The Backdoor Cover: Week 4 NFL Picks
Anyone with money on last week’s Green Bay at Chicago game would like to have a word with you. At the end of the fourth quarter, the Bears returned a punt for a touchdown in one of the coolest special teams plays I’ve ever seen. But ah, the phantom flag makes an appearance. Most people dissected the play and thought, that it was terrible a bad call was made and moved on with their lives to watch Terra Nova.
But those of us who hang on spreads and totals know better. If that Bear touchdown counts, then not only do the Packers not cover but more importantly, the game itself goes OVER. Simply put, Shenanigans.
I’m not saying that all games are fixed, I believe the referees influence a game when they have the chance. They control what they can control. And no, it isn’t as blatant as the NBA which is a whole different betting animal that I would prefer not poke.
This week’s movie sponsor photo is She’s Out of My League, a family favorite. It’s meant to highlight the fact that we will be going heavy anti-public this week with some bad teams hoping to find that hot blonde that resembles money. For the record, I don’t know what “sharps” play nor do I pretend to know. I try to align myself with whatever side Vegas needs to cover which is the opposite of recreational bettors. If you are a sharp and want to inform me of inside information, please follow me on twitter so I can then follow you to victory.
Before last week’s games I tweeted that I was taking every first half UNDER in the early games based on last week’s column stats. The result was extremely positive going 6-2.
PHILADELPHIA – 9 vs. San Fran – What is that? I took the Eagles last week as a huge favorite and they lost outright? No one is backing them this week with Vick iffy and Maclin doubtful? Well then, we’ll just take our chances. I mean what are the odds that they don’t cover 9 at home this week again? You are right, that’s a decent chance. Still, I have a good feeling that San Fran won’t be able to run the ball, will be behind and Alex Smith is no Eli Manning who is no Tom Brady who is no Ryan Fitzpatrick.
CINCINNATI +3 vs. Buffalo – Speaking of everyone’s favorite Harvard alum, I’m picking them to lose in a monumental letdown game this week. After hinting around they could beat New England in last week’s column, they actually made me look good pulling the upset. I’m not sure how the Bengals will do it, but nearly every trend and situational stat says that they will. Make me look smart computers.
CLEVELAND – 1 vs. Tennessee – Is it just me or did Drew Carey’s career nose-dive after getting skinny? I say this because I’m worried about Jonah Hill. He has lost a ton of weight (good for him!) but people don’t want to watch funny thin people. The more lbs, the better. Cleveland wins a snorefest at Cleveland this week.
DALLAS – 1 vs. Detroit – Someone has got to put a halt to the Detroit love machine. I hate picking against a team that is so fun to watch and just all around good, but Dallas at home to win over a 3-0 Detroit team is too good to pass up. Both Dallas and Cleveland are tiny home favorites that no one is taking. I can’t see both of them losing.
ST. LOUIS +2 vs. Washington – A good spot for St. Louis to break into the win column. St. Louis has been a massive failure thus far but Rex Grossman morphing into Old Rex might be just the ticket. The Redskins are also on a short week. Yes, I realize that so are the Cowboys that I picked to win but I prefer only using situational stats when they fit my line of thinking.
ARIZONA + 1.5 vs. NY Giants – Several small lines this week. Basically, I think the Giants won one they shouldn’t have at Philly last week and will lose one they shouldn’t at Zona who is coming off a bad loss to Seattle. I do think a lot of points will be scored however in what should be an exciting game.
ATLANTA – 4.5 vs. Seattle – The one pick that doesn’t fit my criteria this week. I believe Atlanta will roll this week. For a team that had such high aspirations, starting 1-3 is unacceptable. There is no better place to open up the playbook than a Seattle club who is good against the run, but below average against the pass. Matt Ryan & Co. should be able to move it at will. Let’s hope at least.
College Suggestions: Maryland, Georgia Tech, Colorado State, Baylor, Arkansas, Iowa State (LW went 5-2)
SUICIDE PICK: We are 3-0 and still going strong. To this point, we’ve been picking the biggest mismatch on the board. I’m going to switch things up slightly here and use some strategy. This week’s selection is TAMPA BAY. They are a big favorite at home which is a good criteria, but I don’t see the chance to use them again with the sporadic way they have been playing. I think we need to hit them up now and save a team like Green Bay for another day. Good luck.
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