best back in the league.

What’s more, two of the turnovers were somewhat flukish. On one, Marc Bulger appeared to simply lose control of the football without being touched. On the other, Jackson’s fumble was questionable at best.

The special teams were awful again, making the Bears game appear more likely a fluke. Mason Crosby missed an extra point and had another that was converted partially blocked. Will Blackmon’s kick returns were for a pedestrian 22 and 26 yards, and his punt returns an anemic six yards and a one-yard loss…there were also penalties on two of his four returns.

Jeremy Kapinos fared much better than last week punting, with over a 44-yard net average in his four punts. But the coverage units were inconsistent, allowing a 14-yard punt return and a 43-yard kick return, even though the average kick return was just 23 yards. The highlight of the unit was a partial block and recovery of a field goal attempt.

Report Card

Quarterback: B
Running Back: C
Receivers: B
Offensive Line: D+
Defensive Line: C
Linebackers: C-
Defensive Backs: B-
Special Teams: D+

NFL Week Three Power Poll and Predictions

MJ Kasprzak — Sun, 27 Sep 2009 04:44:22 -0400

First, how I rank all 32 teams:

New York Giants—my preseason pick to win the Super Bowl has finally gotten to the top of the power poll, thanks to the losses of the Steelers and Patriots.
Atlanta Falcons—their defense looks better than expected so far.
Pittsburgh Steelers—despite the one loss, they are the best team on paper.
New Orleans Saints—I am regretting wimping out on picking them to win the NFC South.
Baltimore Ravens—unbeaten, but have not played anyone of consequence.
Minnesota Vikings—have even sorrier strength-of-victories than the Ravens.
New York Jets—could Sanchez already be a quality NFL starter?
Indianapolis Colts—barely got either win over mediocre-at-best opposition.
San Francisco Forty-Niners—actually played the toughest schedule of the unbeaten teams.
New England Patriots—look to have more problems on both sides of the ball than it appeared in preseason.
Chicago Bears—one bad Jay Cutler performance from being a top-tier team.
San Diego Chargers—still a dangerous team with balance, they have started off badly both years under Norv Turner before finishing strong.
Dallas Cowboys—lost a tough opener in their new stadium, but played well against the league's top team.
Tennessee Titans—how does an 0-2 team make the top half of the league? Tough losses, a great team on paper, and an experienced coach.
Arizona Cardinals—still have the most dangerous passing attack, and it may be getting on track.
Philadelphia Eagles—suffer in the poll from the uncertain health of Donovan McNabb.
Washington Offensively Named Ones—how does a team with an offensive name have no offense?
Buffalo Bills—a surprise this high, but were one boneheaded play from being 2-0.
Seattle Seahawks—may be getting bitten by last year's injury bug.
Houston Texans—still have not won when the pressure was on.
Miami Dolphins—they have been in both losses and against pretty good competition.
Green Bay Packers—see Seahawks, plus add a horrible offensive line.
Denver Broncos—better than expected, but just lack the pieces.
Oakland Raiders—two competitive games, with the loss coming against a very good Chargers squad. But can JaMarcus Russell throw on target?
Cincinnati Bengals—until they put some consistency together, one must assume last week was a fluke.
Carolina Panthers—they are good on paper, but in the games played on the field they have been horrible.
Jacksonville Jaguars—more competitive in their losses than one might expect, but still a bottom-tier team until they win one.
Kansas City Chiefs—Matt Cassell is not so great without Randy Moss and Wes Welker to throw to, but he's played two good defenses.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers—how soon do they turn the reigns over to Josh Freeman?
Detroit Lions—look like they have more offense than last season.
Cleveland Browns—two seasons ago obviously was a fluke now.
St. Louis Rams—no pass rush, no pass blocking, and not one Pro Bowl calibre player.

