Green Bay Packers: Why Predicting a Loss Is Futile

Brent ArmstrongContributor INovember 16, 2011

Attempting to predict a Packers loss is harder than attempting to stop Aaron Rodgers.
Attempting to predict a Packers loss is harder than attempting to stop Aaron Rodgers.Jonathan Daniel/Getty Images

It's becoming increasingly difficult to find an article concerning the Green Bay Packers that doesn't make an attempt at predicting the end of their 15-game winning streak.

Of course, there is also talk of an undefeated season. In fact, I’ve even seen another prominent sports website that predicted the Packers would be the first team to win three Super Bowls in a row. Think about that. They are predicting the Packers will win a game 17 months from now! It’s equally as absurd as predicting when they will lose.

Before the season began, commentators and analysts thought the Saints would knock off the Packers in Week 1 because their offseason workouts gave them a competitive edge. Former Patriots linebacker Tedy Bruschi famously laughed at Donald Driver for continuing to bask in the Super Bowl XLV glory instead of organizing team activities, particularly while the Saints were gathering in huge numbers. The entire country saw how that worked out as the Packers never trailed, and Rodgers mocked Bruschi in a postgame press conference.

Around the time the Packers dismantled Atlanta and became 5-0, a lot of people jumped on the Chargers to be the team that could knock them off. The Packers would be on the road, halfway across the country, playing a team that could go blow-for-blow with their offense. It made sense...until they stepped on the field. The difference in the game was that Phillip Rivers makes mistakes and right now, Aaron Rodgers doesn’t.

All season long I’ve been hearing about how tough it will be for the Packers to travel to Detroit on Thanksgiving Day and then to New York to face the Giants the next Sunday. Those games have been the most popular choices for a Packers loss for nearly the entire season, which is exactly why it won’t happen. Let me show you why…

This is a list of the records of the teams that handed the NFL’s last unbeaten team their first loss dating back to the 2000 season: 3-4, 3-2, 0-5, 4-5, 6-1, 8-5, 5-4, 13-6 (’07 Super Bowl), 7-3, 7-7 and 2-2.

This list tells us that not including the '07 Super Bowl, the teams that knocked off the last unbeaten were a combined 45-38. They were rarely the team you would predict to knock them off. And in ’07, it took the biggest underdog in Super Bowl history to knock off the unbeaten Patriots. Again, it is rarely the team you would predict. Some team may end up beating the Packers, but it won't be because they ran into a team that was better than they were, it will be because they play in the NFL and all teams have off weeks. Stop guessing.