Bleacher Report - Articles by Tristan Holmes

The 113th Civil War: For Bragging Rights, the Rose Bowl, and Revenge

Tristan Holmes — Tue, 01 Dec 2009 02:32:21 -0500

The funny thing about any “game of the year” in college football is that they seem to, for lack of a better word, “reproduce” as the season goes on.

The Ducks opener against Boise State was the “game of the year” for the Broncos to keep their BCS hopes alive. That is about all I want to say about it. If I am forced to remember anything else, I may cry.

Five consecutive wins later, and Oregon played USC in the “game of the year” to decide the fate of the Trojan dynasty. On Halloween, the Ducks treated their fans to a sweet 47-20 final.

A defensive meltdown against Stanford and a home win against Arizona State later, and the Ducks faced off against Arizona in the desert for the right to control their own destiny for the Rose Bowl, in the latest “game of the year” in the Pac-10.

ESPN’s Game Day could not have picked a better venue. A back-and-forth game was finally settled in the second overtime as Jeremiah Masoli tumbled into the endzone over two Wildcat defenders to finish the “instant classic.”

But another team has also been taking care of business.

After some issues early in the season against Cincinnati, Arizona, and USC, the Oregon State Beavers have finished strong (as they have tended to do during both of Mike Riley’s tenures as head coach), and for the second year in a row, have the opportunity to go to the Rose Bowl if they can beat Oregon.

Oregon State’s coaches have tried to downplay the revenge factor, but there is no denying the fans (and some of the players, if you were paying attention to Twitter) are relishing their chance to inflict the same pain on the Ducks that they endured a season ago.

That they could make up for last year and reach the Rose Bowl with a win makes this Thursday a perfect opportunity the Beavers are in no mood to waste.

But standing in their way is an Oregon team that demonstrated last week they could overcome mistakes to find a way to win in the clutch.

It all adds up to the first time in 113 meetings between these two teams where either winner is guaranteed a birth in the Rose Bowl.

It is the de-facto Pac-10 championship game.

It is the game for bragging rights in a state where almost every resident has some ties to one of, and often both, universities.

It is the Civil War.

It is the game of the year.

So what do these teams need to do to come out on top in what many consider the most important game in the history of this heated rivalry?

For the Ducks, it would be nice if they could simply do what they did last year and score more than 60 points. But a repeat of that performance will be tough to come by.

The Ducks’ offense came through when the chips were down in Tucson, but the late game heroics seem to have distracted most observers from the fact that the Wildcats contained Oregon throughout most of the second and third quarters.

For that stretch of the game, Arizona was able to do what no other team has done all year: shut down LaMichael James.

With that threat taken away, the Ducks were treading water. Only later in the game, when they were forced to respect the pass, did the Wildcats allow James to contribute again, and it cost them a victory.

The Beavers’ best bet on defense is to find a matchup against Jeremiah Masoli running the ball that they feel confident with, like the Wildcats had with their safeties, and have the rest of their defense concentrate on shutting down James. With their two leading rushers stymied, the Ducks would be forced to go to the air.

That isn’t as bad a situation for Oregon as it was before the start of Pac-10 play when Masoli was struggling with his throws.

But it is a much more manageable situation than having to deal with all the plays the Ducks can throw at a defense when the option runs are working.

Unlike last year, Oregon State comes into this game with both of the “Super Rodgers Brothers” ready to go. That alone could be the difference between victory and defeat, assuming the Beavers defense keeps the score manageable.

Oregon’s defense will have to step it up a notch if the Ducks hope to spoil their rivals’ finale once again. The past several weeks have seen Oregon’ weaknesses exploited by opponents, and these deficiencies need to be addressed in order to beat the Beavers.

The biggest concern for defensive coordinator Nick Allioti and company is finding a way to stop power runs. The Ducks have great overall speed on defense, but the line is undersized and Stanford, Arizona, and even Arizona State (in a limited way) had success when they ran inside, where they could seal off pursuit from the perimeter and simply bowl the athletic Oregon defenders backwards.

Oregon State has a good offensive line, and Jacquizz Rodgers excels going up the gut where he can hide behind his linemen and dart through the gaps. He isn’t as strong as Toby Gerhart, but he presents an entirely different set of challenges to would-be tacklers.

Complicating matters is that Sean Canfield and the Beavers passing game are the most productive in the Pac-10. Canfield is completing a staggering 70 percent of his passes, and with James Rodgers at his disposal, a big play is never far away.

If Oregon is to have success on defense, they must get Oregon State out of proper down and distance situations. This will allow the Ducks to use their speed and multiple blitz packages to pressure the quarterback and get their dynamic offense back on the field.

Assuming turnovers and special teams play are about even, the winning team will be the one that gets the most production out of their star running back.

If the Ducks can do that, it will lead to big plays from their spread formations.

If the Beavers can run well, they can grind out drives that will sap Oregon’s undersized defenders and let them break the game open late.

When it comes to the running game, physicality determines who will succeed. So it will all end up being decided by which team can get in the best hits.

In a rivalry like this, it should never be any other way.

MY CALL: Oregon Ducks 31, Oregon State Beavers 27

Oregon at Arizona: Will The Ducks Escape The 'Zona Zoo?

Tristan Holmes — Fri, 20 Nov 2009 20:02:54 -0500

I am a Ducks fan, and I am scared.

I am scared because I have seen this episode before, and it was one of my least favorites in the last several seasons of this gut wrenching show that is called “Oregon Football.”

Oregon is riding high and controls its own BCS destiny, but they have to play the Arizona Wildcats in Tucson.

The hairs on the back of my neck refuse to quit standing on end.

I still remember Kellen Clemens broken ankle in 2005. Dennis Dixon came into the game and immediately suffered a concussion. If it weren’t for “the pride of Cottage Grove” (linebacker Brent Haberly) and a fumble return for a touchdown the Ducks may well have lost. As it was they escaped 28-21.

Two years later Dixon returned at the head of a team ranked #2 in the nation and a favorite to win the Heisman trophy. But he completed a tear in his ACL that had originally been hurt the previous week. Oregon lost that game and the rest of its regular season matches.

Chip Kelly has done a good job downplaying the recent history of the Ducks trials in the desert. This is a good thing for the team because they have enough to worry about the here and now with this year’s Arizona team.

The Wildcats are unbeaten at home this year and both of Oregon’s losses have been on the road. Sophomore quarterback Nick Foles has revived Arizona’s offense while its typically accomplished defense has one of the most athletic front lines the Ducks have had to face all year.

The Ducks lost their opener at Boise State because the offense was completely inept. It took until the Pac—10 opener against Cal until this unit truly hit its stride, but it has been all but unstoppable as long as quarterback Jeremiah Masoli has been healthy.

Even when the offense has struggled, Oregon’s defense and special teams have generally covered the team’s back. That is except when they ran into Toby Gerhart, Andrew Luck, and Chris Owusu on the Farm. Stanford’s physical offense manhandled the athletic but undersized Duck defense to the tune of 51 points in the loss to the Cardinal.

Arizona was recently humbled against the Cal Golden Bears. Even without star running back Jahvid Best, the Bears were able to contain the Wildcats’ potent offense and overcame some mistakes by quarterback Kevin Riley to hand Arizona only their second loss in the Pac-10 conference.

But Arizona, just like Oregon, still controls its own destiny in the Pac-10 championship race. If either team wins the rest of their games, they will go to the Rose Bowl.

That is what makes this game so dangerous for the visiting Ducks.

The Wildcats have already had a letdown late in the season and will be fired up for this game as ESPN’s Game Day arrives for the first time in Tucson to see Arizona play for the opportunity at their first Rose Bowl in program history.

With such a motivated team as an opponent, there is no room for error for Oregon. The offense, defense, and special teams must all be productive to snatch a win from the Wildcats and set up what might turn out to be the biggest Civil War game in over fifty years.

The biggest concern for the Ducks offense is simply keeping their composure. As long as the offensive line plays at a high level and they avoid turnovers and penalties, there is not much that can put the brakes on Chip Kelly and Kurt Helfirch’s spread option offense.

Last week Arizona State had the best running defense in the conference but were gashed by Masoli, LaMichael James and the Ducks. As long as all the starters stay healthy and assignments are carried out, Oregon should still be able to pass just enough to keep Arizona honest and live off of the run.

But if the “’Zona zoo” gets to the Ducks, things could get dicey. A few bad plays could disrupt the rhythm and quick play calling that characterize Oregon’s offense. Any failed third down conversions will only exacerbate the problems the Ducks defense will have playing so many snaps.

The matchup with Foles, Nic Grigsby, and the Wildcats offense is the biggest concern for the Ducks. The one piece of good news (for Oregon’s defense, not for college football in general) is that Rob Gronkowski, otherwise known as the bane of Nick Allioti’s existence, will not play.

Stanford proved that as athletic as the Ducks are on defense, they are vulnerable to power running and sustained drives. Though they needed the help of turnovers, even the struggling Sun Devils offense was able to find success up the gut at Autzen last week.

The key for Oregon is for their front seven to find a way to get off of blocks and find penetration. When they get the opposition out of proper down and distance the Ducks can use their team speed and creative blitz packages to get pressure on Foles and get the ball back to their potent offense.

But if Arizona can find consistent gains on first and second down, they can use their power running game and efficient short passes to grind out drives and wear Oregon down without giving the green and yellow (and black, and chrome, and …) an opportunity to respond. The blitz happy Ducks must also beware being caught out of position against the Wildcats effective screen passing game.

After seeing how they performed on the road against Golden Bears, I would give Oregon the slight advantage in overall talent. But it is by a slim margin, and the Wildcats are different beasts when they are in the desert.

Like any game, it all comes down to turnovers. I include third down stops and big special teams plays in that formula as well as interceptions and lost fumbles. All four have the effect of changing field position, momentum, and time of possession.

If the Ducks are able to keep the momentum and put some distance between themselves and Mike Stoop’s Arizona team they should be able to hang on for the win. But if the game is close in the fourth quarter, the home field and efficient offense might let the Wildcats pull the upset.

I’m not going to tempt fate and even contemplate what might happen if a “_________ injury” occurs again.

MY CALL : Oregon Ducks 30, Arizona Wildcats 24

Oregon-Arizona State: Ducks Look to Exorcise the Sun Devils

Tristan Holmes — Sat, 14 Nov 2009 03:04:28 -0500

On the plus side, we don’t have to hear the endless debate about whether a one loss Oregon Ducks team should be ranked higher than the undefeated Boise State Broncos they lost to opening week.

That is, aside from a gutty second half performance by the offense, the only good news for Ducks fans from last week’s lost to the Stanford Cardinal.

Toby Gerhart blasted through the Ducks defense almost at will, and even when he wasn’t doing the work, Andrew Luck was able to find his receivers down field.

The bottom line for the Ducks is that last week they allowed Stanford’s offensive line to simply bully them. Whether it was making holes for Gerhart or keeping Luck upright, Oregon’s defense was consistently out-muscled.

The reaction to this loss from the Duck faithful has been uncharacteristically calm. After Boise State, and even after wins against Purdue and Utah when the offense struggled, there were calls for change. Chip Kelly coaching from the press box, Nate Costa starting at quarterback, and a dozen other plans were proposed.

But there has been no outcry following the defensive collapse that saw the Cardinal hang half a hundred on an Oregon team that some had been calling the hottest in the country.

Maybe it is because the game was a close shootout and Duck fans don’t mind losing so much when their team puts points on the board. Maybe it is because Oregon still controls its own destiny in the Pac-10 conference race. Maybe everyone remembers that no Pac-10 team has managed to go undefeated since the round robin schedule.

For fans, that might be the healthiest attitude to take. After all, this is a young team and losses do happen.

But for the Ducks sake, I hope the defense is angry. Arizona State may not be a contender in the conference race, but the Sun Devils played USC close at home and aren’t going to just roll over at Autzen.

Looking at the statistics, the Ducks offense played quite well on the farm. Key cogs Jeremiah Masoli and LaMichael James in particular put up big numbers. But Oregon only managed to score twice in the first half and dug a hole too deep to get out of.

The hubbub about the offense this week has been the reinstatement of suspended running back LaGarrette Blount. While a great storyline for this week’s game, big number 9 does not figure to see much playing time. With the emergence of James and Barner, and his coach’s own admission that he is not in “game shape,” Blount will not see action unless the Ducks build a big lead.

Against a defense as stout as the Sun Devils’, that will not be easy. Arizona State leads the conference in rushing defense, and Oregon’s spread option attack keys off of the run.

As good as the Sun Devils have been on defense, their offense has been consistently poor. True freshman quarterback Brock Osweiler took over for injured (and struggling) senior Danny Sullivan last week against USC.

The Sun Devils lost to the Trojans 14-9 and Osweiler’s numbers were not inspiring. He will be making his first start in a hostile Autzen stadium.

The Ducks defense, after serving as the bedrock for the team’s success all season, was anything but hostile last week. Out-muscled up front by the Cardinal’s offensive line, Oregon could not put the brakes on Stanford’s running game.

After losing senior corners Walter Thurmond III and Willie Glasper, the Ducks secondary had managed to hold up well but couldn’t contain Stanford’s receivers. Much of this success needs to be credited to the pressure that Oregon had been generating on opposing passers, something that was lacking last week.

Stanford is the only team in the conference that has a return game that is clearly superior to the Ducks. With Arizona State not presenting as much of a threat on returns, and Groza Award semi-finalist Morgan Flint handling the place kicking, don’t expect the Sun Devils to pull out a win with special teams play alone.

The biggest key for the Ducks in this game is to simply remain focused. Oregon has handled adversity this season following the Boise State debacle. But that was the first game of the year and they could legitimately look at the game and say if they had corrected their own errors, they would have had a shot.

The loss to Stanford is a different animal. Yes it was close, and had a few plays been made on the defensive side of the ball the end result might have been different.

But it wasn’t blown coverages or fumbles or bad snaps that beat the Ducks. No, it was a simple inability to stop the Cardinal’s offense. Whether running or passing, Stanford was simply better at their job than Oregon was last week.

The Ducks have used up their entire margin for error if they still want to determine their own fate in the Pac-10 conference race. One more loss could lead to convoluted tie-breaker scenarios with one of several possible teams, and the Ducks don’t hold the advantage in every situation.

Oregon can get back on track, but only if they don’t let the Cardinal beat them twice. The offense must continue to play at a high level and the turnover and special teams edge has to go the home team’s way to keep the Sun Devils from having a shot.

But more important than that is Oregon’s defense. Allioti’s unit must not allow last week’s performance to define them. This defense needs to get back to its strengths. That means getting off of blocks to use their speed to swarm to the football to make tackles, and getting pressure on the opposing quarterback.

Back in the friendly confines of Autzen Stadium, I expect the Ducks to rebound. That said; I learned my lesson last week about predicting double digit win margins. I’ll keep it modest and not tempt fate.

MY CALL : Oregon Ducks 31, Arizona State Sun Devils 24

Oregon-Stanford: Don't Count Your Roses Until They've Bloomed

Tristan Holmes — Thu, 05 Nov 2009 23:21:56 -0500

The catchy old poem commemorating Guy Fawkes' attempt to blow up Parliament begins, “Remember, remember the fifth of November.”

It is a pity for Ducks fans that “31st of October” and “remember” do not rhyme. “Eugene” does rhyme with “Halloween,” though, so maybe somebody can come up with something.

Unless you have been living under a rock, you know by now that Oregon inflicted the worst loss of the Pete Carroll era on USC last week to the tune of 47-20.

Throughout the first half both teams traded scores, but at halftime USC’s offense seemed to take an early flight back to Los Angeles, as the Ducks pulled away to give the Trojans their fourth consecutive loss in the state of Oregon.

There are many who believe this win signals the Ducks' usurpation of the Pac-10 throne that USC has occupied for seven consecutive seasons. Then again, pundits were saying the same thing in 2007, and Ducks fans still painfully remember how that worked out.

Having overcome the adversity of being embarrassed in their opener by Boise State, losing a marquee player to suspension, and dealing with season-ending injuries to two top corners, Oregon now has to deal with high expectations. The “O” logo on the Ducks' uniforms has now become a great yellow bull’s-eye to their remaining opponents, and Stanford gets the first shot.

The Cardinal looked like they might be making a conference title run themselves until setbacks against Oregon State and Arizona. Still, Stanford is undefeated at home this season and hungry for the wins that will get them back to a bowl game for the first time since 2001.

2001 was also the year an upset loss to the Cardinal cost Oregon a shot at the national title game. I didn’t attend that game in order to take the PSAT that Saturday. To this day I rue the decision to place academics over athletics that cost my team a shot at the crystal ball by not bringing my good luck to Autzen Stadium.

Superstitions aside, though, Stanford actually has the tools necessary to pull off the upset this weekend. It all starts up front with a beefy, skilled offensive line and bruising tailback Toby Gerhart.

The Cardinal run a good old-fashioned offense that pounds the ball with the run to set up the play action pass. It may be old-fashioned, but Jim Harbaugh has found a way to make it work on the Farm, with his team averaging 31.9 points per game.

