In the modern game is easy to rule people out of the title race before it has even really started. Every defeat or draw is treated like its the end of the world, and proof that this or that club are not capable of winning the title.
With this in mind, I have analysed the last five Premier League seasons to see what it really takes to win the Premier League title, and what it means for the current title race.
Home Form
To win the Premier League title, your home form must be nothing less than magnificent.
In the last five seasons, the title winners have averaged a sensational 50 points from 19 home games. Chelsea in 2005-2006 managed an almost perfect record of 18 wins and one draw, a huge total of 55 points.
The lowest winning total from the last five years came in both 2004-2005 (Arsenal) and 2006-2007 (Man Utd) with 47 points from the 57 available, still a pretty impressive set of stats.
Amazingly in five years worth of matches, the Champions have only lost three home games between them, with Man Utd losing two in 2006-2007, and one in 2007-2008. For three seasons the Champions did not lose a home league game at all.
Chelsea are fully expected to challenge for the title this season, but they need to improve their home form to do so based on the last five years averages. The Blues have already dropped points in four of seven matches. Chelsea won the title despite dropping points in five home games in 2004-2005, the most matches in which points have been dropped by the Champions.
With 12 home games left this term, Chelsea must realistically win 10 of them at least to be in with a chance of the title. They might well need to win all 12.
Liverpool and Manchester United both have title winning home form so far this term, United dropping points just once, on the opening day, and Liverpool stuttering just twice. Both clubs do have all of their toughest home tests to come though, and can't afford to rest on their laurels. Liverpool might well rue slip-ups against lowly Stoke and Fulham, but only time will tell.
With two home defeats, Arsenal have already lost as many home games as any of the Champions of the last five5 seasons. With Chelsea and Liverpool still to visit the Emirates, defeat in either game or any other will realistically be the final nail in the coffin of their title chances.
Most likely to have title winning home form: Man Utd
Still in contention: Liverpool
In the Last Chance Saloon: Chelsea and Arsenal
Away Form
Only Chelsea in 2004-2005 won the title with better away form than home form, and the Blues will be buoyed by that, and their current away form, as they might need a repeat to win the title.
In winning the title last season, Man Utd only won 10 of 19 away games, with 35 points being the lowest total from the last five seasons. Fortunately for United that away stuttering was coupled with awesome home form, as it was for Chelsea in 2005-2006 as they won the title with only 36 points on the road.
That season saw Chelsea record five defeats on their travels, the highest number of the Champions. In total, the Champions have been beaten 13 times in five seasons, but 12 of those have come in the last three seasons.
8 Comments
Loading more comments...
This comment and all replies have been deleted This comment has been deleted Undo delete