College Football's Bubble Watch: The Final Week

Sweating It Out

Pac-10 (10 teams)

Contracts for seven bowls (70 percent)

Teams In (5)—USC, Oregon, California, Oregon State, Arizona

Bubble Teams (1)

Arizona St. (5-6)

ASU schedule (3-4)— @ Arizona

Games of the Week: ASU @ Arizona

Conclusion: ASU has to win in Tucson.

The Pac-10 was clearly hurt by the Mountain West losses. Stanford, ASU and UCLA lost to TCU, UNLV and BYU respectively. ASU does count a win against FCS Northern Arizona. Should the Pac-10 consider a watered-down non-conference schedule more like the SEC, ACC, or Big 12?

One bubble team is eliminated this weekend. The winner must win their final game to qualify. Both have tough final games. Revenue may well be down this year with one less team. 

2007-08 Bowls, Profit: $17,647,012 (six teams)

Average per conference team: $1.76 million

SEC (12 teams)

Contracts for nine bowls (75 percent)

Teams In (8)—Georgia, Florida, Alabama, Kentucky, South Carolina, LSU, Mississippi, Vanderbilt

Bubble Teams (0)

Auburn schedule (2-6)
Non-conference (3-1): Wins—La-Monroe, S. Miss, Tenn-Martin; Loss—West Virginia

Games of the Week:  

Conclusion: Auburn's non-conference wins over weak opponents are keeping them in consideration. Auburn winning at Bryant-Denny against undefeated and number one Alabama is improbable. But with such a poor conference record, should the Tigers be bowl-eligible?  The SEC will likely have one less team than last year—revenue down—and one less team than contracted for.

2007-08 Bowls, Profit: $28,991,720 (nine teams)

Average per conference team: $2.42 million

Big 12 (12 teams)

Contracts for nine bowls (75 percent)

Teams In (7)—Texas, Oklahoma, Missouri, Texas Tech, Oklahoma State, Kansas, Nebraska

Bubble Teams (0)

Games of the Week: 

Conclusion: Hot seat. The Buffs will have to win in Lincoln against a Bo Pelini-coached Cornhusker team that has won four of its last five and who lost to Texas Tech by only six.

2007-08 Bowls, Profit: $21,706,427 (eight teams)

Average per conference team: $1.81 million

Bets are that the Big 12 will have one less team than last year.

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