Bowl Projections: Week 12 Analysis and Predictions for All the Top Bowl Games

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As it stands today, LSU will be facing Alabama for the national championship. The two teams faced off already this season with LSU coming away with a 9-6 win in overtime.

There really should be no reason why the outcome will be any different for the rematch.

The biggest thing to consider is that the first game was played in Tuscaloosa in front of over 100,000 screaming Alabama fans. If that is not going to rattle a team, nothing will.

The Tigers have come out expecting to win every game on their schedule and they have done just that this season. With the national championship on the line, there will be no doubt that the team will be focused and ready for Alabama’s best shot for a second time.

The other thing to remember is Les Miles’ record in bowl games. During his time in Baton Rouge he has only lost one bowl game and that was in the 2009 Capital One Bowl which had the worst field conditions of any game in recent history.

The game between these two schools was certainly close the last time they played but should they meet in the national title, LSU will once again be victorious.

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Now that the regular season is done for almost conference, we can more accurately predict what teams will be going to the BCS Bowls. That said, it is still up in the air as to who will go where. The only thing we know for certain is that the Pac-12 and SEC will be sending two teams to the BCS.

Stanford is ranked fourth and doesn’t play another game until the bowl so it will definitely get a spot as will the winner of Oregon-UCLA. The SEC has teams in the top two spots and it is widely assumed that a rematch between LSU and Alabama will take place.

All of the other spots are really up for grabs. The Big East, ACC, Big Ten and Big 12 champions will get to go but none of those games are set in stone. Should Oklahoma lose to Oklahoma State, the Sooners would likely fall out of contention for a BCS Bowl but Kansas State could replace them because it is ranked 11th.

Virginia Tech could receive an at-large bid if it loses to Clemson but no college football analysts see that happening. What they do see happening, though, is Michigan sneaking in and getting a spot. It would have to be ranked in the Top 14 which it currently is not but that could change following the Big Ten Championship and a Georgia loss.

Speaking of Georgia, the SEC could get three teams in the BCS if Alabama and LSU are still ranked first and second following a Tiger loss to the Bulldogs who would then go to the Sugar Bowl.

The other major players in this will be Houston and TCU. Houston would receive an automatic bid should it beat Southern Miss and TCU would get that automatic bid if the Cougars lose and the Horned Frogs move into the Top 16.

It’s wild and crazy but the BCS wouldn’t allow anything different.

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Virginia Tech

The Hokies have drastically improved on offense while maintaining their stalwart defense even though three of the starting defensive front seven have gone down to injury this season. Florida State gashed Virginia last weekend for some big running plays outside the tackles and that is where David Wilson is his most dangerous.

The biggest problem for this team has been handling big defensive lines and the Cavaliers don’t have a particularly large one. Tech should come out victorious over its in-state rival which is ranked in the AP and Coaches’ Polls and possibly move up a spot in the rankings because of it. It would likely secure the team an at-large bid to a BCS Bowl.

Michigan

The only way this team can play in a BCS Bowl is if it receives an at-large bid which means it has to be in the Top 14 nationally. Most experts have the Wolverines playing in the Sugar Bowl which means that they’ll have beaten Ohio State this weekend.

Last year the Buckeyes got the better of Denard Robinson and company but this year’s defense is much improved. If that happens again, Michigan will be stuck in a lesser bowl but a win will be enough to get them a trip likely to the Sugar Bowl.

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If the national championship game were played tomorrow LSU would once again be playing Alabama even though the two teams squared off in Tuscaloosa with the Tigers coming out victorious.

Many people don’t think it is fair for them to have to beat the same team twice without it being in the conference championship but at this point it seems like the only real destination for both of these teams.

No. 3 Arkansas has not played well on the road at all this season and it will have to beat LSU in Baton Rouge on Friday. Alabama has to beat No. 24 Auburn on the road but the Tide have the best defense in the country, ranking first in every major statistical category. It is unlikely that either of these teams will be upset.

Then you have to look at what the other teams are doing in the Top 6. Stanford doesn’t have nearly the strength of schedule to jump into the second spot so it is out of the running. Virginia Tech can still get two quality wins over Virginia and Clemson if it wins out but it won’t be enough to take Alabama out of it.