Now for my picks for the week (home team in CAPS), with the lowest being the least sure to win and the highest being the most:

SEAHAWKS over Bears
CARDINALS over Colts
Titans over JETS
PATRIOTS over Falcons
CHARGERS over Dolphins
RAIDERS over Broncos
COWBOYS over Panthers
Saints over BILLS
Offensively Named Ones over LIONS
VIKINGS over Forty-Niners
TEXANS over Jaguars
EAGLES over Chiefs
Steelers over BENGALS
Packers over RAMS
Giants over BUCCANEERS
RAVENS over Browns

NFL: Green Bay Packers-St. Louis Rams Preview

MJ Kasprzak — Sun, 27 Sep 2009 03:34:27 -0400

Aaron Rodgers has spent much of the regular season running for his life. In the two games so far, the left defensive end—the primary responsibility of right tackle Allen Barbre—has recorded seven sacks (three by other linemen).

Overall, the team has yielded ten—three fewer than the entire 2007 season when the Packers went to the NFC Championship Game.

Things could get worse before they get better: Chad Clifton, the offensive line's only solid starter, is out with an ankle injury. Fortunately for the Packers, they face one of the few teams that may not be able to take advantage of this weakness—St. Louis only have one sack in two games, tied for second-worst in the league.

This has been a source of anguish for the many people who picked the Packers to go deep into the playoffs, including a significant number of national pundits (Mike Ditka, Howie Long, and Michael Strahan to name a few) picking them to make the Super Bowl. It is making even those of us picking them to win the division look shaky, and has been a source of pride for Vikings fans.

Ted Thompson must get help for this offensive line (and soon) or he should be fired. This is too promising a season and the Packers have too much salary cap room because of this penny-pincher to let it go awry while risking the safety of the franchise quarterback.

But enough of my soapbox—let's look at this week's game according to the matchups:

Packers' passing attack vs. Rams' pass defense: big advantage, Packers

The one weakness the Packers have cannot be exploited by the Rams. Because of the ten allowed sacks, the Packers have gained just 376 yards in the air so far. However, the Rams have yielded 516 despite playing a poor passing team last week in Washington and being blown out against Seattle (i.e. a team looking to grind out clock).

We know that Green Bay have a good passing game from its top-ten finish last year. They have too good a quarterback and too deep receiving corps not to take advantage when Rodgers actually has time against this anemic pass rush.

Packers' rushing attack vs. Rams' rushing defense: slight advantage, Packers

Green Bay have gained just 164 yards on the ground, and that is not because they have had to scrap the running game early. However, the Rams have given up 292 yards, and while those numbers are inflated because of playing from behind, they gave up almost five yards per carry against a very mediocre Seattle running game when they knew what was coming.

Rams' passing attack vs. Packers' pass defense: advantage, Packers

The Rams have gained just 289 yards through the air despite playing from behind. However, it should be noted they faced an above average and very good defense, and we know they have a good quarterback.

Green Bay, meanwhile, have allowed a mediocre 434 yards through the air against a poor and pretty good attack. This has been disappointing considering they fielded three Pro Bowlers in the secondary, but they are still forcing turnovers—six interceptions through two games.

Rams' rushing attack vs. Packers' rush defense: too close to call

This sort of depends on which Packers defense shows up—the one that held second-year standout Matt Forte to 55 yards on 25 carries, or the one that allowed Bears castoff Cedric Benson to run through arm tackles. In all, they have allowed 237 rushing yards.

The Rams have not run the ball much because they have been playing from behind, and have not run it especially well when they did. In two games, they have just 203 yards on the ground, but they do have Stephen Jackson, who is still a formidable weapon in the backfield.

Special Teams: slight advantage, Rams

Neither kicker has been that impressive, with Mason Crosby missing two kicks (one in the 40-49 yard range, the other in the 50-plus) and Josh Brown missing his only kick (in the 20-29 yard range). However, that is too small a sample for Brown and both long misses for Crosby.

The Rams have a definite edge in punting, with a better punter and better coverage units, as well as a slightly better return game. The Packers have an edge in kicking, with better coverage and a significantly better return game.

