The Dallas Cowboys have an opportunity to win their fifth straight NFL game over the 4-7 Arizona Cardinals this Sunday. Many signs point to a win, but there are certainly plenty of good reasons why the Cowboys need to be concerned about this game. 

The Cardinals have been playing better football lately. They have an offense with the potential to be very balanced in the way they attack the Cowboys.

The Cardinals have Beanie Wells, who is the eighth most productive running back in the league. They also have a very strong combination of receivers in Larry Fitzgerald and Early Doucet. Add that to the fact the Cowboys' defense have had two sub-par games against the Washington Redskins and Miami Dolphins.  It is apparent that the Arizona Cardinals could very well beat a Dallas Cowboys team, which rolls out another mediocre defensive performance. 

Stop the Run

The first order of NFL business is to stop Beanie Wells. He went off for 228 yards against the hapless St. Louis Rams last week.

I watched that game, and the St. Louis Rams' run defense looks no better than it did when DeMarco Murray ran for 256 against them. Still it takes a special running back to go over 200 yards against any NFL team, and Wells is just that. 

The Cardinals like to run the ball up the middle with Beanie Wells. The website  FootballOutsiders.com tells us that the Cardinals have run 36 percent of the time up the middle, 24 percent of the time off of left tackle, and 21 percent of the time off right tackle. They only run nine percent off of left end and 10 percent off of right end. 

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Dallas is third in the league in run defense in the middle, 10th in the league defending against right tackle runs. But, they are a dreadful 31st in the league against left tackle runs.The runs off left tackle go directly at Kenyon Coleman, the Cowboys right defensive end.

Coleman will need to step up his game. The Cowboys will need to make sure he has help.

The middle line-backers will need to explode into the gaps to take on Wells early and often. 

Attack a Hobbled Kolb

Slowing down Doucet and Fitzgerald must begin with the Cowboys getting consistent pressure on Kevin Kolb. There is a good chance that he will be less mobile than normal. Given that he is recovering from turf toe. This injury has kept him out for four games. It seems unlikely that he would come back with 100 percent of his speed and agility. 

The Dallas Cowboys have struggled in the last two games in pass coverage.  In one part because they have missed Mike Jenkins. The other part because their pass rush has disappeared for long stretches. 

The good news for the Cowboys is that they had 10 days to prepare and rest up for this game. DeMarcus Ware is currently leading the league in sacks, but only by half a sack. 

Ware isn’t the kind of player that cares more about personal statistics than team wins. However, the sack record is important to him. He will have all the motivation in the world to get after Kolb—especially since getting sacks helps both causes. If Anthony Spencer can get pressure from his side and Jay Ratliff can collapse the pocket occasionally, then the Cowboys' suspect secondary will have an excellent chance of limiting Fitzgerald and Doucet. Mike Jenkins appears to be on track to play this Sunday. His absence has coincided with the defense’s struggles against the pass. His presence could go a long way toward helping not only the secondary, but also the defensive front line—by giving them an extra second to close in on Kolb.

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Kolb has a quarterback rating of 77.8.  This puts him in the vicinity of Rex Grossman, who has a 73.6, and Tarvaris Jackson, who has a 72.8. Kolb has thrown eight touchdown (TD) passes and eight interceptions this year. 

Kolb is sacked every nine times he attempts a pass. That is a terrible ratio. By comparison, Tony Romo is sacked once every 19 times he attempts a pass.

Kolb throws an interception for every 28 pass attempts.

What these numbers indicate, is that if the Cowboys shut down the running game and force Kolb to attempt 28 or more passes in the game, then he is likely to throw at least one interception. He will have been sacked three times. Even if the Cowboys are only playing like an average pass-defense team. If Kolb has to attempt 36 passes, then he is likely to be sacked four times. He is a bit more likely to throw that second pick. That's if the Cowboys play like an average pass rushing and pass defending team.In fact, the Cowboys lead the league in sacking the quarterback in away games. They are eighth in the league in interceptions. 

All of this analysis backs up the traditional refrain you hear from coaches every week: “We need to shut down the run. Make them one dimensional. Pressure the quarterback." As long as the Cowboys succeed in doing this, they will have a relatively easy time limiting the Arizona Cardinals' offense severely.

Kolb is an interesting young quarterback. However, he is light years from the talent level of a Tom Brady or Aaron Rodgers. Without a strong running attack he would need that level of talent; to put up the points needed to outscore the Dallas Cowboys' offense. 

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Attack a Suspect Secondary

Based upon what the Cardinal's secondary has done this year, there is ample reason to believe that the Cowboys receivers will have a strong outing in Glendale, Arizona.

Here is a short list of receivers the Cardinals have faced together with the production they had versus the Cards: Hakeem Nicks                     10/162

Mike Wallace                        3/118

Steve Smith                          8/178

Michael Crabtree                  7/120

Anquan Boldin                      7/145

Victor Cruz                            6/98

The only time this season that the Cardinals have faced a team with a top ten quarterback, and two receivers in the top 40 they gave up a combined 260 yards.

