Bleacher Report - Articles by Nick Tyson

Two Years Running: Lincecum Wins Cy Young Second Year In a Row

Nick Tyson — Sat, 28 Nov 2009 17:54:17 -0500

And the 2009 Cy Young Award goes to...Tim Lincecum.

For the second year in a row Tim "The Freak" Lincecum, took home the hardware, earning the Cy Young Award for the National League, given to the finest pitcher in the league.

But was Lincecum truly deserving of the award in 2009?

In '08 he seemed the most dominant pitcher far and away and rightfully so he was voted the award winner. This year, Cardinal pitchers Chris Carpenter and Adam Wainwright had good arguments in favor of, well, themselves.

The most obvious starting point in looking at a pitcher's success is his Earned Run Average (ERA), and his total number of wins. Comparing the three pitchers in these two categories looks like this:

Chris Carpenter 17-4, 2.24

Adam Wainwright 19-8, 2.63

Tim Lincecum 15-7, 2.48

In terms of the combination of wins and low ERA, Carpenter appears to be the best candidate, followed by Wainwright and Lincecum fairly evenly. However, wins and losses can be deceiving, as much of this is decided not by the quality of the pitcher, but rather by the quality of his team, and their ability to score runs and win games for him.

Instead we must combine these stats with others such as innings (showing how reliable and how much of a workhorse these pitchers are), BAA (showing how hittable they are and how much they dominate other teams), WHIP (showing their efficiency and ability to not only allow few hits but also few walks), and finally K/9 innings (displaying the pure power and dominance of the pitcher).

Tim Lincecum Innings (225), BAA (.206), WHIP (1.04), K/9 innings (10.4)

Chris Carpenter Innings (193), BAA (.226), WHIP (1.01), K/9 innings (6.7)

Adam Wainwright Innings (233), BAA (.244), WHIP (1.21), K/9 innings (8.2)

Lincecum is either first or second in all four of these categories, and in two of them he is clearly dominant over both Carpenter and Wainwright. As a whole, Carpenter is the best pitcher of the three when it comes to ERA and Wins. He had great control that also allowed him to seldom walk hitters.

However, as an all-around pitcher, Lincecum takes the cake. He was able to rack up a good number of wins (15), while dominating the competition unlike any other pitcher in the league. The voters made the right choice; Lincecum deserved the award and is the finest in the NL.

NCAA Cross Country: Stanford The Team To Beat

Nick Tyson — Sat, 14 Nov 2009 15:49:26 -0500

How many years has it been since we have not been gazing upwards at the Division One cross country dynasty that is Oregon Cross Country? They were the Yankees of college running, truly. But now for the first time in a while, it is looking like the Ducks could be in jeopardy of not placing at the top five at the NCAA Championships.

Just in the west alone are Portland, Washington, Northern Arizona, Brigham Young, and Colorado to start. This combined with many strong teams in the Midwest and Northeast, and it seems like there are more good teams in the hunt this year than in any of the past ten years.

However, there is one fact that seems undeniable: Stanford is in a league of its own, and the real race at Nationals this year will be for second place.

Led by standout and NCAA favorite Chris Derrick, the Cardinal head their strongest team in school history. In the prestigious PAC-10 meet, Stanford placed four runners in the top ten, six in the top fifteen, and all in the top twenty, scoring a meager 28 points in a trounce of Oregon (28-45).

Just two weeks later, today, Stanford scored even fewer points (27), placing their top four in the top ten and beating second place Portland by a 50+ point margin (27-84) and Oregon by an even greater margin (27-109), the latter two of which are considered top five teams in the country.

But what may be the most exciting thing about this Stanford team, is that they return a full top seven in 2010, and it could be one of the most dominating teams in the history of NCAA Cross Country.

Just this year alone they look to have two runners in the top ten at Nationals (Derrick and Junior Elliott Heath), and between sophomore Jake Riley junior and Justin Marpole-Bird they could have four total runners finish as All-Americans.

It will certainly be exciting to watch in the next few weeks to see how dominant Stanford is over the rest of the field. It was only two years ago that Chris Derrick a high school senior, was leading an inexperienced Nequea Valley High School team to the state and Nike national championship titles.

The trifecta of Derrick, Fernandez, and Puskedra and now he looks to lead a bit more experienced Stanford team to its first championship since 2003 and only its fifth ever.

BJ Upton And The Cubs: A Match Fit For Marriage?

Nick Tyson — Sun, 04 Oct 2009 11:45:39 -0400

Well Cub’s fans, the season is essentially over, save for a game vs. the D-Backs today that could not mean anything less, with the exception of watching some young prospects. It has been no secret the last few weeks/months, that many teams have been scouting Tampa Bay’s BJ Upton.

Upton, a second overall pick in the 2002 draft straight out of high school, has just turned 25. But, save for his first full season at the major league level, he has been rather disappointing in terms of performance, especially this year, possibly keeping the Ray’s out of playoff contention. Is it possible for the Cubs to get Upton, and would he even make a good fit on the struggling club?

The first question is, would the Rays ever consider letting Upton go? The answer is pretty unclear for this. He has been extremely injury prone over his entire major league career, playing through it at times, but missing more than half of the 2007 season with injuries. And maybe the biggest reason they would be willing to trade Upton, is because he has been known to have some attitude problems in the clubhouse, and he has also had further problems not hustling out ground balls, or giving 100 percent during all game action.

But, Upton has the talent, and the potential, to be so good that it would be very difficult for the front office to trade him away, with thoughts that he could very well turn out to be the player they had dreamed of when they drafted him second overall.

Then there is the second, and probably more important question: Would Upton make a good fit for the Cubs, and would they ever even consider making a deal for him? The short answer is probably not, and it has more to do with his history as a bad “team player” than it does his actual performance.

In addition, another injury prone player is probably the last thing that a team like the Cubs needs, seeing how things have played out for them the last few years. But, the team does badly need a center fielder who can both hit, and play defense, and Upton has shown great range in the outfield even as a guy whose original position was second base.

Also, with the exception of 2009, Upton has shown great awareness at the plate, with on-base-percentages upwards of .380 in both 2007 and 2008, a number that looks fantastic if you put it next to anything on the Cub’s current roster.

I do not think this deal will happen. It is pretty complex, and the Cubs would need to trade away a lot of talent in exchange for a guy who is certainly not the most reliable in the game. However, I do think that the ball club should explore further into Upton, and see if they can possibly get him without giving all that much up. At this point, it does not look like the team has all that much to lose.

Minor Leaguers To Watch 9/26

Nick Tyson — Sat, 26 Sep 2009 20:10:58 -0400

The season is coming to its end, and the postseason is almost upon us. Here I will take a quick look at a few of the top minor leaguers as the year comes to a close. These are guys who have not quite made it up to the big leagues yet but will be key in the future of the teams' success.

Wilson Ramos, Minnesota Twins:

The top ranked catcher in the organization and one of the top catchers in all the minor leagues. Ramos was acquired in 2004 as a free agent out of Venezuela, and he has continued to progress since.

After a successful year in 2008, he was moved up and began this year looking for a possible spot on the major league club. Unfortunately, Ramos hit injury early on and was forced to miss about half of the season.

But when he came back he tore the cover off of the ball, hitting .317 in over 200 at-bats, and also slugging over .450. His defensive abilities remain a bit questionable, but it appears he will be one of the key prospects for a developing Twin's team.

Che-Hsuan Lin, Boston Red Sox:

An extremely athletic centerfielder, the Bo-Sox were lucky to draw Lin to their team. Lin's defensive abilities are his strongest, and he has yet to develop much power, but he has the athleticism to become a truly excellent player, and he is only just 21 years old.

Lin also posses a rare ability among young players to hit to all fields, which will benefit him greatly as he moves up through the farm system and into the major leauges. Lin's best gift comes from his speed and range in the outfield, which is better than almost any minor leaguer.

His ability to think intelligently and make smart decisions will eventually lead to great success in the majors. He only batted .264 this year, but had an OBP of .355 and stole 26 bases, an impressive feat in only 131 games.

Milton Bradley, Counting Down The Days

Nick Tyson — Sun, 20 Sep 2009 21:15:42 -0400

Well, it looks as though Milton Bradley may not only be done for the season, but done as a Cub. The season has less than half a month left of is looking more and more like a playoff-less Cub’s team, and the front office may decide it is in their best interest to shut Bradley down. As Lou Pinella himself said, “''Look, we're not going to play people that are hurt. If they're hurt, we're not going to play them.''

Bradley’s three year, $30 million contract includes a third year which could be nullified if he finishes 2009 on the DL (looking more and more imminent), or if he is unable to play because of his knee by April 15, 2010 (less likely, as the problem appears less serious currently than it has in the past).

And while the Cub’s front office would probably love to get rid of this deal completely, if they do so, they will have lawyers coming at them from all sides. The best answer to all of the problems would probably be to avoid this route. As Al, editor and chief of Bleed Cubbie Blue, an online Cub’s fan-site, says, “If they have to shut him down, just do it and trade him. Don’t try this weasel method.”

However, from his own quotes and actions, it appears that Bradley may want out of Chicago himself. From the Daily Herald, “"It’s just not a positive environment. I need a stable, healthy, enjoyable environment. There’s too many people everywhere in your face with a microphone asking the same questions repeatedly. Everything is just bashing you. You got out there and you play harder than anybody on the field and never get credit for it. It’s just negativity.” This coming from one of the most detested players either league has seen in the last ten years.

The only winner in this situation is looking like it could be a minor leaguer seeking his first trip to the majors. 2006 first round draft pick Tyler Colvin could see some major league action in the last week or so of the major league season, enough to give him the glimpse he needs to make it back full time in 2010.

BABIP Numbers Speak for Themselves, Luck or Not

Nick Tyson — Sat, 13 Jun 2009 15:33:53 -0400

There is a certain amount of luck in Major League Baseball, those aspects of the game that are really very much out of the players’ hands.

Some people believe that batting average per balls in play is one of such statistics. With that said, I will examine the top and bottom five batters in terms of their BABIP, recap how they got to where they are, point out the things that will bring them up or down to normal, and show you that luck has very little to do with it.

1. David Wright, New York Mets

Wright is the MLB leader in BABIP at .481, and there are several factors as to why. Looking at his statistics, almost everything looks similar, except that his home runs are significantly down (four through more than 50 games), and his strikeouts are up (on pace for more than 150).

This seems to be the opposite of what typically is seen in the game: a player’s power increasing alongside his strikeouts.

The thing that Wright has been able to do this year that has made his BABIP soar, is adjust his swing so that he is producing more clean line drives as opposed to upper-cutting and hitting fly balls.

Although this hurts his power, it definitely is a positive and his power numbers should return later on this season.

2. Kevin Youkilis, Boston Red Sox

The only player even close to Wright in terms of BABIP, Youkilis’ mark is at .418. He does not have as many games played or plate appearances as most of these other players, and so you should expect this number to naturally come down as his appearances rise.

Youkilis’ ground ball percentage has actually decreased pretty significantly compared to his last two years, and unlike Wright, his power has increased (slugging .636 through June 13).

The only decline in Youkilis’ BABIP is one that will come naturally as he plays in more games. He is a phenomenal player who, with full playing time, is really coming into his own and developing into the dream player that Billy Beane tried to hard to draft.

