NFL Week 9 Picks: Against-the-Spread Betting Trend for Every Team
Betting trends are very useful in making NFL picks on a weekly basis when a sports handicapper is able to place a particular team in a powerful situation.
Las Vegas oddsmakers are certainly aware of simplistic trends such as a team's performance at home or on the road, potentially shading the number due to public awareness, but certain situations often get ignored when generating a line.
Let's take a look at one trend for each team that could lead to a profit when wagering on or against them this weekend.
The Seattle Seahawks are getting some action at the betting window, currently sitting as 11.5-point road underdogs against the Dallas Cowboys.
Smart money has the bankroll to play the Birds on the moneyline, something that the general public wouldn't dream in backing.
After all, professionals watched Seattle come away with a 36-25 win over the New York Giants as 10-point road underdogs on Oct. 9.
It's significant to watch if the betting odds remain above 10.5 at kickoff, as the team is 0-5 ATS as a road underdog of 10.5 or more points.
Dallas Cowboys quarterback Tony Romo just suffered a humiliating 34-7 defeat to the Philadelphia Eagles as three-point road underdogs.
He's probably still got a smile on his face knowing that the team will likely bounce back, with "America's Team" posting a 32-18 ATS mark when returning home off a road loss.
The Atlanta Falcons may get caught looking ahead at a division game against the New Orleans Saints in Week 10, but bettors shouldn't be scared off in laying the points.
Road favorites are a spectacular 17-4-1 ATS when playing a non-conference opponent off a week of rest during the regular season.
The "Suck for Luck" motto is alive and well in Indianapolis.
The Indianapolis Colts have been very close in losing their first three home games, dropping them by a combined 15 points.
With the schedule moving to Week 9, bettors will likely profit in backing winless teams until they score their first victory.
Such teams are 40-24-2 ATS in that situation.
New York Jets
Don't get blinded by Rex Ryan's 0-2 straight-up mark when coming off the bye, but he was dressed up in a favorite role in each defeat.
He is a money-making 8-1 ATS when getting four or fewer points since arriving in the Big Apple.
That's a tough trend to ignore when the Jets scored 38 points in both series victories a year ago.
The Buffalo Bills definitely gain an advantage in playing cold-weather games at home towards the back end of a season, displayed in the team's 9-1 ATS mark when favored in November against winning opposition.
It's important to note that Buffalo failed to cover its only chance as a home favorite of three points or fewer the last two-plus years.
A foreign situation come Sunday.
Just about every betting situation is frightful in trying to back the Cleveland Browns, coming into this week's contest with a 2-12-1 ATS mark in their last 15 games.
Nothing has gone right for this team against the number—something that has cost this handicapper a couple times this season.
The Houston Texans pushed last week vs. the betting odds, capturing a 24-14 win over the Jacksonville Jaguars as 10-point home favorites.
Oddsmakers have slapped a double-digit spread on them against this week, something that backers should stay away from.
The franchise has never scored a spread victory in the situation, posting an 0-2-1 ATS mark.
San Francisco 49ers
Bettors are wagering on the San Francisco 49ers like they've already won by two touchdowns this weekend over the Washington Redskins.
Jim Harbaugh has certainly turned things around in the Bay Area, but a potential slip up is in play Sunday.
He will be laying points for the first time as an NFL head coach, with a franchise that is 0-4 ATS in that particular role when not facing a division opponent.
The ultimate test of spread dominance comes in Week 9.
Washington Redskins head coach Mike Shanahan was shut out for the first time in his NFL head coaching career last week in a 23-0 loss to the Buffalo Bills as four-point neutral-site underdogs inside the Rogers Centre.
A situation that this handicapper loves.
I like it even more knowing that the public sees this franchise in a tailspin—dropping three consecutive games.
Shanahan has won 10 of 12 games when coming off back-to-back losses when his team enters a contest under .500.
Game on with the Redskins coming in with a 3-4 record.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Few teams are better on the road when getting points than the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, coming into their division showdown with the New Orleans Saints with an 8-1 ATS record in that situation.
Third-year head coach Raheem Morris has also registered straight-up underdog wins on the road in both games off a bye in his career.