The Cardinals have yet to face a team this season with a top five quarterback, two top 40 receivers, and a running back that leads the league in yards and yards per carry over the last five games. The Cowboys are that team. Add that to the fact the Cowboys also feature the third ranked tight end in the league.

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When assessing how the Cardinals secondary has done against quality tight ends, this list may be helpful:Fred Davis                           6/ 86 yards

 

Greg Olsen                          4/ 78 yards

Vernon Davis                        5/67 yards

Some special notes: Fred Davis plays for the Washington Redskins, which have had poor quarterback play this year. Greg Olsen plays for the Carolina Panthers, which have rookie Cam Newton. Vernon Davis plays for the San Francisco 49ers, which have Alex Smith who is having a career year. However, he is still 12 spots south of Romo in yards, and four spots south of Romo in terms of QB rating.

The point is that when trying to predict Jason Witten’s contribution on Sunday, we need to bear in mind that the three tight ends I listed obtained those numbers against the Cardinals. Despite the limitations I just mentioned.

With Witten, a third ranked tight end catching passes from Romo, a fourth ranked quarterback, against a defense that must worry about all the other weapons mentioned above. I think it's reasonable to expect that Witten will have a very good day.Here are my conservative projections for Cowboys receivers; including Witten, given the record the Cardinals secondary has posted this season against notable receiving targets:

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Dez Bryant                            5/130

Laurent Robinson                   8/150

Jason Witten                         7/95

Add the contributions to the passing game from other receivers, backs totaling 55 yards, and we arrive at 430 yards passing.

 

Does this seem too optimistic? Rookie Cam Newton, in his first NFL game, put up 422 yards passing on the  Cardinals. I think it's realistic to assume that Tony Romo, a top five quarterback with a top three tight end, and two dangerous receivers can accomplish this.

Run for Conversions and TD's

Next, lets look at the running game for the Dallas Cowboys versus the Arizona Cardinals rushing defense.

The Cardinals rank 20th versus the run. Where they really struggle though, is in giving up rushing first downs and rushing touch downs. The Cardinals are the fourth worst in the league in allowing rushing first downs, and fifth worst in allowing rushing touchdowns.This is especially significant because the Cowboys struggled earlier in the year in the red zone. In fact, the Cowboys’ problems with running the ball in the first half of the season had them ranked last in red zone scoring.

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They have since improved in this area dramatically. The addition of DeMarco Murray as the starting running back, as well as Romo’s connections with Laurent Robinson.

That said, most Cowboys fans are still likely to be on edge when the Dallas Cowboys get a first and goal. They will be wondering if they are going to revert to their earlier ineptitude in this part of the field.

So, the fact that the Arizona Cardinals are one of the worst teams in the NFL in defending against the run in the red zone is an enormous benefit to the Cowboys.

 

The Cowboys will once again be without the services of Tony Fiametta, who is their starting fullback. I do not anticipate a record day running the ball. I do think its reasonable to predict that Murray will rush for somewhere in the vicinity of 120 against this Cardinals' defense. I am guessing that Felix Jones will be worked in some more this week, and should pick up 30 or more yards as well.

This brings us to a total offensive output of roughly 572 yards. This seems highly unlikely. The Carolina Panthers had an enormous offensive output against the Cardinals, and their total was 477 yards.Despite the fact that I can find very little in my research to indicate that the Cardinals can actually stop any of the Cowboys' top play makers, I will cut my offensive yards estimate by 70. I can say that Dallas will come up with just over 500 yards of offense on Sunday.

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Next, lets look at points.

Net points is a very under-utilized stat in game previews and predictions. Yet, I believe it tells you a great deal about a team. Especially this far into the season.

For example, the Cowboys played the Miami Dolphins on Thanksgiving Day. Many were disappointed in how much of a struggle it was for the Cowboys to win. When we look at their net points on the year they are a plus six. That is very high for a 3-8 team.

In contrast, look at the Jacksonville Jaguars. They are also 3- 8, yet they have negative 62 net points. Clearly, there is a big difference in how those two teams have played this year. Despite their identical records.

So where are the Arizona Cardinals in net points? They sit at negative 43.

 

What that tells us is that they are not just a 4-7 team. They are a very bad 4-7 team. Half of their wins have come against the St. Louis Rams, which are 2-9.

They have losses to the Minnesota Vikings, Seattle Seahawks and Washington Redskins. They have given up 400 yards of offense on four occasions. Also, they have lost by double digits three times this year already.Establish Your Dominance

This game will tell us a great deal about the Cowboys chances this year as a playoff team.  As long as the Dallas Cowboys take care of business and win this decisively, they will continue to build confidence and momentum going into the playoffs.

Both the Pittsburgh Steelers and the San Francisco 49ers have beaten the Cardinals by double digits. Even the struggling Minnesota Vikings beat them by 24 points. The Cowboys need to notch a double digit win here. Show the league, but more importantly themselves that they are a dominant team to be reckoned with.

Cowboys 40    Arizona 14