SMU vs. TCU Upset Alert: Horned Frogs Trail Mustangs at Halftime

Kyle VassaloFeatured ColumnistOctober 1, 2011

SALT LAKE CITY, UT - NOVEMBER 6: Ed Wesley #34 of the TCU Horned Frogs cuts back during a game against the Utah Utes during the first half of an NCAA football game November 6, 2010 at Rice-Eccles Stadium in Salt Lake City, Utah. (Photo by George Frey/Getty Images)
George Frey/Getty Images

What's Gone Wrong?

Once again, TCU finds themselves on upset alert. The Horned Frogs have no answer for J.J. McDermott and the Mustangs' passing game, and have been completely caught off guard by SMU.

TCU is obviously not the same team they were a season ago, as they are struggling through the air. Casey Pachell's completion percentage isn't an issue, but his inability to get the ball down the field has TCU missing Andy Dalton.

Ed Wesley is picking up the slack and Matthew Tucker managed to get in the end zone to finally get some points on the board. TCU has shown some life after being down 17-0, but they have to play better in the second half if they want to muster a comeback victory.

What's at Stake?

Lose, and TCU isn't just out of the Top 25 this week, but they won't be returning this season. They've worked their way back into the good graces of voters after losing to Baylor in their opener, but TCU won't see the Top 25 again if they fall today.

SMU will pick up a huge win if they are able to close this game out in the second half. They lost their opener to Texas A&M and will be turning heads if they can pull this off. They have some work to do before they can break into the rankings, but this is the signature win they need to get some recognition.

Upset Potential: 6/10

SMU has gone on the road and come out roaring, and for that they should be commended. Even so, TCU's offense won't be held in check in the second half. Their halftime adjustments are going to make it tough on SMU, and once the Horned Frogs gain some steam, they can score points in a hurry.

SMU still has a great chance to pull off an upset, but it's impossible to write off TCU at this point.

How Will the Voters React?

The voters are going to lose faith in TCU if they go down today. They gave TCU the benefit of the doubt, as Baylor is a promising team, but are likely to ignore TCU until the Horned Frogs can prove they are capable of competing against decent teams.

On the flip side, this would force voters to take notice of what's going on at SMU. It's not going to sway everyone, but SMU has a chance to run the table after this and will undoubtedly end up in the rankings if they are able to do so. This game is step one.

Will TCU Come Back?

It's definitely possible. They have to get the pass game going and get back to the explosive offense that has made them so successful. If the offense doesn't come out with a sense of urgency in the second half this game is over.

SMU has lost a bit of the momentum, but they have a ton of confidence and a seven-point lead going into the second half. TCU has to come out firing in the second half if they want to win, and they certainly have the means to do so.

Who Benefits Most from TCU's Collapse?

The entire Mountain West conference. TCU looks less and less scary as the season progresses, and teams with an upcoming matchup with TCU face a much less daunting task than what they initially thought when the season began. TCU is still one of the elite teams in the conference, but they've shown more than once that they aren't immune to an upset.