2008 Civil War Oregon at Oregon State, Part IV: The Game & Prediction

Larry Sigurdson by
Larry Sigurdson
Larry Sigurdson

Larry Sigurdson

Correspondent

12 articles written
241 comments written
27 fans

Correspondent Written on November 26, 2008

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OREGON OFFENSE

Passing: 190.5 yards per game (seventh in Pac-10)

Rushing: 268.1 yards per game (first in Pac-10)

Total Offense: 458.6 ypg (first in Pac-10)

Scoring: 39.8 points per game (first in Pac-10, 11th in the nation)

 

OREGON STATE OFFENSE

Passing: 242.7 yards per game (first in Pac-10)

Rushing: 171.5 yards per game (fourth in Pac-10)

Total Offense: 414.2 ypg (third in Pac-10)

Scoring: 32.4 ppg (fourth in the Pac-10)

 

Offense

Oregon's offense will most likely be run by Jeremiah Masoli. The sophomore QB is reported to be at full strength after receiving accolades for his performance to date. Justin Roper is now healthy and ready to return to the field if needed.

Jeremiah Johnson and LeGarrette Blount give Oregon one of the premier running back tandems in the country. The Ducks lead the Pac-10 and are sixth in NCAA Division I-A in rushing, averaging 268.1 yards per game. Oregon has rushed for at least 200 yards in 10 of its 11 games.

Terrence Scott (40-533-4) leads the Ducks in receiving, while Jeff Maehl (32-341-4) is a possession receiver. Scott and Maehl are also rushing options for Oregon. Chris Harper (9-122-2) moved from QB to slot receiver at midseason and is becoming an effective surprise weapon.

Tight end Ed Dickson (31-398-2) was quiet for several games but emerged in the Arizona game with seven catches.

Center Max Unger leads an outstanding O-line. Starting at left tackle his first two seasons, he made a successful transition to center. Fenuki Tupou (6'6", 330 pounds) is a load at left tackle. Guards Mark Lewis and Bo Thran and tackle C.E. Kaiser round out the starting lineup. This season, Oregon has only allowed 15 sacks, tied for the second fewest in the Pac-10.

Oregon State was led by Lyle Moevao through the first nine games of the season. Moevao is a dual-threat, blue-collar signal collar. He is just as effective with his arm as he is with his feet. He can also throw a crushing block on a fly sweep.  For the Civil War, Moevao is questionable since suffering a shoulder injury in the Arizona State game two weeks ago.

Sean Canfield will likely start in the QB position on Saturday. Canfield is an effective backup.

Also likely to be out is national standout tailback Jacquizz "Quizz" Rodgers. Quizz leads the Pac-10 in rushing (1,253 yards, 4.8 ypc, 11 touchdowns) and is ranked 12th nationally at 113.9 ypg.

Filling for Rodgers are Ryan McCants (282 yards, two TDs) and Jeremy Francis (85 yards, one TD). Flanker James Rodgers (Quizz's brother) (352 yards, 9.0 ypc, five TDs) is dangerous on the fly sweep. 

The Beavers do an excellent job of protecting their QB, in allowing only 11 sacks, the fewest in the Pac-10. The OSU O-line has Alex Linnenkohl at center, Gregg Peat, right guard, Andy Levitre, left tackle, and Adam Speer, left guard. Tavita Thompson returned to the right tackle position after a one-year NCAA suspension. Mike Remmers splits time with Thompson.