The only real chance is for Oklahoma State to soundly beat Oklahoma but that hasn’t happened since 2002 but even then the Cowboys are still .11 behind Alabama in the standings and they only can play one more game. Maybe if the game was this weekend and they could play another team on December 3rd things would be different but it looks like Alabama and LSU will be playing again no matter what people say.

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Houston

The Cougars have yet to play a team this season with more than seven wins and have only played two teams with defenses not in the bottom third of the country. All of that is about to change in the next two weeks with games against Tulsa and presumably Southern Miss in the Conference USA Championship game.

Considering that both of those games are away from home and that they only beat their best opponent, Louisiana Tech, by one point on the road, odds are they will lose at least one of those games.

Michigan

Many people now have Michigan in as an at-large big to a BCS Bowl because of their national appeal and traveling fan base. But the Wolverines still have to get by Ohio State and that will not be easy.

The Buckeyes had Denard Robinson’s number last year and their offense has drastically improved with the return of running back Dan Herron. The game may be in the Big House but they should come out victorious and knock Michigan out of a BCS Bowl.

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1. LSU – 95%

There is an extremely small chance that the Tigers both lose to Arkansas this weekend and then drop to third or lower in the BCS which would then knock them out of a BCS Bowl.

2. Alabama – 98%

Beat Auburn and this team will be playing in the national championship. Lose and the Tide probably go to the Sugar Bowl though an Arkansas win would keep them out entirely in that case.

3. Arkansas – 10%

Beat LSU and the Hogs are in the BCS

4. Oklahoma State – 100%

The computers are in love with Oklahoma State and even a loss to No. 9 Oklahoma won’t change that. A BCS Bowl will be taking the Cowboys.

5. Virginia Tech – 80%

Winning the next two games is not easy but the Hokies can definitely do it. But there is a strong possibility that a loss in either game could still get them to a BCS Bowl based on how well their fans travel.

6. Stanford – 75%

Beat Notre Dame and the Cardinal is into the BCS.

7. Boise State – 5%

The odds of a BCS Bowl taking a one-loss Boise team are slim to none.

8. Houston – 40%

If the Cougars win out, they’ll automatically be in a BCS Bowl but they have yet to play teams as good as Tulsa and Southern Miss this season.

9. Oklahoma – 50%

Beat Oklahoma State and the Sooners win the Big 12 and automatically get a spot but it would be hard for a three loss team to get into the BCS based on how things stand right now.

10. Oregon – 85%

Beat Oregon State and either Arizona State, UCLA or Utah at home and this team plays at the Rose Bowl.

11. Kansas State – 0%

There are no situations that allow the Wildcats to play for a BCS Bowl this year. Oklahoma would go ahead of them.

12. South Carolina – 0%

The BCS Bowl spots for the SEC come down to LSU, Alabama, Arkansas and Georgia and no one else.

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LSU, Alabama, Oklahoma State, Oregon, Wisconsin – In

All three of first teams still have to play teams in the Top 25 but Alabama is much better than Auburn and home field advantage propels Oklahoma State to a win over Oklahoma. Even losses for them would still be enough for an at-large bid. There’s no way Arkansas beats LSU on the road.

Oregon just has to beat Oregon State and Arizona State, UCLA or Utah to reach the Rose Bowl. That should be well within reach for the Ducks.

Wisconsin’s only losses are on the road on Hail Mary plays, they’ll win the Big Ten.

Michigan State, Arkansas, Georgia, Boise State, Kansas State, Houston  – Out

Most people will agree that the first five teams on this list are effectively out of the BCS. Wisconsin will get revenge on Michigan State in the Big Ten Championship, the two SEC teams can’t compete on LSU’s level, Boise won’t win the Mountain West so it’s out and Kansas State won’t get an at-large bid because of their small fan base.

Houston is in the same boat, though. The Cougars have not played a team with eight wins this season and only three of their opponents are over .500. With a road trip to 8-3 Tulsa this week and a Conference USA title game with 9-2 Southern Miss, don’t expect them to get by unscathed. That would take them out of consideration for the BCS.

Stanford, Virginia Tech, Oklahoma, Michigan, Clemson, the Big East

Stanford has an underappreciated game against No. 22 Notre Dame and the Irish have a very real chance of pulling the upset if they can hold on to the football. If Virginia Tech beats Virginia which it should then the Hokies would also likely get an at-large bid.

Oklahoma needs to beat Oklahoma State to get an at-large bid and Michigan needs to beat Ohio State which is not a given by any means. Clemson still has a shot to win the ACC if they actually feel like playing and the Big East is one gigantic mess.