The Ducks' defense has been outstanding all season, especially against the run, but against USC they did prove vulnerable to the power running game. Oregon has tremendous speed on defense but has an undersized defensive line. The Trojans were not consistent enough to exploit this potential weakness, but if Gerhart and company can stay on track throughout the game, things will get dicey for the Ducks.

It is vital for Stanford to gain most of their yards on the ground to keep Oregon’s offense on the sideline, because ever since conference play started that has been the only thing that has worked against Jeremiah Masoli and the Ducks. The “quack attack” took it to new levels on Halloween, driving into the red zone nine times on 11 possessions and scoring every time they got inside the 20.

The one thing Oregon’s offense can’t do this week is beat themselves. Turnovers, penalties, and failing to convert on third downs will give a Cardinal offense that is already likely to lead the Ducks in time of possession a chance to bleed even more clock and wear down Oregon’s defense.

For the Ducks to assure themselves of a win in Palo Alto, their best bet is to take the lead early and hold on to it. The Cardinal do not run an offense with great comeback potential. The bigger a lead Oregon can get, the more Stanford will have to move away from their bread and butter, the power run.

The Ducks have all they need to get this done, assuming they don’t start drinking their own Kool-Aid now that they are being proclaimed the lords of the West. As long as Oregon’s offense avoids miscues and injuries to key personnel, they are all but unstoppable. The quicker the pace of this game, the more likely it is to turn into the kind of shootout that the Cardinal simply don’t have the firepower to win.

The Ducks' defense needs to be opportunistic. Turnovers and third down stops will get them off the field in order to stay fresh in the late game, when Gerhart’s power running would otherwise take over.

Upsets don’t happen without big plays by the underdogs that steal momentum away from the favorites. The good news for the Ducks is that Stanford’s defense doesn’t get many takeaways, and their offense won’t take yardage in chunks.

Special teams are a different matter entirely. It is rare a team can be said to be more dangerous in this phase than Oregon, but with Chris Owusu returning kicks, the argument can be made for the Cardinal.

The Ducks cannot afford to let special teams play become an advantage for Stanford—not only will it cause momentum swings that will let the Cardinal feed off the home crowd’s energy, but also because good field position (be it from special teams plays or miscues by Oregon’s offense) could do a lot to mitigate Stanford’s inability to score quickly.

Last year these two teams' running games battered one another back and forth before the Ducks scored in the final seconds to seal the victory. Two years ago the Cardinal led by 10 at halftime before Oregon regrouped to win going away.

It doesn’t matter how many accolades the Ducks have received since beating USC. With Harbaugh coaching them, the Cardinal are not going to roll over and give Oregon this game. The Ducks will have to take it from them.

MY CALL: Oregon Ducks 40, Stanford Cardinal 20

Oregon vs. USC: Ducks Look To Trick the Trojans and Treat Autzen

Tristan Holmes — Fri, 30 Oct 2009 03:07:26 -0400

It is official; Ducks fans can say the forbidden words: “USC Trojans.”

Ever since Oregon’s breakout victory against Cal, we’ve been telling ourselves “don’t get ahead of yourself,” “they have to concentrate on WSU/UCLA/Washington,” “let’s wait and see.”

The wait is over.

After being thoroughly embarrassed in every possible way a football team can be against Boise State, the Oregon Ducks have managed six consecutive victories and stand alone at the top of the Pac-10 conference.

The ever talented USC Trojans, meanwhile, followed up an impressive come-from-behind victory at Ohio State with a head scratching loss to Washington in Seattle. Starting quarterback Matt Barkley, the only question mark on offense coming into the season, has fully recovered from injuries that sidelined him during that game.

There are no two ways about it: If Oregon wants a chance at dethroning the seven-time champions, they have to bring their A+ game in every phase. If any of the offense, defense, or special teams struggles, the favored Trojans will have the inside track to an eighth straight Pac-10 title.

USC’s reloading defense has shown some warts in recent weeks against Notre Dame and Oregon State. Jimmy Clausen and Sean Canfield both had more than 300 yards passing against the Trojans.

But the Ducks run a spread offense that revolves around running the ball first. USC has been lights out against opposing rushers all season, giving up less than 80 yards per game.

The Trojans have also fared well historically against Oregon’s spread, having never allowed more than 24 points to the Ducks since they implemented the new style in 2005. Of course, as fans on both sides remember, those 24 points were enough two years ago.

One weakness that USC’s defense showed last week was in covering the tight end; Oregon State’s Joe Halahuni had over 100 yards receiving. With Ed Dickson and David Paulsen showing themselves to be the most reliable receivers the Ducks have, don’t be surprised to see Chip Kelly calling their numbers early and often Saturday night.

The biggest problem the Oregon offense has to address is lingering issues with the shotgun snap. Jordan Holmes has had a tendency to hike the ball high over his quarterback’s head. Masoli isn’t very tall to begin with, and high snaps can result in fumbles on bad exchanges.

Even if the quarterback gathers the ball in and avoids a turnover, bad snaps disrupt the timing of a play. Against a defense as fast as the Trojans,’ the Ducks need every edge they can get. A bad snap may mean the difference between a five-yard gain and a one-yard loss.

Despite injuries in the secondary, Oregon’s defense has surprised many this season by not allowing a single Pac-10 opponent more than 20 points. But the USC offense they will face on Halloween has the best offensive line and some of the most talented ball handlers they will play against all year, and that could be the difference.

Oregon has lived off of pressuring the passer during their recent winning streak. The Ducks’ secondary has done well given the circumstances, but it remains to be seen how they would perform against a quarterback who didn’t have defenders in his face all night.

To slow down the Trojans, Oregon has to find a way to continue to get pressure on the quarterback. But with USC’s offensive line as good it is they will have to be more creative about how they do it.

Nick Allioti won’t be able to just throw five and six defenders at Barkley and hope for the best. He must bring different players from different directions and never use the same package twice.

Hopefully this approach will see Trojans blockers miss an assignment or two at some point, but the biggest affect could be on Barkley. As talented and composed as he has shown himself to be, he is still a freshman. If the Ducks are coming at him from all directions, it might make him just uncomfortable enough to throw a bad pass in a critical situation.

Oregon has gotten big lifts this year from its special teams. If they get another special teams touchdown against USC it could be the difference between victory and defeat. But the Trojans are no special teams slouches with dangerous returner Damian Williams and a reliable kicker.

If Oregon wants to pull off the upset, it all comes down to turnovers. The Ducks have thrived on big momentum swings all year and they will need them against an opponent like USC.

When they do get opportunities against the Trojans, the Ducks must score touchdowns. The Beavers were doomed by three drives that only came up with field goals in the first half. Oregon can’t afford to make the same mistake.

With an offense that can beat you with by leaning on so many different personnel, the Ducks best hope of stopping the Trojans is to go for the lynchpin of it all and get after the quarterback.

Oregon must also improve their tackling from last week, when they allowed Washington’s Chris Polk to go over 100 yards rushing. Whiffing on Allen Bradford and Joe McKnight won’t just result in yards, it will be six points.

USC’s best strategy is to concentrate on the running game, both on offense and defense. If the Trojans can push around the Duck’s athletic but smaller defensive line they can grind out drives and take the crowd out of the game. Oregon’s offense keys off of the run, if USC can stop that then Masoli and the Ducks’ receivers might not be able to pick up the slack.

It has been a long time since Pete Carroll’s team lost a marquee matchup, but it has happened before and it can happen again. A win will require the utmost from each and every player Oregon puts on the field.

No matter what happens in this game, on Halloween night you can be sure of one thing:

“Autzen’ll be rockin.’”

MY CALL : Oregon Ducks 31, USC Trojans 30

Oregon at Washington: Ducks Look To Put Down the Dawgs

Tristan Holmes — Thu, 22 Oct 2009 01:23:15 -0400

From a fan’s perspective, there is one good thing you can say about Oregon’s bye week.

It is almost over.

While “quack heads” like me were getting as antsy without Ducks football as a northwesterner after more than two consecutive days of sunny weather, Oregon’s football team was using to time off to try and get key players healthy for this Saturday’s showdown in Seattle.

Two weeks ago, Nate Costa, who, at one time, was seen as the successor to Dennis Dixon, made his first collegiate start at the Rose Bowl against UCLA. Oregon’s offense only scored 10 points (the only touchdown coming off of a short field after a Bruins fumble) and Costa tossed an ill-advised pass that was caught in the end zone for a SportsCenter worthy interception.

But the Ducks defense made a goal-line stand and had a “pick six” of their own. Combined with Kenjon Barner’s kickoff return to begin the third quarter Oregon did all it needed to outlast a UCLA squad still looking for any offensive consistency.

The Ducks are coming off a bye week that will hopefully see quarterback Jeremiah Masoli (knee) and safety TJ Ward (ankle) back from injuries. Neither is certain to play, however, Oregon’s weekly press release has “Masoli or Costa” listed as the starter while Ward appears behind John Boyett on the depth chart.

Oregon will look to continue their current five-game win streak over the Dawgs, the longest winning streak for the Ducks in the history of series. But despite Oregon’s recent dominance, there are a number of factors that could point toward a possible upset.

The first is that the Huskies have the home field advantage. While Washington’s teams have not lived up to the facility in recent seasons, Husky Stadium is still one of the most raucous in the country. New head coach Steve Sarkisian has found a way to harness this advantage in leading the Huskies to a 3-1 home record this year.

The only loss was a close one in the first week of the season to LSU, and one of the wins was against USC.

The other factor in Washington’s favor is that this is a rivalry game, when statistics and rankings can often be misleading. Make no mistake, the Husky faithful are sick and tired of being upstaged by smaller “Nike University” to the south,and would relish a chance to regain their old dominance of this series.

UW’s offense still sinks or swims with star quarterback Jake Locker. “West Coast Tebow” is tough to tackle and has deceptive acceleration to get to the edge when he tucks the ball and runs. But in Sarkisian’s new pro-set offense he has grown as a passer this year.

How Oregon’s defense handles Locker will determine whether or not the Huskies have a shot at the upset. The Ducks’ secondary is thin after losing two senior corners for the season. While the replacements have fared well, much of this can be attributed to the front seven’s ability to consistently pressure the quarterbacks of Cal, Washington State, and UCLA.

If Washington keeps the Ducks pass rush at bay it is questionable how well their secondary can hold up. Even when the Ducks get pressure, they cannot allow any routes of escape; otherwise Locker could hurt them with his mobility. How well Oregon pressures Locker will determine how much they can contain the Huskies.

On offense the Ducks would seem to enjoy the advantage as they lead the conference in rushing offense (even factoring in “the game we don’t speak of”), while Washington is ninth in rushing defense. The Ducks spread offense keys off of the running game, and to beat the Huskies it is imperative that they keep producing on the ground.

A lot of fans probably remember the last game these two teams played in Seattle when Dennis Dixon and Jonathon Stewart led the Ducks to set the school record for rushing yards in a game. What a lot of Duck fans tend to gloss over is that the score was tied at 31 all at the beginning of the fourth quarter before Oregon finally pulled away.

While the Ducks' runners have looked solid all year and have the opportunity to gash what has been up until now a weak Washington rush defense, the state of Oregon’s passing game is suspect. Nate Costa made a single glaring error in his first start two weeks ago (the aforementioned interception), but made up for it by keeping a drive alive in the third quarter when he evaded the rush and found David Paulsen on third down.

Still, Costa seemed to lack the same chemistry with his receivers that Jeremiah Masoli had finally developed against Cal and Washington State. Even if Masoli does start there is no way of knowing whether he will be able to regain his pre-injury form immediately or will backslide to where he was against Boise State, Purdue, and Utah.

No matter who is throwing the ball for the Ducks, it is imperative that they keep tight end Ed Dickson in their sights. Dickson is leading Oregon in every major receiving category by a large margin. As potent a weapon as he is, it would behoove the Ducks to try to get their other receivers more involved so that teams cannot key on Dickson to shut down the passing game.

On special teams, both Washington and Oregon feature reliable kickers. The Huskies have better stats in both punt coverage and punt returns, but Oregon has shown the ability to break big kickoff returns. This phase of the game seems fairly even, with the slight edge going to Washington.

For the Ducks to keep their winning streak against the Huskies going, they must run the ball effectively and keep Locker under control. Oregon cannot allow momentum-swing plays on the road (turnovers, returns, etc.).

Washington leads the conference in third-down conversions, and if the Ducks defense is forced into another marathon game like some they played earlier this year Locker and the Huskies offense will find a way to make them pay. Oregon must make the plays that will keep momentum on their side and neutralize the home field energy that Washington will be counting on.

As big as the questions are a quarterback for the Ducks, the combination of a great running game and a defense that has answered every challenge they have faced this year makes me think Oregon can win it.

That is, assuming the Ducks aren’t looking ahead. Their next opponent knows all about what happens when you underestimate Sarkisian’s Huskies...

MY CALL : Oregon Ducks 31, Washington Huskies 21

Oregon-UCLA: Injuries Will Play a Big Role in Pasadena

Tristan Holmes — Fri, 09 Oct 2009 02:54:10 -0400

Last Saturday at Autzen Stadium we learned a lot. But almost none of it was about the Oregon Ducks.

Oregon followed up its eye-opening upset victory over then-No. 6 Cal by lambasting a rebuilding Washington State squad 52-6. The Cougars simply looked outmatched at nearly every position, and their gutty performance against USC now feels like an aberration.

But a “minor” knee injury suffered by starting quarterback Jeremiah Masoli late in the first half has turned out to be more serious than expected, and the team may have to play at the Rose Bowl without him.

The situation was compounded when senior cornerback Willie Glasper, replacement for the injured Walter Thurmond III, was lost for the season to a knee injury in practice this week.

The Ducks have a bye week coming up, but if they want to keep this season’s momentum going, their reserves will have to step up against UCLA.

The Bruins seemed to be on a roll themselves until they ran into Stanford. Toby Gerhart and the Cardinal ran over UCLA to hand them their first loss of the season.

Beating an Oregon team that, like the Cardinal, is considered to be a front runner in the early running for the Pac-10 title could turn the Bruins' season on its head, this time for the better.

Nobody on UCLA’s side will shed a tear if Masoli misses this game. Last year the Bruins defense was unable to deal with his mobility, allowing Masoli 170 yards on 24 rushes. Though UCLA held the Oregon passing game in check, the ground game was just enough for the Ducks to get the edge, 31-24.

No matter who lines up under center for the Ducks, their offense will key off of the running game as it has all season. The Bruins had looked stout against the run until last week. If Oregon’s offensive line can be as successful blocking against UCLA as the Cardinal was, the Bruins won’t have much of a chance.

Then again, with one of the league’s premier defensive linemen, Brian Price, leading the charge for UCLA, that is more easily said than done.

The key for the Ducks offense is to retain their balance, no matter who starts under center. Nate Costa has looked good in mop-up time, but he will have to conjure up the same chemistry with his receivers that Masoli was finally starting to build to prevent the Bruins from loading the box.

Injuries have taken their toll on both teams. UCLA may be without the services of star safety Rahim Moore, a less than rosy prospect given the number of players the Ducks have who can make plays in the open field.

The Ducks come into the game in far worse shape. Free safety T.J. Ward is listed as second string this week in Oregon’s media guide as he continues to nurse an ankle injury he suffered the first week of the season against Boise State. His status for this week’s game remains uncertain.

Of greater concern is the loss of two senior cornerbacks to season-ending injuries. With Glasper injured in practice this week, there are only three available corners listed on the Ducks' two-deep roster.

The question is whether UCLA can take advantage of the Ducks' depleted secondary. The Bruins have their own concerns at quarterback, with Kevin Prince still recovering from a broken jaw suffered against Tennessee and his status for this week’s game, like Masoli’s, uncertain.

Oregon’s defense has pleasantly surprised Duck fans all season. But the loss of so much experience in the secondary could make them vulnerable to big plays.

The question facing Oregon defensive coordinator Nick Aliotti is how to deal with these changes. Do the Ducks start playing more defenders in coverage and only sending three or four players on the rush, or do they start blitzing more often to get pressure on the quarterback?

There are disadvantages to either strategy, but UCLA is not terribly strong at the quarterback position no matter who makes the start (Kevin Craft actually has a better stat line over two games this season than Prince does). With that in mind, pressure might be the way to go until the Bruins show they can take advantage of single coverage.

UCLA’s defense has carried the team all year, and to upset the Ducks they must do so again. With an offense that has yet to find a rhythm, the Bruins defense must get turnovers and keep the score close for UCLA to have a chance. The Bruins won’t win in a shootout.

While Oregon seems like the more complete team at this point in the season, the fact remains that this is the Ducks' first game away from Autzen Stadium since the debacle against Boise State. If the Ducks lose their focus at the Rose Bowl, the Bruins' stifling defense and the energy that a team can only find when it is the underdog might be just enough to overcome any difference in overall talent.

If the Ducks can find the players to take care of business in Los Angeles, they have a bye week to try to get healthy before venturing north to play Washington. This game is critical to keep Oregon’s season on course as the conference race starts to take on its ultimate shape.

Assuming they avoid the classic recipes for losing on the road—turnovers and mistakes on special teams—I like the Ducks' depth to allow them to go toe-to-toe with the similarly wounded Bruins. But as a longtime Oregon fan, I know to weigh expectations to the side of modesty.

