College Football Predictions Week 7: Picks Against the Spread for the Top Games
Oklahoma State quarterback Brandon Weeden
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Picking college football games against the spread already has an inherent precarious nature to it. Placing a, ahem, friendly wager that one team can or can't beat another by a certain amount of points is already a cautionary tale before the first amount is ever bet.
Remember, you're dealing with professionals who set these lines each week.
But, we'll try to muddle through the pros, the injuries, the hostile environments for road teams and give you some predictions on several games through the course of today's games.
Of course, these are for fun and amusement only, right?
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Suffering your first loss of the season shouldn’t ruin any chance that you have at making the national championship game. However, losing a game, especially right before the poll that determine who plays in the title game, the BCS Poll, that almost makes it impossible to come back from.
So it’s why today’s loss to Michigan ruins any momentum that they had before this week.
Can they recover and put together a championship season? It’s possible but after today it looks highly unlikely.
For the Michigan Wolverines, they still have a lot of college football left to play, on their way to a Big Ten championship.
Heading into today’s game against Michigan State, the Wolverines were the talk of college football winning their first six games. However, they hadn’t played a team as good as Michigan State.
Today, the best defense in the Big-Ten seemed to be to much for Denard Robinson and the Michigan offense.
How does this Michigan team respond, will have to be answered in two weeks, as the Wolverines are off next week.
The bye week comes at a great time, as their leader on offense, quarterback Denard Robinson, is dealing with an “upper body” injury and a number of bumps and bruises from the Michigan State game.
Next up after they bye week is fellow Big-Ten member, the Purdue Boilermakers. It’s their first chance at righting the ship to a championship season.
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LSU or Alabama, who is the best team in the SEC West division? As a matter of fact, which one of these two teams is the best one in college football?
It’s a question that cannot be answered by any college football expert on television, radio or on the internet. Either side can make their points made about why their body of work is more impressive than the others.
In fact let’s take a look at what each team has done to get to this point in the year.
LSU Tigers No. 1 AP No. 2 USA Today
LSU has gone out and beaten four ranked teams this year. In fact those four victories have come with their backup quarterback leading this offense.
Three of those four victories were on the road. And, two of the victories came against teams that are at the top of their conference or division inside of the conference.
Alabama Crimson Tide No. 2 AP No. 3 USA Today
Alabama has an impressive resume as LSU through their first seven victories.
Three of those victories have come against ranked teams. Two of those three have been on the road. And two of those three victories have come against fellow SEC members.
So who’s the best team in the SEC? We’ll let you the fans decide that one.
But, the two teams will decide which one is the best on November 5th, at LSU.
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Who wants to burn the midnight oil and stay up for some late night college football? Well, put on another pot of coffee, find a can of Surge or head to your local pup or restaurant because there is a lot of great college football on later tonight.
The first game that starts at 9:00 p.m. or later is between Oklahoma and Kansas. It’s a game that will feature an Oklahoma team, trying to prove that they should open the BCS rankings at No. 1.
They still are No. 1 in the eyes of the NCAA coaches who vote in the USA Today Poll every week. But, they are No. 3 in the eyes of the press who vote in the Associated Press Poll.
You should watch tonight to see if Oklahoma tries to score as many points as possible, trying to open the BCS standings at No. 1.
The second game is the ESPN, game of the week. As No. 9 Oregon welcomes No. 18 Arizona State.
Both teams come into this game still with a shot at the Pac-12 championship and a shot, an outside shot, at making the BCS championship game.
Oregon needs a big win tonight, to move ahead of Stanford in the BCS standings. The win will be their first over a ranked team, something that Stanford has not done this year.
A big win for Oregon tonight may just move them ahead of other undefeated teams like Clemson and Boise State.
So make a point to stay away and see two teams trying to score as many points as possible to impress the computers, aka the BCS standings.
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There are teams every year that make the bottom half of the first BCS Poll that not to many people notice.
But, there are some teams out there now that have a strong case as to why they should be included in the first poll. These teams are not ranked in any polls right now.
