NFL Week 10 Picks: Games That Will Be Closer Than the Spread

Josh Schoch@JoshSchochAnalyst IIINovember 12, 2011

PHILADELPHIA, PA - NOVEMBER 07:  Kurt Coleman #42 of the Philadelphia Eagles reacts during the fourth quarter of the game against the Chicago Bears at Lincoln Financial Field on November 7, 2011 in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania.  (Photo by Nick Laham/Getty Images)
Nick Laham/Getty Images

If you're looking for a quick buck in Week 10 of the NFL season, there's money to be made from betting on these games.  These spreads are a bit ridiculous, and the games are guaranteed to be closer than what so-called experts say.

I'm not sure where they got these numbers but I'm not complaining, as this is an easy way to make money.


Buffalo Bills at Dallas Cowboys

The spread in this game is Dallas by six as the Bills come to town.  This is pretty optimistic as the Cowboys are 4-4 and rely heavily on Tony Romo's passing ability.

The Bills have the ability to shut down Romo, as they hold the keys to his failure.  If Romo is pressured he usually makes mistakes.  The Bills can get pressure on opposing quarterbacks, and they lead the league in interceptions.  If the Bills can alter Romo's throws they can stop Dallas through the air.

However, the will not be able to stop the ground game, as athletic running backs like DeMarco Murray can tear them apart.  The rookie is in for a big day as he takes on the Bills, and he gives the Cowboys an edge.

I still think Dallas will win, but I think Fred Jackson and Ryan Fitzpatrick keep it closer than the spread.  After all, the Bills have lost by more than three only once (last week against the Jets), and the Cowboys have won by more three only twice, both games coming against terrible teams.

Giants quarterback Eli Manning in second half action as the New York Giants defeated the San Francisco 49ers by a score of 24 to 6 at Monster Park, San Francisco, California, November 6, 2005. (Photo by Robert B. Stanton/NFLPhotoLibrary)
Robert B. Stanton/Getty Images


New York Giants at San Francisco 49ers

The San Francisco 49ers are 7-1 under new coach Jim Harbaugh, and are favored by four in this game against the Giants.

The 49ers have the best run defense in the NFL and the sixth-best running game as well.  However, they struggle through the air both offensively and defensively.  The Giants have done well behind Eli Manning, who has cut down on his interceptions, and he is due for a good game against San Fran.

The Giants are sixth-best in passing, and they will use that to their advantage against the 49ers.

San Francisco hasn't beaten many good teams, with their only notable wins coming against Cincinnati and Detroit.  They have not faced a team quite as good as the Giants, and this is going to be a very close game.

I'm not going to guarantee a win for either team, but I will say that this game will not be decided by more than two or three points.


Arizona Cardinals at Philadelphia Eagles

The Eagles are favored by a ridiculous 14 points against the Cardinals.  Fourteen points?!  Are you kidding?

Yes the Eagles are a good team because of the best running game in the NFL, but the Cardinals' strength comes by stopping the run.

The Eagles also have an absolutely pathetic run defense, and that will hurt them as the Cards can run the ball.

The Eagles are going to win this game, possibly by double-digits, but not by more than 14 points.  That's absolutely insane.