NFL Picks Week 10: Stone Cold Locks You Can Take to the Bank
Finally, we're back to 16 NFL games again.
But only for this week. Next week finishes out the bye weeks for the season, but that shouldn't stop us from being excited for Week 10.
One of the 16 games happens to be the start of the Thursday night football for the 2011 season; NFL junkies, rejoice.
Three different days now feature at least one NFL game for the remainder of the season.
With that all in mind, there are some damn good spreads to get down on.
Here are a few stone cold locks you should get excited about.
Raiders (+7) at Chargers
This game may look ugly on paper, but it has some exciting trends rolling for the Raiders.
Oakland hasn't lost against the spread in a game versus the Chargers in their last four outings. That includes twice on the road.
The Raiders are also 11-4 in their last 15 games against division opponents.
This team has a lot going on with it, including injury concerns at the running back position, but the Chargers cannot seem to get out of their own way.
Laying seven points to a division rival is scary, especially one that has covered in each of the last four contests.
Redskins (+4) at Dolphins
This game is ugly and almost doesn't merit a play if not for the Dolphins playing at home.
Miami is an abysmal 5-14 at Sun Life Stadium in their last 19 games against the spread, including an 0-3 mark this year.
On top of that, the Dolphins are 0-5 against the spread in their last five attempts when favored between 3.5-9.5 points.
Washington certainly has problems, but to expect the Dolphins to win back-to-back games is absurd, let alone cover the spread.
Take the points, and run and hide until it is over.
Ravens (-7) at Seahawks
This one may seem a bit of a stretch, especially considering the distance Baltimore has to travel and Seattle's track record of playing tough at home, but the trends are not in their favor.
The Seahawks are one of those teams that can show up or completely implode.
In their last 16 games against teams with winning records, they are 4-12 against the spread.
To make matters worse, they're 1-8 against teams with a winning record in the second half of the season.
Baltimore meets all of the above criteria and is 6-2 against the spread in their last eight games in the second half of the season against a team with a losing record.
Ravens will cover on the road.
Packers (-13.5) vs. Vikings
13.5 points is a lot to lay for any team, even the defending the Super Bowl champion Green Bay Packers.
But take a gander at these numbers against the spread in the last three years:
22-9 on grass field (5-1 this year)
15-5 after two or more consecutive wins (5-1 this year)
12-4 against a team with a losing record (2-1 this year)
6-1 against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season
5-1 against the spread in Weeks 10-13
Oh yea, and the Vikings are starting a rookie quarterback on the road at Lambeau Field.
Dolphins vs. Redskins Under 37.5
These two teams average 32 points together on the season.
37.5 is a dangerously low number, but their defenses combine to give up just under 40 points per game as well.
The Dolphins erupted for 31 points last week on the road, but are notoriously terrible at home in every phase of the game.
The Redskins, on the other hand, scored their first touchdown in nearly eight quarters late in the fourth quarter last weekend.
Call it crazy, but we could see this game played between the 40-yard lines the entire game.