 

OREGON DEFENSE                                        OREGON STATE DEFENSE

Passing Defense: 253.5 ypg (10th in Pac-10)    177.6 ypg (fourth in Pac-10)
Rushing Defense:  122.2 ypg (third in Pac-10)    112.0 ypg (second in Pac-10)
Total Defense: 375.7 ypg (seventh in Pac-10)     289.6 ypg (second in Pac-10, 13th in nation)
Scoring Defense: 27.1 ppg (sixth in Pac-10)      21.4 ppg (tied for second in Pac-10)
Sacks: 33 (second in Pac-10, ninth in nation)   31 (third in Pac-10, tied for 14th in nation)
Interceptions: 12 (tied for fourth in Pac-10)     12 (tied for fourth in Pac-10)
The strength of Oregon's front four is at end with Nick Reed and Will Tukuafu. Reed leads the Pac-10 with 10 sacks, and Tukuafu has seven. Reed and Tukuafu also rank two-three in the Pac-10 in tackles for loss (16.5 and 16). Tackles Ra-Shon Harris and Cole Linehan are solid run-stuffers. Michael Speed, Kenny Rowe, and Tonio Celotto provide depth.
Collectively, the Beavers have an outstanding defensive front. The leaders are ends Slade Norris (7.5 sacks, 15 tackles for loss) and Victor Butler (7.5 sacks, 16 tackles for loss). Butler is third in the Pac-10 in both categories.
Junior college transfer Stephen Paea (4.5 sacks) is a key addition at tackle. Tackle Pernell Booth is a load at 302 pounds. Kevin Frahm, Sioeli Nau, Ben Terry, and Brennan Olander are in the front four rotation. 

GAME TIME: 4 p.m., PST, Saturday
WHERE: Reser Stadium, Corvallis, Oregon (OSU)
TICKETS: Game is sold out (Has been for months)
Television: Versus Network, national broadcast
Weather forecast: 53 degrees and cloudy

AUTHOR'S PREDICTION
This Civil War has every element for motivating both teams to play harder than either team has played all year (not that either team hasn't played hard). The Beavers haven't been to the Rose Bowl in 43 years. Oregon is seeking revenge for having lost at home last year and having their BCS ambitions ruined.
The teams are evenly matched on both sides of the ball and have equal winning records coming into the game. The three losses for both Ducks and Beavers were at critical moments, and each team has their explanations for why they lost what, when. The end result is 8-3 all.
This game has the earmarks of being a low-scoring, close game from beginning to end, with the likelihood of going into double overtime. Both Oregon and Oregon State run options of the Spread Offense. Both teams are capable of making lightning fast strikes and burn off 65, 75, or 90-yards in less than 45 seconds.
Equally impressive are the defenses. Neither team has sole ownership of the Pac-10 records for this season.
The team with the final possession is the likely winner. Field goals, two-point conversions, and special teams will likely provide the definitive edge. Look for trick plays and deception from both teams. This will be one wild game.
On paper the Ducks have a slight edge. Saturday we'll see which team does a better job of finding the other's weak spots.

FINAL SCORE: Oregon Ducks 31 Oregon State Beavers 28

(POLL Answer: Six of the 10 Civil War ties were 0-0, including the infamous 1983 Toilet Bowl. The remaining four were: 1913 10-10, 1914 3-3, 1956 14-14 and 1960 14-14.

Vote Now! - Author Poll

Of the 10 Civil War games ending in a tie, how many were 0-0?

  • A. All 10
  • B. Five
  • C. Six of 10
  • D. Three of 10
  • E. One, the 1983 "Toilet Bowl"
vote to see results
Results - Author Poll

Of the 10 Civil War games ending in a tie, how many were 0-0?

  • A. All 10

    5.3%

  • B. Five

    8.0%

  • C. Six of 10

    12.0%

  • D. Three of 10

    16.0%

  • E. One, the 1983 "Toilet Bowl"

    58.7%
  • Total votes: 75
(5)
...
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CORVALLIS, OR - NOVEMBER 29: Ed Dickson #83 of the Oregon Ducks runs for a touchdown against Brandon Hughes #36 of the Oregon State Beavers at Reser Stadium on November 29, 2008 in Corvalis, Oregon. (Photo by Jonathan Ferrey/Getty Images)

Oregon-Oregon State: A Civil War For the Roses

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written on November 26, 2008 Preview/Prediction

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