NFL: Why San Francisco 49ers Can (and Will) Beat Green Bay Packers in Playoffs

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The resurrection of the San Francisco 49ers is one of the most compelling stories of the 2011 NFL season.

They've risen from the ashes of last year's travesty of a season (all you need to know is that they started the 2010 season with five straight losses) and put together a team that many consider a legitimate contender in the NFC.

Why?

Because their quarterback situation is healthy, their running game is productive and their defense is dependable.

The latest playoff predictor on ESPN.com has San Francisco clinching the No. 2 seed in the NFC, earning a first-round bye and having home-field advantage against any team not named Green Bay.

If New Orleans is the No. 3 seed (which is just about a lock) Drew Brees & Company will have to travel to Candlestick Park. Brees will break Marino's single-season record of 5,084 passing yards; but the Saints don't travel well, losing road games against St. Louis (what?) and Tampa Bay (the Jaguars beat them!).

That means that San Francisco has a really good shot at playing Green Bay in the NFC title game.

And I think San Francisco has built the team with the best chance of beating the seemingly invincible Packers. How?

Join me as I show you why San Francisco not only matches up well, but should be favorites to win against Green Bay.

Frank Gore Controls the Clock

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What was the difference between Green Bay's loss last weekend to Kansas City and all their other games this season?

Time of possession.

The Chiefs held the ball for 36:11; the Packers only held it for 25:49. That's a difference of 10 minutes and 22 seconds—the largest disparity of possession the Packers have had all season and one of only a handful of games that Aaron Rodgers hasn't had it for more than half the game.

There's only three games this season that San Francisco hasn't held the ball more than their opponents. Frank Gore, who has the fourth-most carries in the league, is an absolute workhorse. The 49ers have leaned on him just as much as any other team in the league and it has led to their best record since Steve Young was quarterback.

Gore can control the clock and keep Rodgers on the bench.

But it's what Gore does after he gets the ball that's the real advantage...

San Francisco's Run on the Edge

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You see, Gore is a tough back who can hit the hole with the best of them. But he's also fast; and one of his biggest strengths is the speed to which he runs around tackle.

Green Bay's run defense against the off-tackle run is weak. Very weak. They're giving up 108.4 yards per game on the ground, and that's with every single one of their opponents having trailed in games. The Packers have led every game they've played at some point in the game, and opponents have still pounded away at the running game.

Gore is one of the best sideline running backs, averaging 5.2 yards per carry off the left tackle and 4.8 yards per carry off the right tackle—better averages than up the middle or behind the guards.

And don't forget Kendall Hunter, the rookie backup running back who has rushed more times (37) for more yards (175) than any other position on the field.

Their Offensive Lineman Are Most Athletic in NFL

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There's one reason that Frank Gore has 4.1 yards per carry when he runs in between the tackles—and his name is Mike Iupati.

Iupati, a second-year guard from Idaho, personifies all the things that have pushed San Francisco's running game to be one of the best in the NFL. He's quick off the line, agile and able to get to opposing linebackers a hair faster than most other interior linemen.

Just look at what Green Bay's defense gave up against similarly athletic offensive lines—Oakland (117 yards), Minnesota (218 yards) and Denver (119 yards).

San Francisco's offensive line will take advantage just as those other teams did. The only difference between the 49ers and those aforementioned teams is that the 49ers have Alex Smith.

Alex Smith Is Taking More Chances and Making Fewer Mistakes

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When your quarterback has been healthy enough to take all but five snaps this season, you're lucky. When he's also been able to limit his interceptions to five, you're really lucky. And when he can round it out with nearly 3,000 yards and 20 touchdowns for the season, you're the San Francisco 49ers.

Alex Smith isn't having the same kind of statistically mind-boggling season as Drew Brees or Eli Manning. But his team is doing better.

That's because Smith takes the mistake-free game manager he was a few years ago and is learning how to throw the ball down field.

Case in point—25 percent of Smith's pass attempts (97-for-389) are going 11 yards or more. That's on par with Tom Brady (31 percent) and Drew Brees (28 percent).

49ers Have the Best Run Defense in the League

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San Francisco has the best run defense in the league—allowing just 71.5 yards per game from opponents.

To put that in perspective, the worst run offense in the league, the New York Giants, is averaging 86.1 yards per game.

That means that the 49ers are stopping teams for 15 yards less than the worst run offense is doing every week.

But Green Bay relies on their passing game. With Aaron Rodgers, the Packers running game is an afterthought.

Exactly!

With the best run defense in the league, the 49ers can commit less guys to stopping the run and still stop the run. They can then move an extra player into pass coverage—the real strength of the Green Bay offense—and frustrate Aaron Rodgers & Company much like the Chiefs did last weekend.