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Capital One Bowl: Arkansas vs. Michigan

There is a very small chance that three SEC teams would make it into BCS bowls but that situation does not include Arkansas. The Razorbacks will likely finish the season with just two losses to the top two teams in the country and would be the obvious choice for the Capital One Bowl.

Most people have Michigan getting into the BCS as an at-large but following a loss to Ohio State, it won’t get one.

Cotton Bowl: Kansas State vs. Georgia

Historically the Cotton Bowl has taken a SEC West team but there will be a big enough discrepancy between the Bulldogs and Auburn so that the bowl reaches out east. Kansas State is the obvious choice for the Big 12’s first non-BCS bowl.

Chick-Fil-A Bowl: Clemson vs. Auburn

These two teams already met this season with Clemson winning but the game could be make for an interesting rematch considering that it has lost two of three.

Outback Bowl: Nebraska vs. South Carolina

Michigan State could certainly take this spot but if it loses to Northwestern like I think it will this weekend, forget about it. Nebraska may take this spot anyway because its fans are famous for traveling really well.

South Carolina is the obvious choice from the SEC.

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Tennessee – With a win on Saturday at Kentucky, the Volunteers will become bowl eligible but this is just not a good football team. Their best win is against Cincinnati and they escaped Vanderbilt in overtime last weekend.

Tyler Bray is an excellent quarterback but he did not look the same as he did before injuring his thumb against the Commodores, barely completing 50 percent of his throws for less than 200 yards and had two interceptions to boot.

If any other team with Tennessee’s record said they deserved to be bowling, you would laugh.

Texas – The Longhorns failed to get to a bowl last year and this year should be no different. They have absolutely no quality wins—three of their six wins come against teams with a winning record including a one point victory over 8-3 BYU who has two more wins than the next best team.

The only reason this team is ranked is because of their namesake and because the computers think the Big 12 is one of the best conferences in the country. With road games coming up against Texas A&M and Baylor, don’t be shocked if Texas goes down to 6-6.

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No. 3 Arkansas vs. No. 1 LSU – Any time the first and third highest ranked teams in the country square off it has major BCS Bowl implications. Obviously.

No. 2 Alabama vs. No. 24 Auburn – For the people who don’t want to see a rematch in the national championship game, the most important outcome of the day will be without a doubt Alabama-Auburn. A loss in the Iron Bowl would give the Tide two losses and drop them out of the national title race giving way for Arkansas, Oklahoma State, Virginia Tech and Stanford to make a move.

No. 5 Virginia Tech vs. Virginia – The Cavaliers are ranked in all of the voters’ polls and the winner of the Commonwealth Cup will represent the Coastal division in the ACC Championship game. The Hokies could also get an at-large bid to the BCS if they lose this game.

No. 22 Notre Dame vs. No. 6 Stanford – Stanford’s national title hopes are dim at best but it is hoping to receive an at-large bid this year. The only way they realistically do that is with a win over Notre Dame because the fans are not known for traveling well to bowl games.

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The BCS picture isn't clear enough yet but there are some teams that we know for sure will be in a BCS bowl. With a lot of football left that still has to be played, here are the teams we know for sure. 

LSU Tigers

The Tigers are in the best position of any team in the country. They could lose a game and still likely reach the National Championship. Even if they end up losing two games (which is highly unlikely) they will probably end up making the Sugar Bowl. Regardless of what happens with LSU they will be in a BCS bowl when it's all said and done.

Oklahoma State

The Cowboys may have lost to Iowa State but they will be ready for the Oklahoma Sooners this weekend. The winner of that game will likely reach the Fiesta Bowl and right now you have to go with the Cowboys. The Sooners looked terrible against Baylor and it's pretty obvious injuries to two key offensive players are starting to catch up to them. Struggles on offense aren't good when you have to play the Cowboys. 

Stanford

Stanford will likely finish the year with only one loss and even if they don't end up winning the Pac-12, they'll at least get an at large bid. Andrew Luck and the Cardinal are almost impossible to deny as they will draw huge ratings. You could possibly see this team in the Fiesta Bowl which would be a fantastic matchup.

Randy Chambers is a B/R Featured Columnist that covers College Football and the NFL. You can contact him @Randy_Chambers or Randy.Chambers7@yahoo.com

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For all you gamblers out there, it's time to decide who you think will win the National Championship and which team gives you the most bang for your buck. Here are teams that still have a chance and the team you should bet on. The lines are from here.

