The Backdoor Cover: Week 5 NFL Picks

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The Backdoor Cover: Week 5 NFL Picks

Sometimes things just don’t go our way. No one likes that guy that complains about his bad beat at the poker table. Or the guy that never stops whining about how he has the most points scored against him in fantasy football this year. Worse, the guy who tells you about how his sure-fire bet winner was snatched by the jaws of defeat.

But COME ON – Last week was bad enough for a season’s worth of backdoor covers against us. It just shouldn’t happen like that.

Philadelphia is up by 20 AT HOME against the Niners. Miss two field goals and on the San Francisco ONE, Ronnie Brown fumbles the ball in one of the stupidest plays I’ve ever witnessed. No team should let Alex Smith score 21 unanswered to win the game.

Arizona up by 1o with 5 minutes to play in the game. Not only did we have to endure two touchdowns by the Giants to win the game, but a play Ray Charles would have called a fumble on a catch by Victor Cruz.

Atlanta up 27-7 in the third quarter allows the hapless Seahawks to backdoor cover despite dominating the time of possesion 40 minutes to 20 minutes. Everyone knows you don’t give Tarvaris Jackson a chance to get back in the game because he always takes advantage. /sarcasm

The best for last – Dallas up 27-3 in the third quarter to lose the game outright. Excruciating to watch this unfold, like a Greek tragedy you had put money on for some reason.

I realize this was a flukey weekend. It is not going to happen this week and I should actually be on the right side of a game I’m not supposed to win because of it. No more ordering Wahhburgers and french cries for this guy. Nothing but blue skies and double rainbows. That’s why this week is drawing the inspiration of Road Trip. Unleash the fury! Let’s get to it.

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OAKLAND +6 at Houston – I was Oakland the first three games of the season when they covered but not against New England last week. Jumping back on that train this week. A lot of points to work with as a team that has a dominant running game and enough passing to keep defenses honest. Not to mention a solid defense that can slow down Foster. This line tells me that Oakland is still underrated and I’m going to back them until they show me otherwise.

ATLANTA +6 vs. Green Bay – Not going to be popular but until Atlanta doesn’t show up for a home game, I can’t pass up getting six points. You know they will be aiming to make a statement on what should be a fantastic Sunday Night football game. With SNF’s flex scheduling, how terrible must MNF feel when everyone makes fun of their matchups? Green Bay is tough to go against but they’ve been on cruise control, they have to come down at some point. Like the Oakland game, this is too many points to an explosive team.

CHICAGO +5.5 at Detroit – This will be the third week in a row I’ve been on the other side of the Lions. This is a big MNF spot for them but they have a ways to go to be a decent favorite against a bi-polar Bears team. Detroit was thoroughly outplayed til the late fourth quarter last week, but those looking at the final score won’t realize it. The Bears defense is legit and should not allow the Lions to run wild.

CAROLINA +6.5 vs New Orleans – An upset bid I can get behind. A lot of picks this week where the underdog is getting between 5 and 7 points, just too many in my opinion. Feels like they want you to feel safe taking teams that only have to win by a touchdown. We know from last week that Cam Newton isn’t scared to cover your bet on the last play of the game. NEVER A BAD QUALITY to have in an underdog. Think the Panthers are looking to make a statement about being improved by competing with the Saints who had a difficult time putting away the Jaguars last week.

PITTSBURGH -3 vs Tennessee – The hate has gone too far. I can’t warn enough about don’t bury the Steelers this season. Only a three point favorite versus an average Tennessee team? At home? And everyone is backing the Titans? This is madness. I could be way off on this one but somehow, I don’t think so. I’ll be shocked if the Steelers don’t win this game. If you have a rally towel left, this week is the time to wave it.

TAMPA BAY +2.5 at San Francisco – Easy analysis on this one. I believe the team getting points is going to win the game. Not scared of the short week or travel. Tampa Bay is the better team and San Francisco just got a gift at the Eagles last week. Not going to over think this one. If Alex Smith beats me two weeks in a row, I will have to reassess my handicapping process.

College Suggestions: LSU, Texas, Auburn, Tennessee, Rutgers, Wyoming

SUICIDE PICK: We’ve made it through the first four games of the season unscathed. This week is tough. There is only one game that jumps off the board as being “safe” and the latest elimination consensus shows them being picked at a 70% rate. Do we go with the popular pick or find something else, hoping the rest of the pool gets knocked out? I decided to be a lemming and go with the NEW YORK GIANTS. Can I see them laying an egg and losing? of course. However, looking at their schedule this is our only chance to use them so we have to take it. Good luck.


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