How do you like the matchup this Saturday at the Georgia Dome?
Most believe that Florida has the superior speed, but Alabama is the more powerful of the two. The national media seems to like Florida, while the Alabama faithful see a return to glory. The 2008 SEC Championship will be decided this weekend, but what about the years to come?
If this year has taught us anything, it is that one program in the SEC is established as a legitimate, perennial national power.
That program is Florida.
One program in the conference is enjoying a meteoric rise back to the ranks of the national elite.
That program is Alabama.
What about everyone else?
The fact that fans in the Southeast have had trouble admitting is that the SEC is suffering through a "down" year. Personally, I am not sure how much a "down" year could involve the conference championship game evolving into a virtual national semifinal, pitting the No. 1 team in the AP Poll against the No. 2.
However, the argument against the SEC is strengthened when one looks at the collective states of Auburn, Tennessee, LSU, and South Carolina.
Although I will decline to inform you how much pleasure it gives me to say it, Auburn is heading for a very dark period.
The in-state rival has returned to prominence, taking most (or all) of the local high-profile recruits. The coaching staff is in disarray, and the team has just concluded a 5-7 2008 campaign. If the Auburn Tigers were a stock, they would be listed with a giant "down" arrow next to the name.
This will not make me many friends either, but LSU has also peaked. Make whatever assumptions you like about who deserves the credit (I think you know where I stand on the subject), but the fact of the matter is that LSU can not maintain the talent level they have enjoyed in recent years.
Les Miles has done a respectable job, but most don't see him as an elite coach. Along with Auburn, I believe LSU was one of the two main benefactors of Alabama's recent descent into oblivion.
Unfortunately for both sets of Tigers, that period is over.
I believe that Arkansas and Ole Miss are programs on the rise. Both coaches led their teams to successful second halves of 2008, and are poised to improve further in 2009. I do not foresee this improvement as enough to compete in the West.
I feel certain that a 5-3 or maybe even a 6-2 record within the conference is possible for either (probably the Rebels sooner than the Hogs).
I do not see that being enough in the near future to make it to Atlanta. Mississippi State is the remaining team in the Western Division. They are light-years from being relevant.
In the West, that leaves Alabama. Fans in Auburn and Baton Rouge will disagree, but this is the team to beat for the foreseeable future.
Maybe I am allowing myself to become overly optimistic, but I see Alabama in Atlanta in four of the next five years.
Before you start the name calling, remember what they accomplished this year. This was an accomplishment attained with the fewest scholarship seniors in college football, mind you. This came on the heels of a nearly unanimously top-ranked recruiting class. Case closed.
On the other side of the fence, the Eastern Division seems just as clear. Tennessee is in a state of transition, welcoming a coach who may or may not have any clue as to how to run a program. Tennessee is replacing a coach with over 150 career wins with one with zero.
As an Alabama fan, let me tell you that there is a chance that this will not turn out well. We've seen it.
Georgia, while seemingly loaded with talent every year, continues to fold in high-profile games.
This trend has become particularly painful in recent memory. Opening 2008 as number one and as a preseason favorite to play for the national title, Georgia was then unceremoniously dumped on its home field (during a "blackout", no less) by Alabama, and then gave up 267 points to Florida. We won't go into what happened against Georgia Tech.
Unfortunately for Bulldog fans, this trait will catch up with you, and the talent level will fall.
Steve Spurrier has failed to make significant improvements to South Carolina's program. Many felt that when the "ol' ball coach" returned to the conference it would turn the Gamecocks into an instant contender. While they enjoyed brief flashes of promise, the team has slipped back into mediocrity, the most recent evidence being a whipping at the hands of a very average Clemson team.
Kentucky and Vanderbilt have both sustained nice runs in the last couple of years, culminated with rare bowl appearances by both. These were nice stories, but neither sniffed a division title. This fact will not change.
That leaves Florida. The cupboard, as they say, is stocked. Urban Meyer is a recruiting whiz, and his offense has shattered records all year. They have scored at least 30 points in every conference game, a mark that leaves me shaking my head. There is no legitimate threat to a Florida division dynasty.
Like Alabama, I see the Gators in Atlanta no fewer than four times in the next five years.
In the 16 years since the inception of the SEC Championship Game, Alabama and Florida have met five times. This year will be the sixth.