Injuries/intangibles: advantage, Rams

St. Louis face no pressure as nothing is expected of them, although they do not need it as badly as the Packers, either. Green Bay's season is hanging by a thread despite the calendar saying September.

With the big matchup next week in Minnesota against their chief rival and traitor, the team needs this one badly. They also could get caught looking ahead, although the loss to the Bengals lessens the likelihood of that.

The Rams only have rookie tackle Jason Smith that is likely to miss the game. Meanwhile, the Packers will be without Atari Bigby and starting new safety Derrick Martin, plus Pro Bowl safety Nick Collins will be playing through a chest injury. The aforementioned Clifton injury is not the only one on offense, either—backup running back Brandon Jackson is out, as well.

The Packers are out-performing the Rams in third-down conversions on both sides of the ball, time of possession, and have a whopping plus-14.5 edge in points scored by/against. Both teams are virtually equal in penalties, with the Packers having 17 for 121 yards and the Rams 16 for 130.

Prediction: 31-20 Packers

NFL: Bengals 31, Packers 24...the Game Unseen

MJ Kasprzak — Mon, 21 Sep 2009 02:55:08 -0400

My fellow Packers fans are aghast, not just at the way this team lost what should have been its most certain victory, but at the fact that I did not see the game!

As Inigo Montoya would say, "Let me explain...no, there is no time—let me sum up."

As many of you know, I live in the great city of San Francisco, and the games of my childhood team are not always shown locally. No problem—I have DirecTV and purchased NFL Sunday Ticket.

Then my satellite receiver went on the fritz. So we order a new one, get rid of the things we have recorded on TiVo that would be lost in the switch by either watching or taping them, and install the new receiver.

Except it doesn't work, as it turns out they gave us the wrong receiver and it could not record. So unbeknownst to me, while I am serving as a Head Porter for all three services at church (being there from 7:30 a.m. through 1:40 p.m.—I say this because while I am now Protestant, I was raised Catholic and have the appropriate martyr complex and need to complain), the game is not taping.

Maybe it's a good thing.

From what I can tell from a statistical analysis, this performance was appalling. From what I have heard of eyewitness accounts, it was worse than that.

Plus, how frustrating would it have been to see the team run out of time 10 yards from tying the score?

Nonetheless, I have a journalistic obligation to report on the game, even though I lack the tools a journalist would have, such as being able to see more than four or five plays of the game in highlights. Keep that in mind as you judge my grading:

Quarterback: B

Aaron Rodgers was 21 of 39 (.538) for 261 yards (6.7 per attempt) and one score with no picks despite being under constant pressure—he was sacked six times for 39 yards. He ran four times for 43 yards, meaning he accounted for 265 yards on 49 plays—a 5.4-yard average.

Running Back: D-

Ryan Grant, the only running back to get on the stat sheet at all, had 14 carries for just 46 yards (3.3 average). He is showing some ability receiving this year, getting 22 yards on three catches in this game. This gave him a mere 68 yards on 17 plays (exactly a 4-yard average) with one score and one fumble, doing nothing to keep offensive balance.

Wide Receivers: D

Last week only Donald Driver and Greg Jennings made catches from this unit. This week, it was Driver and Jordy Nelson combining for all seven catches for 110 yards (one for 11 by Nelson) and one score. This unit was supposed to be the deepest on the team and was third-best in the league last year, but they have to help Rodgers out more.

Tight End: B

A surprising bright spot on the team considering this looked to be the weakest unit going in. All three tight ends had over 20 yards receiving, combining for nine catches and 105 yards. JerMichael Finley is asserting himself as the team's top tight end with four catches for 56 yards, twice what "starter" Donald Lee had in his four catches.

However, this unit needs to help open more running lanes and support in pass protection better.

Offensive Line: is there a grade lower than F?