Penn State Nittany Lions
Penn State has one bad loss on the year, that came at the hands of No. 3 Alabama. Since then poll voters have kept the Nittany Lions out of the polls. But, after winning their following five games, they should be considered as one of the best 25 teams in the country.
USC Trojans
USC is still on probation from their players being involved in illegal activities. However, this year they are putting together a great record, with what scholarship athletes they have left.
At 5-2 on the year, they deserve a spot in the first BCS poll.
Cincinnati Bearcats
Cincinnati will be discredited for two things, one, their only loss on the season was against Tennessee and two, they play in the Big East Conference.
However, they have a record better than teams like Texas A&M and Auburn, both teams who will be in the first BCS poll, at 5-1. If the voters can look past those two negatives against this Cincinnati team, they will get a spot at No. 25, or 24.
Three teams that should get into the first BCS poll. If they aren’t in the first one, they will definitely be in next week.
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There is a two team race in the Pac-12 conference for who will represent the conference in the Rose Bowl on January 1st. It’s the same two teams that fought it out for last year’s top spot in the Pac-12, the Stanford Cardinals and the Oregon Ducks.
This year the two teams start out again high in both the Associated Press and USA Today Coaches polls. However, this year the Ducks have one loss already on the season, compared to the Cardinals who are still undefeated.
However, coming into the first BCS poll on Sunday night the one-loss Ducks will be ranked higher than the undefeated Cardinals.
The reason being is that the Ducks have played a tougher schedule than Stanford this year. The loss that Oregon suffered this year wasn’t to some unranked team that got lucky against the Ducks. No, it was against the No. 1 LSU Tigers. An LSU team that has a great chance at opening the BCS poll at No. 1.
Tonight Oregon takes on No. 18 Arizona State at home. They will be doing so without starting running back LaMichael James.
A win tonight, a blow out win at that, should be enough for the Ducks to jump a Stanford team that has yet to play any ranked teams this year.
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A win today should put the Georgia Bulldogs back into the Top 25. A Georgia (4-2 overall 3-1 conference) win today against Vanderbilt (3-2 overall 1-2 conference) would be their fifth in a row and fourth straight win against a conference opponent.
The win tonight keeps the Bulldogs in a great position to win the SEC East division, as injuries to Florida, has put the Gators into the third spot in the division.
After today’s South Carolina game, a game that saw the Gamecocks win over Mississippi State, the Bulldogs should leapfrog SC as the favorite to win the division.
The reason being, and yes we know that South Carolina beat Georgia earlier this year, is that South Carolina’s best offensive weapon, Marcus Lattimore is now injured.
Lattimore left the game today against Mississippi State with an apparent leg injury. After the game, Gamecocks coach Steve Spurrier said that Lattimore’s injury was a sprain, but he could miss a significant amount of time.
With the injury to Marcus and senior quarterback Steven Garcia kicked off the team, the Gamecocks will be now on upset watch every single week.
WIth a month and a half to play in this season, it’s easy to predict that South Carolina will lose one or two more games this year.
For Georgia, all that they have to do is keep on winning, like they are, and they will be playing in the Georgia Dome for the SEC Championship.
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There are those teams that are ranked and have an easy game tonight against a team that does not match up with them well. But, then there are the teams tonight that have games against opponents that are matched very evenly.
These teams are on upset watch; which a loss tonight will ruin any chances at starting out strong in the first BCS poll.
Kansas State Wildcats
Kansas State comes into this game against Texas Tech with a perfect record on the year, with impressive wins against Miami (FL) and Baylor. But, they still don’t have an offense that really scares anyone.
Tonight against an explosive offense in Texas Tech, they have a great chance to lose their first game of the season.
Virginia Tech Hokies
Va. Tech has played two bad games this year. The one they lost, was against a Clemson team that may end up playing in the national championship game this year.
The one the won last week against Miami (FL) team that may not even make a bowl game this year.
Tonight against a good, but not ranked, Wake Forest team, they have a chance at falling flat on their face falling out of the ACC Atlantic division race.
Two teams, both ranked, but after tonight’s upset losses to unranked teams, they may find themselves outside of the polls come Sunday.
