NFL Predictions: Dallas Cowboys vs. Philadelphia Eagles: Five Keys to Dominance

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The Dallas Cowboys surprised everyone last Sunday by running for more than 290 yards, most of which came from rookie DeMarco Murray in his first start.

In the final game before their bye, the Philadelphia Eagles appeared to get on track with their run defense while holding a solid Washington Redskins team to only 13 points. The Eagles offense had its struggles in the second half against a determined Redskins defense, but ultimately Philadelphia prevailed, 20-13.

The Cowboys and the Eagles meet this Sunday night in a contest that will tell us a lot about where these teams are headed.

Five key factors will allow one team to dominate the other:

The Dallas Cowboys Running Attack

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The key question here is, have the Dallas Cowboys finally gotten their running game on track?

They started the year horribly against the Jets, rushing at 2.5 yards per carry. Next, they averaged an even worse two yards per carry against the 49ers. Then, against the Redskins they got their fullback Tony Fiammetta back on the field and averaged 4.8 yards a carry. Against the Lions, they averaged 4.2 yards a carry, but against the Patriots, while missing Fiammetta once again, they averaged only 3.2 yards per carry.

Then came the shocker against the Rams. How on Earth did this team suddenly run for more than 290 yards? Well, for starters, the Cowboys re-signed veteran Montre Holland to their beat-up and inexperienced offensive line during the week.  Next, they welcomed Fiammetta back from his injury. And finally, they finally started their third-round draft pick DeMarco Murray at running back (Felix Jones is out with a high ankle sprain).

The result was a new Dallas Cowboys single game rushing record:  253 yards for Murray.

So, what do we make of all this? Was this just the result of an opponent that is winless and has given up on its season? The Rams are terrible, there's no doubt about it.  On the other hand, no other team has run for 294 yards against them.

Taken together, the 4.8 yards per carry against the Redskins, the 4.2 yards per carry against the Lions and the 8.6 yards per carry against the Rams indicates a team that can run the ball effectively when it has a true fullback in there lead blocking.

Furthermore, the addition of 340-pound Holland to this line seems to have helped add some mass and force in the run blocking.

If the Eagles stubbornly persist with their wide-nine formation, expect them to get gashed in the running game significantly. After a bye week to look over and evaluate things, however, I seriously doubt the Eagles will continue with lots of wide-nine looks. I would expect them to at least bring those into seven position for their defensive ends. Having seen what the Cowboys were able to do last week must be sobering to Andy Reid. Look for a more conventional approach to their defensive alignments.

However, here is the most important impact of the Cowboys vs. Rams game last week. Seeing Murray go off for 253 yards has already set up the play-action pass for the Cowboys. They will have the option of attacking the Eagles with underneath throws to Jason Witten, quick screens, play action, deep balls—the entire playbook will be open to them on their first possession of the game as a result of what they put on tape last week.

Two weeks ago, Dallas was ranked 31st in the league in running the ball. Opposing defensive coordinators were relatively secure in the knowledge that the Cowboys were one-dimensional and the entire focus of the game plan could be attacking Tony Romo and getting sacks or forcing the costly interception. 

Now Dallas is ranked 13th in rushing yardage and appears to have a new superstar at running back.

It's anybody’s guess whether Murray will have a great game this week or if he will go on to have a great career. That’s really not the point I am making. The point is, he has put forth an effort that a defensive coordinator must fear and game plan for. No one wants to be the coach who saw a historic rushing performance the week before and went out and got beat by the very weapon all of his film study told him to worry about.

What Murray did last week will take pressure off Romo this week. You simply cant go full tilt after the quarterback when you're worried about a guy who can go 91 yards on a simply draw play up the middle. You just can’t.

That brings us to the next key.

Which Tony Romo Will We See Against the Eagles Sunday Night?

Hoping for the "Good Tony"
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Will we see a solid Tony Romo the entire game, or will there be another second-half meltdown?