New Orleans Saints
The New Orleans Saints are nine-point home favorites vs. the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, a number that many find as a trap to take the underdog.
Definitely think twice before laying the number due to the franchise being 19-45 ATS at home vs. division teams.
It gets even worse when favored by a touchdown or more—a money-burning 1-16 ATS in that situation.
The Miami Dolphins nearly scored their first win of the season last week before ultimately dropping a 20-17 decision to the New York Giants as 9.5-point road underdogs.
Bettors will likely shy away from betting this team, which could be a mistake this week, coming in with a 20-6 ATS record on the road when playing a team with a winning home record.
Kansas City Chiefs
Be extremely careful in climbing aboard the Kansas City Chiefs bandwagon this week, placed as favorites for the first time since a 41-7 home loss to the Buffalo Bills to open the season.
The team is also sandwiched in between divisional games and enters with a 3-10-1 ATS mark when laying points at home.
The Cincinnati Bengals are arguably the hottest team in the National Football League vs. the Las Vegas number, cashing in nine of their last 10 games.
It's also important to point out that the franchise is a perfect 8-0 ATS vs. AFC competition.
The Tennessee Titans are holding firm as field-goal favorites when hosting the Cincinnati Bengals Sunday, something that sharp bettors are going to watch closely.
In their last 26 chances when playing at home as favorites of three or fewer points, the Titans are 17-8-1 ATS in that situation.
The Denver Broncos are certainly underdogs with Tim Tebow under center, which could actually pay off against the Oakland Raiders this weekend.
In the last 11 meetings between these AFC West rivals, the underdog has grabbed the cash eight times.
Even though head coach Hue Jackson is in his first year, it's hard to ignore that the Oakland Raiders are 0-8 SU and ATS when coming off a bye week.
Carson Palmer better know that playbook.
New York Giants
The New York Giants will be facing a revenge-minded New England Patriots team due to a Super Bowl loss, but they still bring in a formidable 29-13 ATS mark on the road.
In their lone opportunity as a road underdog this year, New York captured a 29-16 win over the Philadelphia Eagles.
New England Patriots
The New England Patriots are not a team you want to face if their coming off a loss, posting a 25-9-1 ATS mark in the following contest.
It may be enough to buck the Patriots being 1-4 ATS in this series.
St. Louis Rams
Don't be surprised if the St. Louis Rams capture win No. 2 Sunday, but also respect the team's 9-1 ATS mark when coming off a straight-up victory as an underdog.
It fits nicely with the team covering six of its last seven tries as a road underdog of fewer than three points.
The Arizona Cardinals have been worse than everyone expected with quarterback Kevin Kolb in the desert, but the franchise has come away with the cash in seven of its last 10 tries as a home favorite of less than a field goal.
The favorite is also 6-1 ATS in the Cardinals-Rams series.
Green Bay Packers
The Green Bay Packers are 18-7-1 ATS when heading out on the road against a team that possesses a winning home record.
San Diego Chargers
The San Diego Chargers fall into a rather unfamiliar role in hosting the Green Bay Packers, but bettors will likely get paid in the end.
The franchise has won and covered its last five opportunities as a home underdog.
Problem is—it faces the best team in football Sunday.
The Baltimore Ravens know they will be facing an angry Pittsburgh Steelers side and bettors shouldn't get lost in the hype.
Monitor the betting odds up to kickoff, as the team is 1-4 ATS as a road underdog of 3.5 to 10 points.
As suggested in the previous slide, monitor the line closely for this AFC North matchup, as the Pittsburgh Steelers are 23-9 ATS as a home favorite of 3.5 to 10 points.
The Chicago Bears come in off the bye week, allowing them extra preparation time in facing the Philadelphia Eagles on Monday Night Football.
It may not matter with the team being 8-15 ATS when getting points in the prime-time event.
The betting odds are certainly inflated, but it's hard to ignore that the Philadelphia Eagles are 12-5 ATS when asked to lay points on Monday night.
Quarterback Michael Vick will look to give the franchise five consecutive spread victories when playing underneath the bright lights of ESPN's prime-time event.
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