Four Keys To Winning the English Premier League

Simon Williams by Senior Analyst Written on November 26, 2008
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Well, looking at the fixtures, Manchester United will be playing catch up because of World Club Championship, meaning that the games they do play over Christmas are essential.

They visit Spurs and Stoke, with Middlesbrough and Chelsea at home, and four wins might be the only way to keep in the title race, or a minimum of three wins and a draw, depending on other results of course.

Chelsea face a tricky looking Christmas schedule. They face two London derbies, with West Ham (H) and Fulham (A), as well as tough away trips to Everton and Manchester United. West Brom at the Bridge is an easier looking test in the middle.

Liverpool have an easier Christmas on paper. Arsenal (A) is huge game on the 21st December, but trips to Stoke and Newcastle, and home games against Hull and Bolton give plenty of opportunity for points.

Arsenal need a storming Christmas to keep in contention, but they will have to do it the hard way. As well as Liverpool at the Emirates, they face Aston Villa (A) on Boxing Day. They kick off Christmas with a trip to Middlesbrough, and end with easier looking home games against Bolton and Portsmouth.

Most likely to light up Christmas: Liverpool

Could get by: Chelsea

Potential Christmas stuffing: Arsenal and Man Utd

 

The Final Countdown

So if only a killer Christmas will do, what about the final flourish, do you need to win eight in a row, or can you stumble over the finishing line?

Well the truth is, you can stumble over the line. In the last five seasons, none of the title winners have won more than five of their last eight matches, and in both 2003-2004 (Arsenal) and 2006-2007 (Man Utd), the Champions won only four of their last eight games.

The last three seasons have seen five defeats in the last 24 games of the Champions. Of course some of this can be put down to taking the foot off of the gas, after the title has already been won, but its still the case that games 31-38 are amongst the hardest to win, primarily because every opponent is either fighting for their lives, or playing without a care in the world. Both of these can be deadly.

Many people do not think that Liverpool will be able to last the pace if it comes down to the final knockings this season, but there is a pattern to how they have finished the season under Benitez.

Much will depend on whether they are still in the Champions League. The only season they have not still been in the Champions League under him come April was 2005-2006, and in that season they finished sensationally, winning all 8 of their final matches.

It could well take a relatively early Champions League exit for Liverpool to win the Premier League this season, but only time will tell.

Manchester United are traditionally considered the strong finishers, but in truth in the last 5 seasons they do not have a great record in the last eight games. Their best haul being last seasons run of five wins, two draws and one defeat. If they are still playing catch up come game 31, that finish is not likely to be enough to win the title.

Chelsea and Arsenal both usually finish with a good final run-in, its likely to be too much to make up for Arsenal this time round but Chelsea will be confident going in to the last eight matches if they are leading the way or close to the top.

Vote Now! - Author Poll

Who Will Win The 2008-2009 EPL Title?

  • Chelsea
  • Liverpool
  • Manchester United
  • Arsenal
  • Couldn't Care Less
vote to see results
Results - Author Poll

Who Will Win The 2008-2009 EPL Title?

  • Chelsea

    18.5%
  • Liverpool

    42.6%
  • Manchester United

    25.9%
  • Arsenal

    7.4%
  • Couldn't Care Less

    5.6%
  • Total votes: 54
(3)
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written on November 26, 2008 Preview/Prediction

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