Federer: First Among Equals

However, the fact remains that Roger Federer remains the toughest player to win three sets against. It took mono and a hot Djokovic to beat him in Australia. It took a blisteringly hot Nadal to beat him at Roland Garros, and a 9-7 fifth set at Wimbledon. Then, having won no hard court titles leading up to the U.S. Open, Federer captured his fifth in a row, plowing through Djokovic and Andy Murray in the last two rounds.

This bodes very well for his plans, as he now prioritizes wresting the Grand Slam record away from Sampras. His fall season defeats at the hands of Gilles Simon and Murray (twice) indicate that it is no longer ludicrous to expect him to lose sometimes, but that doesn’t mean he can’t still be the best in the world. The Reign of Fed is likely over, but we’ve now entered a new phase: Roger Federer is now first among equals.

Here’s how I see 2009 breaking down:

Australian Open

This is the hardest slam to predict. Sure, Federer’s won here three times, Andre Agassi four and Sampras twice, but this is the slam that that gave us the only major titles of Petr Korda and Thomas Johansson’s careers, plus the only finals for Thomas Enqvist, Marcos Baghdatis and Fernando Gonzalez. It usually favors one player with a lot of momentum going in and one player who happens to get hot at the time. As Murray has been peaking since the fall, and because of his 4-2 head-to-head record against Federer, I look for him to capture his first major here.

Roland Garros

Many people are saying that Rafael Nadal’s time is fleeting, that his knee can’t hold out, that he hasn’t won a title in months, blah blah blah. They said the same thing last year and will say the same in 2010. Clay is not as hard on Rafa’s fragile knees as other surfaces, and every year about that time the surface has a transformative effect on his game. Look for him to five-peat.

Wimbledon

Here it gets very interesting. How can this tournament live up to the precedent set last year? It probably can’t, but should still make for interesting viewing. Here, Federer finds renewal similar to what Nadal experiences on clay, and will be eager to reclaim the title he values above all others. The Spaniard will stand in his way again, but look for Federer to reclaim it in their fourth-consecutive final, and their third to go five sets.

U.S. Open

I didn’t expect Federer to win here last year as he was coming off hard-court losses to Blake, Simon and Ivo Karlovic in the summer circuit. Ne’er will I make that mistake again. Federer clearly gets a rush playing in New York, and deserves favorite status at this event even if he comes into it with no titles. Since he’ll be coming off his sixth Wimbledon title, look for Federer to capture his sixth straight Open crown.

Sampras will make good on his promise to attend the event to watch Federer break his record. Federer will reclaim No. 1, and finish the year as such, though likely for the last time.

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