If I am head coach Jason Garret, I walk up to Romo before the game, hand him the football and say “Treat this like your baby, only give it to the ones you trust.” 

That's right, Romo is going to be a father. He announced it earlier in the week. So, does impending fatherhood help focus or distract Romo?

I’m predicting Romo will be a beast this week.  I think the new threat of the running game, the new veteran presence on the offensive line and the final step toward manhood for Romo (fatherhood) is a scary cocktail for an opposing defense. When Romo is good, he is very good, and I think this week you’re going to see his best stuff.

Eagles fans should be seriously concerned about a more responsible Romo with a potentially dangerous running game and a wide array of receiving targets. I am expecting Romo to spread the ball around and find Witten, Miles Austin, Dez Bryant, Laurent Robinson and Murray often enough to move the chains consistently throughout the game. Don't be surprised if he sneaks a pass or two to Tony Fiammetta, as well.

Which Michael Vick Will Be Playing Sunday Night?

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There are two sides to Michael Vick this season: the multiple-threat game breaker and the injury-prone turnover machine.

It's astounding that Vick is 21st in the league in rushing yards among all runners, and he is a 14th among all quarterbacks in passing yards. But to go with those numbers, Vick is tied for fifth in interceptions thrown and leads all runners with six fumbles.

On the plus side, Vick is running at a clip of over eight yards a carry and he runs for a first down an obscene 40 percent of the time. On the negative side, when he runs he often holds the ball in a way that allows it to be stripped.

So, which Vick will play Sunday night? That's easy. Both.

When you look over the play by play analysis of the games he has played this year you see that each game features both Vick's. Against bad teams like St.Louis, the team came overcome his mistakes and capitalize on his big plays. But against good teams, those mistakes prove too costly and tend to happen at a greater rate.

Why is this exactly? Part of it is a function of speed and playmaking ability of opposing defenses. When he has faced defenses that are poor at getting runners to the ground in the second level, he has excelled in getting yardage without turning the ball over too much. But against teams with playmakers throughout their defense, someone eventually runs him down and makes a play on him as well as on the ball. The result: another Vick fumble.

So, the first part of this key is, how will Vick play against a Dallas defense that is ranked No. 1 in the league against the run? And the second part is, how will Vick do against a Dallas defense that features two of the league's highest performing linebackers?

Dallas possesses the leagues most confusing and unpredictable pass defense. Sean Lee leads all linebackers in interceptions and passes defensed and he is tied for second in fumble recoveries.

DeMarcus Ware leads all linebackers in sacks.

Vick could easily have his worst game of the year this Sunday.  I expect Rob Ryan to devise a game plan that minimizes Vick’s running ability while still pressuring him out of his comfort zone. Vick has been injury prone this year due to a porous offensive line.  It is entirely likely that he will be either knocked out of this game or simply overwhelmed by constant pressure and make multiple turnovers.

The Dallas Cowboys Need Big Games from Their Big Receivers

Miles to Go
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Its been a tough start to the season for the Cowboys wide receivers. Miles Austin was sidelined for several games, Dez Bryant missed time as well and then played hurt for a couple of games. Kevin Ogletree showed he doesn't have what it takes to be the third receiver and lost his job to journeyman Laurent Robinson.

The passing game has been underwhelming and out of sync at key times when it was desperately needed.

And yet, the Cowboys have the league's fourth-best passing offense based upon yards per game.

How does this happen? Credit goes to Jason Garret and the offense he runs, as well as Tony Romo and his ability to move around and still get through his reads and find the open guy. That guy may be a running back, a tight end, a newly arrived third receiver, or even a reality show winner like Jesse Holley.

But the guys the Cowboys would love to get the ball to are Austin and Bryant. Putting the ball in their hands is vitally important this week.

The fact is that Asante Samuel doesn't match up well against either Dallas wideout.

I have heard analysts say they expect the Eagles to put Nnamdi Asomugha on Austin to start the game, but I highly doubt that.

