Larry Burton (Syndicated Writer) The Vegas line started with Bama being either a 5.5 or 6.0 point favorite. Now that line is down to 4.0 at most places.
The quick early and big money went for Bama, now that more money is diving in and going for LSU, the line is going down.
The bookmakers and sports casinos don't care who wins, they just want to balance the betting as close to 50% betting on LSU and 50% betting on Alabama, then they take out their house cut and pay the rest to the winners.
But they do want to know what a good line is and who should be favored to win. Though there is a lot of other data they use, like injuries, (no real advantage to either team there) and other things that generally wash out.
But the main thing they use is a "Smart Chart" and here is an actual smart chart used by one of the sports book houses.
Does Vegas Know What They're Talking About Making Bama the Favorite?
So it looks good for the Tide fans have good reason not to worry too much, since there is no category that Alabama doesn't get the nod.
It's interesting that the points scored is almost a wash, but Alabama allows 5 less points scored on them a game. Could that be the "tell" they're using for the point spread?
Another interesting fact is that Vegas sees Alabama as the BCS champion.
Right now, their odds of winning the title is even money. That's as low as it goes.
Here's those current odds.
(odds updated October 25th, 2011)
2012 BCS Bowl Game Champion Odds:
Boise St +1200
Georgia Tech +500000
Michigan St +6000
Oklahoma St +500
Penn St +30000
South Carolina +10000
Texas A&M +500000
Texas Tech +500000
Virginia Tech +30000
West Virginia +500000
Wisconsin +7500xz Field (Any Other Team) +15000
Sounds like Vegas has made their mind up, now let's see if two teams involved oblige.