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Tonight’s late games feature a number of ranked teams playing important games before the first BCS Poll is revealed on Sunday night. Fans of these ranked teams can expect the best from these ranked teams, to help improve their rankings.
Alabama Crimson Tide
Alabama is on the road this week at one time SEC power, Ole Miss. They come into this game tonight with a chance to have a big blow out win, to hopefully jump ahead of LSU and Oklahoma in the first BCS poll.
The Ole Miss Rebels are a team that is in disarray, with a coach that may not make it through the end of this season.
Expect the Tide to win big tonight.
Boise State Broncos
Boise State needs to have big blow out victories in every game the rest of the way. Tonight against a bad Colorado State Rams, Boise State fans can expect this game to be over before half time.
Clemson Tigers
Clemson has been this year’s surprise team, as they were not even ranked in any of the preseason polls this year. A win against Maryland tonight, a blow out win at that, will help the Tigers state their case that they should be considered in the top five in the first BCS poll.
Three teams that will guarantee to blow out all of their opponents, and will guarantee cover their point spreads as well.
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Game: Arizona State at Oregon
Time: 10:15 pm ET
Line: Oregon -14
The bad news for No.9 Oregon is that they will be without running back LaMichael James tonight against No. 18 Arizona State. The good news is that the Ducks have Kenjon Barner ready to step into his place.
While nothing will likely change for Oregon offensively, they will have to prove successful against a very tough, opportunistic Arizona State defense.
Led by linebacker Vontaze Burfict, Arizona State is ranked second in the Pac-12, in total defense, allowing 349 yards, while their rushing defense is holding opponents to an average of 119.7 yards a game.
The key to the game though is for Oregon to take care of the football, since the Sun Devils have forced a league-best 18 turnovers this season, including 10 in the last two games. On the other hand, the Oregon defense has only four takeaways all season long.
The biggest challenge for the Oregon defense will be slowing down Arizona State quarterback Brock Osweiler, who is having a very good season to date. Osweiler is coming off of a big game, throwing for 325 yards and three touchdowns in the Sun Devils’ victory over the Utah.
Prediction: The Sun Devils have dropped six straight to the Ducks, including last season’s 42-31 loss in Tempe, and they’ve lost 15 straight games against teams ranked in the Top 10 overall.
Oregon, meanwhile, has won 19 straight at Autzen Stadium. The Ducks have also won 14 straight conference games, dating back 2009.
Even without James, the Ducks should be fine, but it won't be easy. Oregon wins but doesn't cover. Ducks 34-24.
Matt Shetler
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Game: Virginia Tech at Wake Forest
Time: 7:00 pm ET
Line: Virginia Tech -7
A year ago, Wake Forest finished the season 3-9, winning only one ACC contest. Today they sit as a 4-1 football team with a perfect 3-0 conference mark.
That's enough to qualify the Demon Deacons as one of the biggest surprises in the nation, if not the country’s biggest surprise. Only an overtime loss to Syracuse on the season's first week has prevented Wake Forest from starting the season unbeaten.
A week ago they tamed then No.23 Florida State, now No. 19 Virginia Tech come to town as the Demon Deacons look to beat ranked teams in consecutive weeks for the first time in school history.
If they are going to be successful, they better hope running back Josh Harris can go. Harris rushed for 136 yards on 13 carries against FSU, but left the game with a hamstring injury that has kept him out of practice all week.
If he can go, he has had success against the Hokies in the past, as he rushed for 241 yards and a pair of scores against Virginia Tech a season ago.
The Hokies had allowed only 51 yards per game on the ground on the season before Miami torched them for 236 yards on the ground last week. All in all, the usually talented Virginia Tech defense allowed 519 yards of total offense to Miami.
With three defensive starters out of action for Virginia Tech due to injury, that's something that the Demon Deacons will look to exploit.
Prediction: Virginia Tech quarterback Logan Thomas was fantastic in last week's thriller against Miami, but wasn't very good the week before against Clemson. Meanwhile, the Demon Deacons keep facing tough tests and keep responding. Upset special. The home dogs not only cover the number, they win outright. Wake Forest 31-30.