3. Jason Bartlett, Tampa Bay Rays

If you are a fantasy owner with Bartlett on your team, he is definitely a guy to trade away while his value is soaring.

Bartlett has a BABIP of .418, and is hitting .373. These statistics are fantastic, but Bartlett is historically an inconsistent player, and everything points to him falling back to Earth.

His ground ball percentage has historically been very high, almost 50 percent, but this year it is down to 33 percent, and this is a big reason for his increased BABIP.

While it is good that he is hitting more line drives, as pitchers figure out his holes it is likely he will turn back into the ground ball hitter that he has been the past four years.

4. Justin Upton, Arizona Diamondbacks

Upton’s first season truly started out fantastic before pitchers began to figure him out and found his weaknesses. His 2009 start is great as well, indicated by his .388 BABIP.

Will it fall like 2008 did? The answer is probably not.

Upton is turning into the type of player fantasy owners always imagined him being. He is hitting with more power, more line drives, and his average has risen significantly.

Although it is possible that pitchers could find some new holes in the young Upton, it is likely that he has finally figured out the Major Leagues and will be a force for many years to come.

5. Carlos Beltran, New York Mets

With two players in the top five, it is evident that the Mets' offense is getting the job done. Beltran, historically a weak a player who starts off the season cold and finishes it hotter than anyone, strangely has a BABIP of .375 and an average of .343.

Beltran until about a week ago had a higher average than teammate David Wright, yet his BABIP was and still is much lower, and this is due to the fact that Wright’s strikeout total is much higher and so less of his outs made are coming from balls in play.

Although Beltran may end with a great season, look for this BABIP to come down under .350, still a fantastic number, but not the same as .396. Some other guys have not had as much success this season.

Here are the bottom five players in terms of BABIP closely examined.

1. Garrett Atkins, Colorado Rockies

Once a key piece of the Rockies’ future, Atkins is now the weakest link on the team. His average is under the Mendoza line at .193, and his BABIP is only .199. Atkins needs to even out his swing to return to his usual form.

He is hitting almost half as many line drives as he usually does, and he is hitting weak grounders, hurting his own stats as well as his team.

He is a smart player and when he clicks, he will really make some noise. Expect Atkins to have a strong summer and his power numbers to rise as well.

2. Jay Bruce, Cincinnati Reds

Bruce is like Atkins in that he is hitting far fewer line drives. Interestingly enough, Bruce is also hitting fewer ground balls, but his power numbers have increased.

What this statistic shows, is that he is taking a power/home run approach at the plate, swinging with an uppercut swing for the fences, and the result is routine fly-balls and pop ups.

Although he may have to sacrifice some power numbers to raise his .200 BABIP, until his line drive percentage cracks 20 percent, the rest of Bruce’s numbers will greatly suffer.

3. Brian Giles, San Diego Padres

Giles is coming to the close of a strong career, and there may not be much of a hope for him in terms of returning to his old form.

His BABIP is .221 this year and is mostly because of his ground ball percentage of 46 percent, which has steadily risen over the past five years before a great jump this year.

Because his overall average is so low, Giles’ BABIP should increase somewhat throughout the rest of the year, but not by so significant an amount that it is important to pick him up or hold onto him in fantasy leagues.

4. Dan Uggla, Florida Marlins

Uggla is one of the only guys on this list that I would not feel too worried about. He has historically been a player with his strongest months in June and July, and he has raised his average by a significant amount just in the last weeks, showing that he already is beginning to heat up.

Uggla’s BABIP rests currently at .227, and as has been the current trend in all of these bottom feeders, he has been hitting far more fly balls.

Watch for him to explode in the next few months, and if he is available in your fantasy league, he is definitely a risk worth taking. Fantasy owners may recall Uggla’s 12 home run May and seven home run June last year, and it is likely that June and July could produce similar results this year.

5. Chris B. Young, Arizona Diamondbacks

Similar to Bruce, Young is a player who is swinging for the fences. After a 32 home run rookie campaign, he has seen his stolen bases decline and his power as well.

Young has a BABIP of .238 and has seen a great increase in the number of fly balls he hits, but these are not towering drives.

His infield fly-to-fly ball ratio has drastically increased, his swing is not evened, and so the hits are not coming. If he continues to falter, Young may be a player who sees minor league time before the end of the year to work on his mechanics.

This article was originally posted on fantasypros911.com. Go to fantasypros911.com for your latest news and advice for your fantasy teams.

I Pledge Allegiance, to the Chiefs

Nick Tyson — Tue, 12 May 2009 17:58:45 -0400

As soon as I knew football, I knew the Kansas City Chiefs. Honestly, that is how fast it came. Well, maybe that is a bit of an exaggeration. It all started off with tangibles. I liked the red and white colors, the unique uniform designs, that kind of stuff. Really amateur reasons. Just the words "Kansas City Chiefs" rolled nicely off the tongue.

That was just a first stage. I was also always drawn to productive "powerhouse" offenses, and the Chiefs always seemed to possess some major offensive weapons. At first it was the Priest Holmes Tony Gonzalez era. And shortly after, Larry Johnson had his time in the spotlight.

All this said, even after loving the uniforms, and the players, and the offense, these are not the things that captured me about the Kansas City Chiefs. I was still pretty young at the time when my parents took me to Kansas City to visit relatives we had not seen in ages. Always having been a big football guy, my dad bought tickets for the Sunday game at Arrowhead, and so we went.

I was already well past the time when kids make allegiances to certain teams, but football had never really been my sport. Sure, I followed the top individuals, but as a whole, I would watch few games outside of the post-season and Superbowl games. But when we walked into Arrowhead, everything changed.

It was as though I was swept off my feet and crowd-surfed over a horde of chief fans. Everything in sight was red, every fan looked devoted, and there existed more passion for one sports team in that stadium than, I think, exists anywhere else in the world. This was all before the game even began.

During the game, the offense was alive, scoring 41 points and winning easily. All the while, the devout fans cheered for every play, shrieked at every first down, and went downright wild every time the home team scored. It was an experience that will stay with me forever, something I will never allow myself to forget. It is from that day that I can stand proudly and say that I am the most passionate Chiefs fan in the world.

2009 Chief's Preview: Because This Year Will Be Different

Nick Tyson — Tue, 12 May 2009 14:51:09 -0400

In the 2009-2010 NFL season the only place to go from here is up. After a miserable 2-14 finish in the 2008-2009 season, the Kansas City Chiefs look to wipe the slate clean this upcoming season. The name of the game this year is progress and development. Realistically, are we going to improve from a team in the cellar to one that reaches the Superbowl? The answer is probably not. But a record above .500 is certainly possible, and this is often good enough for a playoff berth. And the fact is, this team is going to be much better than most give it credit for.

Many challenges are going to come the Chief’s way in 2009. What was once a team known for its dominating offense and lack of defense, has recently transformed into a team with one of the weakest offenses in the game, and a defense that is not by any means spectacular either.

2009 will see the team with a new leader. With no true “general” since Trent Green departed a few years back, the 2009 Chiefs will turn to Matt Cassel for superior play and leadership. Cassel proved himself in the absence of Tom Brady in 2008, but will he be able to do it with the Kansas City offense? Only time will tell.

In 2009 we can also hope to see a healthy and consistent Larry Johnson. The past two seasons he has been injury plagued and ineffective, and in 2009 he will need to be consistent, putting down 100 yd games every week, instead of every four weeks, mixed between 20 and 30 yd rush games.

Long time Chief icon Tony Gonzalez will see his first year in a non-Chief uniform, and it will be up to unproven Brad Cottam to make up for this loss. And after a stellar rookie campaign and an equally successful second year, receiver Dwayne Bowe will have the opportunity to solidify himself as one of the top receivers in the league.

Improvements are needed on the defensive side of the ball as well. First round 2008 pick Glen Dorsey, will need to prove why he deserved his selection, and find the ball carrier more often in 2009. 2009 third overall pick Tyson Jackson will need to develop into a top defensive end, using his size and mobility to fill the void that was left with Jared Allen’s departure.

And the players who produced in 2008 will need to continue to produce to their full potential. Brandon Flowers had one of the top rookie campaigns the Chiefs have seen at his respective position. Safeties Bernard Pollard and Jarrad Page seemed to have great reads on every play. This will need to keep rolling into the 2009 season.

Rome was not built in a day, and neither is a great football team. Progress is critical; any little step cannot be taken for granted. The 2009 Chiefs have the pieces to surprise many teams during the regular season, but this may not be enough to carry them into the postseason and to a national championship. But the pieces are falling into place, and the time when the Chiefs will dominate the league is approaching.

Alfonso Soriano: Still Top of the Order

Nick Tyson — Mon, 13 Apr 2009 14:42:57 -0400

Week one is in the books and the Chicago Cubs are off to a relatively hot start again. The starting pitching looks rock solid, with only Ted Lilly seeming lackluster, and for the most part the lineup is strong as well.

The only worries for the Cubs so far are coming from the bullpen, specifically from the implosions of closer Kevin Gregg. Fortunately, this has only cost them one victory.

After six games, leadoff man Alfonso Soriano already has four home runs, further proving to me that he should not be batting leadoff. The team would be much better served putting him in the middle of the order as a run-producer.

Three out of Soriano's four home runs have been solo shots, and the other was a two-run shot.

Sure, these home runs are helpful to the team's success, but if Soriano bats fifth in the order, he would rack up the RBI's with his power.

While some of you may say Soriano has gotten off to a nice start with two stolen bases, he has walked only three times in six games, and that rate is likely to drop off significantly as the year goes on.

On the other hand Ryan Theriot, the other prospective leadoff man, has picked up where he left off in 2008, with five walks thus far.

Obviously, the statistics are somewhat skewed since the season has only just begun, but after six games, Soriano has an OBP of .355 while Theriot's is .615.

Once again, these numbers cannot be compared and it is unfair to do so, but Soriano's powerful start has strengthened my belief that his rightful spot in the order is in a run-producing spot.

Lou's Mistake: Promoting Kevin Gregg To The Closer's Role

Nick Tyson — Mon, 30 Mar 2009 17:07:28 -0400

Yesterday, manager Lou Pinella announced that Kevin Gregg had won the closer’s job over the 26-year-old Carlos Marmol.

Marmol will continue as the Cubs primary set-up man, and yet another year will go by without him in the ninth inning. This was the worst decision Pinella could have possibly made for his team.

Looking at the 2008 statistics for each player, it is clear why the race was such a close one. Gregg finished the season with a 3.41 ERA, Marmol with a 2.68 ERA. Not too far off, but at this point, the edge has to go to Marmol.

In addition, Kevin Gregg blew nine saves for the Florida Marlins in 2008. Nine! And it is not as though he had the 60 or 70 some opportunities as K-Rod did.

Gregg had about 40 save chances, so he had something below an 80 percent conversion rate. Definitely not what I want for my closer on a team that is supposedly one of the favorites for the NL crown.

I am a strong believer that you do not bring in a closer from another team, but rather bring him up through your own farm system. I think a closer must earn the position through hard work, beginning as a middle reliever, moving to a set-up man, and finally filling the closer role.

Marmol proved his effectiveness to us last year, and although he slipped up in the middle of the season, his stats overall were very strong. After not re-signing Wood, Marmol looked as though the closer spot was his for the taking without much competition from other relievers.