I think it is very feasible that by 2012, we will be previewing the 10th meeting of the two. If you are a SEC football fan, you might be best served by familiarizing yourself with this matchup.
Let the debate begin.
22 comments Last one added 7 months ago — Leave a Comment
GatorJon 7 months ago
Ingram, I could definitely get used to it, again.
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Colin Colverson 7 months ago
Good analysis, Ingram, I totally agree with you. This will be a fun rivalry, particularly in the upcoming years with home and home series.
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Ingram Worley 7 months ago
Thanks for the posts. I should probably have mentioned that if either of the coaches decides to bolt for South Bend, you may place this article in the dumpster. If this is Saban, said dumpster may be filled with my empty liquor bottles.
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Damon Wildman 7 months ago
LOL! That is funny I don't care who you are! Great read! If its Saban a lot of us will need help!
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Snu 7 months ago
Great article, Ingram. This is very insightful and lays out the current SEC power rankings superbly. As a Bama fan, I sure hope your prediction about the next few years is correct! Oh, and I think the chances of either Saban or Meyer taking the job at Notre Dame is 1 in [insert United States' national debt number].
P.S. - You wouldn't happen to be related to a Trey Worley would you?
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Ingram Worley 7 months ago
Thanks for reading! And, no, I don't think I'm related to Trey. Never know though, there's a bunch of us Worleys running around this state.
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Robert Matthews 7 months ago
Spurrier and Croom seemed to be in the same boat to me. If Spurrier could convince the talent to play at South Carolina then he could be a serious contender. Croom could have done the same at Miss. State. I dont see Spurrier lasting to much longer unless he can recruit and groom a QB. Like him or not there are not many coachs who can out coach the Ol Ball Coach especially when he has talented players.
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Brian Scott 7 months ago
Good article, but it is full of wishful thinking. As i recall, Sports Illustrated jumped the gun and declared "Bama is back" half way through the 2005 season. Two years later Shula got bounced.
I know you're excited about Auburn being on a slide, after all, who isn't? But you are getting way ahead of yourself by predicting that LSU won't be able to maintain it's current talent level. One look at the 2009 LSU recruiting class and the wheels come completely off of your wagon.
People also conveniently forget that LSU had no defensive coordinator and played a 3rd and 4th string quarterback this year but still won 7 games - and almost won 9. The mere fact that LSU had this much depth should scare anyone who seriously follows college football.
One fallacy many SEC fans have (besides thinking that the '08 season is indicative of a program slide at LSU) is that Miles won the BCS in '07 with Saban's recruits. Not true. The few Saban recruits that were left weren't even starters by the time he left LSU so they were never even coached by him. A more true statement is that Saban is undefeated with 100% of Shula's recruits.
No doubt this is a great season for Bama. A Sugar Bowl win can give you guys a 13-1 record which is unbelievable. But to say that Bama will be in the next 4 out of 5 SEC CG's is madness. Who's to say that Ole Miss had more than just a lucky season and may finally make it to Atlanta? Who's to say that LSU's unending talent pipeline won't put them back on the national scene in a year or 2?
Another thing you forget about Bama and Florida...JPW is gone after this year. No matter how talented his backup is, if LSU proved anything this year it was that experience is everything. And Tebow might not be back next year. Without Tebow and Harvin, Florida has some serious rebuilding to do as well.
Just a few things that will help you think a little more objectively in the future! Great job on the article though!
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Ingram Worley 7 months ago
Brian-thanks for reading. I had a feeling that the LSU contingent would have the hardest time with this. Hey, I admire your loyalty. Louisiana is certainly a talent-rich state. And I don't think LSU will fall all the way to a Gerry DiNardo type gutter. But, sorry, Les Miles is Les Miles. He will cost you games (if he hasn't already). He simply does not stack up against the elite in the conference.
Oh, and thanks for the advice on "thinking a lttle more objectively". I'll try to keep that in mind next time I'm writing an EDITORIAL.
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Brian Scott 7 months ago
Even in an editorial you have to be somewhat reasonable to be taken serioulsy - that's all I was saying. Don't freak out. But I find it funny that a year ago Les Miles was considered to be one of the top caoches in the nation by consensus - now he is an anchor that will drag the program down (not a consensus).