Matt Shetler
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Game: Florida at Auburn
Time: 7:00 pm ET
Line: Florida -2
Saturday night's matchup between Florida and Auburn features a pair of SEC teams with a lot in common.
Both have won national championships recently. Both teams go into Saturday night’s matchup attempting to rebound from blowout losses. Both are also dealing with injuries and quarterback issues.
The defending national champion Tigers are fresh off a 38-14 loss at No. 10 Arkansas in which they were held scoreless for the final three quarters. The Gators have lost back-to-back games by a combined score of 79-21 against the Top 2 teams in the nation in LSU and Alabama.
All four of their combined losses have come against Top 10 teams.
As for the quarterback issues, Florida will start freshman quarterback Jacoby Brissett and Auburn is standing by struggling starter Barrett Trotter but freshman Kiehl Frazier is beginning to play a bigger role in the Tigers offense.
Tonight could be Frazier's coming out party.
Both teams will also be wise to try and run the ball. That's where their best weapons are. For Auburn it's about feeding Michael Dyer and for Florida, it should be about getting its sputtering running attack back on track with its trio of weapons, especially with a true freshman quarterback under center.
Prediction: It really shouldn't matter what quarterback Will Muschamp starts today. Florida also has a banged up defensive line and Auburn will take advantage on the ground. The Gators losing streak is about to hit three. Take the Tigers and the points. Auburn 27-17.
Matt Shetler
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The Big 12 Conference features five ranked teams in action during Week 7; including two matchups between ranked teams. The slate is headlined by Baylor heading to Texas A&M in early action and Oklahoma State traveling to Austin to take on Texas.
Let's look at this week's Big 12 locks of the week.
Baylor at Texas A&M (-8): On paper, this looks to be a very high scoring game, but the defenses will likely play a bigger role than most believe. You can't forget the Aggies second half meltdowns of late, so look for Robert Griffin III to take control of the game late and lead the Bears to a big road win. Baylor 27-20.
Iowa State at Missouri (-17): Missouri is the more talented team, but haven't exactly played like it all season. Playing at home, they have a better than average chance to win the game, but covering the line could be a big challenge. Tigers 24-20.
Oklahoma State (-8) at Texas: Oklahoma State leads the nation in scoring at 51 points per game and quarterback Brandon Weeden is an impressive 7-0 on the road as a starter. The Cowboys offense is on fire and they are facing a Texas defense that allowed over 300 yards in the air a week ago to Oklahoma. That's not a good trend if you are a Longhorns fan.
Cowboys’ wide receiver Justin Blackmon, had success a season ago against a veteran Texas secondary but will be covered by a group of freshman and sophomore cornerbacks. On paper it should be a field day for Oklahoma State.
Texas will keep it close for three quarters but in the end Oklahoma State not only wins but they cover as well. Cowboys 34 Longhorns 20
Kansas State at Texas Tech (-3.5): Bill Snyder's Wildcats have surprised so far this season and likely still aren't getting the respect that they deserve. The Wildcats have found a way to a 5-0 start to the season, but will face a tough test in Lubbock, where they traditionally haven't had a great deal of success.
Kansas State caught a big break though when Texas Tech running back Eric Stephens, who was averaging 114 yards per game, was lost for the season with a dislocated knee. That's a big advantage for Kansas State's defense because Stephens three replacements combined are averaging 31 yards per game. Wildcats 26-21.
Oklahoma (-37) at Kansas: The Jayhawks secondary was torched by Weeden and Oklahoma State a week ago and it doesn't get any easier this week when Landry Jones and Oklahoma come to town. Jones has lit it up the past two weeks and that will continue this week. Oklahoma 48-10.
Matt Shetler
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The nation's premier conference is in action in Week 7 featuring five conference battles that features four ranked teams in action. On an interesting note, all five SEC road teams come in as favorites this week.
Let's take a look at my SEC locks of the week for Week 7.