In promoting Kevin Gregg, Lou Pinella may destroy much of Marmol’s confidence. Marmol, like Carlos Zambrano, is a pitcher who feeds off of confidence.

When things are going his way, he is unhittable, but when he is in a rough stretch, he lets his emotions affect his pitching, and is wild and unable to hit the strike zone.

Why, Lou, knowing all of this, did you promote Kevin Gregg and leave your boy Carlos Marmol out for another year?

Spring training is spring training. That is all it is. Fabulous pitchers get beat up, and Class-A players perform like MLB all-stars.

Kevin Gregg as a fly-ball pitcher will lose his effectiveness, or what effectiveness he does have, on hot days where the wind is blowing out at Wrigley.

And who would you feel more confident with on the mound in the ninthwith one out and runners on second and third? Carlos Marmol, with 114 strikeouts in 87 innings, or Kevin Gregg with 58 strikeouts in 68 innings?

The choice is obvious for me, I choose a power pitcher who has proved himself on my team any day over a power pitching wannabe who has pitched his last seasons in the spacious Dolphin Stadium.

Learning from Mistakes: 10 Players Who Must Make Adjustments in 2009

Nick Tyson — Mon, 30 Mar 2009 15:43:07 -0400

A new year of baseball is almost upon us, and I am getting excited to say the least. Today I take a look back at some of the under-performers from 2008, and discuss which players must make adjustments in their game-play to have a successful 2009.

Carlos Marmol

Only a short while ago named the set-up man to Kevin Gregg, Marmol is more frustrated than ever, though he refuses to admit it. Last June/July, Marmol had a midseason implosion and could not seem to find the strike zone...or anywhere near it.

His numbers plummeted, or being a pitcher, I should say they “soared,” and his near perfect season got turned into one that didn’t have many heads turning. Marmol must avoid this meltdown in 2009 and throw strikes throughout.

He has proven several times that he is nearly un-hittable and if he can keep the pitches over the plate, great things will come of his 2009 season.

Carlos Zambrano

Like teammate Carlos Marmol, it was only a few horrific months that cost Carlos Zambrano a terrific season. From the start of August to the end of the season, Zambrano lacked control and efficiency. Also like Marmol, Zambrano needs to maintain consistency throughout the ENTIRE season.

His implosion hurt his team as well, costing them a possible advancement into the second round of the playoffs. If Big Z can control his pitches and emotions, the Cubs should be a lock to win the NL Central and once again compete for a WS Championship.

Derrek Lee

Although the first three players on my list are Chicago Cubs, this is by no means a Cubs preview. It just so happens, that they have more players than any other teams, who need to adjust in order for themselves and the team to be successful. Derrek Lee is another one of these players.

With his swing and bat-speed slowed tremendously by his aging, Lee can no longer expect to be a 35-40 home run threat as he was earlier in his career and before his wrist injury. Instead, Lee must focus on driving in runs and getting on base via base on balls, singles, and doubles to the gap.

Lee must also remember how to drive the balls on the inside into left-field, and go with the pitches to the outside corner. If he can make these adjustments, the Cub offense will be very grateful.

Prince Fielder

After a fantastic second year season where this young slugger belted 50 home runs, his numbers dropped greatly in the 2008 season. His home runs dropped by 16, RBI by 17, runs scored by 23, and average by 12 points.

These drops were due to the pitchers figuring out all holes in Fielder’s swing, and Prince being unable to respond by getting rid of these holes.

Brewer fans must hope that Fielder’s work over the off-season has eliminated many of the holes in his swing so that he is back to 2007 form.

Derek Jeter

Jeter is another player who is dealing with the realization that he is no longer 25 years old and close to as agile as he had been in the past. In 2008, fans and competitors alike, saw a drop in almost all of Jeter’s statistics.

Because he has lost some of his speed and will no longer be able to beat out the infield hits that he has in the past, Jeter must utilize his eye and take more walks.

Fortunately for the Yankee captain, his team has a stronger offense than almost all other teams in the league, and if his production drops, many others will be right there ready to pick up the slack.

At the age of almost 35, it is unlikely that we will see another 20 home run 30 steal season for Jeter, but do not doubt what he has left in him.

Pat Burrell

Burrell is one of the few players on this list (along with Zambrano and Lee) who could be considered a veteran. He is 32 years old, and besides in 2002 and 2005, he has shown no true “breakout year.” Burrell is still at an age where he could really have a great season.

But Burrell tends to start off hot, and then cool down consistently as the season progresses. Every year he is a threat to hit 40 home runs and with an offense like Philadelphia’s, drive in 120 as well.

The key is maintaining his early hot start, and continuing it deep into the summer, rather than letting it simmer away with spring. Burrell is a great talent, and it will be his play that decides if the Rays repeat (and perhaps finish the job) 2008, or if they play in the shadow of New York and Boston.

Ryan Braun

After a tremendous rookie campaign, few noticed the drop off in Braun’s numbers his second season. People noticed that he drove in over 100, and hit over 35 home runs, but what about that fact that he only hit three more home runs than the year before...in over 150 more at-bats.

Nationally League Pitchers exploited the weaknesses in Ryan Braun in 2008, and this caused a drop in his average, on-base-percentage, and only a slight increase in more playing time in the other categories. Braun along with Prince Fielder is the centerpiece of a Milwaukee offense that could be towards the top in the NL.

If the Brewers wish to challenge the Cubs for the division title, it is up to Braun to respond and make adjustments to his approach at the plate.

Michael Bourn

In 2007, the Astros traded with the Phillies for highly touted prospect Michael Bourn. Bourn was a sure bet for 60 steals, a sure bet for 100 runs, and a lock for the starting job.

But a free runner like Bourn can only run if he can get on base, and this was the problem for Bourne during the 2008 season. Don’t get me wrong, Bourn still stole over 40 bases, but if he can increase his on-base-percentage from .288 to even just .320, there is no reason he does not steal 60.

Bourn must cut back on his strikeouts and increase his walk total (37 in 2008) to reach base more often.

In addition, he must learn to take advantage of his speed and use it to get on base via infield hits and bunts, which he is very capable of learning.

Jeff Francoeur

Mentioned as the Braves next star, Francoeur struggled mightily in 2008 and was sent to the minors to straighten out his batting problems. Still a stud in the outfield, Francoeur must learn to take more walks (39 in 2008) and he must return to 2007 offensive form.

If he straightens out these batting woes, with the improvement of Atlanta’s lineup, there is no reason Francoeur cannot hit 30 home runs and drive in close to 120.

Hunter Pence

Pence is another player who, after a great Rookie season, saw his numbers drop-off terribly in 2008. Pence upped his power numbers, but his ability to get on base (both in average and on-base-percentage) dropped significantly.

I would always give up power for a good average and getting on base. What we can see in Pence, is the pitchers seeing him for the second, third, and fourth times around, and after watching him on video, figuring out where to pitch him and then hitting their spots.

There is nothing wrong with Pence’s approach, just a need (like many of the other players I have listed) to adjust and eliminate these holes, so that the pitchers are confused for a second time.

If Pence does do this, he will maintain (and perhaps increase) his power numbers, while regaining his average and on base percentage. A pretty good trade off if you ask me.

The Three Worst Things About March Madness

Nick Tyson — Sun, 29 Mar 2009 01:10:36 -0400

I will be honest, I am not a college sports fan. I really don't try to act like I am either. If I am going to talk about NCAA Basketball at this time of the year, I'll sure as hell read up on what I'm saying as to not sound like an idiot.

With that said, here are my three least favorite things about March Madness.

1. Who's in Who's out. I really find the selection process ridiculous, and I do not think winning the conference should guarantee a team admittance into the tournament at all.

Every year there are quality and above quality teams left out who have a right to be in this tournament. If you are going to combine all the different conferences into one tournament, you have to have a fair way to decide who makes it and who doesn't. Do I have a way to do this?

No, but someone must find a new system

2. Overrated seeds. How does a team like Dayton (11) beat West Virginia (6) by eight points? Or Arizona (12) over Utah (5) by 13? Yes, there are such things as upsets, but these losses are almost ridiculous compared to their respective seeds.

Clearly a team seeded seven spots ahead of its opponent should at the very least lose a nail-biter?

3. March Fans. March NCAA fans are perhaps the most annoying fans in any sport. I am talking guys who go out and make a bracket, and then talk to you about it like they are experts. Like they have been following the teams throughout the entire season.

Ask them to name a player on the team and they look at you like your speaking a foreign language.

Everyone has experienced this and knows exactly what I am talking about. I personally cannot stand it, especially when you look at the bracket and it does not have a single upset throughout the entire tournament.

Benchwarmers: Grading the Chicago Cubs' Reserves

Nick Tyson — Sat, 28 Mar 2009 23:28:30 -0400

With the season beginning in just over a week, there still seem to exist quite a few question marks with your very own Chicago Cubs. It has been rumored today that Samardzija was optioned to Triple A where he will begin the 2009 season.

But what about the bench players and utility men on this 2009 Cubs squad? Here I will take a look at the utility players and evaluate the Chicago Cubs in terms of their depth.

Paul Bako

Bako has been a Cub before (2003, 2004) so Cub’s fans know what he brings to the table. The difference this time around is that he will not be counted on as much as he was his first go-around, and also he is 36-years-old as opposed to 30 during his first stint as a Chicago Cub.

Offensively, Bako brings very little to the table and is probably not any improvement over the man he replaced, Henry Blanco. And defensively, while Bako does not commit too many errors, he is certainly not one of the stronger catchers in the game, and he is without a doubt a weaker defensive catcher than Blanco was.

These conclusions lead me to wonder why the front office believed he was an upgrade from Blanco, who is similar in age, and could have been retained for a similar if not less price.

Grade: C-

Joey Gathright

Gathright was certainly an unexpected addition to this Cub’s team that seems to lack speed in terms of on the base-paths. While I believe Gathright will be used primarily in late defensive swaps and as a pinch-runner, his offense over his career has not been too shabby either (.263 average, .328 on-base-percentage).

These are certainly not starter type numbers, but do not be surprised to see this speedster get his fair share of chances and put down some bunt base hits

Grade: B

Aaron Miles

Miles was really a great addition and one that the Cubs desperately needed. He is a switch hitter who will help mix things up in a righty dominated lineup. In addition, Miles is a big time contact hitter (37 strikeouts in 2008) and can also play good defense.

It is still a big question how the playing time will be split between Miles and Mike Fontenot, but Miles should still get around 300 abs between time at 2B, SS, 3B, and even some outfield playing time.

Grade: A

Reed Johnson

Johnson will most likely platoon out at center field with Kosuke Fukudome, and it is possible that if Kosuke struggles, Johnson could step into an almost full-time role by as early as June or July.

After a disappointing shortened season in 2007, Johnson was right back to 2006 form last year hitting over .300 and playing tremendous defense as always. There is no reason he shouldn’t replicate his 2008 numbers in 2009, and he is definitely capable of having 400-450 at-bats over the course of the season.

Grade: A+

Michah Hoffpauir

Hoff turned 29 this month, so this will most likely be the defining season of his MLB career. Last year in limited time he hit over .300, slugged over .500 and only really had some problems making contact (24 strikeouts in 3 at-bats).