Miles did lose games for us this year - no question. But one thing I'm grateful for is that he has never lost an out of conference game he wasn't supposed to lose. Saban got schooled by UAB and LaMonroe! I'll take losing to Ole Miss and Arky every year if it means we never lose to schools like that!
And yes, Louisiana is a talent rich state. But LSU also takes it's pick of the best talent in TX, MS, AL, and FL as well. Right now the #1 recruit in TX and the #1 recruit in MS are both committed to LSU. These are two of many examples of why your assertion that LSU can't maintain it's talent level is a losing argument no matter how you slice it.
My only advice is, enjoy your season while you can. Bama loses many key seniors next year and will be in the same boat as LSU was in this year. Julio will be the team captain next year - hopefully for y'all he's around 3 more years!
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Chris Smith 7 months ago
No Brian, I believe he is right. After all, Sport's Illustrated were the ones jumping the gun during the only good Shula year. But, being that we were still suffering from scholarship restrictions in those years, that simply is not the case now. This past February, all of our scholarship sanctions were lifted. And during this day and age, it ain't the rich kids who are playing football and needing a scolarship to go to school (this is possibly a poor analagy, but hopefully you see what I mean). You WILL see a decline in Auburn recruiting, and possibly see a decline in Urban Meyer's talent pool also. And we have 16 freshmen playing this year. Also, as much numbers as JPW has put up in his collegiate career... McElroy is a much better QB.... just wait and see. Now, for the game this weekend. Roll Tide boys and give'em Hell!
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Jeff Prutsman 7 months ago
Brian, I'm a Gator. While I am fully prepared to accept that Alabama is back on the basis of great coaching, I still see LSU as a marquee program with a very unfortunate sequence of circumstances at quarterback. Give them a minimally consistent quarterback who doesn't throw an interception on every other series and Alabama is not undefeated this year.
I don't know what's in the water in Louisiana, but they seem to consistently come up with lanky, superb athletes whose uniforms never quite seem to fit. They are always the most athletic opponent the Gators face. All they are missing is a QB. I'm not confident that Lee will develop. He's a gunslinger, which is admirable, but he may never learn to read. On the other hand, some great high school QB somewhere will look at LSU's situation and see the obvious opportunity. They will be back sooner than later.
I disagree with you about the Gators having to rebuild. One of their great advantages now is that they are two deep with very good players at almost every position. And three to four deep at running back and wide receiver. Teebow completed passes to seven different Gators during the South Carolina game. And none of the ESPN talking heads seem to watch Florida enough to realize that the Gators can essentially field a fresh defensive line and secondary on every other series if they choose to. Alabama will not wear them down.
Finally, I just don't see Teebow turning pro yet. Unless he feels a burning need to fund a new hospital in the Philippines next year, I just don't see him chasing the money. He's not that guy, he loves to play the game, and he has a chance to literally make college football history if he plays his senior year.
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Brian Scott 7 months ago
Chris-
I think we will see Auburn hang tough in the west with a new coach. My whole point in responding to the smidget of this article that was much more wishful thinking than solid analysis. Overall Ingram did a bang up job tough, and he should be commended for a great article.
After reading your comments, though, I'm not sure exactly how you disagree with me.
Good luck at the game.
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Mike Muratore 7 months ago
This is a great match-up, and the re-invention of the Alabama program is great for college football. Note for the Big 12, if you are re-examining your tie breakers... just ask the SEC. They always produce a fair, high quality match up. This year is perfect... absolutely the best teams in the conference, maybe in the country. Could be called the defacto National Title game. I hate them both... out of jealousy... but it's going to be a great game that I'm looking forward to watching. Out of my exhaustion with everything Tebow... ROLL TIDE!
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Lou Vozza 7 months ago
Everybody's always one quarterback away for being good again. LSU, Tennessee, South Carolina, Auburn - all had the same problem - no QB. Look what happened to Kentucky once Woodson left.
Give Saban credit for winning as much as he has with a mediocrity like Wilson at the helm.
Tebow won't win a Heisman this year because the QB position is so critical the coaches didn't want him to get hurt running.
Florida wins on Saturday, special teams and Superman make the difference in a close on.
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J Gator 7 months ago
I could definitely get used to this matchup and I hope your predictions for Florida are spot on.
Someone mentioned earlier that Florida will have some serious rebuilding to do after Tebow and Harvin are gone...
after watching our backup QB, John Brantley, finish up our last 8 games, I have to say that I'm feeling pretty good about him. Definitely looks like he'll live up to the hype he had coming out of high school.
