2011 College Football Week 10 Picks and Predictions: Alabama over LSU

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2011 College Football Week 10 Picks and Predictions: Alabama over LSU
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Each Monday, WhatIfSports.com's NCAA college football simulation engine will provide you with game predictions for every D-1 FBS game that upcoming week. The college football simulation engine generates detailed information for each game including each team's chances of winning (Win%) and the average points scored for both teams. Make sure to share the college football information you gained here with your friends by either checking out our NCAA football widgets on the WhatIf To Go page or clicking on the social networking share bar at the top and bottom of this article.

Check out our 2011 College Football Season-to-Date page to follow our accuracy and for Upsets of the Week available on Wednesdays.

The statistical inputs to the thousands of college football simulations are based on rigorous analysis of each team's roster, depth charts and statistically based player rankings. Roster modifications are made in cases of injury or suspension and those players are removed from their team's game simulation for that week.

Game of the Week: LSU at Alabama

I actually covered a "Game of the Century" back on November 18, 2006. The top-ranked Ohio State Buckeyes hosted their enemy from up north, Michigan. The Wolverines, ranked second heading into the final week of the regular season, played the game a day after the death of iconic head coach Bo Schembechler.

The tension prior to kickoff was thick. The energy during the game was palpable. The celebration on the field after the game was euphoric for those sporting scarlet and grey attire.

I expect the same setting down in Tuscaloosa inside Bryant-Denny Stadium when No. 2 Alabama hosts No. 1 LSU Saturday night. Both teams enter Week 10 coming off a bye. The rest and relaxation must have been a welcomed treat as five days of constant media attention and 60 minutes of hell await them this week.

When it comes to statistically analyzing the matchup, offense takes a backseat to defense. The Crimson Tide possess the top scoring defense in the nation at 6.9 points allowed per game, while the Tigers are third at 11.5 papg. Now if history tells us anything, the final score of this game should be in the 20s or 30s.

Alabama is also first in the nation in total yards allowed per game at 180.5. The Tigers allow 251.4 yards per game. Alabama is first in rush defense, 44.9 yapg. and second in passing defense, 135.6 yapg. The Tigers are third in rush defense, 76.6 yapg, and 10th in pass defense 174.8 yapg, but have picked off more passes, 11, than the Tide (nine).

On offense, Alabama's Trent Richardson is a dark horse to win the Heisman Trophy. He's closing in on 1,000 rushing yards, is averaging 6.6 yards per rush and has scored 18 touchdowns (one receiving) on the season. LSU's Jarrett Lee has led an efficient offensive attack in place of Jordan Jefferson. He's thrown for over 1,200 yards with 13 touchdowns and only one interception.

Using our college football simulation engine, we simulated the Tide and Tigers 101 times and it's Alabama winning 61.4 percent of the time by an average score of 25-23.