In the minor leagues, the story was the same, with Hoffpauir tearing through them like it was tee-ball. Derrek Lee’s numbers all around dropped significantly last year, but it is very unlikely Hoff will take over for a Cub icon as well as a guy making over $10 million per year.

It is tough to bench a guy who has shown great success at the major league level, but there are not really any options at this point, especially with the addition of Bradley in right field, and Hoffpauir unable to play any other positions.

Unless Lee struggles tremendously or faces mid-season injuries, I think a trade of Hoffpauir is definitely a possibility, and I think he will find success at the major league level wherever he ends up.

Grade: B+

Altogether, the reserves for the Cubs appear to be quite strong. The main weakness spots are a power hitting outfielder; Johnson seems to be the only one capable of hitting over 15 home runs in a complete season, and an offensive catcher, which will hopefully not be needed with Soto's strong offense.

Otherwise, although the bench is certainly not stacked, it appears to be quite sufficient with a lineup like this one.

Overall Cub's Reserves Grade: B+

Indications of Success: How Young Players Can Show They Have Bright Futures

Nick Tyson — Thu, 26 Mar 2009 20:05:38 -0400

Every time we see a minor-league pitcher throw a shutout, or fan 10, or see a batter hit two home runs in one game, or drive in five, we immediately picture them as future major league stars.

But as optimistic and enthusiastic as baseball fans and analysts may be, the reality of the situation is far too grim.

In actuality, less than 15 percent of minor leaguers will become major league players, and out of this slim number, less than five percent will go on to become stars.

People these days are too easily swayed by the flashy statistics that a minor leaguer can display, when in fact, there are much more important things in determining if a young player will have success at the big league level.

In this analysis, I will list several ingredients that I think should be the real things we look at when deciding if a young player will be the “real deal.”

Poise/Composure

This is easier said than explained. There is clearly a difference in all of these between a pitcher and a hitter.

To start with pitchers, composure on the mound is key for every pitcher no mater what the talent is like. Pitcher’s with huge amounts of talent (Carlos Zambrano comes to mind) can almost waste it away by not controlling themselves and their emotions.

Young pitchers are going to give up hits (it is a big change from the minor leagues to majors) and they cannot expect to get up and blow away every opposing hitter.

The difference between a good prospect and one who still needs to develop, is how they react to getting hit by the opposing team. There are essentially two routes. You can get upset about the situation, lose control of your emotions, and end up giving up a home run to the next hitter, or you can follow the second path.

What almost all successful major league pitchers have, and what young pitchers need to learn to be successful, is the ability to shake off a hit, be it a single or a home run. A young pitcher must be able to forget what happened to the last batter, and concentrate on the time at hand.

If he makes his pitches where he needs to, the single will be of little or no consequence.

As far as hitters go, poise is probably of less importance at the plate than it is in the field. In the field, a player cannot try to do too much. Billy Beane remarked that a young Miguel Tejada would often try to do too much: Instead of getting a possible double play at first an second, he tried to get the force at home.

For a young player it is about making outs and getting your team to the plate.

Plate Discipline

Is it possible to be a free swinger and still find success at the major-league level? Yes. Vladimir Guerrero swings at pitches from his ankles to his eyes and manages to be at the top of the leader boards in almost all statistics year in and year out.

But the majority of young free-swingers are more often than not going to strike out on these pitches.

The most important stat to look at in a prospect is his on-base-percentage. If a player knows how to let bad pitches go by and swing at his pitches, not pitcher’s strikes, but something he can drive, he will find success.

A good indication for a player playing at the major league level for the first time is his ability to take pitches. This does not necessarily mean he has to have vast amounts of walks in his first at-bats; it just measures how good of an eye he has, and his ability to wait for the right pitch.

Too often, young players come up to the majors and have at-bats lasting four pitches at the most.

Pop not Power

I am sure reading the title of this section nobody has a clue what I am saying by this.

Instead of looking at the players who are able to hit 35 home runs at the minor league level, look at other indications such as doubles and the ability to drive the ball to the opposite field.

Fans can be caught up in guys like Jason Dubois who are able to hit 30 home runs at the Triple-A level, but is certainly not a major leaguer.

Power is something in young players that can be developed, and for that reason it is far less important than on base percentage, clutch hitting, and mechanics. I think that a young player who hits plenty of doubles can be expected to develop some of this pop into home run power as he grows.

One player I look at in particular is White Sox first round draft choice Gordon Beckham, who was not a big power hitter in college, but did hit a load of doubles.

Along with his ability to hit to the opposite field, a skill that few players are able to master, Beckham also hit for a high average, another indication of him being able to develop into a 30-home run player down the road.

Because of his ability to drive the ball into the alleys and to the opposite field, the White Sox made a solid choice in ignoring critics who attempted to point out his flaws and lack of home run power.

Ability To Adjust

It goes without saying that the major leagues are far different and far more difficult for a player than any of the farm systems. Any player, be it a batter or pitcher, who expects to come into the league doing the same things they did in the minors, and still have success, is out of their mind.

After a few weeks in the major leagues, opposing pitchers will have figured out where to pitch a young player, and they will start pounding that location. Rather than let his weaknesses get the best of him, the batter must learn to change the hole in his swing so that it no longer is a weakness.

A good example, though it came later in his career, is Derrek Lee. Until his breakout season in 2005, pitchers had known to pound Lee in the inside where he would ground out lazily to third base or shortstop.

In 2005, Lee was able eliminate this hole in his swing, and drive the ball into left field. It was without a doubt his finest season to this day.

A good indication that a player knows how to adjust is to look at his minor league statistics. Was he consistent as he moved up through the farm system, showing that he was able to adjust to more difficult pitching?

For pitchers, it is the ability to locate their pitches and reveal the weaknesses of the opposing players. Facing a young pitcher for a second time, a team will have experience as well as video on him, and know what to expect.

The young pitcher must do his research as well, and know where the holes are in each hitter’s swing. By finding these holes and then hitting his spots, he will be at a large advantage.

There you have it. Instead of evaluating a player based on statistics such as RBI, home runs, and ERA, look at statistics such as offensive and pitching base on balls, on base percentage, and doubles. The players that find success in the majors seem to have specific characteristics in common.

For one they have good poise and composure.

This means performing well under pressure and not becoming intimidated. Second, they have solid plate discipline. They know how to see pitches and get a feel for what the pitcher is throwing.

In addition, a young player should reveal some pop, but not necessarily home run power. The ability to hit doubles and drive the ball to the opposite field is more important than home-run power, which can be developed.

And finally is the ability to adjust. Baseball is a game of changes, and in a pitcher hitter matchup, the one who makes the better adjustment is the one who will win every time.

Of course, there are other important factors as well which I did not go into detail on. A pitcher’s ability to strand runners, and batter’s clutch hitting ability, and smart base running are all very important as well.

But I really feel that the four factors I touched on can describe almost all minor leaguers who have come up with success to the major leagues, and if you are evaluating your team’s prospects, look for these characteristics in them.

Going for Gold: Five Players Who Wish They Hadn't Taken the Money

Nick Tyson — Wed, 25 Mar 2009 15:07:18 -0400

Baseball is essentially a money game these days. Withe the exception of a few teams, teams with the higest payrolls win year after year by signing the biggest names for the biggest bucks. So what about players who avoided taking pay-cuts to stay with their home-teams, and went to teams only for the money? Well here I will tell you why five players regret taking the deals they took. Enjoy

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MLB Studs Turned Fantasy Duds

Nick Tyson — Tue, 24 Mar 2009 23:45:32 -0400

In baseball, there is a clear difference between an average player and a great player. The same goes for the fantasy side of the game.

Here I am going to breakdown five players, each of whom are ahead of the pack on their respective pro squads, and prove exactly why they are not the right choice for your fantasy baseball team.

This will help you avoid falling into the trap of drafting guys whose names may appear towards the top of their positions, but their stats will not benefit your lineup.

Below, I have compiled a list that I think every fantasy owner will enjoy.

1) Garret Anderson, Atlanta Braves- I probably could have stated this last season as well, but only draft Anderson as a final resort.

I will repeat that: Do not draft Garret Anderson unless you absolutely have to.

His statistics haven‘t been solid since 2004, and he seems to be declining year after year. From a corner outfielder, you are looking for OBP, power, and a run producer. Anderson is none of these. He has not hit over 20 home runs since 2003, and he has also not driven in over 85 runs in any of the past three years.

Do not get me started about his OBP, which barely finds a way over .300 every season. To add on to the misery, in his last two years, he hasn‘t walked less than 30 times.

Not only this, but Anderson is also a huge injury risk. If you wish to view the situation positively, you can hope that the switch to the NL will boost his production. Although, moving to a much weaker lineup in Atlanta seems it can only hurt his status.

2) Yunel Escobar, Atlanta Braves- The prototypical shortstop gets on base, swipes bags, and scores runs.

The reason Escobar finds his name on this list is because, from a fantasy owner’s standpoint, he does not provide any of these.

Escobar stole two bags in 2008 and was caught five times; this leading to a 30 percent success rate. Sure, his OBP was pretty solid for a shortstop, but he also scored only 71 runs in over 500 at-bats.

And what reason is there to believe that this number will increase with the loss of middle of the order machine Mark Teixeira as well as an aging Chipper Jones?

Because of his inability to swipe bags and score runs, I would recommend against taking Yunel Escobar until the end of your draft, making sure your offense is already solidified, as he will not add much offensive production.

3) Jason Varitek, Boston Red Sox- I am sorry to say, but Varitek has been a horrific fantasy player as of late.

He always manages to find his way drafted amongst catchers so far out of his league. This is only because, well, he is Jason Varitek, playing for a monster of a team sitting in a monster of a lineup.

But people, look at his production!

In 2005 he hit for a .281 average, with 22 home runs, 70 RBI, 69 runs scored, and two stolen bases. Since then the numbers have been horrific. He has averaged under 100 hits, 50 runs scored, and 15 home runs per year.

And his 2008 season was the worst of all. He finished with a .220 average, 13 home runs, 43 RBI, and 37 runs scored.

For now, Varitek is almost to the point where he should go undrafted. Really, the only reason I would have take him is if I had no other options in a crowded mixed league. He turns 37 this April, and you'll thank yourself when the All-Star break rolls around and Varitek is struggling to keep his average above the Mendoza Line.

4) Joe Blanton, Philadelphia Phillies- Well, here is the first pitcher on this list.

Blanton might seem like an excellent choice to fill up your bench, but there are plenty of no-name players out there who you should grab much earlier in a draft. Really, what makes Blanton desirable to major league teams is that he is a workhorse and can throw inning-after-inning.

The problem is, most fantasy leagues do not have an “innings pitched” category, and outside of this, Blanton is good for very little.

Blanton's 2008 ERA soared by over half a run, and his career strikeout high is 140, not exactly standout fantasy numbers. Wouldn't you agree?

Blanton is also a contact pitcher, which means that he is going to give up hits and lots of them. So while he may not walk as many guys as most other pitchers, the number of hits he gives up will send his WHIP soaring year-after-year.

Your best hope with Blanton is that his team could provide the offense needed to pick him up a few more wins than he should have. Outside of this, there is no reason any manager should find themselves drafting Joe.

