The Backdoor Cover: Week 3 NFL Picks
It’s been that easy the first two weeks in which OVERS are 23-8. I looked more closely and the trend appears to be FOURTH QUARTER scoring. So far, NFL teams average 15 points in the final quarter.
It’s clear the oddsmakers are reacting because the past two weeks, including this week, totals are higher than ever starting the week. I’m not comfortable taking UNDERS now except like last week where we pick and choose a game or two. I believe the value now lies in FIRST HALF UNDERS. As an experiment, I may take every NFL first half under Sunday to see how it works. I see no way I won’t at least break even. Remember what happened in the movie Casino when the money to the bosses started drying up. Bad things.
Before this week’s selections, here’s a list of things that have been irritating me lately. Telling me how stacked your fantasy team is in your eight team league which leads to “Should I pick up Mike Tolbert off of waivers?” type questions. Adam Sandler movies. Specifically his new movie Jack and Jill. People who tell me they just discovered Mumford and Sons. Along those same lines, people who tell me they just found the funniest show called Modern Family. People who complain about people who talk about college football alignment. Hugh Jackman. People who write on their work food in the common refrigerator about please don’t take me. People who complain about Facebook changes when they want to preserve the current layout which is just an earlier change that they probably also complained about. People in public/work bathrooms who think it’s okay to talk while they are in the stall. Dallas wide receivers who get tackled on the one-yard line when they need a touchdown to cover.
Any other suggestions, send them or share your own picks with me at twitter.
PHILADELPHIA -9 vs. New York Giants – Did anyone actually watch the MNF game? It was terrible football but more importantly, the Giants got lucky to not just win but win big. For the life of me, I can’t figure out why 3/4′s of the money is on the Giants in this game. I realize it’s a large number and Vick is iffy, but he’ll play. I feel good backing the Eagles especially with new MLB Jamar Chaney in place. #birdgang
OAKLAND +3.5 vs. New York Jets – I used to watch Weeds before it got really weird and I always pictured the Mexican gangs in it to be Raider fans. Not that all Raider fans are Mexican or gang members, but just some. I’ve been on Oakland every game this year and this great spot against an overrated Jets team is no reason to stop. Someone will win by a field goal. I don’t care who. I love gambling.
CINCINNATI -2.5 vs. San Francisco – Here’s a game that you’ll want to TIVO to preserve for your children’s children. Just a hunch here that Andy Dalton is ready to have a coming out party of sorts. And his name sounds like dolphin which makes me wonder if anyone is going to go see that new Morgan Freeman dolphin movie. I saw Free Willy in theaters growing up so I’m assuming some kids will I guess.
ST. LOUIS RAMS +4 vs. Baltimore – Here’s where my picks get a bit scary. We picked against Baltimore last week in a similar spot where everyone took the Ravens. Can the 0-2 Rams rise to the occasion and keep it close? I don’t know but with the trends working against BAL I do now want to be on that side.
MINNESOTA +3.5 vs. Detroit – Now the picks are getting really bad. Detroit is arguably the hottest team in the league, a media darling and a new found bettors favorite. The Vikings are a punchline who don’t know how to get their second best player involved in the offense. I have a feeling the football gods will bring the Lions back to earth. I wouldn’t blame you for skipping this one though, it’s not for the faint of heart.
BUFFALO +9 vs. New England – Finally, an underdog that can score. Armed with my new-found man crush David Nelson, I’m taking the Bills to not lose by double digits. Considering how well teams have moved the ball against the New England secondary, this seems entirely possible. It wouldn’t surprise me if Buffalo actually won this game.
CIN/SF UNDER 40.5 – Two picks on the CIN/SF game! Edge of your seat excitement here at the Backdoor Cover. You are going to be that guy at Buffalo Wild Wings watching the tv in the corner of this game by yourself rooting for punts. Nothing about this game seems high scoring to me. I feel it’s the best UNDER on the board this week for the entire game.
MIA/CLE OVER 41 - Last week I successfully picked MIA in the UNDER. This week I feel they are going to bring more firepower against the Browns. I’m not lying, it’s going to hurt my feelings with all these overs if I pick an OVER finally that doesn’t hit. Do not let me down Colt McCoy.
College Suggestions: Georgia, LSU, North Texas, Georgia Tech, Florida, Miami Ohio, Illinois
For the second straight week, we aren’t going to out-think ourselves. Let’s go with the largest spread on the board. SAN DIEGO CHARGERS hosting the Kansas City Chiefs. If the Chargers lose this I hope Norv Turner is fired on the spot. PREVIOUS PICKS: Houston/Pittsburgh
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