There should be for this unit. Allen Barbre is largely responsible for the five sacks of Antawn Odom, who came into the game with just 17.5 in 65 career games. Chad Clifton went down with injury, and that does not bode well with the struggles of the rest of the young line.

No one is playing well, and even on bad knees, Mark Tauscher has to be better than Barbre. Ted Thompson may not like to do it, but he has to sign a new right tackle (Levi Jones?) if the season is not going to be completely lost. Teams now know they can come at Rodgers all day from that side, and they will exploit that weakness.

Defensive Line: C-

Cullen Jenkins managed one of the Packers two sacks, and the mere four tackles and one assist by the unit is not alarming because in a 3-4, the line just occupies blockers so the linebackers can make plays. But giving up 151 yards on the ground in 34 carries (a 4.4-yard average)—mostly to Cedric Benson no less—suggests they did not do that.

Linebackers: D

This unit has to be held accountable for the six catches for 64 yards from the Bengals running backs and tight ends. This is nothing special since none of them got into the endzone, but nothing to be proud of considering none of those guys are making a run at a Pro Bowl.

The entire unit accounted for 13 tackles and eight assists, the kind of numbers usually associated with one or two players. Even Clay Matthews' first sack is nothing special—in a 3-4 this unit should get more than one sack every game.

Defensive Backs: B+

Charles Woodson had another stellar game, remaining the lone impact player Ted Thompson has ever signed. He had two interceptions and returned one for a touchdown, and led the team with nine tackles and an assist.

It is never a good thing when a defensive back is your leading tackler. It is even worse when there is no one on the team with more tackles than your top three defensive backs. The unit as a whole accounted for 27 tackles and six assists, and the rest of the defense had 17 and nine, respectively. Ouch!

Despite their stellar tackling, two turnovers forced, and score, they did give up all three scores. Carson Palmer did complete 65 percent of his passes for over eight yards per attempt, but a lot of that may be the lack of pressure. The wide receivers of the Bengals are probably their best unit, and managed just nine catches for 121 yards.

Special Teams: F

Did I see this right—Jeremy Kapinos had a 24.2 yard net average on his punts? Are you freaking kidding me? The punt coverage allowed a 22-yard average on returns!

Were we better in kick coverage? No, coverage there gave up over 40 yards per return. Maybe you could say it was better because it recovered an onside...

How about the return game? Okay, but not great: Will Blackmon averaged 22 yards on his kick returns, and neither he nor anyone else had any punt return yardage.

So was Mason Crosby at least good? Sort of—he did miss one of his two field goal attempts, but it was from 55 yards and the one he hit to draw the team within seven was from 45.

I should add that the Packers lost a game in which the opponents were flagged for 13 penalties, mostly by getting 11 themselves. The Packers were the second-most penalized team in the league last year and the second-most injured—both of those trends look to be continuing (Atari Bigby will miss up to a month with his knee injury suffered last week), and if not corrected, will lead to another long season.

Next week the Packers travel to St. Louis, which appears to be an even easier game than this one did on paper. They must not only win but play well to prepare themselves for the big divisional matchup against that traitor and his new team, who may well come into that week 3-0.

I originally wrote this article for SportsScribes.net.

MJ's NFL Power Poll and Predictions, Week Two

MJ Kasprzak — Sun, 20 Sep 2009 04:11:42 -0400

First, I will start with the power poll. For a view of how these picks changed, see last week's article...

