2011-12 Miami Heat Predictions and NBA Betting Preview

Doc MosemanCorrespondent IDecember 21, 2011

MIAMI, FL - DECEMBER 18:  LeBron James #6 of the Miami Heat greets fans during a preseason game against the Orlando Magic at AmericanAirlines Arena on December 18, 2011 in Miami, Florida. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this Photograph, user is consenting to the terms and condition of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Mike Ehrmann/Getty Images)
Mike Ehrmann/Getty Images

With all due respect to the Chris Paul trade and all those Dwight Howard rumors, there is one clear overriding story line heading into the 2011-12 NBA season and it’s the same as last year: Can anyone beat the Heat?

Of course, we all know that one team did manage to do that last season, with the Mavericks pulling the upset in the NBA Finals and setting off celebrations pretty much everywhere across the United States other than south Florida (and especially in Cleveland). LeBron James’ “Decision” made him public enemy No. 1 and turned the the Heat into the NBA’s most villainous team since probably the Bad Boy Pistons.

As good as Miami was last year, they will be better in 2012. Free agent acquisition Shane Battier will be a big reason why. Battier shot 38 percent on three-pointers last season and is a career 39 percent shooter from long range.

Plus, Battier has a terrific work ethic, is great in the locker room and is one of the smartest players in the league—it’s why several contenders wanted him. Battier, whose natural position is small forward, will be able to give LeBron some rest while also playing on the court with the Big 3 with James handling the point guard duties.

The only other major addition as of this writing was slimmed-down center Eddy Curry, but he has not played in three seasons. Miami also re-signed restricted free agent point guard Mario Chalmers but still could chase a veteran point guard who might be released and who might take the minimum to win a ring.

As for player departures, Miami lost big men Jamaal Magliore, Erick Dampier and Zydrunas Ilgauskas, although none of them did much of anything a year ago. Also gone is point guard Mike Bibby, who was acquired late last season.

2011-12 Miami Heat Futures Odds

On Bovada, the Heat are +200 favorites to win the NBA title and 10/11 to win the East.

James is 3/1 to win NBA MVP, while Wade is 9/1.

2011-12 Miami Heat Schedule

The Heat open their season against the team that ended Miami’s 2010-11 season: at Dallas on Christmas Day. The home opener is two games later against rival Boston.

The Heat’s 66-game slate includes 18 back-to-backs, and one back-to-back-to-back in the middle of a six-game road trip. The Heat will play four games in five nights six times and have three separate road trips that encompass three games in four nights.

April shapes up to be the most grueling month. Beginning on April 12 at Chicago and ending on April 22 vs. Houston, the Heat will play eight games in 11 nights. Miami does face the Lakers twice: Jan. 19 in South Florida and March 4 in L.A.

The season concludes April 26 at Washington.

2011-12 Miami Heat Predictions

Everyone is saying all the right things this year in Miami. LeBron says he’s not going to play the angry villain role anymore. "I play the game fun, joyful, and I let my game do all of the talking and I got away from that. That's what I lost last year."

Meanwhile, Chris Bosh says he’s now comfortable playing third fiddle after having some trouble in that role a year ago.

Plus LeBron, Wade and Bosh all showed up to camp in tremendous shape, which not every player can claim after the lengthy lockout.

The Heat should be the odds-on title favorites and will win it all if they stay healthy. Unfortunately, that’s already a problem. Swingman Mike Miller, who was being counted on to stretch defenses with his three-point shooting, was a non-factor last season. He missed most of it with a wrist injury and never got right. Miller already has undergone hernia surgery and will miss at least the first month or so of the season.

But power forward Udonis Haslem is healthy after also missing most of last season, and Haslem showed how important he was in the East Finals against Chicago.

The Heat are still pretty weak at point guard and definitely at center, where the undersized Haslem probably will spend most of his time, although Joel Anthony is listed as the starter.

And who takes the last shot in a close game on this team? LeBron seemed to shrink from that role last year and deferred to Wade. James was definitely too passive in the Finals against the Mavs. Perhaps a “looser” James will translate into a more aggressive James.

For what it’s worth, LeBron worked on his post game—probably his biggest weakness—during the offseason. In the NBA Finals, Dallas coach Rick Carlisle and the Mavericks stifled James on the perimeter and James tried in vain to shift his game inside.

“If we don’t win a championship, it’s a bust year,” Wade said.

They will.


Doc Moseman is the owner of Doc’s Sports NBA picks Web site.