Can I interest you in some offense?
Two of the highest-scoring teams in the nation will be getting together this week when the Texas Tech Red Raiders meet the 18th-ranked Baylor Bears.
Robert Griffin III has emerged as one of the leading candidates to win the Heisman and can cap off an incredible junior season with a gaudy stat line. Here’s everything you need to know about a game featuring the only two teams to defeat No. 9 Oklahoma on the season.
Where: Cowboys Stadium, Arlington, Texas
When: Saturday November 26th at 7:00 p.m. ET
Spread: Texas Tech 5-6 (2-6) vs. Baylor 7-3 (4-3) -13
The 13 points seems high until you remember how many points are going to be put up in this shootout. Yet with the up-and-down nature of the Red Raiders, I wouldn’t be shocked to see them pull off the win outright, or lose by 30.
Tech QB Seth Doege is completing almost 70 percent of his passes and has racked up 3,644 yards and 25 TDs in the process. He is going to be hampered though without running back DeAndre Washington, guard Lonnie Edwards and receiver Alex Torres who all left last week’s loss against Missouri with knee injuries.
Assuming Washington can’t go, expect Doege to up his FBS-leading 525 passing attempts by a wide margin.
Baylor has to keep up the pressure and make Doege squirm in the pocket.
Key Trends
Red Raiders are 6-0-1 ATS in their last seven meetings in Baylor.
Red Raiders are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 meetings.
Red Raiders are 46-20-1 ATS in their last 67 games following a S.U. loss.
O/U: 78
The point total is guaranteed to go over the 50-point hurdle…but 78? That means a 40-37 final wouldn’t cut it.
Will TTU-BU Go Over 78 Total Points?
There are way too many factors that can go wrong for me to feel comfortable taking that jumbo-sized spread.
Key Trends
Under is 5-2 in the last seven meetings.
Under is 9-4 in Red Raiders' last 13 games as an underdog.
BCS/ Top 25 Implications
Everything is on the line for 18th-ranked Baylor. With no Big 12 championship, this will be the last game of the regular season for the Bears to make their case to the computers.
With a win, they will jump up at least two spots depending on who else loses in front of them. A loss would be devastating. They would be saddled with four L’s and be on the brink of dropping out of the Top 25.
Tech can gain bowl eligibility with a win, but won’t be thinking about the Top 25 anytime soon.
Key Matchup: Robert Griffin III vs. Texas Tech defense
He's sixth in the nation in passing yards (3,572), second in passer rating (191.7) and tied for fourth in passing TDs (33), all while completing 72.9 percent of his throws with just five interceptions. Defenses also have to be aware of his ability to run the ball, which have carried him to 550 rushing yards and five more TDs.
In short, this guy does it all. He is going to shred a Texas Tech defense that is the sixth worst in the nation, allowing over 36.8 points per game.
If the Red Raiders can get some pressure on Griffin III, they may be able to force some bad throws that result in interceptions.
That’s the only way they can hang around and keep it close into the fourth quarter.
Prediction
Baylor is on a mission and it’s hard to imagine a situation where Griffin III doesn’t have at least 300 yards. But it’s hard to take the plunge on a 13-point spread knowing that the Red Raiders beat the Bears 45-38 in ‘10 and have won 10 in a row in the series.
The Bears will win and snap Tech’s bowl-game streak at 11, but it’s going to be closer than most expect.
No. 18 Baylor 38 Texas Tech 28