LSU Tigers -150

The Tigers are the overwhelming favorite because they're pretty much the only team that's almost guaranteed to make it to the big game. LSU could lose a game and probably still make it to the National Championship. The Tigers have beaten several ranked teams this year and have truly proved that they are the top team in the country. It's also kind of hard to bet against that defense.

Alabama Crimson Tide +150

All Alabama has to do is beat the Auburn Tigers this weekend and they'll likely get their rematch against LSU in the National Championship. Alabama played the Tigers extremely close and probably would have won if they could make field goals. This line gives you the most for your money because you're betting on a great team that will likely make it to the big game. Besides, Nick Saban can't lose to the same team twice in a season, can he?

Arkansas Razorbacks +2000

If you're feeling like being a risk taker this is the line for you. The only possible way Arkansas can make the National Championship is if they win out and Auburn looses to Auburn this weekend. Of course anything could happen but you'll have to be very lucky for this line to hit because you're asking for a bit much.

Randy Chambers is a B/R Featured Columnist that covers College Football and the NFL. You can contact him @Randy_Chambers or Randy.Chambers7@yahoo.com

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Although Week 12 of the college football season was a little crazy, there are still several games that have to be played to set up the BCS games. Here are a few predictions. 

Arkansas vs LSU

This game takes place Thursday and of course it's a big game that involves two of the Top 3 teams in the country. If LSU wins, they'll be on their way to play Georgia in the SEC Championship, if Arkansas wins, then things get even more interesting. You have to like the Tigers in a close game, they have the defense to shut the Razorbacks down. LSU has also been battle tested and hasn't given me a reason to pick against them yet. Tigers win.

Alabama vs Auburn

I know Auburn isn't the same team they were last season but they will play a big part in who reaches the National Championship. If the Tigers are able to pull off an amazing upset, the door would be opened up once again and possibly the Razorbacks would take Alabama's spot. Not only is this a rivalry game but there are some BCS implications on the line here. Overall you have to go with the better overall team and that's Alabama.

Virginia Tech vs Virginia

How about those Cavaliers? Believe it or not they still have a shot at the ACC title and the winner of this game will come out of the Coastal division and play Clemson. The Hokies are hitting their stride at the right time but they still play sloppy and let teams stay around much longer than they should. I'll go with the more disciplined team in Virginia as they continue to find ways to win.

Penn State vs Wisconsin

The winner of this game will win the Leaders division and likely take on Michigan State for the Big Ten title. Penn State really took it to Ohio State last week and forced a ton of turnovers winning in a hostile environment. The question is, can they do it again? Wisconsin is a solid team and has an offense that scores a lot of points. I'm not sure the Nittany Lions will be able to keep up with them and that's why I'm going with the Badgers.

Randy Chambers is a B/R Featured Columnist that covers College Football and the NFL. You can contact him @Randy_Chambers or Randy.Chambers7@yahoo.com

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After a crazy Week 12 and the BCS Rankings looking completely different this week, the National Championship picture isn't any clearer. Here are the three most likely scenarios.

LSU vs Alabama

This scenario includes LSU and Alabama both winning out. The Crimson Tide would beat Auburn next week and LSU would beat Arkansas next week and Georgia in the SEC Championship game. These are the Top 2 teams in the country and they both control their own destiny. This would be the easiest and least complicated scenario out of the all. But if we've ever scene college football before, we know nothing is easy.

LSU vs Alabama

Same matchup, I know, but this one involves LSU losing to either Arkansas or Georgia in the SEC Championship. The Tigers resume is so impressive that they could likely afford a loss and still reach the National Championship game. If the Tigers lose to Arkansas do they really drop out of the Top 2 or if they lose to Georgia, they will still be good. Alabama would of course get their rematch because they beat Auburn this weekend.

Arkansas vs LSU

This is probably the least unlikely scenario but it's still possible. This one involves LSU losing to Arkansas and the Razorbacks winning the SEC. As well as Alabama losing to Auburn this weekend. This is probably the only way that the Razorbacks could reach the National Championship is if they win out and Alabama looses.

Randy Chambers is a B/R Featured Columnist that covers College Football and the NFL. You can contact him @Randy_Chambers or Randy.Chambers7@yahoo.com