The Indianapolis Colts need to lose five of their last seven games to assure themselves the No. 1 overall pick.
Considering that they've gone 10 straight games without a win, already gives us good reason to believe they are not winning two games this year.
Even if they do, the chances of one of the three other teams with two wins—St. Louis, Carolina and Miami—losing out is unlikely as well.
Essentially, the Colts do not need luck to land Andrew Luck; they just need to be themselves.
Here is an updated look at the first round of the 2012 NFL Draft beyond the "Suck for Luck" race.
(Complete updated mock at the bottom)
No. 2: St. Louis Rams
The Rams eased their need for a top-flight receiver when they traded for Brandon Lloyd, but this team would be foolish to trust him.
The veteran has flashed his talent multiple times throughout his career, but has never consistently played at a high level. He's also 30 years old and no spring chicken by any means.
St. Louis missed out on the opportunity to draft a top target in last year's draft and wound up with Greg Salas and Austin Pettis. They're both solid complimentary receivers, but this year's top receiver is on another level.
Justin Blackmon has helped the Oklahoma State Cowboys become a legitimate contender for the BCS National Championship Game. His playmaking skills are undeniable and he's easily the best receiver in this draft.
The Rams would be downright moronic in passing on him.
No. 4: Miami Dolphins
This pick will come down to Matt Barkley versus Landry Jones.
A lot of evaluators have moved the Oklahoma Sooner QB ahead of the USC Trojan, but I think the Dolphins will ultimately fall in line with Barkley.
The decision will hinge on who the new coach will be though.
Although they're almost out of the Andrew Luck race, this is one of the more fascinating teams in next year's draft.
No. 5: Jacksonville Jaguars
Alshon Jeffery hasn't had the type of year evaluators wanted to see from him. He lacks consistency and a steady quarterback and that never bodes well for production.
He's dropped down some boards and that is understandable.
But come workout time, Jeffery is the type of specimen that teams will fall in love with. He isn't a speed demon, but he can dominate a game with his size, overall athleticism and hands.
The Jaguars are missing exactly that. If they want rookie quarterback Blaine Gabbert to succeed, they need to find him a more dominant weapon than Mike Thomas, Jason Hill or Mike Sims-Walker.
They could also go with Michael Floyd of Notre Dame, although some would consider that a reach.
No. 7: Cleveland Browns
This is the first of two picks for the Browns after they allowed the Falcons to move ahead of them for Julio Jones last year.
Do the Browns need to draft a replacement for Colt McCoy?
A top wide receiver like the Jeffery would be an option, but he is off the board. Floyd would be the next best, but they could wait and add a receiver later in the first round with their second pick.
The running back position has become a huge problem for them. Injuries have forced them to start Chris Ogbonnaya and Peyton Hillis is likely on his way out of Cleveland.
That makes Trent Richardson, who is also the best player on the board, a no-brainer pick.
Unless, of course, they're hunting for a quarterback to replace Colt McCoy (I don't think they will though).
*Draft order determined by combination of current record and projected finish.
|No.||Team (Record)||Player, Pos.|
|1.||Indianapolis Colts (0-10)||Andrew Luck, QB|
|2.||St. Louis Rams (2-7)||Justin Blackmon, WR|
|3.||Carolina Panthers (2-7)||Quinton Coples, DE|
|4.||Miami Dolphins (2-7)||Matt Barkley, QB|
|5.||Jacksonville Jaguars (3-6)||Alshon Jeffery, WR
|6.||Arizona Cardinals (3-6)||Matt Kalil, OT|
|7.||Cleveland Browns (3-6)||Trent Richardson, RB|
|8.||Minnesota Vikings (2-7)||Jonathan Martin, OT|
|9.||Washington Redskins (3-6)||Landry Jones, QB|
|10.||Seattle Seahawks (3-6)||Morris Claiborne, CB|
|11.||Philadelphia Eagles (3-6)||Brandon Thompson, DT|
|12.||Denver Broncos (4-5)||Michael Floyd, WR|
|13.||Kansas City Chiefs (4-5)||Courtney Upshaw, LB|
|14.||Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-5)||Alfonzo Dennard, CB|
|15.||Tennessee Titans (5-4)||Vontaze Burfict, LB|
|16.||Buffalo Bills (5-4)||Riley Reiff, OT|
|17.||Oakland Raiders (5-4)||Dre Kirkpatrick, CB|
|18.||Dallas Cowboys (5-4)||Janoris Jenkins, CB|
|19.||Detroit Lions (6-3)||Manti Te'o, LB|
|20.||Cincinnati Bengals (6-3)||David DeCastro, OG|
|21.||Cleveland Browns (via ATL) (5-4)||Luke Kuechly, LB|
|22.||San Diego Chargers (4-5) ||Nick Toon, WR|
|23.||Chicago Bears (6-3)||Cordy Glenn, OG|
|24.||New York Jets (5-4)||Alameda Ta'amu, DT|
|25.||Houston Texans (7-3)||Mark Barron, S|
|26.||Pittsburgh Steelers (7-3)||Dont'a Hightower, LB
|27.||New York Giants (6-3)||Zach Brown, LB|
|28.||New England (via Saints 7-3)||Chase Minnifield, CB|
|29.||Baltimore Ravens (7-3)||Michael Brewster, C|
|30.||San Francisco 49ers (8-1)||Jeff Fuller, WR|
|31.||New England Patriots (6-3)||Mohamed Sanu, WR|
|32.||Green Bay Packers (9-0)||Jarvis Jones, LB|