5) Fausto Carmona, Cleveland Indians- This is by far the toughest, because he was plagued by injury for all of 2008 and did not come remotely close to pitching a full season.

But I have a few reasons why I believe that Carmona is a true Fantasy “dud," and I hope to convince you not to draft him unless you are taking a chance or saying "what the heck" in your last round.

First off, he is not a strikeout pitcher. In his best season to date (2007), Carmona had only 137 strikeouts in 215 innings pitched.

Secondly, the Indians offense is not even close to that of ‘07. That year, Carmona received great run support, and the result was a season of 19 wins.

Not only are they lacking a run producing Travis Hafner, but Victor Martinez was not the player during his short 2008 campaign that he was during 2007, virtually displaying no power or run-producing ability.

Lastly, Carmona has shown to be wild at all points in his career, and it picked up drastically during ‘08, when he walked more batters (70 in 120 innings) than he struck out (58).

These numbers are more frightening when they are linked to a contact pitcher like Blanton who could likely give up as many (if not more) hits than innings pitched. This will cause his WHIP to shoot up significantly, perhaps over 1.40.

Like I said earlier, I am not predicting an awful year for Carmona, I just think everything points towards him not continuing the type of success he had in 2007, and for this reason I would avoid drafting him with any valuable pick.

As for the rest of these guys, I am not saying that their production will drop from previous years. What I am saying is this: The numbers they produce are not numbers favorable or desirable to a fantasy team.

Therefore, don’t glance at their status atop their respective MLB squads and take it into account. If you do, you may very well end up with a “dud” to plague your 2009 fantasy baseball season.

This article was originally posted on www.fantasyfootballmaniaxs.com where you can go for advice and news regarding your fantasy teams.

American League: Who Will Shine in Five Years?

Nick Tyson — Tue, 24 Mar 2009 14:56:57 -0400

It is 2009 and the start of a new MLB season. The sun is shining and the diamond is ready to be marched on by the baseball team armies. Opening Day is fast approaching and soon the numbers will reveal who are the top-level players of 2009.

They will dominate the league, and have the opposing pitchers or hitters quaking with fear.

In baseball, a sport where a mere 20 hits over 165 games can separate a good hitter from a great hitter, these elite level players will seem to be on-base every time they bat, and if they are not on-base it might as well be because they blasted the ball out of the park.

Looking down the road, I pose this question: In five years from now, when many of today's stars are out of their prime, who will be the elite stars of both the American and National Leagues?

Comments and feedback are welcome. Enjoy.

American League: Infielders

Miguel Cabrera

Entering the 2009 at just 25 years of age, Cabrera has as much upside as any player in the game.

More was expected of him in his first AL season with Detroit, but it is likely his production will greatly pickup in 2009. In five years, Cabrera could dominate the league as a 30-year-old, and a change to a more hitter-friendly park will aid in his mastery.

Ian Kinsler

Yet to have a completely healthy season, Kinsler is only 26 years of age and possesses the tools to dominate the league for years to come. Kinsler has the power and speed combination to hit 30 home runs and steal 40 bases, and have some brilliant seasons at second base.

If he remains on Texas, Kinsler's power numbers will not fluster, as the park is a hitter's paradise.

Evan Longoria

In part-time 2008 duty, Longoria showed why he was chosen third overall in the 2006 draft. Longoria is only 23 years old and already could have people talking MVP in his first full season.

Five years from now, Longoria will be 28 years old and in his prime. Will the Rays be able to hold onto the young star when he asks for a large contract, or will he fall into the hands of the big dogs and finish off his career as a Yankee?

Wherever Longoria ends up, he will produce like an unstoppable force.

American League: Outfielders

BJ Upton

After a very strong first full season (.300 BA, 24 HR), all of Upton's numbers outside of his walks and stolen bases dropped off in 2008.

In 2009 and in future seasons, I would expect Upton to combine both his speed and power. If he continues to improve and refine his skills, Upton could be a 40-40 candidate.

Like Longoria, Upton may not remain a Ray for too long, and like his teammate, he will remain successful no matter what team he ends up on.

Nick Markakis

Markakis heads a supreme group of young Orioles outfielders. Last year, his power and runs batted in dipped a little bit, but the power numbers should resurface as well as up to 25 stolen bases, and the lineup is stronger this year, meaning more chances for Markakis to drive in runs.

Markakis is only 25 years old, and with guys like Matt Wieters, Brian Roberts, and Adam Jones by his side for the next years, Markakis could turn around the success of the Baltimore franchise while putting up MVP type numbers himself.

Josh Hamilton

While he is a little older than these other two outfielders (28 in May), Hamilton had arguably the finest season of any of them in 2008, and just by looking at him (6'4", left-handed power hitter) and seeing the way he approaches every at-bat, you can tell that Hamilton is the real deal.

For Hamilton, the key is staying healthy and avoiding off-the-field distractions, which are the reason he is emerging as a star at such a late age.

As long as the Texas offense remains strong, Hamilton's numbers should remain strong. As he adjusts to the league he will learn to shorten up his swing and strikeout less while taking more walks.

American League: Starting Pitchers

Felix Hernandez

Stuck on an awful team his entire career, Hernandez has not had a chance to show what he is fully capable of. Seattle will have hold of Hernandez for the next few years, but once he is out he should be on cruise control.

We have seen both his ERA and BAA go down the past three years, and that trend should continue into 2009 and beyond.

King Felix is only 22 years old and has a chance to dominate not only for the next five years but for the next 10 to 15. It will be interesting to see what Hernandez can do with a superior offense behind him.

Daisuke Matsuzaka

"Dice K," as he is widely known, showed why he was worth the generous deal that Boston gave him, by performing to their standards in 2008.

It cannot be denied that his 2007 was dreadful, but aside from the 94 walks issued and only 167 innings pitched in 2008, the season was magnificent.

If Matsuzaka can put together a 200-inning season while still holding onto his low ERA and BAA he will be almost untouchable.

It is key for Matsuzaka that he cut down on his walks total, and at 28 years of age he has many years to bring down this number. Boston is lucky that they have the Japanese stud locked up for the next few years; he looks to be certainly worth their investment.

Scott Kazmir

At 25 years of age, Kazmir has the chance to lead any major league rotation, and the Mets are sure unhappy that they let him go.

Kazmir showed what he could do in 2007, pitching over 200 innings and striking out almost 240, but it was not a strong season for his team, so the wins did not accumulate as they would have if he had been pitching for any above average rotation.

Unfortunately for Kazmir, last year the Rays were a strong team, and he pitched only 150 innings due to injury. If he has a full season with a strong lineup and bullpen to help him out, Kazmir could win 20 games as soon as the 2009 season.

Down the road he will continually lead his league in strikeouts, and as he learns to control his pitches, he should be among the league leaders in almost every pitching category.

American League: Relief Pitchers

Joakim Soria

Soria is only 24 years old, so take a second to think about that. At 24, he saved over 40 games and had an ERA of 1.60.

Will Soria remain a closer throughout the rest of his career? That seems likely.

But will he continue his dominance as he did in 2008? That is a question to be answered.

Soria will most likely find himself out of Kansas City as soon as he gets the chance, and as a power-throwing reliever, he could be offered a sizable contract wherever he plans to go.

His success in coming years will depend much on the success of KC as a team, but as they continue to mount a weak offense, even if the wins are not there, the victories will be by a small margin, and his save chances will keep piling up.

Jonathon Papelbon

At only 28 years of age, "Paps" has already established himself as one of the top closers in the game. He should only continue to improve and get save chances as he backs a strong Boston team.

The big question will be: How long will Papelbon remain a reliever?

Boston makes no indication that they plan on moving him into the starters role any time soon, but if the rotation falters, this could definitely emerge as a possibility.

Saves aside, Papelbon had a weak 2008 season, but his numbers should return to their '06 and '07 form. This is a guy who, as starting so early in the closer role, could really rack up one of the highest save counts in major league history.

Fantasy Baseball: Top Closers

Nick Tyson — Mon, 23 Mar 2009 14:50:48 -0400

#1 Joe Nathan Nathan is the definition of CONSISTENCY and that is why I give him the edge over Jonathon Papelbon. Papelbon is on a much better team, and so Boston will certainly win more games. However, Boston may win more, but they will also have much larger margins of victory on average than the Twins, thereby decreasing Papelbon's save opportunities. Minnesota will win most of its games by no more than three runs, giving Nathan and ample amount of save chances. And he has shown the past five years that when given the chance to save, save he will. Nathan can be counted on to have a Whip sub one, and ERA sub 2, and rarely will he blow a save and almost never will he collapse and allow more than a single run. Never draft a reliever too early because really all he is providing for you is saves, and a chance to ruin your Whip and ERA with an implosion, and Nathan is surely your best bet.

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How High Schools Maintain Perennial Success In Athletics

Nick Tyson — Mon, 09 Mar 2009 23:34:14 -0400

You’re the leading runner on the Hinsdale Cross Country team, and you’re all alone—not a teammate in sight—amidst dirt trails that crisscross like railroad tracks shooting off in every direction. But you’re not really all alone.

In fact, you’re surrounded by a sea of green—the green singlets of your competitors, the astounding Dukes of York High School. It’s not an unfamiliar feeling.

In fact, it is all too familiar to almost every cross-country runner who faces off against the Dukes of York. Their superiority of numbers is breathtaking, their discipline of mind truly Spartan, and their margins of victory—simply amazing.

For 50 consecutive years, the Dukes of York have unleashed a dominant army onto the cross-country battlefield, an army that leaves other teams quacking with fear. For those same 50 years, Coach Joe Newton has been the general driving that army to victory.

York is but one example of a small and very special group of elite high schools that seem to have discovered the secret to building consistently successful high school athletic teams.

Caramel High School in Indiana has a record streak of 23 consecutive state swimming championship titles in a row, in a state where every school competes in one single division.

Reading Memorial High School in Massachusetts had a dual meet track and field win streak that lasted 29 years. Long Beach Polytechnic High School in California has sent more players to the NFL than any other school in the country, and is nationally lauded year after year for its achievements in athletics.

And Maryland’s Mount Hebron girl’s lacrosse team has won 15 state championships in the last 20 years.

How do they do it? What is the secret to success for these dominant athletics programs? What allows an otherwise ordinary high school in Elmhurst, Illinois, to field the finest cross-country team in the nation year after year?

Is it possible for other high schools to utilize the same formula that has succeeded at places like York and build their own dominant athletic teams?

A number of the dominant sports teams have come from private schools. Blair Academy in New Jersey has won 28 consecutive national prep titles in wrestling. And as mentioned earlier, Mount Hebron’s girls lacrosse program has dominated its competition over the last 20 years, winning 15 state championships.

But there are no secret ingredients to the successful recipe that these high schools have derived. Private schools are able to recruit the top players in each sport, and can consequently manage winning in ways that public schools cannot.

It is therefore easy to understand how they become dominant players.

What I really want to comprehend is how a system which is not explicitly recruiting students is able to achieve the dominance that York and other high school sports dynasties have.

It is not that these schools have stronger, more talented athletes than the rest. It is not that they are drawing people to the school or district simply to participate in the sports programs.

It boils down to three factors—location, coaching, and tradition. Together these differentiate the dominant schools from the rest of the pack.