Pittsburgh Steelers—the Patriots' close call against a bad team made the Steelers' close call against a good one seem inconsequential.
New York Giants—because I do not believe in picking repeats, I am riding this team all the way through Miami.
New England Patriots—their lackluster performance and Tom Brady's inability to step properly into throws makes me see them as questionable.
Tennessee Titans—looked good in defeat, and those ahead of them looked worse in victory.
Atlanta Falcons—the defense was supposed to be questionable at best, but was dominant in week one.
Baltimore Ravens—here by default since a 14-point win over the Chiefs at home is not impressive.
Philadelphia Eagles—losing Donovan McNabb is an Eagles fan's worst nightmare, whether they realize it or not: Kevin Kolb is not ready, and this just adds fuel to the Michael Vick vs. McNabb controversy.
San Diego Chargers—a narrow victory in Oakland may not be as alarming as it would seem, since the Raiders play tough there, especially against division rivals.
Green Bay Packers—getting the close and comeback win gets the monkey off Aaron Rodgers' back, but the Bears exposed many holes.
Minnesota Vikings—still have major special teams problems, and there is nothing impressive about beating the Browns, even by that margin.
Seattle Seahawks—looked like the best team in week one until you consider they were playing the worst.
Dallas Cowboys—a solid road win but against a weak team.
Chicago Bears—may have better receivers than thought, and Jay Cutler will not play that badly again...the loss of Brian Urlacher means little, as it is a regular occurrence and he is overrated.
Indianapolis Colts—barely beating a bad team at home makes placing them this high questionable.
New Orleans Saints—I know that was the Lions, but Drew Brees looks ready to follow last season with another big one.
Washington Offensively Named Ones—were competitive on the road against one of the game's best teams.
New York Jets—Mark Sanchez is better than the quarterback he was in the preseason, and with this defense, this team's a contender.
San Francisco Forty-Niners—this team will play a lot of ugly games, but can win them, in part because no-one's linebackers tackle better.
Arizona Cardinals—too much talent to drop out of the top 20, but they haven't looked good this summer.
Carolina Panthers—I saw this team as a darkhorse, but then listened to everyone else...last week made me look right in the first place.
Miami Dolphins—still a solid team, but they cannot rely on the surprise factor of the horribly over-hyped "wildcat offense."
Buffalo Bills—moved up only one space despite a near victory in Foxboro because they proved the adage that bad teams find a way to lose.
Jacksonville Jaguars—their close loss may be as much because of the Colts' shortcomings as the Jags being better than expected.
Houston Texans—like I said, until they can play a full season, I will not jump on this bandwagon...last week may have been a sign they are not ready to take the next step.
Oakland Raiders—another example of bad teams finding a way to lose, but they still played well against an ostensibly elite team.
Kansas City Chiefs—tough first-week gig, but week two should show if they are as bad as advertised.
Denver Broncos—pulled out a road win, albeit with a little luck and against the lowly Bengals, but the defense may not be as bad as projected.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers—kept it close against a solid team.
Cincinnati Bengals—that loss has to make you feel you are cursed.
Cleveland Browns—played a close first half, but wore down quickly.
Detroit Lions—gave up that many yards and still looked better than last year!
St. Louis Rams—could they threaten the Lions' place in history as the only 16-loss team ever?

Now for this week's picks, in order from least to most sure:

Eagles
Giants
Colts
Chiefs
Patriots
Chargers
Forty-Niners
Cardinals
Steelers
Bills
Broncos
Vikings
Falcons
Titans
Packers
Offensively Named Ones

Last week I finished 12-4 (.750), with 123 of a possible 136 points (losing my 1, 2, 4, and 6 point picks—.904).

NFL: Packers 21, Bears 15

MJ Kasprzak — Mon, 14 Sep 2009 14:41:02 -0400

The Tale of Two Games.

Well, actually more like three.

There was the first half, dominated by the Packers defense. The Packers gave up a safety and forced three Jay Cutler interceptions that led to two easy scores for the offense, ending the half up 10-2.

Then there was the first 20 minutes of the second half, dominated by the Bears. They scored 10 points and kept the Packers from generating anything on offense.

Then one of the strangest plays I have seen in the four decades I have been watching this storied rivalry took place.

The Bears were facing a 4th-and-11 from their own 25, the long snapper thought the Bears could get a free play because Clay Matthews was still on the field. However, the upback did not see him signal the direct snap, and while he caught the ball, he was easily stopped after a short gain of five.

