Game Preview
No. 1 Alabama Crimson Tide (12-0) vs. No. 4 Florida Gators (11-1)
The magnitude of this game is pretty simple:
Win, and you're playing in Miami on January 8th.
Lose, and you're playing January 2nd in the Sugar Bowl.
This is old guard SEC and the new school mixing it up once again. These two teams have met the most in SEC Championship Games, and have provided some classics. With the staggering amount of young talent on these two squads, this will not be the last of the Florida-Alabama matchups to come in the next few years.
Florida wins the game if....
1.) They run the perimeter early in the game.
The strength of Alabama's team defense is their defensive line and how they control the line of scrimmage. Tackle Terrance Cody is a mammoth in the middle, so running right at the Alabama defense will be a problem early on. Florida runs its spread option offense very well to the outside by breaking containment of defenses, and often cutting back against the grain.
Running the ball along the perimeter early from sideline to sideline, will wear down the big defensive line to the point that by the 3rd and 4th quarter, Florida can start to work the middle of the defense and rip off some bigger chunks of yardage.
A huge key to running the ball outside for Florida is the downfield blocking of both the receivers and the offensive line. Maurkice Pouncey is great at getting downfield and blocking in the secondary.
2.) They continue to answer the bell.
This Alabama team will be the toughest test the Gators will face all season. Both teams have led a bunch and have rarely trailed at all. Both teams have not had to face much adversity at all. Alabama won a game in overtime on the road, which is no small task. Florida lost a game at home to Ole Miss, a team that Alabama has beaten.
The adversity faced advantage though, goes to Florida. Two points:
The Ole Miss game
Yes, they lost. Florida trailed at three separate times in the game, and each time they came back to either tie the game, or take the lead; until the extra point that was blocked.
Following the Ole Miss game was the now famous promise by Tim Tebow, and a win over Arkansas, the season was still up in the air until:
The LSU game
Florida led the LSU game 20-0 with only 49 seconds left in the first half. Not too bad, until LSU answered with a touchdown drive before halftime, and then a 12 play, 80 yard touchdown drive to begin the second half.
LSU had seized the momentum of the game and sucked the life out of The Swamp. Any and all hopes for the rest of the season hinged on the Gators next drive, which they answered with a 67 yard touchdown drive, a three and out, and a 60 yard touchdown drive. Just like that, the lead was back to 20.
3.) The passing game is clicking.
Alabama's secondary really hasn't been tested at all this season. Rashad Johnson is their best defensive back, but the secondary can be thrown on. They did well against Matthew Stafford, and Jevan Snead is talented but is without surrounding talent like Stafford.
Tim Tebow has the best group of receivers to work with, regardless of whether Percy Harvin plays or not. Louis Murphy would start as a No. 1 WR at probably 100 other FBS schools and is their most consistent receiver. Riley Cooper and David Nelson have stepped up to make plays all season. Tight End Aaron Hernandez could be a major factor in the passing game.
Florida loses the game if....
1.) The defensive line gets manhandled up front.
The success of Alabama's team this season starts up front with their offensive line. Andre Smith and Antoine Caldwell will be playing on Sundays in the near future. Florida's defensive line is banged up, but they will empty the bench on Saturday, rotating in as many guys as possible to play the two inside line positions. Alabama's line has struggled at times this season, and Florida's defensive line needs to play its best to stop Alabama's running game.
2.) They buy into the hype.
For weeks now; the media, fans, analysts, etc. have been saying how great Florida is. Urban Meyer calls the hype surrounding his team "Florida nonsense." Florida is widely predicted to beat Alabama. Only a few of the media have said that Alabama will win. Florida was a 10 and a half point favorite at one point.
People need to stop and think. Alabama is undefeated for a reason. They are No. 1 for a reason. Alabama can beat Florida for a reason. They are a damn good football team.
Alabama should not be taken lightly, and I feel that most people outside of the Florida football program are taking Alabama lightly. It will be a sad day if the Gators take Alabama lightly.
The X-factors will be....
Florida quarterback Tim Tebow and Florida linebacker Brandon Spikes
These two players are the heartbeat of the team. Both players are more mature, they have grown into better leaders, and the rest of the team feeds off of both of them. Brandon Spikes probably wouldn't be having the type of season he is without Tim Tebow, and vice versa. Tim Tebow has elevated his game, and Spikes has as well. Both can take over and become one man wrecking crews on their respective side of the football.
Something to think about....
In the three years that Percy Harvin has been a Florida Gator, Florida is undefeated (4-0) when he misses a game completely. Florida has won by an average margin of 48.5 -18.5.
Game Prediction - Florida 35, Alabama 17
To see what Alabama Crimson Tide superfan Tim Croley has to say, click here.