MY CALL: Oregon Ducks 24, UCLA Bruins 20

WSU at Oregon: Chip Kelly's Crew Goes Cougar Hunting on Saturday Night

Tristan Holmes — Thu, 01 Oct 2009 03:21:58 -0400

So that is what a passing game is supposed to look like.

Last week the Oregon thumped then-No. 6 Cal 42-3 in a dominating performance where everything came together for this young but promising team.

Whether it was the re-emergence of seemingly ignored tight end Ed Dickson, the efficiency of oft-maligned quarterback Jeremiah Masoli, or the defense holding Jahvid Best to only 55 yards rushing everything turned out just Ducky last Saturday.

The dark cloud within this silver lining was the injury to cornerback Walter Thurmond III on the opening kickoff. A dangerous kick returner and lock down corner that was expected to receive post-season accolades and be an early round pick in the coming NFL draft, Thurmond has undergone season ending surgery to repair damage to his knee.

Expectations are soaring again for Oregon fans after the big win over Cal. The Ducks will complete a four game home stretch this week against Washington State, a team almost unanimously picked to finish last in the Pac-10 conference.

After going 2-11 last year, with wins over FCS Portland State and winless Washington, the Cougars endured several early season setbacks before beating Southern Methodist in overtime. WSU comes off a loss to USC at the Coliseum, but managed to keep the score much closer than most had expected they would.

So this week the Ducks come in as the much ballyhooed flavor of the week in the Pac-10. Against them is a young, plucky Cougar team that has been given a spark by a freshman quarterback and shown surprising resilience in the face of adversity.

The words “trap game” spring to mind.

The last thing Oregon can afford to do is fail to take WSU seriously, because as dominant as their performance was against Cal there is still room for improvement.

The Duck’s special teams have been erratic so far this season. Thurmond was a dangerous returner (his punt return for a touchdown turned out to be the difference against Utah) but also had a couple of fumbles to his credit.

The Ducks have also been plagued by penalties on return plays and have allowed a punt to be blocked at various points this season. It is imperative the Ducks avoid negative momentum changing plays on special teams because with the loss of Thurmond they have much less ability to affect positive swings in this phase of the game.

Thurmond’s absence will also be keenly felt on defense. Nick Alliotti will no longer be able to leave one corner on an island with total confidence. With starting free safety TJ Ward questionable for Saturday as he continues to recover from a high ankle sprain suffered opening week, Washington State’s new passer Jeff Tuel may face a Ducks secondary with no returning starters from last season.

Oregon kept Cal’s offense in check even without the services of Thurmond and Ward. True, Golden Bears quarterback Kevin Riley missed his share of open receivers. But part of the reason he had so little success was the Ducks ability to apply pressure throughout the game.

With the loss of Thurmond, a good pass rush becomes even more critical for Oregon’s defense to continue to shut down their opponents. With Tuel being a true freshman making his first start in a hostile Autzen stadium, expect Alliotti to bring the heat early and often to prevent the Cougars from exploiting the Ducks secondary.

After weeks of obscurity, the Ducks passing game came to life against Cal and combined with the solid ground attack proved impossible for the Bears defense to stop.

Oregon’s running back committee continues to impress, with LaMichael James leading the way. As the young offensive line has improved its blocking over the course of the season, the Ducks’ runners have made the most of their opportunities and all have demonstrated the ability to make defenders miss.

As impressive as the running game was last week, the story against Cal was the resurrection of Oregon’s passing game. Jeremiah Masoli completed 21 of 25 passes for 253 yards with 3 touchdowns and no interceptions. 11 of those completions and all three touchdown passes went to tight end Ed Dickson, whose true potential finally shown through with a career high 148 yards receiving.

Whether it was Masoli simply making it a point to find Dickson on his reads or a change in the play calling, the emergence of Dickson elevated the performance of the entire offense. With defenses now having to worry about Dickson on every play, opportunities emerge for the Ducks other pass catchers to have break out games of their own.

Despite all the positives, turnovers have continued to plague the Oregon offense. Had Cal not been so willing to return the favor last week, the game would surely have been much closer.

The biggest problem for the Ducks to address this week is the continuing issues with the shotgun snap from center Jordon Holmes to the quarterback. Masoli has regularly had to either jump at balls going over his head or gather in snaps that have gone off to the side. In several instances this has led to bad exchanges with running backs.

This isn’t the only time ball handling has been an issue. Oregon’s first touchdown drive in the third quarter seemed to sap what little life the Golden Bears had in them, but it almost gave them their second wind when Dickson nearly fumbled (he was ruled down on the field and the replays seemed inconclusive) and a forward pitch past the line of scrimmage was ruled a fumble.

For Washington State to pull off the upset, they must give Tuel time against the Ducks pass rush to try to take advantage of the injuries in Oregon’s secondary. On defense they must find schemes that allow them to contain the Duck’s running game while forcing Masoli to beat them with the deep ball instead of with the shorter routes and screen passes that worked so well against Cal.

If the Ducks’ defense continues to play at a high level, Masoli and Dickson avoid regressing after their breakout performance and Oregon’s ball handling improves this week’s game has the makings of a blowout. But if the Ducks fail in any of these areas a few lucky turnovers could give the Cougars a chance to continue this season’s trend of big upsets.

After all, there is a reason they actually bother to play all the games.

MY CALL: Oregon Ducks 31, Washington State Cougars 17

Cal at Oregon: The Ducks Look to Spring a Bear Trap

Tristan Holmes — Thu, 24 Sep 2009 03:05:20 -0400

Oregon snapped the longest active winning streak in the nation at sixteen games last week by beating Utah 31-24 at Autzen Stadium. With LaMichael James leading a resurgent running game, the Ducks seem to have finally put the Boise State debacle and the loss of LaGarrette Blount behind them.

Good thing too, because there are more than enough problems to keep Chip Kelly and the team busy.

Coming into the season, many were looking at this week’s game between the Ducks and the Golden Bears to determine who would challenge USC for the Pac-10 title. Cal seems to have upheld their end of the bargain. They have dominated FCS Eastern Washington, thumped Maryland, and pulled away from Minnesota in the fourth quarter to gain a top ten ranking.

The Ducks however have managed to squeak by Purdue and Utah after laying an egg on the blue turf and come into the game an unranked underdog.

The biggest concern for the Ducks this week is without a doubt their lackluster passing game. Fans and pundits alike have called for Jeremiah Masoli’s benching. This follows his dismal performance against the Utes, 4-16 for no touchdowns, an interception. As well as two lost fumbles.

After finally blossoming against Arizona last year Masoli became a true dual threat QB, able to beat defenses with both his feet and his arm. Indeed, after impressive outings against Oregon State and Oklahoma State some were touting him as a dark horse Heisman Trophy candidate.

How quickly things change.

Masoli seems to have regressed to the player he was earlier last season. In 2008 his worst performance as a passer was on a rainy day in Berkeley. His 7-21 passing numbers contributed to an inept offensive showing and an Oregon loss, despite a tour de force performance by the defense which netted five turnovers.

A similar defensive performance this Saturday at Autzen will be hard to come by. A year ago Cal’s passing game had problems of its own. However, with Nate Longshore no longer breathing down his back Kevin Riley has been able to complement the dynamite running game led by Jahvid Best and Shane Vereen. The Bears seem to have finally found the offensive balance they have been lacking the past few years.

The Duck’s defense has risen to the occasion over the past few weeks, scoring two touchdowns against Purdue and holding the Utes offense to only 17 points. With the offense still finding its groove, Oregon can’t afford to get drawn into a shootout this week.

Despite Riley’s improvement, this Cal offense still keys off of Best. Keeping him contained is defenses’ priority number one. Oregon will have a much better shot at doing so if safety TJ Ward is able to return from an ankle injury suffered against the Broncos.

The Ducks’ most important job on defense is simply to stop big plays. Both of Utah’s offensive touchdowns last week came on defensive breakdowns that allowed 20+ yards gained. If Oregon’s defenders can keep Best in front of them and not get burned by Cal’s receivers downfield, they can keep the game within reach.

Despite a thrilling punt return by Walter Thurmond III in the first quarter, the Ducks special teams continued to show warts against the Utes. A blocked punt led to Utah’s only touchdown of the first half, and Jackson Rice never looked comfortable again. Thurmond also muffed a punt later in the game that gave Utah a short field.

Cal’s return teams have not been overly impressive so far this season. If Oregon’s special teams can avoid the costly errors they made against Purdue and Utah the Duck’s will have the advantage in this phase. Against a team like Cal, the Ducks need to take any advantage they can get.

Oregon found the successor to Blount and Jeremiah Johnson as LaMichael James stepped out into the limelight with a 152 yard day against Utah. Combined with Masoli’s scrambling ability and a maturing offensive line that has improved its run blocking the past couple of weeks, the Duck’s running game has shown it has the tools to regain the form it showed last year.

All of which means that Oregon’s chances against Cal most likely come down to Masoli and the passing game. For the Duck’s offense to take flight, Masoli has to do the hardest thing possible for a struggling QB being vilified by the fans to do:

He has to relax.

Masoli has not looked comfortable throwing the ball all season. He has allowed himself to get “happy feet” too often and his throwing motion has been off. Last week ESPN cameras showed an exasperated Chip Kelly miming “flick it, flick it!” after a missed throw on fourth down to tight end Ed Dickson.

As much as Masoli needs to do for the Ducks to win, he has to realize that he cannot try to do it all himself.

He has to remember that keeping the QB upright is the OL's job. He can’t always be moving around willy nilly just in case the rush is coming. All he can do is go through his reads, step up if he feels pressure, and get rid of the ball if the play has taken too long.

He has to have faith that his receivers will make a play if the ball is catchable. With Jeff Maehl and Jamere Holland both having dropped several catchable passes this season, that is easier said than done. However, trying to do the receivers job for them only leads to Masoli “guiding” the ball and messing up his release, making their job tougher in the end.

Masoli also has to start going through his progressions more. He has had a bad habit this season of staring down his receivers. He has to realize that it is not his job to use his impressive arm strength to force the ball to his primary target, but rather to find the open man and get them the ball so they can do their job.

The Ducks offensive play calling will be key to building up Masoli’s confidence in this game. Start with simple plays that will let the QB and receivers find a rhythm, WR screens or short hitches. Even if it doesn’t work on first down Oregon can still run the ball well enough to move the chains.

Following the the Ducks struggles throwing the ball, Cal will no doubt start the game by loading the box and daring Oregon to beat them with the pass. The Ducks must take advantage of single coverage and force the Bears to respect the pass.

While it will sound like a broken record, the best way to start this process is to get the ball to Ed Dickson. He has the stickiest hands on the team and is a mismatch for the LB's who are normally assigned to him in coverage.

Cal has been playing crisp, almost mistake free ball for the first three weeks of the season. It will be hard to be that composed at Autzen, but if the Ducks want to end a three year losing streak to the Bears they will need to elevate their own execution to a higher standard than they have shown all year.

If Masoli calms down and starts enjoying the game he can have the kind of renaissance performance he did last year against Arizona. If he can find his mojo again, and Oregon can come out on the right side of the turnover differential, the Ducks have a chance to break the spell Cal has had over them for far too long.

MY CALL: Oregon Ducks 38, California Golden Bears 35

Utah at Oregon: Can the Ducks Get Their Wins in a Row?

Tristan Holmes — Thu, 17 Sep 2009 03:52:38 -0400

Well, it certainly wasn’t pretty. But after what happened the Thursday before the Ducks were willing to take a 38-36 victory over Purdue.

Oregon’s offense played most of the game as poorly as they had the week before, managing only ten points in the first half. A pair of defensive touchdowns kept the game close despite Purdue’s impressive offensive output of 451 yards.

Late in the third quarter, LaMichael James running seemed to finally spark the offense as they scored two touchdowns (one on a third and twenty counter run by Kenjon Barner). Oregon’s defense wore down as the game went on and Purdue scored a touchdown late on a halfback pass.

But a lucky blocked PAT meant the Boilermakers were behind by two. Purdue went for the 2 point conversion but the receiver came down with the pass out of the end zone and the Duck’s survived.

Though not nearly as close as the nail biter at Autzen, the Utah Utes are coming off what many considered a subpar performance as they were unable to pull away from San Jose State until the fourth quarter.

Though Utah State and the Spartans are not elite competition, Utah has shown it is still a force to be reckoned with after losing so many starters from last year’s undefeated Sugar Bowl championship team.

Both teams come into this weekend with plenty of room for improvement. Oregon’s offense performed better against Purdue than it did in Boise, but was still far from the well tuned instrument it was at the end of last season. The defense was forced to play more than eighty snaps and almost let the Boilermaker’s force overtime.

The Utes meanwhile have been unable to stay on the good side of the turnover differential. Utah has also not scored as many points as one would expect given their total offensive yards.

This Saturday is a pivotal game for both teams. The Ducks managed to avoid going into a tailspin against Purdue, but have not played at the level fans and the media were expecting of them before the beginning of the season.

Utah is as talented as either of the teams the Ducks have played so far this season, and will have the same kind of motivation the Broncos did. For Oregon to pull out a win, they must improve in every facet of the game from last week.

The two defensive touchdowns scored by the Ducks kept the game within reach while the offense struggled to find itself. If Oregon hopes to start a winning streak against Utah, the defense will have to make these kinds of big plays again.

With the pace of Oregon’s offense, it is inevitable that the Duck’s defense will be on the field for a lot of plays and give up significant yardage. For Oregon to win though, all that yardage cannot lead to points.

To accomplish this, Nick Alliotti’s defense must continue to force turnovers early and often. It is imperative that the Ducks get stops when they do manage to get an opponent in a third down situation. Both of these things will allow them to get off the field and save their strength for critical drives at the end of games.

After struggling mightily, Oregon’s offense finally found a bit of a running game late against the Boilermakers. In Chip Kelly’s spread scheme, the run game sets up everything the offense does. Unless the young offensive line can continue to mature and the running back committee makes some plays the offense will continue to force the defense to carry the team.

Jeremiah Masoli was impressive running the ball last week, but he cannot do it alone. Utah has been stingy against the run so far this year. But the Ducks aren’t a team that can live off of their passing game alone. They must find success on the ground if they want to win.

Said passing game has been maddeningly inconsistent for Oregon. Masoli’s primary targets, Jeff Maehl and Jamere Holland, both made big plays with runs after the catch last week. But the key words there are “after the catch,” and both have battled “the dropsies” this season.

The Duck’s most consistent pass catcher, tight end Ed Dickson, has so far been an almost non-factor with only three catches in two games. Getting the ball in this big, athletic player’s hands will provide an added wrinkle defenses must account for and create opportunities for Oregon’s other ball handlers.

At only 5’11”, Masoli may have trouble finding Dickson when he runs traditional tight end routes in the middle of the field. The Ducks must try to find creative ways to get him the ball, be it lining him up wide or moving the pocket so Masoli has a better view of where he is running his route.

Four special teams penalties last week put both the offense and defense in tough positions. Oregon’s coverage units have been solid this year, and the team boasts dangerous return men. But unless they can clean up their execution, such assets will continue to be of limited use.

The winner of this week’s game will be the team that does the best job of improving the areas they have had difficulty with in their first two games. For the Ducks, that means consistency on offense and limiting the opponents time of possession. For the Utes, that means forcing turnovers and having success in the red zone.

Despite Oregon's struggles this year Utah comes into Autzen as the underdog. It is a position they have thrived in before. The Utes will be fired up to put themselves in the conversation with BYU, TCU, and Boise State as party crashers.

Oregon has the talent to put an end to any talk of a repeat BCS bid for Utah. But to prove the Boise State game was an aberration, the Ducks must play with great intensity, poise, and a chip on their shoulder.

THE CALL: Oregon Ducks 28, Utah Utes 27

Purdue at Oregon: What's in a Boilermaker, Anyway?

Tristan Holmes — Thu, 10 Sep 2009 02:14:15 -0400

Was it really only a week ago?

It seems like forever and a day.

Oregon’s season was full of promise. The Duck’s were going to avenge last year’s only loss on their home field. The Chip Kelly era was going to start with a bang, an offensive shootout for the ages.

A few hours later, it was all over. A game, a coaching debut, and a collegiate career.

I’m not going to say anything more about LaGarrette Blount and the aftermath of last week’s game. I’ve already chipped in my two cents about that. This article is only going to be about football.

There is plenty of football to talk about. Perhaps the only silver lining the Ducks could take away from Boise (which I learned this past week is officially pronounced boy-see, not boy-zee) was that their defense actually played fairly well.

To be sure, the Broncos left a lot of points on the field. They suffered from critical turnovers and two missed field goals. But the run defense, Oregon’s biggest question mark coming into the season with three new defensive linemen who were lacking in bulk, held the Broncos to under three yards per carry.

This is even more impressive considering the defense was on the field for more than 40 game minutes, and nearly 25 game minutes in the first half.

The pass defense wasn’t “lock down” but it certainly wasn’t awful. After carving Oregon’s defense into deli thin slices at Autzen last year, Kellen Moore went 19-29 for 197 yards and a touchdown. Once again, there were a lot of mistakes made by the Broncos themselves that kept those numbers low, but any time a team runs that many plays on a defense and has less than 200 yards passing it is an accomplishment.

