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Dallas Mavericks: Full Stat Projections for Mavericks' Starting Lineup

Sam CooperCorrespondent IIIOctober 25, 2016

Dallas Mavericks: Full Stat Projections for Mavericks' Starting Lineup

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    Last year, the Dallas Mavericks went 57-25, good enough for third in the West, but not many expected them to win it all.

    But all the pieces clicked at the right time. The Mavericks rode a great postseason from Dirk Nowitzki and got key contributions from Jason Terry, Tyson Chandler, J.J. Barea and others ; they got a depth of contributions no other team could match and rode all the way to the NBA championship. Both Kidd and Nowitzki finally won well-deserved rings.

    This year, head coach Rick Carlisle will lead a Mavs team with a very different roster. Some great players left the team, like Tyson Chandler, J.J Barea and Caron Butler. The team did make some nice additions in Vince Carter and Lamar Odom, as well as Delonte West, but many are scratching their heads at figuring out what the starting rotation will be.

    Dallas had a huge amount of depth last year, which was one of the main reasons they prevailed against the Heat. This year, they also have a huge amount of depth. Jason Terry and Lamar Odom will steal minutes away from starters, and Nowitzki and Kidd aren't getting any younger. 

    The key question to ask is: How will each of these players—specifically those in the starting rotation—fare based on the offseason moves and the shortened 66-game season?

    The answer can be found 66 regular-season games from now, but for now, all we can do is predict each player's performance and watch as the season kicks off a few days from now. 

    Here are full stat projections for every Dallas Maverick in the starting rotation. 

Jason Kidd

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    It was inevitable that the 38-year-old future Hall of Famer would eventually show signs of wearing down. Last year was that year for Kidd. He dropped to just eight points a game and shot just 36 percent from the field. Additionally, that three-point shot, which he had developed to be extremely dangerous, took a drop from 43 percent to 34 percent.

    Kidd still has a couple years left in the tank; he's still a great passer and amazing defender, and is an all-around versatile player who can shoot, pass, rebound and steal the ball.

    But this year, the Mavericks will likely need to keep his minutes fairly low, or at least low for a starter. I'd expect him to play about 28 minutes a game, or possibly a little higher, but I highly doubt that he will play more than 30 minutes a game. Although there are only 66 games this year, the games will be more concentrated and Kidd may even take a few games off, especially during the back-to-back-to-back nights.

    Delonte West, Rodrigue Beaubois and Dominique Jones will need to take some pressure and stress off of Kidd's aging body. 


    2010-2011 Stats:

    G           MPG           PPG          RPG           APG          STL           BLK         FG%         3P%

    80          33.2            7.9              4.4             8.2            1.7           0.4         .361         .340


    2011-2012 Projections:

    G           MPG           PPG          RPG           APG          STL           BLK         FG%         3P%

    63          27.8            6.9             3.9               7.4            1.4           0.3          .401         .363

Vince Carter

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    Vince Carter had a great start to his career. He was amazing in Toronto and in New Jersey, but his career started going downhill when he arrived in Orlando.

    Last season, once traded to Phoenix, Carter didn't look like the same person that he was earlier in his career. He had 14 points and four rebounds a game in Phoenix and shot just 42 percent from the field. By late March, the Suns benched him and he was playing about 24 minutes a game behind Jared Dudley.

    Now, Carter will reunite with Jason Kidd in Dallas. Although Carter will take the starting spot, the 34-year-old may only possess that title without getting the minutes. Sixth man Jason Terry is likely to get the bulk of minutes at SG, and Beaubois and Jones will also be in the rotation, taking minutes from Carter.

    Carter is likely to reduce his stat production due to a decrease in minutes, and I doubt that going to Dallas will rejuvenate his career.


    2010-2011 Stats:

    G           MPG           PPG          RPG           APG          STL           BLK         FG%         3P%

    73          28.1            14.0           3.8              2.0            0.9            0.3         .437         .361


    2011-2012 Projections:

    G           MPG           PPG          RPG           APG          STL           BLK         FG%         3P%

    59         25.0             12.1           3.8              1.6             0.7           0.2          .428         .359

Shawn Marion

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    Marion is another player like Carter who has been struggling since he turned about 30. Last season, Marion was not bad, but spent most of his time on the bench. He started 27 of his 80 games played and put up 12.5 points and 6.9 rebounds a game.

    This season, Marion may see a slight decrease in minutes. Peja Stojakovic and DeShawn Stevenson are gone, but now that the Mavs have Lamar Odom, Marion will be forced to share. 

    For this season, I'd expect about the same stats for The Matrix. He might lose a couple points due to a reduction in minutes, but he still has plenty of time left in the NBA. It will be interesting to see if he ever gets his three-point shot back. After shooting above 30 percent from beyond the arc for almost all of his prime years in Phoenix, he has shot just about 16 percent from beyond the arc in his two seasons with Dallas. 


    2010-2011 Stats:

    G           MPG           PPG          RPG           APG          STL           BLK         FG%         3P%

    80          28.2            12.5           6.9              1.4            0.9            0.6         .520         .152


    2011-2012 Projections:

    G           MPG           PPG          RPG           APG          STL           BLK         FG%         3P%

    64          27.1            11.8           6.6              1.2            0.9             0.6         .506          .195

Dirk Nowitzki

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    Dirk Nowitzki is the obvious starter at power forward this season.

    He is still the star of the team, and although he is on the wrong side of 30, he keeps getting better and is still in his prime. Despite the fact that his regular-season numbers were down slightly last year, Nowitzki still gets it done in a big way in percentages and points scored, and that doesn't figure to change anytime soon.

    He also doesn't get nearly enough credit for his durability. In his past 12 seasons, Dirk has missed a total of 38 games. 

    Also, the Mavs will be relying on Dirk to continue to put up big minutes and stay healthy, because they can't afford to have him start declining anytime soon. With Brian Cardinal and Brandan Wright as backups for Dirk, the Mavs will continue to play him a large amount of minutes this season, if not more than last season.


    2010-2011 Stats:

    G           MPG           PPG          RPG           APG          STL           BLK         FG%         3P%

    73          34.3             23.0          7.0              2.6            0.5            0.6         .517         .393


    2011-2012 Projections:

    G           MPG           PPG          RPG           APG          STL           BLK         FG%         3P%

    64          35.4            23.9           7.6               2.7           0.5             0.7         .504        .390

Brendan Haywood

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    After signing a six-year, $55 million contract last season, Haywood lost the position battle with Tyson Chandler and finished the season averaging only 18.5 minutes per game off the bench. A dominant shot-blocker when given minutes, Haywood will have very big shoes to fill this season. 

    Haywood provided eight starts last season, in which he never provided a double-double. He had 10 or more rebounds in four out of the eight games. But the only statistic that really jumps out at you is 2.3 blocks in the eight games.

    After the loss of Chandler, the Mavs are counting on Haywood to be a consistent and efficient rebound machine and shot-blocker. He doesn't have to score points, but with Ian Mahinmi and Brandan Wright as his backups, he will get a huge amount of minutes compared to last season. Mavs fans are hoping he can ease the burden of losing Chandler by providing a solid amount of rebounds and blocks. 


    2010-2011 Stats:

    G           MPG           PPG          RPG           APG          STL           BLK         FG%         3P%

    72          18.5            4.4              5.2              0.3           0.2            1.0         .574         .000


    2011-2012 Projections:

    G           MPG           PPG          RPG           APG          STL           BLK          FG%         3P%

    62          30.6            8.1              9.0             0.5             0.4            1.8          .541         .000

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