I could really get in trouble here for being a Notre Dame hater, but I don't think Notre Dame is going to be an elite program for at least three years.

Let me first clarify exactly what I mean by "elite." I'm not talking about history or tradition, I'm not talking about top-10 recruiting classes, and I'm not talking about the ability to generate national press. Notre Dame can lay claim to all of those things. When I say "elite" I mean having a team that is consistently ranked in the Top 10 and regularly competing for a spot in a BCS bowl.

There are a couple different reasons why I don't think Notre Dame is that close to being a legitimate BCS contender, but the biggest one is that the Irish don't belong to a BCS automatic qualifying conference. I know, I know, I know. "But we're Notre Dame, we don't need to be part of an automatic qualifying conference!" I'm sorry, but this is simply not true. Let me tell you why.

The landscape of college football has changed, and there is a huge amount of importance placed on being part of a strong conference. I think that remaining independent severely handicaps Notre Dame's chances of reaching a BCS bowl or playing for a National Championship.

The second reason why I'm not optimistic about Notre Dame becoming elite within the next three or four years is because the Irish just aren't that good. Sure, they have talent, but they don't play up to that talent level on a consistent basis.

How many 10-win seasons does Notre Dame have since Lou Holtz left in 1996? Two (2002, 2006). How many BCS bowls has Notre Dame played in since 1998? Three (2002, 2006, 2007). When was the last time Notre Dame won a BCS bowl? Never. Notre Dame has lost all three of its BCS bowl games by a combined score of 116-43.

The bottom line is that eight or nine wins isn't good enough for a BCS bowl berth, and the Irish haven't had a one-loss or undefeated season since 1993. The last time Notre Dame won a National Championship was in 1988. That's 10 years before the BCS was created.

I might be a hater, but I just don't see Notre Dame getting much better than it is right now. I'd be absolutely shocked if Notre Dame plays in a BCS bowl before 2015.