The least important of these three aspects is location. There are essentially three aspects of location—school size, economic background, and competition. The most basic is school size; does the school have a large number of students to draw to its athletic programs?

A small school system is unlikely to be a dominant player. York has over 2,500 students and Long Beach Poly has almost twice this amount. School size is evident in the team size. York, for instance has over 200 athletes.

The school size allows more students to compete for the athletics program, increasing the possibility of striking it rich and finding athletes that will soon become future stars.

In addition to having a large number of students, the school needs to have competition from neighboring schools.

In Washington, a team from the Greater Spokane League (GSL) has won the state cross-country championships for 21 years in a row. York High School competes in the West Suburban Conference (WSC), which is among the top conferences in the state each year.

In 2008, the WSC sent four schools to the state cross country meet, a meet where only 25 schools in the state compete. The idea that good competition breeds success makes it hard for small isolated rural schools to mount dominant programs, with most of the leading programs coming from urban and suburban regions.

Economics plays into the location aspect as well. At York High School, there is no predisposition to one sport or another. The students are open to try out different sports, even those that do not have potential for professional economics such as football at basketball.

These sports tend to favor lower class areas, where the athletes hope to find a career in the game, while the non-economic sports, sports it is unrealistic to even make a penny from, will tend to fall in the middle/upper middle class communities.

Combine these three factors, and you will find that the majority of sports dynasties lean towards middle/upper class communities in urban and suburban areas.

Another important ingredient in a successful high school athletics program is the coach. While this may seem obvious at first, there are three different ways a coach can create and maintain a successful program.

First and perhaps most importantly is the stability or consistency of a coach. This means retaining the same coach in the same program for a long time. The coach is responsible for creating expectations for his athletes.

At York, 3rd place state finisher Jordan Hebert says: “as a freshman, the upperclassmen really make you respect the program, and so you feel like you must work hard to become a good representative of the program yourself.”

The coach creates these expectations, which soon become instilled in the program forever.

Going hand in hand with expectations is the motivation a coach can provide his athletes so that they want to improve and succeed in the sport. The coach must win the respect of his athletes and be able to encourage them to work hard and stay dedicated.

One unique part of Newton’s coaching philosophy is that he will not give any athlete a uniform to compete in until they have completed a full race without walking.

This motivates them to work hard and feel like they have earned it to such a degree that, as Newton says: “When they graduate and leave the program they will want to take that uniform with them.”

At York, according to Hebert, Newton has “a really unique way of coaching because he will tell you when you are being a jackass, but he'll just as easily tell you when you’re being the best man he could have hoped for. You live for those moments, so when you feel like you’re not living up to your potential and letting him down, you just have to work that much harder.

Everything he says, everyone can uniquely take something different out of it for motivation and inspiration.” Essentially, Newton’s athletes want to work hard because they want him to accept and compliment their performances.

But perhaps the most important part of coaching is the physical aspect, and by this I mean the training regimen that a coach designs. The elite coaches stay true to these training plans year after year, keeping their athletes in better physical shape than their competition.

Noah Lawrence, a cross-country coach from Hinsdale Central High School, and a former York cross-country athlete, believes that the success at York is almost completely linked to the more difficult training of their athletes. He says: “York gets their kids to run 90 to 100 miles a week and this is what makes them great.

Every member of the team is completely dedicated and does not try to split cross-country with other activities.” Not only do they run high mileage, but the workouts themselves are also much more challenging.

York’s program is notorious for its infamous five by mile repeats and 100 times 100 meters on the track.

On my team, when someone asks what the workout is another might reply that we are running the “five by mile.” It is impossible for anyone to say it without a smirk on their face though, knowing that, in reality, our workout will be nothing compared to the hell that Newton puts his athlete’s bodies through every day.

Chris Derrick, the 2007 Illinois Cross Country State Champion and a current fifth place NCAA finisher at Stanford University, summed up the contributions of Coach Joe Newton perfectly. Derrick says: “Newton gets a lot of guys out for the program, motivates them to work hard, puts them through a strenuous training program, and maybe 15 or so of these guys survive and become elite high school runners. In a sport like cross country, this will win you championships year in and year out.”

Right, now into my exploration. I hit a barrier, because there are many schools located in ideal places with coaches who work their athletes hard and are great motivators. So what is the one factor that most schools are missing, the factor that allows some schools to soar while others remain average or even mediocre?

That factor is tradition, and it is something that every winning program must have. Tradition is essentially a combination of the first two factors.

If you have a favorable location and a good coach, you will begin to win, and you will establish a platform of tradition even before you become dominant. This tradition builds off the coach, while at the same time giving him more power.

What these successful schools are able to do is draw lots of students to the programs because of the winning history. At St. Joseph's High School in Missouri, the success of the athletic programs comes from the longevity of the school's coaches, as well as the eagerness of its athletes to join successful teams and maintain their winning attitude.

As Tom Wheatley explains in his article “Successful Schools use Similar Systems”; “success breeds success”.

In other words, once a program has shown it is capable of winning, this winning will continue. Every year, schools like York and St. Joseph's are able to attain and retain the top athletes for their program.

This includes many students who, if attending another school, would have participated in another sport such as football, soccer, or basketball. Every year, Joe Newton talks to the freshmen about joining his cross-country program.

He asks them to try it out for three days and see how they like it. His athletes also go around trying to sign up the newest students, reeling them in by explaining the success the program has had, and telling them that they can be part of the newest championship.

In total, Newton draws between 50 and 100 freshmen each year, far more than any other school in the state, which is why York’s team is far larger than all of its competition.

And in all of these programs, the success at high school level reaches down to the lower levels as well. York has such a history of high school success that the feeder schools have drawn cross-country athletes early, and with tradition you are able to build a feeder system unlike other programs, one that ensures top athletes coming in each year.

Combining these three factors, and you have program that will compete seriously year in and year out.

The Keys To Success for 2009's MLB Franchises

Nick Tyson — Mon, 09 Mar 2009 15:04:18 -0400

Today, I will embark on an exploration deep into Major League Baseball. I plan on investigating each of the franchises and coming up with one obstacle, that, if they overcome, will allow each team to be successful in 2009.

I hope that this can be an article that all baseball fans enjoy, and fans of specific teams can e-mail me with comments or changes to ensure accuracy. Enjoy!

Arizona Diamondbacks

This is a team that has a fairly easy road to success. They have a rock-solid bullpen and a strong pitching, as well as a number of guys who could step right in if anyone falters.

The key to success for the D-Backs will be the offensive play of their outfielders. Justin Upton just completed his first full major league season, and, needless to say, it was a somewhat disappointing campaign for the young outfielder. He will need step up his game and stay consistent through the entire 2009 season.

Eric Byrnes played tremendous in 2007, earning himself a hefty contract, but he was never able to show he deserved the contract after a lousy 2008 that was plagued by injury. He will not be back until mid-March, but when he returns he will have to be the same aggressive base swiper he was in 2007 when he stole over 40.

And finally, Chris Young. In terms of average and OBP, he improved in 2008. But an OBP under .320 and an average under .250 is unacceptable, and these numbers must improve. In addition, Young needs to find some of the speed that allowed him to swipe 27 in 2007, as opposed to 14 last year. If these three guys step up, Arizona will be in the hunt the entire season.

Atlanta Braves

This is not as obvious as the D-Backs, but most of the team looks to perform fairly well. The bullpen is the most worrying part of the club. The Braves are counting on two guys (Gonzalez and Soriano), neither of whom where healthy last season, to be their primary relief guys.

And outside of Buddy Carlyle, the Braves have no other good relievers and do not have much in terms of relief pitching in their farm system. Soriano and Gonzalez will both need to remain healthy, and a few younger guys will need to step up if the Braves want to have a chance in the NL East.

Baltimore Orioles

This team has a lot of holes to fill. The infield is riding on two aging guys at the corners and a very unproven shortstop. The outfield should be solid with Markakis, but Felix Pie is also a big question mark. But the biggest hole in the O's is, without a doubt, the starting rotation.

Outside of Jeremy Guthrie they really have nothing. They are counting on a pitcher who has never had an ERA in the majors under 6 (Liz) as their number two starter, they are riding on a pitcher who has never thrown a major league inning (Uehara) to fill the fourth or fifth role, and they are counting on Rich Hill, who the Cubs more or less dumped, to fill the end of the rotation.

The Orioles will either need the gods to be looking down on their rotation or they will need to make a solid move if they want to be in the AL East race with powerhouses NY and Boston.

Boston Red Sox

This is probably the strongest team in baseball. The offense, with the exception of Varitek at catcher, is rock solid. Hopefully, Ortiz will come back slugging as usual. The bullpen looks almost untouchable as well and should be able to hold onto any lead the offense gives it.

The weakest part of the Red Sox and the thing that could cost them perhaps even a playoff berth is the back end of the rotation. Right now, Tim Wakefield is slated as the No. 4 starter, and though his 2008 numbers were not by any means awful (10-11, 4.13 ERA), Wakefield is 43. If those knuckle balls stop moving, he could get whacked around big time.

In addition, Brad Penny is right now set as the fifth starter, which is certainly a big risk for the BoSox. Penny was not healthy for most of last season and did not have much success when he was healthy. In addition, he has never played in the AL before, and the huge switch to the AL East could cause him some problems.

Realistically, I think any pitching woes of these guys will be overcome by the strong offense, not to mention Clay Buchholz and Justin Masterson waiting in the wings, so I do not expect Boston to have much trouble racking up the wins.

Chicago Cubs

Another team with not too much to complain about. Sure, there are some offensive holes, but a strong lineup like the Cubbies have can makeup for a few small gaps. The bullpen looks to be improved from 2008 with the addition of Kevin Gregg and the probable move of Carlos Marmol to the closers role.

The biggest question mark for the 2009 Cubs is, like the Red Sox, their starting rotation. First off, will Zambrano remain healthy and avoid a meltdown? This means keeping his walks down and his ground ball-fly ball ratio high as well. The second question is if Ryan Dempster will be able to follow up his fantastic first year back as a starter with another solid campaign. This is the time he really has to prove himself, as hitters will know what to expect and he will have to adjust.

And most importantly, much is riding on the health of Rich Harden, who has yet to throw in spring training. Yes, Harden is arguably a top starter when healthy, but when on the DL it is hard to give him this title. If all three of these guys can stay healthy and perform, it will take pressure off Ted Lilly and Sean Marshall, and the team should have no problem finding its way to the playoffs for a third year in a row.

Chicago White Sox

The White Sox have a lot of issues that they need to sort out. The back end of the rotation is unsettled with the loss of Vasquez, and Brian Anderson is a big question mark in center. The most worrying part of this team is their starting infield, though. In order for the White Sox to make it to the playoffs in 2009, they will have to either make a trade or find someone in their farm system to fill their infield needs.

Currently, they have no proven second basemen on the roster, a starting shortstop with less than 500 career at-bats (given, Ramirez showed much potential in 2008), a first baseman whose production slowed tremendously in 2008, and a third baseman who has a career major league batting average of .233.

And to those who say Josh Fields was unbelievable in 2007, 125 strikeouts, a .244 BA, and a .308 OBP in 373 at-bats is certainly not "unbelievable." The White Sox will need some of the veteran guys (Konerko and Dye) to help lead the rest of the young squad during the season.

