NBA Season in 2011-2012? Why the Lockout Will Last Until 2012
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There will not be an NBA season this year. The cliché "money is the root of all problems" holds true here. The NBA lockout is simply a money issue. There has been a lot of talk about how much money the NBA actually lost last year. I will attempt to give you a synopsis of these talks and explain why they indicate that there will be no season.
According to the Adam Silver, the Deputy Commissioner of the NBA, the league lost over $300 million this year and 22 teams lost money . However, these claims have been dissected by some very smart people. These people have poked holes in the NBA's story.
One such person is Larry Coon, who did a great job of simplifying how the NBA may have manipulated the books to make it seem like they lost more money than they actually did. However, he still states that even after the accounting trick the NBA used, they still lost $120 million last year.
The New York Times' Nate Silver delves even deeper into the issue here. If his numbers are correct, he still thinks that 17 of the 30 NBA teams lost money.
Of course, the NBA refuted the numbers that Nate Silver used in his article to tear apart the NBA's claims. They also went far enough dispute individual claims in the Silver piece.
The point isn't really who is right or wrong, or who is spinning the numbers the most. The point is that even using the calculations of people who are refuting the NBA's claims of such great loss, there is still a huge loss for the NBA, such as the $120 million Larry Coon suggests they could have lost.
If 17 of the 30 NBA teams are losing money (as suggested by Nate Silver), then 17 NBA owners are better off without a season. If there is no season, no NBA owner makes or loses any money. Would you rather lose millions of dollars or lose nothing?
Of course, that is only true under the previous collective bargaining agreement (CBA). If the owners procured a more favorable CBA, then these owners would have a reason to push for a season.
Since they don't want a season unless the CBA shifts dramatically in their favor, they are going to keep pushing for a very favorable deal. They have no incentive to rush to reach a compromise in order for there to be a 2011-2012 NBA Season.
What about the other owners who are making money? The players are pushing for more revenue sharing. Revenue sharing is when the more profitable teams share money with the less profitable teams.
Do you think the owners with profitable teams want to rush to make a deal with more revenue sharing just so that they can have a season this year? Of course not. Plus, they are in the minority anyway.
If the players miss a full year of play, presumably that would drop their demand. The owners in debt would obviously give up a season of losing money in order to reach a more favorable deal for them.
The profitable owners would be willing to give up a season of profits in order to reach a deal that is not only more favorable for them, but also does not include revenue sharing.
Of course, the players could acquiesce to the owners' demands. However, the lure of foreign leagues and other factors make it unlikely that they would accept such an unfavorable deal for them.
With not enough incentive to reach an agreement for the owners or the players, we are in for a long, long lockout.
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