NFL Picks, Week 6: 6 Vegas Point Spreads and Over/Unders
Vegas released their line for Week 6 in the NFL, and there are some intriguing numbers. The Vegas spreads are predicated on the knowledge that they obtain each week. Injuries, being at home, and who’s hot are all things that help determine these lines.
When looking at the lines, some might think that the Vegas geniuses are wrong—but that is why we gamble. We feel that we have some sort of edge or knowledge to help us win.
This week I take a look at who I think would cover and make me some money against the gambling smart guys.
Lines from sportsbook.ag
Buffalo Bills @ NY Giants
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The Line: Bills +3, Giants -3, O/U 50
When I saw this line, I thought the odds makers were insane.
I know the Giants are coming off a disappointing loss and they will be at home, but the Bills are a legit team. The Giants are one of the most turnover prone teams, and the Bills capitalize on turnovers this season.
The Bills have a balanced offense and a play-making defense which should allow them to beat an up-and-down Giants team. Quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick is still looking to prove that he belongs in this league. The Giants biggest strength is their defensive line, but they won't be able to get to Fitzpatrick because he gets the ball out so fast. He has the capability to shred the Giants weak secondary, as the Giants won't be able to get to him.
This will be a very fun game to watch. The Bills will beat the Giants by a touchdown, and this game should be over 50 points.
Prediction: Bills 31, Giants 24
San Francisco 49ers @ Detroit Lions
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The Line: Lions -5, 49ers +5, O/U 46.5
Who would have thought the Lions and 49ers game this week would be the game to watch? The Lions are 5-0, and their team is playing great at all cylinders. Jim Harbaugh has the 49ers playing great defense and has taught quarterback Alex Smith to manage games.
Suh and the stout Lions defensive line will wreak havoc to Alex Smith and make it difficult for the offense to operate, just as it did against Cutler and the Bears. The 49ers will score most of their points through special teams and their defense.
Even though the two teams have solid defenses, I still believe that it will be a high scoring game, as each team is looking to prove that they are legit contenders.
The 49ers are also coming off of a great win against Tampa Bay, and the odds makers are giving them five points. The five points should be enough to cover in this game, as the two teams are equal.
I see this game as being high scoring, and the Lions will win.
Prediction: Lions 31, 49ers 28
New Orleans Saints @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
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The Line: Saints -4.5, Buccaneers +4.5, O/U 49
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers were absolutely decimated by the 49ers in Week 5. The 49ers destroyed this team by 45 points and really killed the confidence of this young team that could last for weeks.
This week they play New Orleans as -4.5 dogs at home. Although the Bucs are at home and looking to rebound, the offense is methodical and doesn’t get going until the fourth quarter. The Saints will be licking their chops to put up a lot of points.
Look for the Saints and Drew Brees to shoot the lights out, as the 4.5 points won’t be enough for the Buccaneers. This game will hit over 49 points, as the Saints will look to hit that number on their own.
Prediction: Saints 42, Buccaneers 24
Miami Dolphins @ NY Jets
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The Line: Jets -7, Dolphins +7, O/U 43
The Jets and Dolphins are two teams that are at a disarray. The Jets desperately need a win and are looking up to the Bills and Patriots in their division. The Dolphins are a team that is 0-4 and just lost their starting quarterback for the season.
Both teams have abysmal offense, but I see the Jets defense scoring and getting the offense in scoring position in this game. This is a Monday night prime-time game, and the Jets will be at home looking for a much needed win.
The seven points won’t be enough for the lowly Dolphins, who will be in the running for the Andrew Luck sweepstakes. Look for a low scoring game, where the Jets are doing most of it for under 43 points.
Prediction: Jets 27, Dolphins 13
Cleveland Browns @ Oakland Raiders
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The Line: Raiders -5.5, Browns +5.5, O/U 44.5
The Raiders come home to Oakland with heavy hearts and a great win for the late owner AL Davis. They are also the second best rushing team in the league and will be facing one of the worst rushing defenses in the league in the Cleveland Browns.
The Browns won’t be able to stop Darren McFadden and the Raiders strong ground game. Vegas has given the Browns 5.5 points, but it won’t be enough, as the Raiders should be huge favorite.
This is another game where the Raiders will honor Al Davis and play their hearts out. Also, did you hear that speech by coach Hugh Jackson? This team really loved their owner. This game will be under the 44.5, but the Raiders should win convincingly.
Prediction: Raiders 28, Browns 13
Houston Texans @ Baltimore Ravens
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The Line: Ravens -7.5, Texans +7.5, O/U 45
Vegas is giving the Texans 7.5 points, and rightfully so. They lost their stud wide receiver in Andre Johnson and their best defensive player in Mario Williams for the season. Even though the Texans have an explosive offense, the loss of Johnson will really hurt them.
The Ravens are at home and coming off of a bye week. It also seems as though Ray Rice is getting things rolling and will look to take advantage of the loss of Mario Williams. The Ravens defense will put the clamps down on Shaub and Foster to where the 7.5 points won’t be enough for the Texans. This game will be under the 44.5 number from Vegas.
Prediction: Ravens 24, Texans 10