A repeat performance against a multi-dimensional Purdue offense will be a hard to come by if TJ Ward, last year’s leading tackler and a veteran presence in the secondary, cannot go. He was held out of practice Monday and is questionable for Saturday. If he can’t go, his backup is a freshman. Then again, the Ducks did OK without him in the second half on the blue turf.

While the defense held its own, Oregon’s offense seemed to have missed the flight. The running game was non-existent, turnovers were committed, and it took the Ducks more than a half to get a first down. They ended up with only one; I repeat one, third down conversion in 10 tries and no fourth down conversions in two tries.

With Blount gone, this offense will run almost entirely through Jeremiah Masoli. But he has to realize that it isn’t his job to do it by himself. Last week, he seemed to be trying to force plays, and it never worked out well. The spread option is about taking what the defense gives you, not staring down receivers or deciding who needs to get the ball before even seeing the defensive alignment.

The Ducks' offensive line endured the growing pains we all knew the young unit would. While the pass protection was consistent, there was far too much penetration on most of the runs the Duck’s tried. This may have been exaggerated by Blount not being in top shape after the off season, but it was still not good to see a team that lives off the run allowing defenders into the backfield.

Purdue comes off a solid victory against Toledo in their opener. A prolific offensive performance covered for a defense that surrendered 31 points and 493 total yards. Running back Ralph Bolden was stupendous for the Boilermakers, running for 234 yards on only 21 carries with 2 touchdowns. His running mate Jaycen Taylor wasn’t shabby either, gaining 81 yards on 14 carries and another pair of scores.

Last year, the Ducks offense struggled in West Lafayette for most of the game and allowed the Boilermakers to build a 20-3 lead in the second quarter. But a critical punt return in the third quarter started a comeback for Oregon, and a pair of missed field goals cost Purdue a chance to pull the upset.

For Oregon to sweep the series, the offense has to get back on track. Without Blount, the running game will rely on smaller, speedier backs LaMichael James, Andre Crenshaw, and Kenjon Barner. Remene Alston is in the midst of academic trouble, leaving the Ducks with no room for injuries. In fact, Darron Thomas has been practicing with the runners this week just in case.

But the young backs have a lot of promise, and Crenshaw is a proven senior. For the Ducks' offense to improve they must get their bread and butter, the read option running game, going again. They have the runners in the backfield to do it, be it Masoli or his mates. But the offensive line must improve on their run blocking from last week.

The Ducks pass protection was quite good on Thursday but Masoli never looked comfortable on the blue turf. The Duck’s also managed to drop several catchable balls. On drop back passes Masoli’s first look needs to be tight end Ed Dickson. The senior is a matchup nightmare and has been called the best pass catcher on the football team.

Getting the ball to him will loosen up coverage on the young wideouts and allow them to get open and gain Masoli’s confidence.

In the aftermath of last week’s offensive debacle, Oregon’s best hope to beat Purdue is for the defense to have a repeat performance and hold a big play Purdue offense in check. Assuming Allioti’s guys hold up on their end, some consistent performances from Dickson and the running backs will get the Ducks back to .500.

A few extra turnovers and a big play or two on special teams would certainly create a welcome margin for error for the young offense though.

The old saying goes that “the night is darkest just before the dawn.” Last Thursday night might have been the darkest moment for Oregon football in the history of the program. Let this Saturday be the dawn of the Chip Kelly era.

THE CALL: Oregon Ducks 24, Purdue Boilermakers 20

A Duck Fan's Lament: LeGarrette Blount Must Go After Oregon-Boise State Fiasco

Tristan Holmes — Fri, 04 Sep 2009 03:06:53 -0400

When the game ended, I thought it was the worst feeling I had ever had as a sports fan.

Then it got worse.

By the time you read this, I have no doubt it will be a YouTube sensation, so I won’t bother going over what happened. Just go there and search for “Oregon,” “Boise State,” “LeGarrette Blount,” and “punch.”

Go ahead, I’ll wait.

I am embarrassed as a fan.

Ducks fans, I don’t want to see a bunch of flames about how “he was goaded.” A Bronco bumped Blount as he was exiting the field, and that set him off, but there is no excuse for physically assaulting another person simply because you are insulted.

There is also no excuse for having to be dragged off the field by security and your teammates raving and looking for a fight, no matter how obnoxious the fan taunting you was.

I have been embarrassed by happenings at the Oregon athletic department before: dismissals, the lack of action after Luke Bellotti was arrested for drunk driving, Dante Rosario kicking a Cal player in the head and not being punished, you name it.

These are the kinds of things that happen to every college football team and I never like, especially when it happens to my team.

But this was so public, so egregious, and showed such a lack of maturity that I simply feel like all my Ducks paraphernalia needs a good washing.

I think an official, written, signed apology from Blount, head coach Chip Kelly, athletic director Mike Bellotti, and the current president of the University of Oregon should be delivered to Boise State University and the player attacked. I think public apologies by all these parties should be spoken with the microphones on and cameras rolling.

I also believe LeGarrette Blount should be kicked off the football team.

If the player he attacked chooses to press charges, I think the law should be enforced without bias.

That said, I do not think Blount should be judged too harshly as a human being. LeGarrette Blount, the human being, acted egregiously and maliciously. LeGarrette Blount, the human being, made what might be the biggest mistake of his life.

I think LeGarrette Blount, the human being, should face consequences for his actions—in this case, severe consequences to match his severe actions.

But I also think that LeGarrette Blount, the human being, should be allowed to face the consequences of his actions and learn from them. I believe he should not be punished for all time and branded a bad person because of one awful decision.

I think LeGarrette Blount, the human being, can grow from this. But I think that LeGarrette Blount, the football player, should be finished.

Please, don’t let this thread become a flame war between Ducks fans shouting, “They started it!” and Boise State fans shouting, “You’re all punks!” That kind of childishness is just what led to the University of Oregon football team being embarrassed in a way that goes far deeper than what the scoreboard reads when the game is over.

After tonight, I’m not in the mood for any more shenanigans.

Oregon Vs. Boise State: Onto the Turf of Smurf, Into the Mouth of Hell!

Tristan Holmes — Sun, 30 Aug 2009 23:39:14 -0400

The moment we’ve all been waiting for is almost here. In less than a week ,college football season finally begins. For Oregon fans, it begins with a hell of a bang.

New head coach Chip Kelly will take the burden of high expectations and the fewest returning starters in the Pac-10 conference with him when the Ducks play at Boise State in prime time on Thursday night.

Oregon is still smarting from the embarrassment of losing to the Broncos at Autzen last year. What was widely considered a late, helmet to helmet hit knocked out quarterback Jeremiah Masoli early in the game and made the Ducks’ offense one dimensional.

Smelling blood, Boise State loaded the box and used their terrific defensive speed to contain any attempts to run outside. With Chris Harper nursing an injured shoulder, the Ducks' offense went nowhere fast.

After three quarters of total domination, the Broncos went into prevent mode. The substitution of Darron Thomas lit a fire in the Oregon passing game, and Boise State’s lead dwindled. But the Broncos held on for a historic win for the so called “mid-major” program.

Nobody can deny that Boise State is a program worthy of respect. But that doesn’t take away the sting Duck fans feel of losing to a non automatic qualifying conference team at home. Some have said that the Broncos won because of a dirty hit on Oregon’s quarterback.

There is no denying Masoli’s injury had a big effect, but make no mistake, the Broncos simply out-played the Ducks in every facet of the game for three quarters. When the decision was finally made to burn Thomas’ redshirt in the desperate hope of a comeback, it was already too late to salvage the game for the Ducks.

Masoli is healthy now, and he matured a lot last season. As long as his new receiver corps doesn’t underperform, Oregon should be able to force Boise State to respect their passing game. If that happens, the Ducks will be able to move the ball.

Whether they will be able to move it enough will depend on the rebuilt offensive line. Many of the new starters have significant game experience, but there is only one returning starter, and several players have been shuffled to new positions.

If the intense environment and quick Broncos defenders get to this unit and disrupt their cohesion, the result will be broken plays. In a game featuring two such dynamic offenses, Oregon can’t afford that.

As painful as it was for a hardcore Ducks fan like myself to witness it, Boise State’s offensive execution last year at Autzen was nothing short of phenomenal. The Broncos' coaches identified mismatches they could exploit, and then used max protect packages to neutralize Oregon’s potent pass rush.

Though the Broncos never got the ground game going, play action burned the Ducks time and again as Kellen Moore found his running backs and tight ends repeatedly for big plays.

Boise State also used motion and creative packages to good effect. After a fumble recovery in the third quarter led to a Jeremiah Johnson touchdown, the Ducks seemed to finally have a pulse. On the ensuing Boise State drive, a wide receiver was sent in motion and ended up in single coverage against middle linebacker Casey Mathews. The result was a Broncos touchdown.

On a critical 4th-and-1 in the second half, Moore pretended to fumble the ball as he dropped back. The Ducks' defense bit, and Moore found his tight end open for the conversion.

If the Ducks want payback for last year’s loss, Nick Allioti’s defense cannot make these mistakes again. The rebuilt defensive line and talented linebackers must find a way to shut down Boise State on the ground without being overly reliant on support from the secondary. Otherwise, play action will be the Ducks’ kryptonite once again.

Against a high powered, creative offense like the Broncos’, it is imperative that Oregon limit big plays. The “trick” plays Boise State runs not only get lots of yards but turn the momentum decidedly in their favor when they work. In an extremely hostile environment, the Ducks cannot let the Broncos have this working to their advantage.

Special teams had a big impact in last year’s game. Both teams missed field goals, and Boise State stopped a two point conversion attempt by Oregon. Morgan Flint does not have Matt Evenson’s range, but is more consistent with his accuracy.

The Ducks have a highly regarded freshman in Rob Beard (who will probably handle kickoff duties) to turn to if they have to attempt a long field goal. With dangerous return men on both sides, I’d call the special teams evenly matched.

Boise State’s biggest advantage is that this game is opening week on the blue turf. Oregon’s lineup has undergone significant shakeups from last season. With a new head coach and plenty of new starters in the lineup, it is natural for there to be questions of confidence in the back of the Ducks’ minds. They must remember the humiliation of last year’s game and play with emotion to cover these doubts and not let them affect their play on the field.

For the Broncos, this is the biggest game of the season. They get a well regarded Pac-10 opponent at home on national TV. If they are going to bust the BCS, they have to win, plain and simple. This is an opportunity for Boise State to solidify itself as a football program worthy of the respect given to automatic qualifying conference members. The players, and the fans, will be fired up.

The Ducks have what it takes to avenge last year’s loss and end the Broncos 'run to greatness before it gets started. But to do so, they must win the turnover battle and play with the same intensity that Boise State will bring to their home field.

To quote LaGarrette Blount when questioned about this game in Sport’s Illustrated’s College Football Preview issue:

“We owe that team a whuppin.’”

If the whole Oregon Ducks team plays like they owe the Broncos a whuppin, they can deliver it.

PREDICTION: Oregon Ducks 38, Boise State Broncos 35

Oregon Ducks 2009 Football Preview: Bye Bye Bellotti Old Buddy!

Tristan Holmes — Sun, 23 Aug 2009 23:32:53 -0400

Coming off a 10-win season and an exciting bowl win over a highly regarded Oklahoma State team, expectations are extremely high for Oregon football in 2009. However, though the Ducks return prominent skill players on both offense and defense there are plenty of questions about this team.

Rather than breaking down each position player by player as any number of other previews have, I’ll be giving my overall impressions of what I’ve been hearing this off season and my opinions on what to expect from the Ducks in all areas of the game for the 2009 season.

If it weren’t already named for his old boss, former head coach and now athletic director Mike Bellotti would probably have his name plastered on the field at Autzen Stadium by the time of the first home game.

Taking a team that had finally become relevant in its conference in 1994 to heights undreamed of before, Bellotti had only one losing season in 14 years at the helm and has more wins than any other coach in Oregon football history.

His handpicked successor is former offensive coordinator Chip Kelly. An offensive coach of the highest order, Kelly has overseen units that account for the two highest season rushing totals in school history. He also deserves a tremendous amount of credit for turning around Dennis Dixon’s career after he was benched at the end of the previous season and turning him into a Heisman Trophy candidate in 2007.

But success as a coordinator doesn’t necessarily translate to success as a head coach. It worked for Bellotti, but time will tell if Kelly has what it takes to be the head man. Most in question will be his ability to keep players motivated and his game management, as he has no experience as a head coach at any level.

If Oregon wants to get where the pundits think they can get this year they will have to win some close games, and the head coach’s decision making can be all the difference when it goes down to the wire.

The offense is loaded in the backfield with QB Jeremiah Masoli and RB LaGarrette Blount. The receivers have shown potential but are unproven or have histories of inconsistency. The biggest question is the young offensive line.

The players have some experience in games, but four of them are new starters and many of them are moving to new positions. There will be growing pains while this unit develops, but they need to stay few and far between if Oregon’s season is to be a success.

By the numbers the Duck’s defense was mediocre, and absolutely dreadful against the pass.

The argument has been made that the number of snaps the defense has to play and the fact that opposing teams are often playing from behind because of the high-octane spread option offense the team runs has some bearing on these numbers and that the defense is better than it appears. Oregon fans hope this is true as there are many holes to fill.

The secondary loses two key starters, but shutdown corner Walter Thurmond III is healthy again and should lock down one receiver per play. The linebackers may be one of the best groups Oregon has had in recent years. They will need to be to help out a defensive line that is inexperienced and low on bulk.

Up front the defense loses three senior starters, one sack master and a pair of big and technically sound defensive tackles. Their successors have no starting experience (though have played in mop up time). One of the new starting tackles is listed at 251 lb., and a starting end at 215 lb.

With veteran end Will Tukuafu returning the pass rush should be decent to great depending on how well quick “little” Kenny Rowe performs. Stopping power running games might prove to be a challenge though.

Oregon returns the placekicker who took over last year after Matt Evenson’s struggles, Morgan Flint. He will be pushed by highly regarded redshirt freshman Rob Beard, who will also probably handle kickoff duties. A highly touted true freshman takes over at punter as well, Jackson Rice.

Assuming these new arrivals live up to their billing Oregon should be OK on special teams with some talented kick at punt returners on the roster. But Oregon must also break in a new long snapper. I won’t mention his name (as I can’t find it online). If we still don’t know his name after the season is over, he’s done a great job.

For the Ducks to succeed, it is imperative the offensive line matures quickly and the running game continues to thrive. With a year of experience under his belt, Masoli and his inconsistent receivers should be able to put enough of a passing game together to keep opponents from keying on the run (as happened last year against Boise State and Cal).

Assuming the defense doesn’t take a step backward from last year (which is, unfortunately, possible) Oregon should be in the running for eight or nine wins.

The worst case scenario is the Ducks have growing pains on both lines of scrimmage and have to scrape together enough wins to make a bowl game.

The dream would be if Kelly becomes as good a head coach as he was a coordinator, the O-line matures rapidly, the D-line plays better than it looks on paper, Masoli and the receivers improve to make the offense two dimensional and the pass defense tightens up.

If all those pieces fall into place, the Ducks can look forward to double digit wins and being in the conference title race.

NEXT WEEK: Weekly game preview, “Onto the Turf of Smurf, Into the Mouth of Hell!”

Justin Roper to Transfer from Oregon: Is Chip Kelley Losing the Flock?

Tristan Holmes — Sun, 24 May 2009 23:12:31 -0400

Following in the footsteps of wide receiver Aaron Pflugrad, backup quarterback Justin Roper has decided to transfer and was recently granted his release by Oregon.

Despite entering last season as the starter following an injury to Nate Costa, Roper was sidelined early in the season (first by a concussion suffered in the opener against Washington, and then by a knee injury at Purdue) and lost the starting job to JC transfer Jeremiah Masoli.

Despite a superb spring game, Roper was once again listed as a backup, this time to Masoli, who, after struggling throwing throughout much of the season, blossomed in the last three games of 2008.

Less mobile than the other quarterbacks on Oregon's roster, some fans considered Roper a poor fit for the spread option scheme run by Chip Kelley. However, Roper was undefeated as a starter and showed good decision-making ability on a consistent basis.

As a redshirt junior, Roper is experienced and has proven his ability to play quarterback against top-tier competition. At 6'6", he can make throws other players cannot, and though no Dennis Dixon with his legs, he is mobile in the pocket and can scramble for needed yards if a play breaks down.

I would assume almost any FCS program would be happy to offer Roper a scholarship if he wants to use both of his remaining years of eligibility (he has already used his redshirt year).

I am sure a number of FBS programs would be very interested as well.

Though it would break my heart to see him play for a conference opponent, I would think quarterback needy Washington State would take a long look at Roper if he decided he was interested in playing in Pullman.

Roper's departure makes Jeremiah Masoli's health paramount to the Ducks' success in 2009. Nate Costa has the full confidence of the offensive coaches but no starting experience and has been limited in practice due to multiple knee injuries.

Nevertheless, I suspect Costa will be the backup this season, as Kelley will want to salvage a redshirt year for Darron Thomas.

This makes for the second important (though not crucial) player to ask for a release since Kelley became head coach.

Should Ducks fans be concerned?

Are these transfers even related to the coaching change, or would they have happened if Mike Bellotti had stayed another season?

