AccuScore is an expert betting system that highlights weekly Expert Picks with the best chance for success. AccuScore uses historical performance and current rosters to run thousands of simulations in order to calculate individual player stat lines and probable game outcomes.
1. Aaron Rodgers (GB): The man with the belt is top dog yet again. Rodgers out did himself last week, dismantling the Broncos by throwing for 408 yards and four touchdowns. His next opponent is Atlanta. The Falcons have not played up to expectations and are in the bottom third of the league when it comes to defending the pass. Rodgers will have a great game. Projected fantasy points: 25.5.
2. Cam Newton (CAR): If you read last week’s top 5 list then you know I totally called Cam Newton having a great game. In addition to throwing for 374 yards and a touchdown, he ran for two more. The rookie has played well the past four weeks and will continue that in week 5 against the New Orleans Saints. Against a mediocre passing defense and while playing at home, Cam Newton should have another great week. Projected fantasy points: 21.2.
3. Michael Vick (PHI): The Eagles lost again last week, but not because Vick didn’t play well. His 416 yards passing, two passing touchdowns, and 75 yards rushing weren’t enough to win, but enough to make fantasy owners very happy. On the road against the Buffalo Bills on Sunday, Vick will continue to shine. The Bills defense is not good, ranked 25th in both passing and rushing yards allowed per game. The Eagles badly need a win, and Vick is going to give them one. Projected fantasy points: 20.8.
4. Drew Brees (NO): Unlike Vick, Brees didn’t put up great numbers in week 4, but he got the win. Brees doubled his interception total on the year and only scored one touchdown. This weekend the Saints hit the road to face the Panthers, a team that has done a good job of handling opposing quarterbacks that aren’t the elite. The Panthers gave up 30 to Aaron Rodgers and the Packers, so expect the comparable Brees to go for roughly 300 yards and two touchdowns. Projected fantasy points: 17.5.
5. Eli Manning (NYG): The younger Manning rounds out the top five. Manning has been playing at a really high level all year, with a quarterback passer rating of 105.6, and there is little evidence that he won’t continue to play well against the Seattle Seahawks. Seattle is a middle of the pack defensive team, which should be enough to prevent him from having a record breaking day, but not enough to keep him out of the top 5. Projected fantasy points: 16.3.
1. Arian Foster (HOU): Last year’s rushing leader was back in action last week against the Pittsburgh Steelers. On just 30 carries, the star back ran for 155 yards and a touchdown, which was a delight to fantasy owners everywhere. This week he’ll be facing the Oakland Raiders, who have struggled defensively this year. Expect Foster to have another big game as he makes up for the games he missed. Projected fantasy points: 19.9.
2. Adrian Peterson (MIN): The Vikings keep on losing despite having the best running back in football. This week Peterson will be playing at home against the Arizona Cardinals. Peterson has played much better at home this year, scoring all three of his touchdowns in the dome. He’s forecasted to have a good fantasy day of over 100 yards rushing and one rushing touchdown. Projected fantasy points: 18.3.
3. Darren McFadden (OAK): Against a Bill Belichick defense specifically designed to stop him, Darren McFadden still came away with over 100 all-purpose yards. Behind the hottest running back in the game, the Raiders remain the best running team heading into this week’s contest against the Houston Texans. Houston’s run defense is ranked 18th in the league in opponent rushing yards and hasn’t faced a back as explosive as McFadden. This week could very easily be a great one for fantasy owners. Projected fantasy points: 17.7.
4. LeSean McCoy (PHI): McCoy did not have a good game against the Niners and even left the game early after injuring himself while pass blocking. The injury doesn’t appear to be that serious, so he should be good to go. On Sunday he will be facing the run defense of the Buffalo Bills, which has struggled this year and gives up nearly 130 yards per game. McCoy is just the explosive back that can make the Bills pay. Projected fantasy points: 15.8.
5. Fred Jackson (BUF): McCoy’s counterpart this Sunday, Fred Jackson, rounds out the top 5. Jackson has scored a touchdown in each of the last three games, although his yardage has seen a decline. Luckily for fantasy owners, the Eagles have one of the worst run defenses in the league, giving up 139.5 yards per game on the ground. Expect the Bills to run the ball early and often. Projected fantasy points: 13.9.
Not top 5, but could be: This week’s running back that did not make the list but should be on everyone’s radar is Chicago’s Matt Forte. Forte is coming off his best game of the year, rushing for an incredible 205 yards and a touchdown. I don’t expect him to repeat that performance, but I think he will outperform predictions this Sunday against the Detroit Lions. The Lions give up 113 rushing yards per game, and I expect Forte to keep on rolling. Projected fantasy points: 13.6.
