AccuScore is an expert betting system that highlights weekly Expert Picks with the best chance for success. AccuScore uses historical performance and current rosters to run thousands of simulations in order to calculate individual player stat lines and probable game outcomes.
1. Ray Rice (BAL): This week’s top projected running back is Ray Rice. Rice has played well to start the season, racking up three touchdowns, rushing and receiving. This week he will be facing the tough New York Jets defense. Last Sunday the Raiders showed how to run against the Jets, so look for the Ravens to pick up on that and for Rice to have a solid game. Projected fantasy points: 18.3.
2. LeGarrette Blount (TB): LeGarrette Blount is in the top five for the first time this season. Blount started the season off slowly, mostly a result of not getting many carries, but played well last week. This Sunday, the Bucs play the Colts in Tampa Bay. Expect Blount to have a breakout game against a poor Indianapolis rushing defense. Projected fantasy points: 18.0.
3. Adrian Peterson (MIN): The third best rushing team in the league’s top running back, Adrian Peterson, is third on the list. Peterson is averaging 5.1 yards per carry and already has three touchdowns under his belt. In week 4, he will be up against the Kansas City Chiefs, whose rushing defense is currently ranked 28th in the league. Last week the Chiefs gave up 98 yards and two touchdowns to Chargers running back Ryan Matthews. Expect more from Peterson. Projected fantasy points: 17.0.
4. Maurice Jones-Drew (JAC): Jones-Drew continues to excel as the workhorse of the Jaguars. He’s already over 300 yards rushing on the season with 4.7 yards per carry. The Jaguars make it a priority to establish the running game, and will continue to do so this weekend against the Saints. Expect Jones-Drew to get plenty of carries and the yardage that comes with it. Projected fantasy points: 15.9.
5. Darren McFadden (OAK): Here is the stat line from the top running back in the top running offense: 393 yards rushing, 6.4 yards per carry, three rushing touchdowns, and 11 receptions for 84 yards and a touchdown. Not bad right? This week he will be up against the New England Patriots. The Patriots are a good defensive team against the rush, but so were the Jets and look how that ended. Projected fantasy points: 15.7.
Not Top 5, but could be: This week’s running back who is not in the top 5 but should be on everyone’s radar is Philadelphia’s LeSean McCoy. Michael Vick may be having some problems, but McCoy has been nothing short of great. Last week against the Giants, the Eagles running back collected 128 yards on the ground with one touchdown. His next opponent, the San Francisco 49ers, is ranked third in run defense, but McCoy shouldn’t be slowed down. He’s dangerous whether he’s running between the tackles or catching passes out in the flat. Projected fantast points: 16.5.
1. Calvin Johnson (DET): Johnson is the number one projected wide receiver for week 4, as he should be. Johnson has caught two touchdowns every week this season, not to mention the 225 yards that went with them. This week he is up against the Dallas Cowboys defense, which is ranked 12th in opposing passing yards. Expect Johnson not to be slowed down by the Dallas secondary. Projected fantasy points: 15.1.
2. Wes Welker (NE): To put it simply, Wes Welker’s week 3 performance against the Bills was ridiculous. The veteran caught 16 passes for 217 yards and two touchdowns. While he may not duplicate those numbers this week, he will surely have success against the Oakland Raiders defense, which has struggled against the pass with an opponent passing yards ranking of 28th. Projected fantasy points: 14.9.
3. Greg Jennings (GB): Aaron Rodgers’ favorite target is third on the list. Jennings is coming off a solid game against the Bears, catching nine passes for 119 yards. This week the Packers play the Broncos, a team that has defended the pass well so far this season but has yet to play against a recent pro-bowl quarterback. Expect the Green Bay offense to continue to put up points, and for Jennings to play an important role. Projected fantasy points: 12.4.
4. Vincent Jackson (SD): Jackson and the Chargers under-performed last week against the Chiefs. The wide receiver caught five passes for only 63 yards. Jackson will turn things around this week as he will be facing a Miami Dolphins defense that is ranked close to last in opponent passing yards. Expect Jackson and the Chargers offense to put up good numbers before their week 5 bye. Projected fantasy points: 12.3.
5. Larry Fitzgerald (ARI): Although he’s not putting up the same numbers he did with Kurt Warner behind center, Larry Fitzgerald is still one of the best wide receivers in football. The past two weeks he has average around 90 receiving yards and a touchdown per game. This week he will face the New York Giants defense. The Giants have had trouble defending the pass, so look for Fitzgerald to play well. Projected fantasy points: 11.3.
Not Top 5, but could be: This week’s wide receiver that isn’t in the top five but should be on everyone’s radar is Pittsburgh’s Mike Wallace. Wallace has racked up over 100 yards receiving in every game this season, and is coming off a 144 yard game against the Indianapolis Colts. He is Ben Roethlisberger’s favorite target and is bound to get plenty of opportunities this week against the Texans. Projected fantasy points: 10.8.
1. Rob Gronkowski (NE): The top projected tight end of the week is Rob Gronkowski. Tom Brady has called his number plenty of times this season as number 87 already has 281 receiving yards and five touchdowns. Expect Brady and Gronkowski to connect throughout the day against Oakland in week 4. Projected fantasy points: 10.8.
2. Jason Witten (DAL): Witten takes the two spot the week. He is Tony Romo’s favorite target and the team leader in receptions. When the Cowboys have success in the passing game it’s usually because Romo is finding Witten open down the middle. Against the Detroit Lions this weekend, Witten will again be the Cowboy’s biggest receiving threat. Projected fantasy points: 10.7.
3. Jermichael Finley (GB): Jermichael Finley made fantasy owners very happy last week as he caught seven passes for 85 yards and three touchdowns. The tight end has the second most completions on the team behind Greg Jennings, which means in the week four game against the Denver Broncos Finley should see plenty of passes come his way. Projected fantasy points: 10.6.
4. Jimmy Graham (NO): Graham had his best game of the year last week against the Texans. The Saints tight end caught four passes for 100 yards and a touchdown. This weekend he will be up against the Jaguars, who are a very good defensive team. The Saints offense should be able to overcome thanks to star quarterback Drew Brees and weapons like Jimmy Graham. Projected fantasy points: 8.0.
5. Tony Gonzalez (ATL): The future hall of famer is coming off a somewhat disappointing game where he caught only two balls for 18 yards, but scored a touchdown. Gonzalez won’t be held to that few yards in the future, as he’s averaging roughly 80 receiving yards per game. On Sunday the tight end lines up against the Seattle Seahawks defensive line. The Seahawks are a decent defensive team, so expect slightly fewer than eight fantasy points from Tony. Projected fantasy points: 7.9.
Not Top 5, but could be: This week’s tight end that didn’t make the top five but should be on everyone’s radar is Tampa Bay’s Kellen Winslow. Winslow’s numbers took a dip last week in a low scoring game against the Falcons. He is second on the team in receptions, and will likely get plenty of good opportunities this week against the Colts. The Colts have struggled defensively, and Winslow is a talented tight end that could have his first big game of the year. Projected fantasy points: 6.0.