Please share your thoughts in the comments section.

NCAA Announces FBS Conference Re-Allignment (Humor)

Tristan Holmes — Tue, 21 Apr 2009 00:01:02 -0400

In a shocking announcement delivered at 4:37 on April 20 at a surprise press conference by NCAA officials and the heads of the 11 current conferences of Div-1A schools said that a plan was in place to entirely re-organize college football's competitive divisions and replace the current BCS model with a full playoff.

Reporters were flabbergasted at such an unexpected turn of events given the current contracts and agreements between the conferences, schools, and the BCS bowl games.

"We've all been thinking about what it would take to institute a playoff for while now, even as we all kept trying to fix the current system. This afternoon we all came together in a conference call, "Dude, why not?" said an official spokesperson. "It was like in one magic moment something let us see through the BS."

Rather than try to workout a seeding method for a full playoff using the current conference organization, the plan re-organizes all 120 FBS schools into 12 new ten school conferences based on geographic divisions.

"In addition to making a playoff feasible, which is, y'know, what people keep whining about, it will also save teams money of travel that they can then spend on, whatever," said the official spokesman.

When asked what prompted the sudden change in so many attitudes toward a playoff, none of the officials present gave comment, citing "the man."

Currently, there are no plans to extend the new organization to any other sport, these teams will keep their prior alignments. However, if the new conferences gel quickly several conference chairpersons said that they could extend the reorganization "sometime, later, maybe."

Reactions have been mostly positive so far from the college football community.

"As soon as I saw the new alignment I said 'thank heavens, I don't ever have to play another game in the Willamette Valley!'" said USC coach Pete Carroll.

"Anything that limits the number of teams that are well known in the state of Texas, I'm for," said Oklahoma's Bob Stoops. "More players for me!"

Even Big-10 icon Joe Paterno of Penn State was in favor of the move.

"I've tried before to create a northeastern conference that Penn State could be a part of. Given the state of the other teams in our new conference, I can't think of a better time to do that than right now."

Notre Dame and the schools of the SEC have, on the contrary, condemned the new plan.

"Given the high academic caliber and great history of Notre Dame's football teams, there is no legitimate reason for the team to be forced to prove itself the best among a conference of its peers to reach meaningful post-season play," said a statement issued from the ND athletics office.

Taking things one step further, the athletic directors at the schools of the SEC issued a joint statement condemning the breakup of the "most iconic football conference in the nation."

The same statement issued a counter-proposal that would re-organize all 108 non-SEC teams into similar new conferences that would then play-off for the right to play the SEC champion for the national title.

Should the NCAA and conferences fail to respond to the SEC's complaint, the conference has reserve the right to secede from the Div I FBS and crown its own national champion.

Negotiations are still underway as to where and when the playoff games will be held, but persistent rumors state that Dallas Cowboys owner Jerry Jones would be willing to allow all postseason games to take place at the team's new stadium in exchange for the NCAA "bailing out" the team for the cost of construction.

The new College Football FBS organization runs as follows.

Evergreen Conference Gold Rush Conference

Washington California, Berkeley

Washington State California, Los Angeles

Oregon Stanford

Oregon State Southern California

Idaho Fresno State

Boise State San Jose State

Utah San Diego State

Utah State Hawaii

Brigham Young Nevada, Reno

Wyoming Nevada, Las Vegas

Old West Conference Cattle Trail Conference

Arizona Texas, Austin

Arizona State Texas A&M

New Mexico Rice

New Mexico State Houston

Colorado Southern Methodist

Colorado State Baylor

Air Force Texas Christian

Texas, El Paso Oklahoma

Texas Tech Oklahoma State

North Texas Tulsa

Corn Belt Conference Lake Michigan Conference

Nebraska Northwestern

Kansas Indiana

Kansas State Purdue

Missouri Ball State

Iowa Notre Dame

Iowa State Western Michigan

Minnesota Central Michigan

Wisconsin Eastern Michigan

Illinois Michigan

Northern Illinois Michigan State

Mississippi River Conference Dixie Conference

Mississippi Western Kentucky

Mississippi State Kentucky

Southern Mississippi Louisville

Arkansas Tennessee

Arkansas State Vanderbilt

Louisiana State Memphis

Louisiana Tech Middle Tennessee State

Louisiana Lafayette Alabama, Tuscaloosa

Louisiana Monroe Alabama, Birmingham

Tulane Auburn

Rebel Conference Tobacco Row Conference

Troy Army

Georgia Virginia

Georgia Tech Virginia Tech

Florida North Carolina

Florida State North Carolina State

Florida International Duke

Florida Atlantic Wake Forest

Miami, Florida East Carolina

South Florida Clemson

Central Florida South Carolina

Backwoods Conference Yankee Conference

West Virginia Maryland

Marshall Navy

Ohio Rutgers

Ohio State Connecticut

Cincinnati Boston College

Miami, Ohio Buffalo

Kent State Syracuse

Akron Pittsburgh

Toledo Penn State

Bowling Green Temple

Western Region: Evergreen, Gold Rush, Old West

Central Region: Cattle Trail, Corn Belt, Lake Michigan

Eastern Region: Yankee, Backwoods, Tobacco Row

Southern Region: Rebel, Dixie, Mississippi River

Conference champions and one at large (determined by conference placement, overall record, non-conference record, AP ranking) from each region playoff for Regional Championship. Teams are seeded No.1-4 and play 1 vs 4, 2 vs 3 in the initial round.

Regional champions playoff for national title. Teams are seeded 1-4 and play 1 vs 4, 2 vs 3 in the initial round.

2008 Holiday Bowl: Watch Out Scoreboard, Here They Come!

Tristan Holmes — Mon, 29 Dec 2008 12:12:18 -0500

Happy Holidays to everyone out there in the interweb. I do apologize that this game preview is at the last minute, but given my adventures trying to make it back home to Portland, it is something of a minor miracle that I am writing this from my parents' house rather than the San Francisco airport terminal.

This year’s Holiday Bowl has all the makings of a classic shootout. Both the Oregon Ducks and the Oklahoma State Cowboys have terrific running games.

Oklahoma State has more balance in their attack, with a deadly passing combination of Zac Robinson and Dez Bryant complementing one of the best runners in the country, Kendall Hunter.

Neither of these teams has been very good against the pass this year, though the Cowboys can argue that is because they had to face Texas, Texas Tech, Oklahoma, and Missouri all in the same season.

Throughout most of the season, the Ducks offense was entirely dependent on the run, and when they struggled to move the ball on the ground, they lost. The past two games however have seen quarterback Jeremiah Masoli turn into a true dual threat rather than a runner who takes snaps from the shotgun.

If the Ducks want to keep up with the Cowboys, Masoli and his inconsistent receivers must be able to make plays and loosen up the Oklahoma State defense.

In a game matching such high powered offenses, execution will be critical for both teams. Points may come cheap in San Diego, but wasting any possession with a turnover or negative play that stalls a drive could put one team behind for good.

But with two of the premiere offensive coaches in college football, Mike “I’m a man!” Gundy and Chip Kelly, orchestrating things, I feel confident both units will show up to play.

While Dez Bryant is also a dangerous returner, the Ducks special teams are decent and unless one of these two teams makes a big gaffe, they seem fairly even in this phase of the game.

So both teams come in matched up well in many categories, what will make the difference? Most pundits feel Oklahoma State’s better balance on offense will win in the end. I feel differently.

The winner isn’t necessarily going to be the team that is more balanced on offense, because offenses don’t necessarily need to be balanced to win.

Assuming both offenses execute at a high level, and special teams strike even, the winner of this game will be whichever team’s defense mans up.

“What does that mean?” I hear you ask. It means whichever defensive unit best covers their weaknesses and creates opportunities will lead their team to victory. For both teams, that means turnovers.

Oklahoma State must tackle better than they have at any point in the season and maintain strict gap discipline to force third and long situations.

The Cowboys must also do a better job of getting to Masoli, for given time he has shown himself capable of hurting opponents with both his arm and his legs.

If the Cowboys defense finds the form they showed against Texas and Missouri ,it could be a long night for the Ducks.

Against a quarterback like Zac Robinson, it is vital not only for the Ducks to get pressure consistently but to do it in the right way. If rushers are not disciplined and leave their lanes, Taylor is capable of making one man miss and scrambling for big gains.

The greatest threat the Ducks defense faces though is Oklahoma State using play action and the tight end. Both have gouged Oregon all season long, and Oklahoma State has a great running back (Kendall Hunter) and a terrific tight end (Brandon Pettigrew) that could make it happen again.

It is vital that the Ducks defenders not be caught looking in the backfield allowing the Cowboy receivers to get behind them. The textbook way to beat play action is to read the offensive line’s blocks to diagnose run or pass rather than looking at the skill players, and the Oregon defense must do this better than they have all year.

As great a threat as Bryant is, Pettigrew worries me more simply because he plays the tight end position. Nick Allioti must find a scheme that will not allow the Cowboys to take advantage of mismatches against the Ducks linebackers in pass coverage.

I’m no coach, so I can’t speak with authority, but in Allioti’s position, I would tempted to simply match Patrick Chung or T.J. Ward man-to-man against Pettigrew on every down.

If he blocks, the safety comes up and plays the run. If he runs a route, the safety takes him in man coverage, hopefully with support from other defenders.

Just looking at the match ups this seems like it should be a close, but solid, victory for the Oklahoma State Cowboys.

But then again, the Beavers seemed to have the edge in their match ups against the Oregon Ducks and we saw how that turned out…Here’s hoping to make it 2-0 against OSU’s in 2008.

MY VERDICT: Oklahoma State Cowboys 38, Oregon Ducks 42

Oregon-Oregon State: 112th Civil War a Battle for the State of Oregon's Soul

Tristan Holmes — Thu, 27 Nov 2008 17:34:45 -0500

It is tough for me to imagine what it must feel like to be an Oregon State Beaver fan right now.

When I was young and first got interested in college football, both of the programs in Oregon were nationally irrelevant. But I only had to wait a couple of years for the Ducks' magical 1994 season to change things permanently.

Oregon State finally emerged from obscurity in 2000, but there is one thing that all but the most experienced of their fans has been denied during their lifetimes: the Rose Bowl. Now it is within their grasp.

In that 2000 season, the Beavers took the Rose Bowl from the Ducks. I was there at Reser Stadium that fateful day when Oregon’s dreams came crashing down. I remember late in the fourth quarter, the Ducks were trailing by 10, but were within striking distance of the end zone. A touchdown, a three and out, and “Captain Comeback” could do it one more time and send the Ducks to Pasadena in style.

I was sitting in the away section behind the far end zone. Harrington took the snap from center and dropped back to pass. He was looking to his right. I remember seeing a Beaver defender run around the protection on the left side. “Throw it, throw it, throw it!” I said in my head, trying to will Harrington to get rid of the ball before it was too late. But he held on too long.

I remember seeing number three bend backward as he was hit from his blind side. I remember seeing the ball drop to the turf, and hope fade.

Turnabout is fair play.

In stark contrast to the Ducks' spread option attack, the Beavers run what these days can seem like an “old-fashioned” offense. Early in games Oregon State uses power formations to establish the run. After getting the defense thinking run, they will then spread out the opponent a little more and go to play action to gash the defense for big plays.

It may be old-fashioned, but the Beavers make it work and work well, leading the conference in passing offense.

That is not good news for the Ducks, who have the worst pass defense in the conference. Play action and tight ends have consistently been Oregon’s kryptonite, and Oregon State may be the best play action team the Ducks have faced all season.

With three of the conference’s top wide receivers, the tight end has not played as big a role for the Beavers as for, say, Arizona. But Oregon State has the personnel to hurt the Ducks from this position if Oregon does not find a way to shore up the weaknesses in the defense.

With freshman phenom Jacquizz Rodgers out for the game, the Beavers offense changes slightly. Ryan McCants and his compatriots showed last week that they could still produce on the ground even without Rodgers, but Oregon State leaned more heavily on James Rodgers and the fly sweep. This play went for the go-ahead score against the Ducks last year, and Oregon has been trying to simulate it with their scout team to prepare.

Rodgers' absence will be felt, but remember the Beavers won last year without the services of starting tailback Yvenson Bernard.

Oregon State possesses the second-best rushing defense in the conference, but has yet to face a running game like Oregon’s spread option. Even if the Ducks defense plays one of its better games, the matchups simply do not favor Oregon, and the Ducks offense needs to come out strong and keep its momentum throughout the game.

One half of solid production was enough to get by Arizona, but probably won’t be sufficient to beat the Beavers.

The good news is that against the Wildcats Ed Dickson and Jaison Williams came back from the dead. The Ducks cannot afford to be a run-only team and let the Beavers' fierce run defense bring eight or nine players into the box. That means Masoli and Oregon’s receivers need to be able to make key plays in the passing game when the time comes.

For all its intermittent explosiveness, the Ducks' passing game has been maddeningly unreliable all year. If the Ducks struggle to throw the ball, it could be a long day indeed for the Green and Yellow faithful.

Special teams offer an intriguing matchup as both teams possess explosive returners. Walter Thurmond III’s health is questionable after sustaining an injury against Arizona, but if he is able to go, he will need some big kickoff returns to counteract the effectiveness of James Rodgers.

Sammie Stroughter has always been one of the best punt returners in the country, but Jairus Byrd has shown he can break long runs as well.

If both offenses are executing according to the game plan, the winner of the game may be the team with the better performance from their kick coverage units.

Oregon has an extremely difficult task in front of them. With a Rose Bowl berth on the line and a home crowd behind them, Oregon State will be at the peak of intensity, and the Ducks must find a way to match them and shake off any rust from the bye week.

The struggle at the line of scrimmage will be key as the running game is so important to both offenses. These two teams also possess some of the best pass rushers in the conference, and there will be a great deal of pressure on the tackles, tight ends, and backs of both sides to keep the quarterbacks off the turf.

For Oregon to have a chance to win, they must avoid turnovers and penalties, as Oregon State is one of the most mistake-free teams in the Pac-10. In addition, they must match any big plays by the Beavers on special teams.

Third downs on both sides of the ball will be crucial for the Ducks, as Oregon’s offense specializes in quick strikes while Oregon State's normally has long time-consuming drives. If the Ducks defense is on the field for too many snaps, the game could slip away in the fourth quarter.

If Oregon can do all these things and keep up their offensive production throughout the entire game, they can beat the best team in the Pac-10 outside of Los Angeles and avenge that terrible loss from eight years ago.

Can the Ducks pull it off? They absolutely can. Will they pull it off? My heart says yes, but my head... Consider this my heart’s prediction.

MY VERDICT: Oregon Ducks 31, Oregon State Beavers 30

Arizona-Oregon: The Ducks Look to Silence The Boo-Birds

Tristan Holmes — Thu, 13 Nov 2008 16:41:20 -0500

This week I’ve decided to go another direction.

If you just want to read a straight preview of this weekend’s Wildcats-Ducks game, skip down just a little ways.

All of you Duck fans who boo'ed the team during the game last week—shame on you!

I have never understood the notion of booing one’s own team. Your upset with their performance, I get that. Believe me I was saying some choice words watching on TV and I’ve cursed a blue streak in the stands when things weren’t going well. But a curse is an expression of frustration, booing is more than that.

When you boo someone, you are expressing vitriol toward them. You are saying that they are not welcome around you, that they are not good enough to be on the field. That may not be the message people were trying to convey, but that is what it sounded like. That’s why people should only boo the opposition, if they insist on booing at all.

More than that, fans simply do not have the right to boo. Where were you during the week’s practices? The film sessions? The weight-room workouts? You weren’t there any more than I was. So how did you know if the team is trying or if they are just coming up short? You didn’t and you can’t. Don’t be so quick to deal out judgment.

You think the players need someone to tell them when they mess up? They know! Fans don’t tell players what they need to do to get better or hustle harder, that is what coaches are for.

We fans latch on to the accomplishments of teams and take their joy and pain as our own because we love watching the game and having someone to pull for. When we are true, die hard fans, these athletes can even affect our mood. I know, I’ve been there.

But WE aren’t the ones sweating, trying, pushing with all we’ve got and doing our damnedest. The players are the ones that do that. The game is for them, not us. Celebrate when they do well, mourn when they do poorly. But don’t you dare pass judgment on their effort or dedication when all you do is look at them run around on the field.

Despite struggling in the passing game, Oregon eked out a win in dramatic fashion against the Stanford Cardinal last week. Turnovers hurt the Ducks, but a few iffy calls went Oregon’s way to even things out. The Cardinal defense wore down late in the game and was unable to stop Oregon’s final drive, earning the Ducks a momentous win.

Things don’t get any easier this week as the Arizona Wildcats come to Autzen. Stanford was a team that had a very similar profile to the Ducks, but with home field advantage and a little luck, the Ducks proved to be just a little bit better at doing what they do well.

Arizona presents tough match ups for the Ducks. The Wildcats utilize a Texas Tech style spread that usually uses four or five wide receiver sets. Oregon’s pass defense has been abysmal at times this season, especially against play action and their depth will be tested. If all the Wildcats did was throw, the Ducks might be able to sit back and whether the storm, but ‘Zona averages nearly 170 yards rushing per game.

