Week 10 NFL Quick Picks
My picks record this season is 88-39, including a 9-5 showing last Sunday in Week 9.
There are some great games this week, such as New Orleans versus Atlanta, New England versus New York and Detroit versus Chicago. We also have border-line playoff teams Buffalo and Dallas facing off, and both need a win to keep their playoff hopes alive.
Who will win? Read on to find out.
Oakland @ San Diego
Heading into Week 7, Oakland was 4-2. They also had Jason Campbell. Fast forward to Week 10, and the 4-4 Raiders are reeling. They lost to the Chiefs 28-0 in Week 7, and 38-24 to the one woeful Broncos in Week 9. Carson Palmer has thrown six interceptions in his two games with the team, and star running back Darren McFadden is likely to miss the game.
San Diego is coming off a tough loss to undefeated Green Bay. After throwing two early interceptions, Philip Rivers rebounded to bring the Chargers back into the game before falling short 45-38. They may overrated as they have yet to beat a team with a winning record, but they are at home and have more than enough talent to win this one.
The Pick: San Diego
Arizona @ Philadelphia
The Eagles lost again on Monday night to the Chicago Bears. To me, that just means the Eagles will play with a sense of urgency this Sunday. They are now 3-5 and need to win at least seven of their last eight to make the playoffs.
Also, the Eagles have only lost to teams who now have winning records this season. Every team with a below .500 or .500 record (at this time) who has faced the Eagles has lost.
Arizona is a sub .500 team on the road. Expect Vick, McCoy and the rest of the Eagles to be too much for the Cardinals to handle.
Tennessee @ Carolina
As much as I love Cam Newton, I don't like Carolina. They are currently 2-6 with losses to teams such as the Vikings and the Cardinals. They did give Green Bay, Chicago and New Orleans close games, but the Panthers have not been able finish out those close games.
Tennessee is 4-4 and in the division race. They sit 1.5 games with a game against division-leading Houston in Week 17, so they are in no way out of playoff contention. As such, this game will probably mean more to the Titans than the Panthers. Tennessee gave 6-2 Cincinnati a close game on Sunday, and I expect them to get the win this Sunday.
The Pick: Tennessee
Houston @ Tampa Bay
Tampa Bay is 4-4 so far this year. Their up-and-down season can be partially contributed to a tough schedule, but they have been even more inconsistent than is to be expected. They actually have a -49 point differential, which is worse than the Cardinals, Panthers and Vikings. Those three teams are all 2-6. The Bucs even have a worse point differential than the Dolphins who just got their first win last week.
On the other hand, Houston has the best point differential in the AFC. They sit at 6-3, and have given up less points in nine games than Tampa has in eight. The Texans run game is insanely good. Arian Foster is obvious name, but Ben Tate has been spectacular on a per-carry basis behind that monster offensive line in Houston.
The Pick: Houston
Washington @ Miami
I don't like picking this game. Both of these teams are bad. They even both start backup quarterbacks.
I'll go with the Hall of Fame coach and better defense here. But, I'm not too confident.
The Pick: Washington
Jacksonville @ Indianapolis
Indianapolis does not want to win a single game this year. They want the No. 1 pick in the draft and the chance to draft Stanford QB Andrew Luck. Either that, or they really suck. Either way, I'm not picking them.
I don't love the Jaguars. They have a weak offense. In fact, they have the worst offense in the NFL, as they have the least points scored and the least touchdowns of any team in the league. However, their defense is giving up 15 less points per game than the Indianapolis defense. I expect a low scoring game here.
The Pick: Jacksonville
Denver @ Kansas City
The Chiefs were blown out by the formerly winless Dolphins in Week 9.
The Broncos are 2-1 since No. 15 became the starting quarterback.
You gotta love that T-BOW!
The Pick: Denver
Buffalo @ Dallas
I'm not too excited about either of these teams. Buffalo is coming off a bad loss to an above average team, the New York Jets. The Cowboys are coming off an uninspiring win against a below average team, the Seattle Seahawks.
I guess Dallas has a little more momentum than the Bills coming into this game. Additionally, the 'Boys are at home. The home team wins approximately 60 percent of the time in the NFL.
I liked Buffalo before last week, but now I'm not so sure. Part of me wants to say Buffalo will win this week, and that the only reason they lost to the Jets was because they got down early and had to throw it instead of being able to turn Fred Jackson loose. Tough call here...
The Pick: Buffalo
New Orleans @ Atlanta
The Saints are the favorite on Sunday. They have the better record and the better point differential. But New Orleans is 2-3 on the road this season. They lost to the Rams just two weeks ago. They lost to the Bucs on the road earlier this year, and the Falcons are a much better team than the Bucs.
Atlanta is kind of hot right now. They have won three straight games, including a marquee matchup with the Detroit Lions.
I just can't pick them though. I think the Saints offense is just too good for Atlanta to handle. The loss to the Rams was a wake-up call that they needed, and I expect them to perform up to their capability on Sunday.
If both teams played their best game, the Saints would win. I just can't pick against them this week.
The Pick: New Orleans
St. Louis @ Cleveland
Neither of these teams is good. I don't like picking these games.
Cleveland is terrible against the run, and Steven Jackson is probably the best player on either team. The Rams will likely feed him the ball all game, and it should pay off.
The Pick: St. Louis
Pittsburgh @ Cincinnati
The Bengals (6-3) have a better record than the Steelers (6-2). Cincinnati also has a better point differential. They even have both scored more points per game and given up less points per game than Pittsburgh.
However, the Bengals have yet to beat a high quality team. The only top team they have played, the 49ers, beat them by five points in Week 3. Cincinnati's best win was over a borderline playoff team, Buffalo.
Pittsburgh just got swept by the Ravens. They should come out with urgency and anger. The Steelers defense did a great job against Tom Brady, so they should be able to stop Andy Dalton. In the game against San Francisco, Dalton had just 157 yards, no touchdowns and two interceptions. I have to see him beat a top defense before I pick him to do it.
The Pick: Pittsburgh
Baltimore @ Seattle
This is a boring pick. Baltimore is very good. Seattle is bad. Obvious choice here.
The Pick: Baltimore
New York @ San Francisco
The Giants are coming off a huge win at New England last week. They are now 6-3.
However, the 49ers are a better team. They are 7-1 with a point differential of plus 88. The Giants have a point differential of plus 14.
San Francisco will try to control the clock with its strong run game and defense. This is likely to happen, as the Giants struggle against the run. Frank Gore should have a terrific game.
The Pick: San Francisco
Detroit @ Chicago
Everyone is riding high with Chicago, but I'm not sold on them. They have a point differential of just 26, while the Lions have a point differential of 92, which is the second highest in the NFL.
To put it another way, Detroit has scored 39 more points and allowed 27 less points than the Bears through eight games for both teams.
The Pick: Detroit
New England @ New York Jets
As a New England fan, I admit that I cannot pick this game objectively.
I know these two things to be facts which my being a fan does not skew:
1. Bill Belichick is one of the most highly regarded coaches in the league.
2. The Patriots have not lost three games in a row since 2002.
On top of that, Brady is a much better quarterback than he was in 2002. I know the defense is struggling, but I trust Belichick to have his team ready to play, and win.
The Pick: New England
Minnesota @ Green Bay
I know that the Green Bay defense did not play well last week. Yes, they picked off three passes, but they still managed to give up 38 points. I also know that the Vikings only lost to the Packers by six when they played earlier this year.
None of that information comes close to making me pick against the Pack. I will not pick against this undefeated team until they play another top 5 team in the league, and even then I will probably still pick Green Bay.
The Pick: Green Bay