Lovie Smith challenged the play to see if Matthews had gotten off, but he had—this only left the Bears with one fewer timeout and no remaining challenges. More than that, it gave the Packers an easy field goal to regain the lead and the momentum.

The Bears were able to drive late thanks in part to a horrible call on Al Harris for illegal contact. As best as Cris Collinsworth was able to ascertain, the officials thought it was beyond five yards only because Devin Hester was a yard behind the line of scrimmage, which should have been a call on him for illegal formation.

(And may I say what a pleasure it was having a color commentator who can actually analyze the game instead of talking about linemen's sweat stains! Collinsworth also noted how Cutler's receivers were not completing routes and how that led to a missed touchdown the play before Johnny Jolly's artistic interception.)

Instead, the Bears got the go-ahead score with under three minutes to go. The Packers and their fans were left to worry about losing their eighth game by less than five points with Aaron Rodgers under center.

But Rodgers and company pulled it out with a 50-yard bomb to Greg Jennings with under two minutes to play, and Cutler's fourth interception on the ensuing possession, sealed a 21-15 win for the Pack.

Here are my unit-by-unit grades for Green Bay:

Quarterback: B-

I was already hearing all the Brett Favre apologists—even after all he has done to disregard them in his endless quest for revenge because the team did not kick one of the league's best young quarterbacks to the curb for a washed up one who quit on the team—blaming this one on Aaron. And at least this time they might have had a point—he did miss two deep touchdowns, ostensibly because of the pressure he was under.

But as they constantly told me every time I reminded them of Rodgers' statistical superiority over almost all of Favre's seasons, he made plays when it counted. (Nevermind that he threw picks when it counted, too, like single-handedly giving the Rams that playoff win with six of them!)

Well, Rodgers hit Jennings in stride for the game-winner. His numbers were decent but unspectacular: 17-for-28, 184 yards, one TD and no picks; he ran the ball three times for seven yards.

Running Back: D+

Ryan Grant ran the ball 16 times for 61 yards (3.8 average) against a pretty stout defense, and had one catch for six yards. DeShawn Wynn showed why he should not have been kept, getting only eight yards on three carries and eight more on one catch. Korey Hall had one catch for 11 yards, and John Kuhn did a good job blocking.

Wide Receiver: C

Greg Jennings carried this unit, with six catches for 106 yards and the only score. But the rest of the unit generated four catches for 39 yards, all by Donald Driver. Jordy Nelson dropped at least one pass, and there were at least two other drops I can recall (they may not have been by wide receivers).

Tight End: F

Donald Lee had three catches for eight yards, and JerMichael Finley had one for six. That's an average of just 3.5 yards per catch, and from a twosome that did nothing to open holes in the running game. This remains one of the offense's Achilles Heels.

Offensive Line: F

Allen Barbre was absolutely atrocious as the first post-Mark Tauscher right tackle this decade. He yielded two sacks and countless pressures and knockdowns. The team's one supposed anchor, Chad Clifton, missed an assignment that led to a sack, and there was another sack allowed for a safety.

Jason Spitz got his first holding penalty in more than 1,000 snaps, and there were three other penalties on the line. What's more, the Bears defensive line penetrated the backfield on about half of the Packers run attempts, leading to the poor rushing totals. This may be the most troubling component of the Packers moving forward.

Defensive Line: A+

While the defense only generated two sacks, Cutler was under constant pressure. In a 3-4, the line ties up the blocking for everyone else to make the plays, but Cullen Jenkins still got a sack and disrupted play all night. Johnny Jolly was also a force, with an interception that made James Lofton's hands jealous. They can also largely be credited with containing Matt Forte, who had just 55 yards on 25 carries.

Linebackers: B+

Brandon Chillar lept over a blocker to get a sack, and coverage was good. Former defensive end Aaron Kampman, who has been the most consistently cited player by haters suggesting the Packers were trying to fit square pegs into round holes because he would not be able to cover people. He successfully covered the slot receiver on one play.