The Wildcats are not a team that the Ducks can count on to beat themselves. Arizona leads the conference in turnover margin at +8 (Oregon is currently at -1 on the season). The Cats also have the fewest penalties and penalty yards per game in the Pac-10. Combined with the league’s leading punter, scoring kicker, and punt returner (in average yards per return), Arizona is a formidable team with no glaring weaknesses.

But there is room for Ducks fans to hope. After all, the Wildcats lost to New Mexico, and to Stanford, a team Oregon just beat. For the Ducks to have a chance, they must find success on the ground. Only USC, and Boise State (Cal did a good job but let up in stretches) have truly been able to shut down the Ducks option attack. Still, the Wildcats are decent against the run and will no doubt crowd the line of scrimmage.

Jeremiah Masoli led a dramatic comeback last weekend, but still had a rough day throwing the ball. The Ducks did find some success on quick screens, essentially expanding their running game to include the wide receivers.

After Jaison Williams’ struggles catching the ball he was benched and Drew Davis started the game. But one torn ACL (oh, that damn tendon again…) later and Williams has his job back. If he still wants to claim some of Oregon’s career receiving records this week would be a great game to bust a few big plays again. Ed Dickson has been entirely missing from the offense for several weeks now. If the Ducks want to make their offense two dimensional, getting these two going would be a terrific place to start.

Oregon is going to have a tough fight on its hands trying to match up against Arizona. It is imperative that the Ducks avoid turnovers and penalties, and play solidly on special teams (Morgan Flint seemed to do well as the new placekicker last week) because Arizona isn’t in the habit of doing the opposition any favors.

With the Pac-10’s two top scoring offenses facing off, expect a shootout. Oregon’s defense has to firm up, but they can’t be expected to win the game by themselves. If the Ducks want get the W, they need to get their offense going early and maintain their momentum throughout the game. That means the ground game has to have a strong showing, putting the onus on the offensive line to play more physically that the Cats front seven.

My mind says the Ducks just don’t match up well with the Wildcats, but my Green and Yellow heart says they’ll find a way somehow.

MY VERDICT: Oregon Ducks 45, Arizona Wildcats 40

PS: To everyone who is going to be in the stadium, please cheer hard for all the seniors. Yes, even Jaison Williams!

Stanford-Oregon Preview: Run, Duckies, Run!

Tristan Holmes — Wed, 05 Nov 2008 13:27:39 -0500

When I first saw Memorial Stadium on TV last week, two thoughts ran through my head almost simultaneously:

“Man, am I glad I’m going to school in Hawaii.”

“It’s a good sign. Rainy conditions always favor the team from Oregon!”

So much for my career as a soothsayer.

I wrote last week that the team that had the positive turnover margin would win the game. What I hadn’t expected was that the Ducks would be unable to convert their turnovers into points. Cal gained fewer turnovers but scored more points off the ones they did get, and that was the difference.

Looking at the yardage for the first two quarters, one would think the Bears had run away with the game at halftime. But Oregon’s defense kept the Ducks’ heads above water with turnovers that stopped Cal drives cold. The only problem was that the Ducks turned five turnovers into just six points and went into halftime trailing.

At the very beginning of the fourth quarter, it seemed like things had finally turned around. The two Jeremiahs were running all over the field, the Ducks had narrowed the gap to three points, and it was 3rd-and-1 inside the 20—but a false start, failed conversion, and missed field goal later, and everything seemed to go up in smoke.

Once more, though, the Ducks' defense came to the rescue, forcing a punt with over eight minutes to go. One more good drive could give the Ducks a lead that they just might be able to hold onto.

But then Jairus Byrd muffed the ensuing punt (he did make the right call with the fair catch at that part of the field, according to Mike Bellotti at his weekly press conference), Cal recovered the ball, punched it in, and it was all she wrote. Oregon’s anemic passing game couldn’t muster a comeback, and the Ducks' hopes for a Pac-10 title went down the tubes.

Jeremiah Masoli was knocked out late with niggling injuries that added up over the course of the game, according to Bellotti, but has practiced and is expected to start against Stanford. LeGarrette Blount had a miserable day running the ball and was injured to boot. His status will not be known until Friday.

All of this leads up to a must-win game for the Ducks when they host the Cardinal this weekend at Autzen Stadium. Oregon has yet to beat a team that currently possesses a winning record, and if they don’t take care of business against Stanford, their probable destinations in the postseason look bleak with feisty Arizona and the Civil War still to go.

Stanford also has their backs against the wall. The Cardinal are one win away from bowl eligibility for the first time in far too long. But after their visit to Eugene they must play both USC and Cal. Winning just one of those games would be pretty impressive, and winning both will be next to impossible. Hence, the desperation factor may favor Harbaugh’s team.

This weekend’s game features a tantalizing matchup of strength against strength. Oregon leads the Pac-10 conference in rushing per game by over 50 yards over the second-place team, Stanford.

When it comes to passing defense, there is only one team in the Pac-10 that has struggled more than the Ducks—the Cardinal. But both teams are stout against the run, with Stanford trailing Oregon in rushing defense by only 0.2 yards a game.

Neither team’s struggling secondary should be tested much by the opposition though, as the Ducks are seventh in the conference in passing offense while the Cardinal are dead last.

On paper, this looks to be about as even a matchup as one will get. However, both teams have some intangibles going for them, starting with special teams.

Matt Evenson leads the conference is scoring but has been woefully inconsistent all year. If it came down to a duel of kickers in the clutch, one would have to favor the Cardinal. However, assuming they avoid any major gaffes like the muff last week, Oregon would seem to have an edge in the return game.

If you like to see teams run the ball, you won’t find a better game to watch all season. The team that best establishes its running game and is better able to take advantage of turnovers will emerge the victor.

With Autzen behind them, the Ducks should be able to match the Cardinal’s intensity. I think Oregon has a very slight edge in overall athleticism, so I predict they will survive a close, hard-hitting contest.

Of course, if either team manages to pull a passing game out of its butt, all bets are off.

MY VERDICT: Oregon Ducks 35, Stanford Cardinal 28

Parting Thought: If you are a Duck fan who is having a bad day, do NOT click here. Trust me, this is much scarier than anything you saw on Halloween.

Oregon-Cal: Something Has to Give

Tristan Holmes — Wed, 29 Oct 2008 16:28:27 -0400

I’ve got to hand it to Larry—he was right about my prediction last week. I gave Arizona State far more credit than they deserved.

Though nobody outside of Sun Devil Stadium saw it, the Ducks were able to survive their own sloppy play on offense and blow out Arizona State. The Sun Devils made a bevy of mistakes and never had any momentum. Despite Oregon missing a field goal, an extra point, and committing three turnovers, they had more than 300 yards on the ground and 200 through the air.

I’ve been cautious with my predictions all year. I’ve yet to say publicly that the Ducks will win by more than 10 points or so. But this week is different. This week I think we can all agree Oregon has a tough game on its hands.

Cal and Oregon have had very similar seasons so far. Both laid an egg against a non-conference opponent they were favored to beat and suffered setbacks against a single conference opponent. But both teams are still in the hunt for a Pac-10 title (assuming USC slips up once more before the season is over).

The biggest difference between the two? The Golden Bears have beaten a team with a winning record, Michigan State. The Ducks have yet to manage that.

Oregon’s spread option offense keys on the run, which unfortunately plays right into the Golden Bears' strengths. Cal’s 3-4 defense is the 12th-best rush defense in the country, and their passing defense isn’t too bad either.

Oregon has been almost as good against the run, but prior to the bye week a banged-up secondary had been consistently gashed by play action. If Jahvid Best gets going this Saturday, look for a lot of such plays from Cal.

To beat a good Golden Bears team on the road, Oregon has to protect the ball better. There were issues with the shotgun snap last week, and the Ducks turned the ball over three times. On the season they are dead even in turnover margin, while the Bears are +10.

Turnovers were the difference the past two seasons against the Bears, and if the Ducks start giving away footballs the day after Halloween, things are going to go bad in a hurry.

Quarterback play has been iffy for both of these teams this season. Oregon has been plagued by injuries among the signal callers but seems to have settled on Jeremiah Masoli as their man until further notice.

A season-long competition between Kevin Riley and Nate Longshore has yet to convince Jeff Tedford to name a permanent starter, but Riley will get the first shot this week.

With two stout run defenses on the field, it is imperative for both teams to find success in the passing game.

The Ducks need to hope that they can keep some distance from the Bears, because they would seem to be at a disadvantage if it came down to a duel of field goals. Matt Evenson showed that he still has some mojo with a 52-yarder last week, but he has been inconsistent all season.

Oregon would much prefer getting into the end zone rather than risking field goal tries with an unpredictable kicker.

The winner of this game will be the team that wins the turnover margin. If that is even, it will come down to whoever’s passing attack does the best job of loosening up the opposing defense for the team's dangerous runners.

Look for the Bears to load the box and dare the Ducks' inconsistent receivers to beat them, while Oregon in turn does their best to rattle Cal’s two-headed quarterback.

This game is pivotal for both teams. The loser is all but eliminated from the conference title race and will be banned from the Top 25 for the foreseeable future. The winner will be in position to finish strong against some of the better teams in the Pac-10.

The Bears have taken two straight from the Ducks, and despite the mutual respect between these two closely connected programs, Bellotti and Co. are recruiting rivals with Tedford’s crew and could really use a win in California to help make their case to potential players.

Not to mention a win of this magnitude with the game televised on ABC might convince Kabuman to put together another of his great videos.

I’ve never predicted against the Ducks since I started writing for Bleacher Report, and more often than not it has worked out well for my favorite team. So once again, my “prediction” will be more based on faith in my own team than on cold logic.

I say something like this every week, but against the ball-hawking Golden Bears, I really think it is true: This one is not going to be easy.

MY VERDICT: Oregon Ducks 37, California Golden Bears 33

Oregon-Arizona State: Ducks Fly South to Face the Sun Devils

Tristan Holmes — Wed, 22 Oct 2008 17:02:23 -0400

Looking at the records for Oregon and Arizona State, you would think the Ducks would be more than four-point favorites this Saturday. But once you take a look at Oregon’s wins, you start to wonder if they should be favored at all.

Consider the teams the Ducks have beaten: Washington, Utah State, Purdue, Washington State, and UCLA. Not one of these teams has a winning record.

The Huskies, Aggies, and Cougars are three of the worst teams in the country, and it is to be hoped that a team with as much talent as the Ducks would beat them as handily as they did.

But it took a couple missed field goals by a Purdue team that will finish near the bottom of the Big Ten to down the Boilermakers and a recovery of an onside kick to put the Bruins to bed.

Oregon has been stout against the run, but despite having three players in the secondary on the preseason Thorpe Award watch list, the Ducks have been carved up by opposing passers. Part of it is lingering injuries in the secondary, but the bigger factor has been an overeagerness of defensive backs to play run support and getting burned by play action.

On offense, the Ducks have lived and died by the running game. Against Boise State the runners were swamped by nine Broncos in the box until the fourth quarter, and the Ducks simply couldn’t keep up with BSU’s offense. Against USC the entire offense was inept. Oregon’s only scoring drives were aided by penalties.

The passing game has been hampered by repeated QB injuries, but the Ducks receivers have not helped matters with so many dropped passes.

The Sun Devils have had problems of their own. After a strong run in Dennis Erickson’s first year on the job, many thought ASU would challenge USC for the Pac-10 throne. But the Sun Devils' running game has been close to nonexistent, and the defense hasn’t been able to cover for the offense's struggles.

With quarterback Rudy Carpenter nursing injuries, they were shut out against the Trojans despite gaining five turnovers.

If Oregon is really going to get on track, they must establish a passing game. Jeremiah Masoli proved against UCLA he is more than capable as a runner in the spread option, but he was a miserable 5-for-19 passing. Still, it could have been an almost respectable 10-of-19 if the Ducks receivers hadn’t dropped five balls.

Justin Roper is healthy again, and while Masoli has been better statistically, there are questions about who gives the best balance to the offense.

Both of Oregon’s quarterbacks will seemingly play, and one of them has to establish a rapport with the receivers if this offense is to fulfill its potential. Dropped passes have haunted Oregon this year, and against the better teams in the conference they simply cannot afford such mistakes. Teams like the Sun Devils will make the Ducks pay for such slip-ups.

The Ducks' dinged-up secondary has had a bye week to heal up before trying to deal with Arizona State. It’s a good thing too, as the Sun Devils have improved their pass protection since last year in Eugene.

With the Sun Devils' running game struggling, the Ducks' best bet is to keep all the defensive backs in coverage and dare Arizona State to drive down the field by running through the front seven. By the same token, expect the Sun Devils to load the box and dare the Ducks to throw the ball downfield.

This weekend’s untelevised (isn’t that illegal yet?) game in the desert will be an interesting matchup of contrasting offensive strengths: the Ducks' running game and the Sun Devils' passing game. The worry for Ducks fans is that Arizona State has been decent against the run, but Oregon has struggled against the pass.

To win, the Ducks have to have a positive turnover margin (meaning no dropped interceptions like against UCLA) and make more plays on special teams than the Sun Devils.

This game makes me, and probably a lot of other Duck fans, very nervous. ASU is a dangerous team that is desperate for a win. With a trip to Berkeley on the horizon, Oregon needs this game to ensure at least a split on this tough two-week road trip.

If the defense can firm up against the pass, Oregon will keep its streak against the Sun Devils alive. If not, it could be a long night of listening to Jerry and Mike call the game on the radio.

MY VERDICT: Oregon Ducks 24, Arizona State Sun Devils 20

UCLA at Oregon: The Ducks Hope To Recreate The Autzen Edge

Tristan Holmes — Wed, 08 Oct 2008 16:51:58 -0400

Halfway through the regular season, we have found out quite a bit about the 2008 Oregon football team. First of all, we know the Ducks need to get a priest or rabbi or witch doctor or somebody to get rid of this quarterback curse because it has just gotten ridiculous. We know that the Ducks are probably not winning the conference this year.

The one thing that still eludes us though is just how good this team actually is.

With six games under their belt Oregon has won twice as many games as they have lost, but all of the wins have come against teams more than a couple of games below .500. Except for the fourth quarter against Boise State and the first quarter against USC, the Ducks have been severely outplayed in every phase of the game against the elite teams they have faced.

Despite the success their rivals up the road had, the Ducks ground game was anemic against the Trojans. LaGarrette Blount didn’t seem fast enough to get to the hole before it was filled with swift USC players, and Jeremiah Johnson continued to dance instead of getting straight up the field after he saw green grass ahead of him to maximize gains against the Trojans swarming defenders.

Without their signature one-two punch at running back relieving the pressure the Ducks had little to no success through the air and besides two penalty-aided drives in the first quarter were entirely shut down.

Though not given much help from the ineffective offense and unspectacular special teams, Oregon’s defense looked awful in the Coliseum. The Ducks tackled very poorly as the game went on. For all the expectations fans and the media had of the secondary coming into the season Oregon’s pass defense has been decidedly underwhelming. Play action has gouged the Ducks against every team they faced, and USC’s receivers simply seemed to be a step too fast for anyone in a white jersey.

For all the troubles the Ducks have had so far there is reason for hope this weekend. Justin Roper’s health is improving, giving the Ducks much needed depth at quarterback. The game is at home Saturday night, where the players, coaches, and crowd will be anxious to reclaim Autzen’s mystique after the Boise State fiasco.

UCLA is far from the most intimidating opponent left on Oregon’s schedule. In college football that means one thing: the Ducks absolutely cannot afford to treat UCLA like they are not the most intimidating opponent left on their schedule.

The Bruins have also struggled through quarterback injuries, and their offense seems to finally be clicking the last two weeks against the Fresno State Bulldogs and the Washington State “Randy Older Women” (sorry but I’ve waiting all season to try that out). The defense has played solidly but has struggled to make up for the graduation of Bruce Davis and has had issues when it comes to pressuring the passer.

Most Duck fans will deny they have anything in common with UW faithful, but like they say nothing unites like a common enemy. UCLA’s head man may not be public enemy number one in Eugene any more, but don’t be surprised to see some Quacker Backers dig out their old “Neuter Neuheisel” banners for Saturday night.

Winning this game is critical for the Ducks season. Daunting away games at Cal and Arizona State are next on the slate. Even then things don’t let up, with improving Arizona and feisty Stanford to deal with before the Civil War. Going 3-2 in that span would be optimistic, so for a good bowl game the Ducks must make Teddy Bears of the Bruins.

If Oregon wants to take care of business against UCLA, they must improve their execution in a number of areas. This offense keys off the running game, and the Ducks offensive line must make some holes for Blount and Johnson to work their magic. I

f the runners are performing up to their potential, the Ducks don’t need the passing game to be spectacular, but it must be consistent to keep drives going.

As always, turnovers and special teams will be vital. The Ducks have taken the ball away an impressive 12 times, but have managed to give it away 13 times.

Oregon has to improve their tackling technique or it will be a long night. UCLA will no doubt give the Ducks a heavy dose of play action, and the defense has to do a better job of reading it. The defensive backs simply cannot afford to be caught looking in the backfield while receivers fly by them, we have already seen how that turns out. The secondary has to be willing to err on the side of the pass.

