2011 NFL Week 11 Picks: Ravens over Bengals

Use your ← → (arrow) keys to browse more stories
2011 NFL Week 11 Picks: Ravens over Bengals
Larry French/Getty Images

Each Tuesday, WhatIfSports.com's NFL simulation engine will provide you with predictions, box scores and statistics for every NFL game that week. The NFL simulation engine generates detailed information including the home team's chances of winning (Home Win %), average score and comprehensive box score link. If you want to share your new found NFL knowledge with friends and family, make sure to check out our NFL Widgets on the WhatIf To Go page or click on the social networking share bar located at the top and bottom of the article.

The statistical inputs to the thousands of NFL games simulated are based on rigorous analysis of each team's roster, depth chart and statistically based player ranking. Roster modifications have been made for injuries and suspensions and those players are not part of their team's game simulation.

To account for injuries and roster moves announced late in the week, we will be re-simulating some games on Thursdays throughout the 2011 NFL season.

Check out our 2011 NFL Season-to-Date page to follow our accuracy week-to-week and find Locks and Upsets of the Week.

Game of the Week: Bengals at Ravens

The AFC North crown was projected to be a two-team race between the Pittsburgh Steelers and Baltimore Ravens. Part of this prophecy has come to fruition, as the Steel Curtain sits atop the division with a 7-3 record with the Purple Pain slightly behind at 6-3, although the Ravens have swept the season series.

However, a slight addendum is warranted, as a third party has thrown their name into the ring for postseason berth. The Cincinnati Bengals, forecast by many to finish in the cellar of the conference, have been the surprise of the first half of the season, entering Week 10 as the top dog in the AFC. A home loss to the rival Steelers left the Orange and Black at 6-3, but few outside of the Bengal clubhouse believed such a feat possible. The team travels to Baltimore in Week 11, with the contest between the divisional foes serving as the WhatIfSports.com Game of the Week.

Coming off a 4-12 campaign in 2010, the prognostication for Cincinnati's 2011 already looked murky before franchise quarterback Carson Palmer decided to retire rather than suit up in tiger stripes again. Another blow to the franchise was the departure of shutdown corner Johnathan Joseph thanks to owner Mike Brown's frugal ways. These developments, coupled with the sentiment of starting a rookie signal caller in Andy Dalton, seemed to prophesize doom for the Who-Deys.

Yet the effectiveness of Dalton and dominance of a mean defensive front ignited the Bengals to a five-game winning streak, setting the team up for a second-half crusade for the playoffs. Helping Dalton has been first-round selection A.J. Green, posting 41 receptions for 635 yards and six scores in just over eight games of action. And while he has yet to submit awe-inspiring numbers, Cedric Benson has been sound in the running game, rushing for 593 yards in eight outings.

However, the aforementioned front line of the defense is the foundation for the Bengals' success. To keep his players fresh, defensive coordinator Mike Zimmer has an eight-man rotation, wreaking havoc in the second half of games against tired and drained opposing offensive lines. This strategy has correlated to 25 sacks—third in the AFC—and nine recovered fumbles —second-most in the NFL.

The Ravens can appreciate Cincinnati's onus on defense, as the they have an impeccable and intimidating reputation of resistance. Bolstered by veterans Ray Lewis, Ed Reed, Terrell Suggs and Haloti Ngata, Baltimore is surrendering a meager 16.9 points per contest, second-best in the AFC.

Alas, the Ravens' fortunes will ultimately be determined by the play of quarterback Joe Flacco. That groan you just heard was the sigh of every Baltimore fan acknowledging that opinion.

At times, the product out of Delaware looks like one of the league's elite, illustrated by Flacco's four games of 300 or more yards this season, all which doubled as Baltimore victories. Yet in other contests, Flacco appears like a chicken running around with its' head severed. This erraticism has hampered the team from reaching the next level, exemplified by losses to weak opponents like Seattle and Jacksonville. If the Ravens harbor any hopes of making a run in January, Flacco will need to display some type of consistency and perseverance.

So who wins this clash of AFC North titans? According to the award-winning WhatIfSports.com simulation engine, the Ravens come out on top 76.1 percent of the time by an average score of 24-15. To check the rest of this week's predictions, see below:

NFL Week 11
Matchup Win % Avg Score
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 13.8 18 Boxscore
@ Green Bay Packers 86.2 30 Simulate Game
Kansas City Chiefs 21.2 17 Boxscore
@ New England Patriots 78.8 26 Simulate Game
Cincinnati Bengals 23.9 15 Boxscore
@ Baltimore Ravens 76.1 24 Simulate Game
Arizona Cardinals 25.3 16 Boxscore
@ San Francisco 49ers 74.7 24 Simulate Game
Tennessee Titans 36.2 20 Boxscore
@ Atlanta Falcons 63.8 24 Simulate Game
San Diego Chargers 39.9 21 Boxscore
@ Chicago Bears 60.1 24 Simulate Game
Carolina Panthers 40.9 22 Boxscore
@ Detroit Lions 59.1 25 Simulate Game
Seattle Seahawks 41.1 18 Boxscore
@ St. Louis Rams 58.9 22 Simulate Game
Philadelphia Eagles 45.7 23 Boxscore
@ New York Giants 54.3 24 Simulate Game
Jacksonville Jaguars 48.8 16 Boxscore
@ Cleveland Browns 51.2 17 Simulate Game
Oakland Raiders 51.0 23 Boxscore
@ Minnesota Vikings 49.0 22 Simulate Game
Buffalo Bills 60.3 24 Boxscore
@ Miami Dolphins 39.7 21 Simulate Game
Dallas Cowboys 75.1 26 Boxscore
@ Washington Redskins 24.9 18 Simulate Game
New York Jets 75.3 23 Boxscore
@ Denver Broncos 24.7 14 Simulate Game
Load More Stories
Baltimore Ravens

Subscribe Now

We will never share your email address

Thanks for signing up.