27 comments Last one added 7 months ago — Leave a Comment
12 7 months ago
Thanks for a very objective read. I think this one will be won in the trenches, and I believe Alabama has the advantage there. If Alabama can keep Florida's offense off the field, and sustain long scoring drives, Bama will win. If not, it's going to be a long day for me.
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Michael Oleszek 7 months ago
I've watched Alabama more than a few times this year, and they are a very good football team. They are beatable, as is Florida. I agree that this game will be won in the trenches.
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Chris Smith 7 months ago
Michael, excellent read! As a Bama fan I appreciate the objectivity and insight of your article. I do agree with most of your observations, however, just like yourself I am putting my faith into my team. Tebow does scare me, and still remember how much of the Bama faithful had all but rolled out the red carpet for him, aniticipating his official committment to our school. Alas, it is going to be one of the best games of the season. And as you said, if Alabama can control the line of scrimmage it will be a really close game. Roll Tide and thank you for a good read. May the best team win and beat the socks off of the Big XII come January! (I just hope it is us!)
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Michael Oleszek 7 months ago
Unlike some Gator fans, I don't think that this game will be a runaway like the others. It will be a hard fought, hard hitting game that could go either way. I just feel that Florida will do more to win the game.
I too remember the entire Tim Tebow recruitment. The entire weight of the Gator Nation rested on Urban Meyer's recruitment of him. From the time Urban stepped of the plane in Florida, all he heard was "Are you going to recruit Tebow, you've gotta get Tebow." It was so crazy, that when Tim Tebow was a junior in high school, some fans I know were already wanting for him to come to Florida. It's insane.
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Franklin Crittenden 7 months ago
Michael, good article! Except for the score you are predicting. This will be a close game.
Nobody has scored more than 30 on Alabama and that was Georgia after the game was in the bag for Bama. If Florida scores 35 they will win and I will walk home from Atlanta!
Other than the score your article was very insightful.
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Michael Oleszek 7 months ago
Thanks for the feedback.
"If Florida scores 35 they will win and I will walk home from Atlanta!"
Wow. That's a bold statement. I would love to see this. You do know that it is only 68 hours by foot from Atlanta to Tuscaloosa?
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Franklin Crittenden 7 months ago
Michael, I live farther away than T-Town so I had better reconsider. If they score 35 I will walk all the way back to the Hotel! (about 3 blocks)
I see this as a 27-21 game, with 27 winning!
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Michael Oleszek 7 months ago
Wow, you think Florida's only going to win by 6?
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Timothy Croley 7 months ago
Michael, good observations. I don't see Florida scoring that many. They may win, and they may have been putting up huge numbers on everyone else, but I see this a little lower (as you can see by my prediction). Bama is giving up less than 12 points per game. 35 points would almost triple that! I went out there to say they would at least double it. If they score 35 I would be very surprised. Only three teams have scored more than 14 on us all year, and two of those games Bama had put it in cruise control just trying to hand on and win.
On the other side, Bama has been scoring a shade over 32 points per game. In fact, only once this year have they scored less than 20 points, and only four time have they scored less than thirty. So, They have been pretty consistent at hitting the 25+ point mark. I split the difference and said they would score a little less than average and give up more than twice as many as average. That, to me, would be a lot, which FL is very capable of doing.
But hey, I could be wrong. I have been before, and that's why they play the games. I predict a classic either way it goes!
Thanks for inviting me to work on this with you.
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Michael Oleszek 7 months ago
It could go either way. I will be really surprised if Florida scores 42 or more. I think they will get to 35, though it will be late in the game.
I've been a fan of Florida for a long time, and I've seen this team in person more than any other, and despite them losing a football game, I have never seen a better team. (Special emphasis on the word "team"). There is a massive difference from the opener against Hawai'i, and the game I just sat in the rain to watch.
I believe they'll win on Saturday.
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Nick The Only 7 months ago
Florida is only giving up 12 points per game.
I think that a team that scores 46 ppg will have a better chance at breaking 30 points against a defense that allows 12 ppg than a team that scores 32 ppg has at breaking 30 against a defense that allows just under 12 ppg.
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Justin Goar 7 months ago
as the fan of a team who has played both squads, i'm looking fwd to a great game however i think if florida is clicking, there isn't a team (bama, usc, oklahoma, etc) who can stop them.
they are that good.....when they want to be.
i can't think of a way to stop florida that involves just 11 college players on defense.
and as for florida's defense, if they keep their takeaway string going, the score that most are predicting is very likely.
in order for bama to win, they'll need to play mistake free ball control offense and limit UF's possessions. and keep bringing the same D they have all season except they'll have to force turnovers.
but tim tebow promised me they wouldn't lose again, and i believe him.