But that means the front seven has to keep the Bruins from breaking big runs without safety and corner support, or at least delay the runners long enough for the secondary to fly up from their positions in coverage.

Right now Oregon has the edge in talent, but unless they improve their strategy and execution UCLA is good enough to win, even at Autzen. If Oregon plays up to their talent level this should be a blowout. If they cannot correct their past mistakes, it will not just be close, but the final score might tilt the other way. But with the crowd behind them, I think the Ducks can put the Trojans behind them and concentrate on the task at hand.

MY VERDICT: Oregon Ducks 30, California at Los Angeles Bruins 20

Oregon-USC: "All We Need Is a Little Execution, and a Lot Of Luck"

Tristan Holmes — Wed, 01 Oct 2008 16:39:35 -0400

Is it just me, or does every week seem like an entirely different college football season now?

Two weeks ago, Oregon looked like a bunch of Ducks with their heads cut off running around the field against Boise State, and the USC Trojans were the invincible lords of the west.

After Saturday, Oregon got their groove back against the Cougars, while the Trojans were shown to be mortal by a very physical Oregon State team in Corvallis.

This Saturday afternoon in the Coliseum could decide the inside track to the Pac-10 title. Despite their strong performance against the Trojans, the Beavers have already lost a game in conference, and one more slip-up would leave them all but eliminated from the title picture.

With that in mind, the Trojans could still win the Pac-10 for the umpteenth time in a row by running the table.

Oregon, on the other hand, is 2-0 in the Pac-10 despite their meltdown at home against the Broncos. If they beat USC, even a letdown against Cal or Arizona State would still leave them in the thick of the race.

Ducks fans are looking for any reason to give themselves a good feeling about their team having to play an opponent with the most raw talent in the nation away from the comforts of Autzen Stadium.

Some might be tempted to point out the similarities between the upcoming game and last year’s successful trip to Ann Arbor. Like the Wolverines, the Trojans are a team that was extremely highly regarded coming off a humbling loss to a less talented opponent.

Unfortunately for the Ducks, that is where the similarities end.

USC’s isn’t in the midst of a losing streak across seasons that will lead to a coaching change—they just hit one bump in the road. The Trojan players know that there is still a lot for them to play for. After all, they recovered from losses to Stanford and the Ducks last year to win the conference.

Also, like the Ducks after the Boise State game, they are pissed off and looking to take it out on somebody. Unfortunately for Oregon, they are the only other team on the field.

For all the publicity USC’s handful of losses in recent years has garnered, none of them has been by more than seven points, including last Thursday. USC has had more than a full week of practice to get ready for the Ducks and are hungry for redemption from last week and revenge for last year in Eugene.

If Oregon does pull off a win, you can bet your bottom dollar it will go to the wire.

The big question for Oregon’s offense, as it has been all season, is the passing game. Justin Roper’s knee has healed enough for him to play, but he was battling the flu earlier this week, and it is not known how much practice time he will get before Saturday. If the coaches decide he cannot go on Saturday, they will turn to Jeremiah Masoli.

Masoli certainly didn’t have a bad game against Washington State: 9 of 16 for 161 yards, two touchdowns, and no interceptions. However, he completed passes to a grand total of three different receivers, and his completion percentage certainly didn’t break any records for efficiency.

The Ducks' best hope with the ball is to try play as physically and hungrily as the Beavers did and run it up the gut. That means Blount going over and through the Trojans and Johnson making only quick jukes and then getting north and south, rather than cutting laterally as he likes to do.

With the team speed USC has on defense, even without Rey Maualuga, running laterally and attacking the edges simply isn’t going to do much good.

The Ducks' defense must apply consistent pressure to Mark Sanchez, something they haven’t done in most of their games. For all the sacks Oregon’s Will Tukuafu, Nick Reed, and friends have gotten, the pass rush has tended to be sporadic, leveling the quarterback one play and giving them enough time to make a sandwich the next.

Leave USC’s playmakers alone in the backfield to find a receiver downfield or a running lane, and their talent will put the game away in a hurry.

Given the damage USC’s tight ends and backs can do downfield, the Ducks have to get better pass coverage from their linebackers. The Ducks have done a very poor job executing their zone coverage schemes, even against Washington State and Utah State. Players seem to get to their spots and take root, rather than moving to players coming into their area of responsibility.

If Nick Allioti and his staff can’t fix the problems with this defensive set, it would probably be best to stick to man to man and take their chances being predictable.

For USC to recover their swagger against the Ducks, the first thing they need to do is not beat themselves. Turnovers and penalties gave the Beavers the chance to finish them off last week, and it is imperative they deny Oregon the same opportunities.

The Ducks' spread option offense lives on big plays, not steady drives. The Trojans should keep the Ducks in front of them and rely on Oregon’s young quarterbacks and inconsistent receivers to stall drives before they reach the end zone.

If USC can keep the Ducks' offense at bay and dominate time of possession, their talented playmakers will do the rest.

Oregon’s best hope to pull off the upset is to come out strong early and get some big plays on special teams to put the offense and defense in favorable positions against the Trojans.

If they can build a lead, or at least stay even, with the Trojans through the first half, they might just be able to hold off a run by USC late. If the Ducks fall behind, it will be a tall order for such a young team to mount a comeback against an opponent with greater depth on the road.

USC will win if they put distance between themselves and the Ducks, and probably if they can force the game to come down to a field goal, given Matt Evenson’s struggles this season.

Oregon won’t have as many opportunities against the Trojans as they did against any team they have played so far, so to have a chance they must take advantage of all the ones they get. That means no dropped passes, no missed field goals, and no leaving USC ball carriers alone in space.

I make no secret of the fact that I am a rabid Oregon Ducks fan, and my prediction for the score reflects that. It is a prediction based on faith in one’s team, not cold hard facts. If I had to put a percentage on the odds of this prediction being right, though, it would probably be less than 50 percent.

Still, much stranger things than the Ducks winning in the Coliseum happen almost every week in college football.

MY VERDICT: Oregon Ducks 28, Southern California Trojans 27

Oregon-Washington State: No Excuses, No Respite

Tristan Holmes — Thu, 25 Sep 2008 21:07:49 -0400

I hesitate to come up with catchy names for my articles now, because last week’s became strangely prophetic. The answer to the question was the Boise State Broncos.

Oregon seemed to have all their Ducks in a row. They survived a scare against Purdue, but they were returning to Autzen to finish up their non-conference schedule and would get a warm-up game against WSU in Pullman before Roper came back to lead them into the Coliseum.

The problem was that Boise State had plans of its own.

It is extremely tempting to make excuses for the Ducks after last week. They lost their second-string QB to a late hit from the Broncos; Walter Thurmond III wasn’t playing; if they had made a field goal and their two-point conversion, they would have been able to force overtime.

But make no mistake; Oregon just flat-out got beaten by the Broncos. Thurmond didn’t play, but Talmudge Jackson III (has there ever been a college team with two “the thirds” who had playing time in the secondary before?) certainly didn’t lose the game for the Ducks.

You can talk about field goals, but Boise State also missed one. Let both kickers be perfect and Oregon still would have lost by two. Failing the two-point try wasn’t a gaffe by the Ducks; the Broncos were ready and able to defend it.

Put the could’a, would’a, should’as aside. For three quarters, Boise State simply out hustled, out muscled, out coached, and out executed Oregon in supposedly one of the toughest venues for visitors in college football. By the time the Ducks started airing it out it was too little, too late.

Boise State’s coaches went max protect to prevent the Ducks from getting a consistent pass rush and used movement and unusual formations to create mismatches that neutralized Oregon’s playmakers in the secondary.

Kellen Moore played a superb game, and he and his receivers made the most of their opportunities to carve the Ducks defense into deli-thin slices.

Oregon didn’t prepare well enough to deal with Masoli’s injury. Chris Harper never looked comfortable on passing plays (though an aggravated rotator cuff injury certainly didn’t help) and the play calling was entirely one-dimensional.

Boise State loaded the box to keep the Ducks from being able to drive down the field with runs up the middle. The Broncos also used their defensive speed to keep plays from being made on the outside. When the Ducks were desperate enough to change QBs, the score made the offense one-dimensional with passes.

Despite all the issues the Broncos exposed, the Ducks head in to Pullman as heavy favorites. The Cougars have had issues with QB injuries as well and haven’t even looked competitive against most of the teams they have played. The offense has struggled in all phases and the defense has allowed nearly 40 points per game.

The prognosticators seem to believe that the Ducks are just too talented for the Cougars to keep up with, even at home. But if Oregon’s execution doesn’t improve by leaps and bounds from last week, Washington State is going to have every opportunity to win this game.

Special teams have been a disappointment so far for the Ducks, despite Jairus Byrd’s touchdown against the Boilermakers.

Matt Evenson has struggled at kicker this season, and must improve his technique to get back to his 2007 form. There will be close games this year, and Oregon needs to be able to win off a field goal if that is what it takes. Right now, such a situation would look bleak indeed.

The defense has talent enough to keep up with almost anyone, but they have not tackled well at times and looked utterly lost against the Broncos.

It doesn’t matter how good the Ducks defenders are if they are out of position against the playmakers on the opposing offense. Nick Allioti and his staff need to focus on improving their players’ ability to make adjustments on the field and ensure they line up against the proper man.

On offense, it all comes down to balance. The Ducks need to be able to choose runs and passes based on the down and distance, not what won’t produce a turnover. That means they need to find consistency at the quarterback position, more easily said than done with the string of injuries.

Darron Thomas was nothing short of heroic for a true freshman facing his first game time in the fourth quarter last week. Masoli remains ahead of him on the depth chart, but if he struggles on the road, how long until the Duck’ coaches yank him for Thomas?

With the redshirt officially gone, Oregon might as well try to get as much out of the impressive looking young player as they can this season.

Last week’s loss was the kind of domination that can turn a season on its head. If Oregon learns from their mistakes against the Broncos, they can still pull off a great year.

But if they let their confidence go, if they let Boise State help the Cougars beat them in Pullman, the situation becomes bleak indeed for a successful run in the Pac-10.

If Washington State wants to pull an upset they would do well to copy Boise State’s strategies. Use max protect to buy time for the quarterback and move tight ends and running backs around to create mismatches against the Ducks' linebackers in the passing game.

On defense, load the box to stuff Jeremiah Johnson and LeGarrette Blount and take your chances with Oregon’s rotating quarterbacks and inconsistent receivers.

With the Cougars having their own issues to address, I expect the Ducks' overall talent edge will be the difference in this game. But if Washington State starts executing and Oregon relapses into the form they showed through three quarters last week, make no mistake, there is a very real danger of an upset.

One loss to a team they were supposed to beat the Ducks can deal with, but two could start a downward spiral that ends at the bottom of the Pac-10 standings.

MY VERDICT: Oregon Ducks 24, Washington State Cougars 20

Oregon Ducks vs. Boise State Broncos: Who Needs The Forward Pass Anyway?

Tristan Holmes — Wed, 17 Sep 2008 18:38:23 -0400

In what was a nightmare of a weekend for the Pac-10 conference, the Oregon Ducks managed to help salvage some dignity for the conference by squeaking by the Purdue Boilermakers in double overtime.

The Ducks didn’t do themselves any favors, dropping five passes, turning the ball over four times and giving up an eighty yard touchdown run. Fortunately for the Oregon faithful Purdue didn’t score for over half of the game between the first and fourth quarters and missed two critical field goals, allowing the Ducks to win the game in overtime.

As if the inconsistent play wasn’t bad enough, Oregon’s coaches must deal with a knee injury to quarterback Justin Roper that will leave him sidelined for at least two weeks.

The Ducks can take some comfort in that they will host the Smurf Turf Brigade in Autzen Stadium Saturday night. Boise State is undefeated after crushing Idaho State and soundly defeating the Bowling Green team that upset Pitt.

Whether or not they will fare as well against a team as athletic as Oregon remains to be seen, but the Ducks were supposed to be too fast for Purdue and we all saw how that turned out.

There is no denying that the biggest obstacle for the Ducks is settling their quarterback play until Roper comes back. Jeremiah Masoli was an effective passer against Washington in the season opener, but the offense was out of sync with him behind center against Utah State.

Chris Harper has been an effective option runner, but his only passes came against the Aggies after the game was well in hand. It is probable that the two will rotate behind center with Masoli attempting most of the passes and Harper doing most of the running. It is imperative that no matter who is taking the snaps from center that the rhythm and timing be there for Oregon’s offense to be effective.

Boise State will go to Eugene as an underdog despite Roper’s injury, but this is a big game for the Broncos. With the Washington schools in decisive downswings right now, and Oregon State off to another slow start, this Saturday’s game arguably represents a showdown by the two pre-eminent college football powers in the Northwest states.

The Broncos would love nothing more than a win against the Ducks to strengthen their recruiting, while Oregon needs to sweep their non-conference slate to have momentum going into their daunting conference schedule.

If you like creative play calling and running backs, this game is for you. With the Ducks wounded throwers, and Boise State’s freshman QB Kellen Moore making his first start on the road in hostile Autzen, neither team wants to have to put the game in the hands of the passing game.

Expect a heavy dose of Jeremiah Johnson and LaGarrette Blount for the Ducks, matched blow for blow by Fiesta Bowl hero (not to mention hopeless romantic) Ian Johnson and his change up man Jeremy Avery.

Expect the Ducks to load the box and leave their talented corners (Jairus “Big” Byrd and Walter Thurmond III, say it right and their names even rhyme!) on an island and dare Moore to beat them with his arm. By the same token, until the Ducks receivers show that they won’t stop drives with dropped balls, the Broncos will likely take their chances and key on Johnson, Blount, and Harper.

The winner of this game will be the team that maintains the best balance on offense to loosen things up for their runners, and that makes the fewest errors to maintain the edge in the field position struggle.

The Ducks defense and special teams saved Oregon’s feathers against Purdue last week, and they will need a similarly sterling performance for an offense depleted at QB to outscore the Broncos. But with the Autzen edge and the Broncos inexperience, I give the edge to the Ducks.

MY VERDICT: Oregon Ducks 27, Boise State Broncos 23

Oregon Ducks Need To Avoid A Shootout With Purdue Boilermakers

Tristan Holmes — Wed, 10 Sep 2008 14:43:40 -0400

The players may not start classes until the last week in September (all public universities in Oregon have three ten week quarters rather than the more usual fifteen week semesters so they start and end the academic year later), but the Ducks have their first major test this Saturday.

After blowing out Columbia River rival, Washington, and Utah State at home, Oregon leaves the comforts of Autzen behind and travels to West Lafayette, Indiana to play the Purdue Boilermakers.

There is a lot to like so far about this Oregon team, though there have been some hiccups that underdog Purdue is no doubt eager to exploit.

The good news is that Justin Roper has staked his claim to the starting quarterback spot despite a concussion suffered against the Huskies. D

espite throwing two interceptions, Roper has had full command of Oregon’s spread option scheme. The timing and rhythm are there for the Ducks whenever he is in the backfield. Though a far cry from Dennis Dixon, Roper even managed 35 yards and a touchdown on the ground against the Aggies.

Oregon has found several consistent play makers on offense, and the o-line is at full strength.

The defense has also played well, allowing less than 20 points to opposing offenses in both games this season (one of Utah State’s touchdowns was a recovered fumble in the end zone). Neither of the Ducks opponents gained a hundred yards on the ground.

Special teams have been good, if not great. Matt Evenson improved on a shaky opening week to go 9-9 on extra points and 1-1 on field goals against Utah State.

Not everything has gone Oregon’s way, though. The Ducks best play maker at tailback, Jeremiah Johnson, injured his shoulder against the Aggies, though thankfully he will play at Purdue. The defense has gone to sleep at times in the second quarter of games, and the highly regarded Ducks secondary has yet to intercept a pass.

It is difficult to judge Purdue at this point in the season with their only game so far being against Northern Colorado. Curtis Painter is still his old self, however, leading a high octane passing attack for the Boilermakers.

This game is a terrific opportunity for Oregon’s secondary to show they really are one of the elite groups in the country. How the Boilermaker’s defense will perform against higher-caliber competition is still unknown though.

All the normal clichés about how to win at football (turnovers, special teams, execution, yadda yadda) apply even more on the road, especially when travelling across time zones.

When Purdue has the ball it will be a match up of strength against strength, with Painter and his receivers trying to exploit Oregon’s secondary and keep the Ducks pass rush in check. There is no doubt that the Boilermakers will move the ball through the air.

Oregon’s best bet on defense is to get consistent pressure on the quarterback to stop drives cold with forced interceptions or sacks to get Purdue out of down and distance. The Ducks cannot afford to let Purdue’s running game get going. Dealing with the Boilermakers passing offense is enough to worry about. If they can mix it up, they will score in bunches.

It all comes down to defense if Purdue wants to pull the upset. Oregon’s spread option can strike quickly enough to keep up with the Boilermakers in a shootout. If the Ducks can consistently move the ball on every drive and keep Painter on the sidelines they have a good chance of keeping Purdue at arm’s length.

Even though the Ducks gain most of their yards on the ground, they tend not to possess the ball very long. The best way to make up for that is to score early and often and Oregon has the players to do it. If it is a close game, Oregon has a slight edge in a duel of kickers.