1. Calvin Johnson (DET): All hail Megatron! Right now, Johnson is the best wide receiver in football, and it’s not even close. The guy has scored two touchdowns in every game this season, even in week two against the Chiefs when he finished with only 29 receiving yards. The Lions opponent his weekend is the Chicago Bears. The Bears defense has been awful, especially against the pass. Expect Matt Stafford and Johnson to connect for plenty of yardage and even more touchdowns. Projected fantasy points: 13.0
2. Greg Jennings (GB): Greg Jennings had another great game last week, putting the team on his back for 103 yards receiving and a touchdown. Aaron Rodger’s favorite receiver has played well all season, so expect that to continue against the Atlanta Falcons. The Falcons have struggled through four games, especially at defending againt the pass. The Packers offense will continue to roll, and Jennings will fill up the stat sheet. Projected fantasy points: 12.8.
3. Vincent Jackson (SD): The top receiver for the San Diego Chargers takes the third spot in the top 5. Jackson had his second game of the year last week, catching three passes for 108 yards and a touchdown. On Sunday he will line up against the Denver Broncos secondary. The Broncos pass defense is mediocre at best, which means Jackson should have plenty of opportunities to put points on the board. Projected fantasy points: 12.8.
4. Wes Welker (NE): I know, it’s odd to have Welker this low on the list considering what he’s done this season. Welker’s stat line after four weeks is absolutely ridiculous. He has caught 40 balls for 616 yards and five touchdowns. This weekend though he will be facing a Jets defense that is the second best in the league at defending against the pass, which probably explains him being fourth on this list. The Patriots offense is potent enough that Welker will still get plenty of balls thrown his way, and will have another great fantasy week. Projected fantasy points: 12.3.
5. Hakeem Nicks (NYG): Nicks had his best game of the year last week, catching 10 passes for 162 yards and a touchdown. Eli Manning’s favorite target is projected to have another good week against the Seattle Seahawks. Seattle is weakest against the pass, so expect Manning to be firing throughout the game, with Nicks on the end of most of those passes. Projected fantasy points: 11.8.
Not top 5, but could be: This week’s wide receiver that just missed the cut is Kansas City’s Dwayne Bowe. The Chiefs have struggled this season, but I expect them to really start breaking out of the early funk this weekend. Bowe is the best receiver on the team and is coming off his best game of the year, where he finished with 107 receiving yards and a touchdown. The Chiefs play a winless Colts team that is doing its best without Peyton Manning. I expect Kansas City to play well, and for Bowe to have a big game. Projected fantasy points: 11.6.
1. Jermichael Finley (GB): The Packers tight end takes the top spot this week. Although Finley is coming off his worst fantasy week of the year, things look good in week 5 against a Falcons defense that gives up 275.5 yards per game in the air. His quarterback Aaron Rodgers will undoubtedly have a great game, so expect Finley to be a part of that success. Projected fantasy points: 10.9.
2. Tony Gonzalez (ATL): On the other sidelines from Finley is this week’s second best tight end, Tony Gonzalez. Like the Falcons, the Packers have not done well against the pass, and are currently the second worst pass defense in terms of yards per game in the league. The Falcons are going to have to beat the Packers in the air, which means more points for Gonzalez. Projected fantasy points: 9.0.
3. Rob Gronkowski (NE): Number 87 for the Patriots is second on the team in receptions. Last week was his first bad fantasy week of the year, catching only one ball. In the previous three games he scored five touchdowns. The Patriots play the New York Jets this weekend, which should be a challenge for the Pats offense. However, Tom Brady always finds a way, and I have no doubts Gronkowski will be the target of plenty of passes. Projected fantasy points: 8.7.
4. Owen Daniels (HOU): Like Gronkowski, Daniels his second on his team in receptions. He has scored a touchdown in each of the last three games, and will likely continue that streak against the Oakland Raiders. The Raiders have struggled defensively, so expect a game full of offense. Projected fantasy points: 8.4.
5. Jimmy Graham (NO): With Marques Colston getting injured early in the year, Jimmy Graham has stepped up and become Drew Brees’ favorite target. So far this season Graham has caught 24 passes for 367 yards and three touchdowns. The Saints face a poor Panthers defense on Sunday. I expect Brees and Graham to continue to dismantle opposing defenses. Projected fantasy points: 8.4.
Not top 5, but could be: This week’s tight end that is not on the list but should be on everyone’s radar is Tampa Bay’s Kellen Winslow. Winslow has not put up very impressive numbers this year. He currently hovers around 40 receiving yards per game and hasn’t caught a touchdown, which means he’s due. The Bucs opponents on Sunday are the Niners. San Francisco does not have a great pass defense, so I’m thinking that Winslow will have a break out game and exceed predictions. Projected fantasy points: 6.8.