Cincinnati Reds

This team really has lots of upsides when you look at it from top to bottom. The infield has some good young talent in Votto, Encarnacion, and Phillps, and the rotation looks like a good one as well with Volquez, Cueto, and a hopefully-revived Aaron Harang. The bullpen is certainly not great, but there are a few weapons in Francisco Cordero and David Weathers.

The biggest need for the Reds is to solidify their young outfield. Willy Taveras is a base running machine, but he will not get on base much or drive in runs, and so essentially he is the type of player that Ryan Freel was a few years ago, except much less versatile.

It scares me that the Reds have two unproven guys in the corner outfield positions. And I know you want to say Jay Bruce will be a star, but there are plenty of talented players who never pan out. Take a look at Alex Gordon and Billy Butler, who are still trying to figure out what it means to be a high-first-round draft choice.

If Bruce turns out to be a power-hitting on-base machine, and Dickerson the same, this team could surprise lots of people. If not, say hello to the bottom of the division.

Cleveland Indians

I could name so many areas where Cleveland needs improvement. Aside from Kerry Wood, who is already hurt, the bullpen scares the heck out of me. The rotation could be good...if Lee doesn't fall back into 2007 form and if Carmona comes back with his 2007 form.

The offense has a lot of unproven guys everywhere. This is what will depend if the Indians are a playoff caliber team or a bust: The play of Travis Hafner. If Hafner comes back, and I mean comes back with a fury, this team could be really, really good. Hafner has the ability to carry this team on his shoulders.

He walks almost a marathon a year on free passes, he hits them out of the park like it is his job, and he drives in runs like a machine. All of this when he is himself, who he really has not been for two years. I hope Hafner is back to form, because the Indians are an exciting team to watch when he is, and the fate of the 2009 season rests almost entirely in his hands.

Colorado Rockies

Was 2007 a fluke? I really have to believe not. The Rockies should have tried to hang on to Matt Holliday, and that is a move they will likely regret, but the offense is still very strong. Carlos Gonzalez, who was obtained in the Holliday deal, is a great young prospect, and Ian Stewart shows much promise at the hot corner.

For the most part, the bullpen also looks pretty good, with Houston Street closing games, Manny Corpas in the eighth, and Taylor Buchholz as the untouchable middle man. But the starting rotation is very hittable. Aaron Cook is the only non-question mark going into the season. Jeff Francis was not good last year while he was healthy, and who knows how he will come back from his injury?

The numbers for projected fourth starter Greg Reynolds were ugly last year, and Jason Marquis has trouble in pitcher's parks, so how will he be good in the hitter's paradise. I really have lots of doubt about the Rockies rotation; it is probably the only thing "rocky" about the team, so fans should hope that the rotation does better than projected and that the offense carries lots of the load.

Detroit Tigers

I really like this team. They are my sleeper pick of 2009. A few guys (Guillen, Polanco) are aging on offense, but I think the offense will be very good in 2009. I expect Granderson to bust out a terrific season, and I think Cabrera will keep fantasy owners smiling all season long.

The bullpen actually looks better than I would have thought; Lyon could be solid and Zumaya, if healthy, is dominating. Rodney is also a very good reliever if he keeps his emotions under control. The Tigers, and this one is obvious, need the rotation to stay consistent if they want to win in 2009, and if this happens they won't just win, they will win a lot.

Verlander will bounce back to 2007 levels. Galarraga is a talented young player with a high ceiling who should continue to improve. Bonderman has not played well since 2006, but I think he should return from his injuries and post some quality numbers. The back end with Nate Robertson and Edwin Jackson is shaky, but the offense will be so good that it really won't matter. This is a team that could find itself off to an early hot streak.

Florida Marlins

The Marlins are a young team with lots of young talent. Hanley Ramirez is a five-tool player who should dominate the league for the next 10 years. Jorge Cantu had a breakthrough season last year and should continue this production. Cameron Maybin has the tools to become a 40/40 player and he just needs to develop these tools further.

The bullpen, led by youngster Ricky Nolasco, is deep, young, and talented. The Marlins need some of their relievers to step up if they wish to compete with the Phils and Mets in the NL East. Right now, Matt Lindstrom, an unproven pitcher, is their opening day closer, and Scottie Proctor and Renyel Pinto are essentially the only other notables in the pen.

Recently-acquired Leo Nunez of Kansas City showed great upside with Kansas City, and he may need to fill the set-up or even closers role if things do not go as planned. Florida is probably too young and undeveloped to gain a playoff berth, but a season over .500 is definitely possible if the relief pitching can hang onto late-inning leads.

Houston Astros

This team could be either great or awful, no middle ground. To start it off, the rotation is a lot of "what ifs" outside of Roy Oswalt. The front office must be crazy to have Mike Hampton slated as the No. 4 starter, because I would never want to rely on him to go every fifth day. In addition, can Michael Bourn learn how to actually reach base so he can make use of his inhuman speed?

The biggest question for Houston is, like always, on the offensive side of things, but specifically the left side of the infield and catcher spots. I have never even heard of their starting catcher, but from looking at his offensive stats, he looks like a backup catcher, the opposite of what Houston needs.

In addition, 35-year-old Aaron Boone is manning third base, which should scare Houston fans. Boone has not played a full season since 2005, and the only guy backing him up is equally-talented Geoff Blum. And finally, at shortstop, we have 34-year-old Miguel Tejada, who was certainly not exceptional in 2008 and shows no reason why he will improve in 2009.

Houston always has offensive troubles, but the rotation this year may be weaker than in the past, and a lack of run production will hurt this team where is counts...the victory column.

Kansas City Royals

This team is a mess. They draft lousy players, sign out-of-date bad-chemistry free agents, and trade whatever talent they have. The upside of the team is Joakim Soria, Zack Greinke, and maybe Alex Gordon. The two guys in the middle infield (Mike Aviles and Alberto Callaspo) showed some skills in limited action last year, which is certainly a positive.

The thing that will kill KC's offense is the catcher and first base positions. Mike Jacobs could not even hit over .250 in the National League. What reason is there that he would find more success in the AL? Jacobs also did not get on base and was not the answer to the Royals' problems.

Also, John Buck is their opening day catcher, and that is just embarrassing. Since when can you be a .224 BA catcher and find a starting job on a major league team? I don't care if Buck can throw out 70 percent of would-be base stealers...he will lose more runs with his bat than he will prevent behind the plate.

Even if Jacobs and Buck were to increase their respective averages by 50 points each, Kansas City still has plenty of holes to fill, but it would certainly be one hell of a start.

Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim

This is a well-balanced, well-put-together ball club. The outfield is a little on the old side, but for the time being will be better than 90 percent of outfields in the majors. The rotation is one that sparkles, and a healthy John Lackey could win 20 games. And even with the loss of K-Rod, the bullpen is still among the best in baseball, with longtime setup man Scot Shields along with new closer Brian Fuentes standing out.

The infield is the area that worries me the most because a lot of these guys are unproven. Izturis and Morales both did not hit for high averages in 2008, and the offense is without a doubt LA's weakness. These guys needs to up their productions, and Chone Figgins needs to get on base, steal bases, and score runs.

The outfield will be very strong for the Angels, so I suspect that the young infield will not have too much pressure on it, but if one of the outfielders falls to injury, someone will be forced to step up.

Los Angeles Dodgers

This is another team loaded with young talent from top to bottom. Their lineup had its first test last year and Loney, Kemp, and Ethier all had fine years. The return of Furcal will help the offense score more runs than before, and Orlando Hudson should get on base much more than the aging Jeff Kent did last year.

The bullpen also looks to be hard to hit, with Broxton moving into the closer's role full time and Kuo as his premier setup man. The worrying thing about the 2009 Dodgers is their rotation. If the rotation can come through, it will be them and the Diamondbacks battling it out once again for the NL West crown.

Billingsly has been fantastic the past two years, but I am wary about making a 24-year-old pitcher with only two full years of ML experience under his belt the No. 1 starter. If he falters, the entire rotation will collapse. Behind Billingsly is Kuroda, who should if anything improve after seeing what the MLB is all about.

But 20-year-old Clayton Kershaw, a guy who did not find much success in the majors last year, is slated as the No. 3 starter, when all else indicates that he should start off in the bullpen and ease his way into a fifth spot in the rotation, or somewhere where not too much is being asked of him.

Randy Wolf is a decent fourth starter, but the team would look much stronger if he could be their fifth starter, and Jason Schmidt is a complete question mark. He could come back and dominate like he did in the past, or he could come back, falter, and find his way back on the DL. And then who would take his place?

Milwaukee Brewers

The Brewers had a pretty solid 2008 season, but it will be hard for them to repeat unless several things fall into place. The lineup should be steady, as it's headed by Prince Fielder, Ryan Braun, Corey Hart, and JJ Hardy. The rotation will be weakened from last year with the loss of Sheets, but Yovanni Gallardo, if healthy, can pick up where Sheets left off, and Manny Parra should be able to improve on his rookie year.

The key to the success of the Brewers will be the bullpen. Relying on Trevor Hoffman, whose progress has declined each year lately, seems very familiar to last year's situation. Unfortunately, this year, the next in line is Todd Coffey or Jorge Julio, two guys who have proven they are not fit for the closer role.

The Brewers will have problems in late innings due to a lack of depth in the pen, and they better hope Hoffman has one more brilliant season in him, or else it will be a long season for fans.

Minnesota Twins

Here is a team that is pretty solid all around and only great in a few spots (back end of bullpen, first base, catcher). The rotation is filled with a bunch of young guys who could falter, but I expect Liriano to dominate once more as he did in 2007.

My worry and the key to the Twins success is the offensive production of their outfield. Michael Cuddyer was not the same player last year that he was in 2007 and 2006, and he will need to pick up his production to help lead fellow outfielders Carlos Gomez and Delmon Young. Also, the Twins outfield offers really no guys that can even hit 20 home runs. Cuddyer is sure capable of it, but who knows who else?

And the rest of the lineup is not exactly a power lineup either, outside of Justin Morneau. I worry that this is a lineup that will be virtually shut out by dominant or even above-average starters.

New York Mets

The Mets have the opportunity (if they do not blow it this year) to be among the best in the majors. Their bullpen is much stronger than in the past few years; Johan Santana will be much improved with his second season in the NL, and Jose Reyes and David Wright will be good, very good.

The X-factor for the Mets and the thing that will decide if they are a good team or a great team will be the production of Carlos Delgado. Delgado's 2008 season was tremendous, a big improvement from the previous few years. But will he be able to match 2008's production or even improve upon it? It seems unlikely, based on Delgado's age (36). If he can manage to bat above .270 this year and hit 30 home runs, it once again it will be a battle between NY and Philly atop the NL East.

New York Yankees

After another disappointing season, the Yankees made a few big moves in the offseason to make sure that the playoffs are a certainty in 2009. On paper, they look great this year, but anything can happen when the season begins.

The lineup should be rock solid; Posada and Jeter are seeing their productions offensively slow down as age catches up with them, but fortunately the Yanks signed 28-year-old Mark Teixeira, and his offense should more than make up for these two.