South Carolina (-3.5) at Mississippi State: The Bulldogs have been an underachieving bunch all season, but look for their best effort today at home. Gamecocks quarterback Connor Shaw will find things much more difficult this week in his second start. Upset special. Mississippi State 20-17.
LSU (-18.5) at Tennessee: No Tyler Bray for Tennessee, no chance. The Vols likely weren't going to win this game with Bray under center, so they aren't going to with Matt Simms getting the start. Simms is a capable quarterback, but this is a tough situation to be thrown into. Tigers 37-17.
Alabama (-28) at Mississippi: Roll tide roll. Should be an easy win for Alabama, but could be a tough cover. Crimson Tide 34-13.
Florida (-2) at Auburn: It probably doesn't matter if Florida coach Will Muschamp goes with Jacoby Brissett or Jeff Driskel under center, the Gators losing streak is about to hit three. Auburn 27-17.
Georgia (-12.5) at Vanderbilt: The Georgia defense has been playing great as of late and that will make all of the difference in this one. Georgia quarterback Aaron Murray will also continue his streak of good play as Georgia will win their fifth straight game. Bulldogs 31-16.
Matt Shetler
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The ACC Conference has had an up and down crazy type of season to this point. Who really though Clemson and Wake Forest would be where they are currently at when the season began and on the other hand, who would have predicted the type of season Florida State has had so far.
Week 7 brings on some conference action that sees four road teams enter as favorites, headlined by Wake Forest hosting Virginia Tech.
Let's take a look at how this week will shape up.
Miami at North Carolina (-3): Miami's Lamar Miller is proving to be one of the better backs in the country, but the Miami defense isn't playing like a Miami defense should. Tar Heels 27-24.
Florida State (-13) at Duke: Who would have thought the day would come when Florida State would only be laying 13 points against Duke? The Seminoles have only beaten Charleston Southern and Louisiana-Monroe on the season. Duke is better than those two team, but the Seminoles should find a way back in the win column. Seminoles 41-20.
Georgia Tech (-8) at Virgina: This could be a tougher test for the Yellow Jackets than most people would imagine. Georgia Tech will improve to 7-0 on the year, but will have a difficult time covering on the road. Yellow Jackets 24-17.
Virginia Tech (-7) at Wake Forest: Virginia Tech quarterback Logan Thomas was fantastic in last week's thriller against Miami, but wasn't very good the week before against Clemson. Meanwhile, the Demon Deacons keep facing tough tests and keep responding. Upset special. The home dogs not only cover the number, they win outright. Wake Forest 31-30.
Clemson (-9) at Maryland: Tajh Boyd is expected to start for Clemson and that's enough for me. This has the makings of a trap game for Clemson, but in the ends the Tigers talent will win out. Clemson's big play potential will be the difference as the Tigers will improve to 7-0. Clemson 31-16.
Matt Shetler
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The Pac 12 Conference is in action on Saturday with a trio of conference tilts and a pair of Pac 12 schools heading on the road for midseason non-conference games.
The Week 7 schedule is highlighted by Arizona State heading to Oregon for a late night showdown.
Let's take a look around the Pac 12 and see what will happen.
Utah at Pitt (-6): Which Panthers team will show up? As a matter of fact, which Utah team will show up? Ray Graham is leading the nation in rushing but Pitt is proving week-to-week that he is all they have. Mistakes have killed Pitt to this date and I look for that trend to continue. Utes 24-17.
Colorado at Washington (-16.5): The Buffalos are struggling in their initial season in the Pac 12 and it doesn't get easier this week as they head to the road to take on 4-1 Washington. Huskies 34-17.
BYU at Oregon State (-3): I don't really trust the Cougars, especially on the road, but the Beavers aren't very good. BYU wins outright. Cougars 27-20.
Stanford (-21) at Washington State: Andrew Luck is coming off of his best game of the season. He will be better this week as the Cardinal roll. Stanford 45-10.
Arizona State at Oregon (-14): The game of the week in the Pac 12 features a ton of questions. The main one concerning the Oregon offense and how they will react without running back LaMichael James. The Ducks will be fine, but I don't like the two touchdown line. Oregon 34-24.
Matt Shetler



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