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NFL Picks Week 13: Favorites Sure to Cover the Spread

Danny PaskasSenior Analyst INovember 28, 2011

NFL Picks Week 13: Favorites Sure to Cover the Spread

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    In Week 12 of the NFL, seven favorites were able to cover the spread.

    The Green Bay Packers and the New England Patriots continued their offensive assault on the league while easily covering.

    The Pittsburgh Steelers and the Cincinnati Bengals were pushed in their games against the Kansas City Chiefs and the Cleveland Browns, both inferior teams that were able to keep the line closer than a lot of people expected.

    Both the Steelers and Bengals failed to cover.

    Week 13 has just five favorites giving a TD or more.

    While I believe the Indianapolis Colts getting 21 points is a bit much, even against the Patriots, these five favorites are sure to cover the spread.

    Home teams are in CAPS.

Philadelphia Eagles -3 over SEATTLE SEAHAWKS

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    After their embarrassing 18-point loss to the New England Patriots, which left them 4-7 with bleak playoff hopes, it is time for the Philadelphia Eagles' pride to step in.

    Whether Vince Young or Michael Vick is behind Philly's center, the Eagles are still a superior team to the 4-7 Seattle Seahawks.

    With fans calling for Andy Reid's job, finishing the season over .500 may be enough of a reason to keep them quiet for a while.

    With the Seattle Seahawks ranking 21st in the league against the pass, the Eagles should be able to take advantage.

Why Eagles Won't Cover

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    Marshawn Lynch has won games for the Seattle Seahawks almost single-handedly in the past. The game that comes to mind for me is last season's playoffs when Lynch had the 67-yard TD run against the highly favored New Orleans Saints.

    In his last game, Lynch ran for over 111 yards and had a catch for a TD.

    The Philadelphia Eagles give up 110 rushing yards per game. If Lynch has one of his big games, the Seahawks have a chance to win. 

PITTSBURGH STEELERS -7 over Cincinnati Bengals

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    With the Pittsburgh Steelers showing almost nothing on offense Sunday night in Kansas City, I would expect them to take it out on division rival Cincinnati Bengals when they make their way back home.

    The Steelers have only scored less than 20 this season in three games, their lowest output was 13 in their last game.

    In the last matchup between the Steelers and Bengals, Pittsburgh scored 24, with their offense gaining a total of 328 yards and three TDs.

    The Steelers need this game to keep pace with the Baltimore Ravens and have only one loss at home.

Why Steelers Won't Cover

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    The last meeting between the Cincinnati Bengals was a close one. It was only a seven-point game that a lot of people argued could have ended differently if not for a questionable pass interference call.

    One big factor in this game is the health of Troy Polamalu, who may be out with a head injury.

    Without Polamalu, a former defensive player of the year, the Steelers record suffers. 

New York Jets -3 over WASHINGTON REDSKINS

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    The New York Jets need this game to keep their playoff hopes alive.

    With the Washington Redskins down to their third-string running back and with their top WR Santonio Moss just getting back from a broken hand, the Jets' defense should be able to dominate.

    Rex Grossman has thrown 11 interceptions in his last five games. The Jets rank fifth in the league with 13 interceptions.

    Because of Washington's 31st ranking rush offense, Grossman is forced to take chances; when this happens, New York will cash in.

Why Jets Won't Cover

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    Even though the Washington Redskins are next to last in the league in rushing, in their last game, against the Seattle Seahawks, they were able to gain over 100 yards on the ground.

    If Washington can have a consistent running game against the New York Jets, it can limit Rex Grossman's mistakes, possibly making for a closer game than expected.

Dallas Cowboys -4.5 over ARIZONA CARDINALS

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    The Dallas Cowboys are on a four-game winning streak after blowing out the Buffalo Bills and squeaking out victories against the Washington Redskins and the Miami Dolphins on Thanksgiving.

    It's time for a typical breakout game against a sub-par Arizona Cardinals team.

    The Cardinals' defense is weak against the pass, ranking 27th in the league, and against the run, ranking 21st in the league.

    With DeMarco Murray running strong along with Tony Romo and his plethora of weapons, Dallas will cover the 4.5 spread easily.

Why Cowboys Won't Cover

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    Although the Arizona Cardinals are a bad team, they play strong at home. In Week 4, they only lost by four to the New York Giants.

    For the Cardinals to keep the game close, they have to cause turnovers and get Patrick Peterson going in the return game.

    Peterson already has a record four returns for TDs on the season.

    Also, if Beanie Wells can have a repeat performance from his last game, where he rushed for 228 yards, the Cards can keep Romo off the field and limit scoring.

San Diego Chargers -2.5 over JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS

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    The San Diego Chargers have lost six in a row. Are they really this bad? I refuse to think so.

    They have the league's fifth best passing game behind Philip Rivers and Vincent Jackson and have a decent rushing game behind Ryan Matthews and Mike Tolbert.

    The Jacksonville Jaguars meanwhile are struggling choosing a QB with their rookie Blaine Gabbert getting pulled because he could not produce last game.

    The Chargers offense is better than a field goal against the Jaguars.

Why Chargers Won't Cover

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    Although the Jacksonville Jaguars are just 3-8, their defense ranks fourth in the league.

    The Jaguars' problem is they can't score, or gain yards on offense. They rank dead-last in the league in yards per game.

    If the Jaguars are to keep this game close, it's going to be on their defense and the turnovers they can produce.

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