College Football Week 10
Matchup Win% Avg Score  
Duke Blue Devils 20.8 24 Boxscore
@ Miami (FL) Hurricanes 79.2 33  
Virginia Cavaliers 57.4 25 Boxscore
@ Maryland Terrapins 42.6 23  
Notre Dame Fighting Irish 64.4 30 Boxscore
@ Wake Forest Demon Deacons 35.6 24  
North Carolina Tar Heels 68.3 26 Boxscore
@ North Carolina State Wolfpack 31.7 22  
Florida State Seminoles 76.7 30 Boxscore
@ Boston College Eagles 23.3 20  
Louisville Cardinals 30.7 20 Boxscore
@ West Virginia Mountaineers 69.3 29  
Cincinnati Bearcats 49.5 26 Boxscore
@ Pittsburgh Panthers 50.5 27  
Syracuse Orange 54.0 24 Boxscore
@ Connecticut Huskies 46.0 22  
South Florida Bulls 66.3 25 Boxscore
@ Rutgers Scarlet Knights 33.7 21  
Minnesota Golden Gophers 5.0 11 Boxscore
@ Michigan State Spartans 95.0 38  
Indiana Hoosiers 8.9 17 Boxscore
@ Ohio State Buckeyes 91.1 35  
Purdue Boilermakers 8.9 18 Boxscore
@ Wisconsin Badgers 91.1 37  
Northwestern Wildcats 29.7 16 Boxscore
@ Nebraska Cornhuskers 70.3 27  
Michigan Wolverines 47.5 27 Boxscore
@ Iowa Hawkeyes 52.5 28  
Akron Zips 15.8 17 Boxscore
@ Miami (OH) RedHawks 84.2 28  
Northern Illinois Huskies 48.5 31 Boxscore
@ Toledo Rockets 51.5 32  
Temple Owls 60.4 25 Boxscore
@ Ohio Bobcats 39.6 22  
Ball State Cardinals 60.4 25 Boxscore
@ Eastern Michigan Eagles 39.6 22  
Central Michigan Chippewas 60.4 23 Boxscore
@ Kent State Golden Flashes 39.6 21  
Washington State Cougars 35.6 22 Boxscore
@ California Golden Bears 64.4 29  
Utah Utes 40.6 24 Boxscore
@ Arizona Wildcats 59.4 27  
Arizona State Sun Devils 76.7 31 Boxscore
@ UCLA Bruins 23.3 21  
Oregon Ducks 82.2 35 Boxscore
@ Washington Huskies 17.8 23  
Stanford Cardinal 90.1 38 Boxscore
@ Oregon State Beavers 9.9 22  
USC Trojans 92.1 36 Boxscore
@ Colorado Buffaloes 7.9 20  
New Mexico State Aggies 5.0 10 Boxscore
@ Georgia Bulldogs 95.0 43  
Tennessee-Martin Skyhawks 5.0 8 Boxscore
@ Mississippi State Bulldogs 95.0 53  
Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders 18.8 16 Boxscore
@ Tennessee Volunteers 81.2 29  
Vanderbilt Commodores 22.8 17 Boxscore
@ Florida Gators 77.2 26  
South Carolina Gamecocks 34.7 24 Boxscore
@ Arkansas Razorbacks 65.3 31  
LSU Tigers 38.6 23 Boxscore
@ Alabama Crimson Tide 61.4 25  
Mississippi Rebels 44.6 23 Boxscore
@ Kentucky Wildcats 55.4 24  
Utah State Aggies 25.7 25 Boxscore
@ Hawaii Warriors 74.3 34  
Idaho Vandals 39.6 23 Boxscore
@ San Jose State Spartans 60.4 26  
Louisiana Tech Bulldogs 48.5 30 Boxscore
@ Fresno State Bulldogs 51.5 31  
Troy Trojans 34.7 22 Boxscore
@ Navy Midshipmen 65.3 29  
Kansas State Wildcats 14.9 26 Boxscore
@ Oklahoma State Cowboys 85.1 39  
Texas A&M Aggies 27.7 29 Boxscore
@ Oklahoma Sooners 72.3 36  
Kansas Jayhawks 33.7 23 Boxscore
@ Iowa State Cyclones 66.3 30  
Texas Tech Red Raiders 37.6 26 Boxscore
@ Texas Longhorns 62.4 30  
Missouri Tigers 61.4 31 Boxscore
@ Baylor Bears 38.6 27  
Tulane Green Wave 36.6 25 Boxscore
@ Southern Methodist Mustangs 63.4 32  
Tulsa Golden Hurricane 39.6 33 Boxscore
@ UCF Knights 60.4 35  
Southern Miss Golden Eagles 53.5 33 Boxscore
@ East Carolina Pirates 46.5 32  
UTEP Miners 56.4 27 Boxscore
@ Rice Owls 43.6 26  
Houston Cougars 91.1 44 Boxscore
@ UAB Blazers 8.9 26  
New Mexico Lobos 5.0 12 Boxscore
@ San Diego State Aztecs 95.0 39  
Army Black Knights 32.2 19 Boxscore
@ Air Force Falcons 67.8 25  
Boise State Broncos 95.0 52 Boxscore
@ UNLV Rebels 5.0 11  
TCU Horned Frogs 95.0 39 Boxscore
@ Wyoming Cowboys 5.0 15  
Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks 39.1 24 Boxscore
@ Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns 60.9 27  
FIU Golden Panthers 65.3 30 Boxscore
@ Western Kentucky Hilltoppers 34.7 24  
Arkansas State Red Wolves 83.2 32 Boxscore
@ Florida Atlantic Owls 16.8 18  
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