2012 BCS Championship Game logo2012 BCS Championship Game

The Voice of the BCS Is Chanting, 'S-E-C...1-2-3!'

No. 1 LSU versus No. 3 Arkansas
No. 1 LSU versus No. 3 ArkansasChris Graythen/Getty Images
Daxton LyonContributor IINovember 20, 2011

What does it feel like to be a fan of a team in a conference other than the SEC?

A very disturbing reality for every non-SEC fan may soon come to pass. The Southeastern Conference may have to beat itself in the national championship game (NCG) to dethrone itself from a perfect BCS NCG record.

No other team in any other conference has the poise to sustain itself week in and week out for an entire season to challenge the SEC for the opportunity to make it into the BCS NCG.

From here on out, if at least two non-SEC teams lose no more than one game (the BCS rankings reflect LSU, Alabama, and Arkansas as the top three teams in the country), then the NCG contenders will be determined by the outcome of two SEC games next week.

Every scenario for who will end up in the BCS NCG can be derived from the following:

1)  If Alabama beats Auburn and LSU beats Arkansas, then Alabama will be in the NCG.

a)  Then, if LSU beats Georgia in the SEC championship game, it will be LSU versus Alabama in the NCG.

b)  However, if Georgia beats LSU, it will be Alabama versus a non-SEC opponent in the NCG.

2)  If Alabama beats Auburn and Arkansas beats LSU, then Arkansas will be in the NCG.

a)  Then, if Alabama beats Georgia in the SEC championship game, it will be Arkansas versus Alabama in the NCG.

No. 2 Alabama versus No. ? Auburn
No. 2 Alabama versus No. ? AuburnKevin C. Cox/Getty Images

b)  However, if Georgia beats Alabama, it will be Arkansas versus a non-SEC opponent in the NCG.

3)  If Alabama loses to Auburn and LSU beats Arkansas, then there is no guarantee that there will be an SEC team in the NCG.

a)  Then, if LSU beats Georgia in the SEC championship game, it will be LSU versus a non-SEC opponent in the NCG.

b)  However, if Georgia beats LSU, it may be non-SEC versus non-SEC in the NCG. (*Note: based on the conditions of the existing BCS records, this assumption could be wrong, and LSU could still go to the BCS NCG if they only fall one spot to No. 2.)

4)  If Alabama loses to Auburn and Arkansas beats LSU, then LSU will be in the NCG.

a)  Then, if Arkansas beats Georgia in the SEC championship game, it will be Arkansas versus LSU in the NCG.

b)  However, if Georgia beats Arkansas, it will be LSU versus a non-SEC opponent in the NCG.

Therefore, the prospects for the BCS NCG include a matchup between one of the following:

  1. LSU versus Alabama
  2. Alabama versus non-SEC opponent
  3. Arkansas versus Alabama
  4. Arkansas versus non-SEC opponent
  5. LSU versus non-SEC opponent
  6. Non-SEC Opponent versus non-SEC opponent
  7. Arkansas versus LSU
  8. LSU versus non-SEC opponent

Based on the assumptions listed above and assuming that the probability of each outcome is the same, then:

  1. There is a 87.5 percent chance that the NCG will include at least one SEC team.
  2. There is a 37.5 percent chance that the NCG will include two SEC teams.
  3. There is a 12.5 percent chance that the NCG will not include a SEC team at all.

This is the reality of the 2011-2012 college football season.  Whether or not you are an SEC fan, you may only have one conference to root for on January 9, 2012.

*Note: SEC Haters beware: yell at your own teams and conferences for losing so many times and to the opponents that your teams have lost to, because the top three teams in the SEC are just focused on doing one thing right—WINNING!!!

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