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Michael Oleszek 7 months ago
Justin,
Thanks for the feedback. I hope we did your concept justice.
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Justin Goar 7 months ago
you did, and then some.
you and tim did an awesome job!!
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Micah Green 7 months ago
He is rather trustworthy ain't he. lol
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Nick The Only 7 months ago
Great article. I see a bigger margin as a result of Florida jumping on Bama early and JPW throwing multiple interceptions in comeback attempt.
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Alex Smith 7 months ago
alabama will win by a blowout go tide
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Michael Oleszek 7 months ago
Thanks for your witty and insightful comment.
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Rick Cruz 7 months ago
If Florida does not win convincingly, Texas will remain #2 in the BCS standings and play OU for the national championship. Texas will remain ahead of Florida in the computer rankings no matter the score. So Florida must gain 40-50 points in the Harris and USA Today polls to overtake Texas. I don't think that happens without a convincing win.
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Nick The Only 7 months ago
No matter the score, Bama will lose at least 140 points in the coaches poll with a loss to Florida. Florida, as the team they beat them, would absorb the majority of those points with the rest moving evenly between Texas, USC, Oklahoma and maybe others. Bama currently has 58 first place votes. Oklahoma has 2, Texas has 0 and Florida has 1. If Florida beats Bama, Florida will get most of those votes, Texas will get a few and Oklahoma will get a few. Most voters who have Alabama #1 will believe that the 1-loss team that just beat them is now #1.
I'd expect Florida to grab at least 40 first place votes with a win over Bama. And Texas will have no more than 10 first place votes.
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Lou Vozza 7 months ago
Good article, but you forgot about Florida's special teams. Key to the game. Also, they happen to the have best player in the country on their team. He also just happens to play quarterback. No wonder they are favored by 10 points.
Anything can happen though. Alabama is an excellent football team, but they haven't overwhelmed anyone since the Georgia game.
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Michael Oleszek 7 months ago
I didn't forget. I just didn't put them in. Everybody knows about Tim Tebow. The Gators special teams isn't too far behind. I tried to look at this game objectively, and without too much simplicity.
Thanks for the feedback.
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mindi green 7 months ago
Good article. Witty and to the point. As a woman I haven't played to much football but I have screamed and sometimes cried ROLL TIDE since I could sit in my Daddys lap and watch games with him. Not sure if any of ya'll have played football but in my opinion no matter who is supposed to win a game you can throw alot of stats out the window. I believe its all about heart especially in a game hyped as much as this one. I have seen Alabama win plenty of games they were supposed to lose and vice vircsa. I think this will be a close game and I think it will be a dirty game, dirty as in whoever wins it won't be neat or a blow-away. Win or lose I will still be a devoted Alabama fan. I hope nobody gets hurt and on the off chance Fl wins and if they get to play for the NC I will pull for them cause it will be good for the SEC.. Here's to a great game!! ROLL TIDE!!
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Michael Oleszek 7 months ago
I have played a lot of football, and have watched a lot of football. I agree that in a game like this, you can throw stats out the window. Also like you, win or lose, I'm still going to support my team.
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Rick Cruz 7 months ago
Nick, to your comment about how many points Florida might pick up in the polls, it's the number of points they gain on Texas in the polls that affects their ability to jump to #2 in the overall BCS rankings. In the Harris Poll, Florida is number 2. If they beat Alabama, Florida will receive all of Alabama's first place votes and assuming they move to number 2 on everyone else's ballots, they pick up 204 points. If Alabama falls to number 5, they will give up 555 points. That means 351 points will be shared between OU, Texas and USC. I don't think those points will be shared evenly. OU will get 1/2 of those points by beating Missouri. Texas will get more than USC, so say Texas picks up 1/3, that leaves USC with 1/6. In the USA Today Poll, Florida is number 4. If they get all of Alabama's first place votes, and get second place votes behind Oklahoma on all other ballots, they will pick up 99 points. If Alabama falls to number 5, they will give up 301 points, leaving 202 points to be shared between OU, Texas and USC. Assuming they are shared 1/2, 1/3, and 1/6, respectively, Florida would need to move up one position on 4 of the 6 computer rankings and 2 positions on the other 2 computer rankings to tie Texas for number 2 in the overall BCS rankings. When OU beat OSU last week, they moved up 3 positions on one computer ranking, and 1 position on another, and they stayed the same on 4 computer rankings. So this late in the season, it's difficult to move up in computer rankings and four of the computer rankings specifically state that the final score does not affect their ranking, so no style points there.
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Jared Cox 7 months ago
All I can say is it's a shame this isn't the National Championship Game, these two teams are definitely the number 1 and number 2 in the nation. ROLL TIDE and GO SEC!!!
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Michael Oleszek 7 months ago
I couldn't agree more. Thanks for reading.
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