They also signed CC Sabathia, one of the most elite pitchers in either league, and AJ Burnett, who was able to complete a full season last year without any health issues. My biggest concern for the Yankees is their bullpen. Mariano Rivera is very reliable as a closer, but behind him, there are not any proven veterans for the late innings, nor is there anyone ready to step in if Rivera were to go down.

There will be a lot of pressure on 27-year-old Edwar Ramirez to fill the setup role. He had a solid 2008 season, but the team will need him to be even better in 2009 if they want to reach their goal of a World Series.

An offense as strong as New York's and the newly-improved rotation should have the Yankees with exponential leads heading into the majority of their late-inning games, but in the close battles, the bullpen will be pivotal, and it could be the difference between a first-round exit and that Championship banner.

Oakland Athletics

This is a team that wants to win, and they want to do it in 2009. What other reason is their for signing Orlando Cabrera, Jason Giambi, and trading for Matt Holliday? These three deals will help the offense improve greatly from where it was in 2008. The bullpen has lots of young arms who were dominant in 2008, and although they may have to adjust to the hitters in their second go-arounds, this will not be a problem.

And Justin Duchscherer? Don't even get me started, because 2008 was unbelievable. But can he repeat it? The A's need Duch to match his 2008 season, and they need the bottom three in their rotation to keep them in every game if they want to compete with the Angles in the AL West.

Sean Gallagher is slated as the third starter, which, considering his ERA was in the area of 6 during his short stint last season with the Athletics, is a little frightening. Gallagher has great talent and someday will be a stud, but it may be a little too soon to force him into a position where he will be counted on. The fourth spot is set to be for Dallas Braden, who, although his numbers have not been eye-popping, looks like he may be the best fit for the A's.

And in the fifth spot is longtime White Sox prospect Gio Gonzalez, with an ERA upwards of 7 during his time with the Athletics last season. Gonzalez, like Gallagher, has loads of talent, but he also has a history of injury and has only pitched 34 career major league innings. It will be an interesting season if these youngsters come through.

Philadelphia Phillies

The Phillies have one of the strongest offenses in the NL. The catcher's spot and third base spot could be better, but it is impossible to downgrade the contributions of Jimmy Rollins, Chase Utley, and Ryan Howard. The lineup is flat-out scary. The bullpen is also rock solid, with a newly disciplined Brad Lidge as well as Chan Ho Park, Chad Durbin, and JC Romero, to name a few.

But outside of Cole Hamels, the Phils rotation could turn into a disaster. As their No. 2 starter, Joe Blanton saw his stats skyrocket last year. He brought his numbers down during his stint in the NL, but he is a fly ball guy pitching at Citizens, a hitter's paradise, and he could face trouble. Brett Myers has really been a different pitcher since 2006. He needs to regain that form he had in 2005 and 2006 and battle hitters again.

At No. 4 is Jamie Moyer, and while he had one of his best seasons in 2008, all great stories have to come to an end at some point. Will this be the year that 46-year-old Moyer faces reality and gets slugged by the NL bats? It very well could be. Also, No. 5 Kyle Kendrick had an ERA around 5.50 last year. Great teams have a great pitching rotation, and this means that Kendrick will need to challenge hitters and keep his pitches under control if his team is to repeat its Series run.

Pittsburgh Pirates

This is another team with a lot of holes in it. Unlike the other teams, however, there really are not a lot of positions that look to be strong. The bullpen has very few proven guys outside of Matt Capps. But it does not matter how strong your bullpen is if you do not have any starting pitching to keep the other teams scoring limited, or any solid hitting to give your team a lead.

The young starters will need to play great if the Pirates want to even have a chance competing with the Cubs, Cards, and Brewers in the NL. Paul Maholm was very good in 2008, but not exactly No. 1 starter material. Zach Duke has gotten worse since his tremendous rookie year, and Ian Snell was horrific last year. Duke I have no idea on, but Snell will improve significantly from 2008 and perhaps match his 2007 season performance.

The offense presents another problem, but since I am focusing on a single obstacle for each team, I will have to say that the pitching is more important to the Pirates success than their offensive production, which should be aided by Nate McLouth, Jack Wilson, and Adam LaRoche.

San Diego Padres

The Padres historically (or at least in the last five years) have been a team with little or no offense and a good rotation and even better bullpen. This trend will continue into 2009, as the bullpen looks strong even with the loss of longtime closer Trevor Hoffman, and the rotation headed by Jake Peavey (for the time being) looks to be successful as well.

The batting order is another story. The infield actually looks like it could be somewhat productive with the consistent Adrian Gonzalez, his brother Edgar, and the newly-signed David Eckstein to go along with Kevin Kouz on the rleft side.

The outfield is not that good. Brian Giles is really the only proven outfielder, yet he is aging and his production is slowing. He can still get on base at a high rate, but his power numbers are diminished. Center field will go to either Scott Hairston or Jody Gerut, both longtime bench players who do not know what it feels like to play a full MLB season.

And prospect Chase Headley is set to start in left, but with a team already struggling to find offense, is it a good idea to risk a rookie in a corner outfield spot? Pads fans better hope he produces.

San Francisco Giants

This is almost the same scenario as their neighboring Padres. The Giants have one of the most talented young rotations in the league, headed by 2008 Cy Young award winner Tim Lincecum. After him, Matt Cain has also shown signs of greatness, and Jonathon Sanchez is dominant if he can throw strikes. Who knows how Barry Zito will fare as the No. 3 starter? If he is even decent, the rotation as a whole will be above average.

The bullpen is not particularly strong, but Brian Wilson is a solid closer, and the pen as a whole should be improved with the addition of Bob Howry. The offense has lots of question marks...I am going to say that the players that can change the fate of San Fran in 2009 are Edgar Renteria and Aaron Rowand.

Renteria moved back to the NL after a lackluster season in Detroit, and he needs to play like he did during his 2007 fantastic season in Atlanta. Rowand needs to forget about his miserable season in 2008 and return to his 2007 form, when he hit .309 with 27 home runs. Between the two of them, Renteria and Rowand have the ability to carry this offense and provide enough runs so that the pitching can do the rest of the work.

Seattle Mariners

Toward the bottom of this list, it seems we have a lot of the same type of teams. Like the previous two teams, the Mariners' biggest struggle is scoring runs. If Bedard comes back like 2007, and Washburn returns to form, the starting rotation could be not bad. Brandon Morrow was great for most of last season and he should translate his relief success into starting success as well.

I am going to put the performance of this team on the productions of Jeff Clement, Kenji Johjima, and Ken Griffey Jr. DH, catcher, and LF are some of the most run-producing positions on the field. If Junior plays like he is 30 again, Johjima plays closer to his 2007 season than last year, and Jeff Clement plays like a third-overall pick should play, the offense could be considerably better than it was in 2008.

The Mariners are going to have a tough time competing with the Angels, A's, and even the Rangers in the division, but production out of these three players could make it much easier.

St. Louis Cardinals

The Cards should be back in the talks of the top teams in the NL. Their offense is one of the Top Five in the league, with Ludwick, Pujols, and Rick Ankiel. Khalil Greene will add more pop to the lineup and should display great defensive range as well. Izzy is out as closer for good, but Ryan Franklin proved effective last year during a part-time closer role, and he should be able to continue to convert save after save in 2009.

They also have a few young arms in the pen with Chris Perez and Kyle McClellen. What will either take the Cards to the playoffs or leave them out of October will be the returns of Chris Carpenter and Adam Wainwright.

The last time we saw a successful Carpenter was in 2006 when he won 15 games. In a few innings last year, Carpenter showed what he still has. Wainwright only started 20 games in 2008, and while he was starting he was shutting down other team's lineups. He will need to throw 30 or more starts in 2009.

Tampa Bay Rays

The Ray's success in 2008 was not a fluke. Their starting pitching was great, they played good defense, and they had a strong bullpen.

The weakest part was without a doubt the offense, and it should be greatly improved with the addition of Carl Crawford (who missed much of last season), a full-time Evan Longoria, who was great in his short major league stint, and an improved BJ Upton, who saw all numbers outside of his power numbers drop last year.

But the guy who can make or break the Rays in 2009 is Pat Burrell. Burrell has a history of starting out hot and cooling off as the season goes on, and he will need to stay consistent throughout the entire season. Burrell is one of the top on-base hitters in the league, and this should continue into the AL as well.

He only has to improve upon Eric Hinske's 2008 numbers, which should not be too difficult, and the Rays will be in the same position they were last year.

Texas Rangers

The Rangers have the pieces to have one of the top offenses in the American League, and it can certainly be as good and maybe better than the rival Angels. Ian Kinsler has emerged as a star along with Josh Hamilton, and Boggs and Murphy in the corner outfield spots could be future All-Stars as well.

The worrying thing about the Rangers is the inferiority of their pitching staff to the Angels. Opening day starter as of today is Kevin Millwood, and though he had a great 2005 season, it is time to wake up and realize that it is now 2009 and his ERA has been above 5 the past two years.

Millwood and Vincente Padilla are the only two veteran guys on the staff, and they will need to lead by example if the other three young starters are to succeed. If both Padilla and Millwood can bring their respective ERAs around 3.0 in 2009, not only will it directly affect the team in terms of victories, but it will take some of the load off the youngsters shoulders to work miracles on the mound.

As things stand today, the Rangers look like they will still sit in the shadow of the Angels in the AL West, but production out of the rotation could change this in a hurry.

Toronto Blue Jays

With a healthy BJ Ryan and Vernon Wells, the Jays should be competitive in the AL East. Their pitching looks to be strong with workhorse Roy Halladay, second year Jesse Litsch, and Shaun Marcum, one of the top young starters in the league. The pen for the most part should be only behind Boston in the AL east with Scott Downs, Jesse Carlson, and Ryan.

There will be a lot of pressure on Vernon Wells to perform like he did in 2006. This is tough, because Wells is a very unpredictable hitter (.269, .303, .245, and .300 respectively over the past four years). In 2006, he carried a weaker team by driving in 106 runs on 32 home runs. If Wells can hold his own in center field and produce at the plate, Jays fans will have a team worth watching in 2009.

Washington Nationals

The Nats have so many holes that it is impossible to know where to start. They are like the Pirates in some regards, as there really is not a single strength on the team. I will choose the starting rotation as the key to Washington's success, because they seem to have a few decent hitters in Dunn, Zimmerman, and Guzman, but even these three cannot turn this into an above-average lineup.

What we have in the rotation is a top starter who pitched his first full season last year and should be a No. 3 starter. They have a No. 2 starter in Scott Olson, who has good pitches if he can locate them, and has some potential, but the numbers he put up last year mean he should be a No. 4 starter. No. 3 starter Daniel Cabrera would not even make the fifth spot on almost all other major league teams.

And we have two unproven fourth and fifth starters who probably should not be in the majors. All this said, the fate of the Nats (in this case the difference between a 100-loss season and an 80-loss season) will be the productions of John Lannan, Olson, and Cabrera.

On a staff with two guys who have not pitched a full season, these three will have to do extra work, be role models for the young(er) guys, and pitch like they have never pitched before if they want their team to win at all.

Well, there you have it. Again, I encourage fans to make corrections to this article so we can have the most accurate keys-to-success list for each team that is possible. I thank everyone who took the time to read this and hope you liked it.

This article was originally written for www.fantasyfootballmaniaxs.com, where you can check out the latest tips and news for your fantasy team.