If the Ducks can build a lead early and keep up with Purdue’s offense, they will pass this test with flying colors. What they cannot afford to do is get into a shootout where the last team with the ball wins, because Purdue has what it takes to get it done in crunch time.

MY VERDICT: Oregon Ducks 34, Purdue Boilermakers 24

Ducks vs. Aggies: Oregon Seeks To Overcome QB Curse and Keep Rumblin'

Tristan Holmes — Wed, 03 Sep 2008 14:53:33 -0400

When Jeremiah Masoli (MAH-su-li) was signed this off-season most observers (myself included) thought it an extravagance by the Ducks offensive staff. But it turns out you can never have too many quarterbacks.

Let us take a look at the recent history of Oregon signal callers:

2007 practice: second string Nate Costa tears ligaments in knee, out for season.

2007 vs. Arizona State: Starter Dennis Dixon partially tears ACL, out for game.

2007 vs. Arizona: Starter Dennis Dixon tears ACL, out for season. Third string Brady Leaf injures ankle, stays in game.

2007 vs. UCLA: Third String Brady Leaf aggravates ankle, out for season.

2007 vs. Oregon State: Fourth string Cody Kempt concussed, out for game.

2008 off season: Cody Kempt transfers.

2008 fall camp: Starter Nate Costa re-aggravates knee, has surgery, out for season.

2008 vs. Washington: Second String Justin Roper concussed, out for game.

This means that Oregon’s last five games have produced injuries to one or more quarterbacks. With the kind of training facilities available in Eugene, I have a hard time believing this the fault of poor training and conditioning, just bad luck.

Roper looked sharp until his injury and it took time for Masoli to settle into a rhythm. But he proved effective in the second half, rotating with running threat Chris Harper and helping the Ducks beat the hated Huskies 44-10. Chip Kelley and Mike Bellotti’s decision to bring Masoli in from the JuCo ranks appears to have been a wise one.

Assuming all goes well, Roper is scheduled to start against Utah State this Saturday. Fenuki Tupou returns at offensive tackle after serving an NCAA mandated suspension for taking perks from an agent, allowing Max Unger to return to center.

The Aggies will be heavy underdogs, the cellar dwellers of the WAC against a top five Pac-10 team in hostile territory. Utah State will be fired up for an upset bid, but the fact of the matter is that there is simply no excuse for Oregon to lose this game.

It is said that the biggest improvement a football team makes comes between weeks one and two. If the Ducks want to improve from their impressive opening week showing, here is what they need to accomplish against the Aggies.

Settle the quarterback position

Some fans have speculated that Roper has merely been keeping the seat warm for Masoli who will take the reins after he has time to digest Chip Kelley’s complex spread option scheme.

If that is true, he seemed to have most of it down in the second half last week. Bellotti has used two headed quarterbacks before, but usually only until one improves their game enough to raise themselves above the competition.

Oregon’s coaches need to decide if Roper’s decision making and passing ability allow him to run the offense better than the more physically gifted Masoli. There may already be a quarterback controversy brewing among the fan base, the last thing the team needs is one in the locker room as well.

Have Chris Harper Complete some passes

Though a quarterback, the athletic Harper didn’t attempt a single throw against Washington. Harper’s primary role is serving as a powerful, quick option runner in a Tim Tebow/Ryan Perriloux mode.

That is understood by everyone, including opposing defenses, but as has been demonstrated it can be very effective. To be its most effective however, there needs to be the threat that what seems like a standard zone read option or quarterback draw could turn out to be a passing play.

Even if Harper runs nine out of ten times he touches the ball, the very fact that he could throw will make defenses hesitate just enough to get critical extra yards in close games.

Spread the wealth on offense

The Ducks put up a lot of points against the Huskies, but only a small minority of players had a hand in moving the ball down field. Only four different players caught passes, and play-making tight end Ed Dickson was not one of them.

Terrence Scott was a pleasant surprise as the leading receiver, but he and the other two starting wideouts can’t do it alone. The point of the spread option is to create one on one matchups in open space to take advantage of mismatches with opposing defenders. If opposing defenses can key on a few players, the entire scheme unravels. Oregon’s offense needs to start using all the tools at their disposal.

Sweat the small stuff

Oregon had eight penalties against Washington for 85 yards. They can spare that kind of numbers against Utah State at home, but next week or the week after? The defense performed admirably, limiting Jake Locker and shutting down the Huskies running backs.

However, Washington also dropped some passes when receivers were open. Arizona State and USC won’t make as many of those mistakes, the defense needs to be in the area on every play. They cannot afford to take the second quarter off and spot opponents a 10 – 0 run either.

Matt Evenson is a solid placekicker, but must improve on his first outing of this season where he missed both a field goal and an extra point. The Ducks cannot afford those kinds of mistakes down the stretch.

Oregon should have a fully healthy team this week, and if they can accomplish these goals they will be able to comfortably defeat Utah State and will be in great position to continue to improve each week and make a strong run in the conference.

If they cannot, they might struggle to succeed later in the season, and even this week’s game could be uncomfortably close.

MY VERDICT

Oregon Ducks 50, Utah State Aggies 17

QB Justin Roper, Oregon Look to Beat Washington in Week One

Tristan Holmes — Wed, 27 Aug 2008 20:40:45 -0400

College football is finally ready to kick off, and for the Ducks it starts with a bang. The 101st Columbia River Clash (it’s not an official nickname yet) between the Oregon Ducks, a team trying to get back to the top, and the Washington Huskies, a program that has spent far too long in the cellar, on Saturday.

The demons surrounding the Ducks' quarterback corps have yet to be exorcised. Nate Costa was the heir apparent to Dennis Dixon, but he missed his chance to play last season, having torn his knee ligaments before Dixon’s injury.

Despite Justin Roper’s impressive performance in leading Oregon to a blowout of the favored South Florida Bulls in last year’s Sun Bowl, Costa was named the starter after spring practice. But last week Costa tweaked his knee again, and he will miss at least eight weeks recovering from surgery.

Until further notice, this is again Roper’s team.

Many fear that Roper’s lack of mobility will severely hamper Oregon’s spread option offense. However, he is not a lead foot in the backfield, having showed enough legs to move effectively in the pocket.

What he can’t do is scramble up the gut after faking the handoff for the zone read for seven to 10 yards a pop like Dixon was able to do, or even for a solid four or five like Costa was assumed capable of. Roper has shown effectiveness as a passer, but don’t be surprised to see a lot of Chris Harper or Darron Thomas in a Tim Tebow/Ryan Perrilloux direct carry role to keep Washington off balance.

Most believe Oregon will win this game with some cushion, given the Autzen edge and last year’s three-touchdown differential in Seattle. What most seem to conveniently forget is that game was tied going into the fourth quarter despite the Ducks running up and down the field seemingly at will.

Washington was able to break big plays on Oregon’s defense, both in the air and on the ground. The Ducks' D improved as 2007 progressed and returns a number of key starters, especially in the secondary.

But the loss of Kevin Garret to disciplinary issues and a continuing lack of playmakers at defensive tackle mean that there are still questions to be answered.

Assuming the Ducks don’t give the game away with turnovers or special teams blunders, a few key factors will guarantee a victory over the hated Huskies.

LeGarrette Blount should pound between the tackles and allow Jeremiah Johnson to line up all over the field and use his speed and cutting ability to gash opposing defenses.

After being the victims of 465 yards on the ground last year, though, it is a sure bet that Washington will be playing plenty of defenders in the box. Roper and his young, inconsistent receivers must take some pressure off the running game (here’s hoping that newfangled eye treatment at Nike can cure Jaison Williams' drops) to keep drives moving.

With the offense unlikely to drop another 50 points on the Huskies' D, Oregon’s veteran defense needs to limit Washington’s big plays and not give up more than 30 points.

On the flip side, Washington is fielding a young defense that is not highly regarded. There is much potential on offense, but it is young and unproven, and Autzen Stadium is not a great place to wet ones feet.

The Huskies must find a way to feed off the hatred and win the turnover battle to have a chance at an upset. Until further notice, this team sinks or swims with Jake Locker. If he can use his talents to create mismatches against Oregon’s defenders and open up big plays, this game will be a lot closer than most people think.

MY VERDICT: Oregon 38, Washington 30

Conference Calls

Oregon State gets going early with another Pac-10 matchup against Stanford. The Beavers have a lot to replace, but getting Sammie Stroughter back is a massive boost. The Cardinal should be more competitive than they were most of last year, but unless the “Fly Sweep” suddenly stops working, I give the edge to the fighting Buck Tooths.

The folks at Qwest Field will be treated to an offensive spectacle with the Oklahoma State Cowboys coming to town to play Brandon Gibson and the Cougars. With a new quarterback, new coach, and offseason troubles burdening them, I can’t see the Cougs keeping up with the Man Who Is 40’s offense.

USC is probably the most talented team in the nation, but for a national title run they will need to see more consistency from their stars. Even with a hobbled Mark Sanchez, the Trojans will be more than a match for Virginia, but will they find enough mojo to carry over into next week’s tilt with you know who?

If anyone can explain Cal to me, please do. No matter how hard I think about it, I cannot tell if these Bears will resemble the team who started 5-0 and out-executed the Dixon-led Ducks in Eugene, or the team that looked totally lost following one major blunder against the Beavers last year. As a shot in the dark, I’ll pick Michigan State to prolong the troubles in the Bay Area.

Arizona and Arizona State open with warm-up opponents in Idaho and Northern Arizona, and barring an upset of Appalachian proportions, they should get off to a positive start.

As successful as Rick Neuheisel and Norm Chow have been, they have their work cut out for them with a UCLA squad running on its third quarterback and a patchwork offensive line. If the Bruins defense can make up for the loss of pass rush machine Bruce Davis, they might have a decent season, but Tennessee is too good for them to handle right now.

College Football 2008: Oregon Ducks Preview

Tristan Holmes — Mon, 18 Feb 2008 12:12:22 -0500

The Oregon Ducks football team went through a roller coaster season in '07, elevating as high as No. 2 in the national rankings before a bevy of injuries (the backbreaker being Dennis Dixon’s ACL tear) contributed to three straight losses.

That stretch included a heart breaking overtime loss to arch-rival Oregon State, the first time the Beavers won in Eugene since 1993.

Yet, after some rest and regrouping the Ducks showed their prowess when a surprisingly effective freshman QB, Justin Roper and healthy star running back Jonathon Stewart led the way to a 56-21 shellacking of the favored South Florida Bulls in the Sun Bowl.

Mike Bellotti and his staff went on to land a solid recruiting class (which would rise meteorically in the rankings if Terrelle Pryor can somehow be coaxed away from Big Ten country), which begs the question, what can college football expect from the Ducks in 2008?

There are gaping holes to fill on offense, but the cupboard is not bare talent wise, though it is lacking experience in some areas.

Dixon’s graduation with fellow senior Brady Leaf leaves the unsettling dilemma of naming a new starting quarterback. Redshirt sophomore Nate Costa was actually ahead of Roper on the depth chart before tearing his ACL (sound familiar?) in practice last season, and the two will likely compete throughout the off-season for the job.

Two four-star recruits, however, muddy the picture. Darron Thomas has a similar look and playing style to Dixon, who despite his early struggles would almost undoubtedly have been a Heisman Trophy finalist had he avoided injury last season.

Chris Harper is listed as an athlete, but was brought in to compete for time in the backfield and has said he firmly intends to play quarterback. Roper is the only known commodity as a starter, but betting men are saying that Costa will most likely be making the reads against Washington to open the season.

If Thomas and Harper both impress in camp, it is possible that the '07 Sun Bowl star could find himself as far down as fourth on Oregon’s depth chart. Should Pryor decide to don the green and yellow, the convoluted situation will become completely unpredictable.

Recruiting experts do not believe the Ducks will have to face this dilemma though.

Jonathan Stewart’s early departure for the NFL leaves a gaping void at tailback, but “backup” Jeremiah Johnson has the quickness, speed, and cutting ability (not to mention a crowd pleasing stiff arm) to be a 1,000 rusher himself, assuming he gets his grades in order.

Now a senior, Johnson could be called upon to carry the offense while the new faces in the passing game mesh. Junior College transfer LaGarrette Blount lacks Stewart's speed, but is a powerful and productive runner who some compare to former USC standout LenDale White.

He will look to bring Oregon the “thunder” style of runner to complement Johnson’s “lightning.” Andre Crenshaw could see time in relief of Johnson, as he possesses a similar skill set and performed admirably as a change of pace runner for Stewart after Johnson’s injury last season.

Graduation leaves Oregon razor thin at wide receiver, losing two fifth-year seniors and Cameron Colvin.

The good news is that leading receiver Jaison Williams returns; the bad news is that his inconsistency plagued him throughout last season. Though he possesses a combination of size, speed and strength to be considered among the elite receivers in the country, William’s hands have earned him the dubious nickname “fifty-fifty” among Ducks fans. The nickname aptly describes his catching ability.

Junior Derrick Jones' recent trouble with the law for marijuana possession leaves his future with the football team in question; this is not his first offence having been suspended for several games last season. If his participation with the track team is any indication though, he will likely remain on the roster.

Sophomores Aaron Pflugrad and Jeffrey Maehl are the only other wide outs with meaningful experience, but if Jones keeps his nose clean and the recruits (such as 6-6 former tight end Dion Jordan) perform well enough in camp Maehl could be moved back to safety.

Ed Dickson provides a play-making presence at tight end and may be called upon to contribute a bigger role this season.

While the skill positions undergo considerable reshuffling the offensive line returns three-fifths intact.

Center Max Unger returns to lead the OL unit in his senior season, and the backups who will step in to replace the graduated starters have significant game experience. Several four-star recruits from the past two seasons ensure enough depth to keep fresh bodies on the field, leading to hopes that 2008’s line can be just as effective as 2007’s.

Matt Evenson returns as an effective, if unspectacular place-kicker along with long snapper Spencer Young, giving hope that the Ducks will not be left out in the cold in tight situations where a few points will decide the game. Oregon will need a new holder to replace Leaf, who graduated. That may be Roper who took over for an injured Leaf last season.

Punter Josh Syria will look to improve on a solid debut season. The kick-coverage teams who, despite vast improvement under dedicated special teams coach Tom Osborne, still allowed opponents generous field position too often for many fans’ liking last season.

Andiel Brown comes back as a solid returner, though look for several younger players like true freshman LaMichael James, to find playing time in the return game.

The defense returns a corps of experienced and talented players that filled in for several injured starters and improved toward the end of '07.

The Duck defense may need to carry the team early as the new playmakers on offense find their footing.

The strength of the team is generally considered to be the secondary, where leading tackler Patrick Chung returns for his senior year at rover. A ball hawk and an extremely physical player, Chung ranks as one of the top safeties on the West Coast, though sometimes out of position having to support against the run.

Hero of the USC game Mathew Harper is gone, and someone will have to step up and be a playmaker in his stead defending the pass. Junior Titus Jackson seems the most likely candidate, though other DB’s could push for time with strong off seasons.

Corners Walter Thurmond III and Jairus Byrd will start for the third consecutive season and both have shown they can be solid playmakers.

Nickleback Willie Glasper was inconsistent last season, especially against USC where he gave up several big plays.

While rightly considered the strength of the defense, Oregon’s secondary is at its best when keeping opposing playmakers in front of them. Several teams found vulnerabilities in the Duck’s coverage schemes in the 15-20 yard range last season and Oregon must improve in this area to make a strong run in '08.

Though speedy and swarming, fans and coaches alike would like to see the Duck’s front seven make more plays on their own, rather than simply filling holes and leaving it to the DB’s to take down opposing ball carriers.

Defensive tackle has been an iffy spot in the lineup ever since the departure of Haloti Ngata, but seniors Ra’Shon Harris and Cole Linehan will lead the rotation and try to improve security in the interior.

Off the edge come Nick Reed and Will Tukuafu, both excellent pass rushers who will lead the charge against opposing quarterbacks. Reed won Defensive Player of the Week honors in Pac-10 last year, and Tukuafu has been one of the most consistent players on the line.

Behind these two is little experience however, young players must step up to earn playing time and keep these two fresh for those pivotal drives late in games.

Linebacker looked to be a problem area last year and several injuries only exacerbated things. The replacements performed well, however and gained invaluable experience for this year.

Middle linebacker John Bacon lacks top end speed but is a solid physical presence in the center of the field. Jerome Boyd and Kevin Garrett look to improve on their numbers from last year and keep opponents from getting to the second level.

This group has better size numbers than several line backing units from years past, but has yet to find a true playmaker in the mode of a Blair Phillips or an Anthony Trucks.

With so much inexperience on offense, it is unlikely Oregon can make another national title run, but there is enough talent on hand to hope for good things.

If the defense improves and the running game remains strong while the new QB and receivers gel a 7-5 or 8-4 season is possible.

Injuries nearly spelled complete disaster for the Ducks last year, and without Dixon and Stewart the '08 squad cannot afford to lose many starters and remain competitive.

The schedule is also daunting, with USC, Cal, and Oregon State all being away games this year. The senior leaders on this team must join with the coaches in forming a mentally and physically well conditioned squad that can play well through occasional adversity in order to succeed.

If they can, there is enough raw talent for good things to happen.