NFL Predictions Week 3: San Diego Chargers vs. Kansas City Chiefs

Peter KleissAnalyst IISeptember 23, 2011

SAN DIEGO - DECEMBER 12:  Quarterback Philip Rivers #17 of the San Diego Chargers throws a pass against the Kansas City Chiefs at Qualcomm Stadium on December 12, 2010 in San Diego, California.  The Chargers won 31-0.  (Photo by Stephen Dunn/Getty Images)
Stephen Dunn/Getty Images

If ever there was a game that the San Diego Chargers were destined to win, it would be this week’s matchup versus the Kansas City Chiefs.  

It won’t matter how awful the Chargers play; it won’t matter how many mistakes they make. No matter how terrible the Chargers' performance is this Sunday at Qualcomm Stadium, the Chiefs will play worse. There is simply no scenario in existence where the Bolts come away from this game with a loss.

You want proof?

The Chiefs have the worst scoring defense in the league, giving up an average of 44.5 points per game. That is two full touchdowns, 14 points, more than the next-worse team, the Atlanta Falcons.


Kansas City has developed new ways to give up points that have never been tried before in the NFL.

Okay, so maybe they met up with a couple of the NFL’s best teams and we can excuse those two crushing defeats.

Not on your life.


The Chiefs lost to the Buffalo Bills (41-7) and the Detroit Lions (48-3) who were a combined 10-22 last season. Both of those teams have Kansas City to thank for what the pundits call their "newfound resurgence."

Not enough proof yet?

Alright, how about the fact that the Chargers are woeful at stopping the run?

No worries there as Jamaal Charles is out for the season with a torn ACL. The Chiefs' vaunted running game will have to suffice with backups instead of the league’s second-leading rusher from 2010.

What about Kansas City’s passing attack, you say?

What passing attack?

They are last in the league with an unimpressive 105.5 yards per game. Compare that to the Chargers' 351 yards per game—fourth-best in the league. Simply put, the Chiefs have no offense.

Not convinced yet?

Take a look at down efficiency. The Chargers lead the league in total 1st downs (60) and 3rd-down conversion percentage (64). The Chiefs are dead last in both categories with 25 1st downs and a 20.8 3rd-down conversion percentage. The Bolts are going to rack up a three-to-one ratio in time of possession.

I know what you are thinking: “All that is fine and dandy, but what about turnovers? They have killed the Chargers this year.”

Sure the Bolts have made plenty of blunders coughing up the football five times so far. Still, the Chiefs have easily beaten that number with nine turnovers of their own. Heck, even Kansas City head coach Todd Haley is considered a bigger lug nut by their fans than the Chargers' favorite pin cushion, Norv Turner.

SAN DIEGO - DECEMBER 12:  Running back Darren Sproles #43 of the San Diego Chargers carries the ball against defensive end Glenn Dorsey #72 of the Kansas City Chiefs at Qualcomm Stadium on December 12, 2010 in San Diego, California.  the Chargers won 31-0
Stephen Dunn/Getty Images

In every single way, the Chargers will dominate the Chiefs this weekend. Whether its offense, defense, special teams, turnovers or even boneheaded coaching, all roads lead to a Chargers blowout.

The oddsmakers are giving Kansas City a spread of 14.5 points; they should be getting 30. Take the Chargers, give the points and don’t look back.

San Diego is likely to score 40 points all by themselves, so with a line of 44.5, take the over as well.

Normally an inter-division rivalry would indicate a closer score. Just remember that the Chargers blew the Chiefs out the last time they met by a score of 31-0, when quarterback Brodie Croyle played for an injured Matt Cassel. The Chiefs are far more vulnerable this time around.