Defensive Backs: B-

How does a unit that was the Packers' best coming into the season and that generated three interceptions rank only a B-? Simple, by giving up 238 yards on 17 catches against one of the worst receiving corps in the league.

Nick Collins missed his deep responsibility on Devin Hester for the Bears' first score. Two of the interceptions were thrown right at players, and Tramon Williams dropped two prospective picks on consecutive plays.

Special Teams: B

This was supposed to be the biggest advantage the Bears had coming in, but the Packers won this battle. Mason Crosby missed a 49-yard field goal, but made one from 52 and another from 39. Jermey Kapinos was unspectacular, but averaging almost a 35-yard net against one of the best punt returners in the history of the game is nothing to be ashamed of.

The coverage units did their job on kicks, too, yielding just 24.3 yards per return and none over 27 yards. The returns (all by Jordy Nelson) were mostly average—seven yards on two punt returns and a 26-yard average for three of the kick returns—outside of the one long one Nelson busted for 46 to start the game.

One troubling thing was injuries. Jolly, Collins, and Atari Bigby all went down with injuries. If this trend from last year continues, this promising season could be cut short like last season was.

The Packers host Cincinnati next Sunday.

I originally wrote this article for SportsScribes.net.

NFC 2009 Season Predictions

MJ Kasprzak — Sun, 13 Sep 2009 14:12:43 -0400

Like a kid on Christmas Eve, I could not sleep last night. I am so excited about this season that I was up until 3:30 a.m. and back up by 9:30 a.m. to watch the pregame shows. (That's right East Coasters, there are lots of us watching football on the Pacific, too.)

Why am I so excited? Certainly a big factor is the changes in my Green Bay Packers that have them on the verge of becoming an elite team again, prompting both Howie Long and Michael Strahan to pick them to play in the Super Bowl.

But the league also has a lot of great competition. I see there being eight teams in the NFC that could win 10 games, and four others who are still legitimate playoff contenders. The NFC East alone has four playoff contenders and three teams capable of winning games when they get there.

There are also other storylines. What effect will the presence of Mike Vick have on the Eagles? How much will the Cowboys benefit from the loss of Terrell Owens and Pacman Jones?

And of course, the endless stories on the ultimate media whore, Brett Favre, who is already saying he might not want to play a whole season. Ever see a team gel behind the leadership position of football when that player chooses not to play?

I could go on about the storylines, but it is only keeping me from watching the games. So without further adieu, here are my predictions for 2009 by division and subsequently in the playoffs (for points about each team, see my last NFL article):

NFC East

New York Giants—this team will only be the fourth seed.
Philadelphia Eagles—like last year, they just get into the playoffs.
Dallas Cowboys—in another division, they might make the playoffs.
Washington Offensively Named Ones—no offense.

NFC North

Green Bay Packers—a first-round bye thanks to an easy schedule.
Minnesota Vikings—how does a Viking fan court get to overrule the league on the Williams brothers?
Chicago Bears—Cutler again will not make the playoffs.
Detroit Lions—but hey, they'll be infinitely better than last year...

NFC South

Atlanta Falcons—they earn the top seed.
Carolina Panthers—not enough to get into the post-season.
New Orleans Saints—too bad the Saints didn't have a fan rule in their suspensions.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers—rebuilding.

NFC West

Seattle Seahawks—edge out the Cards, but not good enough to get a first-round bye.
Arizona Cardinals—continue the trend of Super Bowl losers missing the playoffs.
San Francisco 49ers—will be lucky to play .500.
St. Louis Rams—may well be the worst team in football.

Playoffs, round-by-round—you will see that I have picked three road wins, because those teams are simply better:

Eagles over Seahawks, Giants over Vikings
Eagles over Falcons, Giants over Packers
Giants over Eagles

Tomorrow, I will submit an article on the AFC.