The Backdoor Cover: Week 11 NFL Picks
40 pieces of tupperware for nine dollars? Sign me up. Panini maker half price? Done. Surround sound system 30% off? Already in line for it.
Getting the deals is a competitive experience. Last year I literally raced to the back of a Toys’R'Us to beat a woman for a Chuck, My Talking Truck toy. It’s important my son knows that Daddy is a winner on Black Fridays. However, as times change and plans shift for Thanksgiving, it isn’t always feasible to be in an area with tons of store options.
This year I’m looking into the online route. Does Cyber Monday have the same deals as Black Friday? Is it always on the Monday that follows Thanksgiving? Do they only have a few of each option in stock? I’m not sure how it works but I’ve got a week or so to figure it out. If you are an expert, feel free to help me out.
This week is sponsored by my dislike of Twilight. I know it’s cliche to bash on it because it’s been done ad nauseum, but every time a new installment is released I’m reminded of the ridiculous fanaticism. I held on on Harry Potter for awhile but once I watched those movies, the story was fantastic and I could see why it was so popular. Same with Lord of the Rings and even the Narnia movies. I was thinking the same thing with Twilight but after watching the first one, it might have been one of the top ten worst movies I’ve ever seen. Story was predictable, acting was awkward and wooden and the way the movie was shot reminded me of the Blair Witch project. Therefore, I hope Blade shows up in the latest film and ends it for the good of humanity.
Getting out the picks earlier this week to accommodate the Thursday game. Been feeling good about lines the past few weeks and we’ve either pushed or won each time. This week is no exception as I feel comfortable predicting at least 5 wins this week. You can go ahead and pad your Black Friday fund on these plays.
DENVER +6 vs NY Jets – Two trains of thought on this one. 1.) Flukey Tiny Tim was shut down against the only decent defense he has played this year (DET) and the Jets will do the same and blow the Broncos out. 2.) The Jets really aren’t that good and Denver will be able to move the ball enough and their Defense is good enough to stop the Jets, making the six points an easy cover. Obviously I’m leaning towards the second option. Over 3 out of 4 bets placed so far are on the Jets so obviously no one believes the Fightin’ Tebows are for real.
ST. LOUIS -1 vs Seattle – Another head-scratcher upon first glance. Seattle just got a big home win against the Ravens and also have an impressive road win versus the Giants earlier this year. This game sets up nicely for backers of the Rams and trends/situational/angles blah blah blah. Remember, no one ever took down a casino doing the easy bet. (no idea how that sentence applies to betting on the Rams)
MINNESOTA +1 vs Oakland – See game above. This feels like a game the Vikings will pull out as Carson Palmer comes back down to reality after playing the clearly clueless Chiefs.
CLEVELAND – 1 vs Jacksonville – A lot of small lines this week, this one happens to be between terrible teams. Jacksonville just got a road win against the Colts and don’t see Blaine Gabbert winning two straight road games. Cleveland is much tougher than Indianapolis and believe it will show in a tight Browns victory.
CAROLINA +7 @ Detroit – Carolina has a truly terrible defense but in a dome, I like the offensive weapons of the Panthers to keep it within a touchdown. Stafford hasn’t looked right the past few weeks and the Lions lack the running game to exploit the Panther’s wet-tissue defense. When taking the underdog, I’m always down for backing a team that has the ability to score late which keeps the Backdoor alive.
MIAMI -1 vs Buffalo – I’ve been fading Buffalo with great success the past few weeks and see no reason to stop now. Miami has the defense and running game to pull out an ugly win here. On a fantasy note, it would be super-awesome if Daniel Thomas busted out this week with a good game. Reggie Bush is a joke.
BALTIMORE -7 vs Cincinnati – Yea, a big favorite! Pound your chests and yell at no one in particular! I’ve went against the Bengals last week and still think they are overrated based upon their easy early schedule. The NFL’s bi-polar poster child, Ravens, should do like the Steelers last week and cover vs their divisional foe. The Ravens have the ability to put up huge numbers but they have to keep Ray Rice involved. I see this being a 30-13 type of game.
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