Last week, my picks went a solid 3-2. I consider 55 to 60 percent the benchmark for good picks against the spread. In that light, last week was a success.
I am picking six games this week. Since going 3-3 would lose money, the goal is to go 4-2.
On to the picks:
The Redskins have a good defense. They held the Eagles to just 20 points last week. Yes, they were intercepted four times, but they only lost by seven.
Cam Newton is a good quarterback, but he leads the NFL in interceptions. All the Redskins have to do is lose by a field goal or fewer, or win outright. That extra .5 is huge.
The Pick: Washington
Wait, the Dolphins are giving points? How is this possible? You need to jump on this before the line changes. Tim Tebow doesn’t lose to winless teams.
The Pick: Denver
How many will I get right?
Green Bay has been playing very well lately. Minnesota just got blown out by Chicago. I don’t think anyone is picking the Packers to lose.
The question is how many the Packers will win by. They have won by double digits in each of their past four games. I don’t expect that to change against the Vikings.
The Pick: Green Bay
The Steelers didn’t look great on Sunday. They beat the Jaguars, but only by four points. Arizona had their bye week. Most people will be picking the Steelers to win the game.
Most likely, the Cardinals will lose by double digits. The closest I could see them coming would be a 24-20 loss. I can’t see them losing by fewer than three or winning.
The Pick: Pittsburgh
The Lions' loss to the 49ers helped drive this line down. All Detroit has to do in order to cover is win by a field goal. The Falcons have only beaten teams who now have a losing record.
Detroit is 5-1. In other words, don’t bet on the Falcons being able to stick with the Lions.
The Pick: Detroit
If you read my NFL picks column, you would know I think the Bucs will win outright. Chicago is a hot team right now because of how good they looked on Sunday night.
That was against a bad team though. I’m cheating a little, but wait for the line to get to Bears -3. Then take the three points and the Bucs.
The Pick: Tampa Bay (at +3)
Last Week: 3-2