First of all, congratulations to Baylor quarterback Robert Griffin on winning the Heisman Trophy. His win certainly sends a message that the award truly goes to the best player in college football and not the player representing the best team—a great accomplishment for a young man like him.
Even though the NFL season isn't over yet, the draftniks are abuzz. Many people believe the hapless Indianapolis Colts will take Stanford's Andrew Luck first overall. Luck has been mentioned as a top pick since last year and it wouldn't come as a surprise if he is taken. After all, the man has thrown 67 touchdowns over the past two years.
But with Griffin's win, it leads people to question whether he is better than Luck. He had almost 4000 passing yards in addition to 36 touchdowns. Griffin piloted the Bears to wins over ranked teams like TCU, Oklahoma and Texas—and piloted them to a berth in the Alamo Bowl against Washington.
Sure, Andrew Luck brought Stanford to their second BCS bowl in as many seasons and sure, he won more games this year than Griffin, but the question remains: Will he be holding a Colts jersey at Radio City or will it be Griffin?
My belief is that Griffin, while he did win the Heisman, will not go higher than Luck. Sure, Griffin is a dual threat quarterback, much like Cam Newton and Denard Robinson, and sure, he can be a star, but it all comes down to a matter of consistency.
Luck has the same amount of service time under his belt as Griffin, but in his three years, he has led Stanford to two BCS bowls. Luck also is a traditional quarterback, something the Colts have always used. He appears to be ready to handle the NFL, as mentioned by former NFL legend Archie Manning and that's something the Colts will need in order to bounce back.
Griffin, on the other hand, is a good player as well, at least in the one season that we had to evaluate him, but the fact that he played at Baylor is going to hurt him.
Griffin, however, comes into the NFL possessing the same skill type as last years Heisman winner Cam Newton and there are plenty of teams who will want to draft a quarterback like that. He'll be a first round talent—maybe even a top-10 pick—but not the first overall pick.
Things may change, however, in the coming months. Griffin may deliver an outstanding performance in the Alamo Bowl while Luck falters in the Fiesta Bowl. Griffin may also have a great Combine while Luck does horribly in everything but the Wonderlic exam.
If anything different should happen, there may be a slight chance that Griffin overtakes Luck and becomes the new hot commodity.