NFL Picks Week 6: 5 Stone Cold Locks
Brandon Lang is one of the most well known sports handicappers in the gambling world and he capitalizes on it.
Lang charges clients anywhere from $1,995 for a year of service to $159 for seven days of his picks.
Like any tout you find on the Internet Lang can lose and win with the best of them. When the losses happen you get more excuses than a seven-year old boy who claims to be the best baseball player of all time, but has no problem passing out the blame when he strikes out and goes 0-for-5.
And when he piles up the win he is the same seven-year old brat who won't let you hear about his five home runs and yet fail to tell you they came in batting practice against a pitching machine.
You won't get any of that here.
The picks are free and they are backed by someone who won't whine and complain about brutal backdoor cover and who won't gloat about the rare easy cover.
There are plenty of people who give out free picks but they don't tell you how much to play other than it's a two star play or a strong play. Would it be too tough for someone to say how much they are going to lay on the table to give people some perspective as to how much they are playing on a game?
That's what you will also get here. The pot starts at $500 and the picks are made with the vig or juice in mind. The juice calls for you to lay $110 to win $100. Occasionally you will have to lay more or less. Since everyone should end up near a .500 record the books win in the long run.
If you have a question leave a comment and I'll try to explain it.
All lines are taken from sportsbook.com/bettingtrends.
Dallas -7.5 (-115) @. New England
Buy low and sell high.
Always keep that in mind when you look at lines.
Right now Dallas is at a low point and more specifically so is Tony Romo. Everyone talked about Romo throwing back-to-back pick sixes against the Detroit Lions two weeks ago as the Cowboys imploded and lost 34-30.
The Cowboys marched up and down the field against the public's darling to the tune of 434 yards.
A trip to New England is perfect for Dallas on many levels.
First, they get to face the worst defense in the league. The Patriots are surrendering 433 yards of offense per game according to NFL.com.
Second, the public will assume Romo is destined to fail in this spot, which means all of the pressure is off him. This places Romo in the perfect spot even for his biggest haters.
Third, the Patriots are coming off an emotional win against division rival New York Jets. Whenever a team comes off a win like that it is important to consider the letdown. This is not something common to the Patriots, but it is something that cannot be ignore.
And finally the Cowboys are coming off a bye. Dallas' staff has prepared for this game for two weeks while the Patriots focused purely on the Jets before turning their attention to the Cowboys. Jason Garrett will never outcoach Bill Belichick, but the extra time will help close the gap some.
It all adds up to the Cowboys staying within the number.
New England 34, Dallas 28
Risking $115 to win $100, Pot remaining $385
New York Giants -3 (-125) vs. Buffalo Bills
It was only one slide ago when the Patriots were mentioned as playing in a let-down situation. It wasn't considered too strong of a possibility, but it had to be acknowledged.
Following a huge 31-24 win over the Philadelphia Eagles the Buffalo Bills are in a similar spot.
Remember the last time the Bills won an emotional game at home and then had to go on the road? It was a couple weeks ago. Buffalo rallied to beat New England 34-31 on their homefield and then laid an egg in a 23-20 loss on the road against Cincinnati.
To make this situation even worse for Buffalo is the fact that New York is coming off a horrible loss to the Seattle Seahawks. Whenever a teams loses a bad game it is wise to watch out for them in the next game, especially if it is at home.
This puts New York in a spot that is too good to pass up.
New York Giants 37, Buffalo 20
Risking $125 to win $100. Pot remaining $260
Tampa Bay +4.5 (-110) vs. New Orleans
Josh Freeman and the Tampa Buccaneers were awful last week. This is good news for Tampa Bay supporters.
If Tampa played well last week the line would be closer to two or three. To get extra points in a divisional game with the home team looking to rebound gives the bettor a lot of value.
So what exactly is value?
It can be one of two things: It is something a bad gambler says when he places a bad bet and tries to justify it or it is a calculated move made because the gambler believes the points being laid of given favors one side.
In this case Tampa Bay benefits from the skewed line.
Tampa Bay was in a tough spot last week having played the Colts on Monday night and then traveling across the country on a short week. The blowout has people wondering if Tampa Bay is ready for this game and it's a fair response.
But similar to the Giants Tampa is coming off a bad loss and they get a chance for redemption at home.
Be careful with this approach and only apply to good teams. How many times do you think the Dolphins will lose only to get blown out again at home?
Tampa Bay 27, New Orleans 24
Risking $77 to win $70.
New York Jets -7.5 (-110) vs. Miami Dolphins
Speaking of the devil...
The Dolphins to travel to New York with Matt Moore under center for a Monday Night Football game against a Jets team in desperate need of a win.
The only thing from stopping a bigger bet is that half point and Mark Sanchez.
Never, ever under any circumstance buy a half point. If you buy the half point you will have to pay extra juice. And if you ever feel like you need to buy a half point it's not a good bet to take in the first place.
Take Brandon Lang for example. He told the public to buy a half point when Washington hosted Arizona earlier this year. It was his game of the year and yet he still felt the need to buy the half point.
Washington didn't cover and the half point cost Lang and his clients extra money.
It's rare to have a half point come into play enough to justify buying it every time the number reaches 7.5, or 3.5, both of which are key numbers when betting NFL games.
Sanchez can make any defense look good and the Dolphins are not exactly the worst in the league. Plus when you factor in Miami coming off the buy the game does not seem to be as great as the others on the list, but it is certainly worth playing.
New York Jets 20, Miami 10
Risking $55 to win $50, Pot Remaining $128
Atlanta -5 (-110) vs. Carolina
At 2-3 the Atlanta Falcons are in a must-win spot.
A game at home against the 1-4 Carolina Panthers is as close to perfect as they can get.
Yes, the Panthers are hanging close in some games, but look at the games where they hung around.
Two of the games were at home against the Saints and Packers. Two great teams, but they got them at home with each team more than likely under estimating what they were going up against.
The other team games come on the road against the Cardinals and Bears. Both teams are fairly bad and give up enough yardage to let any team hang around.
Carolina will finally go on the road to play a quality opponent.
Cam Newton looks like the future of the NFL at times and a confused rookie at other times. When looking at this game you need to consider how quickly this game can get away from Newton if he doesn't adjust to playing on the road against a good team.
Don't forget he found himself trailing by seven points or more against the Cardinals and Bears. Atlanta is a huge step up compared to those teams and can easily go up by more than the five points books are asking you to lay.
Atlanta 31, Carolina 17
Risking $55 to win $50, Pot Remaining $73