2011 College Football Week 11 Picks and Predictions: Stanford over Oregon

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2011 College Football Week 11 Picks and Predictions: Stanford over Oregon
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Each Monday, WhatIfSports.com's NCAA college football simulation engine will provide you with game predictions for every D-1 FBS game that upcoming week. The college football simulation engine generates detailed information for each game including each team's chances of winning (Win%) and the average points scored for both teams. Make sure to share the college football information you gained here with your friends by either checking out our NCAA football widgets on the WhatIf To Go page or clicking on the social networking share bar at the top and bottom of this article.

Check out our 2011 College Football Season-to-Date page to follow our accuracy and for Upsets of the Week available on Wednesdays.

The statistical inputs to the thousands of college football simulations are based on rigorous analysis of each team's roster, depth charts and statistically based player rankings. Roster modifications are made in cases of injury or suspension and those players are removed from their team's game simulation for that week.

Game of the Week: Oregon at Stanford

If you loved the No. 1 vs No. 2 showdown in Tuscaloosa last Saturday night, you'll absolutely hate the hyper-offensive matchup between Stanford and Oregon in Week 11. It took overtime for Alabama and LSU to combine for 15 points. Depending on two-point conversion decisions, the Cardinal and Ducks could knock that out in the first two offensive series.

Andrew Luck and company are currently third in the nation in scoring at 48.2 points per game. Darron Thomas, LaMichael James (now back from injury) and Kenjon Barner pace an offense fifth in scoring at 46.0 points per game. A season ago, the Ducks rallied to win 52-31, thanks in part to a 28-0 run to end the game.

For the moment, Stanford holds the better scoring defense, limiting the opposition to 16.6 points per game compared to the Ducks who have allowed 20.8 points per game.

Luck's notoriety has Stanford branded as a passing offense, but a closer look at their stats proves otherwise. They average 281 passing yards per game and 224 rushing yards. On the contrary, the Ducks are pretty one-dimensional and use their speed to move the pigskin down the field on the ground. They rank 78th in the nation in passing, but average nearly 300 yards on the ground per game, fifth in the country.

The Cardinal rank third in the country in rush defense and have allowed only 78.9 yards per game on the ground.

We simulated the Cardinal and Ducks 101 times and the simulation engine picks Stanford to win 63.4 percent of the time by an average score of 33-31.

TCU at Boise State

First place in the Mountain West Conference is on the line this Saturday in Boise. As they have in seasons past, the Broncos enter the game a perfect 8-0 with BCS National Championship aspirations on their minds. Despite Casey Pachell's best efforts, the Horned Frogs (7-2/4-0 MWC) are rebuilding following the departure of Andy Dalton to the NFL where he's led the Cincinnati Bengals to a 6-2 start to the season.

TCU currently ranks 70th in the nation in passing offense at 224 yards per game, but are solid in the ground game with a three-headed monster of Waymon James, Matthew Tucker and Ed Wesley. The trio has racked up better than 500 rushing yards apiece and has combined for 16 touchdowns.

Kellen Moore has continued a quiet bid to win the Heisman Trophy. As is always the case, a soft schedule has watered down his 2,229 passing yards and 29 touchdowns with only five interceptions. The Broncos remain one of the highest scoring offenses in the country at 43.9 points per game, currently seventh overall.

We simulated the Broncos and Horned Frogs 101 times and the simulation engine likes Boise State to win at home 78.2 percent of the time by an average score of 38-29.