100% correct when you say that Urban has this team stocked up big time!
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GatorJon 7 months ago
I don't think there is any reason not to think Alabama and Florida would be the consensus picks to win their divisions in 2009.
If ESPN.com is correct then Bama only lists 11 seniors on their roster, which seems crazy. Florida has 20 seniors. Both are "young" teams with considerable talent waiting in the wings.
I think Tebow will stay. Harvin WR/RB and Spikes MLB are likely gone, IMHO.
The seniors in the 2-deep on the offense are Murphy WR, Trautwein OT, Tartt OG, Casey TE. Harvin and Murphy would leave the biggest void, but there is tons of talent behind them.
There are no seniors that I am aware of in the 2-deep on the defensive side of the ball someone would have to step up big at mike if Spikes goes early.
I have not been too impressed with Brantly of late, but he was running the offense with the two's in most situations I think. Tebow must stay!
Does anybody have the lowdown on the Bama situation for next year? The loss of JPW will certainly be big and a new starting QB no matter how good is likely to cost you at least one game.
I agree in general with Brian's assessment of the LSU situation. I expect LSU to be much better next year. Whether they will be good enough to seriously challenge Bama for the SEC West remains to be seen.
Ole Miss looks to be on the rise.
I expect Auburn will get their crap together.
I am curious to see what Petrino can do at Arky.
No idea what to think about Miss State.
Georgia's biggest issue is whether Stafford and Moreno stay or go. My guess is Stafford stays and Moreno goes, but who the hell knows. If Stafford stays and they figure out how to play defense again then Georgia could be much improved next year.
I think Spurrier has found his QB at South Carolina: Garcia. Will it be enough to make some serious noise in the East? I don't know.
Tennessee? Reconstruction project.
Kentucky? I like what Rich Brooks has done with that program. I think they will be better next year.
Vandy? Not sure what to think.
I agree with Lou's assessment of the QB situation in the SEC.
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Chris Smith 7 months ago
doh! to add to my comment above ( i am at work and at the moment my attention is all over the place) I will go ahead and put my typing finger in my eye (foot in mouth?) and admit I did not read your whole comment before responding. Really, though... I am not a blow-hard fan, but I am realistic, and I do have a good amount of optimism for the upcoming years.... we are finally back up to Full scholarship potential and Saban is a recruiting master. Also, last year's LSU team was the last of Saban's recruits.... as hard as LSU fought Alabama, they seem to have lost spirit in the rest of the season..... anyways, I hope I dont get flamed here, and please know in advance that I am not wishing LSU, Auburn, and Tennessee..... umm, well scratch Tennessee (i hate fulmer AND the Vols in general)any ill will... anyhow, good article....
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Chris Smith 7 months ago
GatorJon, I think Georgia's biggest problem is discipline. If Richt could get his talnet to play fundamental football with perfection, less penalities... they should have stayed in the top ten this season.... gosh, they shoot themselves in the foot.
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Geaux 58 03 07 7 months ago
I think you and the rest of the Gumps should think more about the game at hand and less about who's going to win the West in 2013. This is the kind of stuff that makes people hate Alabama fans, the ASSUMPTION that you're going to dominate from here forward, and everyone is going to lay down for you. You've had a great year. enjoy it. But maybe.....just MAYBE try to have a little more respect for the rest of the conference. This kind of attitude is exactly the opposite of what your coach preaches.
But, out of curiosity, why stop at 4 of the next 5? Is there any reason to believe that Alabama will lose a game over the next 5 years? After all, you're undefeated with Shula's players, and Saban is bringing in great classes. It's hard for me to even imagine a scenario in which you could possibly lose a game!
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Ingram Worley 7 months ago
Geaux-Thanks for reading and for the post!
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Mike Flax 7 months ago
Most of Alabama's starters might be Shula recruits, but they're certainly playing better for Saban than they ever did (or would have) for Mike Shula. There isn't a player in the Tide locker room who would tell you he trained/practiced/studied harder when Shula was the coach. Not one.
Also, are Julio Jones, Mark Ingram, Kareem Jackson, Rolando McClain, D'Onta Hightower, Terrence Cody, Josh Chapman, and Mark Barron Shula's players?
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