Bryant was the big performer among receivers in the last Dallas game and it should be obvious he will absolutely abuse Samuel. Dez is 6'2", 220 pounds. Samuel is 5'10", 185.

On the other hand, Austin is 6'2", 215, so either way, it could be long day for Samuel, no matter who he's covering. My guess is Samuel will be getting torched so bad by the end of the second quarter that Eagles will switch their coverage for the second half. It's unlikely to make much of a difference, though.

The scary part about this duo is that both Austin and Bryant have breakaway speed combined with tremendous strength and yards after contact potential. Arm tackles wont get it done with these guys.

One of the results of the new labor agreement has been a reduction in physical practices and much more time off mandated during the bye week. This doesn't bode well for the Eagles secondary. Expect big things from the Cowboys wideouts.

The Eagles Run Defense Will Determine the Outcome Against the Cowboys

Gaping Holes in Eagles D-Line
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How much progress have the Philadelphia Eagles made in their run defense from earlier this season?  

This is a team that gave up 5.9 yards a carry to the Rams, 4.8 yards a carry against Atlanta,  4.1 yards per carry against the Giants, 6.6 yards per carry against the 49ers, 4.1 yards per carry against Buffalo and then only three yards per carry against the Redskins.

So, it would appear that the Eagles are getting the run defense under control, right? I mean, if we are going to conclude that the Cowboys have their running game on track after one great game, shouldn't we conclude that the Eagles have their run defense on track after a great showing against the Redskins?

Not so fast. Washington was without its top running back during that game, and it also suffered two injuries on its offensive line. Kory Lichtensteiger tore up a knee just three minutes into the game.

Then, just two minutes into the second quarter, Trent Williams suffered a high ankle sprain. This resulted in a complete re-shuffling of the offensive line, which was clearly out of sync the entire game. 

To make matters worse for Washington, Rex Grossman threw four picks in the game, putting his team in a whole early and then keeping them there.

Washington only made 14 attempts to run the ball during that game.

The Eagles have made adjustments to their defense and will continue to do so, but it's too optimistic to assume, based upon this one game, that they have solved their problems defending the run. It would be more accurate to say that the Redskins solved the Eagles run defense problem for one game by suffering casualties on their line and abandoning the run entirely.

The problem with having a glaring weakness defensively is that it infects your entire scheme. If you can't win at the point of attack, play-action passes will devastate your secondary by sucking up the safeties and exposing your cornerbacks.

The Dallas Cowboys vs. the Philadelphia Eagles: The Bottom Line

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While Dallas certainly has had its concerns this year, Philadelphia has weaknesses that, at least on paper, would seem to nullify the issues the Cowboys have struggled with.

Philadelphia has taken an experimental approach to this season with an untested, inexperienced defensive coordinator, an inexperienced offensive line, the utilization of an odd defensive alignment in the  “wide-nine” and the use of an offensive scheme that depends upon a running quarterback who often as not gets injured or turns the ball over or both. That’s a bit much to overcome, no matter how much talent you have on offense.

The  Cowboys have had concerns with their running offense and with taking care of the football. Without those issues, they would be undefeated this year. Actually, a lot of teams could say that. However, they appear to have gotten their running game on track and have been much better in the past two games with ball security.

The Eagles really haven't proven that they can defend against the run effectively and they struggle to protect Vick in the pocket. While Vick can make up for a lot with his speed and running ability, he is far too prone to fumble and/or get injured when he is on the run, not to mention the fact that he can't utilize his receivers when he is running.

Dallas has the right defense to minimize Vick's effectiveness and it plays Philadelphia right as the Eagles offense is beginning to trend downward. Philly started the year scoring 31 points twice in a row, but then it dropped to 16, 23, 24 and 20.

On the other side of the ball, the Cowboys will have numerous opportunities to expose the Eagles defense this Sunday, both on the ground and through the air. As long as they are efficient in the red zone, they will win this game.