College Football Week 11
Matchup Win% Avg Score  
Wake Forest Demon Deacons 27.7 22 Boxscore
@ Clemson Tigers 72.3 32  
Duke Blue Devils 32.2 24 Boxscore
@ Virginia Cavaliers 67.8 30  
Miami (FL) Hurricanes 35.6 25 Boxscore
@ Florida State Seminoles 64.4 29  
North Carolina State Wolfpack 53.0 24 Boxscore
@ Boston College Eagles 47.0 23  
Virginia Tech Hokies 60.4 24 Boxscore
@ Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets 39.6 21  
Pittsburgh Panthers 47.5 23 Boxscore
@ Louisville Cardinals 52.5 24  
South Florida Bulls 48.5 23 Boxscore
@ Syracuse Orange 51.5 24  
West Virginia Mountaineers 62.4 32 Boxscore
@ Cincinnati Bearcats 37.6 28  
Rice Owls 9.9 20 Boxscore
@ Northwestern Wildcats 90.1 34  
Michigan Wolverines 48.5 27 Boxscore
@ Illinois Fighting Illini 51.5 28  
Nebraska Cornhuskers 49.5 22 Boxscore
@ Penn State Nittany Lions 50.5 23  
Michigan State Spartans 68.3 28 Boxscore
@ Iowa Hawkeyes 31.7 22  
Ohio State Buckeyes 76.2 28 Boxscore
@ Purdue Boilermakers 23.8 16  
Wisconsin Badgers 95.0 42 Boxscore
@ Minnesota Golden Gophers 5.0 12  
Western Michigan Broncos 22.3 23 Boxscore
@ Toledo Rockets 77.7 33  
Miami (OH) RedHawks 30.7 19 Boxscore
@ Temple Owls 69.3 27  
Buffalo Bulls 61.9 23 Boxscore
@ Eastern Michigan Eagles 38.1 19  
Ohio Bobcats 67.3 28 Boxscore
@ Central Michigan Chippewas 32.7 22  
Northern Illinois Huskies 81.2 34 Boxscore
@ Bowling Green Falcons 18.8 23  
Kent State Golden Flashes 80.7 24 Boxscore
@ Akron Zips 19.3 14  
Washington Huskies 32.7 27 Boxscore
@ USC Trojans 67.3 33  
Oregon Ducks 36.6 31 Boxscore
@ Stanford Cardinal 63.4 33  
Oregon State Beavers 46.5 23 Boxscore
@ California Golden Bears 53.5 24  
UCLA Bruins 58.4 28 Boxscore
@ Utah Utes 41.6 25  
Arizona Wildcats 71.3 29 Boxscore
@ Colorado Buffaloes 28.7 23  
Arizona State Sun Devils 82.7 34 Boxscore
@ Washington State Cougars 17.3 22  
Western Kentucky Hilltoppers 5.0 11 Boxscore
@ LSU Tigers 95.0 43  
Auburn Tigers 24.8 24 Boxscore
@ Georgia Bulldogs 75.2 32  
Tennessee Volunteers 27.2 22 Boxscore
@ Arkansas Razorbacks 72.8 30  
Florida Gators 40.6 19 Boxscore
@ South Carolina Gamecocks 59.4 22  
Louisiana Tech Bulldogs 47.5 28 Boxscore
@ Mississippi Rebels 52.5 30  
Kentucky Wildcats 58.4 21 Boxscore
@ Vanderbilt Commodores 41.6 20  
Alabama Crimson Tide 82.7 31 Boxscore
@ Mississippi State Bulldogs 17.3 18  
San Jose State Spartans 49.5 26 Boxscore
@ Utah State Aggies 50.5 28  
Hawaii Warriors 67.3 35 Boxscore
@ Nevada Wolf Pack 32.7 30  
Fresno State Bulldogs 87.1 33 Boxscore
@ New Mexico State Aggies 12.9 18  
Idaho Vandals 16.8 17 Boxscore
@ Brigham Young Cougars 83.2 32  
Maryland Terrapins 17.8 18 Boxscore
@ Notre Dame Fighting Irish 82.2 30  
Rutgers Scarlet Knights 76.2 27 Boxscore
@ Army Black Knights 23.8 18  
Texas A&M Aggies 50.0 31 Boxscore
@ Kansas State Wildcats 50.0 30  
Texas Longhorns 51.0 25 Boxscore
@ Missouri Tigers 49.0 24  
Oklahoma State Cowboys 81.2 40 Boxscore
@ Texas Tech Red Raiders 18.8 29  
Baylor Bears 83.2 40 Boxscore
@ Kansas Jayhawks 16.8 26  
Marshall Thundering Herd 27.7 26 Boxscore
@ Tulsa Golden Hurricane 72.3 34  
UCF Knights 36.6 30 Boxscore
@ Southern Miss Golden Eagles 63.4 34  
Navy Midshipmen 43.1 26 Boxscore
@ Southern Methodist Mustangs 56.9 27  
East Carolina Pirates 81.2 34 Boxscore
@ UTEP Miners 18.8 23  
Houston Cougars 81.2 40 Boxscore
@ Tulane Green Wave 18.8 29  
UAB Blazers 82.2 29 Boxscore
@ Memphis Tigers 17.8 19  
TCU Horned Frogs 21.8 29 Boxscore
@ Boise State Broncos 78.2 38  
Wyoming Cowboys 38.6 20 Boxscore
@ Air Force Falcons 61.4 24  
UNLV Rebels 72.3 26 Boxscore
@ New Mexico Lobos 27.7 18  
San Diego State Aztecs 84.2 35 Boxscore
@ Colorado State Rams 15.8 20  
Florida Atlantic Owls 25.7 17 Boxscore
@ FIU Golden Panthers 74.3 27  
North Texas Mean Green 46.0 26 Boxscore
@ Troy Trojans 54.0 27  
Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders 53.5 25 Boxscore
@ Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks 46.5 24  
Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns 55.4 28 Boxscore
@ Arkansas State Red Wolves 44.6 27  
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